Georgia-Atlanta economic indicators. Quarterly report, Vol. 9, no. 4 (Fourth quarter 2003)

Economic

Indicators

A Quarterly Report of Georgia and Metro Atlanta Labor Market and Economic Trends

Fourth Quarter 2003

Volume 9, Issue 4

Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner

Georgia-Atlanta Economic Indicators
Quarterly Report Fourth Quarter - 2003
Volume 9, Issue 4

Cover art: Springer Opera House, Columbus, Georgia by Huey J. Theus, Mableton, Georgia
Georgia Economic Indicators, Quarterly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 232-3875.
Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us

Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner

Equal Opportunity Employer/Programs - Auxiliary Aids and Services Available Upon Request to Individuals With Disabilities

Georgia Department of Labor

Economic Indicators / Fourth Quarter 2003

Contents
History ............................................................................................................................................................ 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................. 2 U.S. Consumer Price Index ......................................................................................................................... 3 Georgia Index of Economic Indicators ...................................................................................................... 4 Georgia Data Summary ................................................................................................................................ 5
Employment, Manufacturing Wages and Hours .................................................................................... 6 Nonagricultural, Retail, Manufacturing,Workweek, Earnings and Deflated Earnings
Job Openings, Unemployment Data and Vehicle Sales ........................................................................ 7 Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Initial/ Continued Unemployment Claims, Unemployment Rate, Insured Unemployment Rate and New Motor Vehicle Sales
Construction, New Business and State Revenue ................................................................................... 8 Residential/ Nonresidential Construction, Deflated Nonresidential Construction, New Business Corporations, Total/ Deflated State Revenue
Consumer Price Index for Atlanta .............................................................................................................. 9 Metro Atlanta Index of Economic Indicators ........................................................................................... 10 Atlanta Data Summary ................................................................................................................................ 11
Employment Data ......................................................................................................................................... 12 Nonagricultural, Wholesale, (Retail Accommodation and Food Services), Manufacturing and Government
Emloyment Data - Continued ..................................................................................................................... 13 Construction, (Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities), Financial Activities, Professional and Business Services, Hospital Services and Social Assistance
Manufacturing Workweek, Earnings and Unemployment Data .......................................................... 14 Manufacturing -(Workweek, Earnings and Deflated Earnings), Initial/ Continued Unemployment Claims and Unemployment Rates
Unemployment Data, Transit and Construction Data ............................................................................ 15 Insured Unemployment Rate, Marta Passengers, Cobb Community Transit Passengers, Residential/ Nonresidential Construction and Deflated Nonresidential Construction
Hotel and Mortgage Rates ......................................................................................................................... 16 Hotel Occupancy, Average Hotel Room Rates, Deflated Average Hotel Room Rates, Average 30-Year/ 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates and Average One-Year Adjustable Mortgage Rates

History
Welcome to the spectacular Springer Opera House - the State Theatre of Georgia and a leading Southern cultural institution for 131 years. This spectacular American treasure was built by Francis Joseph Springer, an immigrant from Alsace who moved to Columbus before the War Between the States. Springer became prosperous in the grocery business but had brought his love of theatre, music and dance from his native Rhine River Valley to the burgeoning Chattahoochee River Valley and dreamt of building an European style theatre here on the banks of this great Southern waterway.
The Springer Opera House opened February 21, 1871 and soon became nationally known as the finest house between Washington and New Orleans.
The Springer continued as a major theatre center until the stock market crash of 1929. With the onset of the Great Depression, the vast network of road companies which provided the lifeblood of American theatre collapsed and the Springer succumbed to the advent of the newest technology - movies.
The great old theatre survived as a movie house for awhile but a lack of maintenance and the eventual decline of Columbus' historic commercial district began the Springer's slide into near-oblivion.
In 1964, the theatre where the Barrymore's and the Booth's performed was slated for demolition. As the wrecking ball hovered above the stage house, a group of citizens determined to save the Springer aroused community support and began to raise the funds to bring it back to life. When the newly renovated Springer Opera House re-opened in 1965, southerners once again hurried to their seats beneath the huge brass chandelier to enjoy the very best in theatre, music and dance.
TODAY
Today, the Springer is one of America's most vibrant professional theatre companies with a popular Mainstage Series, an innovative second-space series called Studio II, an Academy Series featuring some of this region's most talented student actors and a ten-state, regional touring program called Springer Theatre On Tour. It is also the home of one of the nation's finest training schools for young actors, the Springer Theatre Academy.
In 1998-99, the Springer received a comprehensive $12 million historic renovation that included areas of the building untouched in the 1964 renovation and expanded program space from 35,000 to 75,000 square feet. This splendid preservation project included one of the most ambitious historic interior treatments of any theatre in America and a complete re-equipping with state-of-the-art lighting, sound, rigging, rehearsal facilities and technical support equipment.
The beautiful mainstage theatre, Emily Woodruff Hall, is named for a dedicated patron, performer, humanitarian and original trustee who ispired the 1964 renovation.
For more information visit www.sringeroperahouse.org

