Economic Indicators A Quarterly Report of Georgia and Metro Atlanta Labor Market and Economic Trends First Quarter 2003 Volume 9, Issue 1 Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner Georgia-Atlanta Economic Indicators Quarterly Report First Quarter - 2003 Volume 9, Issue 1 Cover art: Morton Theatre, Athens,Georgia by Huey J. Theus, Mableton, Georgia Georgia Economic Indicators, Quarterly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 232-3875. Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner Equal Opportunity Employer/Programs - Auxiliary Aids and Services Available Upon Request to Individuals With Disabilities Georgia Department of Labor Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2003 Introduction G eorgia Economic Indicators, Quarterly Report, is designed to provide in a single publication data on a number of indicators used to measure movement of the state's economy. Our publication has changed. The Georgia and Metropolitan Altanta Economic Indicator series, previously published as two separate monthly publications, are now published as a single quarterly publication. Additional data series for Georgia's other six metropolitan statistical areas are being developed and will be added to this publication later in the year. Graphs will continue to display data on monthly increments; whereas, companion data tables will display the 3-month average for each series (for 7 quarters) before alternating to a monthly format for the most recent quarter. All data except those contained in the U.S. Consumer Price Index chart on Page 3 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data that have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars. Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually. Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning Georgia Economic Indicators, Quarterly Report and Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Bill Webb, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 232-3875. Data Sources Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Manufacturing Workweek and Employment data. -- Georgia Department of Labor Consumer Price Index -- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, adapted from commentary by Michael Wald New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group MARTA Passengers -- Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit System CCT Passengers -- Cobb Community Transit System Hotel Occupancy and Room Rates -- Smith Travel Research, Hendersonville, TN Mortgage Rates -- HSH Associates, Financial Publishers, Butler, NJ * Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center 2 Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2003 Georgia Department of Labor Consumer Price Index Chart is not seasonally adjusted YEAR 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 JAN 127.4 134.6 138.1 142.6 146.2 150.3 154.4 159.1 161.6 164.3 168.7 175.1 177.1 181.7 FEB 128.0 134.8 138.6 143.1 146.7 150.9 154.9 159.6 161.9 164.5 169.7 175.8 177.8 183.1 MAR 128.7 135.0 139.3 143.6 147.2 151.4 155.7 160.0 162.2 165.0 171.1 176.2 178.8 184.2 APR 128.9 135.2 139.5 144.0 147.4 151.9 156.3 160.2 162.5 166.2 171.2 176.9 179.8 MAY 129.2 135.6 139.7 144.2 147.5 152.2 156.6 160.1 162.8 166.2 171.3 177.7 179.8 JUN 129.9 136.0 140.2 144.4 148.0 152.5 156.7 160.3 163.0 166.2 172.3 178.0 179.9 JUL 130.4 136.2 140.5 144.4 148.4 152.5 157.0 160.5 163.2 166.7 172.6 177.5 180.1 AUG 131.6 136.6 140.9 144.8 149.0 152.9 157.3 160.8 163.4 167.1 172.8 177.5 180.7 SEP 132.7 137.2 141.3 145.1 149.4 153.2 157.8 161.2 163.6 167.9 173.7 178.3 181.0 OCT 133.5 137.4 141.9 145.7 149.5 153.7 158.3 161.6 164.0 168.2 174.0 177.7 181.3 NOV 133.8 137.8 142.0 145.8 149.7 153.6 158.6 161.5 164.0 168.3 174.1 177.4 181.3 DEC 133.8 137.9 141.9 