GEORGIA Economic Indicators A Monthly Report of Georgia State Labor Market and Economic Trends August 2002 Volume 8, Issue 6 Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner Georgia Economic Indicators Monthly Report June 2002 Data Volume 8, Issue 6 August 2002 Cover art: Tybee Island Lighthouse, Georgia by Huey J. Theus, Mableton, Georgia Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177. Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner Equal Opportunity Employer/Programs - Auxiliary Aids and Services Available Upon Request to Individuals With Disabilities Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2002 Introduction G eorgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is designed to provide in a single publication data on a number of indicators used to measure movement of the state's economy. The indicators have been collected and disseminated for many years by state and federal governments and private agencies, but not under a single cover. Contributing agencies include Georgia's Department of Labor, Department of Revenue and Office of Secretary of State, the U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the F.W. Dodge Company. All data except those contained in the U.S. Consumer Price Index chart on Page 3 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data that have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars. Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually in February. The purpose of the publications is to serve the business and professional communities, economic developers, economists, educators and others who have need for information on state economic trends. Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning Georgia economic Indicators, Monthly Report and Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Bill Webb, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177. Data Sources Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Employment, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Retail Employment, Manufacturing Employment and Manufacturing Workweek -- Georgia Department of Labor Consumer Price Index -- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, adapted from commentary by Michael Wald New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group * Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center 2 Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2002 Georgia Department of Labor Consumer Price Index YEAR 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 JAN 109.6 111.2 115.7 121.1 127.4 134.6 138.1 142.6 146.2 150.3 154.4 159.1 161.6 164.3 168.7 175.1 177.1 FEB 109.3 111.6 116.0 121.6 128.0 134.8 138.6 143.1 146.7 150.9 154.9 159.6 161.9 164.5 169.7 175.8 177.8 MAR 108.8 112.1 116.5 122.3 128.7 135.0 139.3 143.6 147.2 151.4 155.7 160.0 162.2 165.0 171.1 176.2 178.8 APR MAY 108.6 108.9 112.7 113.1 117.1 117.5 123.1 123.8 128.9 129.2 135.2 135.6 139.5 139.7 144.0 144.2 147.4 147.5 151.9 152.2 156.3 156.6 160.2 160.1 162.5 162.8 166.2 166.2 171.2 171.3 176.9 177.7 179.8 179.8 JUN 109.5 113.5 118.0 124.1 129.9 136.0 140.2 144.4 148.0 152.5 156.7 160.3 163.0 166.2 172.3 178.0 179.9 JUL AUG 109.5 109.7 113.8 114.4 118.5 119.0 124.4 124.6 130.4 131.6 136.2 136.6 140.5 140.9 144.4 144.8 148.4 149.0 152.5 152.9 157.0 157.3 160.5 160.8 163.2 163.4 166.7 167.1 172.6 172.8 177.5 177.5 SEP 110.2 115.0 119.8 125.0 132.7 137.2 141.3 145.1 149.4 153.2 157.8 161.2 163.6 167.9 173.7 178.3 OCT 110.3 115.3 120.2 125.0 133.5 137.4 141.9 145.7 149.5 153.7 158.3 161.6 164.0 168.2 174.0 177.7 Chart is not seasonally adjusted NOV DEC AVG CPI RATE 110.4 110.5 109.6 1.1% 115.4 115.4 113.6 4.4% 120.3 120.5 118.3 4.4% 125.9 126.1 124.0 4.6% 133.8 133.8 130.7 6.1% 137.8 137.9 136.2 3.1% 142.0 141.9 140.3 2.9% 145.8 145.8 144.5 2.7% 149.7 149.7 148.2 2.7% 153.6 153.5 152.4 2.5% 158.6 158.6 156.9 3.3% 161.5 161.3 160.5 1.7% 164.0 163.9 163.0 1.6% 168.3 168.3 166.6 2.7% 174.1 174.0 172.1 3.4% 177.4 176.7 177.1 1.6% U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS Inflation remains low in first half of 2002 The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in June, before seasonal adjustment, as recently reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. The June level of 179.9 (1982-84=100) was 1.1 percent higher than its level in June 2001. The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) also rose 0.1 percent in June, prior to seasonal adjustment. The June level of 175.9 was 0.7 percent higher than the index in June 2001. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U increased 0.1 percent in June after registering no change in May. Consumer prices increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 2.5 percent in the second quarter after advancing at a 3.0 percent rate in the first three months of 2002. This brings the year-to-date annual rate to 2.7 percent and compares with an increase of 1.6 percent in all of 2001. The CPI-U, excluding food and energy, advanced at a 1.9 percent SAAR in the second quarter, following an increase of 2.1 percent in the first three months of 2002. The advance at a 2.0 percent SAAR for the first half of 2002 compares with a 2.7 percent rise in all of 2001. The index for housing rose 0.1 percent in June. Shelter costs, which increased 0.2 percent in May, rose 0.1 percent in June. The index for fuels and utilities declined 0.1 percent in June, reflecting a 1.1 percent drop in the index for natural gas. The indexes for fuel oil and for electricity rose 0.7 and 0.1 percent, respectively. The index for household furnishings and operations turned down in June, declining 0.3 percent. The transportation index rose 0.1 percent in June, following a 0.4 percent decline in May, reflecting the movement in the gasoline index. The index for gasoline rose 0.4 percent in June, following a 2.8 percent decline in May. The index for new vehicles declined for the sixth consecutive month, down 0.1 percent. The index for used cars and trucks rose 0.1 percent in June, registering its first increase in six months. Airline fares, which had advanced in each of the first five months of 2002 after declining in each of the last six months of 2001, fell 0.6 percent in June. During the last 12 months, the index for airline fares has decreased 4.5 percent. The index for apparel declined 0.9 percent in June, following a 0.6 percent drop in May. The medical care index rose 0.2 percent in June to a level 4.5 percent above its level a year ago. The index for medical care commodities increased 0.3 percent. The index for medical care services rose 0.2 percent in June. Charges for professional services rose 0.1 percent and those for hospital and related services increased 0.3 percent. Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2002 3 Georgia Index of Economic Indicators 197.7 Leading indicators Coincident indicators 173.0 148.3 123.7 99.0 1987-88 = 100 74.4 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 Indicators attempt to recover during first half of year Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted. *** The Georgia Department of Labor's Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) increased 0.2 percent in June to 177.7 from a revised 177.2 in May, after seasonal adjustment. The index has grown 1.5 percent since January 2002 compared to 0.2 percent for the same period in 2001. The reduction in jobless claims along with an increase in the value of commercial construction moved the lead indicator into positive territory in June. Initial unemployment claims dropped for the second consecutive month, down 7.8 percent in June, after decreasing 5.0 percent in May. The value of nonresidential construction increased in June, up 15.5 percent, after a double digit drop in value the previous month. Recent 12 Months 184.7 Leading Coincident 177.8 170.9 164.0 157.1 1987-88 =100 150.2 J ASOND J F MAM J Other sectors of the leading indicator contracted in June. New business corporations filed with the Secretary of State ended the month down 25.7 percent, reversing May's 47.4 percent surge. Sales of new motor vehicles plummeted 15.0 percent in June. The index of Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI) decreased 0.8 percent in June to 159.3, from a revised 160.7 in May, after seasonal adjustment. The decline in the coincident index was due to a reduction in state tax revenue coupled with an increase in the state's jobless rate. Tax revenue collected by the state declined 13.5 percent in June, after surging 54.8 percent in May. Georgia's unemployment rate increased to 5.2 percent, before seasonal adjustment, up from 4.5 percent the previous month. The nation's jobless rate increased to 6.0 percent, prior to any seasonal adjustments. Retail employment ended the month down 0.8 percent. 