Georgia-Atlanta economic indicators. Quarterly report, Vol. 9, no. 3 (Third quarter 2003)

Economic Indicators

A Quarterly Report of Georgia and Metro Atlanta Labor Market and Economic Trends

Third Quarter 2003

Volume 9, Issue 3

Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner

Georgia-Atlanta Economic Indicators
Quarterly Report Third Quarter - 2003
Volume 9, Issue 3

Cover art: The Fox Theatre, Atlanta, Georgia by Huey J. Theus, Mableton, Georgia
The Georgia-Atlanta Economic Indicators, Quarterly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 232-3875.
Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us

Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner

Equal Opportunity Employer/Programs - Auxiliary Aids and Services Available Upon Request to Individuals With Disabilities

Georgia Department of Labor

Economic Indicators / Third Quarter 2003

Contents
History ............................................................................................................................................................ 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................. 2 U.S. Consumer Price Index ......................................................................................................................... 3 Georgia Index of Economic Indicators ...................................................................................................... 4 Georgia Data Summary ................................................................................................................................ 5
Employment, Manufacturing Wages and Hours .................................................................................... 6 Nonagricultural, Retail, Manufacturing,Workweek, Earnings and Deflated Earnings
Job Openings, Unemployment Data and Vehicle Sales ........................................................................ 7 Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Initial/ Continued Unemployment Claims, Unemployment Rate, Insured Unemployment Rate and New Motor Vehicle Sales
Construction, New Business and State Revenue ................................................................................... 8 Residential/ Nonresidential Construction, Deflated Nonresidential Construction, New Business Corporations, Total/ Deflated State Revenue
Consumer Price Index for the South ......................................................................................................... 9 Metro Atlanta Index of Economic Indicators ........................................................................................... 10 Atlanta Data Summary ................................................................................................................................ 11
Employment Data ......................................................................................................................................... 12 Nonagricultural, Wholesale, Retail, Accommodation and Food Services, Manufacturing and Government
Emloyment Data - Continued ..................................................................................................................... 13 Construction, Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities, Financial Activities, Professional and Business Services, Hospital Services and Social Assistance
Manufacturing Workweek, Earnings and Unemployment Data .......................................................... 14 Manufacturing -Workweek, Earnings and Deflated Earnings, Initial/ Continued Unemployment Claims and Unemployment Rates
Unemployment Data, Transit and Construction Data ............................................................................ 15 Insured Unemployment Rate, Marta Passengers, Cobb Community Transit Passengers, Residential/ Nonresidential Construction and Deflated Nonresidential Construction
Hotel and Mortgage Rates ......................................................................................................................... 16 Hotel Occupancy, Average Hotel Room Rates, Deflated Average Hotel Room Rates, Average 30-Year/ 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates and Average One-Year Adjustable Mortgage Rates

History
The Fox Theatre is a premier example of the American movie palace. "The Fabulous Fox" is one of the most ornate movie palaces remaining in the country, and one of the largest (250,000 square feet) movie theaters ever built. It opened on Christmas Day, 1929, near the end of the golden age of the American movie palace. The Fox was not originally intended to be a movie theater. The building was originally planned and designed to be the new headquarters for the Shriners of Atlanta.
In 1927, the Yaarab Temple held a design competition for their new headquarters building. A local architectural firm submitted the winning design, a flamboyant interpretation of a mosque with onion domes, towers, horsehoe and lancet arches, and a minaret. TheYaarab Temple Shriners loved the design, but they soon found out that the cost to build their new headquarters was more than their budget. The Yaarab Temple subsequently signed a lease to share the building with movie mogul William Fox, the president of the Fox Theater Corporation and the Fox Film Corporation. The cornerstone was laid on June 14, 1928, and The Fox Theatre opened 18 months later on December 25, 1929. The Yaarab Temple dedicated their new mosque a week later on New Year's Day.
The exterior of the building and most of the interior are based on historic Islamic architecture. Several interior spaces are based on historic Egyptian architecture, including the Egyptian Ballroom, the Yaarab Temple's former banquet hall and ballroom. The Fox includes features and details borrowed from historic mosques constructed from the 10th to the 16th centuries all the way from southern Spain to north Africa, the Mideast, and northern India.
Because of the Great Depression, the Fox Theatre closed only 125 weeks after it opened. Members of the Yaarab Temple could not meet their pledges, and by 1932, William Fox was bankrupt. In December 1932, the mortgage was foreclosed and the theater did not get back on a sound financial footing until later in the 1930s. A new partnership called Mosque Inc. acquired The Fabulous Fox and it prospered as one of Atlanta's finest movie houses from the 1940s through the 1960s.
The Fox was a successful theater for longer than most American movie palaces which had to compete with suburban development, drive-in movies, and television in the 1950s. And the Fox survived longer than most, in large part because Atlanta loved the Fox. By 1974, however, The Fox was an endangered property. A large corporation wanted the theater site on Peachtree Street for its new high-rise headquarters and tried to have the building razed before the property changed hands.
Uncharacteristically for Atlanta, a grass-roots campaign to "Save the Fox" quickly emerged, championed by a group of local high school students who picketed in front of the theater and attracted media attention at a critical time. Aided by the mayor, the city's new Urban Design Commission, and a new non-profit organization, Atlanta Landmarks, Inc., the campaign was a success. Atlanta Landmarks purchased the Fox in the summer of 1975 and paid the mortgage in 1978, shortly before the repayment deadline. Since that time, the Fox has been financially successful as a multi-purpose performing arts center, and Atlanta Landmarks has spent more than $20 million restoring, rehabilitating, and maintaining the huge building. The Fox Theatre was designated a National Historic Landmark in 1976.

Introduction

G eorgia Economic Indicators, Quarterly Report, is designed to provide in a single publication data on a
number of indicators used to measure movement of the state's economy.
Our publication has changed.
The Georgia and Metropolitan Altanta Economic Indicator series, previously published as two separate monthly publications, are now published as a single quarterly publication. Graphs will continue to display data in monthly increments; whereas, companion data tables will display the 3-month average for each series (for 7 quarters) before alternating to a monthly format for the most recent quarter.
All data except those contained in the U.S. and the Consumer Price Index for the South chart on Pages 3 and 9 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data that have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars.
Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually.
Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning Georgia Economic Indicators, Quarterly Report and Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Bill Webb, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 232-3875.

Data Sources

Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Manufacturing Workweek and Employment data. -- Georgia Department of Labor
Consumer Price Index -- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, adapted from commentary by Michael Wald New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group MARTA Passengers -- Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit System CCT Passengers -- Cobb Community Transit System Hotel Occupancy and Room Rates -- Smith Travel Research, Hendersonville, TN Mortgage Rates -- HSH Associates, Financial Publishers, Butler, NJ Retail Trends -- Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, Ltd.
* Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center

2 Economic Indicators / Third Quarter 2003

Georgia Department of Labor

Consumer Price Index

Chart is not seasonally adjusted

YEAR 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

JAN
127.4 134.6 138.1 142.6 146.2 150.3 154.4 159.1 161.6 164.3 168.7 175.1 177.1 181.7

FEB
128.0 134.8 138.6 143.1 146.7 150.9 154.9 159.6 161.9 164.5 169.7 175.8 177.8 183.1

MAR
128.7 135.0 139.3 143.6 147.2 151.4 155.7 160.0 162.2 165.0 171.1 176.2 178.8 184.2

APR
128.9 135.2 139.5 144.0 147.4 151.9 156.3 160.2 162.5 166.2 171.2 176.9 179.8 183.8

MAY
129.2 135.6 139.7 144.2 147.5 152.2 156.6 160.1 162.8 166.2 171.3 177.7 179.8 183.5

JUN
129.9 136.0 140.2 144.4 148.0 152.5 156.7 160.3 163.0 166.2 172.3 178.0 179.9 183.7

JUL
130.4 136.2 140.5 144.4 148.4 152.5 157.0 160.5 163.2 166.7 172.6 177.5 180.1 183.9

AUG
131.6 136.6 140.9 144.8 149.0 152.9 157.3 160.8 163.4 167.1 172.8 177.5 180.7 184.6

SEP
132.7 137.2 141.3 145.1 149.4 153.2 157.8 161.2 163.6 167.9 173.7 178.3 181.0 185.2

OCT
133.5 137.4 141.9 145.7 149.5 153.7 158.3 161.6 164.0 168.2 174.0 177.7 181.3

NOV
133.8 137.8 142.0 145.8 149.7 153.6 158.6 161.5 164.0 168.3 174.1 177.4 181.3

DEC
133.8 137.9 141.9 145.8 149.7 153.5 158.6 161.3 163.9 168.3 174.0 176.7 180.9

AVG
130.7 136.2 140.3 144.5 148.2 152.4 156.9 160.5 163.0 166.6 172.1 177.1 179.9

CPI RATE
6.1% 3.1% 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 3.3% 1.7% 1.6% 2.7% 3.4% 1.6% 2.4%

