Georgia-Atlanta economic indicators. Quarterly report, Vol. 10, no. 1 (First quarter 2004)

Economic

Indicators

A Quarterly Report of Georgia and Metro Atlanta Labor Market and Economic Trends

First Quarter 2004

Volume 10, Issue 1

Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner

Georgia-Atlanta Economic Indicators
Quarterly Report First Quarter - 2004
Volume 10, Issue 1

Cover art: Radium Springs, Albany, Georgia by Huey J. Theus
Georgia Economic Indicators, Quarterly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 232-3875.
Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us

Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner

Equal Opportunity Employer/Programs - Auxiliary Aids and Services Available Upon Request to Individuals With Disabilities

Georgia Department of Labor

Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2004

Contents
History ............................................................................................................................................................ 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................. 2 U.S. Consumer Price Index ......................................................................................................................... 3 Georgia Index of Economic Indicators ...................................................................................................... 4 Georgia Data Summary ................................................................................................................................ 5
Employment, Manufacturing Wages and Hours .................................................................................... 6 Nonagricultural, Retail, Manufacturing,Workweek, Earnings and Deflated Earnings
Job Openings, Unemployment Data and Vehicle Sales ........................................................................ 7 Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Initial/ Continued Unemployment Claims, Unemployment Rate, Insured Unemployment Rate and New Motor Vehicle Sales
Construction, New Business and State Revenue ................................................................................... 8 Residential/ Nonresidential Construction, Deflated Nonresidential Construction, New Business Corporations, Total/ Deflated State Revenue
Consumer Price Index for Atlanta .............................................................................................................. 9 Metro Atlanta Index of Economic Indicators ........................................................................................... 10 Atlanta Data Summary ................................................................................................................................ 11
Employment Data ......................................................................................................................................... 12 Nonagricultural, Wholesale, (Retail Accommodation and Food Services), Manufacturing and Government
Emloyment Data - Continued ..................................................................................................................... 13 Construction, (Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities), Financial Activities, Professional and Business Services, Hospital Services and Social Assistance
Manufacturing Workweek, Earnings and Unemployment Data .......................................................... 14 Manufacturing -(Workweek, Earnings and Deflated Earnings), Initial/ Continued Unemployment Claims and Unemployment Rates
Unemployment Data, Transit and Construction Data ............................................................................ 15 Insured Unemployment Rate, Marta Passengers, Cobb Community Transit Passengers, Residential/ Nonresidential Construction and Deflated Nonresidential Construction
Hotel and Mortgage Rates ......................................................................................................................... 16 Hotel Occupancy, Average Hotel Room Rates, Deflated Average Hotel Room Rates, Average 30-Year/ 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates and Average One-Year Adjustable Mortgage Rates

History
Radium Springs, one of the seven Natural Wonders of Georgia, was believed to be a spring of healing by the Creek Indians. The Indians called these waters the Blue Springs because of the rare sapphire-blue waters of the spring. Legend has it that warring tribes were at peace when they came together at the spring, and when Spanish explorers came looking for the so-called Fountain of Youth, Indian guides made sure the conquistadors never saw that special spring. The Creek Indians vanished in the 1830's.
In the 1920s, publishing magnate Barron Collier purchased the land. After chemical analysis showed that the water contained trace amounts of radium, he named the place Radium Springs and built a casino, lodge and country club at the site. The beautiful buildings, lined with windows, still stand today.
For decades, the Radium Springs Casino was the place to go in southwest Georgia for elegance and for fun. Florida-bound tourist traveling the railroad stopped in Albany for a trip to the renowned restaurants and swimming at Radium Springs.

Introduction

G eorgia Economic Indicators, Quarterly Report, is designed to provide data on a number of indicators used
to measure movement of the state's economy in a single publication.
Our publication has changed.
The Georgia and Metropolitan Altanta Economic Indicator series, previously published as two separate monthly publications, are now published as a single quarterly publication. Graphs will continue to display data on monthly increments; whereas, companion data tables will display the 3-month average for each series (for 7 quarters) before alternating to a monthly format for the most recent quarter.
All data except those contained in the U.S. and Atlanta Consumer Price Index chart on Pages 3 and 9 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data that have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars.
Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually.
Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning Georgia Economic Indicators, Quarterly Report and Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Bill Webb, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 232-3875.
** Seasonal factors updated March 2004
Data Sources
Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Manufacturing Workweek and Employment data. -- Georgia Department of Labor
Consumer Price Index -- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, adapted from commentary by Michael Wald New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group MARTA Passengers -- Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit System CCT Passengers -- Cobb Community Transit System Hotel Occupancy and Room Rates -- PKF Consulting, Atlanta, GA (as of July 2003) Mortgage Rates -- HSH Associates, Financial Publishers, Butler, NJ
* Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center

