Economic Indicators A Quarterly Report of Georgia and Metro Atlanta Labor Market and Economic Trends First Quarter 2004 Volume 10, Issue 1 Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner Georgia-Atlanta Economic Indicators Quarterly Report First Quarter - 2004 Volume 10, Issue 1 Cover art: Radium Springs, Albany, Georgia by Huey J. Theus Georgia Economic Indicators, Quarterly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 232-3875. Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner Equal Opportunity Employer/Programs - Auxiliary Aids and Services Available Upon Request to Individuals With Disabilities Georgia Department of Labor Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2004 Contents History ............................................................................................................................................................ 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................. 2 U.S. Consumer Price Index ......................................................................................................................... 3 Georgia Index of Economic Indicators ...................................................................................................... 4 Georgia Data Summary ................................................................................................................................ 5 Employment, Manufacturing Wages and Hours .................................................................................... 6 Nonagricultural, Retail, Manufacturing,Workweek, Earnings and Deflated Earnings Job Openings, Unemployment Data and Vehicle Sales ........................................................................ 7 Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Initial/ Continued Unemployment Claims, Unemployment Rate, Insured Unemployment Rate and New Motor Vehicle Sales Construction, New Business and State Revenue ................................................................................... 8 Residential/ Nonresidential Construction, Deflated Nonresidential Construction, New Business Corporations, Total/ Deflated State Revenue Consumer Price Index for Atlanta .............................................................................................................. 9 Metro Atlanta Index of Economic Indicators ........................................................................................... 10 Atlanta Data Summary ................................................................................................................................ 11 Employment Data ......................................................................................................................................... 12 Nonagricultural, Wholesale, (Retail Accommodation and Food Services), Manufacturing and Government Emloyment Data - Continued ..................................................................................................................... 13 Construction, (Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities), Financial Activities, Professional and Business Services, Hospital Services and Social Assistance Manufacturing Workweek, Earnings and Unemployment Data .......................................................... 14 Manufacturing -(Workweek, Earnings and Deflated Earnings), Initial/ Continued Unemployment Claims and Unemployment Rates Unemployment Data, Transit and Construction Data ............................................................................ 15 Insured Unemployment Rate, Marta Passengers, Cobb Community Transit Passengers, Residential/ Nonresidential Construction and Deflated Nonresidential Construction Hotel and Mortgage Rates ......................................................................................................................... 16 Hotel Occupancy, Average Hotel Room Rates, Deflated Average Hotel Room Rates, Average 30-Year/ 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates and Average One-Year Adjustable Mortgage Rates History Radium Springs, one of the seven Natural Wonders of Georgia, was believed to be a spring of healing by the Creek Indians. The Indians called these waters the Blue Springs because of the rare sapphire-blue waters of the spring. Legend has it that warring tribes were at peace when they came together at the spring, and when Spanish explorers came looking for the so-called Fountain of Youth, Indian guides made sure the conquistadors never saw that special spring. The Creek