Introduction

G eorgia Economic Indicators, Quarterly Report, is designed to provide data on a number of indicators used
to measure movement of the state's economy in a single publication.
Our publication has changed.
The Georgia and Metropolitan Altanta Economic Indicator series, previously published as two separate monthly publications, are now published as a single quarterly publication. Additional data series for Georgia's other six metropolitan statistical areas are being developed and will be added to this publication. Graphs will continue to display data on monthly increments; whereas, companion data tables will display the 3-month average for each series (for 7 quarters) before alternating to a monthly format for the most recent quarter.
All data except those contained in the U.S. and Atlanta Consumer Price Index chart on Pages 3 and 9 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data that have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars.
Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually.
Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning Georgia Economic Indicators, Quarterly Report and Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Bill Webb, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 232-3875.

Data Sources

Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Manufacturing Workweek and Employment data. -- Georgia Department of Labor
Consumer Price Index -- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, adapted from commentary by Michael Wald New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group MARTA Passengers -- Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit System CCT Passengers -- Cobb Community Transit System Hotel Occupancy and Room Rates -- Smith Travel Research, Hendersonville, TN Mortgage Rates -- HSH Associates, Financial Publishers, Butler, NJ
Note: The bonus depreciation was introduced in the 2002 tax cut (JCWAA), which specified that 30 percent of the price of investments made by September 10, 2004 could be treated as an immediate expense under the corporate profit tax and the remaining 70 percent depreciated over time. Job Creation and Worker Assistance Act (JCWAA)
* Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center

2 Economic Indicators / Fourth Quarter 2003

Georgia Department of Labor

Consumer Price Index

Chart is not seasonally adjusted

YEAR JAN FEB MAR

1990

127.4

128.0

128.7

1991

134.6

134.8

135.0

1992

138.1

138.6

139.3

1993

142.6

143.1

143.6

1994

146.2

146.7

147.2

1995

150.3

150.9

151.4

1996

154.4

154.9

155.7

1997

159.1

159.6

160.0

1998

161.6

161.9

162.2

1999

164.3

164.5

165.0

2000

168.7

169.7

171.1

2001

175.1

175.8

176.2

2002

177.1

177.8

178.8

2003

181.7

183.1

184.2

* Rate computed from December to December

APR
128.9 135.2 139.5 144.0 147.4 151.9 156.3 160.2 162.5 166.2 171.2 176.9 179.8 183.8

MAY
129.2 135.6 139.7 144.2 147.5 152.2 156.6 160.1 162.8 166.2 171.3 177.7 179.8 183.5

JUN
129.9 136.0 140.2 144.4 148.0 152.5 156.7 160.3 163.0 166.2 172.3 178.0 179.9 183.7

JUL
130.4 136.2 140.5 144.4 148.4 152.5 157.0 160.5 163.2 166.7 172.6 177.5 180.1 183.9

AUG
131.6 136.6 140.9 144.8 149.0 152.9 157.3 160.8 163.4 167.1 172.8 177.5 180.7 184.6

SEP
132.7 137.2 141.3 145.1 149.4 153.2 157.8 161.2 163.6 167.9 173.7 178.3 181.0 185.2

OCT NOV DEC

ANN AVG

* CPI RATE

133.5

133.8

133.8

130.7

6.1%

137.4

137.8

137.9

136.2

3.1%

141.9

142.0

141.9

140.3

2.9%

145.7

145.8

145.8

144.5

2.7%

149.5

149.7

149.7

148.2

2.7%

153.7

153.6

153.5

152.4

2.5%

158.3

158.6

158.6

156.9

3.3%

161.6

161.5

161.3

160.5

1.7%

164.0

164.0

163.9

163.0

1.6%

168.2

168.3

168.3

166.6

2.7%

174.0

174.1

174.0

172.1

3.4%

177.7

177.4

176.7

177.1

1.6%

181.3

181.3

180.9

179.9

2.4%

185.0

184.5

184.3

184.0

1.9%

Source: U.S. Bureau Of Labor Statistics @www.bls.gov

Inflation Declines in December

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.1 percent in December, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. The December level of 184.3 (1982-84=100) was 1.9 percent higher than in December 2002.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U increased 0.2 percent in December, following a decline of 0.2 percent in November. Shelter costs were unchanged following a 3.0 percent drop in November. The index for all items less food and energy, increased 0.3 percent in December.
At a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), consumer prices were unchanged in the fourth quarter of 2003. In the first three quarters changes were at annual rates of 5.2, -0.7, and 3.1 percent, respectively. For the 12 month period ended in December, the CPI rose 1.9 percent.
Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U advanced at a 1.0 percent SAAR in the fourth quarter, following increases at rates of 0.8, 1.0, and 1.5

