Georgia economic indicators, monthly report [Vol. 8, no. 11 (Jan. 2003)]

GEORGIA

Economic Indicators

A Monthly Report of Georgia State Labor Market and Economic Trends

January 2003

Volume 8, Issue 11

Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner

Georgia Economic Indicators
Monthly Report November 2002 Data
Volume 8, Issue 11 January 2003

Cover art: Springfield Baptist Church, Birthplace of Morehouse College Augusta, Georgia
by Huey J. Theus, Mableton, Georgia
Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177.
Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us

Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner

Equal Opportunity Employer/Programs - Auxiliary Aids and Services Available Upon Request to Individuals With Disabilities

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2003

Introduction

G eorgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is designed to provide in a single publication data on a
number of indicators used to measure movement of the state's economy.
The indicators have been collected and disseminated for many years by state and federal governments and private agencies, but not under a single cover. Contributing agencies include Georgia's Department of Labor, Department of Revenue and Office of Secretary of State, the U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the F.W. Dodge Company.
All data except those contained in the U.S. Consumer Price Index chart on Page 3 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data that have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars.
Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually in March.
The purpose of the publications is to serve the business and professional communities, economic developers, economists, educators and others who have need for information on state economic trends.

Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning Georgia economic Indicators, Monthly Report and Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Bill Webb, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177.

Data Sources

Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Employment, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Retail Employment, Manufacturing Employment and Manufacturing Workweek -- Georgia Department of Labor
Consumer Price Index -- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, adapted from commentary by Michael Wald
New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue
New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State
Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce
Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group
* Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center

2 Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2003

Georgia Department of Labor

Consumer Price Index

Chart is not seasonally adjusted

YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC AVG

CPI RATE

1986 109.6 109.3 108.8 108.6 108.9 109.5 109.5 109.7 110.2 110.3 110.4 110.5 109.6 1.1%

1987 111.2 111.6 112.1 112.7 113.1 113.5 113.8 114.4 115.0 115.3 115.4 115.4 113.6 4.4%

1988 115.7 116.0 116.5 117.1 117.5 118.0 118.5 119.0 119.8 120.2 120.3 120.5 118.3 4.4%

1989 121.1 121.6 122.3 123.1 123.8 124.1 124.4 124.6 125.0 125.0 125.9 126.1 124.0 4.6%

1990 127.4 128.0 128.7 128.9 129.2 129.9 130.4 131.6 132.7 133.5 133.8 133.8 130.7 6.1%

1991 134.6 134.8 135.0 135.2 135.6 136.0 136.2 136.6 137.2 137.4 137.8 137.9 136.2 3.1%

1992 138.1 138.6 139.3 139.5 139.7 140.2 140.5 140.9 141.3 141.9 142.0 141.9 140.3 2.9%

1993 142.6 143.1 143.6 144.0 144.2 144.4 144.4 144.8 145.1 145.7 145.8 145.8 144.5 2.7%

1994 146.2 146.7 147.2 147.4 147.5 148.0 148.4 149.0 149.4 149.5 149.7 149.7 148.2 2.7%

1995 150.3 150.9 151.4 151.9 152.2 152.5 152.5 152.9 153.2 153.7 153.6 153.5 152.4 2.5%

1996 154.4 154.9 155.7 156.3 156.6 156.7 157.0 157.3 157.8 158.3 158.6 158.6 156.9 3.3%

1997 159.1 159.6 160.0 160.2 160.1 160.3 160.5 160.8 161.2 161.6 161.5 161.3 160.5 1.7%

1998 161.6 161.9 162.2 162.5 162.8 163.0 163.2 163.4 163.6 164.0 164.0 163.9 163.0 1.6%

1999 164.3 164.5 165.0 166.2 166.2 166.2 166.7 167.1 167.9 168.2 168.3 168.3 166.6 2.7%

2000 168.7 169.7 171.1 171.2 171.3 172.3 172.6 172.8 173.7 174.0 174.1 174.0 172.1 3.4%

2001 175.1 175.8 176.2 176.9 177.7 178.0 177.5 177.5 178.3 177.7 177.4 176.7 177.1 1.6%

2002 177.1 177.8 178.8 179.8 179.8 179.9 180.1 180.7 181.0 181.3 181.3

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics @ www.bls.gov/cpi/

CPI remains unchanged in November

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in November, before seasonal adjustment, as recently reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The November level of 181.3 (1982-84=100) was 2.2 percent higher than its level in November 2001.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) rose 0.1 percent in November, prior to seasonal adjustment. The November level of 177.4 was 2.1 percent higher than the index in November 2001. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U rose 0.1 percent in November, following an increase of 0.3 percent in October.
During the first 11 months of 2002, the CPI-U rose at a 2.6 percent seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). This compares with an increase of 1.6 percent for all of 2001.

