Economic Indicators A Quarterly Report of Georgia and Metro Atlanta Labor Market and Economic Trends First Quarter 2005 Volume 11, Issue 1 Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner Georgia-Atlanta Economic Indicators Quarterly Report First Quarter - 2005 Volume 11, Issue 1 Cover art: Margaret Mitchell House, Atlanta, Georgia by Huey J. Theus Georgia Economic Indicators, Quarterly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 232-3875. Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner Equal Opportunity Employer/Programs - Auxiliary Aids and Services Available Upon Request to Individuals With Disabilities Georgia Department of Labor Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2005 Contents History ............................................................................................................................................................ 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................. 2 U.S. Consumer Price Index ......................................................................................................................... 3 Georgia Index of Economic Indicators ...................................................................................................... 4 Georgia Data Summary ................................................................................................................................ 5 Employment, Manufacturing Wages and Hours .................................................................................... 6 Nonagricultural, Retail, Manufacturing,Workweek, Earnings and Deflated Earnings Job Openings, Unemployment Data and Vehicle Sales ........................................................................ 7 Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Initial/ Continued Unemployment Claims, Unemployment Rate, Insured Unemployment Rate and New Motor Vehicle Sales Construction, New Business and State Revenue ................................................................................... 8 Residential/ Nonresidential Construction, Deflated Nonresidential Construction, New Business Corporations, Total/ Deflated State Revenue Consumer Price Index for the South or Metro Atlanta ........................................................................... 9 Metro Atlanta Index of Economic Indicators ........................................................................................... 10 Atlanta Data Summary ................................................................................................................................ 11 Employment Data ......................................................................................................................................... 12 Nonagricultural, Wholesale, (Retail Accommodation and Food Services), Manufacturing and Government Employment Data - Continued ..................................................................................................................... 13 Construction, (Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities), Financial Activities, Professional and Business Services, Hospital Services and Social Assistance Manufacturing Workweek, Earnings and Unemployment Data .......................................................... 14 Manufacturing -(Workweek, Earnings and Deflated Earnings), Initial/ Continued Unemployment Claims and Unemployment Rates Unemployment Data, Transit and Construction Data ............................................................................ 15 Insured Unemployment Rate, MARTA Passengers, Cobb Community Transit Passengers, Residential/ Nonresidential Construction and Deflated Nonresidential Construction Hotel and Mortgage Rates ......................................................................................................................... 