Georgia-Atlanta economic indicators. Quarterly report, Vol. 11, no. 1 (First quarter 2005)

Economic Indicators
A Quarterly Report of Georgia and Metro Atlanta Labor Market and Economic Trends

First Quarter 2005

Volume 11, Issue 1

Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner

Georgia-Atlanta Economic Indicators
Quarterly Report First Quarter - 2005
Volume 11, Issue 1

Cover art: Margaret Mitchell House, Atlanta, Georgia by Huey J. Theus
Georgia Economic Indicators, Quarterly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 232-3875.
Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us

Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner

Equal Opportunity Employer/Programs - Auxiliary Aids and Services Available Upon Request to Individuals With Disabilities

Georgia Department of Labor

Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2005

Contents
History ............................................................................................................................................................ 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................. 2 U.S. Consumer Price Index ......................................................................................................................... 3 Georgia Index of Economic Indicators ...................................................................................................... 4 Georgia Data Summary ................................................................................................................................ 5
Employment, Manufacturing Wages and Hours .................................................................................... 6 Nonagricultural, Retail, Manufacturing,Workweek, Earnings and Deflated Earnings
Job Openings, Unemployment Data and Vehicle Sales ........................................................................ 7 Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Initial/ Continued Unemployment Claims, Unemployment Rate, Insured Unemployment Rate and New Motor Vehicle Sales
Construction, New Business and State Revenue ................................................................................... 8 Residential/ Nonresidential Construction, Deflated Nonresidential Construction, New Business Corporations, Total/ Deflated State Revenue
Consumer Price Index for the South or Metro Atlanta ........................................................................... 9 Metro Atlanta Index of Economic Indicators ........................................................................................... 10 Atlanta Data Summary ................................................................................................................................ 11
Employment Data ......................................................................................................................................... 12 Nonagricultural, Wholesale, (Retail Accommodation and Food Services), Manufacturing and Government
Employment Data - Continued ..................................................................................................................... 13 Construction, (Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities), Financial Activities, Professional and Business Services, Hospital Services and Social Assistance
Manufacturing Workweek, Earnings and Unemployment Data .......................................................... 14 Manufacturing -(Workweek, Earnings and Deflated Earnings), Initial/ Continued Unemployment Claims and Unemployment Rates
Unemployment Data, Transit and Construction Data ............................................................................ 15 Insured Unemployment Rate, MARTA Passengers, Cobb Community Transit Passengers, Residential/ Nonresidential Construction and Deflated Nonresidential Construction
Hotel and Mortgage Rates ......................................................................................................................... 16 Hotel Occupancy, Average Hotel Room Rates, Deflated Average Hotel Room Rates, Average 30-Year/ 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates and Average One-Year Adjustable Mortgage Rates

History
Built in 1899 for Cornelius Sheehan, member of a prominent Atlanta family and owner of Greer's Almanac, this house was moved in 1913 and converted into 10 apartments. Margaret Mitchell, author of Gone With the Wind, lived in the ground floor apartment Number 1 from 1925 to 1932 with her husband John Marsh. Mitchell, a former Atlanta Journal reporter, wrote the bulk of her epic novel here between 1926 and 1930, while working at a manual typewriter on a small table in the living-room alcove overlooking Crescent Avenue. In 1932, Mitchell and her husband moved from the declining Crescent Apartments to a nearby apartment on 17th Street at Pershing Point where she finished editing the manuscript for publication. In 1936, the book was published and became an instant success selling more than 180,000 copies in the first month. Film rights were quickly purchased by Selznick International Pictures for a record-breaking price of $50,000. Within six months, more than one million copies had been sold, and Margaret Mitchell was awarded a Pulitzer Prize in 1936. The movie opened in 1939, premiering in Atlanta. Mitchell's novel has been translated into 26 foreign languages and sold approximately 30 million copies worldwide. Revered by many, reviled by some, Gone With the Wind is arguably the most popular and influential book ever written about the American South.

Introduction

G eorgia Economic Indicators, Quarterly Report, is designed to provide data on a number of indicators used
to measure movement of the state's economy in a single publication.
Our publication has changed.
The Georgia and Metropolitan Altanta Economic Indicator series, previously published as two separate monthly publications, are now published as a single quarterly publication. Graphs will continue to display data in monthly increments; whereas companion data tables will display the 3-month average for each series (for 7 quarters) before alternating to a monthly format for the most recent quarter.
All data except those contained in the U.S. and Atlanta Consumer Price Index chart on Pages 3 and 9 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data that have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars.
Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually.
Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning the GeorgiaAtlanta Economic Indicators, Quarterly Report and Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Bill Webb, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 232-3875.
Note: The area formerly known as the Atlanta MSA has been changed to Atlanta-Sandy SpringsMarietta MSA which now includes: Barrow, Bartow, Butts, Carroll, Cherokee, Clayton, Cobb, Coweta, Dawson, Dekalb, Douglas, Fayette, Forsyth, Fulton, Gwinnett, Haralson, Heard, Henry, Jasper, Lamar, Meriwether, Newton, Paulding, Pickens, Pike, Rockdale, Spalding and Walton counties.