145.8 149.7 153.5 158.6 161.3 163.9 168.3 174.0 176.7 180.9 AVG 130.7 136.2 140.3 144.5 148.2 152.4 156.9 160.5 163.0 166.6 172.1 177.1 179.9 CPI RATE 6.1% 3.1% 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 3.3% 1.7% 1.6% 2.7% 3.4% 1.6% 2.4% Source: U.S. Bureau Of Labor Statistics @WWW.BLS.GOV CPI Accelerates in March The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent in March, before seasonal adjustment, as recently reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. The March level of 184.2 (1982-84=100) was 3.0 percent higher than its level in March 2002. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U rose 0.3 percent in March, following increases of 0.6 percent in February. Energy costs again rose sharply, up 4.6 percent in March, and accounted for over 90 percent of the advance in the overall CPI-U. Within energy, the index for petroleum-based energy advanced 4.3 percent and the index for energy services increased 5.0 percent. The index for all items less food and energy was unchanged in March after increasing 0.1 percent in both January and February. For the first three months of 2003, consumer prices increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 5.2 percent. This compares with an increase of 2.4 percent for all of 2002. The index for energy, which rose 10.7 percent in 2002, accelerated in the first quarter of 2003, advancing at a 76.5 percent SAAR and accounting for about 80 percent of the first quarter advance in the overall CPI-U. Petroleum-based energy costs increased at a 125.0 percent annual rate and charges for energy services rose at a 37.4 percent annual rate. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U advanced at a 0.8 percent SAAR in the first quarter, following a 1.9 percent rise in all of 2002. The index for housing rose 0.4 percent in March. Shelter costs were virtually unchanged for the second consecutive month. The index for fuels and utilities rose 4.4 percent in March. The indexes for fuel oil increased 9.8 percent in March, and prices for fuel oil were 60.0 percent higher than in March 2002. The index for electricity increased 0.8 percent in March, accounting for all of its increase in the last 12 months. The transportation index rose 1.0 percent in March, following increases of 1.1 and 2.0 percent in the preceding two months. The index for gasoline, which rose 6.6 and 9.9 percent in January and February, respectively, increased 4.1 percent in March. As of March, the price of gasoline was 1.0 percent higher than its previous peak level of May 2001. Airline fares increased for the second consecutive month, up 1.9 percent in March, but are 1.8 percent lower than a year ago. The index for apparel declined 0.4 percent in March. (Prior to seasonal adjustment, apparel prices rose 2.5 percent, reflecting the introduction of spring-summer apparel wear.) Medical care costs rose 0.2 percent in March to a level 4.3 percent higher than a year ago. The index for medical care commodities rose 0.4 percent. The index for medical care services rose 0.1 percent in March. Charges for professional services and for hospital and related services increased 0.1 and 0.2 percent, respectively. Georgia Department of Labor Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2003 3 Georgia Index of Economic Indicators 208 Leading indicators Coincident indicators 181 154 128 101 1990 = 100 74 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Georgia's Economic Indicators take a dip in the first quarter Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted. *** Georgia's Department of Labor's Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), ended the first quarter in negative territory. The index declined to 175.0 in March after increasing to 175.23 in January (a gain