GEORGIA Economic Indicators A Monthly Report of Georgia State Labor Market and Economic Trends December 2002 Volume 8, Issue 10 Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner Georgia Economic Indicators Monthly Report October 2002 Data Volume 8, Issue 10 December 2002 Cover art: Seney-Stovall Chapel, University of Georgia Athens, Georgia by Huey J. Theus, Mableton, Georgia Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177. Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner Equal Opportunity Employer/Programs - Auxiliary Aids and Services Available Upon Request to Individuals With Disabilities Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / December 2002 Introduction G eorgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is designed to provide in a single publication data on a number of indicators used to measure movement of the state's economy. The indicators have been collected and disseminated for many years by state and federal governments and private agencies, but not under a single cover. Contributing agencies include Georgia's Department of Labor, Department of Revenue and Office of Secretary of State, the U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the F.W. Dodge Company. All data except those contained in the U.S. Consumer Price Index chart on Page 3 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data that have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars. Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually in March. The purpose of the publications is to serve the business and professional communities, economic developers, economists, educators and others who have need for information on state economic trends. Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning Georgia economic Indicators, Monthly Report and Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Bill Webb, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177. Data Sources Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Employment, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Retail Employment, Manufacturing Employment and Manufacturing Workweek -- Georgia Department of Labor Consumer Price Index -- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, adapted from commentary by Michael Wald New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group * Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center 2 Georgia Economic Indicators / December 2002 Georgia Department of Labor Consumer Price Index Chart is not seasonally adjusted YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC AVG CPI RATE 1986 109.6 109.3 108.8 108.6 108.9 109.5 109.5 109.7 110.2 110.3 110.4 110.5 109.6 1.1% 1987 111.2 111.6 112.1 112.7 113.1 113.5 113.8 114.4 115.0 115.3 115.4 115.4 113.6 4.4% 1988 115.7 116.0 116.5 117.1 117.5 118.0 118.5 119.0 119.8 120.2 120.3 120.5 118.3 4.4% 1989 121.1 121.6 122.3 123.1 123.8 124.1 124.4 124.6 125.0 125.0 125.9 126.1 124.0 4.6% 1990 127.4 128.0 128.7 128.9 129.2 129.9 130.4 131.6 132.7 133.5 133.8 133.8 130.7 6.1% 1991 134.6 134.8 135.0 135.2 135.6 136.0 136.2 136.6 137.2 137.4 137.8 137.9 136.2 3.1% 1992 138.1 138.6 139.3 139.5 139.7 140.2 140.5 140.9 141.3 141.9 142.0 141.9 140.3 2.9% 1993 142.6 143.1 143.6 144.0 144.2 144.4 144.4 144.8 145.1 145.7 145.8 145.8 144.5 2.7% 1994 146.2 146.7 147.2 147.4 147.5 148.0 148.4 149.0 149.4 149.5 149.7 149.7 148.2 2.7% 1995 150.3 150.9 151.4 151.9 152.2 152.5 152.5 152.9 153.2 153.7 153.6 153.5 152.4 2.5% 1996 154.4 154.9 155.7 156.3 156.6 156.7 157.0 157.3 157.8 158.3 158.6 158.6 156.9 3.3% 1997 159.1 159.6 160.0 160.2 160.1 160.3 160.5 160.8 161.2 161.6 161.5 161.3 160.5 1.7% 1998 161.6 161.9 162.2 162.5 162.8 163.0 163.2 163.4 163.6 164.0 164.0 163.9 163.0 1.6% 1999 164.3 164.5 165.0 166.2 166.2 166.2 166.7 167.1 167.9 168.2 168.3 168.3 166.6 2.7% 2000 168.7 169.7 171.1 171.2 171.3 172.3 172.6 172.8 173.7 174.0 174.1 174.0 172.1 3.4% 2001 175.1 175.8 176.2 176.9 177.7 178.0 177.5 177.5 178.3 177.7 177.4 176.7 177.1 1.6% 2002 177.1 177.8 178.8 179.8 179.8 179.9 180.1 180.7 181.0 181.3 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics at www.bls.gov CPI increases 0.2 percent in October The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in October, before seasonal adjustment, as recently reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The October level of 181.3 (1982-84=100) was 2.0 percent higher than its level in October 2001. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U rose 0.3 percent in October, following an increase of 0.2 percent in September. The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) also rose 0.2 percent in October, prior to seasonal adjustment. The October level of 177.3 was 1.9 percent higher than the index in October 2001. During the first 10 months of 2002, the CPI-U rose at a 2.7 percent seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). This compares with an increase of 1.6 percent for all of 2001. The index for energy, which declined 13.0 percent in 2001, increased at a 14.2 percent SAAR in the first 10 months of 2002. Petroleum-based energy costs increased at a 31.8 percent annual rate and charges for energy services rose at a 0.3 percent annual rate. The index for housing rose 0.3 percent in October, following a 0.1 percent rise in September. Shelter costs, which increased 0.1 percent in September, advanced 0.2 percent in October. The index for fuels and utilities rose 0.4 percent in October, the same as in September. The index for household furnishings and operations rose 0.3 percent in October. The transportation index rose 0.6 percent in October. The index for gasoline increased for the fifth consecutive month, up 3.8 percent in October. Gasoline prices have risen 29.9 percent thus far this year, but remain 15.1 percent below their last peak in May 2001. The index for new vehicles increased 0.4 percent in October, following a 0.5 percent rise in September. Airline fares declined for the second consecutive month, down 2.4 percent in October, and are 5.1 percent lower than a year ago. The index for apparel was unchanged in October, following a 0.1 percent increase in September. Prior to seasonal adjustment, apparel prices rose 1.8 percent, reflecting price increases associated with the continued introduction of fallwinter wear. The medical care index rose 0.6 percent in October to a level 4.8 percent above its level a year ago. The index for medical care commodities increased 0.3 percent. The index for medical care services rose 0.7 percent in October. Charges for professional services rose 0.6 percent and those for hospital and related services increased 0.9 percent. Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / December 2002 3 Georgia Index of Economic Indicators 207.5 Leading indicators Coincident indicators 180.9 154.3 127.6 101.0 1987-88 = 100 74.4 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 Georgia's Coincident Economic Indicator falls again Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted. *** The Georgia Department of Labor's Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), declined 0.1 percent to 180.4 in October, from a revised 180.5 in September, after seasonal adjustment. The LEI, which measures economic activity that will impact the economy in the future, contracted during the current reporting period. Construction cooled after spiking in September, but continued to post positive gains in October. Building permits for new homes, an indication of builder confidence in future developments, increased 12.6 percent in October. The value of commercial construction also increased (up 2.1 percent) in October, adding to September's gain. Sales of new motor vehicles slipped 3.9 percent as Recent 12 Months 187.6 Leading Coincident 180.2 172.7 165.2 157.7 1987-88 =100 150.2 ND J FMAMJ J ASO new business corporations filed with the state increased 9.5 percent. Initial jobless claims increased 10.0 percent over the month. Continued jobless claims decelerated in October, down 14.3 percent from the previous month, which also marks the first month that claims fell below last year's levels. The Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI), which measures current economic conditions, declined 0.3 percent in October. The index was lowered to 157.8 marking the fifth consecutive month of decline. The last time the index declined more than five consecutive months was during the 1990-91 recession. Nonagricultural employment remained flat, retail employment declined 0.5 percent and total state revenue dropped 5.3 percent. The unemployment rate for Georgia and the nation declined one-tenth of a percent (4.7% and 5.3%, respectively). 