GEORGIA
Economic
Indicators
A Monthly Report of Georgia State Labor Market and Economic Trends
November 2001
Volume 7, Issue 9
Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner
Georgia Economic Indicators
Monthly Report September 2001 Data
Volume 7, Issue 9 November 2001
Cover art: King-Tisdell House 1896, Savannah, Georgia by Huey J. Theus, Mableton, Georgia
Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177.
Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us
Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner
Equal Opportunity Employer/Programs - Auxiliary Aids and Services Available Upon Request to Individuals With Disabilities
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators / November 2001 1
Introduction
G eorgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is designed to provide in a single publication data on a
number of indicators used to measure movement of the state's economy.
The indicators have been collected and disseminated for many years by state and federal governments and private agencies, but not under a single cover. Contributing agencies include Georgia's Department of Labor, Department of Revenue and Office of Secretary of State, the U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the F.W. Dodge Company.
All data except those contained in the U.S. Consumer Price Index chart on Page 3 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data that have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars.
Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually in February.
The purpose of the publications is to serve the business and professional communities, economic developers, economists, educators and others who have need for information on state economic trends.
Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report and Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Bill Webb, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177.
Data Sources
Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Employment, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Retail Employment, Manufacturing Employment and Manufacturing Workweek -- Georgia Department of Labor
New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue
New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State
Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce
Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group
* Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center
2 Georgia Economic Indicators / November 2001
Georgia Department of Labor
Consumer Price Index
YEAR 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
JAN
62.5 68.3 77.8 87.0 94.3 97.8 101.9 105.5 109.6 111.2 115.7 121.1 127.4 134.6 138.1 142.6 146.2 150.3 154.4 159.1 161.6 164.3 168.7 175.1
FEB
62.9 69.1 78.9 87.9 94.6 97.9 102.4 106.0 109.3 111.6 116.0 121.6 128.0 134.8 138.6 143.1 146.7 150.9 154.9 159.6 161.9 164.5 169.7 175.8
MAR
63.4 69.8 80.1 88.5 94.5 97.9 102.6 106.4 108.8 112.1 116.5 122.3 128.7 135.0 139.3 143.6 147.2 151.4 155.7 160.0 162.2 165.0 171.1 176.2
APR MAY
63.9 64.5 70.6 71.5 81.0 81.8 89.1 89.8 94.9 95.8 98.6 99.2 103.1 103.4 106.9 107.3 108.6 108.9 112.7 113.1 117.1 117.5 123.1 123.8 128.9 129.2 135.2 135.6 139.5 139.7 144.0 144.2 147.4 147.5 151.9 152.2 156.3 156.6 160.2 160.1 162.5 162.8 166.2 166.2 171.2 171.3 176.9 177.7
JUN
65.2 72.3 82.7 90.6 97.0 99.5 103.7 107.6 109.5 113.5 118.0 124.1 129.9 136.0 140.2 144.4 148.0 152.5 156.7 160.3 163.0 166.2 172.3 178.0
JUL
65.7 73.1 82.7 91.6 97.5 99.9 104.1 107.0 109.5 113.8 118.5 124.4 130.4 136.2 140.5 144.4 148.4 152.5 157.0 160.5 163.2 166.7 172.6 177.5
AUG
66.0 73.8 88.3 92.3 97.7 100.2 104.5 108.0 109.7 114.4 119.0 124.6 131.6 136.6 140.9 144.8 149.0 152.9 157.3 160.8 163.4 167.1 172.8 177.5
SEP
66.5 74.6 84.0 93.2 97.9 100.7 105.0 108.3 110.2 115.0 119.8 125.0 132.7 137.2 141.3 145.1 149.4 153.2 157.8 161.2 163.6 167.9 173.7 178.3
OCT
67.1 75.2 84.8 93.4 98.2 101.0 105.3 108.7 110.3 115.3 120.2 125.0 133.5 137.4 141.9 145.7 149.5 153.7 158.3 161.6 164.0 168.2 174.0
