GEORGIA Economic Indicators A Monthly Report of Georgia State Labor Market and Economic Trends January 2003 Volume 8, Issue 11 Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner Georgia Economic Indicators Monthly Report November 2002 Data Volume 8, Issue 11 January 2003 Cover art: Springfield Baptist Church, Birthplace of Morehouse College Augusta, Georgia by Huey J. Theus, Mableton, Georgia Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177. Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner Equal Opportunity Employer/Programs - Auxiliary Aids and Services Available Upon Request to Individuals With Disabilities Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2003 Introduction G eorgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is designed to provide in a single publication data on a number of indicators used to measure movement of the state's economy. The indicators have been collected and disseminated for many years by state and federal governments and private agencies, but not under a single cover. Contributing agencies include Georgia's Department of Labor, Department of Revenue and Office of Secretary of State, the U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the F.W. Dodge Company. All data except those contained in the U.S. Consumer Price Index chart on Page 3 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data that have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars. Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually in March. The purpose of the publications is to serve the business and professional communities, economic developers, economists, educators and others who have need for information on state economic trends. Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning Georgia economic Indicators, Monthly Report and Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Bill Webb, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177. Data Sources Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Employment, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Retail Employment, Manufacturing Employment and Manufacturing Workweek -- Georgia Department of Labor Consumer Price Index -- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, adapted from commentary by Michael Wald New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group * Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center 2 Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2003 Georgia Department of Labor Consumer Price Index Chart is not seasonally adjusted YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC AVG CPI RATE 1986 109.6 109.3 108.8 108.6 108.9 109.5 109.5 109.7 110.2 110.3 110.4 110.5 109.6 1.1% 1987 111.2 111.6 112.1 112.7 113.1 113.5 113.8 114.4 115.0 115.3 115.4 115.4 113.6 4.4% 1988 115.7 116.0 116.5 117.1 117.5 118.0 118.5 119.0 119.8 120.2 120.3 120.5 118.3 4.4% 1989 121.1 121.6 122.3 123.1 123.8 124.1 124.4 124.6 125.0 125.0 125.9 126.1 124.0 4.6% 1990 127.4 128.0 128.7 128.9 129.2 129.9 130.4 131.6 132.7 133.5 133.8 133.8 130.7 6.1% 1991 134.6 134.8 135.0 135.2 135.6 136.0 136.2 136.6 137.2 137.4 137.8 137.9 136.2 3.1% 1992 138.1 138.6 139.3 139.5 139.7 140.2 140.5 140.9 141.3 141.9 142.0 141.9 140.3 2.9% 1993 142.6 143.1 143.6 144.0 144.2 144.4 144.4 144.8 145.1 145.7 145.8 145.8 144.5 2.7% 1994 146.2 146.7 147.2 147.4 147.5 148.0 148.4 149.0 149.4 149.5 149.7 149.7 148.2 2.7% 1995 150.3 150.9 151.4 151.9 152.2 152.5 152.5 152.9 153.2 153.7 153.6 153.5 152.4 2.5% 1996 154.4 154.9 155.7 156.3 156.6 156.7 157.0 157.3 157.8 158.3 158.6 158.6 156.9 3.3% 1997 159.1 159.6 160.0 160.2 160.1 160.3 160.5 160.8 161.2 161.6 161.5 161.3 160.5 1.7% 1998 161.6 161.9 162.2 162.5 162.8 163.0 163.2 163.4 163.6 164.0 164.0 163.9 163.0 1.6% 1999 164.3 164.5 165.0 166.2 166.2 166.2 166.7 167.1 167.9 168.2 168.3 168.3 166.6 2.7% 2000 168.7 169.7 171.1 171.2 171.3 172.3 172.6 172.8 173.7 174.0 174.1 174.0 172.1 3.4% 2001 175.1 175.8 176.2 176.9 177.7 178.0 177.5 177.5 178.3 177.7 177.4 176.7 177.1 1.6% 2002 177.1 177.8 178.8 179.8 179.8 179.9 180.1 180.7 181.0 181.3 181.3 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics @ www.bls.gov/cpi/ CPI remains unchanged in November The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in November, before seasonal adjustment, as recently reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The November level of 181.3 (1982-84=100) was 2.2 percent higher than its level in November 2001. The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) rose 0.1 percent in November, prior to seasonal adjustment. The November level of 177.4 was 2.1 percent higher than the index in November 2001. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U rose 0.1 percent in November, following an increase of 0.3 percent in October. During the first 11 months of 2002, the CPI-U rose at a 2.6 percent seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). This compares with an increase of 1.6 percent for all of 2001. The index for housing rose 0.2 percent in November. Shelter costs increased 0.3 percent in November, following 0.2 percent in October. The index for fuels and utilities was unchanged in November. In November, the indexes for electricity and for natural gas declined 0.3 and 0.1 percent, respectively. The index for household furnishings and operations declined 0.1 percent in November. The transportation index rose 0.6 percent in October, then declined 0.1 percent in November. The index for gasoline registered its first decline since May, down 0.4 percent in November after increasing 3.8 percent in October. The index for new vehicles turned down in November after registering increases of 0.5 and 0.4 percent in September and October, respectively. Airline fares declined for the third consecutive month, down 0.8 percent in November, and are 3.2 percent lower than a year ago. The index for apparel registered its first decline since July, down 0.4 percent in November. Prior to seasonal adjustment, apparel prices fell 1.0 percent, reflecting discounting of prices for women's wear. The medical care index rose 0.6 percent in November to a level 5.0 percent above its level a year ago. The index for medical care commodities increased 0.4 percent. The index for medical care services rose 0.6 in November. Charges for professional services rose 0.3 percent and those for hospital and related services increased 1.2 percent. Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2003 3 Georgia Index of Economic Indicators 207.5 Leading indicators Coincident indicators 180.9 154.3 127.6 101.0 1987-88 = 100 74.4 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 Georgia's economy needs contributions from other sectors Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted. *** The Georgia Department of Labor's Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), declined 0.3 percent to 179.5 in November, from 180.5 in October, after seasonal adjustment. The lead indicator slipped for the second consecutive month marking the largest contraction so far this year. The two main drivers (residential construction and sales of motor vehicles), which have kept the economy afloat this year, took double digit declines in November. Both sectors are projected to slow down in 2003. Residential construction declined 17.2 percent and sales of new motor vehicles dropped 16.7 percent in November. Nonresidential construction and lower initial jobless claims helped to prevent the index from sliding any further. Recent 12 Months 187.6 Leading Coincident 180.2 172.7 165.2 157.7 1987-88 =100 150.2 D J F MAM J J ASON The Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI) remained unchanged in November, bringing the index's 5 month slide to a halt. Nonagricultural employment increased 0.1 percent in November. Retail employment remained stable (by losing only 500 jobs statewide) a drastic improvement considering that the sector shed thousands jobs in August, September and October. The manufacturing week continues to remain above 40 hours (since January 2002), which indicates some level of demand exists. However, increased demand has not translated in new jobs, as of yet. Georgia's jobless rate declined in November, down from 4.7 to 4.4 percent. Total state revenue increased 7.4 percent Georgia's economy has shown signs of moderate improvement. However, gains will have to be more broad based to sustain a recovery over the next year. 4 Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2003 Georgia Department of Labor Data Summary November 2002 Georgia Economic Indicators Seasonally Adjusted Nov 2002 Oct 2002 Nov 2001 Percent Change Oct 2002 to Nov 2002 Percent Change Nov 2001 to Nov 2002 Nonagricultural Employment 3,860,895 3,853,899 3,906,082 0.18 -1.16 Retail Employment 686,767 687,251 712,091 -0.07 -3.56 Manufacturing Employment 531,770 532,235 533,672 -0.09 -0.36 Manufacturing Workweek 43.0 43.3 40.6 -0.62 6.13 Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $562.56 $561.26 $523.65 0.23 7.43 Deflated Manufacturing Earnings $310.29 $309.57 $295.18 0.23 5.12 Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled 10,064 10,856 7,307 -7.30 37.73 Initial Unemployment Claims 41,342 51,084 64,401 -19.07 -35.81 Continued Unemployment Claims 278,109 303,648 324,446 -8.41 -14.28 Unemployment Rate (not seasonally adjusted) 4.4% 4.7% 4.3% Insured Unemployment Rate 1.83% 1.90% 2.03% New Motor Vehicle Sales 36,732 44,131 48,849 -16.76 -24.80 Residential Construction (building permits) 6,983 8,440 6,928 -17.26 0.79 Nonresidential Construction (dollar value) $518,958,000 $488,906,000 $619,902,000 6.15 -16.28 Deflated Nonresidential Construction $421,232,100 $397,808,000 $516,585,000 5.89 -18.46 New Business Corporations 4,989 5,406 2,931 -7.70 70.24 Total State Revenues $1,088,228,000 $1,012,736,000 $1,086,140,000 7.45 0.19 Deflated Total State Revenues $600,236,100 $558,596,800 $612,254,800 7.45 -1.96 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2003 5 Georgia Economic Indicators Nonagricultural Employment 4.03 2000-2001 2001-2002 3.99 3.94 3.90 3.85 3.81 DJ F MA M J J ASON Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 2000-2001 3,979,488 3,969,680 3,977,192 3,983,939 3,982,787 3,974,909 3,971,332 3,960,068 3,945,137 3,935,987 3,942,193 3,906,082 2001-2002 3,892,867 3,872,285 3,880,687 3,873,452 3,889,756 3,887,840 3,880,325 3,869,148 3,860,451 3,858,323 3,853,899 3,860,895 MILLIONS Retail Employment 733.8 2000-2001 723.4 2001-2002 713.0 THOUSANDS 702.6 692.2 681.9 671.5 D J F MAM J J A S O N Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 2000-2001 721,436 718,082 717,582 719,611 720,263 720,417 718,372 713,422 713,207 711,789 717,621 712,091 2001-2002 711,426 706,291 702,564 700,432 708,212 701,508 696,824 700,238 695,370 691,647 687,251 686,767 Manufacturing Employment 598 2000-2001 2001-2002 581 565 THOUSANDS 548 532 515 D J FMAM J J ASON 6 Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2003 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 2000-2001 572,476 568,517 565,865 563,555 556,407 551,136 547,482 547,243 543,104 541,888 541,929 533,672 2001-2002 538,342 537,895 539,768 535,800 537,020 538,761 540,368 536,643 537,333 536,738 532,235 531,770 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators Manufacturing Workweek 45.2 2000-2001 2001-2002 43.7 42.1 HOURS 40.6 39.1 37.6 D J FMAM J J A S ON Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 2000-2001 41.1 41.0 40.4 40.5 39.2 40.2 40.5 40.6 41.3 41.2 40.6 40.6 2001-2002 40.3 42.8 41.8 42.9 43.0 43.1 43.4 42.4 43.5 43.8 43.3 43.0 Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $591 2000-2001 2001-2002 $572 DOLLARS $552 $533 $513 $494 D J F M A M J J A SO N Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 2000-2001 $538.96 533.25 530.49 529.46 513.66 524.54 532.20 531.66 536.72 537.84 526.74 523.65 2001-2002 $526.39 555.99 558.71 564.83 558.04 559.24 563.70 550.42 561.90 572.71 561.26 562.56 Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $329 $319 2000-2001 2001-2002 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month 2000-2001 2001-2002 DOLLARS Dec $309.75 $297.90 $309 Jan 304.54 313.94 Feb 301.76 314.24 $299 $289 $279 Mar 300.49 315.90 Apr 290.37 310.37 May 295.18 311.03 Jun 298.99 313.34 Jul 299.53 305.62 Aug 302.38 310.96 Sep 301.65 316.41 Oct 296.42 309.57 Nov 295.18 310.29 D J F M A M J J A SO N Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2003 7 Georgia Economic Indicators Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled* 17.3 2000-2001 2001-2002 13.8 THOUSANDS 10.4 6.9 3.5 0.0 D J F MAM J J A S ON * Jobs listed with the Georgia Department of Labor Initial Unemployment Claims 96.0 2000-2001 2001-2002 78.0 THOUSANDS 60.0 42.0 24.0 6.0 D J F MAM J J A S ON Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 2000-2001 11,504 11,144 11,717 11,033 10,485 9,536 8,113 8,655 8,801 7,642 7,647 7,307 2001-2002 6,863 8,463 9,031 10,088 10,184 9,923 9,924 10,766 10,412 9,830 10,856 10,064 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 2000-2001 44,720 50,402 46,055 47,300 52,785 58,261 53,061 59,542 49,355 50,093 73,209 64,401 2001-2002 47,878 55,134 43,148 42,701 50,568 48,023 44,197 44,364 42,048 46,420 51,084 41,342 Continued Unemployment Claims 485 2000-2001 2001-2002 400 THOUSANDS 315 230 145 60 D J F M A M J J A S O N 8 Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2003 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 2000-2001 164,512 211,730 196,795 185,827 258,887 242,095 251,027 282,298 263,622 272,945 370,414 324,446 2001-2002 360,381 316,501 326,290 299,206 388,590 308,224 306,589 309,959 285,241 354,363 303,648 278,109 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate * 5.9 2000-2001 5.2 2001-2002 PERCENTAGES 4.6 4.0 3.3 2.7 DJ F MA M J J A S O N * Not Seasonally Adjusted Insured Unemployment Rate 3.00 2000-2001 2001-2002 2.50 PERCENTAGES 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 D J FM AM J J A S ON Monthly Data Not Seasonally Adjusted Month Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 2000-2001 3.3 % 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.6 4.5 4.3 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.3 2001-2002 4.3 % 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.2 4.5 5.2 4.9 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.4 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 2000-2001 1.21 % 1.19 1.23 1.29 1.35 1.48 1.56 1.73 1.64 1.72 1.92 2.03 2001-2002 2.09 % 2.22 2.04 2.05 2.09 1.97 1.90 1.71 1.77 1.95 1.90 1.83 New Motor Vehicle Sales 63 2000-2001 2001-2002 56 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month 2000-2001 2001-2002 THOUSANDS Dec 37,137 37,638 50 Jan 52,597 46,262 Feb 42,961 41,086 M ar 47,370 44,279 Apr 46,979 48,167 43 M ay 48,748 48,946 Jun 43,724 41,558 Jul 47,397 49,514 37 Aug 49,695 50,365 Sep 49,277 45,953 Oct 49,573 44,131 30 Nov 48,849 36,732 D J F M A M J J A S O N Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2003 9 Georgia Economic Indicators Residential Construction 10,277 2000-2001 9,388 2001-2002 HOUSEHOLD UNITS 8,499 7,609 6,720 5,831 D J F MAM J J A SO N Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 2000-2001 7,293 8,434 7,897 7,192 7,566 8,313 9,129 8,400 7,768 6,920 7,370 6,928 2001-2002 6,997 7,711 7,698 8,118 8,138 9,273 8,459 9,432 6,795 7,494 8,440 6,983 Nonresidential Construction $810 2000-2001 2001-2002 $672 $534 MILLIONS $396 $258 $120 D J F M A M J J A S O N Deflated Nonresidential Construction $675 2000-2001 2001-2002 $550 $425 MILLIONS $300 $175 $50 DJ F MA M J J A S O N 10 Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2003 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 2000-2001 $485,732,000 565,448,000 461,292,000 431,267,000 572,387,000 432,484,000 475,670,000 496,336,000 471,396,000 529,509,000 512,544,000 619,902,000 2001-2002 $323,839,000 501,561,000 525,956,000 265,245,000 495,148,000 424,528,000 490,410,000 504,031,000 336,173,000 476,951,000 488,906,000 518,958,000 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 2000-2001 $414,801,000 479,599,700 389,934,100 363,631,500 482,213,100 363,431,900 398,050,200 415,691,800 393,814,500 441,257,500 424,291,400 516,585,000 2001-2002 $269,416,800 413,829,200 433,957,100 218,668,600 408,201,200 348,831,600 400,989,400 413,818,600 275,326,000 389,347,800 397,808,000 421,232,100 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators New Business Corporations* 7,123 2000-2001 2001-2002 6,068 CHARTERS 5,014 3,959 2,905 1,850 D J FM Total State Revenues $1,683 2000-2001 $1,466 AM 2001-2002 J J ASON * Includes limited liability companies $1,250 MILLIONS $1,033 $817 $600 D J FMAM J J AS ON Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Dec Jan Feb M ar Ap r M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 2000-2001 4,611 4,859 4,544 5,039 4,513 4,718 4,721 4,442 5,605 4,161 4,742 2,931 2001-2002 3,039 5,348 5,085 5,617 4,129 6,090 4,521 5,202 5,024 4,934 5,406 4,989 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 2000-2001 $1,133,560,000 1,342,191,000 1,124,170,000 926,149,000 989,987,000 1,428,144,000 1,226,480,000 1,062,372,000 1,099,959,000 1,062,069,000 1,092,639,000 1,086,140,000 2001-2002 $1,067,092,000 1,253,033,000 1,049,479,000 829,956,000 890,580,000 1,379,021,000 1,192,921,000 926,854,000 956,127,000 1,069,718,000 1,012,736,000 1,088,228,000 Deflated Total State Revenues $940 2000-2001 2001-2002 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted MILLIONS $823 Month 2000-2001 2001-2002 $706 $589 $472 $355 Dec $651,471,300 $603,900,400 Jan 766,528,300 707,528,500 Feb 639,459,600 590,258,200 M ar 525,623,700 464,181,200 Apr 559,630,900 495,317,000 M ay 803,682,600 766,975,000 Jun 689,033,700 663,102,300 Jul 598,519,400 514,633,000 Aug 619,695,200 529,124,000 Sep 595,664,000 591,004,400 Oct 614,878,400 558,596,800 Nov 612,254,800 600,236,100 D J F M AM J J A SO N Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2003 11 To receive a free subscription to this publication, please complete and mail this form Mail to: If you prefer, you may e-mail your request to bill.webb@dol.state.ga.us Bill Webb Workforce Information and Analysis Georgia Department of Labor 148 Andrew 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