Georgia economic indicators, monthly report [Vol. 8, no. 8 (Oct. 2002)]

GEORGIA

Economic Indicators

A Monthly Report of Georgia State Labor Market and Economic Trends

October 2002

Volume 8, Issue 8

Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner

Georgia Economic Indicators
Monthly Report August 2002 Data
Volume 8, Issue 8 October 2002

Cover art: Piedmont College satellite campuses in Athens, Georgia by Huey J. Theus, Mableton, Georgia
Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177.
Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us

Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner

Equal Opportunity Employer/Programs - Auxiliary Aids and Services Available Upon Request to Individuals With Disabilities

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / October 2002

Introduction

G eorgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is designed to provide in a single publication data on a
number of indicators used to measure movement of the state's economy.
The indicators have been collected and disseminated for many years by state and federal governments and private agencies, but not under a single cover. Contributing agencies include Georgia's Department of Labor, Department of Revenue and Office of Secretary of State, the U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the F.W. Dodge Company.
All data except those contained in the U.S. Consumer Price Index chart on Page 3 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data that have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars.
Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually in February.
The purpose of the publications is to serve the business and professional communities, economic developers, economists, educators and others who have need for information on state economic trends.

Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning Georgia economic Indicators, Monthly Report and Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Bill Webb, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177.

Data Sources

Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Employment, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Retail Employment, Manufacturing Employment and Manufacturing Workweek -- Georgia Department of Labor
Consumer Price Index -- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, adapted from commentary by Michael Wald
New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue
New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State
Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce
Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group
* Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center

2 Georgia Economic Indicators / October 2002

Georgia Department of Labor

Consumer Price Index

Chart is not seasonally adjusted

YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC AVG

CPI RATE

1986 109.6 109.3 108.8 108.6 108.9 109.5 109.5 109.7 110.2 110.3 110.4 110.5 109.6 1.1%

1987 111.2 111.6 112.1 112.7 113.1 113.5 113.8 114.4 115.0 115.3 115.4 115.4 113.6 4.4%

1988 115.7 116.0 116.5 117.1 117.5 118.0 118.5 119.0 119.8 120.2 120.3 120.5 118.3 4.4%

1989 121.1 121.6 122.3 123.1 123.8 124.1 124.4 124.6 125.0 125.0 125.9 126.1 124.0 4.6%

1990 127.4 128.0 128.7 128.9 129.2 129.9 130.4 131.6 132.7 133.5 133.8 133.8 130.7 6.1%

1991 134.6 134.8 135.0 135.2 135.6 136.0 136.2 136.6 137.2 137.4 137.8 137.9 136.2 3.1%

1992 138.1 138.6 139.3 139.5 139.7 140.2 140.5 140.9 141.3 141.9 142.0 141.9 140.3 2.9%

1993 142.6 143.1 143.6 144.0 144.2 144.4 144.4 144.8 145.1 145.7 145.8 145.8 144.5 2.7%

1994 146.2 146.7 147.2 147.4 147.5 148.0 148.4 149.0 149.4 149.5 149.7 149.7 148.2 2.7%

1995 150.3 150.9 151.4 151.9 152.2 152.5 152.5 152.9 153.2 153.7 153.6 153.5 152.4 2.5%

1996 154.4 154.9 155.7 156.3 156.6 156.7 157.0 157.3 157.8 158.3 158.6 158.6 156.9 3.3%

1997 159.1 159.6 160.0 160.2 160.1 160.3 160.5 160.8 161.2 161.6 161.5 161.3 160.5 1.7%

1998 161.6 161.9 162.2 162.5 162.8 163.0 163.2 163.4 163.6 164.0 164.0 163.9 163.0 1.6%

1999 164.3 164.5 165.0 166.2 166.2 166.2 166.7 167.1 167.9 168.2 168.3 168.3 166.6 2.7%

2000 168.7 169.7 171.1 171.2 171.3 172.3 172.6 172.8 173.7 174.0 174.1 174.0 172.1 3.4%

2001 175.1 175.8 176.2 176.9 177.7 178.0 177.5 177.5 178.3 177.7 177.4 176.7 177.1 1.6%

2002 177.1 177.8 178.8 179.8 179.8 179.9 180.1 180.7

Source: U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS AT WWW.BLS.GOV
CPI accelerates in August

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in August, before seasonal adjustment, as recently reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. The August level of 180.7 (1982-84=100) was 1.8 percent higher than its level in August 2001.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U rose 0.3 percent in August, following increases of 0.1 percent in each of the preceding two months. Excluding food and energy, the CPIU rose 0.3 percent after increasing 0.2 percent in July.
During the first eight months of 2002, the CPI-U rose at a 2.7 percent seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). This compares with an increase of 1.6 percent for all of 2001. The index for energy, which declined 13.0 percent in 2001, increased at a 13.5 percent SAAR in the first eight months of 2002.