The index for housing rose 0.2 percent in November. Shelter costs increased 0.3 percent in November, following 0.2 percent in October. The index for fuels and utilities was unchanged in November. In November, the indexes for electricity and for natural gas declined 0.3 and 0.1 percent, respectively. The index for household furnishings and operations declined 0.1 percent in November.
The transportation index rose 0.6 percent in October, then declined 0.1 percent in November. The index for gasoline registered its first decline since May, down 0.4 percent in November after increasing 3.8 percent in October. The index for new vehicles turned down in November after registering increases of 0.5 and 0.4 percent in September and October, respectively. Airline fares declined for the third

consecutive month, down 0.8 percent in November, and are 3.2 percent lower than a year ago.
The index for apparel registered its first decline since July, down 0.4 percent in November. Prior to seasonal adjustment, apparel prices fell 1.0 percent, reflecting discounting of prices for women's wear.
The medical care index rose 0.6 percent in November to a level 5.0 percent above its level a year ago. The index for medical care commodities increased 0.4 percent. The index for medical care services rose 0.6 in November. Charges for professional services rose 0.3 percent and those for hospital and related services increased 1.2 percent.

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2003 3

Georgia Index of Economic Indicators

207.5

Leading indicators Coincident indicators

180.9

154.3

127.6

101.0

1987-88 = 100

74.4

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

Georgia's economy needs contributions from other sectors

Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted.
***
The Georgia Department of Labor's Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), declined 0.3 percent to 179.5 in November, from 180.5 in October, after seasonal adjustment.
The lead indicator slipped for the second consecutive month marking the largest contraction so far this year. The two main drivers (residential construction and sales of motor vehicles), which have kept the economy afloat this year, took double digit declines in November. Both sectors are projected to slow down in 2003. Residential construction declined 17.2 percent and sales of new motor vehicles dropped 16.7 percent in November. Nonresidential construction and lower initial jobless claims helped to prevent the index from sliding any further.

Recent 12 Months

187.6

Leading Coincident

180.2

172.7

165.2

157.7

1987-88 =100

150.2

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The Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI) remained unchanged in November, bringing the index's 5 month slide to a halt.
Nonagricultural employment increased 0.1 percent in November.

Retail employment remained stable (by losing only 500 jobs statewide) a drastic improvement considering that the sector shed thousands jobs in August, September and October. The manufacturing week continues to remain above 40 hours (since January 2002), which indicates some level of demand exists. However, increased demand has not translated in new jobs, as of yet. Georgia's jobless rate declined in November, down from 4.7 to 4.4 percent. Total state revenue increased 7.4 percent
Georgia's economy has shown signs of moderate improvement. However, gains will have to be more broad based to sustain a recovery over the next year.

4 Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2003

Georgia Department of Labor

Data Summary

November 2002

Georgia Economic Indicators
Seasonally Adjusted

Nov 2002

Oct 2002

Nov 2001

Percent Change Oct 2002
to Nov 2002

Percent Change Nov 2001
to Nov 2002

Nonagricultural Employment

3,860,895

3,853,899

3,906,082

0.18

-1.16

Retail Employment

686,767

687,251

712,091

-0.07

-3.56

Manufacturing Employment

531,770

532,235

533,672

-0.09

-0.36

Manufacturing Workweek

43.0

43.3

40.6

-0.62

6.13

Weekly Manufacturing Earnings

$562.56

$561.26

$523.65

0.23

7.43

Deflated Manufacturing Earnings

$310.29

$309.57

$295.18

0.23

5.12

Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled

10,064

10,856

7,307

-7.30

37.73

Initial Unemployment Claims

41,342

51,084

64,401

-19.07 -35.81

Continued Unemployment Claims

278,109

303,648

324,446

-8.41 -14.28

Unemployment Rate (not seasonally adjusted)

4.4%

4.7%

4.3%

Insured Unemployment Rate

1.83%

1.90%

2.03%

New Motor Vehicle Sales

36,732

44,131

48,849

-16.76 -24.80

Residential Construction (building permits)

6,983

8,440

6,928

-17.26

0.79

Nonresidential Construction (dollar value) $518,958,000 $488,906,000 $619,902,000

