GEORGIA
Economic Indicators
A Monthly Report of Georgia State Labor Market and Economic Trends
January 2003
Volume 8, Issue 11
Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner
Georgia Economic Indicators
Monthly Report November 2002 Data
Volume 8, Issue 11 January 2003
Cover art: Springfield Baptist Church, Birthplace of Morehouse College Augusta, Georgia
by Huey J. Theus, Mableton, Georgia
Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177.
Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us
Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner
Equal Opportunity Employer/Programs - Auxiliary Aids and Services Available Upon Request to Individuals With Disabilities
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2003
Introduction
G eorgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is designed to provide in a single publication data on a
number of indicators used to measure movement of the state's economy.
The indicators have been collected and disseminated for many years by state and federal governments and private agencies, but not under a single cover. Contributing agencies include Georgia's Department of Labor, Department of Revenue and Office of Secretary of State, the U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the F.W. Dodge Company.
All data except those contained in the U.S. Consumer Price Index chart on Page 3 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data that have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars.
Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually in March.
The purpose of the publications is to serve the business and professional communities, economic developers, economists, educators and others who have need for information on state economic trends.
Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning Georgia economic Indicators, Monthly Report and Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Bill Webb, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177.
Data Sources
Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Employment, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Retail Employment, Manufacturing Employment and Manufacturing Workweek -- Georgia Department of Labor
Consumer Price Index -- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, adapted from commentary by Michael Wald
New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue
New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State
Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce
Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group
* Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center
2 Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2003
Georgia Department of Labor
Consumer Price Index
Chart is not seasonally adjusted
YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC AVG
CPI RATE
1986 109.6 109.3 108.8 108.6 108.9 109.5 109.5 109.7 110.2 110.3 110.4 110.5 109.6 1.1%
1987 111.2 111.6 112.1 112.7 113.1 113.5 113.8 114.4 115.0 115.3 115.4 115.4 113.6 4.4%
1988 115.7 116.0 116.5 117.1 117.5 118.0 118.5 119.0 119.8 120.2 120.3 120.5 118.3 4.4%
1989 121.1 121.6 122.3 123.1 123.8 124.1 124.4 124.6 125.0 125.0 125.9 126.1 124.0 4.6%
1990 127.4 128.0 128.7 128.9 129.2 129.9 130.4 131.6 132.7 133.5 133.8 133.8 130.7 6.1%
1991 134.6 134.8 135.0 135.2 135.6 136.0 136.2 136.6 137.2 137.4 137.8 137.9 136.2 3.1%
1992 138.1 138.6 139.3 139.5 139.7 140.2 140.5 140.9 141.3 141.9 142.0 141.9 140.3 2.9%
1993 142.6 143.1 143.6 144.0 144.2 144.4 144.4 144.8 145.1 145.7 145.8 145.8 144.5 2.7%
1994 146.2 146.7 147.2 147.4 147.5 148.0 148.4 149.0 149.4 149.5 149.7 149.7 148.2 2.7%
1995 150.3 150.9 151.4 151.9 152.2 152.5 152.5 152.9 153.2 153.7 153.6 153.5 152.4 2.5%
1996 154.4 154.9 155.7 156.3 156.6 156.7 157.0 157.3 157.8 158.3 158.6 158.6 156.9 3.3%
1997 159.1 159.6 160.0 160.2 160.1 160.3 160.5 160.8 161.2 161.6 161.5 161.3 160.5 1.7%
1998 161.6 161.9 162.2 162.5 162.8 163.0 163.2 163.4 163.6 164.0 164.0 163.9 163.0 1.6%
1999 164.3 164.5 165.0 166.2 166.2 166.2 166.7 167.1 167.9 168.2 168.3 168.3 166.6 2.7%
2000 168.7 169.7 171.1 171.2 171.3 172.3 172.6 172.8 173.7 174.0 174.1 174.0 172.1 3.4%
2001 175.1 175.8 176.2 176.9 177.7 178.0 177.5 177.5 178.3 177.7 177.4 176.7 177.1 1.6%
2002 177.1 177.8 178.8 179.8 179.8 179.9 180.1 180.7 181.0 181.3 181.3
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics @ www.bls.gov/cpi/
CPI remains unchanged in November
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in November, before seasonal adjustment, as recently reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The November level of 181.3 (1982-84=100) was 2.2 percent higher than its level in November 2001.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) rose 0.1 percent in November, prior to seasonal adjustment. The November level of 177.4 was 2.1 percent higher than the index in November 2001. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U rose 0.1 percent in November, following an increase of 0.3 percent in October.
