Economic Indicators A Quarterly Report of Georgia and Metro Atlanta Labor Market and Economic Trends Fourth Quarter 2003 Volume 9, Issue 4 Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner Georgia-Atlanta Economic Indicators Quarterly Report Fourth Quarter - 2003 Volume 9, Issue 4 Cover art: Springer Opera House, Columbus, Georgia by Huey J. Theus, Mableton, Georgia Georgia Economic Indicators, Quarterly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 232-3875. Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner Equal Opportunity Employer/Programs - Auxiliary Aids and Services Available Upon Request to Individuals With Disabilities Georgia Department of Labor Economic Indicators / Fourth Quarter 2003 Contents History ............................................................................................................................................................ 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................. 2 U.S. Consumer Price Index ......................................................................................................................... 3 Georgia Index of Economic Indicators ...................................................................................................... 4 Georgia Data Summary ................................................................................................................................ 5 Employment, Manufacturing Wages and Hours .................................................................................... 6 Nonagricultural, Retail, Manufacturing,Workweek, Earnings and Deflated Earnings Job Openings, Unemployment Data and Vehicle Sales ........................................................................ 7 Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Initial/ Continued Unemployment Claims, Unemployment Rate, Insured Unemployment Rate and New Motor Vehicle Sales Construction, New Business and State Revenue ................................................................................... 8 Residential/ Nonresidential Construction, Deflated Nonresidential Construction, New Business Corporations, Total/ Deflated State Revenue Consumer Price Index for Atlanta .............................................................................................................. 9 Metro Atlanta Index of Economic Indicators ........................................................................................... 10 Atlanta Data Summary ................................................................................................................................ 11 Employment Data ......................................................................................................................................... 12 Nonagricultural, Wholesale, (Retail Accommodation and Food Services), Manufacturing and Government Emloyment Data - Continued ..................................................................................................................... 13 Construction, (Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities), Financial Activities, Professional and Business Services, Hospital Services and Social Assistance Manufacturing Workweek, Earnings and Unemployment Data .......................................................... 14 Manufacturing -(Workweek, Earnings and Deflated Earnings), Initial/ Continued Unemployment Claims and Unemployment Rates Unemployment Data, Transit and Construction Data ............................................................................ 15 Insured Unemployment Rate, Marta Passengers, Cobb Community Transit Passengers, Residential/ Nonresidential Construction and Deflated Nonresidential Construction Hotel and Mortgage Rates ......................................................................................................................... 