Source: U.S. Bureau Of Labor Statistics @www.bls.gov

CPI Increases 0.3 Percent in September

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in September, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. The September level of 185.2 (198284=100) was 2.3 percent higher than its level in September 2002.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U rose 0.3 percent in September, the same as in August. Energy costs advanced sharply for the second consecutive month--up 3.0 percent in September, reflecting a 6.3 percent increase in the index for gasoline. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent in September, the same as in August. A smaller increase in the index for shelter was offset by larger increases in the index for medical care and apparel.
Consumer prices increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 3.1 percent in the third quarter of 2003, following an increase at a 5.2 percent rate in the first quarter and a decline at a 0.7 percent rate in

the second quarter. This brings the year-to-date annual rate to 2.5 percent and compares with an increase of 2.4 percent in all of 2002.
The CPI-U excluding food and energy advanced at a 1.5 percent SAAR in the third quarter, following an increase at a 0.8 and 1.0 percent in the first two quarters of 2003. The advance at a 1.1 percent SAAR for the first nine months of the 2003 compares with a 1.9 percent rise in all of 2002. Smaller increases in the indexes for shelter and medical care were largely responsible for the deceleration.
The index for housing increased 0.1 percent in September, the same as in August. Shelter costs rose 0.1 percent in September, following an increase of 0.2 percent in August. The index for fuels and utilities increased 0.2 percent in September. A 0.6 percent increase in the index for electricity more than offset declines in the indexes for fuel oil and natural gas, down 1.9 and 0.4 percent, respectively. For the 12 months ended in September, charges for natural gas have risen 24.8 percent, fuel oil prices, 12.1 percent,

and charges for electricity, 3.8 percent. The index for household furnishings and operations declined for the seventh consecutive month, down 0.4 percent in September.
The transportation index increased 0.9 percent in September. The index for gasoline advanced for the fourth consecutive month up 6.3 percent in September. As of September the price of gasoline was 0.6 percent below its peak level of March 2003. The index for new vehicles, which turned up in August, declined 0.4 percent in September. The index for public transportation declined 0.5 percent in September, reflecting declines in airline and other intercity transportation fares.
The index for apparel, which rose 0.1 percent in August, increased 0.5 percent in September. Medical care costs rose 0.5 percent in September and are 4.0 percent higher than a year ago.

Georgia Department of Labor

Economic Indicators / Third Quarter 2003 3

Georgia Index of Economic Indicators
208
Leading indicators Coincident indicators
181

154

128

101
1990 = 100

74 1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

Georgia's Economic Indicators Fall In-Line With Expectations

Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted.
*** The Georgia Department of Labor's Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) continued its advance into the third quarter, completing 6 months of consecutive gains. Two quarters of back-to-back gains seems more like a recovery trend than another false start. The Leading Economic Indicator pressed forward in July to 178.3 (up 0.4%), then backed off in August (advancing 0.1%) moving the index up slightly to the level of 178.6. In September the index closed out the quarter with a 1.1 percent gain, moving up to 180.7. In August slower sales of new motor vehicles (down 3.7%) along with a decline in commercial construction (contracted 2.0%)

kept gains to a minimum. However, in September a reversal in construction (up 29.8%) and a smaller decline in sales of new vehicles (down 0.8%) helped push the indicator forward. Initial jobless claims declined 6.4 percent in August then increased 9.6 percent the following month. New business filings and residential construction permits were up in August and September.
The Coincident Economic Indicator (CEI) started the quarter off slow, barely moving up to 170.6, in July. Then in August the index accelerated to 173.4 (up 1.6%). The CEI ended the quarter at a level of 175.4 (up 1.1% in September). Tax refund checks and back to school spending

certainly helped the retail sector in the third quarter. Retail employment increased 0.2 percent in August and 0.9 percent in September. Unemployment declined onetenth of a percent to 4.6 percent as the insured unemployment rate remained unchanged. State revenues increased 6.8 and 19.6 percent in August and September, respectively.
Local economists forecasted a turn-around the second half of the year and the Economic Indicators' performance in the third quarter seems to be in line with expectations.

4 Economic Indicators / Third Quarter 2003

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia
Nonagricultural Employment change from previous month
Retail Employment change from previous month
Manufacturing Employment change from previous month
Manufacturing Workweek (hours) change from previous month
Weekly Manufacturing Earnings change from previous month
Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled change from previous month
Initial Unemployment Claims change from previous month
Continued Unemployment Claims change from previous month
Unemployment rate (not seasonally adjusted) change from previous month
Insured Unemployment Rate change from previous month
New Motor Vehicle Sales change from previous month
Residential Construction ( building permits ) change from previous month
Nonresidential Construction ( dollar value ) change from previous month
New Business Corporations change from previous month
Total State Revenues ( in millions ) change from previous month
Deflated State Revenues ( in millions ) change from previous month
* Current data not available, estimate used. Georgia Department of Labor

September 2003
3,970,034 0.28%
464,156 0.90%
448,757 -0.19%
39.0 0.22%
$538.08 0.34%
13,581 -4.07%
54,777 9.60%
365,859 23.44%
4.6% - -
1.91% - -
44,786* -0.82%
9,903 20.46%
$573,013,264 29.88%
5,955 7.48%
$1,194,596,602 19.67%
645,032,400 19.28%

August 2003
3,958,817 0.51%
460,018 0.26%
449,610 -0.54%
38.9 -2.71%
$536.26 -5.04%
14,158 -3.50%
49,980 -6.42%
296,389 4.99%
4.7% - -
1.91% - -
45,154 -3.70%
8,221 0.81%
$441,177,613 -2.03%
5,541 10.91%
$998,264,163 6.88%
540,769,200 6.47%