Indians vanished in the 1830's. In the 1920s, publishing magnate Barron Collier purchased the land. After chemical analysis showed that the water contained trace amounts of radium, he named the place Radium Springs and built a casino, lodge and country club at the site. The beautiful buildings, lined with windows, still stand today. For decades, the Radium Springs Casino was the place to go in southwest Georgia for elegance and for fun. Florida-bound tourist traveling the railroad stopped in Albany for a trip to the renowned restaurants and swimming at Radium Springs. Introduction G eorgia Economic Indicators, Quarterly Report, is designed to provide data on a number of indicators used to measure movement of the state's economy in a single publication. Our publication has changed. The Georgia and Metropolitan Altanta Economic Indicator series, previously published as two separate monthly publications, are now published as a single quarterly publication. Graphs will continue to display data on monthly increments; whereas, companion data tables will display the 3-month average for each series (for 7 quarters) before alternating to a monthly format for the most recent quarter. All data except those contained in the U.S. and Atlanta Consumer Price Index chart on Pages 3 and 9 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data that have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars. Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually. Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning Georgia Economic Indicators, Quarterly Report and Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Bill Webb, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 232-3875. ** Seasonal factors updated March 2004 Data Sources Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Manufacturing Workweek and Employment data. -- Georgia Department of Labor Consumer Price Index -- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, adapted from commentary by Michael Wald New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group MARTA Passengers -- Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit System CCT Passengers -- Cobb Community Transit System Hotel Occupancy and Room Rates -- PKF Consulting, Atlanta, GA (as of July 2003) Mortgage Rates -- HSH Associates, Financial Publishers, Butler, NJ * Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center 2 Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2004 Georgia Department of Labor Consumer Price Index Chart is not seasonally adjusted YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR 1991 134.6 134.8 135.0 135.2 1992 138.1 138.6 139.3 139.5 1993 142.6 143.1 143.6 144.0 1994 146.2 146.7 147.2 147.4 1995 150.3 150.9 151.4 151.9 1996 154.4 154.9 155.7 156.3 1997 159.1 159.6 160.0 160.2 1998 161.6 161.9 162.2 162.5 1999 164.3 164.5 165.0 166.2 2000 168.7 169.7 171.1 171.2 2001 175.1 175.8 176.2 176.9 2002 177.1 177.8 178.8 179.8 2003 181.7 183.1 184.2 183.8 2004 185.2 186.2 187.4 * Annual rate computed from December to December MAY 135.6 139.7 144.2 147.5 152.2 156.6 160.1 162.8 166.2 171.3 177.7 179.8 183.5 JUN 136.0 140.2 144.4 148.0 152.5 156.7 160.3 163.0 166.2 172.3 178.0 179.9 183.7 JUL 136.2 140.5 144.4 148.4 152.5 157.0 160.5 163.2 166.7 172.6 177.5 180.1 183.9 AUG 136.6 140.9 144.8 149.0 152.9 157.3 160.8 163.4 167.1 172.8 177.5 180.7 184.6 SEP 137.2 141.3 145.1 149.4 153.2 157.8 161.2 163.6 167.9 173.7 178.3 181.0 185.2 OCT 137.4 141.9 145.7 149.5 153.7 158.3 161.6 164.0 168.2 174.0 177.7 181.3 185.0 NOV 137.8 142.0 145.8 149.7 153.6 158.6 161.5 164.0 168.3 174.1 177.4 181.3 184.5 DEC 137.9 141.9 145.8 149.7 153.5 158.6 161.3 163.9 168.3 174.0 176.7 180.9 184.3 ANN AVG 136.2 140.3 144.5 148.2 152.4 156.9 160.5 163.0 166.6 172.1 177.1 179.9 184.0 * CPI RATE 3.1% 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 3.3% 1.7% 1.6% 2.7% 3.4% 1.6% 2.4% 1.9% Source: U.S. Bureau Of Labor Statistics @www.bls.gov Inflation Spikes in March The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent in March, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. The March level of 187.4 (1982-84=100) was 1.7 percent higher than in March 2003. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U increased 0.5 percent in March, following an increase of 0.3 percent in February. Energy costs advanced sharply for the third consecutive month, up 1.9 percent in March. The index for all items less food and energy, which rose 0.2 percent in February, increased 0.4 percent in March. Upturns in the indexes for lodging while away from home and for apparel accounted for the larger advance in March. For the first three months of 2004, consumer prices increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 5.1 percent. This compares with an increase of 1.9 percent for all of 2003. The index for energy, which rose 6.9 percent in 2003, accelerated in the first quarter of 2004, advancing at a 38.6 percent SAAR and accounting for about half of the first quarter advance in the overall CPI-U. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U advanced at a 2.9 percent SAAR in the first quarter, following a 1.1 percent rise in all of 2003. While many categories advanced at a faster rate in the first quarter of 2004 than in all of 2003, most of the acceleration was accounted for by larger increases in the indexes for shelter and for medical care, and an upturn in the index for apparel. The index for housing rose 0.3 percent in March. Shelter costs, which rose 0.1 percent in February, increased 0.6 percent in March, largely as a result of a 3.8 percent advance in the index for lodging away from home. The index for fuels and utilities declined 1.1 percent, following a 0.9 percent increase in February. The transportation index rose 1.1 percent in March. A 5.5 percent increase in the index for gasoline accounted for over 95 percent of the advance in the overall transportation component. As of March, the price of gasoline was 1.6 percent higher than its previous peak level of March 2003. The index for new vehicles, which rose 0.4 percent in February, turned back down in March, declining 0.1 percent. Airline fares registered their third consecutive advance, up 1.1 percent in March, and are 0.5 percent higher than a year ago. The index for apparel increased 0.9 percent in March. Prior to seasonal adjustment, apparel prices rose 4.1 percent, reflecting the continued introduction of spring-summer wear. Medical care costs rose 0.6 percent in March to a level 4.5 percent higher than a year ago. The index for medical care commodities increased 0.2 percent. The index for medical care services rose 0.7 percent in March. Charges for physician's services and for hospital and related services increased 0.9 and 0.5 percent, respectively. Georgia Department of Labor Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2004 3 Georgia Index of Economic Indicators 208 Leading indicators Coincident indicators 181 154 128 101 1990 = 100 74 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Commercial Construction Takes Control of Index Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted. *** The Georgia Department of Labor's Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) attempted to move on to stable ground during the first quarter of 2004. However, at the end of the quarter large movements in the construction industry held the index back. The LEI moved slightly lower in January (-0.1%, 180.4) then turned up in February (+1.2%, 182.7), before decreasing in March (-1.1%, 180.6). Again, the most significant movement in Q1 was in construction. In February, the value of nonresidential construction reached $717 million, which moved the indicator forward. The large increase in commercial construction was dominated by contracts for new additions and major alteration projects concentrated in the office and bank sectors. The downside of the spike in construction moved the indicator lower in March. Double digit increases in residential construction (+26.0%) and new business filings (+18.5) could not prevent the indicator from sliding at the end of the quarter. Sales of new motor vehicles declined 18% in March, as other variables in the index fluctuated in the single digits. The Coincident Economic Indicator (CEI) posted a strong (+2.0, 174.4) gain in January. The following month the index advanced a modestly (+0.2,174.9) then declined in March (-0.1%, 174.6) State tax revenue collected contracted 13.8% in February ending the quarter up 6.0 percent (in March). The retail industry eked out a small gain in employment (+ 0.6%, 440K) in February before declining (-0.5%, 438K) in March. Unemployment continued its downward decent sliding from 4.0 percent at the start of the year to 3.6 percent in March. Strong employment gains and increased business spending are being reported at the national level. These trends should clear the way for the state's economy to expand throughout the year. The Leading Index reflects activity that will impact the economy for a duration of three to six months into the future. Coincident indicators measure current conditions. 