2 Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2004

Georgia Department of Labor

Consumer Price Index

Chart is not seasonally adjusted

YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR

1991

134.6

134.8

135.0 135.2

1992

138.1

138.6

139.3 139.5

1993

142.6

143.1

143.6 144.0

1994

146.2

146.7

147.2 147.4

1995

150.3

150.9

151.4 151.9

1996

154.4

154.9

155.7 156.3

1997

159.1

159.6

160.0 160.2

1998

161.6

161.9

162.2 162.5

1999

164.3

164.5

165.0 166.2

2000

168.7

169.7

171.1 171.2

2001

175.1

175.8

176.2 176.9

2002

177.1

177.8

178.8 179.8

2003

181.7

183.1

184.2 183.8

2004

185.2

186.2

187.4

* Annual rate computed from December to December

MAY
135.6 139.7 144.2 147.5 152.2 156.6 160.1 162.8 166.2 171.3 177.7 179.8 183.5

JUN
136.0 140.2 144.4 148.0 152.5 156.7 160.3 163.0 166.2 172.3 178.0 179.9 183.7

JUL
136.2 140.5 144.4 148.4 152.5 157.0 160.5 163.2 166.7 172.6 177.5 180.1 183.9

AUG
136.6 140.9 144.8 149.0 152.9 157.3 160.8 163.4 167.1 172.8 177.5 180.7 184.6

SEP
137.2 141.3 145.1 149.4 153.2 157.8 161.2 163.6 167.9 173.7 178.3 181.0 185.2

OCT
137.4 141.9 145.7 149.5 153.7 158.3 161.6 164.0 168.2 174.0 177.7 181.3 185.0

NOV
137.8 142.0 145.8 149.7 153.6 158.6 161.5 164.0 168.3 174.1 177.4 181.3 184.5

DEC
137.9 141.9 145.8 149.7 153.5 158.6 161.3 163.9 168.3 174.0 176.7 180.9 184.3

ANN AVG
136.2 140.3 144.5 148.2 152.4 156.9 160.5 163.0 166.6 172.1 177.1 179.9 184.0

* CPI RATE
3.1% 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 3.3% 1.7% 1.6% 2.7% 3.4% 1.6% 2.4% 1.9%

Source: U.S. Bureau Of Labor Statistics @www.bls.gov

Inflation Spikes in March

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent in March, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. The March level of 187.4 (1982-84=100) was 1.7 percent higher than in March 2003.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U increased 0.5 percent in March, following an increase of 0.3 percent in February. Energy costs advanced sharply for the third consecutive month, up 1.9 percent in March. The index for all items less food and energy, which rose 0.2 percent in February, increased 0.4 percent in March. Upturns in the indexes for lodging while away from home and for apparel accounted for the larger advance in March.
For the first three months of 2004, consumer prices increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 5.1 percent. This compares with an increase of 1.9 percent for all of 2003. The index for energy, which rose 6.9 percent in 2003, accelerated in the first quarter of 2004, advancing at

a 38.6 percent SAAR and accounting for about half of the first quarter advance in the overall CPI-U.
Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U advanced at a 2.9 percent SAAR in the first quarter, following a 1.1 percent rise in all of 2003. While many categories advanced at a faster rate in the first quarter of 2004 than in all of 2003, most of the acceleration was accounted for by larger increases in the indexes for shelter and for medical care, and an upturn in the index for apparel.
The index for housing rose 0.3 percent in March. Shelter costs, which rose 0.1 percent in February, increased 0.6 percent in March, largely as a result of a 3.8 percent advance in the index for lodging away from home. The index for fuels and utilities declined 1.1 percent, following a 0.9 percent increase in February.
The transportation index rose 1.1 percent in March. A 5.5 percent increase in the index for gasoline accounted for over 95 percent of the advance in the overall transportation component. As of March, the price of

gasoline was 1.6 percent higher than its previous peak level of March 2003. The index for new vehicles, which rose 0.4 percent in February, turned back down in March, declining 0.1 percent. Airline fares registered their third consecutive advance, up 1.1 percent in March, and are 0.5 percent higher than a year ago.
The index for apparel increased 0.9 percent in March. Prior to seasonal adjustment, apparel prices rose 4.1 percent, reflecting the continued introduction of spring-summer wear.
Medical care costs rose 0.6 percent in March to a level 4.5 percent higher than a year ago. The index for medical care commodities increased 0.2 percent. The index for medical care services rose 0.7 percent in March. Charges for physician's services and for hospital and related services increased 0.9 and 0.5 percent, respectively.