Chart is not seasonally adjusted
NOV
67.4 75.9 85.5 93.7 98.0 101.2 105.3 109.0 110.4 115.4 120.3 125.9 133.8 137.8 142.0 145.8 149.7 153.6 158.6 161.5 164.0 168.3 174.1
DEC
67.7 76.7 86.3 94.0 97.6 101.3 105.3 109.3 110.5 115.4 120.5 126.1 133.8 137.9 141.9 145.8 149.7 153.5 158.6 161.3 163.9 168.3 174.0
AVG
65.2 72.6 82.4 90.9 96.5 99.6 103.9 107.6 109.6 113.6 118.3 124.0 130.7 136.2 140.3 144.5 148.2 152.4 156.9 160.5 163.0 166.6 172.1
CPI RATE
9.0% 13.3% 12.5% 8.9% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 1.1% 4.4% 4.4% 4.6% 6.1% 3.1% 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 3.3% 1.7% 1.6% 2.7% 3.4%
U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS
The CPI Moves Higher in September
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.5 percent in September, before seasonal adjustment, to a level of 178.3 (198284=100), as recently reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. For the 12month period ending in September, the CPI-U increased 2.6 percent.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 0.6 percent in September, prior to seasonal adjustment. The September level of 174.8 was 2.6 percent higher than (the index in) September 2000.
Following standard practice, price collection for the CPI was conducted throughout the month. Approximately two-thirds of the prices were collected after September11.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U rose 0.4 percent in September, following a 0.1 percent increase in August. The energy index, which declined in each of the preceding three months, turned up in September,
Georgia Department of Labor
advancing 2.6 percent. The index for petroleum-based energy rose 8.0 percent, more than offsetting a 2.2 percent decline in the index for energy services. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U rose 0.2 percent for the third consecutive month.
Consumer prices rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.7 percent in the third quarter. This followed increases in the first and second quarters at annual rates of 4.0 and 3.7 percent, respectively, and brings the year-to -date annual rate to 2.8 percent. This compares with an increase of 3.4 percent for all of 2000.
The housing index, which increased 0.3 percent in August, declined 0.2 percent in September. Shelter costs were unchanged in September, following a 0.5 percent rise in August. The index for fuels and utilities declined for the third consecutive month, down 1.6 percent in September. The indexes for natural gas and for electricity fell 5.5 and 0.6 percent,
respectively, more than offsetting a 0.2 percent increase in the index for fuel oil.
The transportation component, which declined in each of the preceding three months, turned up in September, advancing 1.6 percent. An 8.6 percent rise in the September index for gasoline was responsible for the increase. Prior to the September advance, gasoline prices had declined 17.0 percent in the three-month period following the peak level reached in May 2001. Airplane fares declined for the third consecutive month, down 0.8 percent in September.
Medical care costs rose 0.3 percent in September to a level 4.5 percent higher than a year ago. In September, the index for medical care commodities increased 0.3 percent. The index for medical care services also rose 0.3 percent. Charges for professional and hospital related services increased 0.2 and 0.6 percent, respectively.
Georgia Economic Indicators / November 2001 3
Georgia Index of Economic Indicators
197.7
Leading indicators Coincident indicators
173.0
148.3
123.7
99.0
1987-88 = 100
74.4
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
Weakness Spreads Through Georgia's Economy
Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted.
***
The Georgia Department of Labor's Index of Leading Economic Indicators decreased 0.3 percent in September to 169.7 from a revised 170.1, after seasonal adjustment. The index has grown 2.5 percent since September 2000.