of 1.4 percent) and to 175.28 (a gain of 0.03 percent) in February. Initial jobless claims took off in March increasing initial unemployment claims 22.1 percent; in addition to a 20.5 percent drop in March for new business filings. The 20.8 percent gain in the value of commercial construction was not enough to turn the indicator positive. The other sectors, residential construction and sales of new motor vehicles remained in positive single digit territory. The manufacturing work week managed to stay above 40 hours in March up slightly from February's reading. The Coincident Economic Indicator (CEI) also declined in the first quarter. The index began at 170.8 in January to barely breaking even at 171.0 in February then declining to 169.2 in March. Retail employment numbers for the first quarter came in a little stronger than last year's level for the same time period. The state's unemployment rate for February and March were revised upward to 4.6 and 4.7 percent, respectively. Total state revenue continues to mirror last years pattern as recovery prospects continue to develop. Overall, the economic picture remains mixed laced with unsure consumer confidence, strong demand for starter homes, continuing downsizing and stagnant new job growth. The Leading Index reflects activity that will impact the economy for a duration of three to six months into the future. Coincident indicators measure current conditions. 4 Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2003 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Nonagricultural Employment change from previous month Retail Employment change from previous month Manufacturing Employment change from previous month Manufacturing Workweek (hours) change from previous month Weekly Manufacturing Earnings change from previous month Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled change from previous month Initial Unemployment Claims change from previous month Continued Unemployment Claims change from previous month Unemployment rate (not seasonally adjusted) change from previous month Insured Unemployment Rate change from previous month New Motor Vehicle Sales change from previous month Residential Construction ( building permits ) change from previous month Nonresidential Construction ( dollar value ) change from previous month New Business Corporations change from previous month Total State Revenues ( in millions ) change from previous month Deflated State Revenues ( in millions ) change from previous month March 2003 3,912,301 0.09% 459,591 -0.88% 455,065 -1.21% 40.9 0.16% $566.86 -0.84% 12,003 3.07% 55,465 22.19% 341,074 12.47% 4.7% - - 1.99% - - 42,496 7.71% 7,196 8.87% $478,738,843 20.80% 4,324 -20.51% $895,170,415 -11.66% 485,977,200 -12.18% February 2003 3,908,851 -0.05% 463,685 1.08% 460,661 -1.53% 40.8 1.82% $571.68 3.08% 11,646 7.72% 45,394 -1.83% 303,271 19.04% 4.6% - - 1.88% - - 39,455 -26.58% 6,610 -19.81% $396,306,458 12.61% 5,440 7.01% $1,013,292,058 -15.83% 553,408,000 -16.47% January 2003 3,910,954 - - 458,720 - - 467,841 - - 40.1 - - $554.59 - - 10,811 - - 46,239 - - 254,757 - - 4.5% - - 1.91% - - 53,735 - - 8,243 - - $351,920,504 - - 5,084 - - $1,203,870,339 - - 662,559,200 - - Georgia Department of Labor Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2003 5 MILLIONS THOUSANDS GEORGIA 4.02 2001- 2002 2002- 2003 3.98 3.93 3.89 HOURS 45.2 2001- 2002 2002- 2003 43.7 42.3 40.8 3.84 Nonagricultural Employment 3.80 500 480 460 440 DOLLARS 39.4 37.9 $610 $580 $550 $520 Manufacturing Workweek 420 Retail Employment 400 560 $490 Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $460 $325 530 $310 500 $295 DOLLARS 470 $280 440 $265 Manufacturing Employment Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings 410 $250 A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M