Georgia-Atlanta economic indicators. Quarterly report, Vol. 9, no. 1 (First quarter 2003)

Economic

Indicators

A Quarterly Report of Georgia and Metro Atlanta Labor Market and Economic Trends

First Quarter 2003

Volume 9, Issue 1

Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner

Georgia-Atlanta Economic Indicators
Quarterly Report First Quarter - 2003
Volume 9, Issue 1

Cover art: Morton Theatre, Athens,Georgia by Huey J. Theus, Mableton, Georgia
Georgia Economic Indicators, Quarterly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 232-3875.
Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us

Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner

Equal Opportunity Employer/Programs - Auxiliary Aids and Services Available Upon Request to Individuals With Disabilities

Georgia Department of Labor

Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2003

Introduction

G eorgia Economic Indicators, Quarterly Report, is designed to provide in a single publication data on a
number of indicators used to measure movement of the state's economy.
Our publication has changed.
The Georgia and Metropolitan Altanta Economic Indicator series, previously published as two separate monthly publications, are now published as a single quarterly publication. Additional data series for Georgia's other six metropolitan statistical areas are being developed and will be added to this publication later in the year. Graphs will continue to display data on monthly increments; whereas, companion data tables will display the 3-month average for each series (for 7 quarters) before alternating to a monthly format for the most recent quarter.
All data except those contained in the U.S. Consumer Price Index chart on Page 3 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data that have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars.
Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually.
Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning Georgia Economic Indicators, Quarterly Report and Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Bill Webb, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 232-3875.

Data Sources

Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Manufacturing Workweek and Employment data. -- Georgia Department of Labor
Consumer Price Index -- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, adapted from commentary by Michael Wald New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group MARTA Passengers -- Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit System CCT Passengers -- Cobb Community Transit System Hotel Occupancy and Room Rates -- Smith Travel Research, Hendersonville, TN Mortgage Rates -- HSH Associates, Financial Publishers, Butler, NJ
* Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center

2 Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2003

Georgia Department of Labor

Consumer Price Index

Chart is not seasonally adjusted

YEAR 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

JAN
127.4 134.6 138.1 142.6 146.2 150.3 154.4 159.1 161.6 164.3 168.7 175.1 177.1 181.7

FEB
128.0 134.8 138.6 143.1 146.7 150.9 154.9 159.6 161.9 164.5 169.7 175.8 177.8 183.1

MAR
128.7 135.0 139.3 143.6 147.2 151.4 155.7 160.0 162.2 165.0 171.1 176.2 178.8 184.2

APR
128.9 135.2 139.5 144.0 147.4 151.9 156.3 160.2 162.5 166.2 171.2 176.9 179.8

MAY
129.2 135.6 139.7 144.2 147.5 152.2 156.6 160.1 162.8 166.2 171.3 177.7 179.8

JUN
129.9 136.0 140.2 144.4 148.0 152.5 156.7 160.3 163.0 166.2 172.3 178.0 179.9

JUL
130.4 136.2 140.5 144.4 148.4 152.5 157.0 160.5 163.2 166.7 172.6 177.5 180.1

AUG
131.6 136.6 140.9 144.8 149.0 152.9 157.3 160.8 163.4 167.1 172.8 177.5 180.7

SEP
132.7 137.2 141.3 145.1 149.4 153.2 157.8 161.2 163.6 167.9 173.7 178.3 181.0

OCT
133.5 137.4 141.9 145.7 149.5 153.7 158.3 161.6 164.0 168.2 174.0 177.7 181.3

NOV
133.8 137.8 142.0 145.8 149.7 153.6 158.6 161.5 164.0 168.3 174.1 177.4 181.3

DEC
133.8 137.9 141.9 145.8 149.7 153.5 158.6 161.3 163.9 168.3 174.0 176.7 180.9

AVG
130.7 136.2 140.3 144.5 148.2 152.4 156.9 160.5 163.0 166.6 172.1 177.1 179.9

CPI RATE
6.1% 3.1% 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 3.3% 1.7% 1.6% 2.7% 3.4% 1.6% 2.4%

