Economic Indicators A Quarterly Report of Georgia and Metro Atlanta Labor Market and Economic Trends Third Quarter 2003 Volume 9, Issue 3 Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner Georgia-Atlanta Economic Indicators Quarterly Report Third Quarter - 2003 Volume 9, Issue 3 Cover art: The Fox Theatre, Atlanta, Georgia by Huey J. Theus, Mableton, Georgia The Georgia-Atlanta Economic Indicators, Quarterly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 232-3875. Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner Equal Opportunity Employer/Programs - Auxiliary Aids and Services Available Upon Request to Individuals With Disabilities Georgia Department of Labor Economic Indicators / Third Quarter 2003 Contents History ............................................................................................................................................................ 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................. 2 U.S. Consumer Price Index ......................................................................................................................... 3 Georgia Index of Economic Indicators ...................................................................................................... 4 Georgia Data Summary ................................................................................................................................ 5 Employment, Manufacturing Wages and Hours .................................................................................... 6 Nonagricultural, Retail, Manufacturing,Workweek, Earnings and Deflated Earnings Job Openings, Unemployment Data and Vehicle Sales ........................................................................ 7 Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Initial/ Continued Unemployment Claims, Unemployment Rate, Insured Unemployment Rate and New Motor Vehicle Sales Construction, New Business and State Revenue ................................................................................... 8 Residential/ Nonresidential Construction, Deflated Nonresidential Construction, New Business Corporations, Total/ Deflated State Revenue Consumer Price Index for the South ......................................................................................................... 9 Metro Atlanta Index of Economic Indicators ........................................................................................... 10 Atlanta Data Summary ................................................................................................................................ 11 Employment Data ......................................................................................................................................... 12 Nonagricultural, Wholesale, Retail, Accommodation and Food Services, Manufacturing and Government Emloyment Data - Continued ..................................................................................................................... 13 Construction, Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities, Financial Activities, Professional and Business Services, Hospital Services and Social Assistance Manufacturing Workweek, Earnings and Unemployment Data .......................................................... 14 Manufacturing -Workweek, Earnings and Deflated Earnings, Initial/ Continued Unemployment Claims and Unemployment Rates Unemployment Data, Transit and Construction Data ............................................................................ 15 Insured Unemployment Rate, Marta Passengers, Cobb Community Transit Passengers, Residential/ Nonresidential Construction and Deflated Nonresidential Construction Hotel and Mortgage Rates ......................................................................................................................... 16 Hotel Occupancy, Average Hotel Room Rates, Deflated Average Hotel Room Rates, Average 30-Year/ 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates and Average One-Year Adjustable Mortgage Rates History The Fox Theatre is a premier example of the American movie palace. "The Fabulous Fox" is one of the most ornate movie palaces remaining in the country, and one of the largest (250,000 square feet) movie theaters ever built. It opened on Christmas Day, 1929, near the end of the golden age of the American movie palace. The Fox was not originally intended to be a movie theater. The building was originally planned and designed to be the new headquarters for the Shriners of Atlanta. In 1927, the Yaarab Temple held a design competition for their new