During the first 11 months of 2002, the CPI-U rose at a 2.6 percent seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). This compares with an increase of 1.6 percent for all of 2001.
The index for housing rose 0.2 percent in November. Shelter costs increased 0.3 percent in November, following 0.2 percent in October. The index for fuels and utilities was unchanged in November. In November, the indexes for electricity and for natural gas declined 0.3 and 0.1 percent, respectively. The index for household furnishings and operations declined 0.1 percent in November.
The transportation index rose 0.6 percent in October, then declined 0.1 percent in November. The index for gasoline registered its first decline since May, down 0.4 percent in November after increasing 3.8 percent in October. The index for new vehicles turned down in November after registering increases of 0.5 and 0.4 percent in September and October, respectively. Airline fares declined for the third
consecutive month, down 0.8 percent in November, and are 3.2 percent lower than a year ago.
The index for apparel registered its first decline since July, down 0.4 percent in November. Prior to seasonal adjustment, apparel prices fell 1.0 percent, reflecting discounting of prices for women's wear.
The medical care index rose 0.6 percent in November to a level 5.0 percent above its level a year ago. The index for medical care commodities increased 0.4 percent. The index for medical care services rose 0.6 in November. Charges for professional services rose 0.3 percent and those for hospital and related services increased 1.2 percent.
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2003 3
Georgia Index of Economic Indicators
207.5
Leading indicators Coincident indicators
180.9
154.3
127.6
101.0
1987-88 = 100
74.4
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
Georgia's economy needs contributions from other sectors
Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted.
***
The Georgia Department of Labor's Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), declined 0.3 percent to 179.5 in November, from 180.5 in October, after seasonal adjustment.
The lead indicator slipped for the second consecutive month marking the largest contraction so far this year. The two main drivers (residential construction and sales of motor vehicles), which have kept the economy afloat this year, took double digit declines in November. Both sectors are projected to slow down in 2003. Residential construction declined 17.2 percent and sales of new motor vehicles dropped 16.7 percent in November. Nonresidential construction and lower initial jobless claims helped to prevent the index from sliding any further.
Recent 12 Months
187.6
Leading Coincident
180.2
172.7
165.2
157.7
1987-88 =100
150.2
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The Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI) remained unchanged in November, bringing the index's 5 month slide to a halt.
Nonagricultural employment increased 0.1 percent in November.
Retail employment remained stable (by losing only 500 jobs statewide) a drastic improvement considering that the sector shed thousands jobs in August, September and October. The manufacturing week continues to remain above 40 hours (since January 2002), which indicates some level of demand exists. However, increased demand has not translated in new jobs, as of yet. Georgia's jobless rate declined in November, down from 4.7 to 4.4 percent. Total state revenue increased 7.4 percent
Georgia's economy has shown signs of moderate improvement. However, gains will have to be more broad based to sustain a recovery over the next year.
4 Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2003
Georgia Department of Labor
Data Summary
November 2002
Georgia Economic Indicators
Seasonally Adjusted
Nov 2002
Oct 2002
Nov 2001
Percent Change Oct 2002
to Nov 2002
Percent Change Nov 2001
to Nov 2002
Nonagricultural Employment
3,860,895
3,853,899
3,906,082
0.18
-1.16
Retail Employment
686,767
687,251
712,091
-0.07
-3.56
Manufacturing Employment
531,770
532,235
533,672
-0.09
-0.36
Manufacturing Workweek
43.0
43.3
40.6
-0.62
6.13
Weekly Manufacturing Earnings
$562.56
$561.26
$523.65
0.23
7.43
Deflated Manufacturing Earnings
$310.29
$309.57
$295.18
0.23
5.12
Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled
10,064
10,856
7,307
-7.30
37.73
Initial Unemployment Claims
41,342
51,084
64,401
-19.07 -35.81
Continued Unemployment Claims
278,109
303,648
324,446
-8.41 -14.28
Unemployment Rate (not seasonally adjusted)
4.4%
4.7%
4.3%
Insured Unemployment Rate
1.83%
1.90%
2.03%