Source: U.S. Bureau Of Labor Statistics @WWW.BLS.GOV

CPI Accelerates in March

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent in March, before seasonal adjustment, as recently reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. The March level of 184.2 (1982-84=100) was 3.0 percent higher than its level in March 2002.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U rose 0.3 percent in March, following increases of 0.6 percent in February. Energy costs again rose sharply, up 4.6 percent in March, and accounted for over 90 percent of the advance in the overall CPI-U. Within energy, the index for petroleum-based energy advanced 4.3 percent and the index for energy services increased 5.0 percent. The index for all items less food and energy was unchanged in March after increasing 0.1 percent in both January and February.
For the first three months of 2003, consumer prices increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 5.2 percent. This compares with an increase of 2.4 percent for all of 2002. The index for energy, which

rose 10.7 percent in 2002, accelerated in the first quarter of 2003, advancing at a 76.5 percent SAAR and accounting for about 80 percent of the first quarter advance in the overall CPI-U.
Petroleum-based energy costs increased at a 125.0 percent annual rate and charges for energy services rose at a 37.4 percent annual rate. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U advanced at a 0.8 percent SAAR in the first quarter, following a 1.9 percent rise in all of 2002.
The index for housing rose 0.4 percent in March. Shelter costs were virtually unchanged for the second consecutive month. The index for fuels and utilities rose 4.4 percent in March. The indexes for fuel oil increased 9.8 percent in March, and prices for fuel oil were 60.0 percent higher than in March 2002. The index for electricity increased 0.8 percent in March, accounting for all of its increase in the last 12 months.
The transportation index rose 1.0 percent in March, following increases of 1.1 and 2.0 percent in the preceding

two months. The index for gasoline, which rose 6.6 and 9.9 percent in January and February, respectively, increased 4.1 percent in March. As of March, the price of gasoline was 1.0 percent higher than its previous peak level of May 2001. Airline fares increased for the second consecutive month, up 1.9 percent in March, but are 1.8 percent lower than a year ago.
The index for apparel declined 0.4 percent in March. (Prior to seasonal adjustment, apparel prices rose 2.5 percent, reflecting the introduction of spring-summer apparel wear.)
Medical care costs rose 0.2 percent in March to a level 4.3 percent higher than a year ago. The index for medical care commodities rose 0.4 percent. The index for medical care services rose 0.1 percent in March. Charges for professional services and for hospital and related services increased 0.1 and 0.2 percent, respectively.

Georgia Department of Labor

Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2003 3

Georgia Index of Economic Indicators
208
Leading indicators Coincident indicators
181

154

128

101
1990 = 100

74 1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

Georgia's Economic Indicators take a dip in the first quarter

Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted.
*** Georgia's Department of Labor's Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), ended the first quarter in negative territory. The index declined to 175.0 in March after increasing to 175.23 in January (a gain of 1.4 percent) and to 175.28 (a gain of 0.03 percent) in February. Initial jobless claims took off in March increasing initial unemployment claims 22.1 percent; in addition to a 20.5 percent drop in March for new business filings. The 20.8 percent gain in the value of commercial construction was not enough to turn the indicator positive. The other sectors, residential construction and sales of new motor vehicles remained in positive single digit territory.
The manufacturing work week

managed to stay above 40 hours in March up slightly from February's reading.
The Coincident Economic Indicator (CEI) also declined in the first quarter. The index began at 170.8 in January to barely breaking even at 171.0 in February then declining to 169.2 in March.
Retail employment numbers for the first quarter came in a little stronger than last year's level for the same time period. The state's unemployment rate for February and March were revised upward to 4.6 and 4.7 percent, respectively. Total state revenue continues to mirror last years pattern as recovery prospects continue to develop.

Overall, the economic picture remains mixed laced with unsure consumer confidence, strong demand for starter homes, continuing downsizing and stagnant new job growth.
The Leading Index reflects activity that will impact the economy for a duration of three to six months into the future. Coincident indicators measure current conditions.