July 2003 3,938,551
- -
458,845 - -
452,062 - -
40.0 - -
$564.71 - -
14,672 - -
53,408 - -
282,314 - -
5.3% - -
1.98% - -
46,889 - -
8,154 - -
$450,319,149 - -
4,996 - -
$934,025,328 - -
507,901,000 - -

Economic Indicators / Third Quarter 2003 5

MILLIONS

THOUSANDS

GEORGIA
4.02
2001-2002 2002-2003
3.98

44. 2 42. 7

2001-2002 2002-2003

3.93

41. 3

HOURS

3.89

39. 8

3.84
Nonagricultural Employment
3.80
500

38. 4
Manufacturing Workweek
36. 9
$ 610

480

$ 580

460

$ 550

DOLLARS

440

$ 520

420
Retail Employment
400
550

$ 490
Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings
$ 460
$ 340

520

$ 325

490

$ 310

DOLLARS

460

$ 295

430

$ 280

Manufacturing Employment

Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings

400

$ 265

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

Employment

2001: Q4 2002: Q1
Q2 Q3 Q4 2003: Q1 Q2 Jul Aug Sep

Nonag
3,904,177 3,917,900 3,907,837 3,900,149 3,897,861 3,909,766 3,921,513 3,938,551 3,958,817 3,970,034

Retail
453,450 453,237 456,186 453,215 454,103 461,004 459,416 458,845 460,018 464,156

Mfg.
478,563 471,521 472,759 473,759 469,658 461,490 447,275 452,062 449,610 448,757

All graphs contain monthly data and are seasonally adjusted, except where noted.

Manufacturing

Avg. Work Week
40.3 41.1

Weekly Earnings
$516.67 549.23

41.1

545.70

40.7

534.06

40.7

560.83

40.6

564.46

40.5

573.35

40.0

564.71

38.9

536.26

39.0

538.08

Deflated Wkly Earnings
$291.47 308.73 303.45 295.71 309.57 308.44 312.17 307.07 290.50 290.54

THOUSANDS

6 Economic Indicators / Third Quarter 2003

Georgia Department of Labor

THOUSANDS

THOUSANDS

GEORGIA
19.7 2001-2002 2002-2003
16.2
12.7

6.3 2001-2002 2002-2003
5.7
5.2

PERCENTAGES

9.2

4.6

5.7

4.1

Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled

2.2

3.5

99. 6

3. 26

80. 9

2. 76

62. 1

2. 26

Unemployment Rate

PERCENTAGES

43. 4
24. 6
Initial Unemployment Claims
5. 9
550

1. 76
1. 26
Insured Unemployment Rate
0. 76
63

450

56

THOUSANDS

350

50

250

43

150

37

Continued Unemployment Claims

New Motor Vehicle Sales

50

30

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

THOUSANDS

2001: Q4 2002: Q1
Q2 Q3 Q4 2003: Q1 Q2 Jul Aug Sep

Job Openings
7,624 9,214 9,697 10,246 10,690 11,486 11,649 14,672 14,158 13,581

Initial Claims
61,024 46,376 49,953 44,835 50,556 49,032 58,777 53,408 49,980 54,777

1 Rate at the end of each quarter, except for monthly rates. * Current data not available, estimate used.

Georgia Department of Labor

Unemployment

Continued Claims
348,012

Rate 1
4.5%

309,885

5.1%

342,513

5.7%

321,650

5.4%

303,933

5.1%

299,701

4.7%

330,848

5.4%

282,314

5.3%

296,389

4.7%

365,859

4.6%

Insured 1
2.09% 2.06% 1.94% 1.96% 2.19% 1.99% 2.03% 1.98% 1.91% 1.91%

New Motor Vehicle Sales
47,801 46,658 43,752 47,308 42,452 45,229 40,931 46,889 45,154 44,786*

Economic Indicators / Third Quarter 2003

7

HOUSEHOLD UNITS

MILLIONS

GEORGIA

10, 900 9, 800

2001-2002 2002-2003

8, 700

7, 600

6, 500
Residential Construction
5, 400

$ 810

$ 672

$ 534 $ 396

$ 258
Nonresidential Construction
$ 120
$ 675

MILLIONS

CHARTERS

7,123 6,068 5,014 3,959 2,905 1,850 $ 1,683 $ 1,466 $ 1,250 $ 1,033 $ 817 $ 600 $ 940

