Georgia economic indicators, monthly report [Vol. 8, no. 4 (June 2002)]

GEORGIA

Economic

Indicators

A Monthly Report of Georgia State Labor Market and Economic Trends

June 2002

Volume 8, Issue 4

Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner

Georgia Economic Indicators
Monthly Report April 2002 Data
Volume 8, Issue 4 June 2002

Cover art: Jekyll Island Club, Georgia by Huey J. Theus, Mableton, Georgia
Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177.
Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us

Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner

Equal Opportunity Employer/Programs - Auxiliary Aids and Services Available Upon Request to Individuals With Disabilities

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / June 2002

Introduction

G eorgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is designed to provide in a single publication data on a
number of indicators used to measure movement of the state's economy.
The indicators have been collected and disseminated for many years by state and federal governments and private agencies, but not under a single cover. Contributing agencies include Georgia's Department of Labor, Department of Revenue and Office of Secretary of State, the U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the F.W. Dodge Company.
All data except those contained in the U.S. Consumer Price Index chart on Page 3 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data that have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars.
Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually in February.
The purpose of the publications is to serve the business and professional communities, economic developers, economists, educators and others who have need for information on state economic trends.

Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning Georgia economic Indicators, Monthly Report and Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Bill Webb, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177.

Data Sources

Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Employment, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Retail Employment, Manufacturing Employment and Manufacturing Workweek -- Georgia Department of Labor
Consumer Price Index -- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, adapted from commentary by Michael Wald
New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue
New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State
Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce
Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group
* Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center

2 Georgia Economic Indicators / June 2002

Georgia Department of Labor

Consumer Price Index

YEAR 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

JAN
109.6 111.2 115.7 121.1 127.4 134.6 138.1 142.6 146.2 150.3 154.4 159.1 161.6 164.3 168.7 175.1 177.1

FEB
109.3 111.6 116.0 121.6 128.0 134.8 138.6 143.1 146.7 150.9 154.9 159.6 161.9 164.5 169.7 175.8 177.8

MAR
108.8 112.1 116.5 122.3 128.7 135.0 139.3 143.6 147.2 151.4 155.7 160.0 162.2 165.0 171.1 176.2 178.8

APR MAY
108.6 108.9 112.7 113.1 117.1 117.5 123.1 123.8 128.9 129.2 135.2 135.6 139.5 139.7 144.0 144.2 147.4 147.5 151.9 152.2 156.3 156.6 160.2 160.1 162.5 162.8 166.2 166.2 171.2 171.3 176.9 177.7 179.8

JUN
109.5 113.5 118.0 124.1 129.9 136.0 140.2 144.4 148.0 152.5 156.7 160.3 163.0 166.2 172.3 178.0

JUL AUG
109.5 109.7 113.8 114.4 118.5 119.0 124.4 124.6 130.4 131.6 136.2 136.6 140.5 140.9 144.4 144.8 148.4 149.0 152.5 152.9 157.0 157.3 160.5 160.8 163.2 163.4 166.7 167.1 172.6 172.8 177.5 177.5

SEP
110.2 115.0 119.8 125.0 132.7 137.2 141.3 145.1 149.4 153.2 157.8 161.2 163.6 167.9 173.7 178.3

OCT
110.3 115.3 120.2 125.0 133.5 137.4 141.9 145.7 149.5 153.7 158.3 161.6 164.0 168.2 174.0 177.7

Chart is not seasonally adjusted

NOV DEC AVG

CPI RATE

110.4 110.5 109.6

1.1%

115.4 115.4 113.6

4.4%

120.3 120.5 118.3

4.4%

125.9 126.1 124.0

4.6%

133.8 133.8 130.7

6.1%

137.8 137.9 136.2

3.1%

142.0 141.9 140.3

2.9%

145.8 145.8 144.5

2.7%

149.7 149.7 148.2

2.7%

153.6 153.5 152.4

2.5%

158.6 158.6 156.9

3.3%

161.5 161.3 160.5

1.7%

164.0 163.9 163.0

1.6%

168.3 168.3 166.6

2.7%

174.1 174.0 172.1

3.4%

177.4 176.7 177.1

1.6%

U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS

The CPI Increases 0.6 Percent in April

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.6 percent in April, before seasonal adjustment, to a level of 179.8 (198284=100), as recently reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. For the 12month period ending in April, the CPI-U increased 1.6 percent.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) also increased 0.6 percent in April, prior to seasonal adjustment. The April level of 175.8 was 1.3 percent higher than the index in April 2001.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U increased 0.5 percent in April. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U rose 0.3 percent in April after increasing 0.1 percent in March.
During the first four months of 2002, the CPI-U rose at a 3.8 percent seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). This compares with an increase of 1.6 percent for all of 2001. The index for energy, which

