GEORGIA Economic Indicators A Monthly Report of Georgia State Labor Market and Economic Trends February 2003 Volume 8, Issue 12 Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner Georgia Economic Indicators Monthly Report December 2002 Data Volume 8, Issue 12 February 2003 Cover art: Gilbert Lambuth College, Augusta, Georgia by Huey J. Theus, Mableton, Georgia Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177. Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner Equal Opportunity Employer/Programs - Auxiliary Aids and Services Available Upon Request to Individuals With Disabilities Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / February 2003 Introduction G eorgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is designed to provide in a single publication data on a number of indicators used to measure movement of the state's economy. The indicators have been collected and disseminated for many years by state and federal governments and private agencies, but not under a single cover. Contributing agencies include Georgia's Department of Labor, Department of Revenue and Office of Secretary of State, the U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the F.W. Dodge Company. All data except those contained in the U.S. Consumer Price Index chart on Page 3 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data that have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars. Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually in March. The purpose of the publications is to serve the business and professional communities, economic developers, economists, educators and others who have need for information on state economic trends. Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning Georgia economic Indicators, Monthly Report and Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Bill Webb, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177. Data Sources Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Employment, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Retail Employment, Manufacturing Employment and Manufacturing Workweek -- Georgia Department of Labor Consumer Price Index -- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, adapted from commentary by Michael Wald New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group * Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center 2 Georgia Economic Indicators / February 2003 Georgia Department of Labor Consumer Price Index YEAR 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 JAN 109.6 111.2 115.7 121.1 127.4 134.6 138.1 142.6 146.2 150.3 154.4 159.1 161.6 164.3 168.7 175.1 177.1 FEB 109.3 111.6 116.0 121.6 128.0 134.8 138.6 143.1 146.7 150.9 154.9 159.6 161.9 164.5 169.7 175.8 177.8 MAR 108.8 112.1 116.5 122.3 128.7 135.0 139.3 143.6 147.2 151.4 155.7 160.0 162.2 165.0 171.1 176.2 178.8 APR MAY 108.6 108.9 112.7 113.1 117.1 117.5 123.1 123.8 128.9 129.2 135.2 135.6 139.5 139.7 144.0 144.2 147.4 147.5 151.9 152.2 156.3 156.6 160.2 160.1 162.5 162.8 166.2 166.2 171.2 171.3 176.9 177.7 179.8 179.8 JUN 109.5 113.5 118.0 124.1 129.9 136.0 140.2 144.4 148.0 152.5 156.7 160.3 163.0 166.2 172.3 178.0 179.9 JUL 109.5 113.8 118.5 124.4 130.4 136.2 140.5 144.4 148.4 152.5 157.0 160.5 163.2 166.7 172.6 177.5 180.1 AUG 109.7 114.4 119.0 124.6 131.6 136.6 140.9 144.8 149.0 152.9 157.3 160.8 163.4 167.1 172.8 177.5 180.7 SEP 110.2 115.0 119.8 125.0 132.7 137.2 141.3 145.1 149.4 153.2 157.8 161.2 163.6 167.9 173.7 178.3 181.0 OCT 110.3 115.3 120.2 125.0 133.5 137.4 141.9 145.7 149.5 153.7 158.3 161.6 164.0 168.2 174.0 177.7 181.3 Chart is not seasonally adjusted NOV DEC AVG CPI RATE 110.4 110.5 109.6 1.1% 115.4 115.4 113.6 4.4% 120.3 120.5 118.3 4.4% 125.9 126.1 124.0 4.6% 133.8 133.8 130.7 6.1% 137.8 137.9 136.2 3.1% 142.0 141.9 140.3 2.9% 145.8 145.8 144.5 2.7% 149.7 149.7 148.2 2.7% 153.6 153.5 152.4 2.5% 158.6 158.6 156.9 3.3% 161.5 161.3 160.5 1.7% 164.0 163.9 163.0 1.6% 168.3 168.3 166.6 2.7% 174.1 174.0 172.1 3.4% 177.4 176.7 177.1 1.6% 181.3 180.9 179.9 2.4% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics @ www.bls.gov/cpi/ CPI increases 2.4 percent in 2002 The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.2 percent in December, before seasonal adjustment, reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The December level of 180.9 (1982-84=100) was 2.4 percent higher than its level in December 2001. The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) also declined 0.2 percent in December, prior to seasonal adjustment. The December level of 177.0 was 2.4 percent higher than the index in December 2001. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U rose 0.1 percent in December, the same as in November. Consumer prices rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 1.8 percent in the fourth quarter. This followed increases in the first three quarters at annual rates of 3.0, 2.5, and 2.5 percent, respectively. For the 12month period ending in December, the CPI rose 2.4 percent. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U advanced at a 1.5 percent SAAR in the fourth quarter, following increases at rates of 2.1, 1.9, and 2.3 percent in the first three quarters of 2002. The 1.9 percent rise in 2002 compares with a 2.7 percent increase in 2001. The index for housing rose 0.2 percent in December. Shelter costs, which increased 0.3 percent in November, advanced 0.2 percent in December. The index for fuels and utilities rose 0.5 percent in December. The index for household furnishings and operations declined 0.5 percent in December and 1.5 percent in 2002. The transportation index declined 0.3 percent in December. The index for gasoline fell 1.4 percent in December, but was 24.8 percent higher than in December 2001. The index for new vehicles decreased 0.4 percent in December and during the last 12 months has fallen 2.0 percent. Airline fares, which had registered declines in each of the three preceding months, increased 0.4 percent in December, but were 2.4 percent lower than a year ago. The index for apparel declined 0.5 percent in December. During the 12-month period ended in December, apparel prices declined 1.8 percent, their fifth annual decline. Medical care costs rose 0.3 percent in December. The index for medical care commodities was virtually unchanged. The index for medical care services rose 0.4 percent in December. Charges for professional services and for hospital and related services increased 0.4 and 0.7 percent, respectively. In the 12 months ended in December 2002, the index for medical care rose 5.0 percent after increasing 4.7 percent in 2001. Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / February 2003 3 Georgia Index of Economic Indicators 207.5 Leading indicators Coincident indicators 180.9 154.3 127.6 101.0 1987-88 = 100 74.4 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 Georgia's economic indicators hit soft spot in the economy Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted. *** The Georgia Department of Labor's Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), declined 0.2 percent to 179.1 in December, from a revised 179.7 in November, after seasonal adjustment. Initial jobless claims grew in December (up 51.5 percent) posting its largest increase in 2002, dimming hopes of a stabilizing job market. Continued unemployment claims also increased in December (up 22.9 percent). Commercial construction ended the year negative (down 17.1 percent from the previous month) after increasing in September, October and November. New businesses filed with the state declined 4.5 percent. Sales of new vehicles (up 9.3 percent) and Recent 12 Months 187.6 Leading Coincident 180.2 172.7 165.2 157.7 1987-88 =100 150.2 J F MAM J J ASOND residential construction (up 6.5 percent) were the only positive contributors to the index in December. The Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI) also declined in December, down 1.2 percent to 155.7 from a revised 157.7 in November, after seasonal adjustment. An increase in insured unemployment and the state's jobless rate was enough to turn the CEI negative in December. Nonagricultural employment declined 0.2 percent in December as other sectors of the index posted marginal increases. Total state revenue increased 0.8 percent and retail employment moved ahead 0.3 percent. Georgia's economy continues to show signs of softness and sluggish growth. Hopes of a more robust recovery have been overwhelmed by uncertainty, corporate reorganizations and geopolitical risks. 