Georgia economic indicators, monthly report [Vol. 8, no. 6 (Aug. 2002)]

GEORGIA

Economic

Indicators

A Monthly Report of Georgia State Labor Market and Economic Trends

August 2002

Volume 8, Issue 6

Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner

Georgia Economic Indicators
Monthly Report June 2002 Data
Volume 8, Issue 6 August 2002

Cover art: Tybee Island Lighthouse, Georgia by Huey J. Theus, Mableton, Georgia
Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177.
Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us

Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner

Equal Opportunity Employer/Programs - Auxiliary Aids and Services Available Upon Request to Individuals With Disabilities

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2002

Introduction

G eorgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is designed to provide in a single publication data on a
number of indicators used to measure movement of the state's economy.
The indicators have been collected and disseminated for many years by state and federal governments and private agencies, but not under a single cover. Contributing agencies include Georgia's Department of Labor, Department of Revenue and Office of Secretary of State, the U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the F.W. Dodge Company.
All data except those contained in the U.S. Consumer Price Index chart on Page 3 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data that have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars.
Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually in February.
The purpose of the publications is to serve the business and professional communities, economic developers, economists, educators and others who have need for information on state economic trends.

Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning Georgia economic Indicators, Monthly Report and Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Bill Webb, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177.

Data Sources

Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Employment, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Retail Employment, Manufacturing Employment and Manufacturing Workweek -- Georgia Department of Labor
Consumer Price Index -- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, adapted from commentary by Michael Wald
New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue
New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State
Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce
Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group
* Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center

2 Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2002

Georgia Department of Labor

Consumer Price Index

YEAR 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

JAN
109.6 111.2 115.7 121.1 127.4 134.6 138.1 142.6 146.2 150.3 154.4 159.1 161.6 164.3 168.7 175.1 177.1

FEB
109.3 111.6 116.0 121.6 128.0 134.8 138.6 143.1 146.7 150.9 154.9 159.6 161.9 164.5 169.7 175.8 177.8

MAR
108.8 112.1 116.5 122.3 128.7 135.0 139.3 143.6 147.2 151.4 155.7 160.0 162.2 165.0 171.1 176.2 178.8

APR MAY
108.6 108.9 112.7 113.1 117.1 117.5 123.1 123.8 128.9 129.2 135.2 135.6 139.5 139.7 144.0 144.2 147.4 147.5 151.9 152.2 156.3 156.6 160.2 160.1 162.5 162.8 166.2 166.2 171.2 171.3 176.9 177.7 179.8 179.8

JUN
109.5 113.5 118.0 124.1 129.9 136.0 140.2 144.4 148.0 152.5 156.7 160.3 163.0 166.2 172.3 178.0 179.9

JUL AUG
109.5 109.7 113.8 114.4 118.5 119.0 124.4 124.6 130.4 131.6 136.2 136.6 140.5 140.9 144.4 144.8 148.4 149.0 152.5 152.9 157.0 157.3 160.5 160.8 163.2 163.4 166.7 167.1 172.6 172.8 177.5 177.5