declined 13.0 percent in 2001, increased at a 28.0 percent SAAR in the first four months of 2002. Petroleum-based energy costs increased at a 77.5 percent annual rate, while charges for energy services declined at a 4.4 percent annual rate. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U advanced at a 2.4 percent SAAR in the first four months, following a 2.7 percent rise in all of 2001.
The index for housing rose 0.3 percent in April. Shelter costs, which rose 0.1 percent in March, advanced 0.4 percent in April. The index for fuels and utilities increased 0.2 percent in April. The index for fuel oil rose 3.5 percent, following a 2.2 percent increase in March. In April, the index for natural gas rose 2.4 percent, while the index for electricity declined 0.7 percent.
The transportation index, which rose 1.2 percent in March, advanced 1.7 percent in April. The increases in both months reflect the sharp runup in

gasoline prices. The index for gasoline rose 8.0 and 10.1 percent in March and April, respectively. (Prior to seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices rose 9.7 and 12.8 percent, respectively, in March and April.) In April, the indexes for new vehicles and for used cars and trucks each declined for the fourth consecutive month, down 0.2 and 0.5 percent, respectively. Airline fares increased for the fourth consecutive month, up 0.9 percent in April, following declines in each of the last six months of 2001.
The medical care index rose 0.5 percent in April to a level 4.6 percent above its level a year ago. The index for medical care commodities increased 0.2 percent. The index for medical care services rose 0.3 percent in April. Charges for professional services rose 0.3 percent and those for hospital and related services increased 1.1 percent.

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / June 2002 3

Georgia Index of Economic Indicators

197.7

Leading indicators Coincident indicators

173.0

148.3

123.7

99.0
1987-88 = 100

74.4

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

Georgia's economy unable to post strong signs of improvement

Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted.
***
The Georgia Department of Labor's Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) moved downward to 175.5 in April from a revised 175.9 in March, after seasonal adjustment.
The leading economic indicator was prevented from advancing in April due to increased initial jobless claims (up 18.4 percent) and declines in new business corporations filed with the state (down 26.4 percent). Other sectors in the LEI made modest gains except for the value of nonresidential construction, which surged 86.6 percent after dropping 49.5 percent in March.
The index of Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI) posted

Recent 12 Months

184.7

Leading Coincident

177.8

170.9

164.0

157.1

1987-88 =100

150.2

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The Leading Index reflects activity that will impact the economy for a duration of three to six months into the future. Coincident indicators measure current conditions.

a small gain in April, up 0.4 percent to 157.6, from a revised 156.8 in March, after seasonal adjustment.
The CEI managed to move into positive territory in April after contracting the previous three months. The drop in unemployment, coupled with gains in the retail employment sector, assisted in moving the indicator upward. State revenues increased 7.3 percent in April, reversing March's decline.
Georgia's economy has not been able to post strong signs of improvement. However, various sectors have managed to show positive gains sparingly.

4 Georgia Economic Indicators / June 2002

Georgia Department of Labor

Data Summary

April 2002

Georgia Economic Indicators

Seasonally Adjusted

Apr 2002

Mar 2002

Apr 2001

Percent Change
Mar 2002 to
Apr 2002

Percent Change
Apr 2001 to
Apr 2002

Nonagricultural Employment

3,886,751

3,873,452

3,982,787

0.34

-2.41

Retail Employment

706,502

700,432

720,263

0.87

-1.91

Manufacturing Employment

534,915

535,800

556,407

-0.17

-3.86

Manufacturing Workweek

43.0

42.9

39.2

0.35

9.80

Weekly Manufacturing Earnings

$564.51

$564.83

$513.66

-0.06

9.90

Deflated Manufacturing Earnings

$313.96

$315.90

$290.37

-0.61

8.13

Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled

10,184

10,088

10,485

0.95

-2.87

Initial Unemployment Claims

50,568

42,701

52,785

18.43

-4.20

Continued Unemployment Claims

388,590

299,206

258,887

29.87

50.10

Unemployment Rate (not seasonally adjusted)

4.2%

4.6%

3.5%

Insured Unemployment Rate

2.09%

2.05%

1.35%

New Motor Vehicle Sales

48,167

44,279

46,979

8.78

2.53

Residential Construction (building permits)