16 Hotel Occupancy, Average Hotel Room Rates, Deflated Average Hotel Room Rates, Average 30-Year/ 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates and Average One-Year Adjustable Mortgage Rates History Built in 1899 for Cornelius Sheehan, member of a prominent Atlanta family and owner of Greer's Almanac, this house was moved in 1913 and converted into 10 apartments. Margaret Mitchell, author of Gone With the Wind, lived in the ground floor apartment Number 1 from 1925 to 1932 with her husband John Marsh. Mitchell, a former Atlanta Journal reporter, wrote the bulk of her epic novel here between 1926 and 1930, while working at a manual typewriter on a small table in the living-room alcove overlooking Crescent Avenue. In 1932, Mitchell and her husband moved from the declining Crescent Apartments to a nearby apartment on 17th Street at Pershing Point where she finished editing the manuscript for publication. In 1936, the book was published and became an instant success selling more than 180,000 copies in the first month. Film rights were quickly purchased by Selznick International Pictures for a record-breaking price of $50,000. Within six months, more than one million copies had been sold, and Margaret Mitchell was awarded a Pulitzer Prize in 1936. The movie opened in 1939, premiering in Atlanta. Mitchell's novel has been translated into 26 foreign languages and sold approximately 30 million copies worldwide. Revered by many, reviled by some, Gone With the Wind is arguably the most popular and influential book ever written about the American South. Introduction G eorgia Economic Indicators, Quarterly Report, is designed to provide data on a number of indicators used to measure movement of the state's economy in a single publication. Our publication has changed. The Georgia and Metropolitan Altanta Economic Indicator series, previously published as two separate monthly publications, are now published as a single quarterly publication. Graphs will continue to display data in monthly increments; whereas companion data tables will display the 3-month average for each series (for 7 quarters) before alternating to a monthly format for the most recent quarter. All data except those contained in the U.S. and Atlanta Consumer Price Index chart on Pages 3 and 9 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data that have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars. Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually. Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning the GeorgiaAtlanta Economic Indicators, Quarterly Report and Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Bill Webb, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 232-3875. Note: The area formerly known as the Atlanta MSA has been changed to Atlanta-Sandy SpringsMarietta MSA which now includes: Barrow, Bartow, Butts, Carroll, Cherokee, Clayton, Cobb, Coweta, Dawson, Dekalb, Douglas, Fayette, Forsyth, Fulton, Gwinnett, Haralson, Heard, Henry, Jasper, Lamar, Meriwether, Newton, Paulding, Pickens, Pike, Rockdale, Spalding and Walton counties. Data Sources Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Manufacturing Workweek and Employment data. -- Georgia Department of Labor Consumer Price Index -- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, adapted from commentary by Michael Wald New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group MARTA Passengers -- Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit System CCT Passengers -- Cobb Community Transit System Hotel Occupancy and Room Rates -- PKF Consulting, Atlanta, GA (as of July 2003) Mortgage Rates -- HSH Associates, Financial Publishers, Butler, NJ * Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center 2 Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2005 Georgia Department of Labor Consumer Price Index Chart is not seasonally adjusted YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC ANN AVG * CPI RATE 1992 138.1 138.6 139.3 139.5 139.7 140.2 140.5 140.9 141.3 141.9 142.0 141.9 140.3 2.9% 1993 142.6 143.1 143.6 144.0 144.2 144.4 144.4 144.8 145.1 145.7 145.8 145.8 144.5 2.7% 1994 146.2 146.7 147.2 147.4 147.5 148.0 148.4 149.0 149.4 149.5 149.7 149.7 148.2 2.7% 1995 150.3 150.9 151.4 151.9 152.2 152.5 152.5 152.9 153.2 153.7 153.6 153.5 152.4 2.5% 1996 154.4 154.9 155.7 156.3 156.6 156.7 157.0 157.3 157.8 158.3 158.6 158.6 156.9 3.3% 1997 159.1 159.6 160.0 160.2 160.1 160.3 160.5 160.8 161.2 161.6 161.5 161.3 160.5 1.7% 1998 161.6 161.9 162.2 162.5 162.8 163.0 163.2 163.4 163.6 164.0 164.0 163.9 163.0 1.6% 1999 164.3 164.5 165.0 166.2 166.2 166.2 166.7 167.1 167.9 168.2 168.3 168.3 166.6 2.7% 2000 168.7 169.7 171.1 171.2 171.3 172.3 172.6 172.8 173.7 174.0 174.1 174.0 172.1 3.4% 2001 175.1 175.8 176.2 176.9 177.7 178.0 177.5 177.5 178.3 177.7 177.4 176.7 177.1 1.6% 2002 177.1 177.8 178.8 179.8 179.8 179.9 180.1 180.7 181.0 181.3 181.3 180.9 179.9 2.4% 2003 181.7 183.1 184.2 183.8 183.5 183.7 183.9 184.6 185.2 185.0 184.5 184.3 184.0 1.9% 2004 185.2 186.2 187.4 188.0 189.1 189.7 189.4 189.5 189.9 190.9 191.0 190.3 188.9 3.3% 2005 190.7 191.8 193.3 * Rate computed from December to December Source: U.S. Bureau Of Labor Statistics @www.bls.gov Inflation Accelerates in March The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.8 percent in March, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. The March level of 193.3 (1982-84=100) was 3.1 percent higher than in March 2004. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U rose 0.6 percent in March, following an increase of 0.4 percent in February. Energy costs advanced sharply for the second consecutive month, up 4.0 percent in March. The index for all items less food and energy, which rose 0.3 percent in February, increased 0.4 percent in March. An upturn in the index for apparel and a larger increase in the index for lodging while away from home accounted for the larger advance in March. For the first three months of 2005, consumer prices increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 4.3 percent. This compares with an increase of 3.3 percent for all of 2004. The index for energy, which rose 16.6 percent in 2004, advanced at a 21.1 percent SAAR in the first quarter of 2005 and accounted for about three- eights of the first quarter advance in the overall CPI-U. Excluding food and energy, the CPIU advanced at a 3.3 percent SAAR in the first quarter, following a 2.2 percent rise in all of 2004. While most categories advanced at a faster rate in the first quarter of 2005 then in all of 2004, about 70 percent of the acceleration was accounted for by a larger increase in the index for shelter. An upturn in the index for apparel and a larger increase in the index for medical care also contributed to the acceleration in the first quarter of 2005. The index for housing rose 0.5 percent in March. Shelter costs, which rose 0.3 percent in February increased 0.6 percent in March, largely as a result of a 3.9 percent advance in the index for lodging away from home. The index for fuels and utilities rose 0.1 percent, following a 0.8 percent increase in February. The index for household furnishings and operations was unchanged in March. The transportation index rose 1.9 percent in March, largely as a result of a 7.9 percent increase in the index for gasoline. As of March, the price of gasoline was 4.2 percent higher than its previous peak level of June 2004. The index for new vehicles turned down in March, declining 0.4 percent, its first decrease in six months. The index for public transportation increased 1.3 percent in March, reflecting increases in the indexes for airline fares and for intracity transportation. Airline fares registered their second consecutive advance, up 2.7 percent in March, but are 1.4 percent lower than a year ago. The index for apparel increased 0.8 percent in March. Prior to seasonal adjustment, apparel prices rose 4.0 percent, reflecting the continued introduction of springsummer wear. Medical care costs rose 0.5 percent in March to a level 4.3 percent higher than a year ago. The index for medical care commodities was virtually unchanged in March. The index for medical care services rose 0.6 percent in March. Georgia Department of Labor Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2005 3 Georgia Index of Economic Indicators 234 Leading indicators Coincident indicators 208 181 154 128 1990 = 100 101 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Indicators Move Forward at a Slower Pace Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted. *** The Georgia Department of Labor's economic indicators started the year off in a modest fashion and fell short of that anticipated breakout quarter. Instead the indicators moved to a different beat by avoiding any commitment that would provide more insight into the economic spectrum. Over the quarter the Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) inched up 0.1%. There were no distinctive trends, just horizontal movements that canceled each other out at the end of the quarter. The index slipped -0.3% to 190.9 in January before it rebounded to 192.2 up 0.6% in February. Some of the gains were lost in March as the index moved lower to 191.9 down 0.1%. Residential and commercial construction took a hit in January, before they regained ground in February and March. Initial jobless claims fluctuated in the double digits