2001-2002 2002-2003
New Business Corporations
Total State Revenue

$ 550

$ 823

$ 425

$ 706

MILLIONS

$ 300

$ 589

$ 175
Deflated Nonresidential Construction

$ 472
Deflated Total State Revenue

$ 50

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

$ 355

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

MILLIONS

Construction

Residential 2 Non-residential 1 Deflated non-res 1

2001: Q4

7,428

2002: Q1

7,794

Q2

8,400

Q3

7,861

Q4

7,970

2003: Q1

7,350

Q2

6,927

Jul

8,154

Aug

8,221

Sep

9,903

1 Data rounded 2 Household units 3 Includes limited liability companies

$499,825,000 441,608,000 448,637,000 436,092,000 492,563,000 408,989,000 398,846,000 450,319,000 441,178,000 573,013,000

$402,111,800 356,710,800 362,193,500 351,592,600 391,337,100 318,858,400 309,743,200 349,626,600 340,678,000 440,440,400

8 Economic Indicators / Third Quarter 2003

New Business Corporations 3
3,645 5,236 4,785 5,180 5,186 4,950 5,757 4,996 5,541 5,955

Total State

Revenue 1 Deflated Rev. 1

$1,089,340,000 1,040,070,000 1,131,250,000 1,004,900,000 1,073,530,000 1,037,440,000 1,104,810,000
934,030,000 998,260,000 1,194,600,000

$614,520,500 584,637,400 629,054,700 556,423,000 592,564,900 566,907,100 601,529,900 507,901,000 540,769,200 645,032,400

Georgia Department of Labor

Consumer Price Index for the South

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985
1986

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

78.5

80.6

82.2

87.8

89.0

90.4

95.1

94.7

97.0

98.0

98.8

99.6

102.4

103.1

103.6

105.7

106.4

107.1

108.9

107.9

108.7

1987

110.2

110.7

111.1 111.5 111.8 112.2 112.6

1988

114.1

114.4

114.8 115.4 115.6 116.1 116.6

1989

118.9

119.2

119.8 120.8 121.3 121.7 122.0

1990

124.6

125.4

126.0 126.1 126.5 127.3 127.8

1991

131.4

131.7

131.9 132.1 132.5 132.8 133.0

1992

134.4

134.9

135.5 135.9 136.2 136.7 136.8

1993

138.4

139.1

139.7 140.2 140.7 140.8 140.9

1994

142.5

142.9

143.6 143.8 144.3 144.7 145.0

1995

146.7

147.4

148.0 148.4 148.8 149.1 149.2

1996

151.1

151.5

152.4 153.2 153.5 154.0 154.0

1997

155.7

156.1

156.5 156.7 156.6 157.0 157.0

1998

157.6

157.8

158.2 158.5 158.8 159.1 159.3

1999

159.9

160.0

160.6 161.5 161.6 161.7 162.2

2000

164.0

164.7

166.4 166.6 166.6 167.4 167.9

2001

169.3

170.2

170.6 171.4 171.7 172.2 171.6

2002

170.6

171.0

172.1 173.1 173.2 173.5 173.6

2003

175.1

176.4

177.5 177.4 176.8 177.2 177.3

Aug 82.7 91.9 97.6 100.2 104.3 107.6 108.7 112.9 117.0 122.1 128.7 133.3 137.0 141.5 145.5 149.7 154.1 157.1 159.5 162.6 168.0 171.5 173.8 177.9

Sep
113.5 117.7 122.5 129.7 133.8 137.3 141.6 145.8 149.8 154.5 157.5 159.5 163.2 168.5 172.2 174.2 178.3

Oct 84.2 93.0 98.0 101.2 105.1 108.3 109.4 113.8 118.2 123.0 130.7 134.1 137.8 142.2 145.9 150.5 154.9 157.8 159.8 163.6 168.5 171.7 174.9

Nov
114.1 118.3 123.2 130.9 134.4 138.1 142.3 146.0 150.4 155.1 157.8 159.6 163.5 168.6 171.0 174.9

Dec 85.8 94.3 97.8 101.3 105.3 108.7 109.7 114.0 118.5 123.4 130.9 134.3 137.9 142.2 146.1 150.3 155.1 157.3 159.6 163.6 168.4 170.3 174.6

Rate 12.5 9.9 3.7 3.6 3.9 3.2 0.9 3.9 3.9 4.1 6.1 2.6 2.7 3.1 2.7 2.9 3.2 1.4 1.5 2.5 2.9 1.1 2.5

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics @ www.bls.gov

The CPI for the South

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) for the South increased 0.2 percent in September, not seasonally adjusted, to a level of 178.3 (1982-84=100), as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. For the 12-months ending in September, the CPI-U, South increased 2.4 percent.
Over the month, higher costs for apparel and transportation accounted for almost all of the increase in the all items index. Energy costs advanced 1.7 percent, while the index for food rose 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U, South increased 0.1 percent over the month.
Over the past 12 months, the CPIU, South has increased 2.4 percent. During that time period, energy costs climbed 13.6 percent, while
Georgia Department of Labor

Following is the formula for figuring

Consumer Price Index changes from one

point in time to another.