8,138

8,118

7,566

0.25

7.57

Nonresidential Construction (dollar value) $495,148,000 $265,245,000 $572,387,000

86.68 -13.49

Deflated Nonresidential Construction $408,538,000 $219,210,700 $483,843,600

86.37 -15.56

New Business Corporations

4,129

5,617

4,513

-26.49

-8.50

Total State Revenues

$890,580,000 $829,956,000 $989,987,000

7.30 -10.04

Deflated Total State Revenues

$495,317,000 $464,181,200 $559,630,900

6.71 -11.49

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / June 2002 5

Georgia Economic Indicators
Nonagricultural Employment
4.03 2000-2001 2001-2002
3.99

3.95

3.90

3.86

3.82

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N

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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr

2000-2001
3,951,406 3,955,191 3,956,277 3,968,522 3,970,521 3,971,120 3,973,532 3,979,488 3,969,680 3,977,192 3,983,939 3,982,787

2001-2002
3,974,909 3,971,332 3,960,068 3,945,137 3,935,987 3,942,193 3,906,082 3,892,867 3,872,285 3,880,687 3,873,452 3,886,751

MILLIONS

Retail Employment

729.8

2000-2001 2001-2002

722.2

714.6

THOUSANDS

707.0

699.3

691.7

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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr

2000-2001
713,348 713,479 714,963 716,620 716,140 716,184 719,345 721,436 718,082 717,582 719,611 720,263

2001-2002
720,417 718,372 713,422 713,207 711,789 717,621 712,091 711,426 706,291 702,564 700,432 706,502

Manufacturing Employment

605

2000-2001

2001-2002

590

575

THOUSANDS

560

545

530

515

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6 Georgia Economic Indicators / June 2002

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

2000-2001
588,489 587,948 582,865 582,507 579,493 576,410 574,233 572,476 568,517 565,865 563,555 556,407

2001-2002
551,136 547,482 547,243 543,104 541,888 541,929 533,672 538,342 537,895 539,768 535,800 534,915

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators

Manufacturing Workweek

44.7

2000-2001

2001-2002

43.3

41.9

HOURS

40.5

39.1

37.7

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N

D

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A

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

2000-2001
41.0 41.2 41.3 41.2 41.1 41.3 41.2 41.1 41.0 40.4 40.5 39.2

2001-2002
40.2 40.5 40.6 41.3 41.2 40.6 40.6 40.3 42.8 41.8 42.9 43.0

Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings

$584

2000-2001

2001-2002

$566

DOLLARS

$548

$530

$512

$494

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N

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A

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

2000-2001
$523.51 529.04 534.27 538.17 538.92 545.68 547.03 538.96 533.25 530.49 529.46 513.66

2001-2002
$524.54 532.20 531.66 536.72 537.84 526.74 523.65 526.39 555.99 558.71 564.83 564.51

Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings

DOLLARS

$329

2000-2001

2001-2002

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

$318

Month 2000-2001 2001-2002

$308

$298

$287

$277

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May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

$305.61 307.05 309.54 311.44 310.26 313.61 314.20 309.75 304.54 301.76 300.49 290.37

$295.18 298.99 299.53 302.38 301.65 296.42 295.18 297.90 313.94 314.24 315.90 313.96

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / June 2002

7

Georgia Economic Indicators

Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled*

23.5

2000-2001

2001-2002

19.1

THOUSANDS

14.6

10.1

5.7

1.2

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N

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* Jobs listed with the Georgia Department of Labor

Initial Unemployment Claims

96.0

2000-2001

2001-2002

78.0

THOUSANDS

59.9

41.9

23.9

5.9

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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

2000-2001 17,965 16,512 16,416 16,105 14,415 13,509 12,513 11,504 11,144 11,717 11,033 10,485

2001-2002 9,536 8,113 8,655 8,801 7,642 7,647 7,307 6,863 8,463 9,031 10,088 10,184

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

2000-2001 27,835 30,493 31,766 33,237 34,242 36,886 43,958 44,720 50,402 46,055 47,300 52,785

2001-2002 58,261 53,061 59,542 49,355 50,093 73,209 64,401 47,878 55,134 43,148 42,701 50,568

Continued Unemployment Claims

505.2

2000-2001

2001-2002

408.1

THOUSANDS

311.1

214.0

117.0

19.9

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8 Georgia Economic Indicators / June 2002

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

2000-2001
150,682 137,452 151,158 148,693 151,634 181,147 165,718 164,512 211,730 196,795 185,827 258,887

2001-2002
242,095 251,027 282,298 263,622 272,945 370,414 324,446 360,381 316,501 326,290 299,206 388,590