16 Hotel Occupancy, Average Hotel Room Rates, Deflated Average Hotel Room Rates, Average 30-Year/ 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates and Average One-Year Adjustable Mortgage Rates History Welcome to the spectacular Springer Opera House - the State Theatre of Georgia and a leading Southern cultural institution for 131 years. This spectacular American treasure was built by Francis Joseph Springer, an immigrant from Alsace who moved to Columbus before the War Between the States. Springer became prosperous in the grocery business but had brought his love of theatre, music and dance from his native Rhine River Valley to the burgeoning Chattahoochee River Valley and dreamt of building an European style theatre here on the banks of this great Southern waterway. The Springer Opera House opened February 21, 1871 and soon became nationally known as the finest house between Washington and New Orleans. The Springer continued as a major theatre center until the stock market crash of 1929. With the onset of the Great Depression, the vast network of road companies which provided the lifeblood of American theatre collapsed and the Springer succumbed to the advent of the newest technology - movies. The great old theatre survived as a movie house for awhile but a lack of maintenance and the eventual decline of Columbus' historic commercial district began the Springer's slide into near-oblivion. In 1964, the theatre where the Barrymore's and the Booth's performed was slated for demolition. As the wrecking ball hovered above the stage house, a group of citizens determined to save the Springer aroused community support and began to raise the funds to bring it back to life. When the newly renovated Springer Opera House re-opened in 1965, southerners once again hurried to their seats beneath the huge brass chandelier to enjoy the very best in theatre, music and dance. TODAY Today, the Springer is one of America's most vibrant professional theatre companies with a popular Mainstage Series, an innovative second-space series called Studio II, an Academy Series featuring some of this region's most talented student actors and a ten-state, regional touring program called Springer Theatre On Tour. It is also the home of one of the nation's finest training schools for young actors, the Springer Theatre Academy. In 1998-99, the Springer received a comprehensive $12 million historic renovation that included areas of the building untouched in the 1964 renovation and expanded program space from 35,000 to 75,000 square feet. This splendid preservation project included one of the most ambitious historic interior treatments of any theatre in America and a complete re-equipping with state-of-the-art lighting, sound, rigging, rehearsal facilities and technical support equipment. The beautiful mainstage theatre, Emily Woodruff Hall, is named for a dedicated patron, performer, humanitarian and original trustee who ispired the 1964 renovation. For more information visit www.sringeroperahouse.org Introduction G eorgia Economic Indicators, Quarterly Report, is designed to provide data on a number of indicators used to measure movement of the state's economy in a single publication. Our publication has changed. The Georgia and Metropolitan Altanta Economic Indicator series, previously published as two separate monthly publications, are now published as a single quarterly publication. Additional data series for Georgia's other six metropolitan statistical areas are being developed and will be added to this publication. Graphs will continue to display data on monthly increments; whereas, companion data tables will display the 3-month average for each series (for 7 quarters) before alternating to a monthly format for the most recent quarter. All data except those contained in the U.S. and Atlanta Consumer Price Index chart on Pages 3 and 9 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data that have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars. Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually. Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning Georgia Economic Indicators, Quarterly Report and Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Bill Webb, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 232-3875. Data Sources Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Manufacturing Workweek and Employment data. -- Georgia Department of Labor Consumer Price Index -- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, adapted from commentary by Michael Wald New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group MARTA Passengers -- Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit System CCT Passengers -- Cobb Community Transit System Hotel Occupancy and Room Rates -- Smith Travel Research, Hendersonville, TN Mortgage Rates -- HSH Associates, Financial Publishers, Butler, NJ Note: The bonus depreciation was introduced in the 2002 tax cut (JCWAA), which specified that 30 percent of the price of investments made by September 10, 2004 could be treated as an immediate expense under the corporate profit tax and the remaining 70 percent depreciated over time. Job Creation