SEP
110.2 115.0 119.8 125.0 132.7 137.2 141.3 145.1 149.4 153.2 157.8 161.2 163.6 167.9 173.7 178.3

OCT
110.3 115.3 120.2 125.0 133.5 137.4 141.9 145.7 149.5 153.7 158.3 161.6 164.0 168.2 174.0 177.7

Chart is not seasonally adjusted

NOV DEC AVG

CPI RATE

110.4 110.5 109.6

1.1%

115.4 115.4 113.6

4.4%

120.3 120.5 118.3

4.4%

125.9 126.1 124.0

4.6%

133.8 133.8 130.7

6.1%

137.8 137.9 136.2

3.1%

142.0 141.9 140.3

2.9%

145.8 145.8 144.5

2.7%

149.7 149.7 148.2

2.7%

153.6 153.5 152.4

2.5%

158.6 158.6 156.9

3.3%

161.5 161.3 160.5

1.7%

164.0 163.9 163.0

1.6%

168.3 168.3 166.6

2.7%

174.1 174.0 172.1

3.4%

177.4 176.7 177.1

1.6%

U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS

Inflation remains low in first half of 2002

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in June, before seasonal adjustment, as recently reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. The June level of 179.9 (1982-84=100) was 1.1 percent higher than its level in June 2001.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) also rose 0.1 percent in June, prior to seasonal adjustment. The June level of 175.9 was 0.7 percent higher than the index in June 2001. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U increased 0.1 percent in June after registering no change in May.
Consumer prices increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 2.5 percent in the second quarter after advancing at a 3.0 percent rate in the first three months of 2002. This brings the year-to-date annual rate to 2.7 percent and compares with an increase of 1.6 percent in all of 2001.

The CPI-U, excluding food and energy, advanced at a 1.9 percent SAAR in the second quarter, following an increase of 2.1 percent in the first three months of 2002. The advance at a 2.0 percent SAAR for the first half of 2002 compares with a 2.7 percent rise in all of 2001.
The index for housing rose 0.1 percent in June. Shelter costs, which increased 0.2 percent in May, rose 0.1 percent in June. The index for fuels and utilities declined 0.1 percent in June, reflecting a 1.1 percent drop in the index for natural gas. The indexes for fuel oil and for electricity rose 0.7 and 0.1 percent, respectively. The index for household furnishings and operations turned down in June, declining 0.3 percent.
The transportation index rose 0.1 percent in June, following a 0.4 percent decline in May, reflecting the movement in the gasoline index. The index for gasoline rose 0.4 percent in June, following a 2.8 percent decline in May.

The index for new vehicles declined for the sixth consecutive month, down 0.1 percent. The index for used cars and trucks rose 0.1 percent in June, registering its first increase in six months. Airline fares, which had advanced in each of the first five months of 2002 after declining in each of the last six months of 2001, fell 0.6 percent in June. During the last 12 months, the index for airline fares has decreased 4.5 percent.
The index for apparel declined 0.9 percent in June, following a 0.6 percent drop in May. The medical care index rose 0.2 percent in June to a level 4.5 percent above its level a year ago. The index for medical care commodities increased 0.3 percent. The index for medical care services rose 0.2 percent in June. Charges for professional services rose 0.1 percent and those for hospital and related services increased 0.3 percent.

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2002 3

Georgia Index of Economic Indicators

197.7

Leading indicators Coincident indicators

173.0

148.3

123.7

99.0
1987-88 = 100

74.4

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

Indicators attempt to recover during first half of year

Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted.
***
The Georgia Department of Labor's Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) increased 0.2 percent in June to 177.7 from a revised 177.2 in May, after seasonal adjustment. The index has grown 1.5 percent since January 2002 compared to 0.2 percent for the same period in 2001.
The reduction in jobless claims along with an increase in the value of commercial construction moved the lead indicator into positive territory in June. Initial unemployment claims dropped for the second consecutive month, down 7.8 percent in June, after decreasing 5.0 percent in May. The value of nonresidential construction increased in June, up 15.5 percent, after a double digit drop in value the previous month.

Recent 12 Months

184.7

Leading Coincident

177.8

170.9

164.0

157.1

1987-88 =100

150.2 J ASOND J F MAM J

Other sectors of the leading indicator contracted in June. New business corporations filed with the Secretary of State ended the month down 25.7 percent, reversing May's 47.4 percent surge. Sales of new motor vehicles plummeted 15.0 percent in June.

The index of Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI) decreased 0.8 percent in June to 159.3, from a revised 160.7 in May, after seasonal adjustment.
The decline in the coincident index was due to a reduction in state tax revenue coupled with an increase in the state's jobless rate. Tax revenue collected by the state declined 13.5 percent in June, after surging 54.8 percent in May.
Georgia's unemployment rate increased to 5.2 percent, before seasonal adjustment, up from 4.5 percent the previous month. The nation's jobless rate increased to 6.0 percent, prior to any seasonal adjustments. Retail employment ended the month down 0.8 percent.