percent in the first three quarters of 2003. The 1.1 percent advance in 2003 compares with a 1.9 percent rise in all of 2002.
The index for housing, which declined 0.1 percent in November, increased 0.3 percent in December. Shelter costs, which were unchanged in November, increased 0.3 percent in December. During the 12 month period ended in December, the indexes for rent and owners' equivalent rent rose 2.7 and 2.0 percent, respectively. In 2002 these indexes increased 3.1 and 3.3 percent, respectively. The index for fuels and utilities, which declined 0.9 percent in November, increased 0.5 percent in December. During the 12 month period ended in December, charges for natural gas and for electricity rose 17.4 and 2.6 percent, respectively, and fuel oil prices increased 7.8 percent. The index for household furnishings and operations, turned up in December, increasing 0.2 percent, but fell 1.8 percent during the 12 month period ended in December.
The transportation index decreased for the third consecutive month, down

0.2 percent in December. The index for gasoline declined 0.1 percent, after falling sharply in October and November. Despite the recent declines, gasoline prices are still 6.8 percent higher than in December 2002. The index for new vehicles was unchanged in December.
The index for apparel declined 0.4 percent in December. Prior to seasonal adjustment, apparel prices fell 3.3 percent, reflecting pre-holiday discounting. During the 12 month period ended in December, apparel prices declined 2.1 percent, their sixth consecutive annual decline.
Medical care costs rose 0.6 percent in December and are 3.7 percent higher than a year ago. The index for medical care commodities increased 0.4 percent. In the 12 month period ended in December, these indexes advanced 2.8 and 6.4 percent, respectively.

Georgia Department of Labor

Economic Indicators / Fourth Quarter 2003 3

Georgia Index of Economic Indicators
208
Leading indicators Coincident indicators
181

154

128

101
1990 = 100

74 1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

Momentum Slows in Final Quarter

Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted.
*** Both of Georgia's Economic Indicators lost momentum after transitioning into the fourth quarter. After a spectacular third quarter economic activity either declined or posted miniscule gains throughout the final three months of 2003. The Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) barely increased to 180.8 in October, up from the 180.7 posted in September. In November the LEI slipped to 179.9 (down 0.4%), then recovered to 181.2 (up 0.7%) in December. A large spike in initial unemployment claims (up 34.5% in December) played a key role in hampering the indicators progress. Commercial construction also took a dip in December (down 4.0%). At the end of the fourth quarter strong sales of residential homes (up 27.5%), new

business corporations filed (up 15.7%) along with an increase of new motor vehicles sold (up 13.5%) prevented the index from ending the year in negative territory.
The Coincident Economic Indicator (CEI) had a little more consistent quarter than the LEI, advancing to 175.7 in October and 176.3 in November (up 0.3% both months). However, the gains were reversed in December when the index declined to 175.4 (down 0.5 percent).
Non-farm employment, which is a key part of this recovery declined in November and December down 0.3 and 0.2 percent, respectively. Retail employment had a difficult time expanding during the holiday season. Stores cut payrolls 0.7 and

1.7 percent during the last two months of the quarter, traditionally the busiest season of the year.
Georgia's unemployment rate resided at 4.0 percent in December, a significant decline from the 5.1 percent rate posted for the same time period in 2002. Tax revenue collected by the state increased 4.9 percent in November then declined 1.6 percent in December.
Over the year, the leading indicators went from 172.8 to 181.2 (a 4.8% increase), which was lower than the annual increase of 5.9 percent posted in 2002. The coincident indicators started at 167.4 and ended the year at 175.4 (up 4.8%) more then doubling the annual increase of 1.8 percent in 2002.

