Georgia economic indicators, monthly report [Vol. 8, no. 12 (Feb. 2003)]

GEORGIA

Economic Indicators

A Monthly Report of Georgia State Labor Market and Economic Trends

February 2003

Volume 8, Issue 12

Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner

Georgia Economic Indicators
Monthly Report December 2002 Data
Volume 8, Issue 12 February 2003

Cover art: Gilbert Lambuth College, Augusta, Georgia by Huey J. Theus, Mableton, Georgia
Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177.
Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us

Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner

Equal Opportunity Employer/Programs - Auxiliary Aids and Services Available Upon Request to Individuals With Disabilities

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / February 2003

Introduction

G eorgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is designed to provide in a single publication data on a
number of indicators used to measure movement of the state's economy.
The indicators have been collected and disseminated for many years by state and federal governments and private agencies, but not under a single cover. Contributing agencies include Georgia's Department of Labor, Department of Revenue and Office of Secretary of State, the U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the F.W. Dodge Company.
All data except those contained in the U.S. Consumer Price Index chart on Page 3 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data that have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars.
Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually in March.
The purpose of the publications is to serve the business and professional communities, economic developers, economists, educators and others who have need for information on state economic trends.

Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning Georgia economic Indicators, Monthly Report and Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Bill Webb, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177.

Data Sources

Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Employment, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Retail Employment, Manufacturing Employment and Manufacturing Workweek -- Georgia Department of Labor
Consumer Price Index -- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, adapted from commentary by Michael Wald
New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue
New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State
Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce
Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group
* Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center

2 Georgia Economic Indicators / February 2003

Georgia Department of Labor

Consumer Price Index

YEAR 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

JAN
109.6 111.2 115.7 121.1 127.4 134.6 138.1 142.6 146.2 150.3 154.4 159.1 161.6 164.3 168.7 175.1 177.1

FEB
109.3 111.6 116.0 121.6 128.0 134.8 138.6 143.1 146.7 150.9 154.9 159.6 161.9 164.5 169.7 175.8 177.8

MAR
108.8 112.1 116.5 122.3 128.7 135.0 139.3 143.6 147.2 151.4 155.7 160.0 162.2 165.0 171.1 176.2 178.8

APR MAY
108.6 108.9 112.7 113.1 117.1 117.5 123.1 123.8 128.9 129.2 135.2 135.6 139.5 139.7 144.0 144.2 147.4 147.5 151.9 152.2 156.3 156.6 160.2 160.1 162.5 162.8 166.2 166.2 171.2 171.3 176.9 177.7 179.8 179.8

JUN
109.5 113.5 118.0 124.1 129.9 136.0 140.2 144.4 148.0 152.5 156.7 160.3 163.0 166.2 172.3 178.0 179.9

JUL
109.5 113.8 118.5 124.4 130.4 136.2 140.5 144.4 148.4 152.5 157.0 160.5 163.2 166.7 172.6 177.5 180.1

AUG
109.7 114.4 119.0 124.6 131.6 136.6 140.9 144.8 149.0 152.9 157.3 160.8 163.4 167.1 172.8 177.5 180.7

SEP
110.2 115.0 119.8 125.0 132.7 137.2 141.3 145.1 149.4 153.2 157.8 161.2 163.6 167.9 173.7 178.3 181.0

OCT
110.3 115.3 120.2 125.0 133.5 137.4 141.9 145.7 149.5 153.7 158.3 161.6 164.0 168.2 174.0 177.7 181.3

Chart is not seasonally adjusted

NOV DEC AVG

CPI RATE

110.4 110.5 109.6

1.1%

115.4 115.4 113.6

4.4%

120.3 120.5 118.3

4.4%

125.9 126.1 124.0

4.6%

133.8 133.8 130.7

6.1%

137.8 137.9 136.2

3.1%

142.0 141.9 140.3

2.9%

145.8 145.8 144.5

2.7%

149.7 149.7 148.2

2.7%

153.6 153.5 152.4

2.5%

158.6 158.6 156.9

3.3%

161.5 161.3 160.5

1.7%

164.0 163.9 163.0

1.6%

168.3 168.3 166.6

2.7%

174.1 174.0 172.1

3.4%

177.4 176.7 177.1

1.6%

181.3 180.9 179.9

2.4%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics @ www.bls.gov/cpi/

CPI increases 2.4 percent in 2002

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.2 percent in December, before seasonal adjustment, reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The December level of 180.9 (1982-84=100) was 2.4 percent higher than its level in December 2001.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) also declined 0.2 percent in December, prior to seasonal adjustment. The December level of 177.0 was 2.4 percent higher than the index in December 2001. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U rose 0.1 percent in December, the same as in November.
Consumer prices rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 1.8 percent in the fourth quarter. This followed increases in the first three quarters at annual rates of 3.0, 2.5, and 2.5 percent, respectively. For the 12month period ending in December, the CPI rose 2.4 percent.

Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U advanced at a 1.5 percent SAAR in the fourth quarter, following increases at rates of 2.1, 1.9, and 2.3 percent in the first three quarters of 2002. The 1.9 percent rise in 2002 compares with a 2.7 percent increase in 2001.
The index for housing rose 0.2 percent in December. Shelter costs, which increased 0.3 percent in November, advanced 0.2 percent in December. The index for fuels and utilities rose 0.5 percent in December. The index for household furnishings and operations declined 0.5 percent in December and 1.5 percent in 2002.
The transportation index declined 0.3 percent in December. The index for gasoline fell 1.4 percent in December, but was 24.8 percent higher than in December 2001. The index for new vehicles decreased 0.4 percent in December and during the last 12 months has fallen 2.0 percent.

Airline fares, which had registered declines in each of the three preceding months, increased 0.4 percent in December, but were 2.4 percent lower than a year ago.
The index for apparel declined 0.5 percent in December. During the 12-month period ended in December, apparel prices declined 1.8 percent, their fifth annual decline.
Medical care costs rose 0.3 percent in December. The index for medical care commodities was virtually unchanged. The index for medical care services rose 0.4 percent in December. Charges for professional services and for hospital and related services increased 0.4 and 0.7 percent, respectively. In the 12 months ended in December 2002, the index for medical care rose 5.0 percent after increasing 4.7 percent in 2001.

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / February 2003 3

Georgia Index of Economic Indicators

207.5

Leading indicators Coincident indicators

180.9

154.3

127.6

101.0

1987-88 = 100

74.4

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

Georgia's economic indicators hit soft spot in the economy

Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted.
***
The Georgia Department of Labor's Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), declined 0.2 percent to 179.1 in December, from a revised 179.7 in November, after seasonal adjustment.
Initial jobless claims grew in December (up 51.5 percent) posting its largest increase in 2002, dimming hopes of a stabilizing job market. Continued unemployment claims also increased in December (up 22.9 percent). Commercial construction ended the year negative (down 17.1 percent from the previous month) after increasing in September, October and November.
New businesses filed with the state declined 4.5 percent. Sales of new vehicles (up 9.3 percent) and

Recent 12 Months

187.6

Leading Coincident

180.2

172.7

165.2

157.7

1987-88 =100

150.2

J

F MAM J

J

ASOND

residential construction (up 6.5 percent) were the only positive contributors to the index in December.
The Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI) also declined in December, down 1.2 percent to

155.7 from a revised 157.7 in November, after seasonal adjustment.
An increase in insured unemployment and the state's jobless rate was enough to turn the CEI negative in December. Nonagricultural employment declined 0.2 percent in December as other sectors of the index posted marginal increases. Total state revenue increased 0.8 percent and retail employment moved ahead 0.3 percent.
Georgia's economy continues to show signs of softness and sluggish growth. Hopes of a more robust recovery have been overwhelmed by uncertainty, corporate reorganizations and geopolitical risks.

4 Georgia Economic Indicators / February 2003

Georgia Department of Labor

Data Summary

December 2002

Georgia Economic Indicators

Seasonally Adjusted

Dec 2002

Nov 2002

Dec 2001

Percent Change Nov 2002
to Dec 2002

Percent Change Dec 2001
to Dec 2002

Nonagricultural Employment

3,850,538

3,861,890

3,892,867

-0.29

-1.09

Retail Employment

689,685

687,555

711,426

0.31

-3.06

Manufacturing Employment

522,663

529,771

538,342

-1.34

-2.91

Manufacturing Workweek

42.8

42.7

40.3

0.08

6.04

Weekly Manufacturing Earnings

$569.77

$557.81

$526.39

2.14

8.24

Deflated Manufacturing Earnings

$314.97

$307.67

$297.90

2.37

5.73

Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled

9,633

10,064

6,863

-4.28

40.36

Initial Unemployment Claims

62,636

41,342

47,878

51.51

30.82

Continued Unemployment Claims

342,052

278,109

360,381

22.99

-5.09

Unemployment Rate (not seasonally adjusted)

4.6%

4.4%

4.3%

Insured Unemployment Rate

2.19%

1.83%

2.09%

New Motor Vehicle Sales

40,149

36,732

37,638

9.30

6.67

Residential Construction (building permits)

7,439

6,983

6,997

6.53

6.31

Nonresidential Construction (dollar value) $429,934,000 $518,958,000 $323,839,000

