GEORGIA Economic Indicators A Monthly Report of Georgia State Labor Market and Economic Trends June 2002 Volume 8, Issue 4 Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner Georgia Economic Indicators Monthly Report April 2002 Data Volume 8, Issue 4 June 2002 Cover art: Jekyll Island Club, Georgia by Huey J. Theus, Mableton, Georgia Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177. Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner Equal Opportunity Employer/Programs - Auxiliary Aids and Services Available Upon Request to Individuals With Disabilities Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / June 2002 Introduction G eorgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is designed to provide in a single publication data on a number of indicators used to measure movement of the state's economy. The indicators have been collected and disseminated for many years by state and federal governments and private agencies, but not under a single cover. Contributing agencies include Georgia's Department of Labor, Department of Revenue and Office of Secretary of State, the U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the F.W. Dodge Company. All data except those contained in the U.S. Consumer Price Index chart on Page 3 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data that have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars. Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually in February. The purpose of the publications is to serve the business and professional communities, economic developers, economists, educators and others who have need for information on state economic trends. Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning Georgia economic Indicators, Monthly Report and Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Bill Webb, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177. Data Sources Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Employment, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Retail Employment, Manufacturing Employment and Manufacturing Workweek -- Georgia Department of Labor Consumer Price Index -- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, adapted from commentary by Michael Wald New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group * Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center 2 Georgia Economic Indicators / June 2002 Georgia Department of Labor Consumer Price Index YEAR 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 JAN 109.6 111.2 115.7 121.1 127.4 134.6 138.1 142.6 146.2 150.3 154.4 159.1 161.6 164.3 168.7 175.1 177.1 FEB 109.3 111.6 116.0 121.6 128.0 134.8 138.6 143.1 146.7 150.9 154.9 159.6 161.9 164.5 169.7 175.8 177.8 MAR 108.8 112.1 116.5 122.3 128.7 135.0 139.3 143.6 147.2 151.4 155.7 160.0 162.2 165.0 171.1 176.2 178.8 APR MAY 108.6 108.9 112.7 113.1 117.1 117.5 123.1 123.8 128.9 129.2 135.2 135.6 139.5 139.7 144.0 144.2 147.4 147.5 151.9 152.2 156.3 156.6 160.2 160.1 162.5 162.8 166.2 166.2 171.2 171.3 176.9 177.7 179.8 JUN 109.5 113.5 118.0 124.1 129.9 136.0 140.2 144.4 148.0 152.5 156.7 160.3 163.0 166.2 172.3 178.0 JUL AUG 109.5 109.7 113.8 114.4 118.5 119.0 124.4 124.6 130.4 131.6 136.2 136.6 140.5 140.9 144.4 144.8 148.4 149.0 152.5 152.9 157.0 157.3 160.5 160.8 163.2 163.4 166.7 167.1 172.6 172.8 177.5 177.5 SEP 110.2 115.0 119.8 125.0 132.7 137.2 141.3 145.1 149.4 153.2 157.8 161.2 163.6 167.9 173.7 178.3 OCT 110.3 115.3 120.2 125.0 133.5 137.4 141.9 145.7 149.5 153.7 158.3 161.6 164.0 168.2 174.0 177.7 Chart is not seasonally adjusted NOV DEC AVG CPI RATE 110.4 110.5 109.6 1.1% 115.4 115.4 113.6 4.4% 120.3 120.5 118.3 4.4% 125.9 126.1 124.0 4.6% 133.8 133.8 130.7 6.1% 137.8 137.9 136.2 3.1% 142.0 141.9 140.3 2.9% 145.8 145.8 144.5 2.7% 149.7 149.7 148.2 2.7% 153.6 153.5 152.4 2.5% 158.6 158.6 156.9 3.3% 161.5 161.3 160.5 1.7% 164.0 163.9 163.0 1.6% 168.3 168.3 166.6 2.7% 174.1 174.0 172.1 3.4% 177.4 176.7 177.1 1.6% U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS The CPI Increases 0.6 Percent in April The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.6 percent in April, before seasonal adjustment, to a level of 179.8 (198284=100), as recently reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. For the 12month period ending in April, the CPI-U increased 1.6 percent. The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) also increased 0.6 percent in April, prior to seasonal adjustment. The April level of 175.8 was 1.3 percent higher than the index in April 2001. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U increased 0.5 percent in April. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U rose 0.3 percent in April after increasing 0.1 percent in March. During the first four months of 2002, the CPI-U rose at a 3.8 percent seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). This compares with an increase of 1.6 percent for all of 2001. The index for energy, which declined 13.0 percent in 2001, increased at a 28.0 percent SAAR in the first four months of 2002. Petroleum-based energy costs increased at a 77.5 percent annual rate, while charges for energy services declined at a 4.4 percent annual rate. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U advanced at a 2.4 percent SAAR in the first four months, following a 2.7 percent rise in all of 2001. The index for housing rose 0.3 percent in April. Shelter costs, which rose 0.1 percent in March, advanced 0.4 percent in April. The index for fuels and utilities increased 0.2 percent in April. The index for fuel oil rose 3.5 percent, following a 2.2 percent increase in March. In April, the index for natural gas rose 2.4 percent, while the index for electricity declined 0.7 percent. The transportation index, which rose 1.2 percent in March, advanced 1.7 percent in April. The increases in both months reflect the sharp runup in gasoline prices. The index for gasoline rose 8.0 and 10.1 percent in March and April, respectively. (Prior to seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices rose 9.7 and 12.8 percent, respectively, in March and April.) In April, the indexes for new vehicles and for used cars and trucks each declined for the fourth consecutive month, down 0.2 and 0.5 percent, respectively. Airline fares increased for the fourth consecutive month, up 0.9 percent in April, following declines in each of the last six months of 2001. The medical care index rose 0.5 percent in April to a level 4.6 percent above its level a year ago. The index for medical care commodities increased 0.2 percent. The index for medical care services rose 0.3 percent in April. Charges for professional services rose 0.3 percent and those for hospital and related services increased 1.1 percent. Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / June 2002 3 Georgia Index of Economic Indicators 197.7 Leading indicators Coincident indicators 173.0 148.3 123.7 99.0 1987-88 = 100 74.4 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 Georgia's economy unable to post strong signs of improvement Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted. *** The Georgia Department of Labor's Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) moved downward to 175.5 in April from a revised 175.9 in March, after seasonal adjustment. The leading economic indicator was prevented from advancing in April due to increased initial jobless claims (up 18.4 percent) and declines in new business corporations filed with the state (down 26.4 percent). Other sectors in the LEI made modest gains except for the value of nonresidential construction, which surged 86.6 percent after dropping 49.5 percent in March. The index of Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI) posted Recent 12 Months 184.7 Leading Coincident 177.8 170.9 164.0 157.1 1987-88 =100 150.2 M J J A S O N D J F M A The Leading Index reflects activity that will impact the economy for a duration of three to six months into the future. Coincident indicators measure current conditions. a small gain in April, up 0.4 percent to 157.6, from a revised 156.8 in March, after seasonal adjustment. The CEI managed to move into positive territory in April after contracting the previous three months. The drop in unemployment, coupled with gains in the retail employment sector, assisted in moving the indicator upward. State revenues increased 7.3 percent in April, reversing March's decline. Georgia's economy has not been able to post strong signs of improvement. However, various sectors have managed to show positive gains sparingly. 