4 Economic Indicators / Fourth Quarter 2003

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia
Nonagricultural Employment change from previous month
Retail Employment change from previous month
Manufacturing Employment change from previous month
Manufacturing Workweek (hours) change from previous month
Weekly Manufacturing Earnings change from previous month
Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled change from previous month
Initial Unemployment Claims change from previous month
Continued Unemployment Claims change from previous month
Unemployment rate (not seasonally adjusted) change from previous month
Insured Unemployment Rate change from previous month
New Motor Vehicle Sales change from previous month
Residential Construction ( building permits ) change from previous month
Nonresidential Construction ( dollar value ) change from previous month
New Business Corporations change from previous month
Total State Revenues ( in millions ) change from previous month
Deflated State Revenues ( in millions ) change from previous month
Georgia Department of Labor

December 2003
3,951,043 -0.27%
453,117 -1.71%
448,504 -0.34%
38.7 -2.04%
$546.41 -1.19%
12,636 -13.59%
53,200 34.54%
295,243 13.39%
4.0% - -
1.77% - -
46,219 13.55%
9,410 27.56%
$360,930,053 -4.03%
6,496 15.71%
$1,123,262,498 -1.67%
609,473,700 -1.56%

November 2003
3,961,744 -0.34%
461,013 -0.79%
450,036 0.09%
39.5 2.25%
$552.98 1.00%
14,624 7.56%
39,542 -4.22%
260,374 -8.48%
4.1% - -
1.78% - -
40,703 -4.01%
7,377 -17.86%
$376,092,678 1.67%
5,614 -12.85%
$1,142,350,691 4.97%
619,159,900 5.25%

October 2003
3,975,231 - -
464,683 - -
449,638 - -
38.6 - -
$547.51 - -
13,597 - -
41,284 - -
284,485 - -
4.4% - -
1.80% - -
42,403 - -
8,981 - -
$369,923,668 - -
6,442 - -
$1,088,272,696 - -
588,254,100 - -

Economic Indicators / Fourth Quarter 2003 5

MILLIONS

THOUSANDS

GEORGIA
4. 02
2002 2003
3. 98

44. 2 42. 7

2002 2003

3. 95

41. 3

HOURS

3. 91

39. 8

3. 88
Nonagricultural Employment
3. 84 500
480
460
440

DOLLARS

38. 4 36. 9 $ 595 $ 575 $ 555 $ 535

Manufacturing Workweek

420
Retail Employment
400
510

$ 515
Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings
$ 495
$ 340

490

$ 325

470

$ 310

DOLLARS

450

$ 295

430

$ 280

Manufacturing Employment

Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings

410

$ 265

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

Employment

2002: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2003: Q1 Q2 Q3 Oct
Nov Dec

Nonag
3,917,900 3,907,837 3,900,149 3,897,861 3,909,766 3,921,513 3,955,801 3,975,231 3,961,744 3,951,043

Retail
453,237 456,186 453,215 454,103 461,004 459,416 461,006 464,683 461,013 453,117

Mfg.
471,521 472,759 473,759 469,658 461,490 447,275 450,143 449,638 450,036 448,504

All graphs contain monthly data and are seasonally adjusted, except where noted.

Manufacturing

Avg. Work Week

Weekly Earnings

41.1

$549.23

41.1

545.70

40.7

534.06

40.7

560.83

40.6

564.46

40.5

573.35

39.3

546.35

38.6

547.51

39.5

552.98

38.7

546.41

Deflated Wkly Earnings
$308.73 303.45 295.71 309.57 308.44 312.17 296.04 295.95 299.72 296.48

THOUSANDS

6 Economic Indicators / Fourth Quarter 2003

Georgia Department of Labor

THOUSANDS

THOUSANDS

GEORGIA
19.7
2002 2003
16.2

6.3 2002 2003
5.7

PERCENTAGES

12.7

5.2

9.2

4.6

5.7

4.1

Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled

2.2

3.5

99.6

3.26

80.9

2.76

Unemployment Rate

PERCENTAGES

62.1

2.26

43.4

1.76

24.6
Initial Unemployment Claims
5.9
550

1.26
Insured Unemployment Rate
0.76
63

450

56

THOUSANDS

350

50

250

43

150

Continued Unemployment Claims

50

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

37
New Motor Vehicle Sales

30 J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

THOUSANDS

2002: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2003: Q1 Q2 Q3 Oct
Nov Dec

Job Openings
9,214 9,697 10,246 10,690 11,486 11,649 14,137 13,597 14,624 12,636

Initial Claims
46,376 49,953 44,835 50,556 49,032 58,777 52,722 41,284 39,542 53,200

1 Rate at the end of each quarter, except for monthly rates. * Estimate used, actual data not available.

Georgia Department of Labor

Unemployment

Continued Claims
309,885

Rate 1
5.1%

342,513

5.7%

321,650

5.4%

303,933

5.1%

299,701

4.7%

330,848

5.4%

314,854

4.6%

284,485

4.4%

260,374

4.1%

295,243

4.0%

Insured 1
2.06% 1.94% 1.96% 2.19% 1.99% 2.03% 1.91% 1.80% 1.78% 1.77%

New Motor Vehicle Sales
46,658 43,752 47,308 42,452 45,229 40,931 45,609 *42,403 40,703 46,219

