Georgia economic indicators, monthly report [Vol. 8, no. 5 (July 2002)]

GEORGIA

Economic Indicators

A Monthly Report of Georgia State Labor Market and Economic Trends

July 2002

Volume 8, Issue 5

Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner

Georgia Economic Indicators
Monthly Report May 2002 Data
Volume 8, Issue 5 July 2002

Cover art: Cockspur Island Lighthouse, Georgia by Huey J. Theus, Mableton, Georgia
Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177.
Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us

Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner

Equal Opportunity Employer/Programs - Auxiliary Aids and Services Available Upon Request to Individuals With Disabilities

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2002

Introduction

G eorgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is designed to provide in a single publication data on a
number of indicators used to measure movement of the state's economy.
The indicators have been collected and disseminated for many years by state and federal governments and private agencies, but not under a single cover. Contributing agencies include Georgia's Department of Labor, Department of Revenue and Office of Secretary of State, the U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the F.W. Dodge Company.
All data except those contained in the U.S. Consumer Price Index chart on Page 3 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data that have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars.
Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually in February.
The purpose of the publications is to serve the business and professional communities, economic developers, economists, educators and others who have need for information on state economic trends.

Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning Georgia economic Indicators, Monthly Report and Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Bill Webb, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177.

Data Sources

Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Employment, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Retail Employment, Manufacturing Employment and Manufacturing Workweek -- Georgia Department of Labor
Consumer Price Index -- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, adapted from commentary by Michael Wald
New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue
New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State
Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce
Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group
* Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center

2 Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2002

Georgia Department of Labor

Consumer Price Index

YEAR 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

JAN
109.6 111.2 115.7 121.1 127.4 134.6 138.1 142.6 146.2 150.3 154.4 159.1 161.6 164.3 168.7 175.1 177.1

FEB
109.3 111.6 116.0 121.6 128.0 134.8 138.6 143.1 146.7 150.9 154.9 159.6 161.9 164.5 169.7 175.8 177.8

MAR
108.8 112.1 116.5 122.3 128.7 135.0 139.3 143.6 147.2 151.4 155.7 160.0 162.2 165.0 171.1 176.2 178.8

APR MAY
108.6 108.9 112.7 113.1 117.1 117.5 123.1 123.8 128.9 129.2 135.2 135.6 139.5 139.7 144.0 144.2 147.4 147.5 151.9 152.2 156.3 156.6 160.2 160.1 162.5 162.8 166.2 166.2 171.2 171.3 176.9 177.7 179.8 179.8

JUN
109.5 113.5 118.0 124.1 129.9 136.0 140.2 144.4 148.0 152.5 156.7 160.3 163.0 166.2 172.3 178.0

JUL AUG
109.5 109.7 113.8 114.4 118.5 119.0 124.4 124.6 130.4 131.6 136.2 136.6 140.5 140.9 144.4 144.8 148.4 149.0 152.5 152.9 157.0 157.3 160.5 160.8 163.2 163.4 166.7 167.1 172.6 172.8 177.5 177.5

SEP
110.2 115.0 119.8 125.0 132.7 137.2 141.3 145.1 149.4 153.2 157.8 161.2 163.6 167.9 173.7 178.3

OCT
110.3 115.3 120.2 125.0 133.5 137.4 141.9 145.7 149.5 153.7 158.3 161.6 164.0 168.2 174.0 177.7

Chart is not seasonally adjusted

NOV DEC AVG

CPI RATE

110.4 110.5 109.6

1.1%

115.4 115.4 113.6

4.4%

120.3 120.5 118.3

4.4%

125.9 126.1 124.0

4.6%

133.8 133.8 130.7

6.1%

137.8 137.9 136.2

3.1%

142.0 141.9 140.3

2.9%

145.8 145.8 144.5

2.7%

149.7 149.7 148.2

2.7%

153.6 153.5 152.4

2.5%

158.6 158.6 156.9

3.3%

161.5 161.3 160.5

1.7%

164.0 163.9 163.0

1.6%

168.3 168.3 166.6

2.7%

174.1 174.0 172.1

3.4%

177.4 176.7 177.1

1.6%

U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS

The CPI Unchanged in May

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in May, before seasonal adjustment, as recently reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. The May level of 179.8 (1982-84=100) was 1.2 percent higher than its level in May 2001.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) was unchanged in May, prior to seasonal adjustment. The May level of 175.8 was 0.8 percent higher than the index in May 2001.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U was unchanged in May, following a 0.5 percent increase in April. The energy index, which had advanced sharply in each of the preceding two months, declined 0.7 percent in May. The index for petroleum-based energy decreased 2.7 percent, while the index for energy services rose 1.1 percent.
During the first five months of