headquarters building. A local architectural firm submitted the winning design, a flamboyant interpretation of a mosque with onion domes, towers, horsehoe and lancet arches, and a minaret. TheYaarab Temple Shriners loved the design, but they soon found out that the cost to build their new headquarters was more than their budget. The Yaarab Temple subsequently signed a lease to share the building with movie mogul William Fox, the president of the Fox Theater Corporation and the Fox Film Corporation. The cornerstone was laid on June 14, 1928, and The Fox Theatre opened 18 months later on December 25, 1929. The Yaarab Temple dedicated their new mosque a week later on New Year's Day. The exterior of the building and most of the interior are based on historic Islamic architecture. Several interior spaces are based on historic Egyptian architecture, including the Egyptian Ballroom, the Yaarab Temple's former banquet hall and ballroom. The Fox includes features and details borrowed from historic mosques constructed from the 10th to the 16th centuries all the way from southern Spain to north Africa, the Mideast, and northern India. Because of the Great Depression, the Fox Theatre closed only 125 weeks after it opened. Members of the Yaarab Temple could not meet their pledges, and by 1932, William Fox was bankrupt. In December 1932, the mortgage was foreclosed and the theater did not get back on a sound financial footing until later in the 1930s. A new partnership called Mosque Inc. acquired The Fabulous Fox and it prospered as one of Atlanta's finest movie houses from the 1940s through the 1960s. The Fox was a successful theater for longer than most American movie palaces which had to compete with suburban development, drive-in movies, and television in the 1950s. And the Fox survived longer than most, in large part because Atlanta loved the Fox. By 1974, however, The Fox was an endangered property. A large corporation wanted the theater site on Peachtree Street for its new high-rise headquarters and tried to have the building razed before the property changed hands. Uncharacteristically for Atlanta, a grass-roots campaign to "Save the Fox" quickly emerged, championed by a group of local high school students who picketed in front of the theater and attracted media attention at a critical time. Aided by the mayor, the city's new Urban Design Commission, and a new non-profit organization, Atlanta Landmarks, Inc., the campaign was a success. Atlanta Landmarks purchased the Fox in the summer of 1975 and paid the mortgage in 1978, shortly before the repayment deadline. Since that time, the Fox has been financially successful as a multi-purpose performing arts center, and Atlanta Landmarks has spent more than $20 million restoring, rehabilitating, and maintaining the huge building. The Fox Theatre was designated a National Historic Landmark in 1976. Introduction G eorgia Economic Indicators, Quarterly Report, is designed to provide in a single publication data on a number of indicators used to measure movement of the state's economy. Our publication has changed. The Georgia and Metropolitan Altanta Economic Indicator series, previously published as two separate monthly publications, are now published as a single quarterly publication. Graphs will continue to display data in monthly increments; whereas, companion data tables will display the 3-month average for each series (for 7 quarters) before alternating to a monthly format for the most recent quarter. All data except those contained in the U.S. and the Consumer Price Index for the South chart on Pages 3 and 9 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data that have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars. Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually. Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning Georgia Economic Indicators, Quarterly Report and Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Bill Webb, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 232-3875. Data Sources Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Manufacturing Workweek and Employment data. -- Georgia Department of Labor Consumer Price Index -- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, adapted from commentary by Michael Wald New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group MARTA Passengers -- Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit System CCT Passengers -- Cobb Community Transit System Hotel Occupancy and Room Rates -- Smith Travel Research, Hendersonville, TN Mortgage Rates -- HSH Associates, Financial Publishers, Butler, NJ Retail Trends -- Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, Ltd. * Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center 2 Economic Indicators / Third Quarter 2003 Georgia Department of Labor Consumer Price Index Chart is not seasonally adjusted YEAR 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 JAN 127.4 134.6 138.1 142.6 146.2 150.3 154.4 159.1 161.6 164.3 168.7 175.1 177.1 181.7 FEB 128.0 134.8 138.6 143.1 146.7 150.9 154.9 159.6 161.9 164.5 169.7 175.8 177.8 183.1 MAR 128.7 135.0 139.3 143.6 147.2 151.4 155.7 160.0 162.2 165.0 171.1 176.2 178.8 184.2 APR 128.9 135.2 139.5 144.0 147.4 151.9 156.3 160.2 162.5 166.2 171.2 176.9 179.8 183.8 MAY 129.2 135.6 139.7 144.2 147.5 152.2 156.6 160.1 162.8 166.2 171.3 177.7 179.8 183.5 JUN 129.9 136.0 140.2 144.4 148.0 152.5 156.7 160.3 163.0 166.2 172.3 178.0 179.9 183.7 JUL 130.4 136.2 140.5 144.4 148.4 152.5 157.0 160.5 163.2 166.7 172.6 177.5 180.1 183.9 AUG 131.6 136.6 140.9 144.8 149.0 152.9 157.3 160.8 163.4 167.1 172.8 177.5 180.7 184.6 SEP 132.7 137.2 141.3 145.1 149.4 153.2 157.8 161.2 163.6 167.9 173.7 178.3 181.0 185.2 OCT 133.5 137.4 141.9 145.7 149.5 153.7 158.3 161.6 164.0 168.2 174.0 177.7 181.3 NOV 133.8 137.8 142.0 145.8 149.7 153.6 158.6 161.5 164.0 168.3 174.1 177.4 181.3 DEC 133.8 137.9 141.9 145.8 149.7 153.5 158.6 161.3 163.9 168.3 174.0 176.7 180.9 AVG 130.7 136.2 140.3 144.5 148.2 152.4 156.9 160.5 163.0 166.6 172.1 177.1 179.9 CPI RATE 6.1% 3.1% 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 3.3% 1.7% 1.6% 2.7% 3.4% 1.6% 2.4% Source: U.S. Bureau Of Labor Statistics @www.bls.gov CPI Increases 0.3 Percent in September The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in September, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. The September level of 185.2 (198284=100) was 2.3 percent higher than its level in September 2002. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U rose 0.3 percent in September, the same as in August. Energy costs advanced sharply for the second consecutive month--up 3.0 percent in September, reflecting a 6.3 percent increase in the index for gasoline. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent in September, the same as in August. A smaller increase in the index for shelter was offset by larger increases in the index for medical care and apparel. Consumer prices increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 3.1 percent in the third quarter of 2003, following an increase at a 5.2 percent rate in the first quarter and a decline at a 0.7 percent rate in the second quarter. This brings the year-to-date annual rate to 2.5 percent and compares with an increase of 2.4 percent in all of 2002. The CPI-U excluding food and energy advanced at a 1.5 percent SAAR in the third quarter, following an increase at a 0.8 and 1.0 percent in the first two quarters of 2003. The advance at a 1.1 percent SAAR for the first nine months of the 2003 compares with a 1.9 percent rise in all of 2002. Smaller increases in the indexes for shelter and medical care were largely responsible for the deceleration. The index for housing increased 0.1 percent in September, the same as in August. Shelter costs rose 0.1 percent in September, following an increase of 0.2 percent in August. The index for fuels and utilities increased 0.2 percent in September. A 0.6 percent increase in the index for electricity more than offset declines in the indexes for fuel oil and natural gas, down 1.9 and 0.4 percent, respectively. For the 12 months ended in September, charges for natural gas have risen 24.8 percent, fuel oil prices, 12.1 percent, and charges for electricity, 3.8 percent. The index for household furnishings and operations declined for the seventh consecutive month, down 0.4 percent in September. The transportation index increased 0.9 percent in September. The index for gasoline advanced for the fourth consecutive month up 6.3 percent in September. As of September the price of gasoline was 0.6 percent below its peak level of March 2003. The index for new vehicles, which turned up in August, declined 0.4 percent in September. The index for public transportation declined 0.5 percent in September, reflecting declines in airline and other intercity transportation fares. The index for apparel, which rose 0.1 percent in August, increased 0.5 percent in September. Medical care costs rose 0.5 percent in September and are 4.0 percent higher than a year ago. Georgia Department of Labor Economic Indicators / Third Quarter 2003 3 Georgia Index of Economic Indicators 208 Leading indicators Coincident indicators 181 154 128 101 1990 = 