Economic Indicators / Fourth Quarter 2003 7

HOUSEHOLD UNITS

MILLIONS

GEORGIA

10, 277

9, 388

2002 2003

8, 499

7, 609

6, 720
Residential Construction
5, 831
$ 810

$ 672

$ 534 $ 396

$ 258
Nonresidential Construction
$ 120

$ 675

MILLIONS

CHARTERS

8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 $ 1,683 $ 1,466 $ 1,250 $ 1,033 $ 817 $ 600 $ 940

2002 2003
New Business Corporations
Total State Revenue

$ 550

$ 823

MILLIONS

$ 425

$ 706

$ 300

$ 589

$ 175
$ 50 J

Deflated Nonresidential Construction

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

$ 472

$ 355

D

J

Deflated Total State Revenue

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

MILLIONS

Construction Residential 2 Non-residential 1 Deflated non-res 1

2002: Q1

7,794

Q2

8,400

Q3

7,861

Q4

7,970

2003: Q1

7,350

Q2

6,927

Q3

8,759

Oct

8,981

Nov

7,377

Dec

9,410

1 Data rounded

2 Household units 3 Includes limited liability companies

$441,608,000 448,637,000 436,092,000 492,563,000 408,989,000 398,846,000 488,170,000 369,924,000 376,093,000 360,930,000

$356,710,800 362,193,500 351,592,600 391,337,100 318,858,400 309,743,200 377,062,300 281,311,000 284,487,900 273,018,200

8 Economic Indicators / Fourth Quarter 2003

New Business Corporations 3
5,236 4,785 5,180 5,186 4,950 5,757 5,497 6,442 5,614 6,496

Total State Revenue 1 Deflated Rev. 1

$1,040,070,000 1,131,250,000 1,004,900,000 1,073,530,000 1,037,440,000 1,104,810,000 1,042,300,000 1,088,270,000 1,142,350,000 1,123,260,000

$584,637,400 629,054,700 556,423,000 592,564,900 566,907,100 601,529,900 564,728,200 588,254,100 619,159,900 609,473,700

Georgia Department of Labor

Consumer Price Index for Atlanta

YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Rate *

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

76.4 87.2 92.8 97.9 102.6 107.0 111.7

78.0 88.2 92.9 98.7 103.2 107.6 111.1

159.5 161.9 167.4 175.3 176.1 180.7

160.8 164.0 169.8 176.6 178.6 182.1

* Annual rate of increase from December to December

80.3 89.3 96.5 100.2 104.1 108.8 112.2 115.5 119.1 124.9 130.8 135.5 138.6 142.2 146.7 150.3 154.7 158.3 162.0 164.8 170.9 177.8 179.1 181.5

81.7 91.6 98.0 100.8 104.8 109.9 112.4
161.9 165.9 172.1 176.9 179.7 181.7

83.0 93.3 98.8 100.9 105.4 110.4 112.7
162.0 166.5 171.9 176.7 179.4 180.1

85.7 93.6 98.2 101.9 105.5 111.2 113.5 117.5 121.7 127.3 132.6 136.2 138.5 144.7 146.7 151.5 157.2 159.5 161.6 167.0 171.9 174.8 177.3 179.0

15.8% 9.2% 4.9% 3.8% 3.5% 5.4% 2.1% 3.8% 3.3% 4.7% 4.4% 3.2% 1.9% 3.5% 2.3% 2.9% 3.4% 1.9% 1.4% 3.3% 2.9% 1.7% 1.4% 1.0%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics @ www.bls.gov

The CPI for Atlanta Moves Lower in 2003

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) for Atlanta decreased 0.6 percent over the two months ending in December to a level of 179.0 (1982-84=100), not seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. For the 12-months ending in December, the CPI-U for Atlanta increased 1.0 percent.
Over the two months, lower costs for housing, apparel and transportation accounted for almost all of the decrease in the all items index. Energy costs advanced 0.7 percent after falling 11.4 percent in the two month period ending in October. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U for Atlanta declined 1.2 percent over the past two months.

