Wild turkey program FY2020 population monitoring

Georgia's Wild Turkey Program

Wild Turkey Program FY2020
Population Monitoring
Turkey Production Index Survey DNR personnel recorded observations while performing field duties during June, July and August.
Hens/observer is an index that tracks the female segment of the population, while poults/hen is used as a measure of relative quality of the reproductive season and is tracked long-term. Hens/observer values have fluctuated around 3.1 since 1999. The hens/observer value for 2019 was 3.1 which was on par with previous 4-year average (3.1), but a 15% increase over 2018 (2.7). Poults/hen values have fluctuated around 1.5 since 2003 after a precipitous decline over the preceding two decades. In 2019, 1.5 poults/hen were observed, slightly below the 1.6 poults/hen observed in 2018, but on par with the 4-year average of 1.5 poults/hen.

Hens Seen/Observer

Hens Seen/Observer 1981-2019

4

3.5

3

2.5

2

1.5

Hens/Observer

1

4-year Average

0.5

0

1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Poults/Hen

Poults/Hen 1978-2019

5

4.5

4

Poults per hen

3.5

3

4-year Average

2.5

2

1.5

1

0.5

0

Grant Opportunity

1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Georgia's Wild Turkey Program

Wild Turkey Program FY2020
Population Monitoring

Turkey Hunting Population Index Survey
The turkey hunting population is indexed through cooperators reporting their daily hunting statistics throughout the turkey hunting season. Turkeys seen/hour is a statewide hunting population index and gobblers heard/hour is an index that tracks the male segment of the population.
The turkeys seen/hour value for 2020 was 0.42, which was 12% lower than the previous 4-year average of 0.47 as well as the 2019 value of 0.47. The gobblers heard/hour value for 2020 was 0.38, on par with the 4-year average of 0.38 and slightly above the 2019 value of 0.36.
While the 4-year average of gobblers heard/hour has remained steady the past 4 years, the 4-year average of turkeys seen/hour is the lowest value that has been observed in over 30 years.

Turkeys Seen/Hour

Turkeys Seen/Hour 1979-2020
0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

Turkeys Seen/Hour

0.2

4-year Average

0.1

0

1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Gobblers Heard/Hour

Gobblers Heard/Hour 1979-2020
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3 Gobblers Heard/HR
0.2 4-year Average
0.1
0
Grant Opportunity

1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Wild Turkey Program FY2020
Population Monitoring

Georgia's Wild Turkey Program

Turkey Hunting Population Index Prediction Model
This model uses predictors from the 2019 Production Index Survey (poults/observer) and the 2019 Turkey Hunting Population Index survey (turkeys seen/hour) to predict the turkeys/hour seen for the 2020 hunting season.
The 2020 turkeys seen/hour prediction is then compared with the 2020 observed reality, and correlation is measured. A high correlation indicates that data from these surveys are an accurate predictor of the following year's hunting season quality, via the index of turkeys seen/hour.
The predictor model (1980-2018) is:
1/(Constant + (Slope X 2019 Poults/Observer) + (Slope X 2019 Turkeys Seen/Hour))
= 2020 Turkeys Seen/Hour
Therefore:
1/(0.09937 + (0.01067*8.7) + (0.52529*0.4677))
= 0.44 Turkeys Seen/Hour in 2020

After the reproduction + population data from 2019 was entered in the model, the prediction for the 2020 harvest season was 0.44 turkey seen/hour hunted. In reality, hunters observed an average of 0.42 turkeys per hour which was 4.5% fewer than what was predicted. A relatively high correlation r = 0.69 was obtained from this analysis indicating this model was a good predictor of the following years turkey season based on data obtained from the surveys.

Turkey Hunting Population Index Predictive Model 1980-2020
0.8000

0.7000

Turkeys Seen/Hour

0.6000

0.5000

0.4000

0.3000

0.2000

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Observed

Predicted

Grant Opportunity