4 Georgia Economic Indicators / February 2003 Georgia Department of Labor Data Summary December 2002 Georgia Economic Indicators Seasonally Adjusted Dec 2002 Nov 2002 Dec 2001 Percent Change Nov 2002 to Dec 2002 Percent Change Dec 2001 to Dec 2002 Nonagricultural Employment 3,850,538 3,861,890 3,892,867 -0.29 -1.09 Retail Employment 689,685 687,555 711,426 0.31 -3.06 Manufacturing Employment 522,663 529,771 538,342 -1.34 -2.91 Manufacturing Workweek 42.8 42.7 40.3 0.08 6.04 Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $569.77 $557.81 $526.39 2.14 8.24 Deflated Manufacturing Earnings $314.97 $307.67 $297.90 2.37 5.73 Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled 9,633 10,064 6,863 -4.28 40.36 Initial Unemployment Claims 62,636 41,342 47,878 51.51 30.82 Continued Unemployment Claims 342,052 278,109 360,381 22.99 -5.09 Unemployment Rate (not seasonally adjusted) 4.6% 4.4% 4.3% Insured Unemployment Rate 2.19% 1.83% 2.09% New Motor Vehicle Sales 40,149 36,732 37,638 9.30 6.67 Residential Construction (building permits) 7,439 6,983 6,997 6.53 6.31 Nonresidential Construction (dollar value) $429,934,000 $518,958,000 $323,839,000 -17.15 32.76 Deflated Nonresidential Construction $347,281,100 $420,890,500 $269,416,800 -17.49 28.90 New Business Corporations 4,761 4,989 3,039 -4.58 56.65 Total State Revenues $1,097,937,000 $1,088,228,000 $1,067,092,000 0.89 2.89 Deflated Total State Revenues $606,930,300 $600,236,100 $603,900,400 1.12 0.50 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / February 2003 5 Georgia Economic Indicators Nonagricultural Employment 4.03 2001 2002 3.99 3.94 3.90 3.85 3.81 J F MAM J J A SO ND Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2001 3,969,680 3,977,192 3,983,939 3,982,787 3,974,909 3,971,332 3,960,068 3,945,137 3,935,987 3,942,193 3,906,082 3,892,867 2002 3,872,285 3,880,687 3,873,452 3,889,756 3,887,840 3,880,325 3,869,148 3,860,451 3,858,323 3,853,899 3,861,890 3,850,538 MILLIONS Retail Employment 735.0 2001 2002 723.0 711.0 THOUSANDS 699.0 687.0 675.0 J F MA M J J A SO N D Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2001 718,082 717,582 719,611 720,263 720,417 718,372 713,422 713,207 711,789 717,621 712,091 711,426 2002 706,291 702,564 700,432 708,212 701,508 696,824 700,238 695,370 691,647 687,251 687,555 689,685 Manufacturing Employment 588 2001 2002 571 555 THOUSANDS 538 522 505 J FMAMJ JA SOND 6 Georgia Economic Indicators / February 2003 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2001 568,517 565,865 563,555 556,407 551,136 547,482 547,243 543,104 541,888 541,929 533,672 538,342 2002 537,895 539,768 535,800 537,020 538,761 540,368 536,643 537,333 536,738 532,235 529,771 522,663 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators Manufacturing Workweek 45.2 2001 2002 43.7 42.1 HOURS 40.6 39.1 37.6 J F MA M J J A S O N D Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2001 41.0 40.4 40.5 39.2 40.2 40.5 40.6 41.3 41.2 40.6 40.6 40.3 2002 42.8 41.8 42.9 43.0 43.1 43.4 42.4 43.5 43.8 43.3 42.7 42.8 Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $591 2001 2002 $572 DOLLARS $552 $533 $513 $494 J F MA M J J A SO N D Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2001 $533.25 530.49 529.46 513.66 524.54 532.20 531.66 536.72 537.84 526.74 523.65 526.39 2002 $555.99 558.71 564.83 558.04 559.24 563.70 550.42 561.90 572.71 561.26 557.81 569.77 Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings DOLLARS $329 2001 2002 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted $319 Month Jan 2001 $304.54 2002 $313.94 $309 $299 $289 $279 Feb 301.76 314.24 Mar 300.49 315.90 Apr 290.37 310.37 May 295.18 311.03 Jun 298.99 313.34 Jul 299.53 305.62 Aug 302.38 310.96 Sep 301.65 316.41 Oct 296.42 309.57 Nov 295.18 307.67 Dec 297.90 314.97 J F M AM J J A S O N D Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / February 2003 7 Georgia Economic Indicators Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled* 17.3 2001 2002 13.8 THOUSANDS 10.4 6.9 3.5 0.0 J F MA M J J A SO N D * Jobs listed with the Georgia Department of Labor Initial Unemployment Claims 95.0 2001 2002 80.0 THOUSANDS 65.0 50.0 35.0 20.0 J F MAM J J A S O N D Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2001 11,144 11,717 11,033 10,485 9,536 8,113 8,655 8,801 7,642 7,647 7,307 6,863 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month 2001 Jan 50,402 Feb 46,055 Mar 47,300 Apr 52,785 May 58,261 Jun 53,061 Jul 59,542 Aug 49,355 Sep 50,093 Oct 73,209 Nov 64,401 Dec 47,878 2002 8,463 9,031 10,088 10,184 9,923 9,924 10,766 10,412 9,830 10,856 10,064 9,633 2002 55,134 43,148 42,701 50,568 48,023 44,197 44,364 42,048 46,420 51,084 41,342 62,636 Continued Unemployment Claims 485 2001 2002 400 THOUSANDS 315 230 145 60 J F M A M J J A S O N D 8 Georgia Economic Indicators / February 2003 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2001 211,730 196,795 185,827 258,887 242,095 251,027 282,298 263,622 272,945 370,414 