4 Georgia Economic Indicators / June 2002 Georgia Department of Labor Data Summary April 2002 Georgia Economic Indicators Seasonally Adjusted Apr 2002 Mar 2002 Apr 2001 Percent Change Mar 2002 to Apr 2002 Percent Change Apr 2001 to Apr 2002 Nonagricultural Employment 3,886,751 3,873,452 3,982,787 0.34 -2.41 Retail Employment 706,502 700,432 720,263 0.87 -1.91 Manufacturing Employment 534,915 535,800 556,407 -0.17 -3.86 Manufacturing Workweek 43.0 42.9 39.2 0.35 9.80 Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $564.51 $564.83 $513.66 -0.06 9.90 Deflated Manufacturing Earnings $313.96 $315.90 $290.37 -0.61 8.13 Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled 10,184 10,088 10,485 0.95 -2.87 Initial Unemployment Claims 50,568 42,701 52,785 18.43 -4.20 Continued Unemployment Claims 388,590 299,206 258,887 29.87 50.10 Unemployment Rate (not seasonally adjusted) 4.2% 4.6% 3.5% Insured Unemployment Rate 2.09% 2.05% 1.35% New Motor Vehicle Sales 48,167 44,279 46,979 8.78 2.53 Residential Construction (building permits) 8,138 8,118 7,566 0.25 7.57 Nonresidential Construction (dollar value) $495,148,000 $265,245,000 $572,387,000 86.68 -13.49 Deflated Nonresidential Construction $408,538,000 $219,210,700 $483,843,600 86.37 -15.56 New Business Corporations 4,129 5,617 4,513 -26.49 -8.50 Total State Revenues $890,580,000 $829,956,000 $989,987,000 7.30 -10.04 Deflated Total State Revenues $495,317,000 $464,181,200 $559,630,900 6.71 -11.49 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / June 2002 5 Georgia Economic Indicators Nonagricultural Employment 4.03 2000-2001 2001-2002 3.99 3.95 3.90 3.86 3.82 M J J A S O N D J F M A Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr 2000-2001 3,951,406 3,955,191 3,956,277 3,968,522 3,970,521 3,971,120 3,973,532 3,979,488 3,969,680 3,977,192 3,983,939 3,982,787 2001-2002 3,974,909 3,971,332 3,960,068 3,945,137 3,935,987 3,942,193 3,906,082 3,892,867 3,872,285 3,880,687 3,873,452 3,886,751 MILLIONS Retail Employment 729.8 2000-2001 2001-2002 722.2 714.6 THOUSANDS 707.0 699.3 691.7 M J J A S O N D J F M A Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr 2000-2001 713,348 713,479 714,963 716,620 716,140 716,184 719,345 721,436 718,082 717,582 719,611 720,263 2001-2002 720,417 718,372 713,422 713,207 711,789 717,621 712,091 711,426 706,291 702,564 700,432 706,502 Manufacturing Employment 605 2000-2001 2001-2002 590 575 THOUSANDS 560 545 530 515 M J J A S O N D J F M A 6 Georgia Economic Indicators / June 2002 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2000-2001 588,489 587,948 582,865 582,507 579,493 576,410 574,233 572,476 568,517 565,865 563,555 556,407 2001-2002 551,136 547,482 547,243 543,104 541,888 541,929 533,672 538,342 537,895 539,768 535,800 534,915 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators Manufacturing Workweek 44.7 2000-2001 2001-2002 43.3 41.9 HOURS 40.5 39.1 37.7 M J J A S O N D J F M A Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2000-2001 41.0 41.2 41.3 41.2 41.1 41.3 41.2 41.1 41.0 40.4 40.5 39.2 2001-2002 40.2 40.5 40.6 41.3 41.2 40.6 40.6 40.3 42.8 41.8 42.9 43.0 Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $584 2000-2001 2001-2002 $566 DOLLARS $548 $530 $512 $494 M J J A S O N D J F M A Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2000-2001 $523.51 529.04 534.27 538.17 538.92 545.68 547.03 538.96 533.25 530.49 529.46 513.66 2001-2002 $524.54 532.20 531.66 536.72 537.84 526.74 523.65 526.39 555.99 558.71 564.83 564.51 Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings DOLLARS $329 2000-2001 2001-2002 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted $318 Month 2000-2001 2001-2002 $308 $298 $287 $277 M J J A S O N D J F M A May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr $305.61 307.05 309.54 311.44 310.26 313.61 314.20 309.75 304.54 301.76 300.49 290.37 $295.18 298.99 299.53 302.38 301.65 296.42 295.18 297.90 313.94 314.24 315.90 313.96 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / June 2002 7 Georgia Economic Indicators Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled* 23.5 2000-2001 2001-2002 19.1 THOUSANDS 14.6 10.1 5.7 1.2 M J J A S O N D J F M A * Jobs listed with the Georgia Department of Labor Initial Unemployment Claims 96.0 2000-2001 2001-2002 78.0 THOUSANDS 59.9 41.9 23.9 5.9 M J J A S O N D J F M A Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2000-2001 17,965 16,512 16,416 16,105 14,415 13,509 12,513 11,504 11,144 11,717 11,033 10,485 2001-2002 9,536 8,113 8,655 8,801 7,642 7,647 7,307 6,863 8,463 9,031 10,088 10,184 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2000-2001 27,835 30,493 31,766 33,237 34,242 36,886 43,958 44,720 50,402 46,055 47,300 52,785 2001-2002 58,261 53,061 59,542 49,355 50,093 73,209 64,401 47,878 55,134 43,148 42,701 50,568 Continued Unemployment Claims 505.2 2000-2001 2001-2002 408.1 THOUSANDS 311.1 214.0 117.0 19.9 M J J A S O N D J F M A 8 Georgia Economic Indicators / June 2002 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2000-2001 150,682 137,452 151,158 148,693 151,634 181,147 165,718 164,512 