GEORGIA Economic Indicators A Monthly Report of Georgia State Labor Market and Economic Trends October 2002 Volume 8, Issue 8 Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner Georgia Economic Indicators Monthly Report August 2002 Data Volume 8, Issue 8 October 2002 Cover art: Piedmont College satellite campuses in Athens, Georgia by Huey J. Theus, Mableton, Georgia Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177. Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner Equal Opportunity Employer/Programs - Auxiliary Aids and Services Available Upon Request to Individuals With Disabilities Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / October 2002 Introduction G eorgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is designed to provide in a single publication data on a number of indicators used to measure movement of the state's economy. The indicators have been collected and disseminated for many years by state and federal governments and private agencies, but not under a single cover. Contributing agencies include Georgia's Department of Labor, Department of Revenue and Office of Secretary of State, the U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the F.W. Dodge Company. All data except those contained in the U.S. Consumer Price Index chart on Page 3 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data that have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars. Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually in February. The purpose of the publications is to serve the business and professional communities, economic developers, economists, educators and others who have need for information on state economic trends. Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning Georgia economic Indicators, Monthly Report and Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Bill Webb, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177. Data Sources Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Employment, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Retail Employment, Manufacturing Employment and Manufacturing Workweek -- Georgia Department of Labor Consumer Price Index -- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, adapted from commentary by Michael Wald New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group * Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center 2 Georgia Economic Indicators / October 2002 Georgia Department of Labor Consumer Price Index Chart is not seasonally adjusted YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC AVG CPI RATE 1986 109.6 109.3 108.8 108.6 108.9 109.5 109.5 109.7 110.2 110.3 110.4 110.5 109.6 1.1% 1987 111.2 111.6 112.1 112.7 113.1 113.5 113.8 114.4 115.0 115.3 115.4 115.4 113.6 4.4% 1988 115.7 116.0 116.5 117.1 117.5 118.0 118.5 119.0 119.8 120.2 120.3 120.5 118.3 4.4% 1989 121.1 121.6 122.3 123.1 123.8 124.1 124.4 124.6 125.0 125.0 125.9 126.1 124.0 4.6% 1990 127.4 128.0 128.7 128.9 129.2 129.9 130.4 131.6 132.7 133.5 133.8 133.8 130.7 6.1% 1991 134.6 134.8 135.0 135.2 135.6 136.0 136.2 136.6 137.2 137.4 137.8 137.9 136.2 3.1% 1992 138.1 138.6 139.3 139.5 139.7 140.2 140.5 140.9 141.3 141.9 142.0 141.9 140.3 2.9% 1993 142.6 143.1 143.6 144.0 144.2 144.4 144.4 144.8 145.1 145.7 145.8 145.8 144.5 2.7% 1994 146.2 146.7 147.2 147.4 147.5 148.0 148.4 149.0 149.4 149.5 149.7 149.7 148.2 2.7% 1995 150.3 150.9 151.4 151.9 152.2 152.5 152.5 152.9 153.2 153.7 153.6 153.5 152.4 2.5% 1996 154.4 154.9 155.7 156.3 156.6 156.7 157.0 157.3 157.8 158.3 158.6 158.6 156.9 3.3% 1997 159.1 159.6 160.0 160.2 160.1 160.3 160.5 160.8 161.2 161.6 161.5 161.3 160.5 1.7% 1998 161.6 161.9 162.2 162.5 162.8 163.0 163.2 163.4 163.6 164.0 164.0 163.9 163.0 1.6% 1999 164.3 164.5 165.0 166.2 166.2 166.2 166.7 167.1 167.9 168.2 168.3 168.3 166.6 2.7% 2000 168.7 169.7 171.1 171.2 171.3 172.3 172.6 172.8 173.7 174.0 174.1 174.0 172.1 3.4% 2001 175.1 175.8 176.2 176.9 177.7 178.0 177.5 177.5 178.3 177.7 177.4 176.7 177.1 1.6% 2002 177.1 177.8 178.8 179.8 179.8 179.9 180.1 180.7 Source: U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS AT WWW.BLS.GOV CPI accelerates in August The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in August, before seasonal adjustment, as recently reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. The August level of 180.7 (1982-84=100) was 1.8 percent higher than its level in August 2001. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U rose 0.3 percent in August, following increases of 0.1 percent in each of the preceding two months. Excluding food and energy, the CPIU rose 0.3 percent after increasing 0.2 percent in July. During the first eight months of 2002, the CPI-U rose at a 2.7 percent seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). This compares with an increase of 1.6 percent for all of 2001. The index for energy, which declined 13.0 percent in 2001, increased at a 13.5 percent SAAR in the first eight months of 2002. Petroleum-based energy costs increased at a 32.6 percent annual rate, while charges for energy services declined at a 0.9 percent annual rate. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U advanced at a 2.2 percent SAAR in the first eight months, following a 2.7 percent rise in all of 2001. The index for housing rose 0.3 percent in August. Shelter costs, which increased 0.2 percent in July, rose 0.4 percent in August. The index for fuels and utilities rose 0.3 percent in August. The indexes for fuel oil and for electricity increased 2.1 and 0.6 percent, respectively, while the index for natural gas declined 0.3 percent. The transportation index rose 0.4 percent in August. The index for gasoline increased for the third consecutive month, up 0.5 percent in August. The index for new vehicles declined 0.1 percent in August. The index for used cars and trucks rose 0.5 percent in August. Airline fares were virtually unchanged in August and have decreased 3.8 percent in the last 12 months. The index for apparel increased 1.1 percent in August, following a 1.0 percent decrease in July. Prior to seasonal adjustment, fuel oil prices rose 0.7 percent, charges for electricity were unchanged, and charges for natural gas fell 0.2 percent. The medical care index rose 0.2 percent in August to a level 4.7 percent above its level a year ago. The index for medical care commodities increased 0.2 percent. The index for medical care services also rose 0.2 percent in August. Charges for professional services were virtually unchanged, while those for hospital and related services increased 0.7 percent. Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / October 2002 3 Georgia Index of Economic Indicators 207.5 Leading indicators Coincident indicators 180.9 154.3 127.6 101.0 1987-88 = 100 74.4 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 Georgia's Economic Indicators remain unchanged in August Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted. *** The Georgia Department of Labor's Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) was unchanged in August matching July's upwardly revised 178.9, after seasonal adjustment. The leading indicator, which reflects activity that will impact the economy three to six months into the future remained stable this reporting period. Lower initial jobless claims (down 5.2 percent), higher weekly manufacturing hours worked ( up 2.9 percent) and modest sales of new motor vehicles (up 1.7 percent) offset declines in the residential and commercial construction sectors. Residential construction, which is a vital part of this economic recovery, hit a snag in August. Permits for residential homes Recent 12 Months 187.6 Leading Coincident 180.2 172.7 165.2 157.7 1987-88 =100 150.2 SOND J FMAM J J A plummeted 27.9 percent in August, the largest one month decline in over 2 years. Soft demand for commercial projects continue to hammer the nonresidential construction sector (down 33.3 percent in August). The Index of Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI), which measures current economic conditions, remained unchanged in August. After July's CEI index was revised downward the readings for the two months settled at 158.7, after seasonal adjustment. The coincident index displayed mixed single digit movements in multiple sectors, which offset each other. Georgia's unemployment rate declined to 4.7 percent during the month. State tax revenue increased (3.1 percent) in August, ending a three month decline. Nonagricultural and retail employment declined in August, down 0.3 and 0.5 percent, respectively. 