and Worker Assistance Act (JCWAA) * Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center 2 Economic Indicators / Fourth Quarter 2003 Georgia Department of Labor Consumer Price Index Chart is not seasonally adjusted YEAR JAN FEB MAR 1990 127.4 128.0 128.7 1991 134.6 134.8 135.0 1992 138.1 138.6 139.3 1993 142.6 143.1 143.6 1994 146.2 146.7 147.2 1995 150.3 150.9 151.4 1996 154.4 154.9 155.7 1997 159.1 159.6 160.0 1998 161.6 161.9 162.2 1999 164.3 164.5 165.0 2000 168.7 169.7 171.1 2001 175.1 175.8 176.2 2002 177.1 177.8 178.8 2003 181.7 183.1 184.2 * Rate computed from December to December APR 128.9 135.2 139.5 144.0 147.4 151.9 156.3 160.2 162.5 166.2 171.2 176.9 179.8 183.8 MAY 129.2 135.6 139.7 144.2 147.5 152.2 156.6 160.1 162.8 166.2 171.3 177.7 179.8 183.5 JUN 129.9 136.0 140.2 144.4 148.0 152.5 156.7 160.3 163.0 166.2 172.3 178.0 179.9 183.7 JUL 130.4 136.2 140.5 144.4 148.4 152.5 157.0 160.5 163.2 166.7 172.6 177.5 180.1 183.9 AUG 131.6 136.6 140.9 144.8 149.0 152.9 157.3 160.8 163.4 167.1 172.8 177.5 180.7 184.6 SEP 132.7 137.2 141.3 145.1 149.4 153.2 157.8 161.2 163.6 167.9 173.7 178.3 181.0 185.2 OCT NOV DEC ANN AVG * CPI RATE 133.5 133.8 133.8 130.7 6.1% 137.4 137.8 137.9 136.2 3.1% 141.9 142.0 141.9 140.3 2.9% 145.7 145.8 145.8 144.5 2.7% 149.5 149.7 149.7 148.2 2.7% 153.7 153.6 153.5 152.4 2.5% 158.3 158.6 158.6 156.9 3.3% 161.6 161.5 161.3 160.5 1.7% 164.0 164.0 163.9 163.0 1.6% 168.2 168.3 168.3 166.6 2.7% 174.0 174.1 174.0 172.1 3.4% 177.7 177.4 176.7 177.1 1.6% 181.3 181.3 180.9 179.9 2.4% 185.0 184.5 184.3 184.0 1.9% Source: U.S. Bureau Of Labor Statistics @www.bls.gov Inflation Declines in December The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.1 percent in December, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. The December level of 184.3 (1982-84=100) was 1.9 percent higher than in December 2002. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U increased 0.2 percent in December, following a decline of 0.2 percent in November. Shelter costs were unchanged following a 3.0 percent drop in November. The index for all items less food and energy, increased 0.3 percent in December. At a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), consumer prices were unchanged in the fourth quarter of 2003. In the first three quarters changes were at annual rates of 5.2, -0.7, and 3.1 percent, respectively. For the 12 month period ended in December, the CPI rose 1.9 percent. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U advanced at a 1.0 percent SAAR in the fourth quarter, following increases at rates of 0.8, 1.0, and 1.5 percent in the first three quarters of 2003. The 1.1 percent advance in 2003 compares with a 1.9 percent rise in all of 2002. The index for housing, which declined 0.1 percent in November, increased 0.3 percent in December. Shelter costs, which were unchanged in November, increased 0.3 percent in December. During the 12 month period ended in December, the indexes for rent and owners' equivalent rent rose 2.7 and 2.0 percent, respectively. In 2002 these indexes increased 3.1 and 3.3 percent, respectively. The index for fuels and utilities, which declined 0.9 percent in November, increased 0.5 percent in December. During the 12 month period ended in December, charges for natural gas and for electricity rose 17.4 and 2.6 percent, respectively, and fuel oil prices increased 7.8 percent. The index for household furnishings and operations, turned up in December, increasing 0.2 percent, but fell 1.8 percent during the 12 month period ended in December. The transportation index decreased for the third consecutive month, down 0.2 percent in December. The index for gasoline declined 0.1 percent, after falling sharply in October and November. Despite the recent declines, gasoline prices are still 6.8 percent higher than in December 2002. The index for new vehicles was unchanged in December. The index for apparel declined 0.4 percent in December. Prior to seasonal adjustment, apparel prices fell 3.3 percent, reflecting pre-holiday discounting. During the 12 month period ended in December, apparel prices declined 2.1 percent, their sixth consecutive annual decline. Medical care costs rose 0.6 percent in December and are 3.7 percent higher than a year ago. The index for medical care commodities increased 0.4 percent. In the 12 month period ended in December, these indexes advanced 2.8 and 6.4 percent, respectively. Georgia Department of Labor Economic Indicators / Fourth Quarter 2003 3 Georgia