Georgia economic indicators, monthly report [Vol. 8, no. 10 (Dec. 2002)]

GEORGIA

Economic Indicators

A Monthly Report of Georgia State Labor Market and Economic Trends

December 2002

Volume 8, Issue 10

Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner

Georgia Economic Indicators
Monthly Report October 2002 Data
Volume 8, Issue 10 December 2002

Cover art: Seney-Stovall Chapel, University of Georgia Athens, Georgia
by Huey J. Theus, Mableton, Georgia
Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177.
Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us

Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner

Equal Opportunity Employer/Programs - Auxiliary Aids and Services Available Upon Request to Individuals With Disabilities

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / December 2002

Introduction

G eorgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is designed to provide in a single publication data on a
number of indicators used to measure movement of the state's economy.
The indicators have been collected and disseminated for many years by state and federal governments and private agencies, but not under a single cover. Contributing agencies include Georgia's Department of Labor, Department of Revenue and Office of Secretary of State, the U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the F.W. Dodge Company.
All data except those contained in the U.S. Consumer Price Index chart on Page 3 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data that have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars.
Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually in March.
The purpose of the publications is to serve the business and professional communities, economic developers, economists, educators and others who have need for information on state economic trends.

Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning Georgia economic Indicators, Monthly Report and Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Bill Webb, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177.

Data Sources

Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Employment, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Retail Employment, Manufacturing Employment and Manufacturing Workweek -- Georgia Department of Labor
Consumer Price Index -- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, adapted from commentary by Michael Wald
New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue
New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State
Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce
Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group
* Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center

2 Georgia Economic Indicators / December 2002

Georgia Department of Labor

Consumer Price Index

Chart is not seasonally adjusted

YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC AVG

CPI RATE

1986 109.6 109.3 108.8 108.6 108.9 109.5 109.5 109.7 110.2 110.3 110.4 110.5 109.6 1.1%

1987 111.2 111.6 112.1 112.7 113.1 113.5 113.8 114.4 115.0 115.3 115.4 115.4 113.6 4.4%

1988 115.7 116.0 116.5 117.1 117.5 118.0 118.5 119.0 119.8 120.2 120.3 120.5 118.3 4.4%

1989 121.1 121.6 122.3 123.1 123.8 124.1 124.4 124.6 125.0 125.0 125.9 126.1 124.0 4.6%

1990 127.4 128.0 128.7 128.9 129.2 129.9 130.4 131.6 132.7 133.5 133.8 133.8 130.7 6.1%

1991 134.6 134.8 135.0 135.2 135.6 136.0 136.2 136.6 137.2 137.4 137.8 137.9 136.2 3.1%

1992 138.1 138.6 139.3 139.5 139.7 140.2 140.5 140.9 141.3 141.9 142.0 141.9 140.3 2.9%

1993 142.6 143.1 143.6 144.0 144.2 144.4 144.4 144.8 145.1 145.7 145.8 145.8 144.5 2.7%

1994 146.2 146.7 147.2 147.4 147.5 148.0 148.4 149.0 149.4 149.5 149.7 149.7 148.2 2.7%

1995 150.3 150.9 151.4 151.9 152.2 152.5 152.5 152.9 153.2 153.7 153.6 153.5 152.4 2.5%

1996 154.4 154.9 155.7 156.3 156.6 156.7 157.0 157.3 157.8 158.3 158.6 158.6 156.9 3.3%

1997 159.1 159.6 160.0 160.2 160.1 160.3 160.5 160.8 161.2 161.6 161.5 161.3 160.5 1.7%

1998 161.6 161.9 162.2 162.5 162.8 163.0 163.2 163.4 163.6 164.0 164.0 163.9 163.0 1.6%

1999 164.3 164.5 165.0 166.2 166.2 166.2 166.7 167.1 167.9 168.2 168.3 168.3 166.6 2.7%