2002, the CPI-U rose at a 3.0 percent seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). This compares with an increase of 1.6 percent for all of 2001.
The index for energy, which declined 13.0 percent in 2001, increased at a 19.7 percent SAAR in the first five months of 2002. Petroleum-based energy costs increased at a 48.4 percent annual rate, while charges for energy services declined at a 0.9 percent annual rate. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U advanced at a 2.3 percent SAAR in the first five months, following a 2.7 percent rise in all of 2001.
The index for housing rose 0.3 percent in May. Shelter costs, which rose 0.4 percent in April, increased 0.2 percent in May. The indexes for fuel oil and for electricity each rose 0.8 percent and the index for natural gas rose 1.9 percent. The index for household furnishings and

operations turned up in May, advancing 0.3 percent.
The transportation index, reflecting the movement in gasoline prices, rose sharply in March and April and declined 0.4 percent in May. After advancing 8.0 and 10.0 percent in March and April, respectively, the index for gasoline fell 2.8 percent in May. Airline fares increased for the fifth consecutive month, up 1.8 percent in May, following declines in each of the last six months of 2001.
The medical care index rose 0.5 percent in May to a level 4.7 percent above its level a year ago. The index for medical commodities increased 0.2 percent. The index for medical care services rose 0.6 percent in May. Charges for professional services rose 0.2 percent and those for hospital and related services increased 0.8 percent.

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2002 3

Georgia Index of Economic Indicators

197.7

Leading indicators Coincident indicators

173.0

148.3

123.7

99.0
1987-88 = 100

74.4

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

Georgia's Economic Indicators Show Signs of Improvement

Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted.
***
The Georgia Department of Labor's Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) increased 0.9 percent in May to 177.1 from a upwardly revised 175.5 in April, after seasonal adjustment. The index has grown 1.1 percent since January 2002 and 5.5 percent over the past twelve months
In May the leading economic indicator posted a gain after contracting in April. New corporate charter applications was the largest contributor to index's increase. The total number of new entities filed increased 47.4 percent in May, reversing April's decline. The housing sector continued to advance in May. Building permits for residential construction increased 13.9 percent during the reporting period, 11.5 percent ahead of the permits issued this time last year.

Recent 12 Months

184.7

Leading Coincident

177.8

170.9

164.0

157.1

1987-88 =100

150.2

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Sales of new motor vehicles were up 1.6 percent in May. Initial jobless claims fell 5.0 percent after increasing 18.4 percent in April. Commercial construction continued to hemorrhage as the value of nonresidential construction fell 14.2 percent in May.

The index of Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI) increased 1.7 percent in May to 160.6, from an upwardly revised 157.9 in April, after seasonal adjustment.
The CEI index was propelled forward in May from the surge in state revenue, which led the index with a 54.8 percent increase. Nonagricultural employment remained flat as retail employment declined 1.0 percent. The unemployment rate for state increased to 4.5 percent.
May's advance marks the second consecutive month the CEI has increased in over a year. Since January the index has increased a modest 0.5 percent.

4 Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2002

Georgia Department of Labor

Data Summary

May 2002

Georgia Economic Indicators

Seasonally Adjusted

May 2002

Apr 2002

May 2001

Percent Percent

Change Change

Apr 2002 May 2001

to

to

May 2002 May 2002

Nonagricultural Employment

3,888,838

3,889,756

3,974,909

-0.02

-2.17

Retail Employment

700,508

708,212

720,417

-1.09

-2.76

Manufacturing Employment

540,062

537,020

551,136

0.57

-2.01

Manufacturing Workweek

43.0

43.0

40.2

-0.21

6.77

Weekly Manufacturing Earnings

$559.65

$558.04

$524.54

0.29

6.69

Deflated Manufacturing Earnings

$311.26

$310.37

$295.18

0.29

5.45

Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled

9,923

10,184

9,536

-2.57

4.05

Initial Unemployment Claims

48,023

50,568

58,261

-5.03 -17.57

Continued Unemployment Claims

308,224

388,590

242,095

-20.68

27.32

Unemployment Rate (not seasonally adjusted)

4.5%

4.2%

3.6%

Insured Unemployment Rate

1.97%

2.09%

1.48%

New Motor Vehicle Sales

48,946

48,167

48,748

1.62

0.40

Residential Construction (building permits)

9,273

8,138

8,313

13.94

11.55

Nonresidential Construction (dollar value) $424,528,000 $495,148,000 $432,484,000