Index point change

CPI

112.5

Less previous index

108.5

Equals index point change

4.0

Percentage change

Index point difference

4.0

Divide by the previous index 108.5

Equals

0.037

Results multiplied by 100 0.037x100

Equals percent change

3.7%

food costs rose 2.7 percent. Excluding the cost of food and energy, the CPI-U, South has increased 1.3 percent since September 2002.
The index for housing dropped 0.1 percent over the month due to lower costs for shelter (-0.2 percent). The index for

fuel and utilities rose 0.4 percent in September. Electricity costs advanced 0.6 percent while costs for utility natural gas service fell 0.1 percent.
Apparel costs increased 4.1 percent over the month, after five consecutive months of decrease. The transportation index increased 0.3 percent in September due to higher gasoline costs for the third consecutive month. Gasoline costs increased 3.2 percent in September after advancing 1.9 percent in July and 5.7 percent in August. Over the last 12 months, the transportation index has risen 3.2 percent, reflecting higher gasoline costs.
Medical care costs rose 0.3 percent in September after increasing 0.2 percent in August. Costs for medical care services increased 0.2 percent.

Economic Indicators / Third Quarter 2003 9

Metro Atlanta Index of Economic Indicators
184.9
Leading indicators Coincident indicators
165.6

146.3

127.1

107.8
1995-96 = 100

88.5

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

Recovery Gains Momentum in Q3

Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted.

***

With the wind in our sails economic activity in the metro area is showing signs of prosperity. As we enter into the final quarter of the year with some momentum, a more robust economy could be awaiting in 2004.
The Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for metropolitan Atlanta moved ahead to 175.1 in July (up 1.0%) then headed south to 172.6 in August (down 1.4 %). Nevertheless, the index recovered gracefully in September moving up to 176.9 (2.4% increase) marking the largest one month gain in over two years.
The LEI index took some hits in August when the manufacturing workweek dropped to 34.8 hours and the value of commercial construction declined 34.8 percent. However, the Leading Economic Indicator managed

to recover in September. A rebound in construction elevated the index at the end of the quarter. The value of commercial construction increased $189 million and permits for new homes were up 13.8 percent. Initial unemployment claims were mixed during the reporting period, down 15.1 percent in August and up 8.3 percent in September. As layoffs start to subside and more jobs are created initial jobless claims should gradually start to trend downward.
The Coincident Economic Indicator (CEI), which measures current economic conditions, increased continuously throughout the third quarter. The index increased to 166.6 (up 0.7%) in July, 169.7 (1.8% increase) in August and

then moved to a level of 172.2 (up an additional 1.4%) in September.
Unemployment in the metro area (4.8% in September) closed in on Georgia's 4.6 percent jobless rate, while remaining well below the nations 6.1 percent unemployment rate.
Nonfarm employment (which is not included in the CEI) continued its 9 month climb, up 0.5 percent in August and 0.7 percent in September. Retail employment slipped 0.3 percent in August then regained ground the following month, ending the quarter up 1.0 percent. Industry-wide retail chain store sales advanced (up 5.9% in year-over-year sales) in September giving retailers a boost going into the holiday season.

10 Economic Indicators / Third Quarter 2003

Georgia Department of Labor

Metro Atlanta

Sep-2003

Aug-2003

Jul-2003

Percent Change Aug-2003
to Sep-2003

Percent Change Jul-2003
to Aug-2003

Nonagricultural Employment

2,237,194

Wholesale Employment

134,299

Retail Employment

252,347

Accommodation and Food Services Employment

174,078

Manufacturing Employment

161,332

Government Employment

291,358

Construction Employment

122,782

Trans., Warehousing and Utilities Employment

108,776

Financial Activities Employment

146,331

Professional and Business Services Employment

386,344

Hospital Services Employment

60,139

Social Assistance Employment

27,884

Manufacturing Workweek

36.3

Manufacturing Earnings

$529.16

Deflated Manufacturing Earnings

$288.06

Initial Unemployment Claims

13,135

Continued Unemployment Claims

188,490

Total Unemployment Rate ( not seasonally adjusted )

4.8

Insured Unemployment Rate

1.75%

MARTA Passengers

5,981,000

Cobb County Transit Passengers

216,617

Residential Construction (household units)

6,738

Nonresidential Construction (value)

$382,420,000

Deflated Nonresidential Construction

$297,600,000

Hotel Occupancy

#N/A

Average Hotel Room Rates

#N/A

Deflated Average Hotel Room Rate

#N/A

Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate

6.20%

Average 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate

5.47%

Average One-Year Adjustable Mortgage Rate

3.66%

2,221,314 132,110 249,717 172,538 161,966 289,275 120,903 108,487 145,263 383,908 58,981 26,229 34.8 $509.45 $277.63 12,127 151,334 4.9 1.74%
5,184,000 190,624 5,921
$193,034,000 $150,300,000
#N/A #N/A #N/A 6.32% 5.63% 3.69%