Petroleum-based energy costs increased at a 32.6 percent annual rate, while charges for energy services declined at a 0.9 percent annual rate. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U advanced at a 2.2 percent SAAR in the first eight months, following a 2.7 percent rise in all of 2001.
The index for housing rose 0.3 percent in August. Shelter costs, which increased 0.2 percent in July, rose 0.4 percent in August. The index for fuels and utilities rose 0.3 percent in August. The indexes for fuel oil and for electricity increased 2.1 and 0.6 percent, respectively, while the index for natural gas declined 0.3 percent.
The transportation index rose 0.4 percent in August. The index for gasoline increased for the third consecutive month, up 0.5 percent in August. The index for new vehicles declined 0.1 percent in August. The index for used cars and trucks rose 0.5 percent in August. Airline fares were

virtually unchanged in August and have decreased 3.8 percent in the last 12 months.
The index for apparel increased 1.1 percent in August, following a 1.0 percent decrease in July. Prior to seasonal adjustment, fuel oil prices rose 0.7 percent, charges for electricity were unchanged, and charges for natural gas fell 0.2 percent.
The medical care index rose 0.2 percent in August to a level 4.7 percent above its level a year ago. The index for medical care commodities increased 0.2 percent. The index for medical care services also rose 0.2 percent in August. Charges for professional services were virtually unchanged, while those for hospital and related services increased 0.7 percent.

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / October 2002 3

Georgia Index of Economic Indicators

207.5

Leading indicators Coincident indicators

180.9

154.3

127.6

101.0

1987-88 = 100

74.4

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

Georgia's Economic Indicators remain unchanged in August

Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted.

***

The Georgia Department of Labor's Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) was unchanged in August matching July's upwardly revised 178.9, after seasonal adjustment.
The leading indicator, which reflects activity that will impact the economy three to six months into the future remained stable this reporting period. Lower initial jobless claims (down 5.2 percent), higher weekly manufacturing hours worked ( up 2.9 percent) and modest sales of new motor vehicles (up 1.7 percent) offset declines in the residential and commercial construction sectors.
Residential construction, which is a vital part of this economic recovery, hit a snag in August. Permits for residential homes

Recent 12 Months

187.6

Leading Coincident

180.2

172.7

165.2

157.7

1987-88 =100

150.2 SOND J FMAM J J A

plummeted 27.9 percent in August, the largest one month decline in over 2 years. Soft demand for commercial projects continue to hammer the nonresidential construction sector (down 33.3 percent in August).

The Index of Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI), which measures current economic conditions, remained unchanged in August. After July's CEI index was revised downward the readings for the two months settled at 158.7, after seasonal adjustment.
The coincident index displayed mixed single digit movements in multiple sectors, which offset each other. Georgia's unemployment rate declined to 4.7 percent during the month. State tax revenue increased (3.1 percent) in August, ending a three month decline. Nonagricultural and retail employment declined in August, down 0.3 and 0.5 percent, respectively.

4 Georgia Economic Indicators / October 2002

Georgia Department of Labor

Data Summary

August 2002

Georgia Economic Indicators Seasonally Adjusted

Aug 2002

Jul 2002

Aug 2001

Percent Change
Jul 2002 to
Aug 2002

Percent Change
Aug 2001 to
Aug 2002

Nonagricultural Employment

3,854,452

3,869,148

3,945,137

-0.38

-2.30

Retail Employment

696,269

700,238

713,207

-0.57

-2.37

Manufacturing Employment

536,434

536,643

543,104

-0.04

-1.23

Manufacturing Workweek

43.7

42.4

41.3

2.99

5.59

Weekly Manufacturing Earnings

$565.80

$550.42

$536.72

2.79

5.42

Deflated Manufacturing Earnings

$313.12

$305.62

$302.38

2.45

3.55

Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled

10,412

10,766

8,801

-3.29

18.30

Initial Unemployment Claims

42,048

44,364

49,355

-5.22 -14.80

Continued Unemployment Claims

285,241

309,959

263,622

-7.97

8.20

Unemployment Rate (not seasonally adjusted)

4.7%

4.9%

4.0%

Insured Unemployment Rate

1.77%

1.71%

1.64%

New Motor Vehicle Sales

50,365

49,514

49,695

1.72

1.35

Residential Construction (building permits)

6,795

9,432

7,768

-27.95 -12.52

Nonresidential Construction (dollar value) $336,173,000 $504,031,000 $471,396,000