4 Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2002

Georgia Department of Labor

Data Summary

June 2002

Georgia Economic Indicators
Seasonally Adjusted

Jun 2002

May 2002

Jun 2001

Percent Change
May 2002 to
Jun 2002

Percent Change
Jun 2001 to
Jun 2002

Nonagricultural Employment

3,884,308

3,887,840

3,971,332

-0.09

-2.19

Retail Employment

695,729

701,508

718,372

-0.82

-3.15

Manufacturing Employment

541,465

538,761

547,482

0.50

-1.10

Manufacturing Workweek

43.2

43.1

40.5

0.30

6.65

Weekly Manufacturing Earnings

$559.38

$559.24

$532.20

0.03

5.11

Deflated Manufacturing Earnings

$310.94

$311.03

$298.99

-0.03

4.00

Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled

9,924

9,923

8,113

0.02

22.33

Initial Unemployment Claims

44,197

48,023

53,061

-7.97 -16.71

Continued Unemployment Claims

306,589

308,224

251,027

-0.53

22.13

Unemployment Rate (not seasonally adjusted)

5.2%

4.5%

4.5%

Insured Unemployment Rate

1.90%

1.97%

1.56%

New Motor Vehicle Sales

41,558

48,946

43,724

-15.09

-4.95

Residential Construction (building permits)

8,459

9,273

9,129

-8.79

-7.34

Nonresidential Construction (dollar value) $490,410,000 $424,528,000 $475,670,000

15.52

3.10

Deflated Nonresidential Construction $400,334,700 $348,259,200 $398,050,200

14.95

0.57

New Business Corporations

4,521

6,090

4,721

-25.76

-4.24

Total State Revenues

$1,192,921,000 $1,379,021,000 $1,226,480,000

-13.50

-2.74

Deflated Total State Revenues

$663,102,300 $766,975,000 $689,033,700

-13.54

-3.76

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2002 5

Georgia Economic Indicators

Nonagricultural Employment

4.04

2000-2001

2001-2002

3.99

3.95

3.91

3.86

3.82 J A SOND J FMA MJ

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun

2000-2001
3,956,277 3,968,522 3,970,521 3,971,120 3,973,532 3,979,488 3,969,680 3,977,192 3,983,939 3,982,787 3,974,909 3,971,332

2001-2002
3,960,068 3,945,137 3,935,987 3,942,193 3,906,082 3,892,867 3,872,285 3,880,687 3,873,452 3,889,756 3,887,840 3,884,308

MILLIONS

Retail Employment
729.8 2000-2001
721.3

2001-2002

712.7

THOUSANDS

704.1

695.6

687.0

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

Manufacturing Employment

605

2000-2001

2001-2002

587

569

THOUSANDS

551

533

515 J A SO ND J F MAMJ
6 Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2002

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun

2000-2001
714,963 716,620 716,140 716,184 719,345 721,436 718,082 717,582 719,611 720,263 720,417 718,372

2001-2002
713,422 713,207 711,789 717,621 712,091 711,426 706,291 702,564 700,432 708,212 701,508 695,729

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

2000-2001
582,865 582,507 579,493 576,410 574,233 572,476 568,517 565,865 563,555 556,407 551,136 547,482

2001-2002
547,243 543,104 541,888 541,929 533,672 538,342 537,895 539,768 535,800 537,020 538,761 541,465