4 Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2003

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia
Nonagricultural Employment change from previous month
Retail Employment change from previous month
Manufacturing Employment change from previous month
Manufacturing Workweek (hours) change from previous month
Weekly Manufacturing Earnings change from previous month
Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled change from previous month
Initial Unemployment Claims change from previous month
Continued Unemployment Claims change from previous month
Unemployment rate (not seasonally adjusted) change from previous month
Insured Unemployment Rate change from previous month
New Motor Vehicle Sales change from previous month
Residential Construction ( building permits ) change from previous month
Nonresidential Construction ( dollar value ) change from previous month
New Business Corporations change from previous month
Total State Revenues ( in millions ) change from previous month
Deflated State Revenues ( in millions ) change from previous month

March 2003
3,912,301 0.09%
459,591 -0.88%
455,065 -1.21%
40.9 0.16%
$566.86 -0.84%
12,003 3.07%
55,465 22.19%
341,074 12.47%
4.7% - -
1.99% - -
42,496 7.71%
7,196 8.87%
$478,738,843 20.80%
4,324 -20.51%
$895,170,415 -11.66%
485,977,200 -12.18%

February 2003
3,908,851 -0.05%
463,685 1.08%
460,661 -1.53%
40.8 1.82%
$571.68 3.08%
11,646 7.72%
45,394 -1.83%
303,271 19.04%
4.6% - -
1.88% - -
39,455 -26.58%
6,610 -19.81%
$396,306,458 12.61%
5,440 7.01%
$1,013,292,058 -15.83%
553,408,000 -16.47%

January 2003
3,910,954 - -
458,720 - -
467,841 - -
40.1 - -
$554.59 - -
10,811 - -
46,239 - -
254,757 - -
4.5% - -
1.91% - -
53,735 - -
8,243 - -
$351,920,504 - -
5,084 - -
$1,203,870,339 - -
662,559,200 - -

Georgia Department of Labor

Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2003 5

MILLIONS

THOUSANDS

GEORGIA

4.02

2001- 2002 2002- 2003

3.98

3.93

3.89

HOURS

45.2 2001- 2002 2002- 2003
43.7
42.3
40.8

3.84
Nonagricultural Employment
3.80
500
480
460
440

DOLLARS

39.4 37.9 $610 $580 $550 $520

Manufacturing Workweek

420
Retail Employment
400
560

$490
Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings
$460
$325

530

$310

500

$295

DOLLARS

470

$280

440

$265

Manufacturing Employment

Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings

410

$250

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

Employment

2001: Q2 Q3 Q4
2002: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2003: Jan. Feb. Mar.

Nonag
3,950,641 3,932,362 3,904,177 3,917,900 3,907,837 3,900,149 3,897,861 3,910,954 3,908,851 3,912,301

Retail
461,564 458,481 453,450 453,237 456,186 453,215 454,103 458,720 463,685 459,591

Mfg.
504,720 490,195 478,563 471,521 472,759 473,759 469,658 467,841 460,661 455,065

All graphs contain monthly data and are seasonally adjusted, except where noted.

Manufacturing

Avg. Work Week

Weekly Earnings

40.1

$495.04

41.2

525.03

40.3

516.67

41.1

549.23

41.1

545.70

40.7

534.06

40.7

560.83

40.1

554.59

40.8

571.68

40.9

566.86

Deflated Wkly Earnings
$278.83 295.35 291.47 308.73 303.45 295.71 309.57 305.22 312.22 307.74

THOUSANDS

6 Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2003

Georgia Department of Labor

THOUSANDS

THOUSANDS

GEORGIA
19. 7
2001- 2002 2002- 2003
16. 2

5.9 2001- 2002 2002- 2003
5.2

PERCENTAGES

12. 7

4.6

9. 2

4.0

5. 7
Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled
2. 2
99.6
80.9
62.1
43.4
24.6
Initial Unemployment Claims
5.9 485.6

PERCENTAGES

3.3 2.7 2.76 2.26 1.76 1.26 0.76 0.26 63

Unemployment Rate Insured Unemployment Rate

392.5

56

THOUSANDS

299.4

50

206.2

43

113.1

37

Continued Unemployment Claims

New Motor Vehicle Sales

20.0

30

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

THOUSANDS

2001: Q2 Q3 Q4
2002: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2003: Jan. Feb. Mar.