Over the past 12 months, the CPI-U for Atlanta has increased 1.0 percent. During that time period, energy costs advanced 8.3 percent. Excluding the cost of food and energy, the CPI-U for Atlanta decreased 0.6 percent in calendar year 2003.
Over the past two months, the index for housing dropped 0.8 percent, its third consecutive bimonthly decrease. Lower costs for shelter (-1.1 percent) accounted for almost all of the decrease in the housing index. Fuels and utilities costs rose 1.9 percent since October due to a 6.8 percent increase in the cost of utility natural gas service. Over the year, housing costs increased 0.7 percent. Costs for shelter declined 0.1 percentage point, while the index for electricity dropped 0.2 percent and costs for utility natural gas service increased 17.7 percent.

Since October, apparel costs have decreased 8.5 percent. This is the largest bimonthly decrease for this index since December 2002. Over the past 12 months, apparel costs in Atlanta declined 7.7 percent, the largest calendar year decline in apparel prices since 1998.
The transportation index fell 0.8 percent in the November December pricing period due to falling gasoline costs. The index for gasoline decreased 1.5 percent over the two months. Over the year, transportation costs have risen 1.7 percent, as gasoline costs climbed 10.8 percent.
The medical care index recorded a 0.3 percent increase over the two months bringing it to a level 1.5 percent higher than in December 2002.

Georgia Department of Labor

Economic Indicators / Fourth Quarter 2003 9

Metro Atlanta Index of Economic Indicators
184.9
Leading indicators Coincident indicators
165.6

146.3

127.1

107.8
1995-96 = 100

88.5

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

Atlanta's Coincident Indicators Continue Streak

Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted.

***

Atlanta's Economic Indicator's ended the year in a modest fashion. Both indexes posted gains during most of the fourth quarter.
The Leading Economic Indicators, which reflects activity that will impact the economy (up to two quarters) into the future, contracted initially. The index declined during the month of holloween (175.2,-0.6%), then posted back-to-back gains in November (177.2,+1.1%) and December (178.2,+0.5%).
The index's largest decline was in the value of commercial construction put in place, starting the week of labor day, revenue had reached $382 million by the end of the month, then declined to $193 million by New Year's Eve. Permits for residential construction started off the first two months of the

reporting period in negative territory before registering a double-digit gain in December. Average weekly manufacturing hours worked in the fourth quarter declined to 35.9, down from the 36.4 weekly average in the previous quarter. Declines in initial jobless claims aided the index's advance in November and December.
The Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI), which measures current economic conditions, continued its streak of gains adding another quarter of consecutive increases. Unemployment in the metro area declined from 4.5 percent in October to 4.0 percent matching the jobless rate for the state in December. As the job situation brightens the jobless rate may increase due to more discouraged

workers re-entering the job market. The insured unemployment rate declined from 1.68 percent in October to 1.54 percent in December. Holiday sales were better then last year's, but did not measure up to most retailers' forecast. Employment in the retail sector declined during the final three months of the year.
Overall, the economy in the metro area seems to be moving along in a step-wise fashion. Low interest rates and bonus depreciation for business investment (see note at the bottom of page 2 for details) will help to increase business spending, which should translate into more hiring.

10 Economic Indicators / Fourth Quarter 2003

Georgia Department of Labor

Metro Atlanta

Dec-2003

Nov-2003

Oct-2003

Percent Change Nov-2003
to Dec-2003

Percent Change Oct-2003
to Nov-2003

Nonagricultural Employment

2,224,152

Wholesale Employment

133,487

Retail Employment

244,162

Accommodation and Food Services Employment

175,849

Manufacturing Employment

160,815

Government Employment

293,239

Construction Employment

125,851

Trans., Warehousing and Utilities Employment

107,640

Financial Activities Employment

146,942

Professional and Business Services Employment

384,215

Hospital Services Employment

59,162

Social Assistance Employment

24,776

Manufacturing Workweek

35.9

Manufacturing Earnings

$539.31

Deflated Manufacturing Earnings

$292.63

Initial Unemployment Claims

11,706

Continued Unemployment Claims

156,916

Total Unemployment Rate ( not seasonally adjusted )

4.0

Insured Unemployment Rate

1.54%

MARTA Passengers

5,669,000

Cobb County Transit Passengers

227,791

Residential Construction (household units)

6,408

Nonresidential Construction (value)

$193,536,000

Deflated Nonresidential Construction

$145,400,000

Hotel Occupancy

#N/A

Average Hotel Room Rates

#N/A

Deflated Average Hotel Room Rate

#N/A

Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate

5.91%

Average 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate

5.24%

Average One-Year Adjustable Mortgage Rate

3.57%

2,236,563 134,070 248,302 174,565 163,008 291,345 125,480 107,416 148,319 388,668 59,379 24,819 36.2 $531.55 $288.10 10,511 139,857 4.1 1.67%
5,248,000 211,341 5,146
$198,519,000 $149,700,000
#N/A #N/A #N/A 5.96% 5.25% 3.48%