Data Sources

Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Manufacturing Workweek and Employment data. -- Georgia Department of Labor
Consumer Price Index -- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, adapted from commentary by Michael Wald New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group MARTA Passengers -- Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit System CCT Passengers -- Cobb Community Transit System Hotel Occupancy and Room Rates -- PKF Consulting, Atlanta, GA (as of July 2003) Mortgage Rates -- HSH Associates, Financial Publishers, Butler, NJ
* Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center

2 Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2005

Georgia Department of Labor

Consumer Price Index

Chart is not seasonally adjusted

YEAR

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

ANN AVG

* CPI RATE

1992

138.1

138.6

139.3

139.5 139.7 140.2 140.5 140.9

141.3

141.9

142.0

141.9

140.3

2.9%

1993

142.6

143.1

143.6

144.0 144.2 144.4 144.4 144.8

145.1

145.7

145.8

145.8

144.5

2.7%

1994

146.2

146.7

147.2

147.4 147.5 148.0 148.4 149.0

149.4

149.5

149.7

149.7

148.2

2.7%

1995

150.3

150.9

151.4

151.9 152.2 152.5 152.5 152.9

153.2

153.7

153.6

153.5

152.4

2.5%

1996

154.4

154.9

155.7

156.3 156.6 156.7 157.0 157.3

157.8

158.3

158.6

158.6

156.9

3.3%

1997

159.1

159.6

160.0

160.2 160.1 160.3 160.5 160.8

161.2

161.6

161.5

161.3

160.5

1.7%

1998

161.6

161.9

162.2

162.5 162.8 163.0 163.2 163.4

163.6

164.0

164.0

163.9

163.0

1.6%

1999

164.3

164.5

165.0

166.2 166.2 166.2 166.7 167.1

167.9

168.2

168.3

168.3

166.6

2.7%

2000

168.7

169.7

171.1

171.2 171.3 172.3 172.6 172.8

173.7

174.0

174.1

174.0

172.1

3.4%

2001

175.1

175.8

176.2

176.9 177.7 178.0 177.5 177.5

178.3

177.7

177.4

176.7

177.1

1.6%

2002

177.1

177.8

178.8

179.8 179.8 179.9 180.1 180.7

181.0

181.3

181.3

180.9

179.9

2.4%

2003

181.7

183.1

184.2

183.8 183.5 183.7 183.9 184.6

185.2

185.0

184.5

184.3

184.0

1.9%

2004

185.2

186.2

187.4

188.0 189.1 189.7 189.4 189.5

189.9

190.9

191.0

190.3

188.9

3.3%

2005

190.7

191.8

193.3

* Rate computed from December to December

Source: U.S. Bureau Of Labor Statistics @www.bls.gov

Inflation Accelerates in March

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.8 percent in March, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. The March level of 193.3 (1982-84=100) was 3.1 percent higher than in March 2004.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U rose 0.6 percent in March, following an increase of 0.4 percent in February. Energy costs advanced sharply for the second consecutive month, up 4.0 percent in March. The index for all items less food and energy, which rose 0.3 percent in February, increased 0.4 percent in March. An upturn in the index for apparel and a larger increase in the index for lodging while away from home accounted for the larger advance in March.
For the first three months of 2005, consumer prices increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 4.3 percent. This compares with an increase of 3.3 percent for all of 2004. The index for energy, which rose 16.6 percent in 2004, advanced at a 21.1 percent SAAR in the first quarter of 2005 and accounted for about three-

eights of the first quarter advance in the overall CPI-U.
Excluding food and energy, the CPIU advanced at a 3.3 percent SAAR in the first quarter, following a 2.2 percent rise in all of 2004. While most categories advanced at a faster rate in the first quarter of 2005 then in all of 2004, about 70 percent of the acceleration was accounted for by a larger increase in the index for shelter. An upturn in the index for apparel and a larger increase in the index for medical care also contributed to the acceleration in the first quarter of 2005.
The index for housing rose 0.5 percent in March. Shelter costs, which rose 0.3 percent in February increased 0.6 percent in March, largely as a result of a 3.9 percent advance in the index for lodging away from home. The index for fuels and utilities rose 0.1 percent, following a 0.8 percent increase in February. The index for household furnishings and operations was unchanged in March.
The transportation index rose 1.9 percent in March, largely as a result of a 7.9 percent increase in the index for gasoline. As of March, the price of