100 74 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Georgia's Economic Indicators Fall In-Line With Expectations Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted. *** The Georgia Department of Labor's Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) continued its advance into the third quarter, completing 6 months of consecutive gains. Two quarters of back-to-back gains seems more like a recovery trend than another false start. The Leading Economic Indicator pressed forward in July to 178.3 (up 0.4%), then backed off in August (advancing 0.1%) moving the index up slightly to the level of 178.6. In September the index closed out the quarter with a 1.1 percent gain, moving up to 180.7. In August slower sales of new motor vehicles (down 3.7%) along with a decline in commercial construction (contracted 2.0%) kept gains to a minimum. However, in September a reversal in construction (up 29.8%) and a smaller decline in sales of new vehicles (down 0.8%) helped push the indicator forward. Initial jobless claims declined 6.4 percent in August then increased 9.6 percent the following month. New business filings and residential construction permits were up in August and September. The Coincident Economic Indicator (CEI) started the quarter off slow, barely moving up to 170.6, in July. Then in August the index accelerated to 173.4 (up 1.6%). The CEI ended the quarter at a level of 175.4 (up 1.1% in September). Tax refund checks and back to school spending certainly helped the retail sector in the third quarter. Retail employment increased 0.2 percent in August and 0.9 percent in September. Unemployment declined onetenth of a percent to 4.6 percent as the insured unemployment rate remained unchanged. State revenues increased 6.8 and 19.6 percent in August and September, respectively. Local economists forecasted a turn-around the second half of the year and the Economic Indicators' performance in the third quarter seems to be in line with expectations. 4 Economic Indicators / Third Quarter 2003 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Nonagricultural Employment change from previous month Retail Employment change from previous month Manufacturing Employment change from previous month Manufacturing Workweek (hours) change from previous month Weekly Manufacturing Earnings change from previous month Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled change from previous month Initial Unemployment Claims change from previous month Continued Unemployment Claims change from previous month Unemployment rate (not seasonally adjusted) change from previous month Insured Unemployment Rate change from previous month New Motor Vehicle Sales change from previous month Residential Construction ( building permits ) change from previous month Nonresidential Construction ( dollar value ) change from previous month New Business Corporations change from previous month Total State Revenues ( in millions ) change from previous month Deflated State Revenues ( in millions ) change from previous month * Current data not available, estimate used. Georgia Department of Labor September 2003 3,970,034 0.28% 464,156 0.90% 448,757 -0.19% 39.0 0.22% $538.08 0.34% 13,581 -4.07% 54,777 9.60% 365,859 23.44% 4.6% - - 1.91% - - 44,786* -0.82% 9,903 20.46% $573,013,264 29.88% 5,955 7.48% $1,194,596,602 19.67% 645,032,400 19.28% August 2003 3,958,817 0.51% 460,018 0.26% 449,610 -0.54% 38.9 -2.71% $536.26 -5.04% 14,158 -3.50% 49,980 -6.42% 296,389 4.99% 4.7% - - 1.91% - - 45,154 -3.70% 8,221 0.81% $441,177,613 -2.03% 5,541 10.91% $998,264,163 6.88% 540,769,200 6.47% July 2003 3,938,551 - - 458,845 - - 452,062 - - 40.0 - - $564.71 - - 14,672 - - 53,408 - - 282,314 - - 5.3% - - 1.98% - - 46,889 - - 8,154 - - $450,319,149 - - 4,996 - - $934,025,328 - - 507,901,000 - - Economic Indicators / Third Quarter 2003 5 MILLIONS THOUSANDS GEORGIA 4.02 2001-2002 2002-2003 3.98 44. 2 42. 7 2001-2002 2002-2003 3.93 41. 3 HOURS 3.89 39. 8 3.84 Nonagricultural Employment 3.80 500 38. 4 Manufacturing Workweek 36. 