4 Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2004 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Nonagricultural Employment change from previous month Retail Employment change from previous month Manufacturing Employment change from previous month Manufacturing Workweek (hours) change from previous month Weekly Manufacturing Earnings change from previous month Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled change from previous month Initial Unemployment Claims change from previous month Continued Unemployment Claims change from previous month Unemployment rate (not seasonally adjusted) change from previous month Insured Unemployment Rate change from previous month New Motor Vehicle Sales change from previous month Residential Construction ( building permits ) change from previous month Nonresidential Construction ( dollar value ) change from previous month New Business Corporations change from previous month Total State Revenues ( in millions ) change from previous month Deflated State Revenues ( in millions ) change from previous month Georgia Department of Labor March 2004 3,872,565 -0.38% February 2004 3,887,214 -0.32% January 2004 3,899,756 - - 438,309 -0.57% 440,804 0.68% 437,827 - - 450,299 -0.47% 452,442 -0.15% 453,101 - - 38.3 40.1 39.6 -4.38% 1.24% - - $575.86 -1.29% $583.36 4.60% $557.72 - - 15,823 11.87% 14,144 -0.39% 14,200 - - 44,050 6.63% 41,309 3.43% 39,939 - - 308,084 19.05% 258,778 7.82% 240,007 - - 3.6% 3.8% 4.1% - - - - - - 1.58% - - 1.67% - - 1.63% - - 34,543 -18.06% 42,157 -1.42% 42,763 - - 9,344 26.09% 7,411 -15.70% 8,791 - - $376,320,733 -47.58% $717,959,677 125.21% $318,801,707 - - 6,253 18.51% 5,277 8.62% 4,858 - - $1,085,971,753 6.72% $1,017,574,957 -13.39% $1,174,861,810 - - 579,493,100 6.04% 546,493,000 -13.85% 634,373,700 - - Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2004 5 MILLIONS THOUSANDS GEORGIA 3. 95 2002-2003 2003-2004 3. 91 3. 87 3. 83 3. 79 Nonagricultural Employment 3. 75 500 480 460 440 420 Retail Employment 400 DOLLARS HOURS 44. 2 42. 7 41. 3 39. 8 38. 4 36. 9 $595 $575 $555 $535 $515 $495 2002-2003 2003-2004 Manufacturing Workweek Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings 510 $ 340 490 $ 325 470 $ 310 DOLLARS 450 $ 295 430 $ 280 Manufacturing Employment Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings 410 $ 265 A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M Employment 2002: Q2 Q3 Q4 2003: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2004: Jan Feb Mar Nonag 3,879,475 3,861,691 3,863,809 3,866,128 3,846,268 3,861,261 3,867,909 3,899,756 3,887,214 3,872,565 Retail 452,792 449,569 447,650 445,182 444,670 445,490 438,924 437,827 440,804 438,309 Mfg. 468,917 466,223 460,456 461,090 453,198 445,885 446,520 453,101 452,442 450,299 All graphs contain monthly data and are seasonally adjusted, except where noted. Manufacturing Avg. Work Week Weekly Earnings 41.2 $545.41 40.6 536.72 40.6 557.99 40.6 565.18 40.4 571.81 39.2 548.95 38.9 554.68 39.6 557.72 40.1 583.36 38.3 575.86 Deflated Wkly Earnings $303.29 297.17 308.00 308.83 311.33 297.45 300.48 301.15 313.30 307.29 THOUSANDS 6 Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2004 Georgia Department of Labor THOUSANDS THOUSANDS GEORGIA 19. 7 2002-2003 2003-2004 16. 2 12. 7 9. 2 5. 7 Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled 2. 2 99. 6 80. 9 62. 1 43. 4 24. 6 Initial Unemployment Claims 5.9 550 PERCENTAGES PERCENTAGES 6. 2 5. 6 5. 1 4. 5 4. 0 3. 4 3.26 2.76 2.26 1.76 1.26 0.76 60 2002-2003 2003-2004 Unemployment Rate Insured Unemployment Rate 450 53 THOUSANDS 350 47 250 40 150 Continued Unemployment Claims 50 A M J J A S O N D J F M 34 New Motor Vehicle Sales 27 A M J J A S O N D J F M 2002: Q2 Q3 Q4 2003: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2004: Jan Feb Mar Job Openings 9,803 10,116 10,974 11,306 11,771 13,958 14,006 14,200 14,144 15,823 Initial Claims 47,276 45,025 50,810 50,806 55,314 53,114 44,851 39,939 41,309 44,050 1 Rate at the end of each quarter, except for monthly rates. Unemployment Continued Claims 332,488 Rate 1 5.7% 314,548 5.4% 299,306 5.1% 315,345 4.7% 321,971 5.4% 307,311 4.6% 275,545 4.0% 240,007 4.1% 258,778 3.8% 308,084 3.6% Insured 1 1.93% 1.94% 2.14% 1.98% 2.02% 1.88% 1.73% 1.63% 1.67% 1.58% New Motor Vehicle Sales 46,318 45,782 42,889 42,671 43,318 44,085 43,771 42,763 42,157 34,543 THOUSANDS Georgia Department of Labor Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2004 7 HOUSEHOLD