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators

Manufacturing Workweek

44.6

2000-2001

2001-2002

43.3

41.9

HOURS

40.6

39.2

37.9

J

A

SO

ND

J

F

MA

M

J

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

2000-2001
41.3 41.2 41.1 41.3 41.2 41.1 41.0 40.4 40.5 39.2 40.2 40.5

2001-2002
40.6 41.3 41.2 40.6 40.6 40.3 42.8 41.8 42.9 43.0 43.1 43.2

Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings

$584

2000-2001

2001-2002

$567

DOLLARS

$549

$532

$515

$498

J

A

S

ON

D

J

FMAM

J

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

2000-2001
$534.27 538.17 538.92 545.68 547.03 538.96 533.25 530.49 529.46 513.66 524.54 532.20

2001-2002
$531.66 536.72 537.84 526.74 523.65 526.39 555.99 558.71 564.83 558.04 559.24 559.38

Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings

$329 $319

2000-2001

2001-2002

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month 2000-2001

2001-2002

DOLLARS

Jul

$309.54

$299.53

$309

Aug

311.44

302.38

Sep

310.26

301.65

$299 $289 $279

Oct

313.61

296.42

Nov

314.20

295.18

Dec

309.75

297.90

Jan

304.54

313.94

Feb

301.76

314.24

Mar

300.49

315.90

Apr

290.37

310.37

May

295.18

311.03

Jun

298.99

310.94

J

A

S

ON

D

J

FMAM

J

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2002

7

Georgia Economic Indicators

Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled*

22.6

2000-2001

2001-2002

18.3

THOUSANDS

14.0

9.8

5.5

1.2

J

A

SO

N

D

J

F

MA

M

J

* Jobs listed with the Georgia Department of Labor

Initial Unemployment Claims

99.6

2000-2001

2001-2002

80.9

THOUSANDS

62.1

43.4

24.6

5.9

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

MAM

J

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

2000-2001 16,416 16,105 14,415 13,509 12,513 11,504 11,144 11,717 11,033 10,485 9,536 8,113

2001-2002 8,655 8,801 7,642 7,647 7,307 6,863 8,463 9,031 10,088 10,184 9,923 9,924

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

2000-2001 31,766 33,237 34,242 36,886 43,958 44,720 50,402 46,055 47,300 52,785 58,261 53,061

2001-2002 59,542 49,355 50,093 73,209 64,401 47,878 55,134 43,148 42,701 50,568 48,023 44,197

Continued Unemployment Claims

485.6

2000-2001

2001-2002

392.5

THOUSANDS

299.4

206.2

113.1

20.0

J

A

SO

N

D

J

F

MA

M

J

8 Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2002

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

2000-2001
151,158 148,693 151,634 181,147 165,718 164,512 211,730 196,795 185,827 258,887 242,095 251,027

2001-2002
282,298 263,622 272,945 370,414 324,446 360,381 316,501 326,290 299,206 388,590 308,224 306,589

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate *
5.9 2000-2001
5.2

2001-2002

PERCENTAGES

4.6

4.0

3.3

2.7
J A SO ND J F MAM J * Not Seasonally Adjusted

Insured Unemployment Rate

2.76

2000-2001

2001-2002

2.26

PERCENTAGES

1.76

1.26

0.76

0.26

J

A

SO

N

D

J

F

MA

M

J

Monthly Data
Not Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun

2000-2001
4.0 % 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.6 4.5

2001-2002
4.3 % 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.2 4.5 5.2

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun

2000-2001
0.91 % 0.97 0.95 0.94 1.03 1.21 1.19 1.23 1.29 1.35 1.48 1.56

2001-2002
1.73 % 1.64 1.72 1.92 2.03 2.09 2.22 2.04 2.05 2.09 1.97 1.90

New Motor Vehicle Sales

63

2000-2001

2001-2002

56

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month

2000-2001

2001-2002

THOUSANDS

Jul

48,402

47,397

50

Aug

53,062

49,695

Sep

45,375

49,277

Oct

45,510

49,573

Nov

44,190

48,849

43

Dec

37,137

37,638

Jan

52,597

46,262

Feb

42,961

41,086

37

M ar

47,370

44,279

Apr

46,979

48,167

M ay

48,748

48,946

30

Jun

43,724

41,558

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2002 9

Georgia Economic Indicators

Residential Construction

10,277

2000-2001

9,388

2001-2002

HOUSEHOLD UNITS

8,499

7,609

6,720

5,831

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

2000-2001 7,637 7,442 7,590 7,110 7,265 7,293 8,434 7,897 7,192 7,566 8,313 9,129