Job Openings
9,059 8,287 7,624 9,214 9,697 10,246 10,690 10,811 11,646 12,003

Initial Claims
57,570 53,592 61,024 46,376 49,953 44,835 50,556 46,239 45,394 55,465

1 Rate at the end of each quarter, except for monthly rates. Georgia Department of Labor

Unemployment

Continued Claims

Rate 1

257,142

4.5%

277,203

4.2%

348,012

4.3%

309,885

4.6%

342,513

5.2%

321,650

4.8%

303,933

4.6%

254,757

4.5%

303,271

4.6%

341,074

4.7%

Insured 1
1.59% 1.73% 2.09% 2.06% 1.94% 1.96% 2.19% 1.91% 1.88% 1.99%

New Motor Vehicle Sales
43,837 47,677 47,801 46,658 43,752 47,308 42,452 53,735 39,455 42,496

Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2003 7

HOUSEHOLD UNITS

MILLIONS

GEORGIA

10,277 9,388

2001- 2002 2002- 2003

8,499

7,609

6,720 5,831
$810

Residential Construction 2

CHARTERS

7,123 6,068 5,014 3,959 2,905 1,850 $1,683

2001- 2002 2002- 2003
New Business Corporations 3

$672
$534
$396
$258
Nonresidential Construction
$120 $675

MILLIONS

$1,466 $1,250 $1,033
$817 $600
$940

Total State Revenue

$550

$823

$425

$706

MILLIONS

$300

$589

$175
Deflated Nonresidential Construction

$472
Deflated Total State Revenue

$50

$355

A

M

J

J

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D

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A

M

J

J

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MILLIONS

Construction

Residential 2 Non-residential 1 Deflated non-res 1

2001: Q2

8,117

$468,826,000

$393,750,800

Q3

7,639

496,546,000

414,825,400

Q4

7,428

499,825,000

415,367,000

2002: Q1

7,794

441,608,000

364,262,900

Q2

8,400

448,637,000

368,439,900

Q3

7,861

436,092,000

357,062,200

Q4

7,970

492,563,000

399,375,400

2003: Jan. Feb.

8,243 6,610

351,921,000 396,306,000

281,311,800 316,033,500

Mar.

7,196

478,739,000

380,858,400

1 Data rounded 2 Household units 3 Includes limited liability companies

8 Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2003

New Business Corporations 3
4,561 4,846 3,645 5,236 4,785 5,180 5,186 5,084 5,440 4,324

Total State Revenue 1 Deflated Rev. 1
$1,191,590,000 $671,192,300 1,098,360,000 617,866,100 1,089,340,000 614,520,500 1,040,070,000 584,637,400 1,131,250,000 629,054,700 1,004,900,000 556,423,000 1,073,530,000 592,564,900 1,203,870,000 662,559,200 1,013,290,000 553,408,000
895,170,000 485,977,200
Georgia Department of Labor

Metro Atlanta Index of Economic Indicators
184.9
Leading indicators Coincident indicators
165.6

146.3

127.1

107.8
1995-96 = 100

88.5

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

Metro Atlanta waits for the economy to turn the corner

Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted.