Georgia Department of Labor

Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2004 3

Georgia Index of Economic Indicators
208
Leading indicators Coincident indicators
181

154

128

101
1990 = 100

74 1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Commercial Construction Takes Control of Index

Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted.
*** The Georgia Department of Labor's Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) attempted to move on to stable ground during the first quarter of 2004. However, at the end of the quarter large movements in the construction industry held the index back. The LEI moved slightly lower in January (-0.1%, 180.4) then turned up in February (+1.2%, 182.7), before decreasing in March (-1.1%, 180.6). Again, the most significant movement in Q1 was in construction. In February, the value of nonresidential construction reached $717 million, which moved the indicator forward. The large increase in commercial construction was dominated by contracts for new additions and major alteration projects concentrated in the office and bank

sectors. The downside of the spike in construction moved the indicator lower in March. Double digit increases in residential construction (+26.0%) and new business filings (+18.5) could not prevent the indicator from sliding at the end of the quarter. Sales of new motor vehicles declined 18% in March, as other variables in the index fluctuated in the single digits.
The Coincident Economic Indicator (CEI) posted a strong (+2.0, 174.4) gain in January. The following month the index advanced a modestly (+0.2,174.9) then declined in March (-0.1%, 174.6)
State tax revenue collected contracted 13.8% in February ending the quarter up 6.0 percent (in March). The retail industry eked

out a small gain in employment (+ 0.6%, 440K) in February before declining (-0.5%, 438K) in March. Unemployment continued its downward decent sliding from 4.0 percent at the start of the year to 3.6 percent in March.
Strong employment gains and increased business spending are being reported at the national level. These trends should clear the way for the state's economy to expand throughout the year.
The Leading Index reflects activity that will impact the economy for a duration of three to six months into the future. Coincident indicators measure current conditions.

4 Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2004

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia
Nonagricultural Employment change from previous month
Retail Employment change from previous month
Manufacturing Employment change from previous month
Manufacturing Workweek (hours) change from previous month
Weekly Manufacturing Earnings change from previous month
Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled change from previous month
Initial Unemployment Claims change from previous month
Continued Unemployment Claims change from previous month
Unemployment rate (not seasonally adjusted) change from previous month
Insured Unemployment Rate change from previous month
New Motor Vehicle Sales change from previous month
Residential Construction ( building permits ) change from previous month
Nonresidential Construction ( dollar value ) change from previous month
New Business Corporations change from previous month
Total State Revenues ( in millions ) change from previous month
Deflated State Revenues ( in millions ) change from previous month
Georgia Department of Labor

March 2004
3,872,565 -0.38%

February 2004
3,887,214 -0.32%

January 2004
3,899,756 - -

438,309 -0.57%

440,804 0.68%

437,827 - -

450,299 -0.47%

452,442 -0.15%

453,101 - -

38.3

40.1

39.6

-4.38%

1.24%

- -

$575.86 -1.29%

$583.36 4.60%

$557.72 - -

15,823 11.87%

14,144 -0.39%

14,200 - -

44,050 6.63%

41,309 3.43%

39,939 - -

308,084 19.05%

258,778 7.82%

240,007 - -

3.6%

3.8%

4.1%

- -

- -

- -

1.58% - -

1.67% - -

1.63% - -

34,543 -18.06%

42,157 -1.42%

42,763 - -

9,344 26.09%

7,411 -15.70%

8,791 - -

$376,320,733 -47.58%

$717,959,677 125.21%

$318,801,707 - -

6,253 18.51%

5,277 8.62%

4,858 - -

$1,085,971,753 6.72%

$1,017,574,957 -13.39%

$1,174,861,810 - -

579,493,100 6.04%

546,493,000 -13.85%

634,373,700 - -

Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2004 5

MILLIONS

THOUSANDS

GEORGIA
3. 95 2002-2003 2003-2004
3. 91
3. 87
3. 83
3. 79
Nonagricultural Employment
3. 75
500
480
460
440
420
Retail Employment
400

