GEORGIA Economic Indicators A Monthly Report of Georgia State Labor Market and Economic Trends July 2002 Volume 8, Issue 5 Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner Georgia Economic Indicators Monthly Report May 2002 Data Volume 8, Issue 5 July 2002 Cover art: Cockspur Island Lighthouse, Georgia by Huey J. Theus, Mableton, Georgia Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177. Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner Equal Opportunity Employer/Programs - Auxiliary Aids and Services Available Upon Request to Individuals With Disabilities Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2002 Introduction G eorgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is designed to provide in a single publication data on a number of indicators used to measure movement of the state's economy. The indicators have been collected and disseminated for many years by state and federal governments and private agencies, but not under a single cover. Contributing agencies include Georgia's Department of Labor, Department of Revenue and Office of Secretary of State, the U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the F.W. Dodge Company. All data except those contained in the U.S. Consumer Price Index chart on Page 3 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data that have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars. Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually in February. The purpose of the publications is to serve the business and professional communities, economic developers, economists, educators and others who have need for information on state economic trends. Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning Georgia economic Indicators, Monthly Report and Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Bill Webb, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177. Data Sources Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Employment, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Retail Employment, Manufacturing Employment and Manufacturing Workweek -- Georgia Department of Labor Consumer Price Index -- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, adapted from commentary by Michael Wald New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group * Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center 2 Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2002 Georgia Department of Labor Consumer Price Index YEAR 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 JAN 109.6 111.2 115.7 121.1 127.4 134.6 138.1 142.6 146.2 150.3 154.4 159.1 161.6 164.3 168.7 175.1 177.1 FEB 109.3 111.6 116.0 121.6 128.0 134.8 138.6 143.1 146.7 150.9 154.9 159.6 161.9 164.5 169.7 175.8 177.8 MAR 108.8 112.1 116.5 122.3 128.7 135.0 139.3 143.6 147.2 151.4 155.7 160.0 162.2 165.0 171.1 176.2 178.8 APR MAY 108.6 108.9 112.7 113.1 117.1 117.5 123.1 123.8 128.9 129.2 135.2 135.6 139.5 139.7 144.0 144.2 147.4 147.5 151.9 152.2 156.3 156.6 160.2 160.1 162.5 162.8 166.2 166.2 171.2 171.3 176.9 177.7 179.8 179.8 JUN 109.5 113.5 118.0 124.1 129.9 136.0 140.2 144.4 148.0 152.5 156.7 160.3 163.0 166.2 172.3 178.0 JUL AUG 109.5 109.7 113.8 114.4 118.5 119.0 124.4 124.6 130.4 131.6 136.2 136.6 140.5 140.9 144.4 144.8 148.4 149.0 152.5 152.9 157.0 157.3 160.5 160.8 163.2 163.4 166.7 167.1 172.6 172.8 177.5 177.5 SEP 110.2 115.0 119.8 125.0 132.7 137.2 141.3 145.1 149.4 153.2 157.8 161.2 163.6 167.9 173.7 178.3 OCT 110.3 115.3 120.2 125.0 133.5 137.4 141.9 145.7 149.5 153.7 158.3 161.6 164.0 168.2 174.0 177.7 Chart is not seasonally adjusted NOV DEC AVG CPI RATE 110.4 110.5 109.6 1.1% 115.4 115.4 113.6 4.4% 120.3 120.5 118.3 4.4% 125.9 126.1 124.0 4.6% 133.8 133.8 130.7 6.1% 137.8 137.9 136.2 3.1% 142.0 141.9 140.3 2.9% 145.8 145.8 144.5 2.7% 149.7 149.7 148.2 2.7% 153.6 153.5 152.4 2.5% 158.6 158.6 156.9 3.3% 161.5 161.3 160.5 1.7% 164.0 163.9 163.0 1.6% 168.3 168.3 166.6 2.7% 174.1 174.0 172.1 3.4% 177.4 176.7 177.1 1.6% U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS The CPI Unchanged in May The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in May, before seasonal adjustment, as recently reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. The May level of 179.8 (1982-84=100) was 1.2 percent higher than its level in May 2001. The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) was unchanged in May, prior to seasonal adjustment. The May level of 175.8 was 0.8 percent higher than the index in May 2001. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U was unchanged in May, following a 0.5 percent increase in April. The energy index, which had advanced sharply in each of the preceding two months, declined 0.7 percent in May. The index for petroleum-based energy decreased 2.7 percent, while the index for energy services rose 1.1 percent. During the first five months of 2002, the CPI-U rose at a 3.0 percent seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). This compares with an increase of 1.6 percent for all of 2001. The index for energy, which declined 13.0 percent in 2001, increased at a 19.7 percent SAAR in the first five months of 2002. Petroleum-based energy costs increased at a 48.4 percent annual rate, while charges for energy services declined at a 0.9 percent annual rate. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U advanced at a 2.3 percent SAAR in the first five months, following a 2.7 percent rise in all of 2001. The index for housing rose 0.3 percent in May. Shelter costs, which rose 0.4 percent in April, increased 0.2 percent in May. The indexes for fuel oil and for electricity each rose 0.8 percent and the index for natural gas rose 1.9 percent. The index for household furnishings and operations turned up in May, advancing 0.3 percent. The transportation index, reflecting the movement in gasoline prices, rose sharply in March and April and declined 0.4 percent in May. After advancing 8.0 and 10.0 percent in March and April, respectively, the index for gasoline fell 2.8 percent in May. Airline fares increased for the fifth consecutive month, up 1.8 percent in May, following declines in each of the last six months of 2001. The medical care index rose 0.5 percent in May to a level 4.7 percent above its level a year ago. The index for medical commodities increased 0.2 percent. The index for medical care services rose 0.6 percent in May. Charges for professional services rose 0.2 percent and those for hospital and related services increased 0.8 percent. Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2002 3 Georgia Index of Economic Indicators 197.7 Leading indicators Coincident indicators 173.0 148.3 123.7 99.0 1987-88 = 100 74.4 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 Georgia's Economic Indicators Show Signs of Improvement Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted. *** The Georgia Department of Labor's Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) increased 0.9 percent in May to 177.1 from a upwardly revised 175.5 in April, after seasonal adjustment. The index has grown 1.1 percent since January 2002 and 5.5 percent over the past twelve months In May the leading economic indicator posted a gain after contracting in April. New corporate charter applications was the largest contributor to index's increase. The total number of new entities filed increased 47.4 percent in May, reversing April's decline. The housing sector continued to advance in May. Building permits for residential construction increased 13.9 percent during the reporting period, 11.5 percent ahead of the permits issued this time last year. Recent 12 Months 184.7 Leading Coincident 177.8 170.9 164.0 157.1 1987-88 =100 150.2 J J AS ON D J F MAM Sales of new motor vehicles were up 1.6 percent in May. Initial jobless claims fell 5.0 percent after increasing 18.4 percent in April. Commercial construction continued to hemorrhage as the value of nonresidential construction fell 14.2 percent in May. The index of Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI) increased 1.7 percent in May to 160.6, from an upwardly revised 157.9 in April, after seasonal adjustment. The CEI index was propelled forward in May from the surge in state revenue, which led the index with a 54.8 percent increase. Nonagricultural employment remained flat as retail employment declined 1.0 percent. The unemployment rate for state increased to 4.5 percent. May's advance marks the second consecutive month the CEI has increased in over a year. Since January the index has increased a modest 0.5 percent. 