2000 168.7 169.7 171.1 171.2 171.3 172.3 172.6 172.8 173.7 174.0 174.1 174.0 172.1 3.4%

2001 175.1 175.8 176.2 176.9 177.7 178.0 177.5 177.5 178.3 177.7 177.4 176.7 177.1 1.6%

2002 177.1 177.8 178.8 179.8 179.8 179.9 180.1 180.7 181.0 181.3

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics at www.bls.gov

CPI increases 0.2 percent in October

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in October, before seasonal adjustment, as recently reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The October level of 181.3 (1982-84=100) was 2.0 percent higher than its level in October 2001. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U rose 0.3 percent in October, following an increase of 0.2 percent in September.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) also rose 0.2 percent in October, prior to seasonal adjustment. The October level of 177.3 was 1.9 percent higher than the index in October 2001.
During the first 10 months of 2002, the CPI-U rose at a 2.7 percent seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). This compares with an increase of 1.6 percent for all of 2001. The index for energy, which declined 13.0 percent in 2001,

increased at a 14.2 percent SAAR in the first 10 months of 2002. Petroleum-based energy costs increased at a 31.8 percent annual rate and charges for energy services rose at a 0.3 percent annual rate.
The index for housing rose 0.3 percent in October, following a 0.1 percent rise in September. Shelter costs, which increased 0.1 percent in September, advanced 0.2 percent in October. The index for fuels and utilities rose 0.4 percent in October, the same as in September. The index for household furnishings and operations rose 0.3 percent in October.
The transportation index rose 0.6 percent in October. The index for gasoline increased for the fifth consecutive month, up 3.8 percent in October. Gasoline prices have risen 29.9 percent thus far this year, but remain 15.1 percent below their last peak in May 2001. The index for new vehicles increased 0.4 percent in

October, following a 0.5 percent rise in September. Airline fares declined for the second consecutive month, down 2.4 percent in October, and are 5.1 percent lower than a year ago.
The index for apparel was unchanged in October, following a 0.1 percent increase in September. Prior to seasonal adjustment, apparel prices rose 1.8 percent, reflecting price increases associated with the continued introduction of fallwinter wear.
The medical care index rose 0.6 percent in October to a level 4.8 percent above its level a year ago. The index for medical care commodities increased 0.3 percent. The index for medical care services rose 0.7 percent in October. Charges for professional services rose 0.6 percent and those for hospital and related services increased 0.9 percent.

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / December 2002 3

Georgia Index of Economic Indicators

207.5

Leading indicators Coincident indicators

180.9

154.3

127.6

101.0

1987-88 = 100

74.4

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

Georgia's Coincident Economic Indicator falls again

Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted.
***
The Georgia Department of Labor's Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), declined 0.1 percent to 180.4 in October, from a revised 180.5 in September, after seasonal adjustment.
The LEI, which measures economic activity that will impact the economy in the future, contracted during the current reporting period. Construction cooled after spiking in September, but continued to post positive gains in October. Building permits for new homes, an indication of builder confidence in future developments, increased 12.6 percent in October. The value of commercial construction also increased (up 2.1 percent) in October, adding to September's gain. Sales of new motor vehicles slipped 3.9 percent as

Recent 12 Months

187.6

Leading Coincident

180.2

172.7 165.2

157.7

1987-88 =100

150.2 ND J FMAMJ J ASO

new business corporations filed with the state increased 9.5 percent. Initial jobless claims increased 10.0 percent over the month. Continued jobless claims decelerated in October, down 14.3 percent from the previous month,

which also marks the first month that claims fell below last year's levels.
The Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI), which measures current economic conditions, declined 0.3 percent in October. The index was lowered to 157.8 marking the fifth consecutive month of decline. The last time the index declined more than five consecutive months was during the 1990-91 recession.
Nonagricultural employment remained flat, retail employment declined 0.5 percent and total state revenue dropped 5.3 percent. The unemployment rate for Georgia and the nation declined one-tenth of a percent (4.7% and 5.3%, respectively).