Georgia's economy has definitely cooled since the summer as softness has spread through various sectors of the state's economy. The weak business climate has depressed new business ventures and tightened profit margins. The largest contributor to the index's decrease was new business charters, which dropped 29.6 percent in September. New motor vehicle sales only slipped 2.2 percent as dealers pinned up demand by offering attractive financing deals. The value of nonresidential construction increased
Recent 12 Months
173.5 Leading Coincident
170.3
167.2
164.0
160.8 157.6
1987-88 =100
ON
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The Leading Index reflects activity that will impact the economy for a duration of three to six months into the future. Coincident indicators measure current conditions.
19.9 percent, as interest rates continued to decline.
The Index of Coincident Indicators declined 0.8 percent in September to 160.6 from a revised 161.9. The index continues to struggle as the economy decelerates.
Nonagricultural employment continued its descent as employment slipped 0.3 percent in September. In the manufacturing sector, employment decreased 0.2 percent as weekly earnings and hours followed suit, slipping 0.1 and 1.1 percent, respectively.
The slow down in the economy has translated into higher unemployment rates for the state. Georgia's unemployment rate increased onetenth of a percent after August's rate was revised upward to 3.9 percent.
4 Georgia Economic Indicators / November 2001
Georgia Department of Labor
Data Summary
September 2001
Georgia Economic Indicators
Seasonally Adjusted
Sep 2001
Aug 2001
Sep 2000
Percent Percent
Change Change
Aug 2001 Sep 2000
to
to
Sep 2001 Sep 2001
Nonagricultural Employment
3,996,968
4,009,907
4,009,019
Retail Employment
732,104
733,350
718,769
Manufacturing Employment
561,526
564,976
585,806
Manufacturing Workweek
40.3
40.8
41.0
Weekly Manufacturing Earnings
$531.14
$531.54
$539.33
Deflated Manufacturing Earnings
$297.89
$299.46
$310.49
Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled
7,485
8,662
14,124
Initial Unemployment Claims
49,812
50,742
34,313
Continued Unemployment Claims
266,143
268,978
147,905
Unemployment Rate (not seasonally adjusted)
4.0%
3.9%
3.8%
Insured Unemployment Rate
1.71%
1.65%
0.94%
New Motor Vehicle Sales
49,561
50,688
45,653
Residential Construction (building permits)
6,801
7,498
7,441
Nonresidential Construction (dollar value) $544,199,000 $454,058,000 $586,325,000
Deflated Nonresidential Construction
$456,160,100 $380,921,100 $505,888,700
New Business Corporations
4,159
5,903
4,274
Total State Revenues
$1,038,457,000 $1,099,342,000 $1,111,664,000
Deflated Total State Revenues
$582,421,200 $619,347,600 $639,990,800
-0.32 -0.17 -0.61 -1.14 -0.07 -0.52 -13.59 -1.83 -1.05
-2.22 -9.30 19.85 19.75 -29.55 -5.54 -5.96
-0.30 1.86 -4.14 -1.68 -1.52 -4.06 -47.01 45.17 79.94
8.56 -8.60 -7.18 -9.83 -2.69 -6.59 -9.00
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators / November 2001 5
Georgia Economic Indicators
Nonagricultural Employment
4.12 1999-2000 2000-2001
4.07
MILLIONS
4.02
3.96
3.91
3.86
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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep
1999-2000
3,921,579 3,925,393 3,938,858 3,939,391 3,959,134 3,977,154 3,970,172 3,988,045 3,993,871 4,005,404 4,007,558 4,009,019
2000-2001
4,020,945 4,030,439 4,024,427 4,040,180 4,045,042 4,041,867 4,052,785 4,048,042 4,040,782 4,027,874 4,009,907 3,996,968
Retail Employment
753.5
1999-2000 2000-2001
741.6
729.7
THOUSANDS
717.8
705.9
694.0
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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep
1999-2000
709,943 715,004 722,770 709,013 715,823 719,353 720,379 720,877 721,421 723,043 721,309 718,769
2000-2001
726,337 733,610 735,734 732,765 731,550 734,253 734,736 739,086 739,249 738,695 733,350 732,104