9 $ 610 480 $ 580 460 $ 550 DOLLARS 440 $ 520 420 Retail Employment 400 550 $ 490 Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $ 460 $ 340 520 $ 325 490 $ 310 DOLLARS 460 $ 295 430 $ 280 Manufacturing Employment Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings 400 $ 265 O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S Employment 2001: Q4 2002: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2003: Q1 Q2 Jul Aug Sep Nonag 3,904,177 3,917,900 3,907,837 3,900,149 3,897,861 3,909,766 3,921,513 3,938,551 3,958,817 3,970,034 Retail 453,450 453,237 456,186 453,215 454,103 461,004 459,416 458,845 460,018 464,156 Mfg. 478,563 471,521 472,759 473,759 469,658 461,490 447,275 452,062 449,610 448,757 All graphs contain monthly data and are seasonally adjusted, except where noted. Manufacturing Avg. Work Week 40.3 41.1 Weekly Earnings $516.67 549.23 41.1 545.70 40.7 534.06 40.7 560.83 40.6 564.46 40.5 573.35 40.0 564.71 38.9 536.26 39.0 538.08 Deflated Wkly Earnings $291.47 308.73 303.45 295.71 309.57 308.44 312.17 307.07 290.50 290.54 THOUSANDS 6 Economic Indicators / Third Quarter 2003 Georgia Department of Labor THOUSANDS THOUSANDS GEORGIA 19.7 2001-2002 2002-2003 16.2 12.7 6.3 2001-2002 2002-2003 5.7 5.2 PERCENTAGES 9.2 4.6 5.7 4.1 Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled 2.2 3.5 99. 6 3. 26 80. 9 2. 76 62. 1 2. 26 Unemployment Rate PERCENTAGES 43. 4 24. 6 Initial Unemployment Claims 5. 9 550 1. 76 1. 26 Insured Unemployment Rate 0. 76 63 450 56 THOUSANDS 350 50 250 43 150 37 Continued Unemployment Claims New Motor Vehicle Sales 50 30 O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S THOUSANDS 2001: Q4 2002: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2003: Q1 Q2 Jul Aug Sep Job Openings 7,624 9,214 9,697 10,246 10,690 11,486 11,649 14,672 14,158 13,581 Initial Claims 61,024 46,376 49,953 44,835 50,556 49,032 58,777 53,408 49,980 54,777 1 Rate at the end of each quarter, except for monthly rates. * Current data not available, estimate used. Georgia Department of Labor Unemployment Continued Claims 348,012 Rate 1 4.5% 309,885 5.1% 342,513 5.7% 321,650 5.4% 303,933 5.1% 299,701 4.7% 330,848 5.4% 282,314 5.3% 296,389 4.7% 365,859 4.6% Insured 1 2.09% 2.06% 1.94% 1.96% 2.19% 1.99% 2.03% 1.98% 1.91% 1.91% New Motor Vehicle Sales 47,801 46,658 43,752 47,308 42,452 45,229 40,931 46,889 45,154 44,786* Economic Indicators / Third Quarter 2003 7 HOUSEHOLD UNITS MILLIONS GEORGIA 10, 900 9, 800 2001-2002 2002-2003 8, 700 7, 600 6, 500 Residential Construction 5, 400 $ 810 $ 672 $ 534 $ 396 $ 258 Nonresidential Construction $ 120 $ 675 MILLIONS CHARTERS 7,123 6,068 5,014 3,959 2,905 1,850 $ 1,683 $ 1,466 $ 1,250 $ 1,033 $ 817 $ 600 $ 940 2001-2002 2002-2003 New Business Corporations Total State Revenue $ 550 $ 823 $ 425 $ 706 MILLIONS $ 300 $ 589 $ 175 Deflated Nonresidential Construction $ 472 Deflated Total State Revenue $ 50 O N D J F M A M J J A $ 355 S O N D J F M A M J J A S MILLIONS Construction Residential 2 Non-residential 1 Deflated non-res 1 2001: Q4 7,428 2002: Q1 7,794 Q2 8,400 Q3 7,861 Q4 7,970 2003: Q1 7,350 Q2 6,927 Jul 8,154 Aug 8,221 Sep 9,903 1 Data rounded 2 Household units 3 Includes limited liability companies $499,825,000 441,608,000 448,637,000 436,092,000 492,563,000 408,989,000 398,846,000 450,319,000 441,178,000 573,013,000 $402,111,800 356,710,800 362,193,500 351,592,600 391,337,100 318,858,400 309,743,200 349,626,600 340,678,000 440,440,400 8 Economic Indicators / Third Quarter 2003 New Business Corporations 3 3,645 5,236 4,785 5,180 5,186 4,950 5,757 4,996 5,541 5,955 Total State Revenue 1 Deflated Rev. 1 $1,089,340,000 1,040,070,000 1,131,250,000 1,004,900,000 1,073,530,000 1,037,440,000 1,104,810,000 934,030,000 998,260,000 1,194,600,000 $614,520,500 584,637,400 629,054,700 556,423,000 592,564,900 566,907,100 601,529,900 507,901,000 540,769,200 645,032,400 Georgia Department of Labor Consumer Price Index for the South 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 78.5 80.6 82.2 87.8 89.0 90.4 95.1 94.7 97.0 98.0 98.8 99.6 102.4 103.1 103.6 105.7 106.4 107.1 108.9 107.9 108.7 1987 110.2 110.7 111.1 111.5 111.8 112.2 112.6 1988 114.1 114.4 114.8 115.4 115.6 116.1 116.6 1989 118.9 119.2 119.8 120.8 121.3 121.7 122.0 1990 124.6 125.4 126.0 126.1 126.5 127.3 127.8 1991 131.4 131.7 131.9 132.1 132.5 132.8 133.0 1992 134.4 134.9 135.5 135.9 136.2 136.7 136.8 1993 138.4 139.1 139.7 140.2 140.7 140.8 140.9 1994 142.5 142.9 143.6 143.8 144.3 144.7 145.0 1995 146.7 147.4 148.0 148.4 148.8 149.1 149.2 1996 151.1 151.5 152.4 153.2 153.5 154.0 154.0 1997 155.7 156.1 156.5 156.7 156.6 157.0 157.0 1998 157.6 157.8 158.2 158.5 158.8 159.1 159.3 1999 159.9 160.0 160.6 161.5 161.6 161.7 162.2 2000 164.0 164.7 166.4 166.6 166.6 167.4 167.9 2001 169.3 170.2 170.6 171.4 171.7 172.2 171.6 2002 170.6 171.0 172.1 173.1 173.2 173.5 173.6 2003 175.1 176.4 177.5 177.4 176.8 177.2 177.3 Aug 82.7 91.9 97.6 100.2 104.3 107.6 108.7 112.9 117.0 122.1 128.7 133.3 137.0 141.5 145.5 149.7 154.1 157.1 159.5 162.6 168.0 171.5 173.8 177.9 Sep 113.5 117.7 122.5 129.7 133.8 137.3 141.6 145.8 149.8 154.5 157.5 159.5 163.2 168.5 172.2 174.2 178.3 Oct 84.2 93.0 98.0 101.2 105.1 108.3 