4 Georgia Economic Indicators / December 2002 Georgia Department of Labor Data Summary October 2002 Georgia Economic Indicators Seasonally Adjusted Oct 2002 Sep 2002 Oct 2001 Percent Change Sep 2002 to Oct 2002 Percent Change Oct 2001 to Oct 2002 Nonagricultural Employment 3,856,892 3,858,323 3,942,193 -0.04 -2.16 Retail Employment 687,851 691,647 717,621 -0.55 -4.15 Manufacturing Employment 535,437 536,738 541,929 -0.24 -1.20 Manufacturing Workweek 43.2 43.8 40.6 -1.44 6.40 Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $558.66 $572.71 $526.74 -2.45 6.06 Deflated Manufacturing Earnings $308.14 $316.41 $296.42 -2.61 3.95 Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled 10,856 9,830 7,647 10.45 41.97 Initial Unemployment Claims 51,084 46,420 73,209 10.05 -30.22 Continued Unemployment Claims 303,648 354,363 370,414 -14.31 -18.02 Unemployment Rate (not seasonally adjusted) 4.7% 4.8% 4.4% Insured Unemployment Rate 1.90% 1.95% 1.92% New Motor Vehicle Sales 44,131 45,953 49,573 -3.97 -10.98 Residential Construction (building permits) 8,440 7,494 7,370 12.62 14.53 Nonresidential Construction (dollar value) $488,906,000 $476,951,000 $512,544,000 2.51 -4.61 Deflated Nonresidential Construction $398,456,400 $389,984,500 $424,291,400 2.17 -6.09 New Business Corporations 5,406 4,934 4,742 9.56 13.98 Total State Revenues $1,012,736,000 $1,069,718,000 $1,092,639,000 -5.33 -7.31 Deflated Total State Revenues $558,596,800 $591,004,400 $614,878,400 -5.48 -9.15 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / December 2002 5 Georgia Economic Indicators Nonagricultural Employment 4.03 2000-2001 2001-2002 3.99 3.94 3.90 3.85 3.81 ND J FMAM J J A SO Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 2000-2001 3,973,532 3,979,488 3,969,680 3,977,192 3,983,939 3,982,787 3,974,909 3,971,332 3,960,068 3,945,137 3,935,987 3,942,193 2001-2002 3,906,082 3,892,867 3,872,285 3,880,687 3,873,452 3,889,756 3,887,840 3,880,325 3,869,148 3,860,451 3,858,323 3,856,892 MILLIONS Retail Employment 731.8 2000-2001 721.8 2001-2002 711.8 THOUSANDS 701.8 691.9 681.9 ND J FMA MJ J A SO Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 2000-2001 719,345 721,436 718,082 717,582 719,611 720,263 720,417 718,372 713,422 713,207 711,789 717,621 2001-2002 712,091 711,426 706,291 702,564 700,432 708,212 701,508 696,824 700,238 695,370 691,647 687,851 Manufacturing Employment 598 2000-2001 2001-2002 581 565 THOUSANDS 548 532 515 ND J F MAMJ J A SO 6 Georgia Economic Indicators / December 2002 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 2000-2001 574,233 572,476 568,517 565,865 563,555 556,407 551,136 547,482 547,243 543,104 541,888 541,929 2001-2002 533,672 538,342 537,895 539,768 535,800 537,020 538,761 540,368 536,643 537,333 536,738 535,437 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators Manufacturing Workweek 45.2 2000-2001 2001-2002 43.7 42.1 HOURS 40.6 39.1 37.6 ND J F MA M J J A SO Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 2000-2001 41.2 41.1 41.0 40.4 40.5 39.2 40.2 40.5 40.6 41.3 41.2 40.6 2001-2002 40.6 40.3 42.8 41.8 42.9 43.0 43.1 43.4 42.4 43.5 43.8 43.2 Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $584 2000-2001 2001-2002 $567 DOLLARS $549 $532 $515 $498 N D J FMAM J J AS O Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 2000-2001 $547.03 538.96 533.25 530.49 529.46 513.66 524.54 532.20 531.66 536.72 537.84 526.74 2001-2002 $523.65 526.39 555.99 558.71 564.83 558.04 559.24 563.70 550.42 561.90 572.71 558.66 Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $329 $319 2000-2001 2001-2002 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month 2000-2001 2001-2002 DOLLARS Nov $314.20 $295.18 $309 Dec 309.75 297.90 Jan 304.54 313.94 $299 $289 $279 Feb 301.76 314.24 Mar 300.49 315.90 Apr 290.37 310.37 May 295.18 311.03 Jun 298.99 313.34 Jul 299.53 305.62 Aug 302.38 310.96 Sep 301.65 316.41 Oct 296.42 308.14 N D J FMAM J J AS O Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / December 2002 7 Georgia Economic Indicators Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled* 18.5 2000-2001 2001-2002 15.0 THOUSANDS 11.6 8.1 4.7 1.2 ND J F MA M J J A SO * Jobs listed with the Georgia Department of Labor Initial Unemployment Claims 95.9 2000-2001 2001-2002 77.9 THOUSANDS 59.9 41.9 23.9 5.9 ND J F MA M J J A SO Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 2000-2001 12,513 11,504 11,144 11,717 11,033 10,485 9,536 8,113 8,655 8,801 7,642 7,647 2001-2002 7,307 6,863 8,463 9,031 10,088 10,184 9,923 9,924 10,766 10,412 9,830 10,856 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 2000-2001 43,958 44,720 50,402 46,055 47,300 52,785 58,261 53,061 59,542 49,355 50,093 73,209 2001-2002 64,401 47,878 55,134 43,148 42,701 50,568 48,023 44,197 44,364 42,048 46,420 51,084 Continued Unemployment Claims 485.6 2000-2001 2001-2002 399.9 THOUSANDS 314.3 228.6 142.9 57.3 ND J F MAM J J A SO 8 Georgia Economic Indicators / December 2002 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 2000-2001 165,718 164,512 211,730 196,795 185,827 258,887 242,095 251,027 