-14.26

-1.84

Deflated Nonresidential Construction $349,405,800 $407,864,900 $363,431,900

-14.33

-3.86

New Business Corporations

6,090

4,129

4,718

47.49

29.08

Total State Revenues

$1,379,021,000 $890,580,000 $1,428,144,000

54.85

-3.44

Deflated Total State Revenues

$766,975,000 $495,317,000 $803,682,600

54.85

-4.57

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2002

5

Georgia Economic Indicators

Nonagricultural Employment

4.04

2000-2001

2001-2002

3.99

3.95

3.91

3.86

3.82

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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay

2000-2001
3,955,191 3,956,277 3,968,522 3,970,521 3,971,120 3,973,532 3,979,488 3,969,680 3,977,192 3,983,939 3,982,787 3,974,909

2001-2002
3,971,332 3,960,068 3,945,137 3,935,987 3,942,193 3,906,082 3,892,867 3,872,285 3,880,687 3,873,452 3,889,756 3,888,838

MILLIONS

Retail Employment
729.8 2000-2001
721.9

2001-2002

713.9

THOUSANDS

706.0

698.1

690.2

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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay

2000-2001
713,479 714,963 716,620 716,140 716,184 719,345 721,436 718,082 717,582 719,611 720,263 720,417

2001-2002
718,372 713,422 713,207 711,789 717,621 712,091 711,426 706,291 702,564 700,432 708,212 700,508

Manufacturing Employment

605

2000-2001

2001-2002

587

569

THOUSANDS

551

533

515

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6 Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2002

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

2000-2001
587,948 582,865 582,507 579,493 576,410 574,233 572,476 568,517 565,865 563,555 556,407 551,136

2001-2002
547,482 547,243 543,104 541,888 541,929 533,672 538,342 537,895 539,768 535,800 537,020 540,062

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators

Manufacturing Workweek

44.6

2000-2001

2001-2002

43.3

41.9

HOURS

40.6

39.2

37.9

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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

2000-2001
41.2 41.3 41.2 41.1 41.3 41.2 41.1 41.0 40.4 40.5 39.2 40.2

2001-2002
40.5 40.6 41.3 41.2 40.6 40.6 40.3 42.8 41.8 42.9 43.0 43.0

Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings

$584

2000-2001

2001-2002

$567

DOLLARS

$549

$532

$515

$498

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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

2000-2001
$529.04 534.27 538.17 538.92 545.68 547.03 538.96 533.25 530.49 529.46 513.66 524.54

2001-2002
$532.20 531.66 536.72 537.84 526.74 523.65 526.39 555.99 558.71 564.83 558.04 559.65

Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings

$329 $319

2000-2001

2001-2002

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month 2000-2001

2001-2002

DOLLARS

Jun

$307.05

$298.99

$309

Jul

309.54

299.53

Aug

311.44

302.38

$299 $289 $279

Sep

310.26

301.65

Oct

313.61

296.42

Nov

314.20

295.18

Dec

309.75

297.90

Jan

304.54

313.94

Feb

301.76

314.24

Mar

300.49

315.90

Apr

290.37

310.37

May

295.18

311.26

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Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2002

7

Georgia Economic Indicators

Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled*

22.6

2000-2001

2001-2002

18.3

THOUSANDS

14.0

9.8

5.5

1.2

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* Jobs listed with the Georgia Department of Labor

Initial Unemployment Claims

99.6

2000-2001

2001-2002

80.9

THOUSANDS

62.1

43.4

24.6

5.9

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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

2000-2001 16,512 16,416 16,105 14,415 13,509 12,513 11,504 11,144 11,717 11,033 10,485 9,536

2001-2002 8,113 8,655 8,801 7,642 7,647 7,307 6,863 8,463 9,031 10,088 10,184 9,923

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

2000-2001 30,493 31,766 33,237 34,242 36,886 43,958 44,720 50,402 46,055 47,300 52,785 58,261

2001-2002 53,061 59,542 49,355 50,093 73,209 64,401 47,878 55,134 43,148 42,701 50,568 48,023

Continued Unemployment Claims

485.6

2000-2001

2001-2002

392.5

THOUSANDS

299.4

206.2

113.1

20.0

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8 Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2002

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

2000-2001
137,452 151,158 148,693 151,634 181,147 165,718 164,512 211,730 196,795 185,827 258,887 242,095

2001-2002
251,027 282,298 263,622 272,945 370,414 324,446 360,381 316,501 326,290 299,206 388,590 308,224