2,208,268 134,064 250,552 170,018 163,216 280,433 121,966 108,351 145,272 384,285 58,458 26,018 38.0 $578.69 $314.85 14,296 145,031 5.3 1.89%
5,003,000 199,742 5,787
$296,132,000 $229,900,000
#N/A #N/A #N/A 5.66% 5.02% 3.34%

0.71% 0.59%

1.66% -1.46%

1.05% -0.33%

0.89% 1.48%

-0.39% -0.77%

0.72% 3.15%

1.55% -0.87%

0.27% 0.13%

0.74% -0.01%

0.63% -0.10%

1.96% 0.89%

6.31% 0.81%

4.16% -8.26%

3.87% -11.96%

3.76% -11.82%

8.31% -15.18%

24.55% 4.35%

-

-

-

-

15.37% 3.62%

13.64% -4.57%

13.80% 2.31%

98.11% -34.81%

98.00% -34.62%

-

-

#N/A #N/A

#N/A #N/A

-

-

-

-

-

-

Georgia Department of Labor

Economic Indicators / Third Quarter 2003 11

MILLIONS

THOUSANDS

Metro Atlanta

2. 26 2. 24

2001-2002 2002-2003

2. 21

2. 19

2. 16
Nonagricultural Employment
2. 14
150

145

140

135

130
Wholesale Employment
125
270

260

250

THOUSANDS

THOUSANDS

300 2001-2002 2002-2003
250
200
150
100
Accommodation and Food Services
50
220
200
180
160
140
Manufacturing Employment
120 310
300
290

THOUSANDS

240

280

230
Retail Employment

220

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

270
Government Employment

260

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

Period
2001 :Q4 2002 :Q1
Q2 Q3 Q4 2003 :Q1 Q2 Jul Aug Sep

Nonag
2,170,232 2,179,602 2,187,850 2,170,072 2,165,678 2,179,868 2,195,027 2,208,268 2,221,314 2,237,194

Wholesale
140,392 142,714 143,538 140,903 140,245 140,839 135,164 134,064 132,110 134,299

Employment

Retail

Accom. & Food Services

249,327 247,873 249,841 248,473 247,770 250,854 248,660 250,552 249,717 252,347

170,810 167,837 172,037 167,944 166,992 167,285 173,256 170,018 172,538 174,078

Manufacturing
174,470 171,189 173,126 169,593 169,181 167,983 163,887 163,216 161,966 161,332

Government
278,909 278,665 282,007 286,104 288,326 290,146 287,337 280,433 289,275 291,358

THOUSANDS

12 Economic Indicators / Third Quarter 2003

Georgia Department of Labor

THOUSANDS

THOUSANDS

Metro Atlanta
132 2001-2002 2002-2003
126

420 2001-2002 2002-2003
400

120
114
108
Construction Employment
102 140

THOUSANDS

380
360
340
Professional and Business Services Employment
320 80

130

70

THOUSANDS

120

60

110

50

100

40

Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Employment

90

30

155

40

Hospital Services Employment

151

35

147

30

THOUSANDS

143

25

139
Financial Activities Employment

20
Social Assistance Employment

135

15

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

Period
2001 :Q4 2002 :Q1
Q2 Q3 Q4 2003 :Q1 Q2 Jul Aug Sep

Construction
119,221 121,539 118,075 116,408 116,369 118,618 120,629 121,966 120,903 122,782

Trans, Ware & Utilities
118,616 115,924 116,827 113,881 111,873 112,559 108,413 108,351 108,487 108,776

Employment

Financial Activities

Professional & Business Services

145,574 148,163 146,444 145,135 145,488 144,536 144,455 145,272 145,263 146,331

358,915 363,112 365,666 359,489 355,674 359,355 375,996 384,285 383,908 386,344

Hospital Services
54,823 56,012 55,545 55,074 56,032 57,246 57,804 58,458 58,981 60,139

Social Assistance
25,010 24,971 25,311 25,183 25,330 26,089 24,881 26,018 26,229 27,884

THOUSANDS

Georgia Department of Labor

Economic Indicators / Third Quarter 2003 13

HOURS

DOLLARS

Metro Atlanta

42.8 40.9

2001-2002 2002-2003

39.1

26. 9 21. 9 16. 9

2001-2002 2002-2003

THOUSANDS

37.2 35.4 33.5 $ 655 $ 620 $ 585 $ 550 $ 515 $ 480 475 420

Manufacturing Workweek Manufacturing Earnings

THOUSANDS

11. 9
6. 9
Initial Unemployment Claims
1. 9
275
225
175
125
75
Continued Unemployment Claims
25 7. 0
6. 2