4 Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2002 Georgia Department of Labor Data Summary May 2002 Georgia Economic Indicators Seasonally Adjusted May 2002 Apr 2002 May 2001 Percent Percent Change Change Apr 2002 May 2001 to to May 2002 May 2002 Nonagricultural Employment 3,888,838 3,889,756 3,974,909 -0.02 -2.17 Retail Employment 700,508 708,212 720,417 -1.09 -2.76 Manufacturing Employment 540,062 537,020 551,136 0.57 -2.01 Manufacturing Workweek 43.0 43.0 40.2 -0.21 6.77 Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $559.65 $558.04 $524.54 0.29 6.69 Deflated Manufacturing Earnings $311.26 $310.37 $295.18 0.29 5.45 Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled 9,923 10,184 9,536 -2.57 4.05 Initial Unemployment Claims 48,023 50,568 58,261 -5.03 -17.57 Continued Unemployment Claims 308,224 388,590 242,095 -20.68 27.32 Unemployment Rate (not seasonally adjusted) 4.5% 4.2% 3.6% Insured Unemployment Rate 1.97% 2.09% 1.48% New Motor Vehicle Sales 48,946 48,167 48,748 1.62 0.40 Residential Construction (building permits) 9,273 8,138 8,313 13.94 11.55 Nonresidential Construction (dollar value) $424,528,000 $495,148,000 $432,484,000 -14.26 -1.84 Deflated Nonresidential Construction $349,405,800 $407,864,900 $363,431,900 -14.33 -3.86 New Business Corporations 6,090 4,129 4,718 47.49 29.08 Total State Revenues $1,379,021,000 $890,580,000 $1,428,144,000 54.85 -3.44 Deflated Total State Revenues $766,975,000 $495,317,000 $803,682,600 54.85 -4.57 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2002 5 Georgia Economic Indicators Nonagricultural Employment 4.04 2000-2001 2001-2002 3.99 3.95 3.91 3.86 3.82 J J A SOND J FMAM Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay 2000-2001 3,955,191 3,956,277 3,968,522 3,970,521 3,971,120 3,973,532 3,979,488 3,969,680 3,977,192 3,983,939 3,982,787 3,974,909 2001-2002 3,971,332 3,960,068 3,945,137 3,935,987 3,942,193 3,906,082 3,892,867 3,872,285 3,880,687 3,873,452 3,889,756 3,888,838 MILLIONS Retail Employment 729.8 2000-2001 721.9 2001-2002 713.9 THOUSANDS 706.0 698.1 690.2 J J A SO ND J F MAM Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay 2000-2001 713,479 714,963 716,620 716,140 716,184 719,345 721,436 718,082 717,582 719,611 720,263 720,417 2001-2002 718,372 713,422 713,207 711,789 717,621 712,091 711,426 706,291 702,564 700,432 708,212 700,508 Manufacturing Employment 605 2000-2001 2001-2002 587 569 THOUSANDS 551 533 515 J J A SO ND J F M AM 6 Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2002 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2000-2001 587,948 582,865 582,507 579,493 576,410 574,233 572,476 568,517 565,865 563,555 556,407 551,136 2001-2002 547,482 547,243 543,104 541,888 541,929 533,672 538,342 537,895 539,768 535,800 537,020 540,062 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators Manufacturing Workweek 44.6 2000-2001 2001-2002 43.3 41.9 HOURS 40.6 39.2 37.9 J J A SO N D J F MAM Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2000-2001 41.2 41.3 41.2 41.1 41.3 41.2 41.1 41.0 40.4 40.5 39.2 40.2 2001-2002 40.5 40.6 41.3 41.2 40.6 40.6 40.3 42.8 41.8 42.9 43.0 43.0 Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $584 2000-2001 2001-2002 $567 DOLLARS $549 $532 $515 $498 J J A S O N D J F M A M Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2000-2001 $529.04 534.27 538.17 538.92 545.68 547.03 538.96 533.25 530.49 529.46 513.66 524.54 2001-2002 $532.20 531.66 536.72 537.84 526.74 523.65 526.39 555.99 558.71 564.83 558.04 559.65 Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $329 $319 2000-2001 2001-2002 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month 2000-2001 2001-2002 DOLLARS Jun $307.05 $298.99 $309 Jul 309.54 299.53 Aug 311.44 302.38 $299 $289 $279 Sep 310.26 301.65 Oct 313.61 296.42 Nov 314.20 295.18 Dec 309.75 297.90 Jan 304.54 313.94 Feb 301.76 314.24 Mar 300.49 315.90 Apr 290.37 310.37 May 295.18 311.26 J J A S O N D J F M A M Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2002 7 Georgia Economic Indicators Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled* 22.6 2000-2001 2001-2002 18.3 THOUSANDS 14.0 9.8 5.5 1.2 J J ASON D J FMAM * Jobs listed with the Georgia Department of Labor Initial Unemployment Claims 99.6 2000-2001 2001-2002 80.9 THOUSANDS 62.1 43.4 24.6 5.9 J J A SON D J FMAM Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2000-2001 16,512 16,416 16,105 14,415 13,509 12,513 11,504 11,144 11,717 11,033 10,485 9,536 2001-2002 8,113 8,655 8,801 7,642 7,647 7,307 6,863 8,463 9,031 10,088 10,184 9,923 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2000-2001 30,493 31,766 33,237 34,242 36,886 43,958 44,720 50,402 46,055 47,300 52,785 58,261 2001-2002 53,061 59,542 49,355 50,093 73,209 64,401 47,878 55,134 43,148 42,701 50,568 48,023 Continued Unemployment Claims 485.6 2000-2001 2001-2002 392.5 THOUSANDS 299.4 206.2 113.1 20.0 J J A SOND J F MAM 8 Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2002 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2000-2001 137,452 151,158 148,693 151,634 181,147 165,718 164,512 211,730 196,795 185,827 258,887 242,095 2001-2002 