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate *
5.2 2000-2001
4.7

2001-2002

PERCENTAGES

4.2

3.7

3.2

2.7

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* Not Seasonally Adjusted

Monthly Data
Not Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay

2000-2001
4.3 % 4.0 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.6

2001-2002
4.2 % 4.0 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.2 4.5

Insured Unemployment Rate

2.76

2000-2001

2001-2002

2.26

PERCENTAGES

1.76

1.26

0.76

0.26

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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay

2000-2001
0.87 % 0.91 0.97 0.95 0.94 1.03 1.21 1.19 1.23 1.29 1.35 1.48

2001-2002
1.56 % 1.73 1.64 1.72 1.92 2.03 2.09 2.22 2.04 2.05 2.09 1.97

New Motor Vehicle Sales

62.65 56.12

2000-2001

2001-2002

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month

2000-2001

2001-2002

THOUSANDS

49.59

Jun

46,247

43,724

Jul

48,402

47,397

Aug

53,062

49,695

Sep

45,375

49,277

43.06

Oct

45,510

49,573

Nov

44,190

48,849

Dec

37,137

37,638

Jan

52,597

46,262

36.53

Feb

42,961

41,086

M ar

47,370

44,279

Apr

46,979

48,167

30.00

M ay

48,748

48,946

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Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2002 9

Georgia Economic Indicators

Residential Construction

10,277

2000-2001

9,388

2001-2002

HOUSEHOLD UNITS

8,499

7,609

6,720

5,831

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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

2000-2001 7,862 7,637 7,442 7,590 7,110 7,265 7,293 8,434 7,897 7,192 7,566 8,313

2001-2002 9,129 8,400 7,768 6,920 7,370 6,928 6,997 7,711 7,698 8,118 8,138 9,273

Nonresidential Construction

$810

2000-2001

2001-2002

$672

$534

MILLIONS

$396

$258

$120

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Deflated Nonresidential Construction

$720

2000-2001

2001-2002

$591

$462

MILLIONS

$333

$204

$75

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10 Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2002

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

2000-2001
$629,543,000 384,390,000 405,932,000 567,269,000 544,494,000 372,176,000 485,732,000 565,448,000 461,292,000 431,267,000 572,387,000 432,484,000

2001-2002
$475,670,000 496,336,000 471,396,000 529,509,000 512,544,000 619,902,000 323,839,000 501,561,000 525,956,000 265,245,000 495,148,000 424,528,000

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay

2000-2001
$546,953,100 332,517,300 350,545,800 489,446,900 467,778,400 318,916,900 414,801,000 479,599,700 389,934,100 363,631,500 482,213,100 363,431,900

2001-2002
$398,050,200 415,691,800 393,814,500 441,257,500 424,291,400 516,585,000 269,416,800 413,829,200 433,957,100 218,668,600 407,864,900 349,405,800

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators

New Business Corporations*

7,123

2000-2001

2001-2002

6,068

CHARTERS

5,014

3,959

2,905

1,850

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Total State Revenues

$1,683

2000-2001

$1,466

OND J F MAM * Includes limited liability companies
2001-2002

$1,250

MILLIONS

$1,033

$817

$600

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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Ap r M ay

2000-2001 4,692 4,128 4,858 4,271 4,654 4,806 4,611 4,859 4,544 5,039 4,513 4,718

2001-2002 4,721 4,442 5,605 4,161 4,742 2,931 3,039 5,348 5,085 5,617 4,129 6,090

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay

2000-2001
$1,033,355,000 1,125,837,000 1,180,082,000 1,135,949,000 1,181,132,000 1,132,895,000 1,133,560,000 1,342,191,000 1,124,170,000
926,149,000 989,987,000 1,428,144,000

2001-2002
$1,226,480,000 1,062,372,000 1,099,959,000 1,062,069,000 1,092,639,000 1,086,140,000 1,067,092,000 1,253,033,000 1,049,479,000
829,956,000 890,580,000 1,379,021,000

Deflated Total State Revenues

$940

2000-2001

2001-2002

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

MILLIONS

$823

Month

2000-2001

2001-2002

$706 $589 $472 $355

Jun

$599,741,700 $689,033,700

Jul

652,281,000

598,519,400

Aug

682,917,800

619,695,200

Sep

653,971,800

595,664,000

Oct

678,811,500

614,878,400

Nov

650,715,100

612,254,800

Dec

651,471,300

603,900,400

Jan

766,528,300

707,528,500

Feb

639,459,600

590,258,200

M ar

525,623,700

464,181,200

Apr

559,630,900

495,317,000

M ay

803,682,600

766,975,000

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Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2002

11

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