109.4 113.8 118.2 123.0 130.7 134.1 137.8 142.2 145.9 150.5 154.9 157.8 159.8 163.6 168.5 171.7 174.9 Nov 114.1 118.3 123.2 130.9 134.4 138.1 142.3 146.0 150.4 155.1 157.8 159.6 163.5 168.6 171.0 174.9 Dec 85.8 94.3 97.8 101.3 105.3 108.7 109.7 114.0 118.5 123.4 130.9 134.3 137.9 142.2 146.1 150.3 155.1 157.3 159.6 163.6 168.4 170.3 174.6 Rate 12.5 9.9 3.7 3.6 3.9 3.2 0.9 3.9 3.9 4.1 6.1 2.6 2.7 3.1 2.7 2.9 3.2 1.4 1.5 2.5 2.9 1.1 2.5 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics @ www.bls.gov The CPI for the South The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) for the South increased 0.2 percent in September, not seasonally adjusted, to a level of 178.3 (1982-84=100), as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. For the 12-months ending in September, the CPI-U, South increased 2.4 percent. Over the month, higher costs for apparel and transportation accounted for almost all of the increase in the all items index. Energy costs advanced 1.7 percent, while the index for food rose 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U, South increased 0.1 percent over the month. Over the past 12 months, the CPIU, South has increased 2.4 percent. During that time period, energy costs climbed 13.6 percent, while Georgia Department of Labor Following is the formula for figuring Consumer Price Index changes from one point in time to another. Index point change CPI 112.5 Less previous index 108.5 Equals index point change 4.0 Percentage change Index point difference 4.0 Divide by the previous index 108.5 Equals 0.037 Results multiplied by 100 0.037x100 Equals percent change 3.7% food costs rose 2.7 percent. Excluding the cost of food and energy, the CPI-U, South has increased 1.3 percent since September 2002. The index for housing dropped 0.1 percent over the month due to lower costs for shelter (-0.2 percent). The index for fuel and utilities rose 0.4 percent in September. Electricity costs advanced 0.6 percent while costs for utility natural gas service fell 0.1 percent. Apparel costs increased 4.1 percent over the month, after five consecutive months of decrease. The transportation index increased 0.3 percent in September due to higher gasoline costs for the third consecutive month. Gasoline costs increased 3.2 percent in September after advancing 1.9 percent in July and 5.7 percent in August. Over the last 12 months, the transportation index has risen 3.2 percent, reflecting higher gasoline costs. Medical care costs rose 0.3 percent in September after increasing 0.2 percent in August. Costs for medical care services increased 0.2 percent. Economic Indicators / Third Quarter 2003 9 Metro Atlanta Index of Economic Indicators 184.9 Leading indicators Coincident indicators 165.6 146.3 127.1 107.8 1995-96 = 100 88.5 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 Recovery Gains Momentum in Q3 Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted. *** With the wind in our sails economic activity in the metro area is showing signs of prosperity. As we enter into the final quarter of the year with some momentum, a more robust economy could be awaiting in 2004. The Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for metropolitan Atlanta moved ahead to 175.1 in July (up 1.0%) then headed south to 172.6 in August (down 1.4 %). Nevertheless, the index recovered gracefully in September moving up to 176.9 (2.4% increase) marking the largest one month gain in over two years. The LEI index took some hits in August when the manufacturing workweek dropped to 34.8 hours and the value of commercial construction declined 34.8 percent. However, the Leading Economic Indicator managed to recover in September. A rebound in construction elevated the index at the end of the quarter. The value of commercial construction increased $189 million and permits for new homes were up 13.8 percent. Initial unemployment claims were mixed during the reporting period, down 15.1 percent in August and up 8.3 percent in September. As layoffs start to subside and more jobs are created initial jobless claims should gradually start to trend downward. The Coincident Economic Indicator (CEI), which measures current economic conditions, increased continuously throughout the third quarter. The index increased to 166.6 (up 0.7%) in July, 169.7 (1.8% increase) in August and then moved to a level of 172.2 (up an additional 1.4%) in September. Unemployment in the metro area (4.8% in September) closed in on Georgia's 4.6 percent jobless rate, while remaining well below the nations 6.1 percent unemployment rate. Nonfarm employment (which is not included in the CEI) continued its 9 month climb, up 0.5 percent in August and 0.7 percent in September. Retail employment slipped 0.3 percent in August then regained ground the following month, ending the quarter up 1.0 percent. Industry-wide retail chain store sales advanced (up 5.9% in year-over-year sales) in September giving retailers a boost going into the holiday season. 