but remained below last year's levels during the same time period. Sales of new motor vehicles turned around in March reversing two months of back-to-back declines. New business corporations filed with the state in February came close to doubling January's number before declining in March. The Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI) picked up some steam in January (1.6%, 186.7) before losing those gains in February (-1.8%, 183.2). However, the index did regain some ground in March, ending the quarter at 185.2 up 1.0%. State tax revenue collections surged ahead in March, mainly because of the extra reporting days in the month. Unemployment remained stable in the 5.0% - 5.2% range. The manufacturing workweek closed in on the 40 hour mark, but did not exceed it. Retail employment increased 0.4% in January then declined the remainder of the quarter. The leading and coincident indicators came in lower than the revised 1.3% and 2.1% gains posted during the first quarter of 2004. However, it's too early to verify if the event is actually a trend or just a slow patch that the economy is moving through. 4 Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2005 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Nonagricultural Employment change from previous month Retail Employment change from previous month Manufacturing Employment change from previous month Manufacturing Workweek (hours) change from previous month Weekly Manufacturing Earnings change from previous month Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled change from previous month Initial Unemployment Claims change from previous month Continued Unemployment Claims change from previous month Unemployment rate (not seasonally adjusted) change from previous month Insured Unemployment Rate change from previous month New Motor Vehicle Sales change from previous month Residential Construction ( building permits ) change from previous month Nonresidential Construction ( dollar value ) change from previous month New Business Corporations change from previous month Total State Revenues ( in millions ) change from previous month Deflated State Revenues ( in millions ) change from previous month Georgia Department of Labor Mar 2005 3,903,640 -0.12% 436,467 -0.01% 438,850 -0.59% 38.9 -1.15% $565.91 0.92% 18,493 -5.85% 36,298 11.02% 217,448 2.86% 5.0% - - 1.34% - - 45,427 10.52% 8,407 4.12% $405,053,050 1.53% 6,277 -11.50% $1,396,175,447 80.42% $722,286,600 79.02% Feb 2005 3,908,313 -0.07% Jan 2005 3,910,952 0.46% 436,499 -0.26% 437,640 0.46% 441,451 0.07% 441,162 0.39% 39.4 -1.10% 39.8 3.03% $560.73 -0.54% $563.79 4.18% 19,643 11.43% 17,628 -3.09% 32,694 14.57% 28,537 -25.02% 211,396 -5.30% 223,219 16.36% 5.2% 5.0% - - - - 1.36% - - 1.31% - - 41,104 -6.17% 43,806 -8.64% 8,075 4.07% 7,759 -19.26% $398,966,897 15.06% $346,743,257 -48.18% 7,093 43.96% 4,927 -28.61% $773,868,706 -38.65% $1,261,477,980 -10.84% $403,477,600 -39.01% $661,499,700 -11.03% Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2005 5 MILLIONS THOUSANDS GEORGIA 3.95 3.91 2003-2004 2004-2005 3.87 3.83 3.79 Nonagricultural Employment 3.75 500 HOURS 42. 2 40. 7 39. 3 37. 8 36. 4 34. 9 $ 645 2003-2004 2004-2005 Manufacturing Workweek 480 $ 615 DOLLARS 460 $ 585 440 $ 555 420 Retail Employment 400 510 $ 525 Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $ 495 $ 345 490 $ 330 470 $ 315 DOLLARS 450 $ 300 430 $ 285 Manufacturing Employment Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings 410 $ 270 A M J J A S O N D J F M J F M A M J J A S O N D Employment 2003: Q2 Q3 Q4 2004: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2005: Jan Feb Mar Nonag 3,837,947 3,846,207 3,848,627 3,877,436 3,891,582 3,898,102 3,895,607 3,910,952 3,908,313 3,903,640 Retail 444,670 445,490 443,968 445,439 446,187 443,833 438,502 437,640 436,499 436,467 Mfg. 453,762 447,182 446,385 447,818 446,366 444,998 442,166 441,162 441,451 438,850 All graphs contain monthly data and are seasonally adjusted, except where noted. Manufacturing Avg. Work Week Weekly Earnings 40.4 $571.95 39.2 549.22 38.9 554.56 39.4 575.53 39.5 588.75 38.9 566.95 38.9 546.90 39.8 563.79 39.4 560.73 38.9 565.91 Deflated Wkly Earnings $311.41 297.59 300.41 308.96 311.63 299.03 286.73 295.64 292.35 292.76 THOUSANDS 6 Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2005 Georgia Department of Labor THOUSANDS THOUSANDS GEORGIA 25. 0 2003-2004 2004-2005 21. 