New Motor Vehicle Sales
36,732
44,131
48,849
-16.76 -24.80
Residential Construction (building permits)
6,983
8,440
6,928
-17.26
0.79
Nonresidential Construction (dollar value) $518,958,000 $488,906,000 $619,902,000
6.15 -16.28
Deflated Nonresidential Construction $421,232,100 $397,808,000 $516,585,000
5.89 -18.46
New Business Corporations
4,989
5,406
2,931
-7.70
70.24
Total State Revenues
$1,088,228,000 $1,012,736,000 $1,086,140,000
7.45
0.19
Deflated Total State Revenues
$600,236,100 $558,596,800 $612,254,800
7.45
-1.96
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2003 5
Georgia Economic Indicators
Nonagricultural Employment
4.03
2000-2001
2001-2002
3.99
3.94
3.90
3.85
3.81
DJ
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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
2000-2001
3,979,488 3,969,680 3,977,192 3,983,939 3,982,787 3,974,909 3,971,332 3,960,068 3,945,137 3,935,987 3,942,193 3,906,082
2001-2002
3,892,867 3,872,285 3,880,687 3,873,452 3,889,756 3,887,840 3,880,325 3,869,148 3,860,451 3,858,323 3,853,899 3,860,895
MILLIONS
Retail Employment
733.8 2000-2001
723.4
2001-2002
713.0
THOUSANDS
702.6
692.2
681.9
671.5
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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
2000-2001
721,436 718,082 717,582 719,611 720,263 720,417 718,372 713,422 713,207 711,789 717,621 712,091
2001-2002
711,426 706,291 702,564 700,432 708,212 701,508 696,824 700,238 695,370 691,647 687,251 686,767
Manufacturing Employment
598
2000-2001
2001-2002
581
565
THOUSANDS
548
532
515
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6 Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2003
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
2000-2001
572,476 568,517 565,865 563,555 556,407 551,136 547,482 547,243 543,104 541,888 541,929 533,672
2001-2002
538,342 537,895 539,768 535,800 537,020 538,761 540,368 536,643 537,333 536,738 532,235 531,770
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators
Manufacturing Workweek
45.2
2000-2001
2001-2002
43.7
42.1
HOURS
40.6
39.1
37.6
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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
2000-2001
41.1 41.0 40.4 40.5 39.2 40.2 40.5 40.6 41.3 41.2 40.6 40.6
2001-2002
40.3 42.8 41.8 42.9 43.0 43.1 43.4 42.4 43.5 43.8 43.3 43.0
Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings
$591
2000-2001
2001-2002
$572
DOLLARS
$552
$533
$513
$494
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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
2000-2001
$538.96 533.25 530.49 529.46 513.66 524.54 532.20 531.66 536.72 537.84 526.74 523.65
2001-2002
$526.39 555.99 558.71 564.83 558.04 559.24 563.70 550.42 561.90 572.71 561.26 562.56
Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings
$329 $319
2000-2001
2001-2002
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month 2000-2001
2001-2002
DOLLARS
Dec
$309.75
$297.90
$309
Jan
304.54
313.94
Feb
301.76
314.24
$299 $289 $279
Mar
300.49
315.90
Apr
290.37
310.37
May
295.18
311.03
Jun
298.99
313.34
Jul
299.53
305.62
Aug
302.38
310.96
Sep
301.65
316.41
Oct
296.42
309.57
Nov
295.18
310.29
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Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2003 7
Georgia Economic Indicators
Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled*
17.3
2000-2001
2001-2002
13.8
THOUSANDS
10.4
6.9
3.5
0.0
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* Jobs listed with the Georgia Department of Labor
Initial Unemployment Claims
96.0
2000-2001
2001-2002
78.0
THOUSANDS
60.0
42.0
24.0
6.0
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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
2000-2001 11,504 11,144 11,717 11,033 10,485 9,536 8,113 8,655 8,801 7,642 7,647 7,307
2001-2002 6,863 8,463 9,031 10,088 10,184 9,923 9,924 10,766 10,412 9,830 10,856 10,064
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
2000-2001 44,720 50,402 46,055 47,300 52,785 58,261 53,061 59,542 49,355 50,093 73,209 64,401
2001-2002 47,878 55,134 43,148 42,701 50,568 48,023 44,197 44,364 42,048 46,420 51,084 41,342
Continued Unemployment Claims
485
2000-2001
2001-2002
400
THOUSANDS
315
230
145
60
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8 Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2003
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
2000-2001
164,512 211,730 196,795 185,827 258,887 242,095 251,027 282,298 263,622 272,945 370,414 324,446
2001-2002
360,381 316,501 326,290 299,206 388,590 308,224 306,589 309,959 285,241 354,363 303,648 278,109
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate *
5.9 2000-2001
5.2
2001-2002
PERCENTAGES
4.6
4.0
3.3
2.7 DJ
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* Not Seasonally Adjusted
Insured Unemployment Rate
3.00
2000-2001
2001-2002
2.50
PERCENTAGES
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
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Monthly Data
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
2000-2001
3.3 % 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.6 4.5 4.3 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.3
2001-2002
4.3 % 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.2 4.5 5.2 4.9 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.4
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
2000-2001
1.21 % 1.19 1.23 1.29 1.35 1.48 1.56 1.73 1.64 1.72 1.92 2.03
2001-2002
2.09 % 2.22 2.04 2.05 2.09 1.97 1.90 1.71 1.77 1.95 1.90 1.83
New Motor Vehicle Sales
63
2000-2001
2001-2002
56
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
2000-2001
2001-2002
THOUSANDS
Dec
37,137
37,638
50
Jan
52,597
46,262
Feb
42,961
41,086
M ar
47,370
44,279
Apr
46,979
48,167
43
M ay
48,748
48,946
Jun
43,724
41,558
Jul
47,397
49,514
37
Aug
49,695
50,365
Sep
49,277
45,953
Oct
49,573
44,131
30
Nov
48,849
36,732
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Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2003 9
Georgia Economic Indicators
Residential Construction
10,277
2000-2001
9,388
2001-2002
HOUSEHOLD UNITS
8,499
7,609
6,720
5,831
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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
2000-2001 7,293 8,434 7,897 7,192 7,566 8,313 9,129 8,400 7,768 6,920 7,370 6,928
2001-2002 6,997 7,711 7,698 8,118 8,138 9,273 8,459 9,432 6,795 7,494 8,440 6,983
Nonresidential Construction
$810
2000-2001
2001-2002
$672
$534
MILLIONS
$396
$258
$120
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Deflated Nonresidential Construction
$675
2000-2001
2001-2002
$550
$425
MILLIONS
$300
$175
$50 DJ
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10 Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2003
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
2000-2001
$485,732,000 565,448,000 461,292,000 431,267,000 572,387,000 432,484,000 475,670,000 496,336,000 471,396,000 529,509,000 512,544,000 619,902,000
2001-2002
$323,839,000 501,561,000 525,956,000 265,245,000 495,148,000 424,528,000 490,410,000 504,031,000 336,173,000 476,951,000 488,906,000 518,958,000
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
2000-2001
$414,801,000 479,599,700 389,934,100 363,631,500 482,213,100 363,431,900 398,050,200 415,691,800 393,814,500 441,257,500 424,291,400 516,585,000
2001-2002
$269,416,800 413,829,200 433,957,100 218,668,600 408,201,200 348,831,600 400,989,400 413,818,600 275,326,000 389,347,800 397,808,000 421,232,100
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators
New Business Corporations*
7,123
2000-2001
2001-2002
6,068
CHARTERS
5,014
3,959
2,905
1,850
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Total State Revenues
$1,683
2000-2001
$1,466
AM 2001-2002
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* Includes limited liability companies
$1,250
MILLIONS
$1,033
$817
$600
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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month Dec Jan Feb M ar Ap r M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
2000-2001 4,611 4,859 4,544 5,039 4,513 4,718 4,721 4,442 5,605 4,161 4,742 2,931
2001-2002 3,039 5,348 5,085 5,617 4,129 6,090 4,521 5,202 5,024 4,934 5,406 4,989
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
2000-2001
$1,133,560,000 1,342,191,000 1,124,170,000
926,149,000 989,987,000 1,428,144,000 1,226,480,000 1,062,372,000 1,099,959,000 1,062,069,000 1,092,639,000 1,086,140,000
2001-2002
$1,067,092,000 1,253,033,000 1,049,479,000
829,956,000 890,580,000 1,379,021,000 1,192,921,000 926,854,000 956,127,000 1,069,718,000 1,012,736,000 1,088,228,000
Deflated Total State Revenues
$940
2000-2001
2001-2002
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
MILLIONS
$823
Month
2000-2001
2001-2002
$706 $589 $472 $355
Dec
$651,471,300 $603,900,400
Jan
766,528,300
707,528,500
Feb
639,459,600
590,258,200
M ar
525,623,700
464,181,200
Apr
559,630,900
495,317,000
M ay
803,682,600
766,975,000
Jun
689,033,700
663,102,300
Jul
598,519,400
514,633,000
Aug
619,695,200
529,124,000
Sep
595,664,000
591,004,400
Oct
614,878,400
558,596,800
Nov
612,254,800
600,236,100
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Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2003 11
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