6.15 -16.28

Deflated Nonresidential Construction $421,232,100 $397,808,000 $516,585,000

5.89 -18.46

New Business Corporations

4,989

5,406

2,931

-7.70

70.24

Total State Revenues

$1,088,228,000 $1,012,736,000 $1,086,140,000

7.45

0.19

Deflated Total State Revenues

$600,236,100 $558,596,800 $612,254,800

7.45

-1.96

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2003 5

Georgia Economic Indicators

Nonagricultural Employment

4.03

2000-2001

2001-2002

3.99

3.94

3.90

3.85

3.81

DJ

F MA M J

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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

2000-2001
3,979,488 3,969,680 3,977,192 3,983,939 3,982,787 3,974,909 3,971,332 3,960,068 3,945,137 3,935,987 3,942,193 3,906,082

2001-2002
3,892,867 3,872,285 3,880,687 3,873,452 3,889,756 3,887,840 3,880,325 3,869,148 3,860,451 3,858,323 3,853,899 3,860,895

MILLIONS

Retail Employment
733.8 2000-2001
723.4

2001-2002

713.0

THOUSANDS

702.6

692.2

681.9

671.5

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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

2000-2001
721,436 718,082 717,582 719,611 720,263 720,417 718,372 713,422 713,207 711,789 717,621 712,091

2001-2002
711,426 706,291 702,564 700,432 708,212 701,508 696,824 700,238 695,370 691,647 687,251 686,767

Manufacturing Employment

598

2000-2001

2001-2002

581

565

THOUSANDS

548

532

515

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6 Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2003

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

2000-2001
572,476 568,517 565,865 563,555 556,407 551,136 547,482 547,243 543,104 541,888 541,929 533,672

2001-2002
538,342 537,895 539,768 535,800 537,020 538,761 540,368 536,643 537,333 536,738 532,235 531,770

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators

Manufacturing Workweek

45.2

2000-2001

2001-2002

43.7

42.1

HOURS

40.6

39.1

37.6

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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

2000-2001
41.1 41.0 40.4 40.5 39.2 40.2 40.5 40.6 41.3 41.2 40.6 40.6

2001-2002
40.3 42.8 41.8 42.9 43.0 43.1 43.4 42.4 43.5 43.8 43.3 43.0

Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings

$591

2000-2001

2001-2002

$572

DOLLARS

$552

$533

$513

$494

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N

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

2000-2001
$538.96 533.25 530.49 529.46 513.66 524.54 532.20 531.66 536.72 537.84 526.74 523.65

2001-2002
$526.39 555.99 558.71 564.83 558.04 559.24 563.70 550.42 561.90 572.71 561.26 562.56

Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings

$329 $319

2000-2001

2001-2002

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month 2000-2001

2001-2002

DOLLARS

Dec

$309.75

$297.90

$309

Jan

304.54

313.94

Feb

301.76

314.24

$299 $289 $279

Mar

300.49

315.90

Apr

290.37

310.37

May

295.18

311.03

Jun

298.99

313.34

Jul

299.53

305.62

Aug

302.38

310.96

Sep

301.65

316.41

Oct

296.42

309.57

Nov

295.18

310.29

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Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2003 7

Georgia Economic Indicators

Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled*

17.3

2000-2001

2001-2002

13.8

THOUSANDS

10.4

6.9

3.5

0.0

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* Jobs listed with the Georgia Department of Labor

Initial Unemployment Claims

96.0

2000-2001

2001-2002

78.0

THOUSANDS

60.0

42.0

24.0

6.0

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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

2000-2001 11,504 11,144 11,717 11,033 10,485 9,536 8,113 8,655 8,801 7,642 7,647 7,307

2001-2002 6,863 8,463 9,031 10,088 10,184 9,923 9,924 10,766 10,412 9,830 10,856 10,064

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

2000-2001 44,720 50,402 46,055 47,300 52,785 58,261 53,061 59,542 49,355 50,093 73,209 64,401

2001-2002 47,878 55,134 43,148 42,701 50,568 48,023 44,197 44,364 42,048 46,420 51,084 41,342

Continued Unemployment Claims

485

2000-2001

2001-2002

400

THOUSANDS

315

230

145

60

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O

N

8 Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2003

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

2000-2001
164,512 211,730 196,795 185,827 258,887 242,095 251,027 282,298 263,622 272,945 370,414 324,446

2001-2002
360,381 316,501 326,290 299,206 388,590 308,224 306,589 309,959 285,241 354,363 303,648 278,109