10 Economic Indicators / Third Quarter 2003 Georgia Department of Labor Metro Atlanta Sep-2003 Aug-2003 Jul-2003 Percent Change Aug-2003 to Sep-2003 Percent Change Jul-2003 to Aug-2003 Nonagricultural Employment 2,237,194 Wholesale Employment 134,299 Retail Employment 252,347 Accommodation and Food Services Employment 174,078 Manufacturing Employment 161,332 Government Employment 291,358 Construction Employment 122,782 Trans., Warehousing and Utilities Employment 108,776 Financial Activities Employment 146,331 Professional and Business Services Employment 386,344 Hospital Services Employment 60,139 Social Assistance Employment 27,884 Manufacturing Workweek 36.3 Manufacturing Earnings $529.16 Deflated Manufacturing Earnings $288.06 Initial Unemployment Claims 13,135 Continued Unemployment Claims 188,490 Total Unemployment Rate ( not seasonally adjusted ) 4.8 Insured Unemployment Rate 1.75% MARTA Passengers 5,981,000 Cobb County Transit Passengers 216,617 Residential Construction (household units) 6,738 Nonresidential Construction (value) $382,420,000 Deflated Nonresidential Construction $297,600,000 Hotel Occupancy #N/A Average Hotel Room Rates #N/A Deflated Average Hotel Room Rate #N/A Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate 6.20% Average 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate 5.47% Average One-Year Adjustable Mortgage Rate 3.66% 2,221,314 132,110 249,717 172,538 161,966 289,275 120,903 108,487 145,263 383,908 58,981 26,229 34.8 $509.45 $277.63 12,127 151,334 4.9 1.74% 5,184,000 190,624 5,921 $193,034,000 $150,300,000 #N/A #N/A #N/A 6.32% 5.63% 3.69% 2,208,268 134,064 250,552 170,018 163,216 280,433 121,966 108,351 145,272 384,285 58,458 26,018 38.0 $578.69 $314.85 14,296 145,031 5.3 1.89% 5,003,000 199,742 5,787 $296,132,000 $229,900,000 #N/A #N/A #N/A 5.66% 5.02% 3.34% 0.71% 0.59% 1.66% -1.46% 1.05% -0.33% 0.89% 1.48% -0.39% -0.77% 0.72% 3.15% 1.55% -0.87% 0.27% 0.13% 0.74% -0.01% 0.63% -0.10% 1.96% 0.89% 6.31% 0.81% 4.16% -8.26% 3.87% -11.96% 3.76% -11.82% 8.31% -15.18% 24.55% 4.35% - - - - 15.37% 3.62% 13.64% -4.57% 13.80% 2.31% 98.11% -34.81% 98.00% -34.62% - - #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A - - - - - - Georgia Department of Labor Economic Indicators / Third Quarter 2003 11 MILLIONS THOUSANDS Metro Atlanta 2. 26 2. 24 2001-2002 2002-2003 2. 21 2. 19 2. 16 Nonagricultural Employment 2. 14 150 145 140 135 130 Wholesale Employment 125 270 260 250 THOUSANDS THOUSANDS 300 2001-2002 2002-2003 250 200 150 100 Accommodation and Food Services 50 220 200 180 160 140 Manufacturing Employment 120 310 300 290 THOUSANDS 240 280 230 Retail Employment 220 O N D J F M A M J J A S 270 Government Employment 260 O N D J F M A M J J A S Period 2001 :Q4 2002 :Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2003 :Q1 Q2 Jul Aug Sep Nonag 2,170,232 2,179,602 2,187,850 2,170,072 2,165,678 2,179,868 2,195,027 2,208,268 2,221,314 2,237,194 Wholesale 140,392 142,714 143,538 140,903 140,245 140,839 135,164 134,064 132,110 134,299 Employment Retail Accom. & Food Services 249,327 247,873 249,841 248,473 247,770 250,854 248,660 250,552 249,717 252,347 170,810 167,837 172,037 167,944 166,992 167,285 173,256 170,018 172,538 174,078 Manufacturing 174,470 171,189 173,126 169,593 169,181 167,983 163,887 163,216 161,966 161,332 Government 278,909 278,665 282,007 286,104 288,326 290,146 287,337 280,433 289,275 291,358 THOUSANDS 12 Economic Indicators / Third Quarter 2003 Georgia Department of Labor THOUSANDS THOUSANDS Metro Atlanta 132 2001-2002 2002-2003 126 420 2001-2002 2002-2003 400 120 114 108 Construction Employment 102 140 THOUSANDS 380 360 340 Professional and Business Services Employment 320 80 130 70 THOUSANDS 120 60 110 50 100 40 Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Employment 90 30 155 40 Hospital Services Employment 151 35 147 30 THOUSANDS 143 25 139 Financial Activities Employment 20 Social Assistance Employment 135 15 O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S Period 2001 :Q4 2002 :Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2003 :Q1 Q2 Jul Aug Sep Construction 119,221 121,539 118,075 116,408 116,369 118,618 120,629 121,966 120,903 122,782 Trans, Ware & Utilities 118,616 115,924 116,827 113,881 111,873 112,559 108,413 108,351 108,487 108,776 Employment Financial Activities Professional & Business Services 145,574 148,163 146,444 145,135 145,488 144,536 144,455 145,272 145,263 146,331 358,915 363,112 365,666 359,489 355,674 359,355 375,996 384,285 383,908 386,344 Hospital Services 54,823 56,012 55,545 55,074 56,032 57,246 57,804 58,458 58,981 60,139 Social Assistance 25,010 24,971 25,311 25,183 25,330 26,089 24,881 26,018 26,229 27,884 THOUSANDS Georgia Department of Labor Economic Indicators / Third Quarter 2003 13 HOURS DOLLARS Metro Atlanta 42.8 40.9 2001-2002 2002-2003 39.1 26. 