4 Georgia Economic Indicators / October 2002 Georgia Department of Labor Data Summary August 2002 Georgia Economic Indicators Seasonally Adjusted Aug 2002 Jul 2002 Aug 2001 Percent Change Jul 2002 to Aug 2002 Percent Change Aug 2001 to Aug 2002 Nonagricultural Employment 3,854,452 3,869,148 3,945,137 -0.38 -2.30 Retail Employment 696,269 700,238 713,207 -0.57 -2.37 Manufacturing Employment 536,434 536,643 543,104 -0.04 -1.23 Manufacturing Workweek 43.7 42.4 41.3 2.99 5.59 Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $565.80 $550.42 $536.72 2.79 5.42 Deflated Manufacturing Earnings $313.12 $305.62 $302.38 2.45 3.55 Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled 10,412 10,766 8,801 -3.29 18.30 Initial Unemployment Claims 42,048 44,364 49,355 -5.22 -14.80 Continued Unemployment Claims 285,241 309,959 263,622 -7.97 8.20 Unemployment Rate (not seasonally adjusted) 4.7% 4.9% 4.0% Insured Unemployment Rate 1.77% 1.71% 1.64% New Motor Vehicle Sales 50,365 49,514 49,695 1.72 1.35 Residential Construction (building permits) 6,795 9,432 7,768 -27.95 -12.52 Nonresidential Construction (dollar value) $336,173,000 $504,031,000 $471,396,000 -33.30 -28.69 Deflated Nonresidential Construction $275,777,700 $413,479,100 $393,814,500 -33.30 -29.97 New Business Corporations 5,024 5,202 5,605 -3.42 -10.38 Total State Revenues $956,127,000 $926,854,000 $1,099,959,000 3.16 -13.08 Deflated Total State Revenues $529,124,000 $514,633,000 $619,695,200 2.82 -14.62 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / October 2002 5 Georgia Economic Indicators Nonagricultural Employment 4.03 2000-2001 2001-2002 3.99 3.94 3.90 3.85 3.81 SO NDJ FMAMJ J A Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug 2000-2001 3,970,521 3,971,120 3,973,532 3,979,488 3,969,680 3,977,192 3,983,939 3,982,787 3,974,909 3,971,332 3,960,068 3,945,137 2001-2002 3,935,987 3,942,193 3,906,082 3,892,867 3,872,285 3,880,687 3,873,452 3,889,756 3,887,840 3,880,325 3,869,148 3,854,452 MILLIONS Retail Employment 729.8 2000-2001 721.3 2001-2002 712.7 THOUSANDS 704.1 695.6 687.0 SO ND J F MAM J J A Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug 2000-2001 716,140 716,184 719,345 721,436 718,082 717,582 719,611 720,263 720,417 718,372 713,422 713,207 2001-2002 711,789 717,621 712,091 711,426 706,291 702,564 700,432 708,212 701,508 696,824 700,238 696,269 Manufacturing Employment 605 2000-2001 2001-2002 587 569 THOUSANDS 551 533 515 SO ND J F MAMJ J A 6 Georgia Economic Indicators / October 2002 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 2000-2001 579,493 576,410 574,233 572,476 568,517 565,865 563,555 556,407 551,136 547,482 547,243 543,104 2001-2002 541,888 541,929 533,672 538,342 537,895 539,768 535,800 537,020 538,761 540,368 536,643 536,434 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators Manufacturing Workweek 45.2 2000-2001 2001-2002 43.7 42.3 HOURS 40.8 39.4 37.9 S O N D J F MA M J J A Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 2000-2001 41.1 41.3 41.2 41.1 41.0 40.4 40.5 39.2 40.2 40.5 40.6 41.3 2001-2002 41.2 40.6 40.6 40.3 42.8 41.8 42.9 43.0 43.1 43.4 42.4 43.7 Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $584 2000-2001 2001-2002 $567 DOLLARS $549 $532 $515 $498 SON D J FM AM J J A Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 2000-2001 $538.92 545.68 547.03 538.96 533.25 530.49 529.46 513.66 524.54 532.20 531.66 536.72 2001-2002 $537.84 526.74 523.65 526.39 555.99 558.71 564.83 558.04 559.24 563.70 550.42 565.80 Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $329 $319 2000-2001 2001-2002 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month 2000-2001 2001-2002 DOLLARS Sep $310.26 $301.65 $309 Oct 313.61 296.42 Nov 314.20 295.18 $299 $289 $279 Dec 309.75 297.90 Jan 304.54 313.94 Feb 301.76 314.24 Mar 300.49 315.90 Apr 290.37 310.37 May 295.18 311.03 Jun 298.99 313.34 Jul 299.53 305.62 Aug 302.38 313.12 SON D J FM AM J J A Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / October 2002 7 Georgia Economic Indicators Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled* 22.6 2000-2001 2001-2002 18.3 THOUSANDS 14.0 9.8 5.5 1.2 S O N D J F M A M J J A * Jobs listed with the Georgia Department of Labor Initial Unemployment Claims 99.6 2000-2001 2001-2002 80.9 THOUSANDS 62.1 43.4 24.6 5.9 S O N D J F M A M J J A Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 2000-2001 14,415 13,509 12,513 11,504 11,144 11,717 11,033 10,485 9,536 8,113 8,655 8,801 2001-2002 7,642 7,647 7,307 6,863 8,463 9,031 10,088 10,184 9,923 9,924 10,766 10,412 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 2000-2001 34,242 36,886 43,958 44,720 50,402 46,055 47,300 52,785 58,261 53,061 59,542 49,355 2001-2002 50,093 73,209 64,401 47,878 55,134 43,148 42,701 50,568 48,023 44,197 44,364 42,048 Continued Unemployment Claims 485.6 2000-2001 2001-2002 392.5 THOUSANDS 299.4 206.2 113.1 20.0 S O N D J F M A M J J A 8 Georgia Economic Indicators / October 2002 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 2000-2001 151,634 181,147 165,718 164,512 211,730 196,795 185,827 258,887 