324,446 360,381 2002 316,501 326,290 299,206 388,590 308,224 306,589 309,959 285,241 354,363 303,648 278,109 342,052 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate * 5.9 2001 2002 5.2 PERCENTAGES 4.6 4.0 3.3 2.7 J F MAM J J A SO ND * Not Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Data Not Seasonally Adjusted Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2001 3.5 % 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.6 4.5 4.3 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.3 4.3 2002 4.4 % 4.5 4.6 4.2 4.5 5.2 4.9 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.4 4.6 Insured Unemployment Rate 3.00 2001 2002 2.50 PERCENTAGES 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 J F M A M J J A S O N D Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2001 1.19 % 1.23 1.29 1.35 1.48 1.56 1.73 1.64 1.72 1.92 2.03 2.09 2002 2.22 % 2.04 2.05 2.09 1.97 1.90 1.71 1.77 1.95 1.90 1.83 2.19 New Motor Vehicle Sales 63 2001 2002 56 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month 2001 2002 Jan 52,597 46,262 THOUSANDS 50 Feb 42,961 41,086 Mar 47,370 44,279 Apr 46,979 48,167 43 May 48,748 48,946 Jun 43,724 41,558 Jul 47,397 49,514 Aug 49,695 50,365 37 Sep 49,277 45,953 Oct 49,573 44,131 Nov 48,849 36,732 30 Dec 37,638 40,149 J F M A M J J A S O N D Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / February 2003 9 Georgia Economic Indicators Residential Construction 10,277 2001 2002 9,388 HOUSEHOLD UNITS 8,499 7,609 6,720 5,831 J F MA M J J A SO N D Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2001 8,434 7,897 7,192 7,566 8,313 9,129 8,400 7,768 6,920 7,370 6,928 6,997 2002 7,711 7,698 8,118 8,138 9,273 8,459 9,432 6,795 7,494 8,440 6,983 7,439 Nonresidential Construction $810 2001 2002 $672 $534 MILLIONS $396 $258 $120 J F M A M J J A S O N D Deflated Nonresidential Construction $675 2001 2002 $550 $425 MILLIONS $300 $175 $50 J F MAM J J A SO ND 10 Georgia Economic Indicators / February 2003 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2001 $565,448,000 461,292,000 431,267,000 572,387,000 432,484,000 475,670,000 496,336,000 471,396,000 529,509,000 512,544,000 619,902,000 323,839,000 2002 $501,561,000 525,956,000 265,245,000 495,148,000 424,528,000 490,410,000 504,031,000 336,173,000 476,951,000 488,906,000 518,958,000 429,934,000 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2001 $479,599,700 389,934,100 363,631,500 482,213,100 363,431,900 398,050,200 415,691,800 393,814,500 441,257,500 424,291,400 516,585,000 269,416,800 2002 $413,829,200 433,957,100 218,668,600 408,201,200 348,831,600 400,989,400 413,818,600 275,326,000 389,347,800 397,808,000 420,890,500 347,281,100 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators New Business Corporations* 7,123 2001 2002 6,068 CHARTERS 5,014 3,959 2,905 1,850 J F MA Total State Revenues $1,683 2001 $1,466 MJ 2002 J A S O N D * Includes limited liability companies $1,250 MILLIONS $1,033 $817 $600 J F M A M J J A S O N D Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2001 4,859 4,544 5,039 4,513 4,718 4,721 4,442 5,605 4,161 4,742 2,931 3,039 2002 5,348 5,085 5,617 4,129 6,090 4,521 5,202 5,024 4,934 5,406 4,989 4,761 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2001 $1,342,191,000 1,124,170,000 926,149,000 989,987,000 1,428,144,000 1,226,480,000 1,062,372,000 1,099,959,000 1,062,069,000 1,092,639,000 1,086,140,000 1,067,092,000 2002 $1,253,033,000 1,049,479,000 829,956,000 890,580,000 1,379,021,000 1,192,921,000 926,854,000 956,127,000 1,069,718,000 1,012,736,000 1,088,228,000 1,097,937,000 Deflated Total State Revenues $940 2001 2002 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted MILLIONS $823 Month Jan 2001 $766,528,300 2002 $707,528,500 $706 $589 $472 $355 Feb 639,459,600 590,258,200 Mar 525,623,700 464,181,200 Apr 559,630,900 495,317,000 May 803,682,600 766,975,000 Jun 689,033,700 663,102,300 Jul 598,519,400 514,633,000 Aug 619,695,200 529,124,000 Sep 595,664,000 591,004,400 Oct 614,878,400 558,596,800 Nov 612,254,800 600,236,100 Dec 603,900,400 606,930,300 J FMAMJ J A S O N D Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / February 2003 11 To receive a free subscription to this publication, please complete and mail this form Mail to: If you prefer, you may e-mail your request to bill.webb@dol.state.ga.us Bill Webb Workforce Information and Analysis Georgia Department of Labor 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E. 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