211,730 196,795 185,827 258,887 2001-2002 242,095 251,027 282,298 263,622 272,945 370,414 324,446 360,381 316,501 326,290 299,206 388,590 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate * 5.1 2000-2001 2001-2002 4.6 PERCENTAGES 4.2 3.7 3.2 2.7 M J J A S O N D J F M A * Not Seasonally Adjusted Insured Unemployment Rate 2.76 2000-2001 2001-2002 2.26 PERCENTAGES 1.76 1.26 0.76 0.26 M J J A S O N D J F M A Monthly Data Not Seasonally Adjusted Month M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr 2000-2001 3.5 % 4.3 4.0 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.5 2001-2002 3.5 % 4.2 4.0 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.2 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr 2000-2001 0.83 % 0.87 0.91 0.97 0.95 0.94 1.03 1.21 1.19 1.23 1.29 1.35 2001-2002 1.48 % 1.56 1.73 1.64 1.72 1.92 2.03 2.09 2.22 2.04 2.05 2.09 New Motor Vehicle Sales 62 2000-2001 2001-2002 55 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month 2000-2001 2001-2002 THOUSANDS 48 42 35 28 M J J A S O N D J F M A M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr 50,998 46,247 48,402 53,062 45,375 45,510 44,190 37,137 52,597 42,961 47,370 46,979 48,748 43,724 47,397 49,695 49,277 49,573 48,849 37,638 46,262 41,086 44,279 48,167 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / June 2002 9 Georgia Economic Indicators Residential Construction 10,106 2000-2001 2001-2002 9,251 HOUSEHOLD UNITS 8,396 7,541 6,686 5,831 M J J A S O N D J F M A Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2000-2001 8,114 7,862 7,637 7,442 7,590 7,110 7,265 7,293 8,434 7,897 7,192 7,566 2001-2002 8,313 9,129 8,400 7,768 6,920 7,370 6,928 6,997 7,711 7,698 8,118 8,138 Nonresidential Construction $814 2000-2001 2001-2002 $670 $525 MILLIONS $380 $235 $91 M J J A S O N D J F M A Deflated Nonresidential Construction $720 2000-2001 2001-2002 $585 $451 MILLIONS $317 $183 $48 M J J A S O N D J F M A 10 Georgia Economic Indicators / June 2002 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2000-2001 $589,272,000 629,543,000 384,390,000 405,932,000 567,269,000 544,494,000 372,176,000 485,732,000 565,448,000 461,292,000 431,267,000 572,387,000 2001-2002 $432,484,000 475,670,000 496,336,000 471,396,000 529,509,000 512,544,000 619,902,000 323,839,000 501,561,000 525,956,000 265,245,000 495,148,000 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr 2000-2001 $513,303,100 546,953,100 332,229,900 350,545,800 489,446,900 468,180,600 319,190,400 415,510,700 481,642,200 391,921,800 363,938,400 483,843,600 2001-2002 $364,657,700 399,722,700 417,791,200 395,466,400 443,474,900 426,054,900 514,441,500 268,300,700 414,170,900 433,957,100 219,210,700 408,538,000 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators New Business Corporations* 6,725 2000-2001 2001-2002 5,750 CHARTERS 4,775 3,800 2,825 1,850 M J J A S O N D J F M A * Includes limited liability companies Total State Revenues $1,683 2000-2001 2001-2002 $1,457 $1,232 MILLIONS $1,006 $780 $555 M J J A S O N D J F M A Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Ap r 2000-2001 5,285 4,692 4,128 4,858 4,271 4,654 4,806 4,611 4,859 4,544 5,039 4,513 2001-2002 4,718 4,721 4,442 5,605 4,161 4,742 2,931 3,039 5,348 5,085 5,617 4,129 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr 2000-2001 $1,346,521,000 1,033,355,000 1,125,837,000 1,180,082,000 1,135,949,000 1,181,132,000 1,132,895,000 1,133,560,000 1,342,191,000 1,124,170,000 926,149,000 989,987,000 2001-2002 $1,428,144,000 1,226,480,000 1,062,372,000 1,099,959,000 1,062,069,000 1,092,639,000 1,086,140,000 1,067,092,000 1,253,033,000 1,049,479,000 829,956,000 890,580,000 Deflated Total State Revenues $940 2000-2001 2001-2002 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted MILLIONS $819 $697 $575 $453 $331 M J J A S O N D J F M A Month M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr 2000-2001 $786,060,100 599,741,700 652,281,000 682,917,800 653,971,800 678,811,500 650,715,100 651,471,300 766,528,300 639,459,600 525,623,700 559,630,900 2001-2002 $803,682,600 689,033,700 598,519,400 619,695,200 595,664,000 614,878,400 612,254,800 603,900,400 707,528,500 590,258,200 464,181,200 495,317,000 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / J une 2002 11 To receive a free subscription to this publication, please complete and mail this form Mail to: If you prefer, you may e-mail your request to bill.webb@dol.state.ga.us Bill Webb Workforce Information and Analysis Georgia Department of Labor 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