***

Economic growth has declined over the last several quarters, adding a layer of uncertainty to the economy. The transition from the old economy in the 90's to the 21st century has been long awaited. After all, economic progress will return, but the question is what type of economy will emerge after we turn the corner?
The Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for Metropolitan Atlanta increased from 168.3 in January to 170.4 in March, ending the quarter up 1.2 percent.
The commercial construction sector led the LEI with two consecutive months of gains, up 56.38 percent in February and 13.8 percent in March. Nonresidential construction activity remains low in comparison to previous time periods. Sales of new homes

(driven by low interest rates) seem to be holding up despite fears of a housing bubble. Permits for new homes increased 13.0 percent in March after declining 9.7 percent in February. Manufacturing hours worked declined slightly in March; however, the weekly average remains close to 40. Initial unemployment claims, a gauge used to measure the condition of the current job market, continue to hover around last year's levels.
The Coincident Economic Indicator, which measures current economic conditions, increased from 158.3 in January to 159.9 in March, an increase of 1.0 percent for the quarter.
Unemployment in the metro area remained stable (at 4.7%) during the

first quarter. Retail employment increased in February (up 1.4 percent) and then declined 1.8 percent in March, averaging 167 thousand jobs in the first quarter. The curvature of the coincident indicator has been elevated due to the transition from SIC to NAICS industry coding and revised benchmarked data (detecting an increase in retail jobs ). The insured unemployment rate edged up slightly to 1.81% in March.
The economy seems to be continuing to turn around slowly. No phenomenal gains were recorded during the first quarter. We will have to wait until the second quarter to determine the mind set of consumers and business.

Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2003

Georgia Department of Labor 9

Metro Atlanta

Mar-2003

Feb-2003

Percent Percent

Change Change

Feb-2003 Jan-2003

to

to

Jan-2003 Mar-2003 Feb-2003

Nonagricultural Employment

2,187,205

Wholesale Employment

140,487

Retail Employment

249,062

Accommodation and Food Services Employment

169,515

Manufacturing Employment

166,717

Government Employment

289,299

Construction Employment

121,165

Trans., Warehousing and Utilities Employment

112,311

Financial Activities Employment

144,335

Professional and Business Services Employment

366,895

Hospital Services Employment

57,928

Social Assistance Employment

25,729

Manufacturing Workweek

39.4

Manufacturing Earnings

$584.01

Deflated Manufacturing Earnings

$317.05

Initial Unemployment Claims

13,304

Continued Unemployment Claims

184,529

Total Unemployment Rate (not seasonally adjusted )

4.7

Insured Unemployment Rate

1.81%

MARTA Passengers

5,422,000

Cobb County Transit Passengers

191,194

Residential Construction (household units)

5,060

Nonresidential Construction (value)

$290,530,000

Deflated Nonresidential Construction

$231,100,000

Hotel Occupancy

55.2%

Average Hotel Room Rates

$72.15

Deflated Average Hotel Room Rate

$39.17

Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate

5.74%

Average 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate

5.10%

Average One-Year Adjustable Mortgage Rate

3.43%

2,178,846 140,698 253,791 167,385 167,600 289,869 118,244 112,209 143,728 354,871 57,430 26,068 39.9 $606.73 $331.36 13,338 157,790 4.7 1.77%
5,352,000 187,400 4,476
$255,299,000 $203,600,000
60.1% $75.84 $41.42 5.80% 5.20% 3.50%

2,174,554 141,331 250,216 164,954 167,409 290,475 116,548 113,156 145,545 357,807 56,779 26,470 38.6 $587.95 $323.58 13,175 133,712 4.7 1.74%
5,655,000 194,787 4,957
$163,268,000 $130,500,000
55.0% $74.55 $41.03 5.90% 5.28% 3.61%

0.38% -0.15% -1.86% 1.27% -0.53% -0.20% 2.47% 0.09% 0.42% 3.39% 0.87% -1.30% -1.44% -3.74% -4.32% -0.26% 16.95%
1.31% 2.02% 13.06% 13.80% 13.51% -4.87% -5.44% -

0.20% -0.45% 1.43% 1.47% 0.11% -0.21% 1.46% -0.84% -1.25% -0.82% 1.15% -1.52% 3.55% 3.19% 2.41% 1.24% 18.01%
-5.36% -3.79% -9.71% 56.37% 56.02% 1.73% 0.95% -

10 Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2003

Georgia Department of Labor

MILLIONS

THOUSANDS

Metro Atlanta

2.24 2.22

2001-2002 2002-2003

2.19

300 2001- 2002 2002- 2003
250
200

THOUSANDS

2.17
2.14
Nonagricultural Employment
2.12 155
150
145
140
135
Wholesale Employment
130
270

THOUSANDS

150
100
Accommodation and Food Services
50 300
290
280 270
260
Manufacturing employment
250 310

260

300

THOUSANDS

250

290

240

280

230
Retail Employment

270
Government Employment

220

260

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

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F

M

Period
2001 :Q2 Q3 Q4
2002 :Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2003 Jan. Feb. Mar.