Index of Economic Indicators 208 Leading indicators Coincident indicators 181 154 128 101 1990 = 100 74 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Momentum Slows in Final Quarter Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted. *** Both of Georgia's Economic Indicators lost momentum after transitioning into the fourth quarter. After a spectacular third quarter economic activity either declined or posted miniscule gains throughout the final three months of 2003. The Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) barely increased to 180.8 in October, up from the 180.7 posted in September. In November the LEI slipped to 179.9 (down 0.4%), then recovered to 181.2 (up 0.7%) in December. A large spike in initial unemployment claims (up 34.5% in December) played a key role in hampering the indicators progress. Commercial construction also took a dip in December (down 4.0%). At the end of the fourth quarter strong sales of residential homes (up 27.5%), new business corporations filed (up 15.7%) along with an increase of new motor vehicles sold (up 13.5%) prevented the index from ending the year in negative territory. The Coincident Economic Indicator (CEI) had a little more consistent quarter than the LEI, advancing to 175.7 in October and 176.3 in November (up 0.3% both months). However, the gains were reversed in December when the index declined to 175.4 (down 0.5 percent). Non-farm employment, which is a key part of this recovery declined in November and December down 0.3 and 0.2 percent, respectively. Retail employment had a difficult time expanding during the holiday season. Stores cut payrolls 0.7 and 1.7 percent during the last two months of the quarter, traditionally the busiest season of the year. Georgia's unemployment rate resided at 4.0 percent in December, a significant decline from the 5.1 percent rate posted for the same time period in 2002. Tax revenue collected by the state increased 4.9 percent in November then declined 1.6 percent in December. Over the year, the leading indicators went from 172.8 to 181.2 (a 4.8% increase), which was lower than the annual increase of 5.9 percent posted in 2002. The coincident indicators started at 167.4 and ended the year at 175.4 (up 4.8%) more then doubling the annual increase of 1.8 percent in 2002. 4 Economic Indicators / Fourth Quarter 2003 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Nonagricultural Employment change from previous month Retail Employment change from previous month Manufacturing Employment change from previous month Manufacturing Workweek (hours) change from previous month Weekly Manufacturing Earnings change from previous month Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled change from previous month Initial Unemployment Claims change from previous month Continued Unemployment Claims change from previous month Unemployment rate (not seasonally adjusted) change from previous month Insured Unemployment Rate change from previous month New Motor Vehicle Sales change from previous month Residential Construction ( building permits ) change from previous month Nonresidential Construction ( dollar value ) change from previous month New Business Corporations change from previous month Total State Revenues ( in millions ) change from previous month Deflated State Revenues ( in millions ) change from previous month Georgia Department of Labor December 2003 3,951,043 -0.27% 453,117 -1.71% 448,504 -0.34% 38.7 -2.04% $546.41 -1.19% 12,636 -13.59% 53,200 34.54% 295,243 13.39% 4.0% - - 1.77% - - 46,219 13.55% 9,410 27.56% $360,930,053 -4.03% 6,496 15.71% $1,123,262,498 -1.67% 609,473,700 -1.56% November 2003 3,961,744 -0.34% 461,013 -0.79% 450,036 0.09% 39.5 2.25% $552.98 1.00% 14,624 7.56% 39,542 -4.22% 260,374 -8.48% 4.1% - - 1.78% - - 40,703 -4.01% 7,377 -17.86% $376,092,678 1.67% 5,614 -12.85% $1,142,350,691 4.97% 619,159,900 5.25% October 2003 3,975,231 - - 464,683 - - 449,638 - - 38.6 - - $547.51 - - 13,597 - - 41,284 - - 284,485 - - 4.4% - - 1.80% - - 42,403 - - 8,981 - - $369,923,668 - - 6,442 - - $1,088,272,696 - - 588,254,100 - - Economic Indicators / Fourth Quarter 2003 5 MILLIONS THOUSANDS GEORGIA 4. 02 2002 2003 3. 98 44. 2 42. 7 2002 2003 3. 95 41. 3 HOURS 3. 91 39. 8 3. 88 Nonagricultural Employment 3. 84 500 480 460 440 DOLLARS 38. 4 36. 