9 21. 9 16. 9 2001-2002 2002-2003 THOUSANDS 37.2 35.4 33.5 $ 655 $ 620 $ 585 $ 550 $ 515 $ 480 475 420 Manufacturing Workweek Manufacturing Earnings THOUSANDS 11. 9 6. 9 Initial Unemployment Claims 1. 9 275 225 175 125 75 Continued Unemployment Claims 25 7. 0 6. 2 PERCENTAGES 365 5. 4 310 4. 6 255 Deflated Manufacturing Earnings 200 O N D J F M A M J J A S 3. 8 Unemployment Rate 3. 0 O N D J F M A M J J A S DOLLARS Period 2001 :Q4 2002 :Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2003 :Q1 Q2 Jul Aug Sep Work Week (hrs) 39.8 40.1 40.0 39.0 39.5 39.3 38.7 38.0 34.8 36.3 Manufacturing Weekly Earnings $585.21 617.37 607.08 592.97 603.96 595.25 588.50 578.69 509.45 529.16 Deflated Earnings $329.19 348.30 341.24 329.73 334.42 328.57 321.59 314.85 277.63 288.06 14 Economic Indicators / Third Quarter 2003 Initial Claims 16,544 13,434 14,878 13,060 13,623 13,272 15,564 14,296 12,127 13,135 Unemployment Continued Claims 183,017 171,515 186,676 173,034 163,621 158,677 178,406 145,031 151,334 188,490 Rate 4.4% 5.2% 5.9% 5.6% 5.2% 4.7% 5.5% 5.3% 4.9% 4.8% Georgia Department of Labor PERCENTAGES MILLIONS Metro Atlanta 2.9 2001-2002 2002-2003 2.5 2.1 1.7 1.3 Insured Unemployment Rate 0.9 6. 8 6. 3 5. 8 5. 3 4. 8 MARTA Passengers 4. 3 245 MILLIONS HOUSEHOLD UNITS ( THOUSANDS ) 7. 5 6. 6 5. 8 4. 9 4. 1 3. 2 $ 600 $ 480 $ 360 $ 240 $ 120 $0 $ 431 2001-2002 2002-2003 Residential Construction Nonresidential Construction 221 $ 346 197 $ 261 MILLIONS 173 $ 176 149 Cobb Community Transit Passengers $ 91 Deflated Nonresidential Construction 125 O N D J F M A M J J A S $6 O N D J F M A M J J A S THOUSANDS Period 2001 :Q4 2002 :Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2003 :Q1 Q2 Jul Aug Sep Insured Unemployment Rate 2 1.95% 2.06% 1.96% 1.83% 1.84% 1.81% 1.93% 1.89% 1.74% 1.75% Transit Passengers MARTA 1 5,904,600 5,618,800 5,637,400 5,361,200 5,456,900 5,476,300 5,570,400 5,002,800 5,184,000 5,981,200 Cobb Community 187,516 175,120 167,733 178,376 193,958 191,127 190,276 199,742 190,624 216,617 Construction Residential 3 5,122 5,181 5,721 5,180 5,442 4,831 4,623 5,787 5,921 6,738 Nonresidential $317,069,000 296,865,000 283,007,000 290,063,000 285,491,000 236,366,000 250,483,000 296,132,000 193,034,000 382,420,000 Deflated Non-res $257,966,667 238,733,333 228,600,000 234,166,667 230,166,667 187,600,000 195,200,000 229,900,000 150,300,000 297,600,000 1 Data rounded 2 Rate at the end of each quarter, except for monthly rates. Georgia Department of Labor 3 Household units Economic Indicators / Thrid Quarter 2003 15 PERCENTAGES DOLLARS Metro Atlanta 75 2001-2002 2002-2003 69 63 56 50 Hotel Occupancy 44 $87 $82 $78 $74 $69 Average Hotel Room Rates $65 $ 49 PERCENTAGES PERCENTAGES 7. 50 6. 90 2001-2002 2002-2003 6. 30 5. 70 5. 10 Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates 4. 50 7.10 6.48 5.86 5.24 4.62 Average 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates 4.00 7.61 $ 47 6.43 PERCENTAGES $ 44 5.25 $ 41 4.07 $ 38 Deflated Average Hotel Room Rates $ 35 O N D J F M A M J J A 2.89 Average One-Year Adjustable Mortgage Rates 1.71 S O N D J F M A M J J A S DOLLARS Period 2001 :Q4 2002 :Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2003 :Q1 Q2 Jul Aug Sep Occupancy % 58.4% 60.2% 57.8% 57.7% 58.2% 56.8% 55.3% #N/A #N/A #N/A Hotel Data Room Rates $76.60 77.65 77.55 75.75 77.10 74.18 72.16 #N/A #N/A #N/A 1 Rate does not include points 16 Economic Indicators / Third Quarter 2003 Deflated Room Rates $43.09 43.81 43.59 42.12 42.69 40.95 39.43 #N/A #N/A #N/A 3 0 - Ye a r Fixed 1 7.17% 7.00% 6.60% 6.16% 6.00% 5.74% 5.22% 5.66% 6.32% 6.20% Mortgage Rates 1 5 - Ye a r Fixed 1 O n e - Ye a r Rate Adjustable 1 6.65% 6.55% 6.11% 5.58% 5.40% 5.10% 4.61% 5.02% 5.63% 5.47% 5.26% 4.98% 4.29% 4.20% 3.63% 3.43% 3.18% 3.34% 3.69% 3.66% Georgia Department of Labor Dear Subscriber to Economic Indicators: Several new methods for releasing the Economic Indicators publication have been introduced within the last few years. 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