2,236,468 131,792 250,365 176,112 162,103 292,997 125,565 106,942 147,483 390,117 59,249 24,724 35.8 $521.61 $281.95 12,462 142,185 4.5 1.68%
5,817,000 214,082 6,424
$167,324,000 $127,000,000
#N/A #N/A #N/A 6.01% 5.28% 3.51%

-0.55% 0.00%

-0.43% 1.73%

-1.67% -0.82%

0.74% -0.88%

-1.35% 0.56%

0.65% -0.56%

0.30% -0.07%

0.21% 0.44%

-0.93% 0.57%

-1.15% -0.37%

-0.37% 0.22%

-0.18% 0.39%

-0.79% 1.07%

1.46% 1.91%

1.57% 2.18%

11.37% -15.66%

12.20% -1.64%

-

-

-

-

8.02% -9.78%

7.78% -1.28%

24.52% -19.89%

-2.51% 18.64%

-2.87% 17.87%

-

-

#N/A #N/A

#N/A #N/A

-

-

-

-

-

-

Georgia Department of Labor

Economic Indicators / Fourth Quarter 2003 11

MILLIONS

THOUSANDS

Metro Atlanta

2. 30 2. 26

2002 2003

2. 23

2. 19

2. 16
Nonagricultural Employment
2. 12
150

145

140

135

130
Wholesale Employment
125
270

THOUSANDS

THOUSANDS

300 2002 2003
250
200
150
100
Accommodation and Food Services
50
220
200
180
160
140
Manufacturing Employment
120 310

260

300

THOUSANDS

250

290

240

280

230
Retail Employment

220

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

270
Government Employment

260

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

THOUSANDS

Period
2002 :Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2003 :Q1 Q2 Q3 Oct
Nov Dec

Nonag
2,179,602 2,187,850 2,170,072 2,165,678 2,179,868 2,195,027 2,222,259 2,236,468 2,236,563 2,224,152

Wholesale
142,714 143,538 140,903 140,245 140,839 135,164 133,491 131,792 134,070 133,487

Employment

Retail

Accom. & Food Services

247,873 249,841 248,473 247,770 250,854 248,660 250,872 250,365 248,302 244,162

167,837 172,037 167,944 166,992 167,285 173,256 172,211 176,112 174,565 175,849

Manufacturing
171,189 173,126 169,593 169,181 167,983 163,887 162,171 162,103 163,008 160,815

Government
278,665 282,007 286,104 288,326 290,146 287,337 287,022 292,997 291,345 293,239

12 Economic Indicators / Fourth Quarter 2003

Georgia Department of Labor

THOUSANDS

THOUSANDS

Metro Atlanta
132 2002 2003
126

420
2002 2003 400

120

380

THOUSANDS

114

360

108
Construction Employment
102

340
Professional and Business Services Employment
320

140

80

130

70

THOUSANDS

120

60

110

50

100

40

Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Employment

90

30

155

40

Hospital Services Employment

151

35

147

30

THOUSANDS

143

25

139
Financial Activities Employment

20
Social Assistance Employment

135

J

F

M

A

M

J

15

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

Period
2002 :Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2003 :Q1 Q2 Q3 Oct
Nov Dec

Construction
121,539 118,075 116,408 116,369 118,618 120,629 121,884 125,565 125,480 125,851

Trans, Ware & Utilities
115,924 116,827 113,881 111,873 112,559 108,413 108,538 106,942 107,416 107,640

Employment

Financial Activities

Professional & Business Services

148,163 146,444 145,135 145,488 144,536 144,455 145,622 147,483 148,319 146,942

363,112 365,666 359,489 355,674 359,355 375,996 384,846 390,117 388,668 384,215

Hospital Services
56,012 55,545 55,074 56,032 57,246 57,804 59,193 59,249 59,379 59,162

Social Assistance
24,971 25,311 25,183 25,330 26,089 24,881 26,711 24,724 24,819 24,776

THOUSANDS

Georgia Department of Labor

Economic Indicators / Fourth Quarter 2003 13

HOURS

DOLLARS

Metro Atlanta

43.0 41.0

2002 2003

39.0

37.0

35.0
33.0 $675

Manufacturing Workweek

$635

$595

$555

$515
Manufacturing Earnings
$475
475

THOUSANDS

THOUSANDS

26. 9 21. 9

2002 2003

16. 9

11. 9

6. 9
Initial Unemployment Claims
1. 9
275

225

175

125

75
Continued Unemployment Claims
25
7.0

420

365

310

255
Deflated Manufacturing Earnings

200

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

PERCENTAGES

6.0

5.0

4.0

Unemployment Rate

3.0

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

DOLLARS

Period
2002 :Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2003 :Q1 Q2 Q3 Oct
Nov Dec