4 Georgia Economic Indicators / December 2002

Georgia Department of Labor

Data Summary

October 2002

Georgia Economic Indicators Seasonally Adjusted

Oct 2002

Sep 2002

Oct 2001

Percent Change
Sep 2002 to
Oct 2002

Percent Change
Oct 2001 to
Oct 2002

Nonagricultural Employment

3,856,892

3,858,323

3,942,193

-0.04

-2.16

Retail Employment

687,851

691,647

717,621

-0.55

-4.15

Manufacturing Employment

535,437

536,738

541,929

-0.24

-1.20

Manufacturing Workweek

43.2

43.8

40.6

-1.44

6.40

Weekly Manufacturing Earnings

$558.66

$572.71

$526.74

-2.45

6.06

Deflated Manufacturing Earnings

$308.14

$316.41

$296.42

-2.61

3.95

Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled

10,856

9,830

7,647

10.45

41.97

Initial Unemployment Claims

51,084

46,420

73,209

10.05 -30.22

Continued Unemployment Claims

303,648

354,363

370,414

-14.31 -18.02

Unemployment Rate (not seasonally adjusted)

4.7%

4.8%

4.4%

Insured Unemployment Rate

1.90%

1.95%

1.92%

New Motor Vehicle Sales

44,131

45,953

49,573

-3.97 -10.98

Residential Construction (building permits)

8,440

7,494

7,370

12.62

14.53

Nonresidential Construction (dollar value) $488,906,000 $476,951,000 $512,544,000

2.51

-4.61

Deflated Nonresidential Construction $398,456,400 $389,984,500 $424,291,400

2.17

-6.09

New Business Corporations

5,406

4,934

4,742

9.56

13.98

Total State Revenues

$1,012,736,000 $1,069,718,000 $1,092,639,000

-5.33

-7.31

Deflated Total State Revenues

$558,596,800 $591,004,400 $614,878,400

-5.48

-9.15

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / December 2002 5

Georgia Economic Indicators

Nonagricultural Employment

4.03

2000-2001

2001-2002

3.99

3.94

3.90

3.85

3.81

ND

J

FMAM

J

J

A

SO

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

2000-2001
3,973,532 3,979,488 3,969,680 3,977,192 3,983,939 3,982,787 3,974,909 3,971,332 3,960,068 3,945,137 3,935,987 3,942,193

2001-2002
3,906,082 3,892,867 3,872,285 3,880,687 3,873,452 3,889,756 3,887,840 3,880,325 3,869,148 3,860,451 3,858,323 3,856,892

MILLIONS

Retail Employment
731.8 2000-2001
721.8

2001-2002

711.8

THOUSANDS

701.8

691.9

681.9

ND

J

FMA

MJ

J

A

SO

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

2000-2001
719,345 721,436 718,082 717,582 719,611 720,263 720,417 718,372 713,422 713,207 711,789 717,621

2001-2002
712,091 711,426 706,291 702,564 700,432 708,212 701,508 696,824 700,238 695,370 691,647 687,851

Manufacturing Employment

598

2000-2001

2001-2002

581

565

THOUSANDS

548

532

515

ND

J

F MAMJ

J

A

SO

6 Georgia Economic Indicators / December 2002

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

2000-2001
574,233 572,476 568,517 565,865 563,555 556,407 551,136 547,482 547,243 543,104 541,888 541,929

2001-2002
533,672 538,342 537,895 539,768 535,800 537,020 538,761 540,368 536,643 537,333 536,738 535,437