DOLLARS

HOURS

44. 2 42. 7 41. 3 39. 8 38. 4 36. 9 $595 $575 $555 $535 $515 $495

2002-2003 2003-2004
Manufacturing Workweek
Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings

510

$ 340

490

$ 325

470

$ 310

DOLLARS

450

$ 295

430

$ 280

Manufacturing Employment

Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings

410

$ 265

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

Employment

2002: Q2 Q3 Q4
2003: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2004: Jan Feb Mar

Nonag
3,879,475 3,861,691 3,863,809 3,866,128 3,846,268 3,861,261 3,867,909 3,899,756 3,887,214 3,872,565

Retail
452,792 449,569 447,650 445,182 444,670 445,490 438,924 437,827 440,804 438,309

Mfg.
468,917 466,223 460,456 461,090 453,198 445,885 446,520 453,101 452,442 450,299

All graphs contain monthly data and are seasonally adjusted, except where noted.

Manufacturing

Avg. Work Week

Weekly Earnings

41.2

$545.41

40.6

536.72

40.6

557.99

40.6

565.18

40.4

571.81

39.2

548.95

38.9

554.68

39.6

557.72

40.1

583.36

38.3

575.86

Deflated Wkly Earnings
$303.29 297.17 308.00 308.83 311.33 297.45 300.48 301.15 313.30 307.29

THOUSANDS

6 Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2004

Georgia Department of Labor

THOUSANDS

THOUSANDS

GEORGIA
19. 7 2002-2003 2003-2004
16. 2
12. 7
9. 2
5. 7
Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled
2. 2
99. 6
80. 9
62. 1
43. 4
24. 6
Initial Unemployment Claims
5.9
550

PERCENTAGES

PERCENTAGES

6. 2 5. 6 5. 1 4. 5 4. 0 3. 4 3.26 2.76 2.26 1.76 1.26 0.76 60

2002-2003 2003-2004
Unemployment Rate
Insured Unemployment Rate

450

53

THOUSANDS

350

47

250

40

150
Continued Unemployment Claims

50

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

34
New Motor Vehicle Sales

27 A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

2002: Q2 Q3 Q4
2003: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2004: Jan Feb Mar

Job Openings
9,803 10,116 10,974 11,306 11,771 13,958 14,006 14,200 14,144 15,823

Initial Claims
47,276 45,025 50,810 50,806 55,314 53,114 44,851 39,939 41,309 44,050

1 Rate at the end of each quarter, except for monthly rates.

Unemployment

Continued Claims
332,488

Rate 1
5.7%

314,548

5.4%

299,306

5.1%

315,345

4.7%

321,971

5.4%

307,311

4.6%

275,545

4.0%

240,007

4.1%

258,778

3.8%

308,084

3.6%

Insured 1
1.93% 1.94% 2.14% 1.98% 2.02% 1.88% 1.73% 1.63% 1.67% 1.58%

New Motor Vehicle Sales
46,318 45,782 42,889 42,671 43,318 44,085 43,771 42,763 42,157 34,543

THOUSANDS

Georgia Department of Labor

Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2004

7

HOUSEHOLD UNITS

MILLIONS

GEORGIA

11, 000 9, 900

2002-2003 2003-2004

8, 800

8, 000 7, 000 6, 000

2002-2003 2003-2004

CHARTERS

7, 700

5, 000

6, 600
Residential Construction
5, 500 $ 810
$ 672
$ 534
$ 396
$ 258
Nonresidential Construction
$ 120
$ 675

MILLIONS

4, 000 3, 000 $ 1,683 $ 1,466 $ 1,250 $ 1,033 $ 817 $ 600 $ 940

New Business Corporations Total State Revenue

$ 550

$ 823

MILLIONS

$ 425

$ 706

$ 300

$ 589

$ 175
$ 50 A

Deflated Nonresidential Construction

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

$ 472
Deflated Total State Revenue

$ 355

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

MILLIONS

Construction Residential 2 Non-residential 1 Deflated non-res 1

2002: Q2

8,403

Q3

7,815

Q4

7,982

2003: Q1

7,343

Q2

6,938

Q3

8,754

Q4

8,593

2004: Jan

8,791

Feb

7,411

Mar

9,344

1 Data rounded

2 Household units 3 Includes limited liability companies

$459,955,000 426,161,000 481,984,000 415,385,000 410,004,000 476,499,000 362,503,000 318,802,000 717,960,000 376,321,000