UNITS MILLIONS GEORGIA 11, 000 9, 900 2002-2003 2003-2004 8, 800 8, 000 7, 000 6, 000 2002-2003 2003-2004 CHARTERS 7, 700 5, 000 6, 600 Residential Construction 5, 500 $ 810 $ 672 $ 534 $ 396 $ 258 Nonresidential Construction $ 120 $ 675 MILLIONS 4, 000 3, 000 $ 1,683 $ 1,466 $ 1,250 $ 1,033 $ 817 $ 600 $ 940 New Business Corporations Total State Revenue $ 550 $ 823 MILLIONS $ 425 $ 706 $ 300 $ 589 $ 175 $ 50 A Deflated Nonresidential Construction M J J A S O N D J $ 472 Deflated Total State Revenue $ 355 F M A M J J A S O N D J F M MILLIONS Construction Residential 2 Non-residential 1 Deflated non-res 1 2002: Q2 8,403 Q3 7,815 Q4 7,982 2003: Q1 7,343 Q2 6,938 Q3 8,754 Q4 8,593 2004: Jan 8,791 Feb 7,411 Mar 9,344 1 Data rounded 2 Household units 3 Includes limited liability companies $459,955,000 426,161,000 481,984,000 415,385,000 410,004,000 476,499,000 362,503,000 318,802,000 717,960,000 376,321,000 $371,330,700 343,585,900 382,932,200 323,844,900 318,408,500 367,196,800 273,518,400 237,027,500 531,822,200 278,138,200 8 Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2004 New Business Corporations 3 4,770 5,274 5,158 4,912 5,749 5,601 6,158 4,858 5,277 6,253 Total State Revenue 1 Deflated Rev. 1 $1,079,300,000 1,037,890,000 1,076,190,000 1,044,060,000 1,053,930,000 1,080,440,000 1,121,440,000 1,174,860,000 1,017,570,000 1,085,970,000 $600,166,800 574,689,900 594,033,100 570,524,600 573,827,600 585,392,800 607,497,300 634,373,700 546,493,000 579,493,100 Georgia Department of Labor Consumer Price Index for the South Chart is not seasonally adjusted YEAR JAN 1991 131.4 1992 134.4 1993 138.4 1994 142.5 1995 146.7 1996 151.1 1997 155.7 1998 157.6 1999 159.9 2000 164.0 2001 169.3 2002 170.6 2003 175.1 2004 178.2 FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 131.7 131.9 132.1 132.5 132.8 133.0 133.3 133.8 134.1 134.4 134.3 134.9 135.5 135.9 136.2 136.7 136.8 137.0 137.3 137.8 138.1 137.9 139.1 139.7 140.2 140.7 140.8 140.9 141.5 141.6 142.2 142.3 142.2 142.9 143.6 143.8 144.3 144.7 145.0 145.5 145.8 145.9 146.0 146.1 147.4 148.0 148.4 148.8 149.1 149.2 149.7 149.8 150.5 150.4 150.3 151.5 152.4 153.2 153.5 154.0 154.0 154.1 154.5 154.9 155.1 155.1 156.1 156.5 156.7 156.6 157.0 157.0 157.1 157.5 157.8 157.8 157.3 157.8 158.2 158.5 158.8 159.1 159.3 159.5 159.5 159.8 159.6 159.6 160.0 160.6 161.5 161.6 161.7 162.2 162.6 163.2 163.6 163.5 163.6 164.7 166.4 166.6 166.6 167.4 167.9 168.0 168.5 168.5 168.6 168.4 170.2 170.6 171.4 171.7 172.2 171.6 171.5 172.2 171.7 171.0 170.3 171.0 172.1 173.1 173.2 173.5 173.6 173.8 174.2 174.9 174.9 174.6 176.4 177.5 177.4 176.8 177.2 177.3 177.9 178.3 178.1 177.5 177.5 179.1 180.1 ANN AVG 132.9 136.5 140.8 144.7 149.0 153.6 156.9 158.9 162.0 167.2 171.1 173.3 177.3 * CPI RATE 2.6% 2.7% 3.1% 2.7% 2.9% 3.2% 1.4% 1.5% 2.5% 2.9% 1.1% 2.5% 1.7% * Annual rate computed from December to December Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics @ www.bls.gov The CPI for the South Moves North The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) for the South increased 0.6 in March, not seasonally adjusted, to a level of 180.1 (1982-84=100), as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. Higher costs for apparel, housing and transportation accounted for the increase in prices over the month. Energy costs advanced 1.6 percent in March. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-South increased 0.5 percent over the month. Over the past 12 months, prices in the South have risen 1.5 percent due to higher costs for housing and medical care. Energy costs advanced 2.3 percent over the year. Excluding food and energy costs, the index for all other items rose 1.0 percent since last March, slightly higher than the 12-month increase recorded in March 2003. Housing costs advanced 0.3 percent in March due to higher costs for shelter, which rose 0.5 percent over the month. Household fuels and utilities costs declined 0.6 percent in March after advancing 0.3 percent in February. Household furnishings and operations costs fell 0.2 percent in March. Apparel costs increased 5.5 percent over the month after rising a modest 0.3 percent in February 2004. This one month increase was the largest rise recorded since the index became monthly in 1987. Over the past year, apparel prices declined 2.4 percent. This index has not recorded a twelve month increase in prices since October 2001. Transportation costs rose 0.9 percent in March due to rising gasoline prices (4.3 percent). Costs for new vehicles fell 0.4 percent over