gasoline was 4.2 percent higher than its previous peak level of June 2004. The index for new vehicles turned down in March, declining 0.4 percent, its first decrease in six months. The index for public transportation increased 1.3 percent in March, reflecting increases in the indexes for airline fares and for intracity transportation. Airline fares registered their second consecutive advance, up 2.7 percent in March, but are 1.4 percent lower than a year ago.
The index for apparel increased 0.8 percent in March. Prior to seasonal adjustment, apparel prices rose 4.0 percent, reflecting the continued introduction of springsummer wear.
Medical care costs rose 0.5 percent in March to a level 4.3 percent higher than a year ago. The index for medical care commodities was virtually unchanged in March. The index for medical care services rose 0.6 percent in March.

Georgia Department of Labor

Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2005 3

Georgia Index of Economic Indicators
234
Leading indicators Coincident indicators
208

181

154

128
1990 = 100

101 1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Indicators Move Forward at a Slower Pace

Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted.
*** The Georgia Department of Labor's economic indicators started the year off in a modest fashion and fell short of that anticipated breakout quarter. Instead the indicators moved to a different beat by avoiding any commitment that would provide more insight into the economic spectrum. Over the quarter the Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) inched up 0.1%. There were no distinctive trends, just horizontal movements that canceled each other out at the end of the quarter. The index slipped -0.3% to 190.9 in January before it rebounded to 192.2 up 0.6% in February. Some of the gains were lost in March as the index moved lower to 191.9 down 0.1%. Residential and commercial construction took a hit in January, before they regained ground in

February and March. Initial jobless claims fluctuated in the double digits but remained below last year's levels during the same time period. Sales of new motor vehicles turned around in March reversing two months of back-to-back declines. New business corporations filed with the state in February came close to doubling January's number before declining in March.
The Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI) picked up some steam in January (1.6%, 186.7) before losing those gains in February (-1.8%, 183.2). However, the index did regain some ground in March, ending the quarter at 185.2 up 1.0%. State tax revenue collections surged ahead in March, mainly because of the extra reporting days in the month.

Unemployment remained stable in the 5.0% - 5.2% range. The manufacturing workweek closed in on the 40 hour mark, but did not exceed it. Retail employment increased 0.4% in January then declined the remainder of the quarter.
The leading and coincident indicators came in lower than the revised 1.3% and 2.1% gains posted during the first quarter of 2004. However, it's too early to verify if the event is actually a trend or just a slow patch that the economy is moving through.

4 Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2005

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia
Nonagricultural Employment change from previous month
Retail Employment change from previous month
Manufacturing Employment change from previous month
Manufacturing Workweek (hours) change from previous month
Weekly Manufacturing Earnings change from previous month
Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled change from previous month
Initial Unemployment Claims change from previous month
Continued Unemployment Claims change from previous month
Unemployment rate (not seasonally adjusted) change from previous month
Insured Unemployment Rate change from previous month
New Motor Vehicle Sales change from previous month
Residential Construction ( building permits ) change from previous month
Nonresidential Construction ( dollar value ) change from previous month
New Business Corporations change from previous month
Total State Revenues ( in millions ) change from previous month
Deflated State Revenues ( in millions ) change from previous month
Georgia Department of Labor

Mar 2005 3,903,640 -0.12%
436,467 -0.01%
438,850 -0.59%
38.9 -1.15%
$565.91 0.92%
18,493 -5.85%
36,298 11.02%
217,448 2.86%
5.0% - -
1.34% - -
45,427 10.52%
8,407 4.12%
$405,053,050 1.53%
6,277 -11.50%
$1,396,175,447 80.42%
$722,286,600 79.02%