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators

Manufacturing Workweek

45.2

2000-2001

2001-2002

43.7

42.1

HOURS

40.6

39.1

37.6

ND

J

F

MA M J

J

A

SO

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

2000-2001
41.2 41.1 41.0 40.4 40.5 39.2 40.2 40.5 40.6 41.3 41.2 40.6

2001-2002
40.6 40.3 42.8 41.8 42.9 43.0 43.1 43.4 42.4 43.5 43.8 43.2

Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings

$584

2000-2001

2001-2002

$567

DOLLARS

$549

$532

$515

$498

N

D

J

FMAM

J

J

AS

O

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

2000-2001
$547.03 538.96 533.25 530.49 529.46 513.66 524.54 532.20 531.66 536.72 537.84 526.74

2001-2002
$523.65 526.39 555.99 558.71 564.83 558.04 559.24 563.70 550.42 561.90 572.71 558.66

Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings

$329 $319

2000-2001

2001-2002

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month 2000-2001

2001-2002

DOLLARS

Nov

$314.20

$295.18

$309

Dec

309.75

297.90

Jan

304.54

313.94

$299 $289 $279

Feb

301.76

314.24

Mar

300.49

315.90

Apr

290.37

310.37

May

295.18

311.03

Jun

298.99

313.34

Jul

299.53

305.62

Aug

302.38

310.96

Sep

301.65

316.41

Oct

296.42

308.14

N

D

J

FMAM

J

J

AS

O

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / December 2002 7

Georgia Economic Indicators

Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled*

18.5

2000-2001

2001-2002

15.0

THOUSANDS

11.6

8.1

4.7

1.2

ND

J

F MA M J

J

A

SO

* Jobs listed with the Georgia Department of Labor

Initial Unemployment Claims

95.9

2000-2001

2001-2002

77.9

THOUSANDS

59.9

41.9

23.9

5.9

ND

J

F

MA

M

J

J

A

SO

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

2000-2001 12,513 11,504 11,144 11,717 11,033 10,485 9,536 8,113 8,655 8,801 7,642 7,647

2001-2002 7,307 6,863 8,463 9,031 10,088 10,184 9,923 9,924 10,766 10,412 9,830 10,856

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

2000-2001 43,958 44,720 50,402 46,055 47,300 52,785 58,261 53,061 59,542 49,355 50,093 73,209

2001-2002 64,401 47,878 55,134 43,148 42,701 50,568 48,023 44,197 44,364 42,048 46,420 51,084

Continued Unemployment Claims

485.6

2000-2001

2001-2002

399.9

THOUSANDS

314.3

228.6

142.9

57.3

ND

J

F

MAM

J

J

A

SO

8 Georgia Economic Indicators / December 2002

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

2000-2001
165,718 164,512 211,730 196,795 185,827 258,887 242,095 251,027 282,298 263,622 272,945 370,414

2001-2002
324,446 360,381 316,501 326,290 299,206 388,590 308,224 306,589 309,959 285,241 354,363 303,648

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate *
5.9 2000-2001
5.2

2001-2002

PERCENTAGES

4.6

4.0

3.3

2.7

ND

J

F

M

AM

J

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A

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* Not Seasonally Adjusted

Insured Unemployment Rate

2.76

2000-2001

2001-2002

2.26

PERCENTAGES

1.76

1.26

0.76

0.26 ND

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

SO

Monthly Data
Not Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

2000-2001
3.4 % 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.6 4.5 4.3 4.0 4.2 4.4

2001-2002
4.3 % 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.2 4.5 5.2 4.9 4.7 4.8 4.7