the month. Since March 2003, the transportation index dropped 0.4 percent. Gasoline costs have risen 2.5 percent over the past year. Medical care costs rose 0.3 percent in March. Over the month, costs of medical care commodities and services have risen 0.3 percent, each. Over the past year, the medical care index has gained 3.9 percent. Medical care commodities' costs increased a more modest 2.6 percent for the same time period. Georgia Department of Labor Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2004 9 Metro Atlanta Index of Economic Indicators 184.9 Leading indicators Coincident indicators 165.6 146.3 127.1 107.8 1995-96 = 100 88.5 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 Atlanta's Coincident Indicator Picks up Pace Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted. *** Atlanta's Economic Indicators gained momentum during the first quarter. The Leading Economic Indicator posted two months of consecutive gains, before declining. The Coincident Economic Indicator had gains troughout the entire quarter. The Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) started the year off on the right foot advancing in January (+0.2%, 173.0) and February (+1.8%,176.3), before declining in March (-1.1%, 174.2). A surge in nonresidential construction, that originated in Fulton county, pushed the index forward in February only to take it back in March. The value of commercial construction jumped to $572 million in February, which catapulted the LEI forward. However, the construction sector spiraled back down to $156 million in March, placing downward pressure on the index to end the quarter in negative territory. The residential construction sector, which is expected to decline as interest rates increase held it's ground during the quarter. Permits for construction declined in February (-14.3%) only to be reversed in March (+22.1%). Initial jobless claims increased during the first quarter; however, claim levels remain in-line with last fourth quarters numbers. The manufacturing workweek remained in the 38-40 hour range throughout the reporting period. The Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI) continued to climb during the first quarter, even after the 2003 benchmarking, which lowered retail employment. Unemployment closed out the quarter at 3.8 percent in March, riding two-tenths above the state's rate. Retail employment increased from 238 thousand (in January) to 241 thousand (in February) before declining to 240 thousand in March. Employment in the retail sector should average around 240,000 jobs during the first quarter. As the recovery becomes more broad based, jobs will be created in industries other than the service sector. Commercial construction may be showing signs of a recovery. The next two quarters will determine if the confidence of executives are strong enough to pull their projects off the shelf. 10 Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2004 Georgia Department of Labor Metro Atlanta Mar-2004 Feb-2004 Jan-2004 Percent Change Feb-2004 to Mar-2004 Percent Change Jan-2004 to Feb-2004 Nonagricultural Employment 2,167,107 Wholesale Employment 136,094 Retail Employment 240,353 Accommodation and Food Services Employment 183,549 Manufacturing Employment 170,806 Government Employment 291,091 Construction Employment 120,650 Trans., Warehousing and Utilities Employment 115,663 Financial Activities Employment 147,749 Professional and Business Services Employment 339,819 Hospital Services Employment 58,125 Social Assistance Employment 26,033 Manufacturing Workweek 38.7 Manufacturing Earnings $573.93 Deflated Manufacturing Earnings $306.26 Initial Unemployment Claims 12,328 Continued Unemployment Claims 152,872 Total Unemployment Rate ( not seasonally adjusted ) 3.8 Insured Unemployment Rate 1.47% MARTA Passengers 5,664,000 Cobb County Transit Passengers 224,175 Residential Construction (household units) 6,318 Nonresidential Construction (value) $156,801,000 Deflated Nonresidential Construction $115,900,000 Hotel Occupancy 66.8% Average Hotel Room Rates $98.22 Deflated Average Hotel Room Rate $52.41 Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate 5.47% Average 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate 4.78% Average One-Year Adjustable Mortgage Rate 3.07% 2,176,851 136,185 241,445 184,207 171,117 292,067 120,197 116,080 148,055 342,034 57,525 26,678 40.1 $587.30 $315.41 12,114 133,825 3.9 1.55% 5,433,000 204,590 5,173 $572,441,000 $424,000,000 62.9% $90.27 $48.48 5.69% 5.02% 3.36% 2,186,737 