Manufacturing Employment
610
1999-2000
2000-2001
597
585
THOUSANDS
572
559
547
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6 Georgia Economic Indicators / November 2001
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
1999-2000
594,288 593,718 595,486 590,229 591,515 590,915 589,013 588,422 587,924 589,020 585,594 585,806
2000-2001
585,901 581,835 582,143 576,177 579,216 574,610 573,204 571,023 567,924 569,034 564,976 561,526
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators
Manufacturing Workweek
43.8
1999-2000
2000-2001
42.6
41.4
HOURS
40.1
38.9
37.7
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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
1999-2000
41.7 42.2 42.4 42.0 41.6 41.3 41.9 40.6 41.0 41.2 41.4 41.0
2000-2001
41.3 40.9 40.8 40.7 40.0 40.3 39.1 39.8 40.3 40.3 40.8 40.3
Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings
$561
1999-2000
2000-2001
$547
DOLLARS
$534
$521
$507
$494
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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
1999-2000
$529.19 542.12 544.48 538.67 535.01 531.27 542.91 524.37 528.35 535.27 540.94 539.33
2000-2001
$542.76 543.47 535.92 525.05 522.38 526.21 510.55 523.71 531.47 527.00 531.54 531.14
Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings
$338 $325
1999-2000
2000-2001
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month 1999-2000
2000-2001
DOLLARS
$313
$300
$287
$275
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Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
$314.62 322.11 323.52 319.31 315.27 310.50 317.12 306.11 306.64 310.12 313.05 310.49
$311.93 312.16 308.00 299.85 297.14 298.64 288.61 294.71 298.58 296.90 299.46 297.89
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators / November 2001 7
Georgia Economic Indicators
Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled*
24.5
1999-2000
2000-2001
20.0
THOUSANDS
15.5
11.0
6.6
2.1
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* Jobs listed with the Georgia Department of Labor
Initial Unemployment Claims
74.8
1999-2000
2000-2001
62.0
THOUSANDS
49.2
36.4
23.6
10.9
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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
1999-2000
16,894 17,741 18,997 16,116 18,335 19,359 18,446 17,760 15,990 16,354 15,881 14,124
2000-2001
13,640 12,566 11,507 10,951 11,955 11,596 10,661 9,448 7,826 8,612 8,662 7,485
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Oct Nov Dec Jan
Feb Mar
Apr May Jun Jul
Aug
Sep
1999-2000
27,653 28,483 32,536 30,852
27,421 26,430
25,740 28,821 29,186 31,422
34,375
34,313
2000-2001
38,271 45,620 43,776 50,354
45,517 45,582
52,459 60,285 50,442 59,258
50,742
49,812
Continued Unemployment Claims
354.2
1999-2000
2000-2001
294.0
THOUSANDS
233.8
173.6
113.4
53.1
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8 Georgia Economic Indicators / November 2001
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Oct Nov Dec Jan
Feb Mar
Apr
May Jun Jul
Aug
Sep
1999-2000
139,033 154,977 138,052 153,719
134,472 122,763
131,083
148,971 135,417 151,092
152,030
147,905
2000-2001
184,770 164,381 167,498 211,150
195,343 182,949
264,655
239,858 246,537 283,727
268,978
266,143
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate *
5.1
1999-2000
2000-2001
4.5
PERCENTAGES
4.0
3.4
2.9
2.4
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* Not Seasonally Adjusted
Insured Unemployment Rate
2.17
1999-2000
2000-2001
1.82
PERCENTAGES
1.48
1.13
0.79
0.44
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Monthly Data
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep
1999-2000
4.1 % 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.8 3.9 3.5 3.7 4.4 4.1 3.8 3.8
2000-2001
3.7 % 3.2 3.0 3.3 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.5 4.2 4.0 3.9 4.0
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep
1999-2000
0.88 % 0.88 0.85 0.87 0.83 0.83 0.85 0.85 0.89 0.92 0.97 0.94
2000-2001
0.95 % 1.04 1.21 1.18 1.18 1.28 1.33 1.51 1.58 1.75 1.65 1.71
New Motor Vehicle Sales
68
1999-2000
2000-2001
60
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
1999-2000
2000-2001
THOUSANDS
51
43
35
27
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Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep
43,629 58,133 48,037 52,718 54,602 55,190 50,779 52,123 44,609 43,177 54,003 45,653
45,177 44,090 36,195 56,975 44,725 48,624 47,789 50,078 42,210 41,964 50,688 49,561
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators / November 2001 9
Georgia Economic Indicators
Residential Construction
9,935
1999-2000
2000-2001
9,128
HOUSEHOLD UNITS
8,320
7,512
6,704
5,896
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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
1999-2000
7,288 8,622 7,203 8,031 8,125 8,262 7,941 8,084 7,732 7,965 7,186 7,441
2000-2001
7,157 7,210 6,920 8,628 8,054 7,287 7,784 8,310 9,005 8,751 7,498 6,801
Nonresidential Construction
$843
1999-2000
2000-2001
$705
$567
MILLIONS
$429
$290
$152
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Deflated Nonresidential Construction
$875
1999-2000
2000-2001
$727
$580
MILLIONS
$433
$285
$138
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10 Georgia Economic Indicators / November 2001
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
1999-2000
$365,637,000 431,639,000 724,342,000 480,575,000 391,992,000 555,717,000 789,116,000 548,667,000 654,704,000 426,077,000 393,006,000 586,325,000
2000-2001
$519,280,000 365,900,000 469,039,000 559,265,000 438,065,000 442,190,000 619,469,000 401,734,000 495,771,000 554,259,000 454,058,000 544,199,000
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep
1999-2000
$328,514,800 386,081,400 646,157,000 421,557,000 343,551,300 487,899,000 689,786,700 477,932,900 568,813,200 368,260,200 339,383,400 505,888,700
2000-2001
$446,500,400 313,807,900 401,231,000 476,375,600 372,187,800 373,156,100 523,642,400 338,730,200 416,614,300 466,155,600 380,921,100 456,160,100
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators
New Business Corporations*
6,672
1999-2000
2000-2001
5,982
CHARTERS
5,292
4,602
3,912
3,222
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* Includes limited liability companies
Total State Revenues
$1,683
1999-2000
2000-2001
$1,482
$1,281
MILLIONS
$1,080
$879
$679
S
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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Ap r M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep
1999-2000
4,049 4,427 4,762 4,731 4,588 4,696 4,296 5,172 4,652 4,203 5,098 4,274
2000-2001
4,566 4,779 4,381 4,880 4,498 5,033 4,745 4,617 4,686 4,511 5,903 4,159
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep
1999-2000
2000-2001
$1,082,132,000 1,104,184,000 1,046,748,000 1,150,812,000 1,025,035,000 1,002,041,000 1,054,124,000 1,364,711,000 1,067,272,000 1,133,065,000 1,177,333,000 1,111,664,000
$1,227,641,000 1,146,891,000 1,107,590,000 1,358,146,000 1,084,760,000
919,280,000 964,287,000 1,446,688,000 1,272,264,000 1,068,000,000 1,099,342,000 1,038,457,000
Deflated Total State Revenues
$940
1999-2000
2000-2001
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
MILLIONS
$832
$723
$614
$505
$397
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Month
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep
1999-2000
$643,360,300 656,080,800 621,953,700 682,164,800 604,027,700 585,646,400 615,726,600 796,678,900 619,426,600 656,468,700 681,327,000 639,990,800
2000-2001
$705,540,800 658,754,200 636,546,000 775,640,200 617,042,100 521,725,300 545,102,900 814,118,200 714,755,100 601,690,100 619,347,600 582,421,200
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators / November 2001 11
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