9 $ 595 $ 575 $ 555 $ 535 Manufacturing Workweek 420 Retail Employment 400 510 $ 515 Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $ 495 $ 340 490 $ 325 470 $ 310 DOLLARS 450 $ 295 430 $ 280 Manufacturing Employment Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings 410 $ 265 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D Employment 2002: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2003: Q1 Q2 Q3 Oct Nov Dec Nonag 3,917,900 3,907,837 3,900,149 3,897,861 3,909,766 3,921,513 3,955,801 3,975,231 3,961,744 3,951,043 Retail 453,237 456,186 453,215 454,103 461,004 459,416 461,006 464,683 461,013 453,117 Mfg. 471,521 472,759 473,759 469,658 461,490 447,275 450,143 449,638 450,036 448,504 All graphs contain monthly data and are seasonally adjusted, except where noted. Manufacturing Avg. Work Week Weekly Earnings 41.1 $549.23 41.1 545.70 40.7 534.06 40.7 560.83 40.6 564.46 40.5 573.35 39.3 546.35 38.6 547.51 39.5 552.98 38.7 546.41 Deflated Wkly Earnings $308.73 303.45 295.71 309.57 308.44 312.17 296.04 295.95 299.72 296.48 THOUSANDS 6 Economic Indicators / Fourth Quarter 2003 Georgia Department of Labor THOUSANDS THOUSANDS GEORGIA 19.7 2002 2003 16.2 6.3 2002 2003 5.7 PERCENTAGES 12.7 5.2 9.2 4.6 5.7 4.1 Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled 2.2 3.5 99.6 3.26 80.9 2.76 Unemployment Rate PERCENTAGES 62.1 2.26 43.4 1.76 24.6 Initial Unemployment Claims 5.9 550 1.26 Insured Unemployment Rate 0.76 63 450 56 THOUSANDS 350 50 250 43 150 Continued Unemployment Claims 50 J F M A M J J A S O N D 37 New Motor Vehicle Sales 30 J F M A M J J A S O N D THOUSANDS 2002: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2003: Q1 Q2 Q3 Oct Nov Dec Job Openings 9,214 9,697 10,246 10,690 11,486 11,649 14,137 13,597 14,624 12,636 Initial Claims 46,376 49,953 44,835 50,556 49,032 58,777 52,722 41,284 39,542 53,200 1 Rate at the end of each quarter, except for monthly rates. * Estimate used, actual data not available. Georgia Department of Labor Unemployment Continued Claims 309,885 Rate 1 5.1% 342,513 5.7% 321,650 5.4% 303,933 5.1% 299,701 4.7% 330,848 5.4% 314,854 4.6% 284,485 4.4% 260,374 4.1% 295,243 4.0% Insured 1 2.06% 1.94% 1.96% 2.19% 1.99% 2.03% 1.91% 1.80% 1.78% 1.77% New Motor Vehicle Sales 46,658 43,752 47,308 42,452 45,229 40,931 45,609 *42,403 40,703 46,219 Economic Indicators / Fourth Quarter 2003 7 HOUSEHOLD UNITS MILLIONS GEORGIA 10, 277 9, 388 2002 2003 8, 499 7, 609 6, 720 Residential Construction 5, 831 $ 810 $ 672 $ 534 $ 396 $ 258 Nonresidential Construction $ 120 $ 675 MILLIONS CHARTERS 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 $ 1,683 $ 1,466 $ 1,250 $ 1,033 $ 817 $ 600 $ 940 2002 2003 New Business Corporations Total State Revenue $ 550 $ 823 MILLIONS $ 425 $ 706 $ 300 $ 589 $ 175 $ 50 J Deflated Nonresidential Construction F M A M J J A S O N $ 472 $ 355 D J Deflated Total State Revenue F M A M J J A S O N D MILLIONS Construction Residential 2 Non-residential 1 Deflated non-res 1 2002: Q1 7,794 Q2 8,400 Q3 7,861 Q4 7,970 2003: Q1 7,350 Q2 6,927 Q3 8,759 Oct 8,981 Nov 7,377 Dec 9,410 1 Data rounded 2 Household units 3 Includes limited liability companies $441,608,000 448,637,000 436,092,000 492,563,000 408,989,000 398,846,000 488,170,000 369,924,000 376,093,000 360,930,000 $356,710,800 362,193,500 351,592,600 391,337,100 318,858,400 309,743,200 377,062,300 281,311,000 284,487,900 273,018,200 8 Economic Indicators / Fourth Quarter 2003 New Business Corporations 3 5,236 4,785 5,180 5,186 4,950 5,757 5,497 6,442 5,614 6,496 Total State Revenue 1 Deflated Rev. 1 $1,040,070,000 1,131,250,000 1,004,900,000 1,073,530,000 1,037,440,000 1,104,810,000 1,042,300,000 1,088,270,000 1,142,350,000 1,123,260,000 $584,637,400 629,054,700 556,423,000 592,564,900 566,907,100 601,529,900 564,728,200 588,254,100 619,159,900 609,473,700 Georgia Department of Labor Consumer Price Index for Atlanta YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Rate * 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 76.4 87.2 92.8 97.9 102.6 107.0 111.7 78.0 88.2 92.9 98.7 103.2 107.6 111.1 159.5 161.9 167.4 175.3 176.1 180.7 160.8 164.0 169.8 176.6 178.6 182.1 * Annual rate of increase from December to December 80.3 89.3 96.5 100.2 104.1 108.8 112.2 115.5 119.1 124.9 130.8 135.5 138.6 142.2 146.7 150.3 154.7 158.3 162.0 164.8 170.9 177.8 179.1 181.5 81.7 91.6 98.0 100.8 104.8 109.9 112.4 161.9 165.9 172.1 176.9 179.7 181.7 83.0 93.3 98.8 100.9 105.4 110.4 112.7 162.0 166.5 171.9 176.7 179.4 180.1 85.7 93.6 98.2 101.9 105.5 111.2 113.5 117.5 121.7 127.3 132.6 136.2 138.5 144.7 146.7 151.5 157.2 159.5 161.6 167.0 171.9 174.8 177.3 179.0 15.8% 9.2% 4.9% 3.8% 3.5% 5.4% 2.1% 3.8% 3.3% 4.7% 4.4% 3.2% 1.9% 3.5% 2.3% 2.9% 3.4% 1.9% 1.4% 3.3% 2.9% 1.7% 1.4% 1.