Employment 2001: Q2 Q3 Q4 2002: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2003: Jan. Feb. Mar. Nonag 3,950,641 3,932,362 3,904,177 3,917,900 3,907,837 3,900,149 3,897,861 3,910,954 3,908,851 3,912,301 Retail 461,564 458,481 453,450 453,237 456,186 453,215 454,103 458,720 463,685 459,591 Mfg. 504,720 490,195 478,563 471,521 472,759 473,759 469,658 467,841 460,661 455,065 All graphs contain monthly data and are seasonally adjusted, except where noted. Manufacturing Avg. Work Week Weekly Earnings 40.1 $495.04 41.2 525.03 40.3 516.67 41.1 549.23 41.1 545.70 40.7 534.06 40.7 560.83 40.1 554.59 40.8 571.68 40.9 566.86 Deflated Wkly Earnings $278.83 295.35 291.47 308.73 303.45 295.71 309.57 305.22 312.22 307.74 THOUSANDS 6 Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2003 Georgia Department of Labor THOUSANDS THOUSANDS GEORGIA 19. 7 2001- 2002 2002- 2003 16. 2 5.9 2001- 2002 2002- 2003 5.2 PERCENTAGES 12. 7 4.6 9. 2 4.0 5. 7 Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled 2. 2 99.6 80.9 62.1 43.4 24.6 Initial Unemployment Claims 5.9 485.6 PERCENTAGES 3.3 2.7 2.76 2.26 1.76 1.26 0.76 0.26 63 Unemployment Rate Insured Unemployment Rate 392.5 56 THOUSANDS 299.4 50 206.2 43 113.1 37 Continued Unemployment Claims New Motor Vehicle Sales 20.0 30 A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M THOUSANDS 2001: Q2 Q3 Q4 2002: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2003: Jan. Feb. Mar. Job Openings 9,059 8,287 7,624 9,214 9,697 10,246 10,690 10,811 11,646 12,003 Initial Claims 57,570 53,592 61,024 46,376 49,953 44,835 50,556 46,239 45,394 55,465 1 Rate at the end of each quarter, except for monthly rates. Georgia Department of Labor Unemployment Continued Claims Rate 1 257,142 4.5% 277,203 4.2% 348,012 4.3% 309,885 4.6% 342,513 5.2% 321,650 4.8% 303,933 4.6% 254,757 4.5% 303,271 4.6% 341,074 4.7% Insured 1 1.59% 1.73% 2.09% 2.06% 1.94% 1.96% 2.19% 1.91% 1.88% 1.99% New Motor Vehicle Sales 43,837 47,677 47,801 46,658 43,752 47,308 42,452 53,735 39,455 42,496 Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2003 7 HOUSEHOLD UNITS MILLIONS GEORGIA 10,277 9,388 2001- 2002 2002- 2003 8,499 7,609 6,720 5,831 $810 Residential Construction 2 CHARTERS 7,123 6,068 5,014 3,959 2,905 1,850 $1,683 2001- 2002 2002- 2003 New Business Corporations 3 $672 $534 $396 $258 Nonresidential Construction $120 $675 MILLIONS $1,466 $1,250 $1,033 $817 $600 $940 Total State Revenue $550 $823 $425 $706 MILLIONS $300 $589 $175 Deflated Nonresidential Construction $472 Deflated Total State Revenue $50 $355 A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M MILLIONS Construction Residential 2 Non-residential 1 Deflated non-res 1 2001: Q2 8,117 $468,826,000 $393,750,800 Q3 7,639 496,546,000 414,825,400 Q4 7,428 499,825,000 415,367,000 2002: Q1 7,794 441,608,000 364,262,900 Q2 8,400 448,637,000 368,439,900 Q3 7,861 436,092,000 357,062,200 Q4 7,970 492,563,000 399,375,400 2003: Jan. Feb. 8,243 6,610 351,921,000 396,306,000 281,311,800 316,033,500 Mar. 7,196 478,739,000 380,858,400 1 Data rounded 2 Household units 3 Includes limited liability companies 8 Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2003 New Business Corporations 3 4,561 4,846 3,645 5,236 4,785 5,180 5,186 5,084 5,440 4,324 Total State Revenue 1 Deflated Rev. 1 $1,191,590,000 $671,192,300 1,098,360,000 617,866,100 1,089,340,000 614,520,500 1,040,070,000 584,637,400 1,131,250,000 629,054,700 1,004,900,000 556,423,000 1,073,530,000 592,564,900 1,203,870,000 662,559,200 1,013,290,000 553,408,000 895,170,000 485,977,200 Georgia Department of Labor Metro Atlanta Index of Economic Indicators 184.9 Leading indicators Coincident indicators 165.6 146.3 127.1 107.8 1995-96 = 100 88.5 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 