0 6. 0 2003-2004 2004-2005 5. 4 PERCENTAGES 17. 0 4. 8 13. 0 4. 3 9. 0 3. 7 Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled 5. 0 3. 1 99. 6 3. 26 80. 9 2. 76 62. 1 2. 26 Unemployment Rate PERCENTAGES 43. 4 24. 6 Initial Unemployment Claims 5. 9 550 1. 76 1. 26 Insured Unemployment Rate 0. 76 60 450 53 THOUSANDS 350 47 250 40 150 Continued Unemployment Claims 50 A M J J A S O N D J F M 34 New Motor Vehicle Sales 27 A M J J A S O N D J F M THOUSANDS 2003: Q2 Q3 Q4 2004: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2005: Jan Feb Mar Job Openings 11,771 13,958 14,006 14,722 15,209 15,039 17,725 17,628 19,643 18,493 Initial Claims 55,314 53,114 44,851 41,766 37,971 38,071 39,087 28,537 32,694 36,298 1 Rate at the end of each quarter, except for monthly rates. * Unemployment rate prior to seasonal adjustments. Georgia Department of Labor Unemployment Continued Claims 321,971 Rate 1* 5.5% 307,311 4.6% 275,545 4.0% 268,956 4.4% 265,501 5.1% 244,764 4.6% 229,205 4.7% 223,219 5.0% 211,396 5.2% 217,448 5.0% Insured 1 2.02% 1.88% 1.73% 1.58% 1.62% 1.54% 1.40% 1.31% 1.36% 1.34% New Motor Vehicle Sales 43,318 44,085 43,771 39,821 44,847 45,115 43,617 43,806 41,104 45,427 Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2005 7 HOUSEHOLD UNITS MILLIONS GEORGIA 12,200 10,900 2003-2004 2004-2005 9,600 8,300 7,000 Residential Construction 5,700 $ 810 $ 672 CHARTERS 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 $ 1,683 $ 1,466 2003-2004 2004-2005 New Business Corporations $ 534 $ 1,250 MILLIONS $ 396 $ 1,033 $ 258 $ 817 Nonresidential Construction $ 120 $ 600 Total State Revenue $ 675 $ 940 $ 550 $ 823 $ 425 $ 706 MILLIONS $ 300 $ 589 $ 175 $ 472 Deflated Nonresidential Construction Deflated Total State Revenue $ 50 $ 355 A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M MILLIONS Construction Residential 2 Non-residential 1 Deflated non-res 1 2003: Q2 6,938 Q3 8,754 Q4 8,593 2004: Q1 8,515 Q2 8,087 Q3 9,067 Q4 9,865 2005: Jan 7,759 Feb 8,075 Mar 8,407 1 Data rounded 2 Household units 3 Includes limited liability companies $410,004,000 476,499,000 362,503,000 471,027,000 502,442,000 485,288,000 500,660,000 346,743,000 398,967,000 405,053,000 $316,117,200 364,295,900 271,877,300 347,963,800 361,989,900 342,073,300 347,519,700 238,475,200 275,720,100 280,507,600 8 Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2005 New Business Corporations 3 5,749 5,601 6,158 5,463 6,075 6,314 5,936 4,927 7,093 6,277 Total State Revenue 1 Deflated Rev. 1 $1,053,930,000 1,080,440,000 1,121,440,000 1,092,800,000 1,151,320,000 1,238,600,000 1,255,900,000 1,261,480,000 773,870,000 1,396,180,000 $573,827,600 585,392,800 607,497,300 586,685,800 609,379,000 653,270,000 658,458,600 661,499,700 403,477,600 722,286,600 Georgia Department of Labor Consumer Price Index for the South Chart is not seasonally adjusted ANN * CPI YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC AVG RATE 1992 134.4 134.9 135.5 135.9 136.2 136.7 136.8 137.0 137.3 137.8 138.1 137.9 136.5 2.7% 1993 138.4 139.1 139.7 140.2 140.7 140.8 140.9 141.5 141.6 142.2 142.3 142.2 140.8 3.1% 1994 142.5 142.9 143.6 143.8 144.3 144.7 145.0 145.5 145.8 145.9 146.0 146.1 144.7 2.7% 1995 146.7 147.4 148.0 148.4 148.8 149.1 149.2 149.7 149.8 150.5 150.4 150.3 149.0 2.9% 1996 151.1 151.5 152.4 153.2 153.5 154.0 154.0 154.1 154.5 154.9 155.1 155.1 153.6 3.2% 1997 155.7 156.1 156.5 156.7 156.6 157.0 157.0 157.1 157.5 157.8 157.8 157.3 156.9 1.4% 1998 157.6 157.8 158.2 158.5 158.8 159.1 159.3 159.5 159.5 159.8 159.6 159.6 158.9 1.5% 1999 159.9 160.0 160.6 161.5 161.6 161.7 162.2 162.6 163.2 163.6 163.5 163.6 162.0 2.5% 2000 164.0 164.7 166.4 166.6 166.6 167.4 167.9 168.0 168.5 168.5 168.6 168.4 167.2 2.9% 2001 169.3 170.2 170.6 171.4 171.7 172.2 171.6 171.5 172.2 171.7 171.0 170.3 171.1 1.1% 2002 170.6 171.0 172.1 173.1 173.2 173.5 173.6 173.8 174.2 174.9 174.9 174.6 173.3 2.5% 2003 175.1 176.4 177.5 177.4 176.8 177.2 177.3 177.9 178.3 178.1 177.5 177.5 177.3 1.7% 2004 178.2 179.1 180.1 180.9 182.0 182.9 182.6 182.6 182.8 183.7 183.7 183.3 183.3 3.3% 2005 183.6 184.7 185.9 * Rate computed from December to December Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics @ www.bls.gov Inflation Heats Up in the South The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) for the South increased 0.6 percent, not seasonally adjusted, to a level of 185.9 (1982-84=100), as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Most of the increase was due to higher costs for transportation, apparel, and housing. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U, South index increased 0.5 percent in March, the same percentage increase recorded in the February index. Over the past 12 months, prices in the South increased 3.2 percent primarily due to higher costs for housing and transportation. The index for all items less food and energy has risen 2.3 percent since March 2004. Housing costs rose 0.3 percent in March after increasing 0.5 percent in February, as costs for shelter rose 0.4 percent. Fuel and utilities costs advanced 0.4 percent. Over the year, housing costs increased 3.0 percent reflecting higher costs for shelter and fuel and utilities. Shelter costs moved up 2.9 percent while costs for fuel and utilities advanced 6.8 percent. Household furnishings and operations costs declined 0.2 percent over the year. The apparel index advanced 4.4 percent in March after recording a 2.7 percent increase in February. While apparel costs normally move up over the first three months of the year, the increase of 4.7 percent over the first three months of 2005 is significantly above the 2.1 percent average increase recorded during the first quarter of the prior 10 years. Since March 2004, apparel costs have risen 1.3 percent. Transportation costs rose 1.6 percent in March after recording a 1.4 percent increase in February. The increase was due to 6.8 percent rise in the costs for motor fuel. Over the year, transportation costs have risen 6.2 percent, as motor fuel costs increased 19.8 percent while costs for new and used motor vehicles rose 2.1 percent. The index for medical care increased 0.3 percent in March after advancing 0.7 percent in February. Costs for medical care commodities were unchanged over the month, while costs for medical care services rose 0.5 percent Georgia Department of Labor Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2005 9 Metro Atlanta Index of Economic Indicators 200.0 Leading indicators Coincident indicators 180.0 160.0 140.0 120.0 1995-96 = 100 100.0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 '06 Momentum Shifts to the Coincident Indicator Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted. *** Economic indicators for the newly formed Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), previously known as the Atlanta MSA, displayed tepid advancements during the first reporting period of the year. Both indicators moved forward, although momentum clearly shifted to the Coincident Economic Indicators. Over the quarter the Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) increased 0.8%, advancing two of the three months. In January the index slipped 0.6% to 185.4 from 186.5 in December 2004, after benchmarking and the revision process. The LEI managed to recover in February, recording an advance of 1.3% to 187.9. The index then continued forward progress ending the quarter at 188.1. Home builders continue to ride the housing boom despite speculation of a slowdown and interest rate hikes. After all, Atlanta did dominate the housing market in 2004, authorizing more than 74,000 new privately owned housing units. Nonresidential construction fell below last year's level, but new projects are starting to surface that will help increase activity later in the year. Initial unemployment claims ramped up in February and March; however, they remained below the 12,000 range. Average weekly manufacturing hours worked moved closer to the 40 hour workweek by late March. The Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI) procession accumulated 1.8% in gains during the first quarter. The index advanced in January (185.3, 1.3%), February (185.6, 0.1%) and March(186.2,0.3%). Unemployment in the metro area closed out the quarter where it started at 4.9%. Retail employment, which is currently running below last year's level, remains stable in the 239,000 range. Both indexes started the year off a little slower than the previous year. However, projects in the pipeline should spur more advances in the fall. 10 Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2005 Georgia Department of Labor Metro Atlanta Mar-2005 Feb-2005 Jan-2005 Percent Change Feb-2005 to Mar-2005 Percent Change Jan-2005 to Feb-2005 Nonagricultural Employment 2,271,379 Wholesale Employment 154,850 Retail Employment 239,139 Accommodation and Food