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics @ www.bls.gov The CPI for Atlanta Moves Lower in 2003 The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) for Atlanta decreased 0.6 percent over the two months ending in December to a level of 179.0 (1982-84=100), not seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. For the 12-months ending in December, the CPI-U for Atlanta increased 1.0 percent. Over the two months, lower costs for housing, apparel and transportation accounted for almost all of the decrease in the all items index. Energy costs advanced 0.7 percent after falling 11.4 percent in the two month period ending in October. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U for Atlanta declined 1.2 percent over the past two months. Over the past 12 months, the CPI-U for Atlanta has increased 1.0 percent. During that time period, energy costs advanced 8.3 percent. Excluding the cost of food and energy, the CPI-U for Atlanta decreased 0.6 percent in calendar year 2003. Over the past two months, the index for housing dropped 0.8 percent, its third consecutive bimonthly decrease. Lower costs for shelter (-1.1 percent) accounted for almost all of the decrease in the housing index. Fuels and utilities costs rose 1.9 percent since October due to a 6.8 percent increase in the cost of utility natural gas service. Over the year, housing costs increased 0.7 percent. Costs for shelter declined 0.1 percentage point, while the index for electricity dropped 0.2 percent and costs for utility natural gas service increased 17.7 percent. Since October, apparel costs have decreased 8.5 percent. This is the largest bimonthly decrease for this index since December 2002. Over the past 12 months, apparel costs in Atlanta declined 7.7 percent, the largest calendar year decline in apparel prices since 1998. The transportation index fell 0.8 percent in the November December pricing period due to falling gasoline costs. The index for gasoline decreased 1.5 percent over the two months. Over the year, transportation costs have risen 1.7 percent, as gasoline costs climbed 10.8 percent. The medical care index recorded a 0.3 percent increase over the two months bringing it to a level 1.5 percent higher than in December 2002. Georgia Department of Labor Economic Indicators / Fourth Quarter 2003 9 Metro Atlanta Index of Economic Indicators 184.9 Leading indicators Coincident indicators 165.6 146.3 127.1 107.8 1995-96 = 100 88.5 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 Atlanta's Coincident Indicators Continue Streak Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted. *** Atlanta's Economic Indicator's ended the year in a modest fashion. Both indexes posted gains during most of the fourth quarter. The Leading Economic Indicators, which reflects activity that will impact the economy (up to two quarters) into the future, contracted initially. The index declined during the month of holloween (175.2,-0.6%), then posted back-to-back gains in November (177.2,+1.1%) and December (178.2,+0.5%). The index's largest decline was in the value of commercial construction put in place, starting the week of labor day, revenue had reached $382 million by the end of the month, then declined to $193 million by New Year's Eve. Permits for residential construction started off the first two months of the reporting period in negative territory before registering a double-digit gain in December. Average weekly manufacturing hours worked in the fourth quarter declined to 35.9, down from the 36.4 weekly average in the previous quarter. Declines in initial jobless claims aided the index's advance in November and December. The Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI), which measures current economic conditions, continued its streak of gains adding another quarter of consecutive increases. Unemployment in the metro area declined from 4.5 percent in October to 4.0 percent matching the jobless rate for the state in December. As the job situation brightens the jobless rate may increase due to more discouraged workers re-entering the job market. The insured unemployment rate declined from 1.68 percent in October to 1.54 percent in December. Holiday sales were better then last year's, but did not measure up to most retailers' forecast. Employment in the retail sector declined during the final three months of the year. Overall, the economy in the metro area seems to be moving along in a step-wise fashion. Low interest rates and bonus depreciation for business investment (see note at the bottom of page 2 for details) will help to increase business spending, which should translate into more hiring. 