Metro Atlanta waits for the economy to turn the corner Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted. *** Economic growth has declined over the last several quarters, adding a layer of uncertainty to the economy. The transition from the old economy in the 90's to the 21st century has been long awaited. After all, economic progress will return, but the question is what type of economy will emerge after we turn the corner? The Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for Metropolitan Atlanta increased from 168.3 in January to 170.4 in March, ending the quarter up 1.2 percent. The commercial construction sector led the LEI with two consecutive months of gains, up 56.38 percent in February and 13.8 percent in March. Nonresidential construction activity remains low in comparison to previous time periods. Sales of new homes (driven by low interest rates) seem to be holding up despite fears of a housing bubble. Permits for new homes increased 13.0 percent in March after declining 9.7 percent in February. Manufacturing hours worked declined slightly in March; however, the weekly average remains close to 40. Initial unemployment claims, a gauge used to measure the condition of the current job market, continue to hover around last year's levels. The Coincident Economic Indicator, which measures current economic conditions, increased from 158.3 in January to 159.9 in March, an increase of 1.0 percent for the quarter. Unemployment in the metro area remained stable (at 4.7%) during the first quarter. Retail employment increased in February (up 1.4 percent) and then declined 1.8 percent in March, averaging 167 thousand jobs in the first quarter. The curvature of the coincident indicator has been elevated due to the transition from SIC to NAICS industry coding and revised benchmarked data (detecting an increase in retail jobs ). The insured unemployment rate edged up slightly to 1.81% in March. The economy seems to be continuing to turn around slowly. No phenomenal gains were recorded during the first quarter. We will have to wait until the second quarter to determine the mind set of consumers and business. Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2003 Georgia Department of Labor 9 Metro Atlanta Mar-2003 Feb-2003 Percent Percent Change Change Feb-2003 Jan-2003 to to Jan-2003 Mar-2003 Feb-2003 Nonagricultural Employment 2,187,205 Wholesale Employment 140,487 Retail Employment 249,062 Accommodation and Food Services Employment 169,515 Manufacturing Employment 166,717 Government Employment 289,299 Construction Employment 121,165 Trans., Warehousing and Utilities Employment 112,311 Financial Activities Employment 144,335 Professional and Business Services Employment 366,895 Hospital Services Employment 57,928 Social Assistance Employment 25,729 Manufacturing Workweek 39.4 Manufacturing Earnings $584.01 Deflated Manufacturing Earnings $317.05 Initial Unemployment Claims 13,304 Continued Unemployment Claims 184,529 Total Unemployment Rate (not seasonally adjusted ) 4.7 Insured Unemployment Rate 1.81% MARTA Passengers 5,422,000 Cobb County Transit Passengers 191,194 Residential Construction (household units) 5,060 Nonresidential Construction (value) $290,530,000 Deflated Nonresidential Construction $231,100,000 Hotel Occupancy 55.2% Average Hotel Room Rates $72.15 Deflated Average Hotel Room Rate $39.17 Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate 5.74% Average 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate 5.10% Average One-Year Adjustable Mortgage Rate 3.43% 2,178,846 140,698 253,791 167,385 167,600 289,869 118,244 112,209 143,728 354,871 57,430 26,068 39.9 $606.73 $331.36 13,338 157,790 4.7 1.77% 5,352,000 187,400 4,476 $255,299,000 $203,600,000 60.1% $75.84 $41.42 5.80% 5.20% 3.50% 2,174,554 