Feb 2005
3,908,313 -0.07%

Jan 2005
3,910,952 0.46%

436,499 -0.26%

437,640 0.46%

441,451 0.07%

441,162 0.39%

39.4 -1.10%

39.8 3.03%

$560.73 -0.54%

$563.79 4.18%

19,643 11.43%

17,628 -3.09%

32,694 14.57%

28,537 -25.02%

211,396 -5.30%

223,219 16.36%

5.2%

5.0%

- -

- -

1.36% - -

1.31% - -

41,104 -6.17%

43,806 -8.64%

8,075 4.07%

7,759 -19.26%

$398,966,897 15.06%

$346,743,257 -48.18%

7,093 43.96%

4,927 -28.61%

$773,868,706 -38.65%

$1,261,477,980 -10.84%

$403,477,600 -39.01%

$661,499,700 -11.03%

Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2005 5

MILLIONS

THOUSANDS

GEORGIA
3.95

3.91

2003-2004 2004-2005

3.87

3.83

3.79
Nonagricultural Employment
3.75
500

HOURS

42. 2 40. 7 39. 3 37. 8 36. 4 34. 9 $ 645

2003-2004 2004-2005
Manufacturing Workweek

480

$ 615

DOLLARS

460

$ 585

440

$ 555

420
Retail Employment
400
510

$ 525
Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings
$ 495
$ 345

490

$ 330

470

$ 315

DOLLARS

450

$ 300

430

$ 285

Manufacturing Employment

Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings

410

$ 270

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

Employment

2003: Q2 Q3 Q4
2004: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2005: Jan Feb Mar

Nonag
3,837,947 3,846,207 3,848,627 3,877,436 3,891,582 3,898,102 3,895,607 3,910,952 3,908,313 3,903,640

Retail
444,670 445,490 443,968 445,439 446,187 443,833 438,502 437,640 436,499 436,467

Mfg.
453,762 447,182 446,385 447,818 446,366 444,998 442,166 441,162 441,451 438,850

All graphs contain monthly data and are seasonally adjusted, except where noted.

Manufacturing

Avg. Work Week

Weekly Earnings

40.4

$571.95

39.2

549.22

38.9

554.56

39.4

575.53

39.5

588.75

38.9

566.95

38.9

546.90

39.8

563.79

39.4

560.73

38.9

565.91

Deflated Wkly Earnings
$311.41 297.59 300.41 308.96 311.63 299.03 286.73 295.64 292.35 292.76

THOUSANDS

6 Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2005

Georgia Department of Labor

THOUSANDS

THOUSANDS

GEORGIA
25. 0
2003-2004 2004-2005
21. 0

6. 0 2003-2004 2004-2005
5. 4

PERCENTAGES

17. 0

4. 8

13. 0

4. 3

9. 0

3. 7

Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled

5. 0

3. 1

99. 6

3. 26

80. 9

2. 76

62. 1

2. 26

Unemployment Rate

PERCENTAGES

43. 4
24. 6
Initial Unemployment Claims
5. 9
550

1. 76
1. 26
Insured Unemployment Rate
0. 76
60

450

53

THOUSANDS

350

47

250

40

150

Continued Unemployment Claims

50

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

34

New Motor Vehicle Sales

27

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

THOUSANDS

2003: Q2 Q3 Q4
2004: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2005: Jan Feb Mar

Job Openings
11,771 13,958 14,006 14,722 15,209 15,039 17,725 17,628 19,643 18,493

Initial Claims
55,314 53,114 44,851 41,766 37,971 38,071 39,087 28,537 32,694 36,298

1 Rate at the end of each quarter, except for monthly rates. * Unemployment rate prior to seasonal adjustments.

Georgia Department of Labor

Unemployment

Continued
Claims
321,971

Rate 1*
5.5%

307,311

4.6%

275,545

4.0%

268,956

4.4%

265,501

5.1%

244,764

4.6%

229,205

4.7%

223,219

5.0%

211,396

5.2%

217,448

5.0%

Insured 1
2.02% 1.88% 1.73% 1.58% 1.62% 1.54% 1.40% 1.31% 1.36% 1.34%

New Motor Vehicle Sales
43,318 44,085 43,771 39,821 44,847 45,115 43,617 43,806 41,104 45,427

Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2005

7

HOUSEHOLD UNITS

MILLIONS

GEORGIA

12,200 10,900

2003-2004 2004-2005

9,600

8,300
7,000
Residential Construction
5,700

$ 810

$ 672

CHARTERS

8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 $ 1,683 $ 1,466

2003-2004 2004-2005
New Business Corporations

$ 534

$ 1,250

MILLIONS

$ 396

$ 1,033

$ 258

$ 817

Nonresidential Construction

$ 120

$ 600

Total State Revenue

$ 675

$ 940

$ 550

$ 823

$ 425

$ 706

MILLIONS

$ 300

$ 589

$ 175

$ 472

Deflated Nonresidential Construction

Deflated Total State Revenue

$ 50

$ 355

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

MILLIONS

Construction

Residential 2 Non-residential 1 Deflated non-res 1

2003: Q2

6,938

Q3

8,754

Q4

8,593

2004: Q1

8,515

Q2

8,087

Q3

9,067

Q4

9,865

2005: Jan

7,759

Feb

8,075

Mar

8,407

1 Data rounded 2 Household units 3 Includes limited liability companies

$410,004,000 476,499,000 362,503,000 471,027,000 502,442,000 485,288,000 500,660,000 346,743,000 398,967,000 405,053,000