282,298 263,622 272,945 370,414 2001-2002 324,446 360,381 316,501 326,290 299,206 388,590 308,224 306,589 309,959 285,241 354,363 303,648 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate * 5.9 2000-2001 5.2 2001-2002 PERCENTAGES 4.6 4.0 3.3 2.7 ND J F M AM J J A SO * Not Seasonally Adjusted Insured Unemployment Rate 2.76 2000-2001 2001-2002 2.26 PERCENTAGES 1.76 1.26 0.76 0.26 ND J F M A M J J A SO Monthly Data Not Seasonally Adjusted Month Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 2000-2001 3.4 % 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.6 4.5 4.3 4.0 4.2 4.4 2001-2002 4.3 % 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.2 4.5 5.2 4.9 4.7 4.8 4.7 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 2000-2001 1.03 % 1.21 1.19 1.23 1.29 1.35 1.48 1.56 1.73 1.64 1.72 1.92 2001-2002 2.03 % 2.09 2.22 2.04 2.05 2.09 1.97 1.90 1.71 1.77 1.95 1.90 New Motor Vehicle Sales 63 2000-2001 2001-2002 56 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month 2000-2001 2001-2002 THOUSANDS Nov 44,190 48,849 50 Dec 37,137 37,638 Jan 52,597 46,262 Feb 42,961 41,086 M ar 47,370 44,279 43 Apr 46,979 48,167 M ay 48,748 48,946 Jun 43,724 41,558 37 Jul 47,397 49,514 Aug 49,695 50,365 Sep 49,277 45,953 30 Oct 49,573 44,131 N D J F M A M J J A S O Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / December 2002 9 Georgia Economic Indicators Residential Construction 10,277 2000-2001 9,388 2001-2002 HOUSEHOLD UNITS 8,499 7,609 6,720 5,831 ND J FMAMJ J A SO Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 2000-2001 7,265 7,293 8,434 7,897 7,192 7,566 8,313 9,129 8,400 7,768 6,920 7,370 2001-2002 6,928 6,997 7,711 7,698 8,118 8,138 9,273 8,459 9,432 6,795 7,494 8,440 Nonresidential Construction $810 2000-2001 2001-2002 $672 $534 MILLIONS $396 $258 $120 ND J F MAM J J A SO Deflated Nonresidential Construction $720 2000-2001 2001-2002 $591 $462 MILLIONS $333 $204 $75 ND J FMAM J J A SO 10 Georgia Economic Indicators / December 2002 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 2000-2001 $372,176,000 485,732,000 565,448,000 461,292,000 431,267,000 572,387,000 432,484,000 475,670,000 496,336,000 471,396,000 529,509,000 512,544,000 2001-2002 $619,902,000 323,839,000 501,561,000 525,956,000 265,245,000 495,148,000 424,528,000 490,410,000 504,031,000 336,173,000 476,951,000 488,906,000 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 2000-2001 $318,916,900 414,801,000 479,599,700 389,934,100 363,631,500 482,213,100 363,431,900 398,050,200 415,691,800 393,814,500 441,257,500 424,291,400 2001-2002 $516,585,000 269,416,800 413,829,200 433,957,100 218,668,600 408,201,200 348,831,600 400,989,400 413,818,600 275,326,000 389,984,500 398,456,400 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators New Business Corporations* 7,123 2000-2001 2001-2002 6,068 CHARTERS 5,014 3,959 2,905 1,850 ND J F Total State Revenues $1,683 2000-2001 $1,466 MA M J J A S O * Includes limited liability companies 2001-2002 $1,250 MILLIONS $1,033 $817 $600 ND J F MA M J J A SO Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Ap r M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 2000-2001 4,806 4,611 4,859 4,544 5,039 4,513 4,718 4,721 4,442 5,605 4,161 4,742 2001-2002 2,931 3,039 5,348 5,085 5,617 4,129 6,090 4,521 5,202 5,024 4,934 5,406 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 2000-2001 $1,132,895,000 1,133,560,000 1,342,191,000 1,124,170,000 926,149,000 989,987,000 1,428,144,000 1,226,480,000 1,062,372,000 1,099,959,000 1,062,069,000 1,092,639,000 2001-2002 $1,086,140,000 1,067,092,000 1,253,033,000 1,049,479,000 829,956,000 890,580,000 1,379,021,000 1,192,921,000 926,854,000 956,127,000 1,069,718,000 1,012,736,000 Deflated Total State Revenues $940 2000-2001 2001-2002 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted MILLIONS $823 Month 2000-2001 2001-2002 $706 $589 $472 $355 Nov $650,715,100 $612,254,800 Dec 651,471,300 603,900,400 Jan 766,528,300 707,528,500 Feb 639,459,600 590,258,200 M ar 525,623,700 464,181,200 Apr 559,630,900 495,317,000 M ay 803,682,600 766,975,000 Jun 689,033,700 663,102,300 Jul 598,519,400 514,633,000 Aug 619,695,200 529,124,000 Sep 595,664,000 591,004,400 Oct 614,878,400 558,596,800 NDJ F M A M J J ASO Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / December 2002 11 To receive a free subscription to this publication, please complete and mail this form Mail to: If you prefer, you may e-mail your request to bill.webb@dol.state.ga.us Bill Webb Workforce Information and Analysis Georgia Department 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