-33.30 -28.69

Deflated Nonresidential Construction $275,777,700 $413,479,100 $393,814,500

-33.30 -29.97

New Business Corporations

5,024

5,202

5,605

-3.42 -10.38

Total State Revenues

$956,127,000 $926,854,000 $1,099,959,000

3.16 -13.08

Deflated Total State Revenues

$529,124,000 $514,633,000 $619,695,200

2.82 -14.62

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / October 2002 5

Georgia Economic Indicators

Nonagricultural Employment

4.03

2000-2001

2001-2002

3.99

3.94

3.90

3.85

3.81

SO NDJ

FMAMJ

J

A

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug

2000-2001
3,970,521 3,971,120 3,973,532 3,979,488 3,969,680 3,977,192 3,983,939 3,982,787 3,974,909 3,971,332 3,960,068 3,945,137

2001-2002
3,935,987 3,942,193 3,906,082 3,892,867 3,872,285 3,880,687 3,873,452 3,889,756 3,887,840 3,880,325 3,869,148 3,854,452

MILLIONS

Retail Employment
729.8 2000-2001
721.3

2001-2002

712.7

THOUSANDS

704.1

695.6

687.0

SO

ND

J

F

MAM

J

J

A

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug

2000-2001
716,140 716,184 719,345 721,436 718,082 717,582 719,611 720,263 720,417 718,372 713,422 713,207

2001-2002
711,789 717,621 712,091 711,426 706,291 702,564 700,432 708,212 701,508 696,824 700,238 696,269

Manufacturing Employment

605

2000-2001

2001-2002

587

569

THOUSANDS

551

533

515

SO ND

J

F MAMJ

J

A

6 Georgia Economic Indicators / October 2002

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

2000-2001
579,493 576,410 574,233 572,476 568,517 565,865 563,555 556,407 551,136 547,482 547,243 543,104

2001-2002
541,888 541,929 533,672 538,342 537,895 539,768 535,800 537,020 538,761 540,368 536,643 536,434

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators

Manufacturing Workweek

45.2

2000-2001

2001-2002

43.7

42.3

HOURS

40.8

39.4

37.9

S

O

N

D

J

F

MA

M

J

J

A

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

2000-2001
41.1 41.3 41.2 41.1 41.0 40.4 40.5 39.2 40.2 40.5 40.6 41.3

2001-2002
41.2 40.6 40.6 40.3 42.8 41.8 42.9 43.0 43.1 43.4 42.4 43.7

Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings

$584

2000-2001

2001-2002

$567

DOLLARS

$549

$532

$515

$498

SON

D

J

FM

AM

J

J

A

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

2000-2001
$538.92 545.68 547.03 538.96 533.25 530.49 529.46 513.66 524.54 532.20 531.66 536.72

2001-2002
$537.84 526.74 523.65 526.39 555.99 558.71 564.83 558.04 559.24 563.70 550.42 565.80

Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings

$329 $319

2000-2001

2001-2002

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month 2000-2001

2001-2002

DOLLARS

Sep

$310.26

$301.65

$309

Oct

313.61

296.42

Nov

314.20

295.18

$299 $289 $279

Dec

309.75

297.90

Jan

304.54

313.94

Feb

301.76

314.24

Mar

300.49

315.90

Apr

290.37

310.37

May

295.18

311.03

Jun

298.99

313.34

Jul

299.53

305.62

Aug

302.38

313.12

SON

D

J

FM

AM

J

J

A

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / October 2002 7

Georgia Economic Indicators

Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled*

22.6

2000-2001

2001-2002

18.3

THOUSANDS

14.0

9.8

5.5

1.2

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

* Jobs listed with the Georgia Department of Labor

Initial Unemployment Claims

99.6

2000-2001

2001-2002

80.9

THOUSANDS

62.1

43.4

24.6

5.9

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

2000-2001 14,415 13,509 12,513 11,504 11,144 11,717 11,033 10,485 9,536 8,113 8,655 8,801

2001-2002 7,642 7,647 7,307 6,863 8,463 9,031 10,088 10,184 9,923 9,924 10,766 10,412

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

2000-2001 34,242 36,886 43,958 44,720 50,402 46,055 47,300 52,785 58,261 53,061 59,542 49,355

2001-2002 50,093 73,209 64,401 47,878 55,134 43,148 42,701 50,568 48,023 44,197 44,364 42,048

Continued Unemployment Claims

485.6

2000-2001

2001-2002

392.5

THOUSANDS

299.4

206.2

113.1

20.0

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

8 Georgia Economic Indicators / October 2002

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

2000-2001
151,634 181,147 165,718 164,512 211,730 196,795 185,827 258,887 242,095 251,027 282,298 263,622

2001-2002
272,945 370,414 324,446 360,381 316,501 326,290 299,206 388,590 308,224 306,589 309,959 285,241