-17.15

32.76

Deflated Nonresidential Construction

$347,281,100 $420,890,500 $269,416,800

-17.49

28.90

New Business Corporations

4,761

4,989

3,039

-4.58

56.65

Total State Revenues

$1,097,937,000 $1,088,228,000 $1,067,092,000

0.89

2.89

Deflated Total State Revenues

$606,930,300 $600,236,100 $603,900,400

1.12

0.50

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / February 2003 5

Georgia Economic Indicators

Nonagricultural Employment

4.03

2001

2002

3.99

3.94

3.90

3.85

3.81

J

F

MAM

J

J

A SO

ND

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2001
3,969,680 3,977,192 3,983,939 3,982,787 3,974,909 3,971,332 3,960,068 3,945,137 3,935,987 3,942,193 3,906,082 3,892,867

2002
3,872,285 3,880,687 3,873,452 3,889,756 3,887,840 3,880,325 3,869,148 3,860,451 3,858,323 3,853,899 3,861,890 3,850,538

MILLIONS

Retail Employment

735.0

2001

2002

723.0

711.0

THOUSANDS

699.0

687.0

675.0 J F MA M J J A SO N D

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2001
718,082 717,582 719,611 720,263 720,417 718,372 713,422 713,207 711,789 717,621 712,091 711,426

2002
706,291 702,564 700,432 708,212 701,508 696,824 700,238 695,370 691,647 687,251 687,555 689,685

Manufacturing Employment

588

2001

2002

571

555

THOUSANDS

538

522

505 J FMAMJ JA SOND
6 Georgia Economic Indicators / February 2003

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2001 568,517 565,865 563,555 556,407 551,136 547,482 547,243 543,104 541,888 541,929 533,672 538,342

2002 537,895 539,768 535,800 537,020 538,761 540,368 536,643 537,333 536,738 532,235 529,771 522,663

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators

Manufacturing Workweek

45.2

2001

2002

43.7

42.1

HOURS

40.6

39.1

37.6

J

F

MA M J

J

A

S

O

N

D

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jan
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2001
41.0
40.4 40.5 39.2 40.2 40.5 40.6 41.3 41.2 40.6 40.6 40.3

2002
42.8
41.8 42.9 43.0 43.1 43.4 42.4 43.5 43.8 43.3 42.7 42.8

Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings

$591

2001

2002

$572

DOLLARS

$552

$533

$513

$494 J F MA M J J A SO N D

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month Jan
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2001 $533.25
530.49 529.46 513.66 524.54 532.20 531.66 536.72 537.84 526.74 523.65 526.39

2002 $555.99
558.71 564.83 558.04 559.24 563.70 550.42 561.90 572.71 561.26 557.81 569.77

Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings

DOLLARS

$329

2001

2002

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

$319

Month Jan

2001 $304.54

2002 $313.94

$309 $299 $289 $279

Feb

301.76

314.24

Mar

300.49

315.90

Apr

290.37

310.37

May

295.18

311.03

Jun

298.99

313.34

Jul

299.53

305.62

Aug

302.38

310.96

Sep

301.65

316.41

Oct

296.42

309.57

Nov

295.18

307.67

Dec

297.90

314.97

J

F

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J

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N

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Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / February 2003 7

Georgia Economic Indicators

Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled*

17.3

2001

2002

13.8

THOUSANDS

10.4

6.9

3.5

0.0 J F MA M J J A SO N D * Jobs listed with the Georgia Department of Labor

Initial Unemployment Claims

95.0

2001

2002

80.0

THOUSANDS

65.0

50.0

35.0

20.0

J

F

MAM J

J

A

S

O

N

D

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month Jan
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2001 11,144
11,717 11,033 10,485 9,536 8,113 8,655 8,801 7,642 7,647 7,307 6,863

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month

2001

Jan

50,402

Feb

46,055

Mar

47,300

Apr

52,785

May

58,261

Jun

53,061

Jul

59,542

Aug

49,355

Sep

50,093

Oct

73,209

Nov

64,401

Dec

47,878

2002 8,463 9,031 10,088 10,184 9,923 9,924 10,766 10,412 9,830 10,856 10,064 9,633
2002 55,134 43,148 42,701 50,568 48,023 44,197 44,364 42,048 46,420 51,084 41,342 62,636

Continued Unemployment Claims

485

2001

2002

400

THOUSANDS

315

230

145

60

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

8 Georgia Economic Indicators / February 2003

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jan
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2001
211,730
196,795 185,827 258,887 242,095 251,027 282,298 263,622 272,945 370,414 324,446 360,381

2002
316,501
326,290 299,206 388,590 308,224 306,589 309,959 285,241 354,363 303,648 278,109 342,052