$316,117,200 364,295,900 271,877,300 347,963,800 361,989,900 342,073,300 347,519,700 238,475,200 275,720,100 280,507,600

8 Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2005

New Business Corporations 3
5,749 5,601 6,158 5,463 6,075 6,314 5,936 4,927 7,093 6,277

Total State

Revenue 1 Deflated Rev. 1

$1,053,930,000 1,080,440,000 1,121,440,000 1,092,800,000 1,151,320,000 1,238,600,000 1,255,900,000 1,261,480,000
773,870,000 1,396,180,000

$573,827,600 585,392,800 607,497,300 586,685,800 609,379,000 653,270,000 658,458,600 661,499,700 403,477,600 722,286,600

Georgia Department of Labor

Consumer Price Index for the South

Chart is not seasonally adjusted

ANN * CPI YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC AVG RATE

1992 134.4 134.9 135.5 135.9 136.2 136.7 136.8 137.0 137.3 137.8 138.1 137.9 136.5 2.7%

1993 138.4 139.1 139.7 140.2 140.7 140.8 140.9 141.5 141.6 142.2 142.3 142.2 140.8 3.1%

1994 142.5 142.9 143.6 143.8 144.3 144.7 145.0 145.5 145.8 145.9 146.0 146.1 144.7 2.7%

1995 146.7 147.4 148.0 148.4 148.8 149.1 149.2 149.7 149.8 150.5 150.4 150.3 149.0 2.9%

1996 151.1 151.5 152.4 153.2 153.5 154.0 154.0 154.1 154.5 154.9 155.1 155.1 153.6 3.2%

1997 155.7 156.1 156.5 156.7 156.6 157.0 157.0 157.1 157.5 157.8 157.8 157.3 156.9 1.4%

1998 157.6 157.8 158.2 158.5 158.8 159.1 159.3 159.5 159.5 159.8 159.6 159.6 158.9 1.5%

1999 159.9 160.0 160.6 161.5 161.6 161.7 162.2 162.6 163.2 163.6 163.5 163.6 162.0 2.5%

2000 164.0 164.7 166.4 166.6 166.6 167.4 167.9 168.0 168.5 168.5 168.6 168.4 167.2 2.9%

2001 169.3 170.2 170.6 171.4 171.7 172.2 171.6 171.5 172.2 171.7 171.0 170.3 171.1 1.1%

2002 170.6 171.0 172.1 173.1 173.2 173.5 173.6 173.8 174.2 174.9 174.9 174.6 173.3 2.5%

2003 175.1 176.4 177.5 177.4 176.8 177.2 177.3 177.9 178.3 178.1 177.5 177.5 177.3 1.7%

2004 178.2 179.1 180.1 180.9 182.0 182.9 182.6 182.6 182.8 183.7 183.7 183.3 183.3 3.3%

2005 183.6 184.7 185.9

* Rate computed from December to December

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics @ www.bls.gov

Inflation Heats Up in the South

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) for the South increased 0.6 percent, not seasonally adjusted, to a level of 185.9 (1982-84=100), as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Most of the increase was due to higher costs for transportation, apparel, and housing. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U, South index increased 0.5 percent in March, the same percentage increase recorded in the February index.
Over the past 12 months, prices in the South increased 3.2 percent primarily due to higher costs for housing and transportation. The index for all items less food and energy has risen 2.3 percent since March 2004.

Housing costs rose 0.3 percent in March after increasing 0.5 percent in February, as costs for shelter rose 0.4 percent. Fuel and utilities costs advanced 0.4 percent. Over the year, housing costs increased 3.0 percent reflecting higher costs for shelter and fuel and utilities. Shelter costs moved up 2.9 percent while costs for fuel and utilities advanced 6.8 percent. Household furnishings and operations costs declined 0.2 percent over the year.
The apparel index advanced 4.4 percent in March after recording a 2.7 percent increase in February. While apparel costs normally move up over the first three months of the year, the increase of 4.7 percent over the first three months of 2005 is significantly above the 2.1 percent average increase recorded during the first quarter of the

prior 10 years. Since March 2004, apparel costs have risen 1.3 percent.
Transportation costs rose 1.6 percent in March after recording a 1.4 percent increase in February. The increase was due to 6.8 percent rise in the costs for motor fuel. Over the year, transportation costs have risen 6.2 percent, as motor fuel costs increased 19.8 percent while costs for new and used motor vehicles rose 2.1 percent.
The index for medical care increased 0.3 percent in March after advancing 0.7 percent in February. Costs for medical care commodities were unchanged over the month, while costs for medical care services rose 0.5 percent