137,207 238,763 186,156 169,731 292,390 121,311 105,336 148,256 347,313 57,383 27,589 38.1 $611.60 $330.24 10,134 93,449 4.2 1.52% 5,518,000 219,820 6,037 $180,855,000 $134,500,000 65.5% $91.95 $49.65 5.78% 5.07% 3.40% -0.45% -0.45% -0.07% -0.75% -0.45% 1.12% -0.36% -1.05% -0.18% 0.82% -0.33% -0.11% 0.38% -0.92% -0.36% 10.20% -0.21% -0.14% -0.65% -1.52% 1.04% 0.25% -2.42% -3.30% -3.71% 5.45% -2.28% -3.97% -2.90% -4.49% 1.77% 19.53% 14.23% 43.21% - - - - 4.25% -1.54% 9.57% -6.93% 22.14% -14.32% -72.61% 216.52% -72.67% 215.24% - - 8.81% -1.83% 8.11% -2.36% - - - - - - Georgia Department of Labor Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2004 11 MILLIONS THOUSANDS Metro Atlanta 2. 24 2. 20 2002-2003 2003-2004 2. 17 2. 13 2. 10 Nonagricultural Employment 2. 06 150 145 140 135 130 Wholesale Employment 125 270 THOUSANDS THOUSANDS 300 2002-2003 2003-2004 250 200 150 100 Accommodation and Food Services 50 220 200 180 160 140 Manufacturing Employment 120 310 260 300 THOUSANDS 250 290 240 230 Retail Employment 220 A M J J A S O N D J F M 280 270 Government Employment 260 A M J J A S O N D J F M Period 2002: Q2 Q3 Q4 2003: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2004: Jan Feb Mar Nonag 2,167,542 2,166,405 2,171,614 2,160,724 2,150,461 2,162,940 2,160,913 2,186,737 2,176,851 2,167,107 Wholesale 142,207 139,903 140,712 137,432 136,427 136,355 136,152 137,207 136,185 136,094 Employment Retail Accom. & Food Services 247,377 246,147 245,580 240,992 241,539 242,916 237,683 238,763 241,445 240,353 169,236 168,635 170,700 174,820 175,425 177,603 181,055 186,156 184,207 183,549 Manufacturing 170,387 168,863 167,589 172,209 171,461 169,390 168,438 169,731 171,117 170,806 Government 281,277 285,049 286,414 289,447 285,599 287,179 289,100 292,390 292,067 291,091 THOUSANDS 12 Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2004 Georgia Department of Labor THOUSANDS THOUSANDS Metro Atlanta 132 2002-2003 2003-2004 126 120 114 108 Construction Employment 102 140 130 120 110 100 Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Employment 90 155 THOUSANDS THOUSANDS 400 2002-2003 2003-2004 380 360 340 320 Professional and Business Services Employment 300 80 70 60 50 40 Hospital Services Employment 30 40 151 35 147 30 THOUSANDS 143 25 139 Financial Activities Employment 20 Social Assistance Employment 135 15 A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M Period 2002: Q2 Q3 Q4 2003: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2004: Jan Feb Mar Construction 115,621 114,541 114,879 115,209 113,535 115,036 118,626 121,311 120,197 120,650 Trans, Ware & Utilities 117,229 115,772 116,245 117,127 113,908 113,878 114,204 105,336 116,080 115,663 Employment Financial Activities Professional & Business Services 145,115 144,937 148,190 147,888 148,043 149,176 147,114 148,256 148,055 147,749 358,851 360,484 360,186 338,255 334,512 338,906 340,349 347,313 342,034 339,819 Hospital Services 55,545 55,074 56,032 56,879 56,542 57,389 57,867 57,383 57,525 58,125 Social Assistance 25,311 25,183 25,330 25,887 25,616 26,035 26,076 27,589 26,678 26,033 THOUSANDS Georgia Department of Labor Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2004 13 HOURS DOLLARS Metro Atlanta 43. 0 41. 0 2002-2003 2003-2004 26. 9 21. 9 2002-2003 2003-2004 THOUSANDS 39. 0 16. 9 37. 0 35. 0 Manufacturing Workweek 33. 0 $ 675 $ 635 $ 595 11. 9 6. 9 Initial Unemployment Claims 1. 9 275 225 175 THOUSANDS $ 555 $ 515 Manufacturing Earnings $ 475 475 125 75 Continued Unemployment Claims 25 7.0 420 365 310 255 Deflated Manufacturing Earnings 200 A M J J A S O N D J F M PERCENTAGES 6.0 5.0 4.0 Unemployment Rate 3.0 A M J J A S O N D J F M DOLLARS Period 2002: Q2 Q3 Q4 2003: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2004: Jan Feb Mar Work Week (hrs) 40.0 39.0 39.5 40.8 40.3 38.9 39.2 38.1 40.1 38.7 Manufacturing Weekly Earnings $607.21 593.49 604.99 568.10 568.80 543.54 560.37 611.60 587.30 573.93 Deflated Earnings $337.65 328.62 333.94 310.45 309.70 294.52 303.56 330.24 315.41 306.26 14 Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2004 Initial Claims 14,878 13,060 13,623 13,272 15,564 13,186 11,560 10,134 12,114 12,328 Unemployment Continued Claims 186,676 173,034 163,621 158,677 178,406 161,618 146,319 93,449 133,825 152,872 Rate 5.9% 5.6% 5.2% 4.7% 5.5% 4.8% 4.0% 4.2% 3.9% 3.8% Georgia Department of Labor PERCENTAGES MILLIONS Metro Atlanta 2.9 2002-2003 2003-2004 2.5 2.1 1.7 1.3 Insured Unemployment Rate 0.9 7. 0 6. 5 6. 0 5. 5 5. 0 MARTA Passengers 4. 