Nonag
2,200,741 2,189,656 2,170,232 2,179,602 2,187,850 2,170,072 2,165,678 2,174,554 2,178,846 2,187,205

Wholesale
142,981 142,935 140,392 142,714 143,538 140,903 140,245 141,331 140,698 140,487

Employment

Retail
254,978 253,176 249,327 247,873 249,841 248,473 247,770 250,216 253,791 249,062

Accom. & Food Services
170,963 168,195 170,810 167,837 172,037 167,944 166,992 164,954 167,385 169,515

Manufacturing
185,754 180,238 174,470 171,189 173,126 169,593 169,181 167,409 167,600 166,717

Government
273,275 277,440 278,909 278,665 282,007 286,104 288,326 290,475 289,869 289,299

THOUSANDS

Georgia Department of Labor

Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2003 11

THOUSANDS

THOUSANDS

Metro Atlanta
132 2001-2002 2002-2003
126
120
114
108
Construction Employment
102
140
130
120
110
100
Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Employment
90
155

THOUSANDS

THOUSANDS

400 2001- 2002 2002- 2003
380
360
340
320
Professional and Business Services Employment
300
80
70
60
50
40
Hospital Services Employment
30
40

151

35

147

30

THOUSANDS

143

25

139
Financial Activities Employment

20
Social Assistance Employment

135

15

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

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D

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F

M

Period
2001 :Q2 Q3 Q4
2002 :Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2003 Jan. Feb. Mar.

Construction
121,628 120,630 119,221 121,539 118,075 116,408 116,369 116,548 118,244 121,165

Trans, Ware & Utilities
121,291 121,417 118,616 115,924 116,827 113,881 111,873 113,156 112,209 112,311

Employment

Financial Activities

Professional & Business Services

365,598 363,102 358,915 363,112 365,666 359,489 355,674 357,807 354,871 366,895

365,598 363,102 358,915 363,112 365,666 359,489 355,674 357,807 354,871 366,895

Hospital Services
53,185 54,282 54,823 56,012 55,545 55,074 56,032 56,779 57,430 57,928

Social Assistance
24,274 24,810 25,010 24,971 25,311 25,183 25,330 26,470 26,068 25,729

THOUSANDS

12 Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2003

Georgia Department of Labor

HOURS

DOLLARS

Metro Atlanta
44.8 2001- 2002 2002- 2003
43.0
41.3
39.5
37.8
Manufacturing Workweek
36.0
$660
$630
$600
$570
$540
Manufacturing Earnings
$510
$450

THOUSANDS

THOUSANDS

25.8 2001-2002 2002-2003
21.0
16.2
11.5
6.7
Initial Unemployment Claims
1.9
277
222
166
111
55
Continued Unemployment Claims
0
6.4

$400

5.4

PERCENTAGES

$350

4.5

$300

3.6

$250

2.6

Deflated Manufacturing Earnings

Total Unemployment Rate

$200

1.7

AM J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

FM

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

DOLLARS

Period
2001 :Q2 Q3 Q4
2002 :Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2003 Jan. Feb. Mar.

