GEORGIA Economic Indicators A Monthly Report of Georgia State Labor Market and Economic Trends November 2001 Volume 7, Issue 9 Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner Georgia Economic Indicators Monthly Report September 2001 Data Volume 7, Issue 9 November 2001 Cover art: King-Tisdell House 1896, Savannah, Georgia by Huey J. Theus, Mableton, Georgia Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177. Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner Equal Opportunity Employer/Programs - Auxiliary Aids and Services Available Upon Request to Individuals With Disabilities Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / November 2001 1 Introduction G eorgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is designed to provide in a single publication data on a number of indicators used to measure movement of the state's economy. The indicators have been collected and disseminated for many years by state and federal governments and private agencies, but not under a single cover. Contributing agencies include Georgia's Department of Labor, Department of Revenue and Office of Secretary of State, the U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the F.W. Dodge Company. All data except those contained in the U.S. Consumer Price Index chart on Page 3 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data that have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars. Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually in February. The purpose of the publications is to serve the business and professional communities, economic developers, economists, educators and others who have need for information on state economic trends. Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report and Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Bill Webb, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177. Data Sources Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Employment, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Retail Employment, Manufacturing Employment and Manufacturing Workweek -- Georgia Department of Labor New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group * Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center 2 Georgia Economic Indicators / November 2001 Georgia Department of Labor Consumer Price Index YEAR 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 JAN 62.5 68.3 77.8 87.0 94.3 97.8 101.9 105.5 109.6 111.2 115.7 121.1 127.4 134.6 138.1 142.6 146.2 150.3 154.4 159.1 161.6 164.3 168.7 175.1 FEB 62.9 69.1 78.9 87.9 94.6 97.9 102.4 106.0 109.3 111.6 116.0 121.6 128.0 134.8 138.6 143.1 146.7 150.9 154.9 159.6 161.9 164.5 169.7 175.8 MAR 63.4 69.8 80.1 88.5 94.5 97.9 102.6 106.4 108.8 112.1 116.5 122.3 128.7 135.0 139.3 143.6 147.2 151.4 155.7 160.0 162.2 165.0 171.1 176.2 APR MAY 63.9 64.5 70.6 71.5 81.0 81.8 89.1 89.8 94.9 95.8 98.6 99.2 103.1 103.4 106.9 107.3 108.6 108.9 112.7 113.1 117.1 117.5 123.1 123.8 128.9 129.2 135.2 135.6 139.5 139.7 144.0 144.2 147.4 147.5 151.9 152.2 156.3 156.6 160.2 160.1 162.5 162.8 166.2 166.2 171.2 171.3 176.9 177.7 JUN 65.2 72.3 82.7 90.6 97.0 99.5 103.7 107.6 109.5 113.5 118.0 124.1 129.9 136.0 140.2 144.4 148.0 152.5 156.7 160.3 163.0 166.2 172.3 178.0 JUL 65.7 73.1 82.7 91.6 97.5 99.9 104.1 107.0 109.5 113.8 118.5 124.4 130.4 136.2 140.5 144.4 148.4 152.5 157.0 160.5 163.2 166.7 172.6 177.5 AUG 66.0 73.8 88.3 92.3 97.7 100.2 104.5 108.0 109.7 114.4 119.0 124.6 131.6 136.6 140.9 144.8 149.0 152.9 157.3 160.8 163.4 167.1 172.8 177.5 SEP 66.5 74.6 84.0 93.2 97.9 100.7 105.0 108.3 110.2 115.0 119.8 125.0 132.7 137.2 141.3 145.1 149.4 153.2 157.8 161.2 163.6 167.9 173.7 178.3 OCT 67.1 75.2 84.8 93.4 98.2 101.0 105.3 108.7 110.3 115.3 120.2 125.0 133.5 137.4 141.9 145.7 149.5 153.7 158.3 161.6 164.0 168.2 174.0 Chart is not seasonally adjusted NOV 67.4 75.9 85.5 93.7 98.0 101.2 105.3 109.0 110.4 115.4 120.3 125.9 133.8 137.8 142.0 145.8 149.7 153.6 158.6 161.5 164.0 168.3 174.1 DEC 67.7 76.7 86.3 94.0 97.6 101.3 105.3 109.3 110.5 115.4 120.5 126.1 133.8 137.9 141.9 145.8 149.7 153.5 158.6 161.3 163.9 168.3 174.0 AVG 65.2 72.6 82.4 90.9 96.5 99.6 103.9 107.6 109.6 113.6 118.3 124.0 130.7 136.2 140.3 144.5 148.2 152.4 156.9 160.5 163.0 166.6 172.1 CPI RATE 9.0% 13.3% 12.5% 8.9% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 1.1% 4.4% 4.4% 4.6% 6.1% 3.1% 