Work Week (hrs)
40.1 40.0 39.0 39.5 39.3 38.7 36.4 35.8 36.2 35.9

Manufacturing
Weekly Earnings
$617.37 607.08 592.97 603.96 595.25 588.50 539.10 521.61 531.55 539.31

Deflated Earnings
$347.00 337.58 328.33 333.37 325.28 320.42 292.13 281.95 288.10 292.63

14 Economic Indicators / Fourth Quarter 2003

Initial Claims
13,434 14,878 13,060 13,623 13,272 15,564 13,186 12,462 10,511 11,706

Unemployment
Continued Claims
171,515 186,676 173,034 163,621 158,677 178,406 161,618 142,185 139,857 156,916

Rate
5.2% 5.9% 5.6% 5.2% 4.7% 5.5% 4.8% 4.5% 4.1% 4.0%

Georgia Department of Labor

PERCENTAGES

MILLIONS

Metro Atlanta
2. 9 2002 2003
2. 5
2. 1
1. 7
1. 3
Insured Unemployment Rate
0. 9 7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
MARTA Passengers
4.5
250

MILLIONS

HOUSEHOLD UNITS ( THOUSANDS )

7. 5 6. 6 5. 8 4. 9 4. 1 3. 2 $600 $480 $360 $240 $120 $0 $431

2002 2003
Residential Construction
Nonresidential Construction

225

$346

200

$261

MILLIONS

175

$176

150
Cobb Community Transit Passengers

$91
Deflated Nonresidential Construction

125

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

$6

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

THOUSANDS

Period
2002 :Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2003 :Q1 Q2 Q3 Oct
Nov Dec

Insured Unemployment
Rate 2
2.06% 1.96% 1.83% 1.84% 1.81% 1.93% 1.75% 1.68% 1.67% 1.54%

Transit Passengers

MARTA 1
5,618,800 5,637,400 5,361,200 5,456,900 5,476,300 5,570,400 5,506,000 5,816,700 5,247,800 5,668,600

Cobb Community
175,120 167,733 178,376 193,958 191,127 190,276 202,328 214,082 211,341 227,791

Construction

Residential 3
5,181 5,721 5,180 5,442 4,831 4,623 6,149 6,424 5,146 6,408

Nonresidential 1
$296,865,000 283,007,000 290,063,000 285,491,000 236,366,000 250,483,000 290,529,000 167,324,000 198,519,000 193,536,000

Deflated Non-res
$239,766,667 228,500,000 233,766,667 226,833,333 184,166,667 194,866,667 223,733,333 127,000,000 149,700,000 145,400,000

1 Data rounded 2 Rate at the end of each quarter, except for monthly rates.
Georgia Department of Labor

3 Household units Economic Indicators / Fourth Quarter 2003 15

PERCENTAGES

DOLLARS

Metro Atlanta
75 2002 2003
69

7. 60 7. 00

2002 2003

PERCENTAGES

63

6. 40

56

5. 80

50
Hotel Occupancy
44
$87
$82

5. 20
Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
4. 60
7.10
6.48

$78

5.86

PERCENTAGES

$74
$69
Average Hotel Room Rates
$65
$49

5.24
4.62
Average 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
4.00
7.41

$47

6.21

PERCENTAGES

$44

5.01

$41

3.81

$38

2.61

Deflated Average Hotel Room Rates

Average One-Year Adjustable Mortgage Rates

$35

1.41

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

DOLLARS

Period

Occupancy %

2002 :Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2003 :Q1 Q2 Q3 Oct
Nov Dec

60.2% 57.8% 57.7% 58.2% 56.8% 55.3% #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

1 Rate does not include points

Hotel Data
Room Rates
$77.65 77.55 75.75 77.10 74.18 72.16 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

16 Economic Indicators / Fourth Quarter 2003

Deflated Room Rates
$43.65 43.13 41.94 42.56 40.54 39.29 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

3 0 - Ye a r Fixed 1
7.00% 6.60% 6.16% 6.00% 5.74% 5.22% 6.20% 6.01% 5.96% 5.91%

Mortgage Rates

1 5 - Ye a r Fixed 1

O n e - Ye a r Rate Adjustable 1

6.55% 6.11% 5.58% 5.40% 5.10% 4.61% 5.47% 5.28% 5.25% 5.24%

4.98% 4.29% 4.20% 3.63% 3.43% 3.18% 3.66% 3.51% 3.48% 3.57%

Georgia Department of Labor

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