10 Economic Indicators / Fourth Quarter 2003 Georgia Department of Labor Metro Atlanta Dec-2003 Nov-2003 Oct-2003 Percent Change Nov-2003 to Dec-2003 Percent Change Oct-2003 to Nov-2003 Nonagricultural Employment 2,224,152 Wholesale Employment 133,487 Retail Employment 244,162 Accommodation and Food Services Employment 175,849 Manufacturing Employment 160,815 Government Employment 293,239 Construction Employment 125,851 Trans., Warehousing and Utilities Employment 107,640 Financial Activities Employment 146,942 Professional and Business Services Employment 384,215 Hospital Services Employment 59,162 Social Assistance Employment 24,776 Manufacturing Workweek 35.9 Manufacturing Earnings $539.31 Deflated Manufacturing Earnings $292.63 Initial Unemployment Claims 11,706 Continued Unemployment Claims 156,916 Total Unemployment Rate ( not seasonally adjusted ) 4.0 Insured Unemployment Rate 1.54% MARTA Passengers 5,669,000 Cobb County Transit Passengers 227,791 Residential Construction (household units) 6,408 Nonresidential Construction (value) $193,536,000 Deflated Nonresidential Construction $145,400,000 Hotel Occupancy #N/A Average Hotel Room Rates #N/A Deflated Average Hotel Room Rate #N/A Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate 5.91% Average 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate 5.24% Average One-Year Adjustable Mortgage Rate 3.57% 2,236,563 134,070 248,302 174,565 163,008 291,345 125,480 107,416 148,319 388,668 59,379 24,819 36.2 $531.55 $288.10 10,511 139,857 4.1 1.67% 5,248,000 211,341 5,146 $198,519,000 $149,700,000 #N/A #N/A #N/A 5.96% 5.25% 3.48% 2,236,468 131,792 250,365 176,112 162,103 292,997 125,565 106,942 147,483 390,117 59,249 24,724 35.8 $521.61 $281.95 12,462 142,185 4.5 1.68% 5,817,000 214,082 6,424 $167,324,000 $127,000,000 #N/A #N/A #N/A 6.01% 5.28% 3.51% -0.55% 0.00% -0.43% 1.73% -1.67% -0.82% 0.74% -0.88% -1.35% 0.56% 0.65% -0.56% 0.30% -0.07% 0.21% 0.44% -0.93% 0.57% -1.15% -0.37% -0.37% 0.22% -0.18% 0.39% -0.79% 1.07% 1.46% 1.91% 1.57% 2.18% 11.37% -15.66% 12.20% -1.64% - - - - 8.02% -9.78% 7.78% -1.28% 24.52% -19.89% -2.51% 18.64% -2.87% 17.87% - - #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A - - - - - - Georgia Department of Labor Economic Indicators / Fourth Quarter 2003 11 MILLIONS THOUSANDS Metro Atlanta 2. 30 2. 26 2002 2003 2. 23 2. 19 2. 16 Nonagricultural Employment 2. 12 150 145 140 135 130 Wholesale Employment 125 270 THOUSANDS THOUSANDS 300 2002 2003 250 200 150 100 Accommodation and Food Services 50 220 200 180 160 140 Manufacturing Employment 120 310 260 300 THOUSANDS 250 290 240 280 230 Retail Employment 220 J F M A M J J A S O N D 270 Government Employment 260 J F M A M J J A S O N D THOUSANDS Period 2002 :Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2003 :Q1 Q2 Q3 Oct Nov Dec Nonag 2,179,602 2,187,850 2,170,072 2,165,678 2,179,868 2,195,027 2,222,259 2,236,468 2,236,563 2,224,152 Wholesale 142,714 143,538 140,903 140,245 140,839 135,164 133,491 131,792 134,070 133,487 Employment Retail Accom. & Food Services 247,873 249,841 248,473 247,770 250,854 248,660 250,872 250,365 248,302 244,162 167,837 172,037 167,944 166,992 167,285 173,256 172,211 176,112 174,565 175,849 Manufacturing 171,189 173,126 169,593 169,181 167,983 163,887 162,171 162,103 163,008 160,815 Government 278,665 282,007 286,104 288,326 290,146 287,337 287,022 292,997 291,345 293,239 12 Economic Indicators / Fourth Quarter 2003 Georgia Department of Labor THOUSANDS THOUSANDS Metro Atlanta 132 2002 2003 126 420 2002 2003 400 120 380 THOUSANDS 114 360 108 Construction Employment 102 340 Professional and Business Services Employment 320 140 80 130 70 THOUSANDS 120 60 110 50 100 40 Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Employment 90 30 155 40 Hospital Services Employment 151 35 147 30 THOUSANDS 143 25 139 Financial Activities Employment 20 Social Assistance Employment 135 J F M A M J 15 J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D Period 2002 :Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2003 :Q1 Q2 Q3 Oct Nov Dec Construction 121,539 118,075 116,408 116,369 118,618 120,629 121,884 125,565 125,480 125,851 Trans, Ware & Utilities 115,924 116,827 113,881 111,873 112,559 108,413 108,538 106,942 107,416 107,640 Employment Financial Activities Professional & Business Services 148,163 146,444 145,135 145,488 144,536 144,455 145,622 147,483 148,319 146,942 363,112 365,666 359,489 355,674 359,355 375,996 384,846 390,117 388,668 384,215 Hospital Services 56,012 55,545 55,074 56,032 57,246 57,804 59,193 59,249 59,379 59,162 Social Assistance 24,971 25,311 25,183 25,330 26,089 24,881 26,711 24,724 24,819 24,776 THOUSANDS Georgia Department of Labor Economic Indicators / Fourth Quarter 2003 13 HOURS DOLLARS Metro Atlanta 43.0 41.0 2002 2003 39.0 37.0 35.0 33.0 $675 Manufacturing Workweek $635 $595 $555 $515 Manufacturing Earnings $475 475 THOUSANDS THOUSANDS 26. 