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 3.3% 1.7% 1.6% 2.7% 3.4% U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS The CPI Moves Higher in September The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.5 percent in September, before seasonal adjustment, to a level of 178.3 (198284=100), as recently reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. For the 12month period ending in September, the CPI-U increased 2.6 percent. The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 0.6 percent in September, prior to seasonal adjustment. The September level of 174.8 was 2.6 percent higher than (the index in) September 2000. Following standard practice, price collection for the CPI was conducted throughout the month. Approximately two-thirds of the prices were collected after September11. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U rose 0.4 percent in September, following a 0.1 percent increase in August. The energy index, which declined in each of the preceding three months, turned up in September, Georgia Department of Labor advancing 2.6 percent. The index for petroleum-based energy rose 8.0 percent, more than offsetting a 2.2 percent decline in the index for energy services. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U rose 0.2 percent for the third consecutive month. Consumer prices rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.7 percent in the third quarter. This followed increases in the first and second quarters at annual rates of 4.0 and 3.7 percent, respectively, and brings the year-to -date annual rate to 2.8 percent. This compares with an increase of 3.4 percent for all of 2000. The housing index, which increased 0.3 percent in August, declined 0.2 percent in September. Shelter costs were unchanged in September, following a 0.5 percent rise in August. The index for fuels and utilities declined for the third consecutive month, down 1.6 percent in September. The indexes for natural gas and for electricity fell 5.5 and 0.6 percent, respectively, more than offsetting a 0.2 percent increase in the index for fuel oil. The transportation component, which declined in each of the preceding three months, turned up in September, advancing 1.6 percent. An 8.6 percent rise in the September index for gasoline was responsible for the increase. Prior to the September advance, gasoline prices had declined 17.0 percent in the three-month period following the peak level reached in May 2001. Airplane fares declined for the third consecutive month, down 0.8 percent in September. Medical care costs rose 0.3 percent in September to a level 4.5 percent higher than a year ago. In September, the index for medical care commodities increased 0.3 percent. The index for medical care services also rose 0.3 percent. Charges for professional and hospital related services increased 0.2 and 0.6 percent, respectively. Georgia Economic Indicators / November 2001 3 Georgia Index of Economic Indicators 197.7 Leading indicators Coincident indicators 173.0 148.3 123.7 99.0 1987-88 = 100 74.4 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 Weakness Spreads Through Georgia's Economy Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted. *** The Georgia Department of Labor's Index of Leading Economic Indicators decreased 0.3 percent in September to 169.7 from a revised 170.1, after seasonal adjustment. The index has grown 2.5 percent since September 2000. Georgia's economy has definitely cooled since the summer as softness has spread through various sectors of the state's economy. The weak business climate has depressed new business ventures and tightened profit margins. The largest contributor to the index's decrease was new business charters, which dropped 29.6 percent in September. New motor vehicle sales only slipped 2.2 percent as dealers pinned up demand by offering attractive financing deals. The value of nonresidential construction increased Recent 12 Months 173.5 Leading Coincident 170.3 167.2 164.0 160.8 157.6 1987-88 =100 ON D J F M AM J J A S The Leading Index reflects activity that will impact the economy for a duration of three to six months into the future. Coincident indicators measure current conditions. 