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

2000-2001
1.03 % 1.21 1.19 1.23 1.29 1.35 1.48 1.56 1.73 1.64 1.72 1.92

2001-2002
2.03 % 2.09 2.22 2.04 2.05 2.09 1.97 1.90 1.71 1.77 1.95 1.90

New Motor Vehicle Sales

63

2000-2001

2001-2002

56

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month

2000-2001

2001-2002

THOUSANDS

Nov

44,190

48,849

50

Dec

37,137

37,638

Jan

52,597

46,262

Feb

42,961

41,086

M ar

47,370

44,279

43

Apr

46,979

48,167

M ay

48,748

48,946

Jun

43,724

41,558

37

Jul

47,397

49,514

Aug

49,695

50,365

Sep

49,277

45,953

30

Oct

49,573

44,131

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / December 2002 9

Georgia Economic Indicators

Residential Construction

10,277

2000-2001

9,388

2001-2002

HOUSEHOLD UNITS

8,499

7,609

6,720

5,831

ND

J

FMAMJ

J

A

SO

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

2000-2001 7,265 7,293 8,434 7,897 7,192 7,566 8,313 9,129 8,400 7,768 6,920 7,370

2001-2002 6,928 6,997 7,711 7,698 8,118 8,138 9,273 8,459 9,432 6,795 7,494 8,440

Nonresidential Construction

$810

2000-2001

2001-2002

$672

$534

MILLIONS

$396

$258

$120

ND

J

F

MAM

J

J

A

SO

Deflated Nonresidential Construction

$720

2000-2001

2001-2002

$591

$462

MILLIONS

$333

$204

$75

ND

J

FMAM

J

J

A

SO

10 Georgia Economic Indicators / December 2002

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

2000-2001
$372,176,000 485,732,000 565,448,000 461,292,000 431,267,000 572,387,000 432,484,000 475,670,000 496,336,000 471,396,000 529,509,000 512,544,000

2001-2002
$619,902,000 323,839,000 501,561,000 525,956,000 265,245,000 495,148,000 424,528,000 490,410,000 504,031,000 336,173,000 476,951,000 488,906,000

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

2000-2001
$318,916,900 414,801,000 479,599,700 389,934,100 363,631,500 482,213,100 363,431,900 398,050,200 415,691,800 393,814,500 441,257,500 424,291,400

2001-2002
$516,585,000 269,416,800 413,829,200 433,957,100 218,668,600 408,201,200 348,831,600 400,989,400 413,818,600 275,326,000 389,984,500 398,456,400

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators

New Business Corporations*

7,123

2000-2001

2001-2002

6,068

CHARTERS

5,014

3,959

2,905

1,850

ND

J

F

Total State Revenues

$1,683

2000-2001

$1,466

MA M J

J

A

S

O

* Includes limited liability companies

2001-2002

$1,250

MILLIONS

$1,033

$817

$600

ND

J

F MA M J

J

A

SO

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Ap r M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

2000-2001 4,806 4,611 4,859 4,544 5,039 4,513 4,718 4,721 4,442 5,605 4,161 4,742

2001-2002 2,931 3,039 5,348 5,085 5,617 4,129 6,090 4,521 5,202 5,024 4,934 5,406

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

2000-2001
$1,132,895,000 1,133,560,000 1,342,191,000 1,124,170,000
926,149,000 989,987,000 1,428,144,000 1,226,480,000 1,062,372,000 1,099,959,000 1,062,069,000 1,092,639,000

2001-2002
$1,086,140,000 1,067,092,000 1,253,033,000 1,049,479,000
829,956,000 890,580,000 1,379,021,000 1,192,921,000 926,854,000 956,127,000 1,069,718,000 1,012,736,000

Deflated Total State Revenues

$940

2000-2001

2001-2002

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

MILLIONS

$823

Month

2000-2001

2001-2002

$706 $589 $472 $355

Nov

$650,715,100 $612,254,800

Dec

651,471,300

603,900,400

Jan

766,528,300

707,528,500

Feb

639,459,600

590,258,200

M ar

525,623,700

464,181,200

Apr

559,630,900

495,317,000

M ay

803,682,600

766,975,000

Jun

689,033,700

663,102,300

Jul

598,519,400

514,633,000

Aug

619,695,200

529,124,000

Sep

595,664,000

591,004,400

Oct

614,878,400

558,596,800

NDJ

F

M

A

M

J

J

ASO

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / December 2002 11

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