242,095 251,027 282,298 263,622 2001-2002 272,945 370,414 324,446 360,381 316,501 326,290 299,206 388,590 308,224 306,589 309,959 285,241 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate * 5.9 2000-2001 5.2 2001-2002 PERCENTAGES 4.6 4.0 3.3 2.7 SO NDJ F M AM J J A * Not Seasonally Adjusted Insured Unemployment Rate 2.76 2000-2001 2001-2002 2.26 PERCENTAGES 1.76 1.26 0.76 0.26 SO ND J F MA MJ J A Monthly Data Not Seasonally Adjusted Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug 2000-2001 3.9 % 3.8 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.6 4.5 4.3 4.0 2001-2002 4.2 % 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.2 4.5 5.2 4.9 4.7 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug 2000-2001 0.95 % 0.94 1.03 1.21 1.19 1.23 1.29 1.35 1.48 1.56 1.73 1.64 2001-2002 1.72 % 1.92 2.03 2.09 2.22 2.04 2.05 2.09 1.97 1.90 1.71 1.77 New Motor Vehicle Sales 63 2000-2001 2001-2002 56 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month 2000-2001 2001-2002 THOUSANDS Sep 45,375 49,277 50 Oct 45,510 49,573 Nov 44,190 48,849 Dec 37,137 37,638 Jan 52,597 46,262 43 Feb 42,961 41,086 M ar 47,370 44,279 Apr 46,979 48,167 37 M ay 48,748 48,946 Jun 43,724 41,558 Jul 47,397 49,514 30 Aug 49,695 50,365 S O N D J F M A M J J A Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / October 2002 9 Georgia Economic Indicators Residential Construction 10,277 2000-2001 9,388 2001-2002 HOUSEHOLD UNITS 8,499 7,609 6,720 5,831 SON D J F MAM J J A Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 2000-2001 7,590 7,110 7,265 7,293 8,434 7,897 7,192 7,566 8,313 9,129 8,400 7,768 2001-2002 6,920 7,370 6,928 6,997 7,711 7,698 8,118 8,138 9,273 8,459 9,432 6,795 Nonresidential Construction $810 2000-2001 2001-2002 $672 $534 MILLIONS $396 $258 $120 SOND J FMAM J J A Deflated Nonresidential Construction $720 2000-2001 2001-2002 $591 $462 MILLIONS $333 $204 $75 SON D J FMAM J J A 10 Georgia Economic Indicators / October 2002 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 2000-2001 $567,269,000 544,494,000 372,176,000 485,732,000 565,448,000 461,292,000 431,267,000 572,387,000 432,484,000 475,670,000 496,336,000 471,396,000 2001-2002 $529,509,000 512,544,000 619,902,000 323,839,000 501,561,000 525,956,000 265,245,000 495,148,000 424,528,000 490,410,000 504,031,000 336,173,000 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug 2000-2001 $489,446,900 467,778,400 318,916,900 414,801,000 479,599,700 389,934,100 363,631,500 482,213,100 363,431,900 398,050,200 415,691,800 393,814,500 2001-2002 $441,257,500 424,291,400 516,585,000 269,416,800 413,829,200 433,957,100 218,668,600 408,201,200 348,831,600 400,989,400 413,479,100 275,777,700 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators New Business Corporations* 7,123 2000-2001 2001-2002 6,068 CHARTERS 5,014 3,959 2,905 1,850 S O N D Total State Revenues $1,683 2000-2001 $1,466 J F M A M J J A * Includes limited liability companies 2001-2002 $1,250 MILLIONS $1,033 $817 $600 S O N D J F M A M J J A Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Ap r M ay Jun Jul Aug 2000-2001 4,271 4,654 4,806 4,611 4,859 4,544 5,039 4,513 4,718 4,721 4,442 5,605 2001-2002 4,161 4,742 2,931 3,039 5,348 5,085 5,617 4,129 6,090 4,521 5,202 5,024 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug 2000-2001 $1,135,949,000 1,181,132,000 1,132,895,000 1,133,560,000 1,342,191,000 1,124,170,000 926,149,000 989,987,000 1,428,144,000 1,226,480,000 1,062,372,000 1,099,959,000 2001-2002 $1,062,069,000 1,092,639,000 1,086,140,000 1,067,092,000 1,253,033,000 1,049,479,000 829,956,000 890,580,000 1,379,021,000 1,192,921,000 926,854,000 956,127,000 Deflated Total State Revenues $940 2000-2001 2001-2002 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted MILLIONS $823 Month 2000-2001 2001-2002 $706 $589 $472 $355 Sep $653,971,800 $595,664,000 Oct 678,811,500 614,878,400 Nov 650,715,100 612,254,800 Dec 651,471,300 603,900,400 Jan 766,528,300 707,528,500 Feb 639,459,600 590,258,200 M ar 525,623,700 464,181,200 Apr 559,630,900 495,317,000 M ay 803,682,600 766,975,000 Jun 689,033,700 663,102,300 Jul 598,519,400 514,633,000 Aug 619,695,200 529,124,000 SON D J F MA M J J A Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / October 2002 11 To receive a free subscription to this publication, please complete and mail this form Mail to: If you prefer, you may e-mail your request to bill.webb@dol.state.ga.us Bill Webb Workforce Information and Analysis Georgia Department of Labor 148 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