251,027 282,298 263,622 272,945 370,414 324,446 360,381 316,501 326,290 299,206 388,590 308,224 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate * 5.2 2000-2001 4.7 2001-2002 PERCENTAGES 4.2 3.7 3.2 2.7 J J A SON D J F MAM * Not Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Data Not Seasonally Adjusted Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay 2000-2001 4.3 % 4.0 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.6 2001-2002 4.2 % 4.0 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.2 4.5 Insured Unemployment Rate 2.76 2000-2001 2001-2002 2.26 PERCENTAGES 1.76 1.26 0.76 0.26 J J A S O N D J F MA M Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay 2000-2001 0.87 % 0.91 0.97 0.95 0.94 1.03 1.21 1.19 1.23 1.29 1.35 1.48 2001-2002 1.56 % 1.73 1.64 1.72 1.92 2.03 2.09 2.22 2.04 2.05 2.09 1.97 New Motor Vehicle Sales 62.65 56.12 2000-2001 2001-2002 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month 2000-2001 2001-2002 THOUSANDS 49.59 Jun 46,247 43,724 Jul 48,402 47,397 Aug 53,062 49,695 Sep 45,375 49,277 43.06 Oct 45,510 49,573 Nov 44,190 48,849 Dec 37,137 37,638 Jan 52,597 46,262 36.53 Feb 42,961 41,086 M ar 47,370 44,279 Apr 46,979 48,167 30.00 M ay 48,748 48,946 J J A SOND J FMAM Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2002 9 Georgia Economic Indicators Residential Construction 10,277 2000-2001 9,388 2001-2002 HOUSEHOLD UNITS 8,499 7,609 6,720 5,831 J J ASOND J FMAM Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2000-2001 7,862 7,637 7,442 7,590 7,110 7,265 7,293 8,434 7,897 7,192 7,566 8,313 2001-2002 9,129 8,400 7,768 6,920 7,370 6,928 6,997 7,711 7,698 8,118 8,138 9,273 Nonresidential Construction $810 2000-2001 2001-2002 $672 $534 MILLIONS $396 $258 $120 J J A S O ND J F MAM Deflated Nonresidential Construction $720 2000-2001 2001-2002 $591 $462 MILLIONS $333 $204 $75 J J A SO ND J F MAM 10 Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2002 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2000-2001 $629,543,000 384,390,000 405,932,000 567,269,000 544,494,000 372,176,000 485,732,000 565,448,000 461,292,000 431,267,000 572,387,000 432,484,000 2001-2002 $475,670,000 496,336,000 471,396,000 529,509,000 512,544,000 619,902,000 323,839,000 501,561,000 525,956,000 265,245,000 495,148,000 424,528,000 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay 2000-2001 $546,953,100 332,517,300 350,545,800 489,446,900 467,778,400 318,916,900 414,801,000 479,599,700 389,934,100 363,631,500 482,213,100 363,431,900 2001-2002 $398,050,200 415,691,800 393,814,500 441,257,500 424,291,400 516,585,000 269,416,800 413,829,200 433,957,100 218,668,600 407,864,900 349,405,800 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators New Business Corporations* 7,123 2000-2001 2001-2002 6,068 CHARTERS 5,014 3,959 2,905 1,850 J J A S Total State Revenues $1,683 2000-2001 $1,466 OND J F MAM * Includes limited liability companies 2001-2002 $1,250 MILLIONS $1,033 $817 $600 J J A S O ND J F MAM Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Ap r M ay 2000-2001 4,692 4,128 4,858 4,271 4,654 4,806 4,611 4,859 4,544 5,039 4,513 4,718 2001-2002 4,721 4,442 5,605 4,161 4,742 2,931 3,039 5,348 5,085 5,617 4,129 6,090 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay 2000-2001 $1,033,355,000 1,125,837,000 1,180,082,000 1,135,949,000 1,181,132,000 1,132,895,000 1,133,560,000 1,342,191,000 1,124,170,000 926,149,000 989,987,000 1,428,144,000 2001-2002 $1,226,480,000 1,062,372,000 1,099,959,000 1,062,069,000 1,092,639,000 1,086,140,000 1,067,092,000 1,253,033,000 1,049,479,000 829,956,000 890,580,000 1,379,021,000 Deflated Total State Revenues $940 2000-2001 2001-2002 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted MILLIONS $823 Month 2000-2001 2001-2002 $706 $589 $472 $355 Jun $599,741,700 $689,033,700 Jul 652,281,000 598,519,400 Aug 682,917,800 619,695,200 Sep 653,971,800 595,664,000 Oct 678,811,500 614,878,400 Nov 650,715,100 612,254,800 Dec 651,471,300 603,900,400 Jan 766,528,300 707,528,500 Feb 639,459,600 590,258,200 M ar 525,623,700 464,181,200 Apr 559,630,900 495,317,000 M ay 803,682,600 766,975,000 J J A S ON D J FMAM Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2002 11 To receive a free subscription to this publication, please complete and mail this form Mail to: If you prefer, you may e-mail your request to bill.webb@dol.state.ga.us Bill Webb Workforce Information and Analysis Georgia Department of Labor 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E. 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