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate *

5.1

2000-2001

2001-2002

4.6

PERCENTAGES

4.2

3.7

3.2

2.7

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* Not Seasonally Adjusted

Insured Unemployment Rate

2.76

2000-2001

2001-2002

2.26

PERCENTAGES

1.76

1.26

0.76

0.26

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Monthly Data
Not Seasonally Adjusted

Month
M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr

2000-2001
3.5 % 4.3 4.0 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.5

2001-2002
3.5 % 4.2 4.0 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.2

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr

2000-2001
0.83 % 0.87 0.91 0.97 0.95 0.94 1.03 1.21 1.19 1.23 1.29 1.35

2001-2002
1.48 % 1.56 1.73 1.64 1.72 1.92 2.03 2.09 2.22 2.04 2.05 2.09

New Motor Vehicle Sales

62

2000-2001

2001-2002

55

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month

2000-2001

2001-2002

THOUSANDS

48

42

35

28

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M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr

50,998 46,247 48,402 53,062 45,375 45,510 44,190 37,137 52,597 42,961 47,370 46,979

48,748 43,724 47,397 49,695 49,277 49,573 48,849 37,638 46,262 41,086 44,279 48,167

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / June 2002 9

Georgia Economic Indicators

Residential Construction

10,106

2000-2001

2001-2002

9,251

HOUSEHOLD UNITS

8,396

7,541

6,686

5,831

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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

2000-2001 8,114 7,862 7,637 7,442 7,590 7,110 7,265 7,293 8,434 7,897 7,192 7,566

2001-2002 8,313 9,129 8,400 7,768 6,920 7,370 6,928 6,997 7,711 7,698 8,118 8,138

Nonresidential Construction

$814

2000-2001

2001-2002

$670

$525

MILLIONS

$380

$235

$91

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Deflated Nonresidential Construction

$720

2000-2001

2001-2002

$585

$451

MILLIONS

$317

$183

$48

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10 Georgia Economic Indicators / June 2002

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

2000-2001
$589,272,000 629,543,000 384,390,000 405,932,000 567,269,000 544,494,000 372,176,000 485,732,000 565,448,000 461,292,000 431,267,000 572,387,000

2001-2002
$432,484,000 475,670,000 496,336,000 471,396,000 529,509,000 512,544,000 619,902,000 323,839,000 501,561,000 525,956,000 265,245,000 495,148,000

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr

2000-2001
$513,303,100 546,953,100 332,229,900 350,545,800 489,446,900 468,180,600 319,190,400 415,510,700 481,642,200 391,921,800 363,938,400 483,843,600

2001-2002
$364,657,700 399,722,700 417,791,200 395,466,400 443,474,900 426,054,900 514,441,500 268,300,700 414,170,900 433,957,100 219,210,700 408,538,000

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators

New Business Corporations*

6,725

2000-2001

2001-2002

5,750

CHARTERS

4,775

3,800

2,825

1,850

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* Includes limited liability companies

Total State Revenues

$1,683

2000-2001

2001-2002

$1,457

$1,232

MILLIONS

$1,006

$780

$555

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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Ap r

2000-2001 5,285 4,692 4,128 4,858 4,271 4,654 4,806 4,611 4,859 4,544 5,039 4,513

2001-2002 4,718 4,721 4,442 5,605 4,161 4,742 2,931 3,039 5,348 5,085 5,617 4,129

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr

2000-2001
$1,346,521,000 1,033,355,000 1,125,837,000 1,180,082,000 1,135,949,000 1,181,132,000 1,132,895,000 1,133,560,000 1,342,191,000 1,124,170,000
926,149,000 989,987,000

2001-2002
$1,428,144,000 1,226,480,000 1,062,372,000 1,099,959,000 1,062,069,000 1,092,639,000 1,086,140,000 1,067,092,000 1,253,033,000 1,049,479,000
829,956,000 890,580,000

Deflated Total State Revenues

$940

2000-2001

2001-2002

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

MILLIONS

$819

$697

$575

$453

$331

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Month
M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr

2000-2001
$786,060,100 599,741,700 652,281,000 682,917,800 653,971,800 678,811,500 650,715,100 651,471,300 766,528,300 639,459,600 525,623,700 559,630,900

2001-2002
$803,682,600 689,033,700 598,519,400 619,695,200 595,664,000 614,878,400 612,254,800 603,900,400 707,528,500 590,258,200 464,181,200 495,317,000

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / J une 2002

11

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