141,331 250,216 164,954 167,409 290,475 116,548 113,156 145,545 357,807 56,779 26,470 38.6 $587.95 $323.58 13,175 133,712 4.7 1.74% 5,655,000 194,787 4,957 $163,268,000 $130,500,000 55.0% $74.55 $41.03 5.90% 5.28% 3.61% 0.38% -0.15% -1.86% 1.27% -0.53% -0.20% 2.47% 0.09% 0.42% 3.39% 0.87% -1.30% -1.44% -3.74% -4.32% -0.26% 16.95% 1.31% 2.02% 13.06% 13.80% 13.51% -4.87% -5.44% - 0.20% -0.45% 1.43% 1.47% 0.11% -0.21% 1.46% -0.84% -1.25% -0.82% 1.15% -1.52% 3.55% 3.19% 2.41% 1.24% 18.01% -5.36% -3.79% -9.71% 56.37% 56.02% 1.73% 0.95% - 10 Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2003 Georgia Department of Labor MILLIONS THOUSANDS Metro Atlanta 2.24 2.22 2001-2002 2002-2003 2.19 300 2001- 2002 2002- 2003 250 200 THOUSANDS 2.17 2.14 Nonagricultural Employment 2.12 155 150 145 140 135 Wholesale Employment 130 270 THOUSANDS 150 100 Accommodation and Food Services 50 300 290 280 270 260 Manufacturing employment 250 310 260 300 THOUSANDS 250 290 240 280 230 Retail Employment 270 Government Employment 220 260 A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M Period 2001 :Q2 Q3 Q4 2002 :Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2003 Jan. Feb. Mar. Nonag 2,200,741 2,189,656 2,170,232 2,179,602 2,187,850 2,170,072 2,165,678 2,174,554 2,178,846 2,187,205 Wholesale 142,981 142,935 140,392 142,714 143,538 140,903 140,245 141,331 140,698 140,487 Employment Retail 254,978 253,176 249,327 247,873 249,841 248,473 247,770 250,216 253,791 249,062 Accom. & Food Services 170,963 168,195 170,810 167,837 172,037 167,944 166,992 164,954 167,385 169,515 Manufacturing 185,754 180,238 174,470 171,189 173,126 169,593 169,181 167,409 167,600 166,717 Government 273,275 277,440 278,909 278,665 282,007 286,104 288,326 290,475 289,869 289,299 THOUSANDS Georgia Department of Labor Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2003 11 THOUSANDS THOUSANDS Metro Atlanta 132 2001-2002 2002-2003 126 120 114 108 Construction Employment 102 140 130 120 110 100 Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Employment 90 155 THOUSANDS THOUSANDS 400 2001- 2002 2002- 2003 380 360 340 320 Professional and Business Services Employment 300 80 70 60 50 40 Hospital Services Employment 30 40 151 35 147 30 THOUSANDS 143 25 139 Financial Activities Employment 20 Social Assistance Employment 135 15 A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M Period 2001 :Q2 Q3 Q4 2002 :Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2003 Jan. Feb. Mar. Construction 121,628 120,630 119,221 121,539 118,075 116,408 116,369 116,548 118,244 121,165 Trans, Ware & Utilities 121,291 121,417 118,616 115,924 116,827 113,881 111,873 113,156 112,209 112,311 Employment Financial Activities Professional & Business Services 365,598 363,102 358,915 363,112 365,666 359,489 355,674 357,807 354,871 366,895 365,598 363,102 358,915 363,112 365,666 359,489 355,674 357,807 354,871 366,895 Hospital Services 53,185 54,282 54,823 56,012 55,545 55,074 56,032 56,779 57,430 57,928 Social Assistance 24,274 24,810 25,010 24,971 25,311 25,183 25,330 26,470 26,068 25,729 THOUSANDS 12 Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2003 Georgia Department of Labor HOURS DOLLARS Metro Atlanta 44.8 2001- 2002 2002- 2003 43.0 41.3 39.5 37.8 Manufacturing Workweek 36.0 $660 $630 $600 $570 $540 Manufacturing Earnings $510 $450 THOUSANDS THOUSANDS 25.8 2001-2002 2002-2003 21.0 16.2 11.5 6.7 Initial Unemployment Claims 1.9 277 222 166 111 55 Continued Unemployment Claims 0 6.4 $400 5.4 PERCENTAGES $350 4.5 $300 3.6 $250 2.6 Deflated Manufacturing Earnings Total Unemployment Rate $200 1.7 AM J J A S O N D J FM A M J J A S O N D J F M DOLLARS Period 2001 :Q2 Q3 Q4 2002 :Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2003 Jan. Feb. Mar. Work Week (hrs) 40.0 41.7 39.8 40.1 40.0 