$371,330,700 343,585,900 382,932,200 323,844,900 318,408,500 367,196,800 273,518,400 237,027,500 531,822,200 278,138,200

8 Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2004

New Business Corporations 3
4,770 5,274 5,158 4,912 5,749 5,601 6,158 4,858 5,277 6,253

Total State Revenue 1 Deflated Rev. 1

$1,079,300,000 1,037,890,000 1,076,190,000 1,044,060,000 1,053,930,000 1,080,440,000 1,121,440,000 1,174,860,000 1,017,570,000 1,085,970,000

$600,166,800 574,689,900 594,033,100 570,524,600 573,827,600 585,392,800 607,497,300 634,373,700 546,493,000 579,493,100

Georgia Department of Labor

Consumer Price Index for the South

Chart is not seasonally adjusted

YEAR JAN 1991 131.4 1992 134.4 1993 138.4 1994 142.5 1995 146.7 1996 151.1 1997 155.7 1998 157.6 1999 159.9 2000 164.0 2001 169.3 2002 170.6 2003 175.1 2004 178.2

FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
131.7 131.9 132.1 132.5 132.8 133.0 133.3 133.8 134.1 134.4 134.3 134.9 135.5 135.9 136.2 136.7 136.8 137.0 137.3 137.8 138.1 137.9 139.1 139.7 140.2 140.7 140.8 140.9 141.5 141.6 142.2 142.3 142.2 142.9 143.6 143.8 144.3 144.7 145.0 145.5 145.8 145.9 146.0 146.1 147.4 148.0 148.4 148.8 149.1 149.2 149.7 149.8 150.5 150.4 150.3 151.5 152.4 153.2 153.5 154.0 154.0 154.1 154.5 154.9 155.1 155.1 156.1 156.5 156.7 156.6 157.0 157.0 157.1 157.5 157.8 157.8 157.3 157.8 158.2 158.5 158.8 159.1 159.3 159.5 159.5 159.8 159.6 159.6 160.0 160.6 161.5 161.6 161.7 162.2 162.6 163.2 163.6 163.5 163.6 164.7 166.4 166.6 166.6 167.4 167.9 168.0 168.5 168.5 168.6 168.4 170.2 170.6 171.4 171.7 172.2 171.6 171.5 172.2 171.7 171.0 170.3 171.0 172.1 173.1 173.2 173.5 173.6 173.8 174.2 174.9 174.9 174.6 176.4 177.5 177.4 176.8 177.2 177.3 177.9 178.3 178.1 177.5 177.5 179.1 180.1

ANN AVG
132.9 136.5 140.8 144.7 149.0 153.6 156.9 158.9 162.0 167.2 171.1 173.3 177.3

* CPI RATE
2.6% 2.7% 3.1% 2.7% 2.9% 3.2% 1.4% 1.5% 2.5% 2.9% 1.1% 2.5% 1.7%

* Annual rate computed from December to December

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics @ www.bls.gov

The CPI for the South Moves North

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) for the South increased 0.6 in March, not seasonally adjusted, to a level of 180.1 (1982-84=100), as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. Higher costs for apparel, housing and transportation accounted for the increase in prices over the month. Energy costs advanced 1.6 percent in March. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-South increased 0.5 percent over the month.
Over the past 12 months, prices in the South have risen 1.5 percent due to higher costs for housing and medical care. Energy costs advanced 2.3 percent over the year.

Excluding food and energy costs, the index for all other items rose 1.0 percent since last March, slightly higher than the 12-month increase recorded in March 2003.
Housing costs advanced 0.3 percent in March due to higher costs for shelter, which rose 0.5 percent over the month. Household fuels and utilities costs declined 0.6 percent in March after advancing 0.3 percent in February. Household furnishings and operations costs fell 0.2 percent in March.
Apparel costs increased 5.5 percent over the month after rising a modest 0.3 percent in February 2004. This one month increase was the largest rise recorded since the index became monthly in 1987. Over the past year, apparel prices declined 2.4 percent. This index has not recorded

a twelve month increase in prices since October 2001.
Transportation costs rose 0.9 percent in March due to rising gasoline prices (4.3 percent). Costs for new vehicles fell 0.4 percent over the month. Since March 2003, the transportation index dropped 0.4 percent. Gasoline costs have risen 2.5 percent over the past year.
Medical care costs rose 0.3 percent in March. Over the month, costs of medical care commodities and services have risen 0.3 percent, each. Over the past year, the medical care index has gained 3.9 percent. Medical care commodities' costs increased a more modest 2.6 percent for the same time period.