Georgia Department of Labor

Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2005 9

Metro Atlanta Index of Economic Indicators
200.0
Leading indicators Coincident indicators
180.0

160.0

140.0

120.0
1995-96 = 100

100.0

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

'06

Momentum Shifts to the Coincident Indicator

Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted.

***

Economic indicators for the newly formed Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), previously known as the Atlanta MSA, displayed tepid advancements during the first reporting period of the year. Both indicators moved forward, although momentum clearly shifted to the Coincident Economic Indicators.
Over the quarter the Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) increased 0.8%, advancing two of the three months. In January the index slipped 0.6% to 185.4 from 186.5 in December 2004, after benchmarking and the revision process. The LEI managed to recover in February, recording an

advance of 1.3% to 187.9. The index then continued forward progress ending the quarter at 188.1.
Home builders continue to ride the housing boom despite speculation of a slowdown and interest rate hikes. After all, Atlanta did dominate the housing market in 2004, authorizing more than 74,000 new privately owned housing units. Nonresidential construction fell below last year's level, but new projects are starting to surface that will help increase activity later in the year. Initial unemployment claims ramped up in February and March; however, they remained below the 12,000 range. Average weekly manufacturing hours

worked moved closer to the 40 hour workweek by late March.
The Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI) procession accumulated 1.8% in gains during the first quarter. The index advanced in January (185.3, 1.3%), February (185.6, 0.1%) and March(186.2,0.3%). Unemployment in the metro area closed out the quarter where it started at 4.9%. Retail employment, which is currently running below last year's level, remains stable in the 239,000 range.
Both indexes started the year off a little slower than the previous year. However, projects in the pipeline should spur more advances in the fall.

10 Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2005

Georgia Department of Labor

Metro Atlanta

Mar-2005

Feb-2005

Jan-2005

Percent Change Feb-2005
to Mar-2005

Percent Change Jan-2005
to Feb-2005

Nonagricultural Employment

2,271,379

Wholesale Employment

154,850

Retail Employment

239,139

Accommodation and Food Services Employment

187,691

Manufacturing Employment

173,502

Government Employment

311,161

Construction Employment

125,521

Trans., Warehousing and Utilities Employment

119,721

Financial Activities Employment

152,771

Professional and Business Services Employment

375,021

Hospital Services Employment

60,024

Social Assistance Employment

26,335

Manufacturing Workweek

39.5

Manufacturing Earnings

$591.90

Deflated Manufacturing Earnings

$306.21

Initial Unemployment Claims

11,352

Continued Unemployment Claims

145,589

Total Unemployment Rate ( not seasonally adjusted )

4.9

Insured Unemployment Rate

1.27%

MARTA Passengers

5,345,000

Cobb County Transit Passengers

247,185

Residential Construction (household units)

5,793

Nonresidential Construction (value)

$184,648,000

Deflated Nonresidential Construction

$127,900,000

Hotel Occupancy

66.7%

Average Hotel Room Rates

$93.79

Deflated Average Hotel Room Rate

$48.52

Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate

5.99%

Average 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate

5.43%

Average One-Year Adjustable Mortgage Rate

4.34%

2,275,904 154,220 239,405 187,699 174,839 310,692 126,284 119,743 152,886 374,095 60,137 26,381 39.0 $565.35 $294.76 9,911 110,323 5.1 1.24%
5,547,000 238,233 5,652
$234,929,000 $162,400,000
66.8% $94.58 $49.31 5.66% 5.07% 4.04%

2,278,224 -0.20%

154,308 0.41%

239,164 -0.11%

188,650 0.00%

174,181 -0.76%

309,324 0.15%

125,457 -0.60%

120,185 -0.02%

152,279 -0.08%

378,339 0.25%

59,807 -0.19%

26,279 -0.17%

37.3 1.14%

$562.01 4.70%

$294.71 3.88%

8,594 14.54%

84,374 31.97%

4.9

-

1.17%

-

5,250,000 -3.64%

248,208 3.76%

5,400 2.50%

$150,358,000 -21.40%

$103,400,000 -21.24%

68.7%

-

$98.96 -0.83%

$51.89 -1.60%

5.77%

-

5.15%

-

4.03%

-

-0.10% -0.06% 0.10% -0.50% 0.38% 0.44% 0.66% -0.37% 0.40% -1.12% 0.55% 0.39% 4.71% 0.59% 0.02% 15.32% 30.75%
5.66% -4.02% 4.67% 56.25% 57.06% -4.43% -4.98% -