Services Employment 187,691 Manufacturing Employment 173,502 Government Employment 311,161 Construction Employment 125,521 Trans., Warehousing and Utilities Employment 119,721 Financial Activities Employment 152,771 Professional and Business Services Employment 375,021 Hospital Services Employment 60,024 Social Assistance Employment 26,335 Manufacturing Workweek 39.5 Manufacturing Earnings $591.90 Deflated Manufacturing Earnings $306.21 Initial Unemployment Claims 11,352 Continued Unemployment Claims 145,589 Total Unemployment Rate ( not seasonally adjusted ) 4.9 Insured Unemployment Rate 1.27% MARTA Passengers 5,345,000 Cobb County Transit Passengers 247,185 Residential Construction (household units) 5,793 Nonresidential Construction (value) $184,648,000 Deflated Nonresidential Construction $127,900,000 Hotel Occupancy 66.7% Average Hotel Room Rates $93.79 Deflated Average Hotel Room Rate $48.52 Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate 5.99% Average 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate 5.43% Average One-Year Adjustable Mortgage Rate 4.34% 2,275,904 154,220 239,405 187,699 174,839 310,692 126,284 119,743 152,886 374,095 60,137 26,381 39.0 $565.35 $294.76 9,911 110,323 5.1 1.24% 5,547,000 238,233 5,652 $234,929,000 $162,400,000 66.8% $94.58 $49.31 5.66% 5.07% 4.04% 2,278,224 -0.20% 154,308 0.41% 239,164 -0.11% 188,650 0.00% 174,181 -0.76% 309,324 0.15% 125,457 -0.60% 120,185 -0.02% 152,279 -0.08% 378,339 0.25% 59,807 -0.19% 26,279 -0.17% 37.3 1.14% $562.01 4.70% $294.71 3.88% 8,594 14.54% 84,374 31.97% 4.9 - 1.17% - 5,250,000 -3.64% 248,208 3.76% 5,400 2.50% $150,358,000 -21.40% $103,400,000 -21.24% 68.7% - $98.96 -0.83% $51.89 -1.60% 5.77% - 5.15% - 4.03% - -0.10% -0.06% 0.10% -0.50% 0.38% 0.44% 0.66% -0.37% 0.40% -1.12% 0.55% 0.39% 4.71% 0.59% 0.02% 15.32% 30.75% 5.66% -4.02% 4.67% 56.25% 57.06% -4.43% -4.98% - Georgia Department of Labor Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2005 11 MILLIONS THOUSANDS Metro Atlanta 2. 34 2. 30 2003-2004 2004-2005 2. 27 2. 23 2. 20 Nonagricultural Employment 2. 16 165 160 155 150 145 Wholesale Employment 140 270 260 THOUSANDS THOUSANDS 300 2003-2004 2004-2005 250 200 150 100 Accommodation and Food Services 50 220 200 180 160 140 Manufacturing Employment 120 330 320 THOUSANDS 250 310 240 300 230 Retail Employment 220 A M J J A S O N D J F M 290 Government Employment 280 A M J J A S O N D J F M Period 2003 :Q2 Q3 Q4 2004 :Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2005 Jan Feb Mar Nonag 2,228,243 2,237,391 2,243,160 2,254,691 2,259,203 2,274,035 2,272,344 2,278,224 2,275,904 2,271,379 Wholesale 150,939 150,917 151,065 150,554 151,394 153,823 154,292 154,308 154,220 154,850 Employment Retail Accom. & Food Services 248,592 249,995 248,795 247,236 246,380 247,220 243,037 239,164 239,405 239,139 179,178 182,306 184,296 185,485 186,556 186,328 187,087 188,650 187,699 187,691 Manufacturing 179,910 177,806 176,986 177,835 177,857 176,922 174,927 174,181 174,839 173,502 Government 295,752 296,627 297,469 303,507 299,891 305,498 307,727 309,324 310,692 311,161 THOUSANDS 12 Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2005 Georgia Department of Labor THOUSANDS THOUSANDS Metro Atlanta 138 2003-2004 2004-2005 132 126 120 114 Construction Employment 108 140 130 120 110 100 Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Employment 90 163 159 THOUSANDS THOUSANDS 420 2003-2004 2004-2005 400 380 360 340 Professional and Business Services Employment 320 80 70 60 50 40 Hospital Services Employment 30 40 35 155 30 THOUSANDS 151 25 147 Financial Activities Employment 20 Social Assistance Employment 143 15 A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M Period 2003 :Q2 Q3 Q4 2004 :Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2005 Jan Feb Mar Construction 119,503 120,868 123,082 125,076 124,381 125,193 124,718 125,457 126,284 125,521 Trans, Ware & Utilities 117,158 116,895 116,637 119,201 119,400 119,016 119,182 120,185 119,743 119,721 Employment Financial Activities Professional & Business Services 150,901 152,364 150,754 150,501 151,369 152,373 153,238 152,279 152,886 152,771 357,847 359,423 363,675 364,933 368,159 372,896 374,397 378,339 374,095 375,021 Hospital Services 57,073 57,957 58,199 58,818 58,535 59,065 59,333 59,807 60,137 60,024 Social Assistance 26,245 26,618 25,947 26,261 25,751 26,582 26,206 26,279 26,381 26,335 THOUSANDS Georgia Department of Labor Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2005 13 HOURS DOLLARS Metro Atlanta 41.0 39.0 2003-2004 2004-2005 37.0 35.0 33.0 Manufacturing Workweek 31.0 $ 650 $ 605 $ 560 $ 515 Manufacturing Earnings $ 470 420 THOUSANDS THOUSANDS 26. 