Georgia Department of Labor

Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2004 9

Metro Atlanta Index of Economic Indicators
184.9
Leading indicators Coincident indicators
165.6

146.3

127.1

107.8
1995-96 = 100

88.5

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

Atlanta's Coincident Indicator Picks up Pace

Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted.

***

Atlanta's Economic Indicators gained momentum during the first quarter. The Leading Economic Indicator posted two months of consecutive gains, before declining. The Coincident Economic Indicator had gains troughout the entire quarter.
The Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) started the year off on the right foot advancing in January (+0.2%, 173.0) and February (+1.8%,176.3), before declining in March (-1.1%, 174.2). A surge in nonresidential construction, that originated in Fulton county, pushed the index forward in February only to take it back in March. The value of commercial construction jumped to $572 million in February, which catapulted the LEI forward. However, the construction sector spiraled back down to $156

million in March, placing downward pressure on the index to end the quarter in negative territory.
The residential construction sector, which is expected to decline as interest rates increase held it's ground during the quarter. Permits for construction declined in February (-14.3%) only to be reversed in March (+22.1%). Initial jobless claims increased during the first quarter; however, claim levels remain in-line with last fourth quarters numbers. The manufacturing workweek remained in the 38-40 hour range throughout the reporting period.
The Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI) continued to climb during the first quarter, even after the 2003 benchmarking, which

lowered retail employment. Unemployment closed out the quarter at 3.8 percent in March, riding two-tenths above the state's rate. Retail employment increased from 238 thousand (in January) to 241 thousand (in February) before declining to 240 thousand in March. Employment in the retail sector should average around 240,000 jobs during the first quarter.
As the recovery becomes more broad based, jobs will be created in industries other than the service sector. Commercial construction may be showing signs of a recovery. The next two quarters will determine if the confidence of executives are strong enough to pull their projects off the shelf.

10 Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2004

Georgia Department of Labor

Metro Atlanta

Mar-2004

Feb-2004

Jan-2004

Percent Change Feb-2004
to Mar-2004

Percent Change Jan-2004
to Feb-2004

Nonagricultural Employment

2,167,107

Wholesale Employment

136,094

Retail Employment

240,353

Accommodation and Food Services Employment

183,549

Manufacturing Employment

170,806

Government Employment

291,091

Construction Employment

120,650

Trans., Warehousing and Utilities Employment

115,663

Financial Activities Employment

147,749

Professional and Business Services Employment

339,819

Hospital Services Employment

58,125

Social Assistance Employment

26,033

Manufacturing Workweek

38.7

Manufacturing Earnings

$573.93

Deflated Manufacturing Earnings

$306.26

Initial Unemployment Claims

12,328

Continued Unemployment Claims

152,872

Total Unemployment Rate ( not seasonally adjusted )

3.8

Insured Unemployment Rate

1.47%

MARTA Passengers

5,664,000

Cobb County Transit Passengers

224,175

Residential Construction (household units)

6,318

Nonresidential Construction (value)

$156,801,000

Deflated Nonresidential Construction

$115,900,000

Hotel Occupancy

66.8%

Average Hotel Room Rates

$98.22

Deflated Average Hotel Room Rate

$52.41

Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate

5.47%

Average 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate

4.78%

Average One-Year Adjustable Mortgage Rate

3.07%

2,176,851 136,185 241,445 184,207 171,117 292,067 120,197 116,080 148,055 342,034 57,525 26,678 40.1 $587.30 $315.41 12,114 133,825 3.9 1.55%
5,433,000 204,590 5,173
$572,441,000 $424,000,000
62.9% $90.27 $48.48 5.69% 5.02% 3.36%

2,186,737 137,207 238,763 186,156 169,731 292,390 121,311 105,336 148,256 347,313 57,383 27,589 38.1 $611.60 $330.24 10,134 93,449 4.2 1.52%
5,518,000 219,820 6,037
$180,855,000 $134,500,000
65.5% $91.95 $49.65 5.78% 5.07% 3.40%