Georgia Department of Labor

Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2005

11

MILLIONS

THOUSANDS

Metro Atlanta

2. 34 2. 30

2003-2004 2004-2005

2. 27

2. 23

2. 20
Nonagricultural Employment
2. 16
165

160

155

150

145
Wholesale Employment
140
270

260

THOUSANDS

THOUSANDS

300 2003-2004 2004-2005
250
200
150
100
Accommodation and Food Services
50 220
200
180
160
140
Manufacturing Employment
120 330
320

THOUSANDS

250

310

240

300

230
Retail Employment

220

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

290
Government Employment

280

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

Period
2003 :Q2 Q3 Q4
2004 :Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2005 Jan Feb Mar

Nonag
2,228,243 2,237,391 2,243,160 2,254,691 2,259,203 2,274,035 2,272,344 2,278,224 2,275,904 2,271,379

Wholesale
150,939 150,917 151,065 150,554 151,394 153,823 154,292 154,308 154,220 154,850

Employment

Retail

Accom. & Food Services

248,592 249,995 248,795 247,236 246,380 247,220 243,037 239,164 239,405 239,139

179,178 182,306 184,296 185,485 186,556 186,328 187,087 188,650 187,699 187,691

Manufacturing
179,910 177,806 176,986 177,835 177,857 176,922 174,927 174,181 174,839 173,502

Government
295,752 296,627 297,469 303,507 299,891 305,498 307,727 309,324 310,692 311,161

THOUSANDS

12 Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2005

Georgia Department of Labor

THOUSANDS

THOUSANDS

Metro Atlanta
138 2003-2004 2004-2005
132
126
120
114
Construction Employment
108
140
130
120
110
100
Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Employment
90
163
159

THOUSANDS

THOUSANDS

420 2003-2004 2004-2005
400
380
360
340
Professional and Business Services Employment
320 80
70
60
50
40
Hospital Services Employment
30
40
35

155

30

THOUSANDS

151

25

147
Financial Activities Employment

20
Social Assistance Employment

143

15

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

Period
2003 :Q2 Q3 Q4
2004 :Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2005 Jan Feb Mar

Construction
119,503 120,868 123,082 125,076 124,381 125,193 124,718 125,457 126,284 125,521

Trans, Ware & Utilities
117,158 116,895 116,637 119,201 119,400 119,016 119,182 120,185 119,743 119,721

Employment

Financial Activities

Professional & Business Services

150,901 152,364 150,754 150,501 151,369 152,373 153,238 152,279 152,886 152,771

357,847 359,423 363,675 364,933 368,159 372,896 374,397 378,339 374,095 375,021

Hospital Services
57,073 57,957 58,199 58,818 58,535 59,065 59,333 59,807 60,137 60,024

Social Assistance
26,245 26,618 25,947 26,261 25,751 26,582 26,206 26,279 26,381 26,335

THOUSANDS

Georgia Department of Labor

Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2005

13

HOURS

DOLLARS

Metro Atlanta

41.0 39.0

2003-2004 2004-2005

37.0

35.0

33.0
Manufacturing Workweek
31.0

$ 650
$ 605
$ 560
$ 515
Manufacturing Earnings
$ 470 420

THOUSANDS

THOUSANDS

26. 9 21. 9

2003-2004 2004-2005

16. 9

11. 9

6. 9
Initial Unemployment Claims
1. 9
275

225

175

125

75
Continued Unemployment Claims
25
7. 0

380

340

300

260

220

A

M

Deflated Manufacturing Earnings

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

PERCENTAGES

6. 0

5. 0

4. 0

Unemployment Rate

3. 0

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

DOLLARS

Manufacturing

Period

Avg. Work Week

Weekly Earnings

2003 :Q2 Q3 Q4
2004 :Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2005 Jan Feb Mar

39.2

$623.59

34.3

539.20

34.8

530.90

35.4

559.42

35.9

589.50

35.6

575.64

38.0

583.36

37.3

562.01

39.0

565.35

39.5

591.90

1 Rate at the end of each quarter, except for monthly rates. * Unemployment rate prior to seasonal adjustments.

14 Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2005

Deflated Wkly Earnings
$339.52 292.22 287.60 300.32 312.00 303.61 305.84 294.71 294.76 306.21