4 Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2002 Georgia Department of Labor Data Summary June 2002 Georgia Economic Indicators Seasonally Adjusted Jun 2002 May 2002 Jun 2001 Percent Change May 2002 to Jun 2002 Percent Change Jun 2001 to Jun 2002 Nonagricultural Employment 3,884,308 3,887,840 3,971,332 -0.09 -2.19 Retail Employment 695,729 701,508 718,372 -0.82 -3.15 Manufacturing Employment 541,465 538,761 547,482 0.50 -1.10 Manufacturing Workweek 43.2 43.1 40.5 0.30 6.65 Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $559.38 $559.24 $532.20 0.03 5.11 Deflated Manufacturing Earnings $310.94 $311.03 $298.99 -0.03 4.00 Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled 9,924 9,923 8,113 0.02 22.33 Initial Unemployment Claims 44,197 48,023 53,061 -7.97 -16.71 Continued Unemployment Claims 306,589 308,224 251,027 -0.53 22.13 Unemployment Rate (not seasonally adjusted) 5.2% 4.5% 4.5% Insured Unemployment Rate 1.90% 1.97% 1.56% New Motor Vehicle Sales 41,558 48,946 43,724 -15.09 -4.95 Residential Construction (building permits) 8,459 9,273 9,129 -8.79 -7.34 Nonresidential Construction (dollar value) $490,410,000 $424,528,000 $475,670,000 15.52 3.10 Deflated Nonresidential Construction $400,334,700 $348,259,200 $398,050,200 14.95 0.57 New Business Corporations 4,521 6,090 4,721 -25.76 -4.24 Total State Revenues $1,192,921,000 $1,379,021,000 $1,226,480,000 -13.50 -2.74 Deflated Total State Revenues $663,102,300 $766,975,000 $689,033,700 -13.54 -3.76 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2002 5 Georgia Economic Indicators Nonagricultural Employment 4.04 2000-2001 2001-2002 3.99 3.95 3.91 3.86 3.82 J A SOND J FMA MJ Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun 2000-2001 3,956,277 3,968,522 3,970,521 3,971,120 3,973,532 3,979,488 3,969,680 3,977,192 3,983,939 3,982,787 3,974,909 3,971,332 2001-2002 3,960,068 3,945,137 3,935,987 3,942,193 3,906,082 3,892,867 3,872,285 3,880,687 3,873,452 3,889,756 3,887,840 3,884,308 MILLIONS Retail Employment 729.8 2000-2001 721.3 2001-2002 712.7 THOUSANDS 704.1 695.6 687.0 J A S O N D J F M A M J Manufacturing Employment 605 2000-2001 2001-2002 587 569 THOUSANDS 551 533 515 J A SO ND J F MAMJ 6 Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2002 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun 2000-2001 714,963 716,620 716,140 716,184 719,345 721,436 718,082 717,582 719,611 720,263 720,417 718,372 2001-2002 713,422 713,207 711,789 717,621 712,091 711,426 706,291 702,564 700,432 708,212 701,508 695,729 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2000-2001 582,865 582,507 579,493 576,410 574,233 572,476 568,517 565,865 563,555 556,407 551,136 547,482 2001-2002 547,243 543,104 541,888 541,929 533,672 538,342 537,895 539,768 535,800 537,020 538,761 541,465 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators Manufacturing Workweek 44.6 2000-2001 2001-2002 43.3 41.9 HOURS 40.6 39.2 37.9 J A SO ND J F MA M J Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2000-2001 41.3 41.2 41.1 41.3 41.2 41.1 41.0 40.4 40.5 39.2 40.2 40.5 2001-2002 40.6 41.3 41.2 40.6 40.6 40.3 42.8 41.8 42.9 43.0 43.1 43.2 Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $584 2000-2001 2001-2002 $567 DOLLARS $549 $532 $515 $498 J A S ON D J FMAM J Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2000-2001 $534.27 538.17 538.92 545.68 547.03 538.96 533.25 530.49 529.46 513.66 524.54 532.20 2001-2002 $531.66 536.72 537.84 526.74 523.65 526.39 555.99 558.71 564.83 558.04 559.24 559.38 Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $329 $319 2000-2001 2001-2002 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month 2000-2001 2001-2002 DOLLARS Jul $309.54 $299.53 $309 Aug 311.44 302.38 Sep 310.26 301.65 $299 $289 $279 Oct 313.61 296.42 Nov 314.20 295.18 Dec 309.75 297.90 Jan 304.54 313.94 Feb 301.76 314.24 Mar 300.49 315.90 Apr 290.37 310.37 May 295.18 311.03 Jun 298.99 310.94 J A S ON D J FMAM J Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2002 7 Georgia Economic Indicators Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled* 22.6 2000-2001 2001-2002 18.3 THOUSANDS 14.0 9.8 5.5 1.2 J A SO N D J F MA M J * Jobs listed with the Georgia Department of Labor Initial Unemployment Claims 99.6 2000-2001 2001-2002 80.9 THOUSANDS 62.1 43.4 24.6 5.9 J A S O N D J F MAM J Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2000-2001 16,416 16,105 14,415 13,509 12,513 11,504 11,144 11,717 11,033 10,485 9,536 8,113 2001-2002 8,655 8,801 7,642 7,647 7,307 6,863 8,463 9,031 10,088 10,184 9,923 9,924 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2000-2001 31,766 33,237 34,242 36,886 43,958 44,720 50,402 46,055 47,300 52,785 58,261 53,061 2001-2002 59,542 49,355 50,093 73,209 64,401 47,878 55,134 43,148 42,701 50,568 48,023 44,197 Continued Unemployment Claims 485.6 2000-2001 2001-2002 392.5 THOUSANDS 299.4 206.2 113.1 20.0 J A SO N D J F MA M J 8 Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2002 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2000-2001 151,158 148,693 151,634 