9 21. 9 2003-2004 2004-2005 16. 9 11. 9 6. 9 Initial Unemployment Claims 1. 9 275 225 175 125 75 Continued Unemployment Claims 25 7. 0 380 340 300 260 220 A M Deflated Manufacturing Earnings J J A S O N D J F M PERCENTAGES 6. 0 5. 0 4. 0 Unemployment Rate 3. 0 A M J J A S O N D J F M DOLLARS Manufacturing Period Avg. Work Week Weekly Earnings 2003 :Q2 Q3 Q4 2004 :Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2005 Jan Feb Mar 39.2 $623.59 34.3 539.20 34.8 530.90 35.4 559.42 35.9 589.50 35.6 575.64 38.0 583.36 37.3 562.01 39.0 565.35 39.5 591.90 1 Rate at the end of each quarter, except for monthly rates. * Unemployment rate prior to seasonal adjustments. 14 Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2005 Deflated Wkly Earnings $339.52 292.22 287.60 300.32 312.00 303.61 305.84 294.71 294.76 306.21 Initial Claims 15,564 13,186 11,560 11,525 11,658 11,033 11,042 8,594 9,911 11,352 Unemployment Continued Claims 178,406 161,618 146,319 126,715 140,060 126,179 120,799 84,374 110,323 145,589 Rate 1* 5.7% 4.8% 4.1% 4.6% 5.2% 4.7% 4.8% 4.9% 5.1% 4.9% Georgia Department of Labor PERCENTAGES MILLIONS Metro Atlanta 2. 5 2003-2004 2004-2005 2. 1 1. 7 1. 3 0. 9 Insured Unemployment Rate 0. 5 7. 0 HOUSEHOLD UNITS ( THOUSANDS ) $9 2003-2004 2004-2005 $8 $7 $6 $5 Residential Construction $4 $ 750 6. 5 $ 600 6. 0 $ 450 MILLIONS 5. 5 $ 300 5. 0 MARTA Passengers 4. 5 270 $ 150 Nonresidential Construction $0 $ 510 250 $ 410 230 $ 310 MILLIONS 210 $ 210 190 Cobb Community Transit Passengers $ 110 Deflated Nonresidential Construction 170 $ 10 A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M THOUSANDS Period Insured Unemployment Rate 2 Transit Passengers MARTA 1 Cobb Community 2003 :Q2 1.93% 5,570,400 190,276 Q3 1.75% 5,506,000 202,328 Q4 1.54% 5,577,700 217,738 2004 :Q1 1.47% 5,538,100 216,195 Q2 1.53% 5,618,800 212,866 Q3 1.40% 5,215,200 222,526 Q4 1.28% 5,333,100 244,547 2005 Jan 1.17% 5,250,000 248,208 Feb 1.24% 5,547,000 238,233 Mar 1.27% 5,345,100 1 Data rounded 2 Rate at the end of each quarter, except for monthly rates. 3 Household units 247,185 Georgia Department of Labor Residential 3 4,623 6,149 5,992 5,843 5,370 6,364 7,313 5,400 5,652 5,793 Construction Nonresidential 1 $250,483,000 290,529,000 186,460,000 303,366,000 299,017,000 311,217,000 299,137,000 150,358,000 234,929,000 184,648,000 Deflated Non-res1 $193,067,000 222,000,000 139,800,000 224,133,000 215,100,000 219,500,000 207,267,000 103,400,000 162,400,000 127,900,000 Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2005 15 PERCENTAGES DOLLARS Metro Atlanta 75 2003-2004 2004-2005 69 63 56 50 Hotel Occupancy 44 $ 110 $ 100 $ 90 $ 80 $ 70 Average Hotel Room Rates $ 60 $ 60 PERCENTAGES PERCENTAGES 7. 60 7. 00 2003-2004 2004-2005 6. 40 5. 80 5. 20 Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates 4. 60 7. 10 6. 48 5. 86 5. 24 4. 62 Average 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates 4. 00 7. 41 $ 54 6. 21 PERCENTAGES $ 48 5. 01 $ 42 3. 81 $ 36 2. 61 Deflated Average Hotel Room Rates Average One-Year Adjustable Mortgage Rates $ 30 1. 41 A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M DOLLARS Hotel Data Period Occupancy % 3 Room Rates 3 Deflated Room Rates 3 2003 :Q2 55.3% $72.16 $39.29 Q3 63.4% 92.57 50.16 Q4 61.8% 93.24 50.51 2004 :Q1 65.1% 93.48 50.18 Q2 61.9% 94.90 50.23 Q3 64.7% 95.13 50.17 Q4 64.9% 101.89 53.42 2005 Jan 68.7% 98.96 51.89 Feb 66.8% 94.58 49.31 Mar 66.7% 93.79 48.52 1 Rate does not include points 2 Mortgage rates are not seasonally adjusted 3 Hotel data compiled after July 2003 is not comparable to prior time periods. 16 Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2005 3 0 - Ye a r Fixed 1,2 5.22% 6.20% 5.91% 5.47% 6.35% 5.83% 5.80% 5.77% 5.66% 5.99% Mortgage Rates 1 5 - Ye a r Fixed 1,2 O n e - Ye a r Rate Adjustable1,2 4.61% 5.47% 5.24% 4.78% 4.77% 5.30% 5.20% 5.15% 5.07% 5.43% 3.18% 3.66% 3.57% 3.07% 4.11% 3.77% 4.10% 4.03% 4.04% 4.34% Georgia Department of Labor Dear Subscriber to Economic Indicators: Several new methods for releasing the Economic Indicators publication have been introduced within the last few years. 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