Initial Claims
15,564 13,186 11,560 11,525 11,658 11,033 11,042 8,594 9,911 11,352

Unemployment
Continued Claims
178,406 161,618 146,319 126,715 140,060 126,179 120,799 84,374 110,323 145,589

Rate 1*
5.7% 4.8% 4.1% 4.6% 5.2% 4.7% 4.8% 4.9% 5.1% 4.9%

Georgia Department of Labor

PERCENTAGES

MILLIONS

Metro Atlanta
2. 5 2003-2004 2004-2005
2. 1
1. 7
1. 3
0. 9
Insured Unemployment Rate
0. 5
7. 0

HOUSEHOLD UNITS ( THOUSANDS )

$9 2003-2004 2004-2005
$8
$7
$6
$5
Residential Construction
$4
$ 750

6. 5

$ 600

6. 0

$ 450

MILLIONS

5. 5

$ 300

5. 0
MARTA Passengers
4. 5
270

$ 150
Nonresidential Construction
$0
$ 510

250

$ 410

230

$ 310

MILLIONS

210

$ 210

190
Cobb Community Transit Passengers

$ 110
Deflated Nonresidential Construction

170

$ 10

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

THOUSANDS

Period

Insured Unemployment
Rate 2

Transit Passengers

MARTA 1

Cobb Community

2003 :Q2

1.93%

5,570,400

190,276

Q3

1.75%

5,506,000

202,328

Q4

1.54%

5,577,700

217,738

2004 :Q1

1.47%

5,538,100

216,195

Q2

1.53%

5,618,800

212,866

Q3

1.40%

5,215,200

222,526

Q4

1.28%

5,333,100

244,547

2005 Jan

1.17%

5,250,000

248,208

Feb

1.24%

5,547,000

238,233

Mar

1.27%

5,345,100

1 Data rounded 2 Rate at the end of each quarter, except for monthly rates. 3 Household units

247,185

Georgia Department of Labor

Residential 3
4,623 6,149 5,992 5,843 5,370 6,364 7,313 5,400 5,652 5,793

Construction
Nonresidential 1
$250,483,000 290,529,000 186,460,000 303,366,000 299,017,000 311,217,000 299,137,000 150,358,000 234,929,000 184,648,000

Deflated Non-res1
$193,067,000 222,000,000 139,800,000 224,133,000 215,100,000 219,500,000 207,267,000 103,400,000 162,400,000 127,900,000

Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2005 15

PERCENTAGES

DOLLARS

Metro Atlanta
75 2003-2004 2004-2005
69
63
56
50
Hotel Occupancy
44
$ 110
$ 100
$ 90
$ 80
$ 70
Average Hotel Room Rates
$ 60
$ 60

PERCENTAGES

PERCENTAGES

7. 60 7. 00

2003-2004 2004-2005

6. 40

5. 80

5. 20
Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
4. 60
7. 10

6. 48

5. 86

5. 24

4. 62
Average 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
4. 00
7. 41

$ 54

6. 21

PERCENTAGES

$ 48

5. 01

$ 42

3. 81

$ 36

2. 61

Deflated Average Hotel Room Rates

Average One-Year Adjustable Mortgage Rates

$ 30

1. 41

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

DOLLARS

Hotel Data

Period

Occupancy % 3

Room Rates 3

Deflated Room Rates 3

2003 :Q2

55.3%

$72.16

$39.29

Q3

63.4%

92.57

50.16

Q4

61.8%

93.24

50.51

2004 :Q1

65.1%

93.48

50.18

Q2

61.9%

94.90

50.23

Q3

64.7%

95.13

50.17

Q4

64.9%

101.89

53.42

2005 Jan

68.7%

98.96

51.89

Feb

66.8%

94.58

49.31

Mar

66.7%

93.79

48.52

1 Rate does not include points 2 Mortgage rates are not seasonally adjusted
3 Hotel data compiled after July 2003 is not comparable to prior time periods.

16 Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2005

3 0 - Ye a r Fixed 1,2
5.22% 6.20% 5.91% 5.47% 6.35% 5.83% 5.80% 5.77% 5.66% 5.99%

Mortgage Rates

1 5 - Ye a r Fixed 1,2

O n e - Ye a r Rate Adjustable1,2

4.61% 5.47% 5.24% 4.78% 4.77% 5.30% 5.20% 5.15% 5.07% 5.43%

3.18% 3.66% 3.57% 3.07% 4.11% 3.77% 4.10% 4.03% 4.04% 4.34%

Georgia Department of Labor

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