181,147 165,718 164,512 211,730 196,795 185,827 258,887 242,095 251,027 2001-2002 282,298 263,622 272,945 370,414 324,446 360,381 316,501 326,290 299,206 388,590 308,224 306,589 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate * 5.9 2000-2001 5.2 2001-2002 PERCENTAGES 4.6 4.0 3.3 2.7 J A SO ND J F MAM J * Not Seasonally Adjusted Insured Unemployment Rate 2.76 2000-2001 2001-2002 2.26 PERCENTAGES 1.76 1.26 0.76 0.26 J A SO N D J F MA M J Monthly Data Not Seasonally Adjusted Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun 2000-2001 4.0 % 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.6 4.5 2001-2002 4.3 % 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.2 4.5 5.2 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun 2000-2001 0.91 % 0.97 0.95 0.94 1.03 1.21 1.19 1.23 1.29 1.35 1.48 1.56 2001-2002 1.73 % 1.64 1.72 1.92 2.03 2.09 2.22 2.04 2.05 2.09 1.97 1.90 New Motor Vehicle Sales 63 2000-2001 2001-2002 56 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month 2000-2001 2001-2002 THOUSANDS Jul 48,402 47,397 50 Aug 53,062 49,695 Sep 45,375 49,277 Oct 45,510 49,573 Nov 44,190 48,849 43 Dec 37,137 37,638 Jan 52,597 46,262 Feb 42,961 41,086 37 M ar 47,370 44,279 Apr 46,979 48,167 M ay 48,748 48,946 30 Jun 43,724 41,558 J A S O N D J F M A M J Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2002 9 Georgia Economic Indicators Residential Construction 10,277 2000-2001 9,388 2001-2002 HOUSEHOLD UNITS 8,499 7,609 6,720 5,831 J A S O N D J F M A M J Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2000-2001 7,637 7,442 7,590 7,110 7,265 7,293 8,434 7,897 7,192 7,566 8,313 9,129 2001-2002 8,400 7,768 6,920 7,370 6,928 6,997 7,711 7,698 8,118 8,138 9,273 8,459 Nonresidential Construction $810 2000-2001 2001-2002 $672 $534 MILLIONS $396 $258 $120 J A S O N D J F MA M J Deflated Nonresidential Construction $720 2000-2001 2001-2002 $591 $462 MILLIONS $333 $204 $75 J A SON D J F MA M J 10 Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2002 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2000-2001 $384,390,000 405,932,000 567,269,000 544,494,000 372,176,000 485,732,000 565,448,000 461,292,000 431,267,000 572,387,000 432,484,000 475,670,000 2001-2002 $496,336,000 471,396,000 529,509,000 512,544,000 619,902,000 323,839,000 501,561,000 525,956,000 265,245,000 495,148,000 424,528,000 490,410,000 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun 2000-2001 $332,517,300 350,545,800 489,446,900 467,778,400 318,916,900 414,801,000 479,599,700 389,934,100 363,631,500 482,213,100 363,431,900 398,050,200 2001-2002 $415,691,800 393,814,500 441,257,500 424,291,400 516,585,000 269,416,800 413,829,200 433,957,100 218,668,600 407,864,900 348,259,200 400,334,700 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators New Business Corporations* 7,123 2000-2001 2001-2002 6,068 CHARTERS 5,014 3,959 2,905 1,850 J A S O Total State Revenues $1,683 2000-2001 $1,466 ND 2001-2002 J F MA M J * Includes limited liability companies $1,250 MILLIONS $1,033 $817 $600 J A SO N D J F MA M J Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Ap r M ay Jun 2000-2001 4,128 4,858 4,271 4,654 4,806 4,611 4,859 4,544 5,039 4,513 4,718 4,721 2001-2002 4,442 5,605 4,161 4,742 2,931 3,039 5,348 5,085 5,617 4,129 6,090 4,521 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun 2000-2001 $1,125,837,000 1,180,082,000 1,135,949,000 1,181,132,000 1,132,895,000 1,133,560,000 1,342,191,000 1,124,170,000 926,149,000 989,987,000 1,428,144,000 1,226,480,000 2001-2002 $1,062,372,000 1,099,959,000 1,062,069,000 1,092,639,000 1,086,140,000 1,067,092,000 1,253,033,000 1,049,479,000 829,956,000 890,580,000 1,379,021,000 1,192,921,000 Deflated Total State Revenues $940 2000-2001 2001-2002 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted MILLIONS $823 Month 2000-2001 2001-2002 $706 $589 $472 $355 Jul $652,281,000 $598,519,400 Aug 682,917,800 619,695,200 Sep 653,971,800 595,664,000 Oct 678,811,500 614,878,400 Nov 650,715,100 612,254,800 Dec 651,471,300 603,900,400 Jan 766,528,300 707,528,500 Feb 639,459,600 590,258,200 M ar 525,623,700 464,181,200 Apr 559,630,900 495,317,000 M ay 803,682,600 766,975,000 Jun 689,033,700 663,102,300 J A S O ND J F M AM J Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2002 11 To receive a free subscription to this publication, please complete and mail this form Mail to: If you prefer, you may e-mail your request to bill.webb@dol.state.ga.us Bill Webb Workforce Information and Analysis Georgia Department of Labor 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E. 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