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate *
5.9 2000-2001
5.2

2001-2002

PERCENTAGES

4.6

4.0

3.3

2.7

SO

NDJ

F M AM J

J

A

* Not Seasonally Adjusted

Insured Unemployment Rate

2.76

2000-2001

2001-2002

2.26

PERCENTAGES

1.76

1.26

0.76

0.26

SO

ND

J

F

MA MJ

J

A

Monthly Data
Not Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug

2000-2001
3.9 % 3.8 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.6 4.5 4.3 4.0

2001-2002
4.2 % 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.2 4.5 5.2 4.9 4.7

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug

2000-2001
0.95 % 0.94 1.03 1.21 1.19 1.23 1.29 1.35 1.48 1.56 1.73 1.64

2001-2002
1.72 % 1.92 2.03 2.09 2.22 2.04 2.05 2.09 1.97 1.90 1.71 1.77

New Motor Vehicle Sales

63

2000-2001

2001-2002

56

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month

2000-2001

2001-2002

THOUSANDS

Sep

45,375

49,277

50

Oct

45,510

49,573

Nov

44,190

48,849

Dec

37,137

37,638

Jan

52,597

46,262

43

Feb

42,961

41,086

M ar

47,370

44,279

Apr

46,979

48,167

37

M ay

48,748

48,946

Jun

43,724

41,558

Jul

47,397

49,514

30

Aug

49,695

50,365

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / October 2002 9

Georgia Economic Indicators

Residential Construction

10,277

2000-2001

9,388

2001-2002

HOUSEHOLD UNITS

8,499

7,609

6,720

5,831

SON

D

J

F MAM

J

J

A

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

2000-2001 7,590 7,110 7,265 7,293 8,434 7,897 7,192 7,566 8,313 9,129 8,400 7,768

2001-2002 6,920 7,370 6,928 6,997 7,711 7,698 8,118 8,138 9,273 8,459 9,432 6,795

Nonresidential Construction

$810

2000-2001

2001-2002

$672

$534

MILLIONS

$396

$258

$120

SOND

J

FMAM

J

J

A

Deflated Nonresidential Construction

$720

2000-2001

2001-2002

$591

$462

MILLIONS

$333

$204

$75

SON

D

J

FMAM

J

J

A

10 Georgia Economic Indicators / October 2002

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

2000-2001
$567,269,000 544,494,000 372,176,000 485,732,000 565,448,000 461,292,000 431,267,000 572,387,000 432,484,000 475,670,000 496,336,000 471,396,000

2001-2002
$529,509,000 512,544,000 619,902,000 323,839,000 501,561,000 525,956,000 265,245,000 495,148,000 424,528,000 490,410,000 504,031,000 336,173,000

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug

2000-2001
$489,446,900 467,778,400 318,916,900 414,801,000 479,599,700 389,934,100 363,631,500 482,213,100 363,431,900 398,050,200 415,691,800 393,814,500

2001-2002
$441,257,500 424,291,400 516,585,000 269,416,800 413,829,200 433,957,100 218,668,600 408,201,200 348,831,600 400,989,400 413,479,100 275,777,700

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators

New Business Corporations*

7,123

2000-2001

2001-2002

6,068

CHARTERS

5,014

3,959

2,905

1,850

S

O

N

D

Total State Revenues

$1,683

2000-2001

$1,466

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

* Includes limited liability companies

2001-2002

$1,250

MILLIONS

$1,033

$817

$600

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Ap r M ay Jun Jul Aug

2000-2001 4,271 4,654 4,806 4,611 4,859 4,544 5,039 4,513 4,718 4,721 4,442 5,605

2001-2002 4,161 4,742 2,931 3,039 5,348 5,085 5,617 4,129 6,090 4,521 5,202 5,024

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug

2000-2001
$1,135,949,000 1,181,132,000 1,132,895,000 1,133,560,000 1,342,191,000 1,124,170,000
926,149,000 989,987,000 1,428,144,000 1,226,480,000 1,062,372,000 1,099,959,000

2001-2002
$1,062,069,000 1,092,639,000 1,086,140,000 1,067,092,000 1,253,033,000 1,049,479,000
829,956,000 890,580,000 1,379,021,000 1,192,921,000 926,854,000 956,127,000

Deflated Total State Revenues

$940

2000-2001

2001-2002

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

MILLIONS

$823

Month

2000-2001

2001-2002

$706 $589 $472 $355

Sep

$653,971,800 $595,664,000

Oct

678,811,500

614,878,400

Nov

650,715,100

612,254,800

Dec

651,471,300

603,900,400

Jan

766,528,300

707,528,500

Feb

639,459,600

590,258,200

M ar

525,623,700

464,181,200

Apr

559,630,900

495,317,000

M ay

803,682,600

766,975,000

Jun

689,033,700

663,102,300

Jul

598,519,400

514,633,000

Aug

619,695,200

529,124,000

SON

D

J

F

MA M

J

J

A

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / October 2002 11

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