PERCENTAGES

365

5. 4

310

4. 6

255
Deflated Manufacturing Earnings

200

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

3. 8
Unemployment Rate

3. 0

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

DOLLARS

Period
2001 :Q4 2002 :Q1
Q2 Q3 Q4 2003 :Q1 Q2 Jul Aug Sep

Work Week (hrs)
39.8 40.1 40.0 39.0 39.5 39.3 38.7 38.0 34.8 36.3

Manufacturing
Weekly Earnings
$585.21 617.37 607.08 592.97 603.96 595.25 588.50 578.69 509.45 529.16

Deflated Earnings
$329.19 348.30 341.24 329.73 334.42 328.57 321.59 314.85 277.63 288.06

14 Economic Indicators / Third Quarter 2003

Initial Claims
16,544 13,434 14,878 13,060 13,623 13,272 15,564 14,296 12,127 13,135

Unemployment
Continued Claims
183,017 171,515 186,676 173,034 163,621 158,677 178,406 145,031 151,334 188,490

Rate
4.4% 5.2% 5.9% 5.6% 5.2% 4.7% 5.5% 5.3% 4.9% 4.8%

Georgia Department of Labor

PERCENTAGES

MILLIONS

Metro Atlanta
2.9 2001-2002 2002-2003
2.5
2.1
1.7
1.3
Insured Unemployment Rate
0.9 6. 8
6. 3
5. 8
5. 3
4. 8
MARTA Passengers
4. 3
245

MILLIONS

HOUSEHOLD UNITS ( THOUSANDS )

7. 5 6. 6 5. 8 4. 9 4. 1 3. 2 $ 600 $ 480 $ 360 $ 240 $ 120 $0 $ 431

2001-2002 2002-2003
Residential Construction
Nonresidential Construction

221

$ 346

197

$ 261

MILLIONS

173

$ 176

149
Cobb Community Transit Passengers

$ 91
Deflated Nonresidential Construction

125

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

$6

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

THOUSANDS

Period
2001 :Q4 2002 :Q1
Q2 Q3 Q4 2003 :Q1 Q2 Jul Aug Sep

Insured Unemployment
Rate 2
1.95% 2.06% 1.96% 1.83% 1.84% 1.81% 1.93% 1.89% 1.74% 1.75%

Transit Passengers

MARTA 1
5,904,600 5,618,800 5,637,400 5,361,200 5,456,900 5,476,300 5,570,400 5,002,800 5,184,000 5,981,200

Cobb Community
187,516 175,120 167,733 178,376 193,958 191,127 190,276 199,742 190,624 216,617

Construction

Residential 3
5,122 5,181 5,721 5,180 5,442 4,831 4,623 5,787 5,921 6,738

Nonresidential
$317,069,000 296,865,000 283,007,000 290,063,000 285,491,000 236,366,000 250,483,000 296,132,000 193,034,000 382,420,000

Deflated Non-res
$257,966,667 238,733,333 228,600,000 234,166,667 230,166,667 187,600,000 195,200,000 229,900,000 150,300,000 297,600,000

1 Data rounded 2 Rate at the end of each quarter, except for monthly rates.
Georgia Department of Labor

3 Household units Economic Indicators / Thrid Quarter 2003 15

PERCENTAGES

DOLLARS

Metro Atlanta
75 2001-2002 2002-2003
69
63
56
50
Hotel Occupancy
44
$87
$82
$78
$74
$69
Average Hotel Room Rates
$65
$ 49

PERCENTAGES

PERCENTAGES

7. 50 6. 90

2001-2002 2002-2003

6. 30

5. 70

5. 10
Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
4. 50

7.10

6.48

5.86

5.24

4.62
Average 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
4.00
7.61

$ 47

6.43

PERCENTAGES

$ 44

5.25

$ 41

4.07

$ 38

Deflated Average Hotel Room Rates

$ 35

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

2.89
Average One-Year Adjustable Mortgage Rates

1.71

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

DOLLARS

Period
2001 :Q4 2002 :Q1
Q2 Q3 Q4 2003 :Q1 Q2 Jul Aug Sep

Occupancy %
58.4% 60.2% 57.8% 57.7% 58.2% 56.8% 55.3% #N/A #N/A #N/A

Hotel Data
Room Rates
$76.60 77.65 77.55 75.75 77.10 74.18 72.16 #N/A #N/A #N/A

1 Rate does not include points 16 Economic Indicators / Third Quarter 2003

Deflated Room Rates
$43.09 43.81 43.59 42.12 42.69 40.95 39.43 #N/A #N/A #N/A

3 0 - Ye a r Fixed 1
7.17% 7.00% 6.60% 6.16% 6.00% 5.74% 5.22% 5.66% 6.32% 6.20%

Mortgage Rates

1 5 - Ye a r Fixed 1

O n e - Ye a r Rate Adjustable 1

6.65% 6.55% 6.11% 5.58% 5.40% 5.10% 4.61% 5.02% 5.63% 5.47%

5.26% 4.98% 4.29% 4.20% 3.63% 3.43% 3.18% 3.34% 3.69% 3.66%

Georgia Department of Labor

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