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate *

5.9

2001

2002

5.2

PERCENTAGES

4.6

4.0

3.3

2.7

J

F

MAM

J

J

A SO

ND

* Not Seasonally Adjusted

Monthly Data
Not Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jan
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2001
3.5 %
3.7 3.7 3.5 3.6 4.5 4.3 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.3 4.3

2002
4.4 % 4.5 4.6 4.2 4.5 5.2 4.9 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.4 4.6

Insured Unemployment Rate

3.00

2001

2002

2.50

PERCENTAGES

2.00

1.50

1.00

0.50

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jan
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2001
1.19 %
1.23 1.29 1.35 1.48 1.56 1.73 1.64 1.72 1.92 2.03 2.09

2002
2.22 % 2.04 2.05 2.09 1.97 1.90 1.71 1.77 1.95 1.90 1.83 2.19

New Motor Vehicle Sales

63

2001

2002

56

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month

2001

2002

Jan

52,597

46,262

THOUSANDS

50

Feb

42,961

41,086

Mar

47,370

44,279

Apr

46,979

48,167

43

May

48,748

48,946

Jun

43,724

41,558

Jul

47,397

49,514

Aug

49,695

50,365

37

Sep

49,277

45,953

Oct

49,573

44,131

Nov

48,849

36,732

30

Dec

37,638

40,149

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / February 2003 9

Georgia Economic Indicators

Residential Construction

10,277

2001

2002

9,388

HOUSEHOLD UNITS

8,499

7,609

6,720

5,831 J F MA M J J A SO N D

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month Jan
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2001 8,434
7,897 7,192 7,566 8,313 9,129 8,400 7,768 6,920 7,370 6,928 6,997

2002 7,711
7,698 8,118 8,138 9,273 8,459 9,432 6,795 7,494 8,440 6,983 7,439

Nonresidential Construction

$810

2001

2002

$672

$534

MILLIONS

$396

$258

$120

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

Deflated Nonresidential Construction

$675

2001

2002

$550

$425

MILLIONS

$300

$175

$50

J

F

MAM

J

J

A

SO

ND

10 Georgia Economic Indicators / February 2003

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month Jan
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2001 $565,448,000
461,292,000 431,267,000 572,387,000 432,484,000 475,670,000 496,336,000 471,396,000 529,509,000 512,544,000 619,902,000 323,839,000

2002 $501,561,000
525,956,000 265,245,000 495,148,000 424,528,000 490,410,000 504,031,000 336,173,000 476,951,000 488,906,000 518,958,000 429,934,000

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jan
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2001
$479,599,700
389,934,100 363,631,500 482,213,100 363,431,900 398,050,200 415,691,800 393,814,500 441,257,500 424,291,400 516,585,000 269,416,800

2002
$413,829,200
433,957,100 218,668,600 408,201,200 348,831,600 400,989,400 413,818,600 275,326,000 389,347,800 397,808,000 420,890,500 347,281,100

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators

New Business Corporations*

7,123

2001

2002

6,068

CHARTERS

5,014

3,959

2,905

1,850

J

F

MA

Total State Revenues

$1,683

2001

$1,466

MJ 2002

J

A

S

O

N

D

* Includes limited liability companies

$1,250

MILLIONS

$1,033

$817

$600

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month Jan
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2001 4,859
4,544 5,039 4,513 4,718 4,721 4,442 5,605 4,161 4,742 2,931 3,039

2002 5,348
5,085 5,617 4,129 6,090 4,521 5,202 5,024 4,934 5,406 4,989 4,761

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month Jan
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2001 $1,342,191,000
1,124,170,000 926,149,000 989,987,000
1,428,144,000 1,226,480,000 1,062,372,000 1,099,959,000 1,062,069,000 1,092,639,000 1,086,140,000 1,067,092,000

2002 $1,253,033,000
1,049,479,000 829,956,000 890,580,000
1,379,021,000 1,192,921,000
926,854,000 956,127,000 1,069,718,000 1,012,736,000 1,088,228,000 1,097,937,000

Deflated Total State Revenues

$940

2001

2002

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

MILLIONS

$823

Month Jan

2001 $766,528,300

2002 $707,528,500

$706 $589 $472 $355

Feb

639,459,600

590,258,200

Mar

525,623,700

464,181,200

Apr

559,630,900

495,317,000

May

803,682,600

766,975,000

Jun

689,033,700

663,102,300

Jul

598,519,400

514,633,000

Aug

619,695,200

529,124,000

Sep

595,664,000

591,004,400

Oct

614,878,400

558,596,800

Nov

612,254,800

600,236,100

Dec

603,900,400

606,930,300

J

FMAMJ

J

A

S

O

N

D

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / February 2003 11

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