-0.45% -0.45%

-0.07% -0.75%

-0.45% 1.12%

-0.36% -1.05%

-0.18% 0.82%

-0.33% -0.11%

0.38% -0.92%

-0.36% 10.20%

-0.21% -0.14%

-0.65% -1.52%

1.04% 0.25%

-2.42% -3.30%

-3.71% 5.45%

-2.28% -3.97%

-2.90% -4.49%

1.77% 19.53%

14.23% 43.21%

-

-

-

-

4.25% -1.54%

9.57% -6.93%

22.14% -14.32%

-72.61% 216.52%

-72.67% 215.24%

-

-

8.81% -1.83%

8.11% -2.36%

-

-

-

-

-

-

Georgia Department of Labor

Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2004 11

MILLIONS

THOUSANDS

Metro Atlanta

2. 24 2. 20

2002-2003 2003-2004

2. 17

2. 13

2. 10
Nonagricultural Employment
2. 06
150

145

140

135

130
Wholesale Employment
125
270

THOUSANDS

THOUSANDS

300 2002-2003 2003-2004
250
200
150
100
Accommodation and Food Services
50
220

200

180

160

140

Manufacturing Employment

120 310

260

300

THOUSANDS

250

290

240

230
Retail Employment

220

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

280

270
Government Employment

260

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

Period
2002: Q2 Q3 Q4
2003: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2004: Jan Feb Mar

Nonag
2,167,542 2,166,405 2,171,614 2,160,724 2,150,461 2,162,940 2,160,913 2,186,737 2,176,851 2,167,107

Wholesale
142,207 139,903 140,712 137,432 136,427 136,355 136,152 137,207 136,185 136,094

Employment

Retail

Accom. & Food Services

247,377 246,147 245,580 240,992 241,539 242,916 237,683 238,763 241,445 240,353

169,236 168,635 170,700 174,820 175,425 177,603 181,055 186,156 184,207 183,549

Manufacturing
170,387 168,863 167,589 172,209 171,461 169,390 168,438 169,731 171,117 170,806

Government
281,277 285,049 286,414 289,447 285,599 287,179 289,100 292,390 292,067 291,091

THOUSANDS

12 Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2004

Georgia Department of Labor

THOUSANDS

THOUSANDS

Metro Atlanta
132 2002-2003 2003-2004
126
120
114
108
Construction Employment
102
140
130
120
110
100
Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Employment
90
155

THOUSANDS

THOUSANDS

400 2002-2003 2003-2004
380
360
340
320
Professional and Business Services Employment
300
80
70
60
50
40
Hospital Services Employment
30
40

151

35

147

30

THOUSANDS

143

25

139
Financial Activities Employment

20
Social Assistance Employment

135

15

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

Period
2002: Q2 Q3 Q4
2003: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2004: Jan Feb Mar

Construction
115,621 114,541 114,879 115,209 113,535 115,036 118,626 121,311 120,197 120,650

Trans, Ware & Utilities
117,229 115,772 116,245 117,127 113,908 113,878 114,204 105,336 116,080 115,663

Employment

Financial Activities

Professional & Business Services

145,115 144,937 148,190 147,888 148,043 149,176 147,114 148,256 148,055 147,749

358,851 360,484 360,186 338,255 334,512 338,906 340,349 347,313 342,034 339,819

Hospital Services
55,545 55,074 56,032 56,879 56,542 57,389 57,867 57,383 57,525 58,125

Social Assistance
25,311 25,183 25,330 25,887 25,616 26,035 26,076 27,589 26,678 26,033

THOUSANDS

Georgia Department of Labor

Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2004 13

HOURS

DOLLARS

Metro Atlanta

43. 0 41. 0

2002-2003 2003-2004

26. 9 21. 9

2002-2003 2003-2004

THOUSANDS

39. 0

16. 9

37. 0
35. 0
Manufacturing Workweek
33. 0 $ 675
$ 635
$ 595

11. 9
6. 9
Initial Unemployment Claims
1. 9 275
225
175

THOUSANDS

$ 555
$ 515
Manufacturing Earnings
$ 475 475

125
75
Continued Unemployment Claims
25
7.0

420

365

310

255
Deflated Manufacturing Earnings

200 A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

PERCENTAGES

6.0

5.0

4.0

Unemployment Rate

3.0

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

DOLLARS

Period
2002: Q2 Q3 Q4
2003: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2004: Jan Feb Mar

Work Week (hrs)
40.0 39.0 39.5 40.8 40.3 38.9 39.2 38.1 40.1 38.7

Manufacturing
Weekly Earnings
$607.21 593.49 604.99 568.10 568.80 543.54 560.37 611.60 587.30 573.93

Deflated Earnings
$337.65 328.62 333.94 310.45 309.70 294.52 303.56 330.24 315.41 306.26