2001-2002 8,400 7,768 6,920 7,370 6,928 6,997 7,711 7,698 8,118 8,138 9,273 8,459

Nonresidential Construction

$810

2000-2001

2001-2002

$672

$534

MILLIONS

$396

$258

$120

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

MA

M

J

Deflated Nonresidential Construction

$720

2000-2001

2001-2002

$591

$462

MILLIONS

$333

$204

$75

J

A

SON

D

J

F

MA

M

J

10 Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2002

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

2000-2001
$384,390,000 405,932,000 567,269,000 544,494,000 372,176,000 485,732,000 565,448,000 461,292,000 431,267,000 572,387,000 432,484,000 475,670,000

2001-2002
$496,336,000 471,396,000 529,509,000 512,544,000 619,902,000 323,839,000 501,561,000 525,956,000 265,245,000 495,148,000 424,528,000 490,410,000

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun

2000-2001
$332,517,300 350,545,800 489,446,900 467,778,400 318,916,900 414,801,000 479,599,700 389,934,100 363,631,500 482,213,100 363,431,900 398,050,200

2001-2002
$415,691,800 393,814,500 441,257,500 424,291,400 516,585,000 269,416,800 413,829,200 433,957,100 218,668,600 407,864,900 348,259,200 400,334,700

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators

New Business Corporations*

7,123

2000-2001

2001-2002

6,068

CHARTERS

5,014

3,959

2,905

1,850

J

A

S

O

Total State Revenues

$1,683

2000-2001

$1,466

ND 2001-2002

J

F

MA

M

J

* Includes limited liability companies

$1,250

MILLIONS

$1,033

$817

$600

J

A

SO

N

D

J

F

MA

M

J

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Ap r M ay Jun

2000-2001 4,128 4,858 4,271 4,654 4,806 4,611 4,859 4,544 5,039 4,513 4,718 4,721

2001-2002 4,442 5,605 4,161 4,742 2,931 3,039 5,348 5,085 5,617 4,129 6,090 4,521

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun

2000-2001
$1,125,837,000 1,180,082,000 1,135,949,000 1,181,132,000 1,132,895,000 1,133,560,000 1,342,191,000 1,124,170,000
926,149,000 989,987,000 1,428,144,000 1,226,480,000

2001-2002
$1,062,372,000 1,099,959,000 1,062,069,000 1,092,639,000 1,086,140,000 1,067,092,000 1,253,033,000 1,049,479,000
829,956,000 890,580,000 1,379,021,000 1,192,921,000

Deflated Total State Revenues

$940

2000-2001

2001-2002

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

MILLIONS

$823

Month

2000-2001

2001-2002

$706 $589 $472 $355

Jul

$652,281,000 $598,519,400

Aug

682,917,800

619,695,200

Sep

653,971,800

595,664,000

Oct

678,811,500

614,878,400

Nov

650,715,100

612,254,800

Dec

651,471,300

603,900,400

Jan

766,528,300

707,528,500

Feb

639,459,600

590,258,200

M ar

525,623,700

464,181,200

Apr

559,630,900

495,317,000

M ay

803,682,600

766,975,000

Jun

689,033,700

663,102,300

J

A

S

O

ND

J

F

M

AM

J

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2002

11

To receive a free subscription to this publication, please complete and mail this form

Mail to:

If you prefer, you may e-mail your request to bill.webb@dol.state.ga.us
Bill Webb Workforce Information and Analysis Georgia Department of Labor 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E. Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751

Please add my name to the mailing list for Georgia Economic Indicators.

Name Company / Agency Address City

State

Zip Code