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate *
5.9 2000-2001
5.2

2001-2002

PERCENTAGES

4.6

4.0

3.3

2.7 DJ

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* Not Seasonally Adjusted

Insured Unemployment Rate

3.00

2000-2001

2001-2002

2.50

PERCENTAGES

2.00

1.50

1.00

0.50

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Monthly Data
Not Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

2000-2001
3.3 % 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.6 4.5 4.3 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.3

2001-2002
4.3 % 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.2 4.5 5.2 4.9 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.4

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

2000-2001
1.21 % 1.19 1.23 1.29 1.35 1.48 1.56 1.73 1.64 1.72 1.92 2.03

2001-2002
2.09 % 2.22 2.04 2.05 2.09 1.97 1.90 1.71 1.77 1.95 1.90 1.83

New Motor Vehicle Sales

63

2000-2001

2001-2002

56

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month

2000-2001

2001-2002

THOUSANDS

Dec

37,137

37,638

50

Jan

52,597

46,262

Feb

42,961

41,086

M ar

47,370

44,279

Apr

46,979

48,167

43

M ay

48,748

48,946

Jun

43,724

41,558

Jul

47,397

49,514

37

Aug

49,695

50,365

Sep

49,277

45,953

Oct

49,573

44,131

30

Nov

48,849

36,732

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Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2003 9

Georgia Economic Indicators

Residential Construction

10,277

2000-2001

9,388

2001-2002

HOUSEHOLD UNITS

8,499

7,609

6,720

5,831

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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

2000-2001 7,293 8,434 7,897 7,192 7,566 8,313 9,129 8,400 7,768 6,920 7,370 6,928

2001-2002 6,997 7,711 7,698 8,118 8,138 9,273 8,459 9,432 6,795 7,494 8,440 6,983

Nonresidential Construction

$810

2000-2001

2001-2002

$672

$534

MILLIONS

$396

$258

$120

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Deflated Nonresidential Construction

$675

2000-2001

2001-2002

$550

$425

MILLIONS

$300

$175

$50 DJ

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10 Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2003

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

2000-2001
$485,732,000 565,448,000 461,292,000 431,267,000 572,387,000 432,484,000 475,670,000 496,336,000 471,396,000 529,509,000 512,544,000 619,902,000

2001-2002
$323,839,000 501,561,000 525,956,000 265,245,000 495,148,000 424,528,000 490,410,000 504,031,000 336,173,000 476,951,000 488,906,000 518,958,000

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

2000-2001
$414,801,000 479,599,700 389,934,100 363,631,500 482,213,100 363,431,900 398,050,200 415,691,800 393,814,500 441,257,500 424,291,400 516,585,000

2001-2002
$269,416,800 413,829,200 433,957,100 218,668,600 408,201,200 348,831,600 400,989,400 413,818,600 275,326,000 389,347,800 397,808,000 421,232,100

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators

New Business Corporations*

7,123

2000-2001

2001-2002

6,068

CHARTERS

5,014

3,959

2,905

1,850

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Total State Revenues

$1,683

2000-2001

$1,466

AM 2001-2002

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* Includes limited liability companies

$1,250

MILLIONS

$1,033

$817

$600

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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month Dec Jan Feb M ar Ap r M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

2000-2001 4,611 4,859 4,544 5,039 4,513 4,718 4,721 4,442 5,605 4,161 4,742 2,931

2001-2002 3,039 5,348 5,085 5,617 4,129 6,090 4,521 5,202 5,024 4,934 5,406 4,989

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

2000-2001
$1,133,560,000 1,342,191,000 1,124,170,000
926,149,000 989,987,000 1,428,144,000 1,226,480,000 1,062,372,000 1,099,959,000 1,062,069,000 1,092,639,000 1,086,140,000

2001-2002
$1,067,092,000 1,253,033,000 1,049,479,000
829,956,000 890,580,000 1,379,021,000 1,192,921,000 926,854,000 956,127,000 1,069,718,000 1,012,736,000 1,088,228,000

Deflated Total State Revenues

$940

2000-2001

2001-2002

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

MILLIONS

$823

Month

2000-2001

2001-2002

$706 $589 $472 $355

Dec

$651,471,300 $603,900,400

Jan

766,528,300

707,528,500

Feb

639,459,600

590,258,200

M ar

525,623,700

464,181,200

Apr

559,630,900

495,317,000

M ay

803,682,600

766,975,000

Jun

689,033,700

663,102,300

Jul

598,519,400

514,633,000

Aug

619,695,200

529,124,000

Sep

595,664,000

591,004,400

Oct

614,878,400

558,596,800

Nov

612,254,800

600,236,100

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Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2003 11

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