9 21. 9 2002 2003 16. 9 11. 9 6. 9 Initial Unemployment Claims 1. 9 275 225 175 125 75 Continued Unemployment Claims 25 7.0 420 365 310 255 Deflated Manufacturing Earnings 200 J F M A M J J A S O N D PERCENTAGES 6.0 5.0 4.0 Unemployment Rate 3.0 J F M A M J J A S O N D DOLLARS Period 2002 :Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2003 :Q1 Q2 Q3 Oct Nov Dec Work Week (hrs) 40.1 40.0 39.0 39.5 39.3 38.7 36.4 35.8 36.2 35.9 Manufacturing Weekly Earnings $617.37 607.08 592.97 603.96 595.25 588.50 539.10 521.61 531.55 539.31 Deflated Earnings $347.00 337.58 328.33 333.37 325.28 320.42 292.13 281.95 288.10 292.63 14 Economic Indicators / Fourth Quarter 2003 Initial Claims 13,434 14,878 13,060 13,623 13,272 15,564 13,186 12,462 10,511 11,706 Unemployment Continued Claims 171,515 186,676 173,034 163,621 158,677 178,406 161,618 142,185 139,857 156,916 Rate 5.2% 5.9% 5.6% 5.2% 4.7% 5.5% 4.8% 4.5% 4.1% 4.0% Georgia Department of Labor PERCENTAGES MILLIONS Metro Atlanta 2. 9 2002 2003 2. 5 2. 1 1. 7 1. 3 Insured Unemployment Rate 0. 9 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 MARTA Passengers 4.5 250 MILLIONS HOUSEHOLD UNITS ( THOUSANDS ) 7. 5 6. 6 5. 8 4. 9 4. 1 3. 2 $600 $480 $360 $240 $120 $0 $431 2002 2003 Residential Construction Nonresidential Construction 225 $346 200 $261 MILLIONS 175 $176 150 Cobb Community Transit Passengers $91 Deflated Nonresidential Construction 125 J F M A M J J A S O N D $6 J F M A M J J A S O N D THOUSANDS Period 2002 :Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2003 :Q1 Q2 Q3 Oct Nov Dec Insured Unemployment Rate 2 2.06% 1.96% 1.83% 1.84% 1.81% 1.93% 1.75% 1.68% 1.67% 1.54% Transit Passengers MARTA 1 5,618,800 5,637,400 5,361,200 5,456,900 5,476,300 5,570,400 5,506,000 5,816,700 5,247,800 5,668,600 Cobb Community 175,120 167,733 178,376 193,958 191,127 190,276 202,328 214,082 211,341 227,791 Construction Residential 3 5,181 5,721 5,180 5,442 4,831 4,623 6,149 6,424 5,146 6,408 Nonresidential 1 $296,865,000 283,007,000 290,063,000 285,491,000 236,366,000 250,483,000 290,529,000 167,324,000 198,519,000 193,536,000 Deflated Non-res $239,766,667 228,500,000 233,766,667 226,833,333 184,166,667 194,866,667 223,733,333 127,000,000 149,700,000 145,400,000 1 Data rounded 2 Rate at the end of each quarter, except for monthly rates. Georgia Department of Labor 3 Household units Economic Indicators / Fourth Quarter 2003 15 PERCENTAGES DOLLARS Metro Atlanta 75 2002 2003 69 7. 60 7. 00 2002 2003 PERCENTAGES 63 6. 40 56 5. 80 50 Hotel Occupancy 44 $87 $82 5. 20 Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates 4. 60 7.10 6.48 $78 5.86 PERCENTAGES $74 $69 Average Hotel Room Rates $65 $49 5.24 4.62 Average 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates 4.00 7.41 $47 6.21 PERCENTAGES $44 5.01 $41 3.81 $38 2.61 Deflated Average Hotel Room Rates Average One-Year Adjustable Mortgage Rates $35 1.41 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D DOLLARS Period Occupancy % 2002 :Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2003 :Q1 Q2 Q3 Oct Nov Dec 60.2% 57.8% 57.7% 58.2% 56.8% 55.3% #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 1 Rate does not include points Hotel Data Room Rates $77.65 77.55 75.75 77.10 74.18 72.16 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 16 Economic Indicators / Fourth Quarter 2003 Deflated Room Rates $43.65 43.13 41.94 42.56 40.54 39.29 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 3 0 - Ye a r Fixed 1 7.00% 6.60% 6.16% 6.00% 5.74% 5.22% 6.20% 6.01% 5.96% 5.91% Mortgage Rates 1 5 - Ye a r Fixed 1 O n e - Ye a r Rate Adjustable 1 6.55% 6.11% 5.58% 5.40% 5.10% 4.61% 5.47% 5.28% 5.25% 5.24% 4.98% 4.29% 4.20% 3.63% 3.43% 3.18% 3.66% 3.51% 3.48% 3.57% Georgia Department of Labor Dear Subscriber to Economic Indicators: Several new methods for releasing the Economic Indicators publication have been introduced within the last few years. 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