39.0 39.5 38.6 39.9 39.4 Manufacturing Weekly Earnings $550.39 587.04 585.21 617.37 607.08 592.97 603.96 587.95 606.73 584.01 Deflated Earnings $310.01 330.23 330.14 347.00 337.58 328.33 333.37 323.58 331.36 317.05 Initial Claims 11,593 12,560 16,544 13,434 14,878 13,060 13,623 13,175 13,338 13,304 Unemployment Continued Claims 107,502 126,694 183,017 171,515 186,676 173,034 163,621 133,712 157,790 184,529 Rate 3.6% 3.8% 4.4% 5.2% 5.9% 5.6% 5.2% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% Georgia Department of Labor Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2003 13 PERCENTAGES MILLIONS Metro Atlanta 2.6 2001- 2002 2002- 2003 2.1 1.6 1.1 0.6 Insured Unemployment Rate 0.0 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 Marta Passengers 4.5 224 MILLIONS HOUSEHOLD UNITS ( THOUSANDS ) 7.5 6.6 5.8 4.9 4.1 3.2 $645 $518 $391 $264 $137 $10 $431 2001-2002 2002- 2003 Residential Construction 3 Nonresidential Construction 197 $346 171 $261 MILLIONS 144 $176 117 Cobb Community Transit Passengers $91 Deflated Nonresidential Construction 91 A M J J A S O N D J F M $6 A M J J A S O N D J F M THOUSANDS Period 2001 :Q2 Q3 Q4 2002 :Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2003 Jan. Feb. Mar. Insured Unemployment Rate 2 1.15% 1.50% 1.91% 2.00% 2.04% 1.81% 1.83% 1.74% 1.77% 1.81% Transit Passengers Marta 1 6,454,000 5,831,900 5,904,600 5,618,800 5,637,400 5,361,200 5,456,900 5,654,800 5,351,600 5,422,500 Cobb Community 163,759 177,181 187,516 175,120 167,733 178,376 193,958 194,787 187,400 191,194 Construction Residential 3 5,555 5,202 5,122 5,181 5,721 5,180 5,442 4,957 4,476 5,060 Nonresidential $335,900,000 338,729,000 317,069,000 296,865,000 283,007,000 290,063,000 285,491,000 163,268,000 255,299,000 290,530,000 Deflated Non-res $282,266,667 283,000,000 263,466,667 244,866,667 232,400,000 237,466,667 231,500,000 130,500,000 203,600,000 231,100,000 1 Data rounded 2 Rate at the end of each quarter, except for monthly rates. 14 Georgia Department of Labor 3 Household units Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2003 PERCENTAGES DOLLARS Metro Atlanta 75 2001- 2002 2002- 2003 69 63 8.00 2001- 2002 2002- 2003 7.40 6.80 PERCENTAGES 56 6.20 50 Hotel Occupancy 44 $89 5.60 Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate 1 5.00 7.60 $84 6.98 PERCENTAGES $80 6.36 $76 $71 Average Hotel Room Rates $67 $51 $49 $46 5.74 5.12 Average 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate 1 4.50 7.61 6.43 5.25 PERCENTAGES $43 4.07 $40 $37 A M Deflated Average Hotel Room Rates J J A S O N D J 2.89 Average One-Year Adjustable Mortgage Rate 1 1.71 F M A M J J A S O N D J F M DOLLARS Period 2001 :Q2 Q3 Q4 2002 :Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2003 Jan. Feb. Mar. Occupancy % 62.7% 58.3% 58.4% 60.2% 57.8% 57.7% 58.2% 55.0% 60.1% 55.2% 1 Rate does not include points Georgia Department of Labor Hotel Data Room Rates $80.33 76.20 76.60 77.65 77.55 75.75 77.10 74.55 75.84 72.15 Deflated Room Rates $45.24 42.87 43.21 43.65 43.13 41.94 42.56 41.03 41.42 39.17 3 0 - Ye a r Fixed 1 7.2% 6.8% 7.2% 7.0% 6.6% 6.2% 6.0% 5.9% 5.8% 5.7% Mortgage Rates 1 5 - Ye a r Fixed 1 O n e - Ye a r Rate Adjustable 1 6.8% 5.7% 6.4% 5.4% 6.7% 5.3% 6.6% 5.0% 6.1% 4.3% 5.6% 4.2% 5.4% 3.6% 5.3% 3.6% 5.2% 3.5% 5.1% 3.4% Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2003 15 Dear Subscriber to Economic Indicators: Several new methods for releasing the Economic Indicators publication have been introduced within the last few years. One of the other methods may better meet your needs. Internet -- The Economic Indicators are found at www.dol.state.ga.us/lmi/publications.htm. This will allow you immediate access to the information, no further action is necessary. 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