14 Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2004

Initial Claims
14,878 13,060 13,623 13,272 15,564 13,186 11,560 10,134 12,114 12,328

Unemployment
Continued Claims
186,676 173,034 163,621 158,677 178,406 161,618 146,319 93,449 133,825 152,872

Rate
5.9% 5.6% 5.2% 4.7% 5.5% 4.8% 4.0% 4.2% 3.9% 3.8%

Georgia Department of Labor

PERCENTAGES

MILLIONS

Metro Atlanta
2.9 2002-2003 2003-2004
2.5
2.1
1.7
1.3
Insured Unemployment Rate
0.9 7. 0
6. 5
6. 0
5. 5
5. 0
MARTA Passengers
4. 5
250
225

MILLIONS

HOUSEHOLD UNITS ( THOUSANDS )

7. 5 6. 6 5. 8 4. 9 4. 1 3. 2 $ 750 $ 600 $ 450 $ 300 $ 150
$0 $ 510 $ 410

2002-2003 2003-2004
Residential Construction
Nonresidential Construction

200

$ 310

MILLIONS

175

$ 210

150
Cobb Community Transit Passengers

$ 110
Deflated Nonresidential Construction

125

$ 10

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

THOUSANDS

Period

Insured Unemployment
Rate 2

Transit Passengers

MARTA 1

Cobb Community

2002: Q2

1.96%

5,637,400

167,733

Q3

1.83%

5,361,200

178,376

Q4

1.84%

5,456,900

193,958

2003: Q1

1.81%

5,476,300

191,127

Q2

1.93%

5,570,400

190,276

Q3

1.75%

5,506,000

202,328

Q4

1.54%

5,577,700

217,738

2004: Jan

1.52%

5,517,700

219,820

Feb

1.55%

5,432,600

204,590

Mar

1.47%

5,664,000

1 Data rounded 2 Rate at the end of each quarter, except for monthly rates.

3 Household units

224,175

Georgia Department of Labor

Residential 3
5,721 5,180 5,442 4,831 4,623 6,149 5,992 6,037 5,173 6,318

Construction
Nonresidential 1
$283,007,000 290,063,000 285,491,000 236,366,000 250,483,000 290,529,000 186,460,000 180,855,000 572,441,000 156,801,000

Deflated Non-res
$228,500,000 233,766,667 226,833,333 184,166,667 194,866,667 223,733,333 140,700,000 134,500,000 424,000,000 115,900,000

Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2004 15

PERCENTAGES

DOLLARS

Metro Atlanta
75 2002-2003 2003-2004
69
63
56
50
Hotel Occupancy
44
$110
$100
$90
$80
$70
Average Hotel Room Rates
$60
$ 60

PERCENTAGES

PERCENTAGES

7.60 7.00 6.40

2002-2003 2003-2004

5.80
5.20
Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
4.60 7. 10

6. 48

5. 86

5. 24

4. 62
Average 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
4. 00
7. 41

$ 54

6. 21

PERCENTAGES

$ 48

5. 01

$ 42

3. 81

$ 36
Deflated Average Hotel Room Rates

2. 61
Average One-Year Adjustable Mortgage Rates

$ 30

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

1. 41

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

DOLLARS

Hotel Data

Period

Occupancy% 3

Room Rates 3

Deflated Room Rates

2002: Q2

57.8%

$77.55

$43.13

Q3

57.7%

75.75

41.94

Q4

58.2%

77.10

42.56

2003: Q1

56.8%

74.18

40.54

Q2

55.3%

72.16

39.29

Q3

63.4%

92.57

50.16

Q4

61.8%

93.24

50.51

2004: Jan

65.5%

91.95

49.65

Feb

62.9%

90.27

48.48

Mar

66.8%

98.22

52.41

1 Rate does not include points 2 Mortgage rates are not seasonally adjusted 3 Hotel data compiled after July 2003 is not comparable to prior time periods.

16 Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2004

3 0 - Ye a r Fixed 1
6.60% 6.16% 6.00% 5.74% 5.22% 6.20% 5.91% 5.78% 5.69% 5.47%

Mortgage Rates

1 5 - Ye a r Fixed 1,2
6.11% 5.58% 5.40% 5.10% 4.61% 5.47% 5.24% 5.07% 5.02% 4.78%

O n e - Ye a r Rate Adjustable1,2
4.29% 4.20% 3.63% 3.43% 3.18% 3.66% 3.57% 3.40% 3.36% 3.07%

Georgia Department of Labor

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