5 250 225 MILLIONS HOUSEHOLD UNITS ( THOUSANDS ) 7. 5 6. 6 5. 8 4. 9 4. 1 3. 2 $ 750 $ 600 $ 450 $ 300 $ 150 $0 $ 510 $ 410 2002-2003 2003-2004 Residential Construction Nonresidential Construction 200 $ 310 MILLIONS 175 $ 210 150 Cobb Community Transit Passengers $ 110 Deflated Nonresidential Construction 125 $ 10 A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M THOUSANDS Period Insured Unemployment Rate 2 Transit Passengers MARTA 1 Cobb Community 2002: Q2 1.96% 5,637,400 167,733 Q3 1.83% 5,361,200 178,376 Q4 1.84% 5,456,900 193,958 2003: Q1 1.81% 5,476,300 191,127 Q2 1.93% 5,570,400 190,276 Q3 1.75% 5,506,000 202,328 Q4 1.54% 5,577,700 217,738 2004: Jan 1.52% 5,517,700 219,820 Feb 1.55% 5,432,600 204,590 Mar 1.47% 5,664,000 1 Data rounded 2 Rate at the end of each quarter, except for monthly rates. 3 Household units 224,175 Georgia Department of Labor Residential 3 5,721 5,180 5,442 4,831 4,623 6,149 5,992 6,037 5,173 6,318 Construction Nonresidential 1 $283,007,000 290,063,000 285,491,000 236,366,000 250,483,000 290,529,000 186,460,000 180,855,000 572,441,000 156,801,000 Deflated Non-res $228,500,000 233,766,667 226,833,333 184,166,667 194,866,667 223,733,333 140,700,000 134,500,000 424,000,000 115,900,000 Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2004 15 PERCENTAGES DOLLARS Metro Atlanta 75 2002-2003 2003-2004 69 63 56 50 Hotel Occupancy 44 $110 $100 $90 $80 $70 Average Hotel Room Rates $60 $ 60 PERCENTAGES PERCENTAGES 7.60 7.00 6.40 2002-2003 2003-2004 5.80 5.20 Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates 4.60 7. 10 6. 48 5. 86 5. 24 4. 62 Average 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates 4. 00 7. 41 $ 54 6. 21 PERCENTAGES $ 48 5. 01 $ 42 3. 81 $ 36 Deflated Average Hotel Room Rates 2. 61 Average One-Year Adjustable Mortgage Rates $ 30 A M J J A S O N D J 1. 41 F M A M J J A S O N D J F M DOLLARS Hotel Data Period Occupancy% 3 Room Rates 3 Deflated Room Rates 2002: Q2 57.8% $77.55 $43.13 Q3 57.7% 75.75 41.94 Q4 58.2% 77.10 42.56 2003: Q1 56.8% 74.18 40.54 Q2 55.3% 72.16 39.29 Q3 63.4% 92.57 50.16 Q4 61.8% 93.24 50.51 2004: Jan 65.5% 91.95 49.65 Feb 62.9% 90.27 48.48 Mar 66.8% 98.22 52.41 1 Rate does not include points 2 Mortgage rates are not seasonally adjusted 3 Hotel data compiled after July 2003 is not comparable to prior time periods. 16 Economic Indicators / First Quarter 2004 3 0 - Ye a r Fixed 1 6.60% 6.16% 6.00% 5.74% 5.22% 6.20% 5.91% 5.78% 5.69% 5.47% Mortgage Rates 1 5 - Ye a r Fixed 1,2 6.11% 5.58% 5.40% 5.10% 4.61% 5.47% 5.24% 5.07% 5.02% 4.78% O n e - Ye a r Rate Adjustable1,2 4.29% 4.20% 3.63% 3.43% 3.18% 3.66% 3.57% 3.40% 3.36% 3.07% Georgia Department of Labor Dear Subscriber to Economic Indicators: Several new methods for releasing the Economic Indicators publication have been introduced within the last few years. One of the other methods may better meet your needs. Internet -- The Economic Indicators are found at www.dol.state.ga.us/wp/lmi_publications.htm. This will allow you immediate access to the information, no further action is necessary. E-Mail -- Notification and a hyperlink can be delivered to you by e-mail on the morning of the release. Please complete the form at the bottom and return with your e-mail address or notify us by e-mail at workforce_info@dol.state.ga.us. Mailed Publication -- If you wish to receive the Economic Indicators publication by U.S. mail. If you are a new subscriber please select a method of delivery and return this form via mail, fax or e-mail. If you are an exisiting subsriber select an option and make any necessary changes below before returning this form. Please check one I wish to receive the notification of the hyperlink by e-mail. My e-mail address and phone are: __________________ @ _________________ (_ _ _) _ _ _-_ _ _ _ I wish to receive this publication by mail. Existing subsriber with a change in delivery option and/or address. Please include 5-digit # on your current mailing label. _ _ _ _ _ Organization _____________________________________________________ Name __________________________________________________________ Street or P.O. Box _________________________________________________ City, State, Zip Code _______________________________________________ Work Phone: ___________________ Ext:___________ If you have any questions, please contact Workforce Information & Analysis at (404) 232-3875, by fax at (404) 232-3888, or by e-mail at workforce_info@dol.state.ga.us. Type "Economic Indicators" in the subject box of your e-mail. This page was intentionally left blank