Work Week (hrs)
40.0 41.7 39.8 40.1 40.0 39.0 39.5 38.6 39.9 39.4

Manufacturing
Weekly Earnings
$550.39 587.04 585.21 617.37 607.08 592.97 603.96 587.95 606.73 584.01

Deflated Earnings
$310.01 330.23 330.14 347.00 337.58 328.33 333.37 323.58 331.36 317.05

Initial Claims
11,593 12,560 16,544 13,434 14,878 13,060 13,623 13,175 13,338 13,304

Unemployment
Continued Claims
107,502 126,694 183,017 171,515 186,676 173,034 163,621 133,712 157,790 184,529

Rate
3.6% 3.8% 4.4% 5.2% 5.9% 5.6% 5.2% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7%

Georgia Department of Labor

Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2003 13

PERCENTAGES

MILLIONS

Metro Atlanta
2.6 2001- 2002 2002- 2003
2.1
1.6
1.1
0.6
Insured Unemployment Rate
0.0
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
Marta Passengers
4.5
224

MILLIONS

HOUSEHOLD UNITS ( THOUSANDS )

7.5 6.6 5.8 4.9 4.1 3.2 $645 $518 $391 $264 $137 $10 $431

2001-2002 2002- 2003
Residential Construction 3
Nonresidential Construction

197

$346

171

$261

MILLIONS

144

$176

117
Cobb Community Transit Passengers

$91
Deflated Nonresidential Construction

91

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

$6

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

THOUSANDS

Period
2001 :Q2 Q3 Q4
2002 :Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2003 Jan. Feb. Mar.

Insured Unemployment
Rate 2
1.15% 1.50% 1.91% 2.00% 2.04% 1.81% 1.83% 1.74% 1.77% 1.81%

Transit Passengers

Marta 1
6,454,000 5,831,900 5,904,600 5,618,800 5,637,400 5,361,200 5,456,900 5,654,800 5,351,600 5,422,500

Cobb Community
163,759 177,181 187,516 175,120 167,733 178,376 193,958 194,787 187,400 191,194

Construction

Residential 3
5,555 5,202 5,122 5,181 5,721 5,180 5,442 4,957 4,476 5,060

Nonresidential
$335,900,000 338,729,000 317,069,000 296,865,000 283,007,000 290,063,000 285,491,000 163,268,000 255,299,000 290,530,000

Deflated Non-res
$282,266,667 283,000,000 263,466,667 244,866,667 232,400,000 237,466,667 231,500,000 130,500,000 203,600,000 231,100,000

1 Data rounded 2 Rate at the end of each quarter, except for monthly rates.
14 Georgia Department of Labor

3 Household units Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2003

PERCENTAGES

DOLLARS

Metro Atlanta
75 2001- 2002 2002- 2003
69
63

8.00 2001- 2002 2002- 2003
7.40
6.80

PERCENTAGES

56

6.20

50
Hotel Occupancy
44
$89

5.60
Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate 1
5.00
7.60

$84

6.98

PERCENTAGES

$80

6.36

$76
$71
Average Hotel Room Rates
$67 $51
$49
$46

5.74
5.12
Average 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate 1
4.50
7.61
6.43
5.25

PERCENTAGES

$43

4.07

$40

$37

A

M

Deflated Average Hotel Room Rates

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

2.89

Average One-Year Adjustable Mortgage Rate 1

1.71

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

DOLLARS

Period
2001 :Q2 Q3 Q4
2002 :Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2003 Jan. Feb. Mar.

Occupancy %
62.7% 58.3% 58.4% 60.2% 57.8% 57.7% 58.2% 55.0% 60.1% 55.2%

1 Rate does not include points

Georgia Department of Labor

Hotel Data
Room Rates
$80.33 76.20 76.60 77.65 77.55 75.75 77.10 74.55 75.84 72.15

Deflated Room Rates
$45.24 42.87 43.21 43.65 43.13 41.94 42.56 41.03 41.42 39.17

3 0 - Ye a r Fixed 1
7.2% 6.8% 7.2% 7.0% 6.6% 6.2% 6.0% 5.9% 5.8% 5.7%

Mortgage Rates

1 5 - Ye a r Fixed 1

O n e - Ye a r Rate Adjustable 1

6.8%

5.7%

6.4%

5.4%

6.7%

5.3%

6.6%

5.0%

6.1%

4.3%

5.6%

4.2%

5.4%

3.6%

5.3%

3.6%

5.2%

3.5%

5.1%

3.4%

Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2003 15

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