19.9 percent, as interest rates continued to decline. The Index of Coincident Indicators declined 0.8 percent in September to 160.6 from a revised 161.9. The index continues to struggle as the economy decelerates. Nonagricultural employment continued its descent as employment slipped 0.3 percent in September. In the manufacturing sector, employment decreased 0.2 percent as weekly earnings and hours followed suit, slipping 0.1 and 1.1 percent, respectively. The slow down in the economy has translated into higher unemployment rates for the state. Georgia's unemployment rate increased onetenth of a percent after August's rate was revised upward to 3.9 percent. 4 Georgia Economic Indicators / November 2001 Georgia Department of Labor Data Summary September 2001 Georgia Economic Indicators Seasonally Adjusted Sep 2001 Aug 2001 Sep 2000 Percent Percent Change Change Aug 2001 Sep 2000 to to Sep 2001 Sep 2001 Nonagricultural Employment 3,996,968 4,009,907 4,009,019 Retail Employment 732,104 733,350 718,769 Manufacturing Employment 561,526 564,976 585,806 Manufacturing Workweek 40.3 40.8 41.0 Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $531.14 $531.54 $539.33 Deflated Manufacturing Earnings $297.89 $299.46 $310.49 Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled 7,485 8,662 14,124 Initial Unemployment Claims 49,812 50,742 34,313 Continued Unemployment Claims 266,143 268,978 147,905 Unemployment Rate (not seasonally adjusted) 4.0% 3.9% 3.8% Insured Unemployment Rate 1.71% 1.65% 0.94% New Motor Vehicle Sales 49,561 50,688 45,653 Residential Construction (building permits) 6,801 7,498 7,441 Nonresidential Construction (dollar value) $544,199,000 $454,058,000 $586,325,000 Deflated Nonresidential Construction $456,160,100 $380,921,100 $505,888,700 New Business Corporations 4,159 5,903 4,274 Total State Revenues $1,038,457,000 $1,099,342,000 $1,111,664,000 Deflated Total State Revenues $582,421,200 $619,347,600 $639,990,800 -0.32 -0.17 -0.61 -1.14 -0.07 -0.52 -13.59 -1.83 -1.05 -2.22 -9.30 19.85 19.75 -29.55 -5.54 -5.96 -0.30 1.86 -4.14 -1.68 -1.52 -4.06 -47.01 45.17 79.94 8.56 -8.60 -7.18 -9.83 -2.69 -6.59 -9.00 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / November 2001 5 Georgia Economic Indicators Nonagricultural Employment 4.12 1999-2000 2000-2001 4.07 MILLIONS 4.02 3.96 3.91 3.86 O N D J F M A M J J A S Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep 1999-2000 3,921,579 3,925,393 3,938,858 3,939,391 3,959,134 3,977,154 3,970,172 3,988,045 3,993,871 4,005,404 4,007,558 4,009,019 2000-2001 4,020,945 4,030,439 4,024,427 4,040,180 4,045,042 4,041,867 4,052,785 4,048,042 4,040,782 4,027,874 4,009,907 3,996,968 Retail Employment 753.5 1999-2000 2000-2001 741.6 729.7 THOUSANDS 717.8 705.9 694.0 O N D J F M A M J J A S Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep 1999-2000 709,943 715,004 722,770 709,013 715,823 719,353 720,379 720,877 721,421 723,043 721,309 718,769 2000-2001 726,337 733,610 735,734 732,765 731,550 734,253 734,736 739,086 739,249 738,695 733,350 732,104 Manufacturing Employment 610 1999-2000 2000-2001 597 585 THOUSANDS 572 559 547 O N D J F M A M J J A S 6 Georgia Economic Indicators / November 2001 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 1999-2000 594,288 593,718 595,486 590,229 591,515 590,915 589,013 588,422 587,924 589,020 585,594 585,806 2000-2001 585,901 581,835 582,143 576,177 579,216 574,610 573,204 571,023 567,924 569,034 564,976 561,526 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators Manufacturing Workweek 43.8 1999-2000 2000-2001 42.6 41.4 HOURS 40.1 38.9 37.7 O N D J F M A M J J A S Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 1999-2000 41.7 42.2 42.4 42.0 41.6 41.3 41.9 40.6 41.0 41.2 41.4 41.0 2000-2001 41.3 40.9 40.8 40.7 40.0 40.3 39.1 39.8 40.3 40.3 40.8 40.3 Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $561 1999-2000 2000-2001 $547 DOLLARS $534 $521 $507 $494 O N D J F M A M J J A S Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 1999-2000 $529.19 542.12 544.48 538.67 535.01 531.27 542.91 524.37 528.35 535.27 540.94 539.33 2000-2001 $542.76 543.47 535.92 525.05 522.38 526.21 510.55 523.71 531.47 527.00 531.54 531.14 Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $338 $325 1999-2000 2000-2001 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month 1999-2000 2000-2001 DOLLARS $313 $300 $287 $275 O N D J F M A M J J A S Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep $314.62 322.11 323.52 319.31 315.27 310.50 317.12 306.11 306.64 310.12 313.05 310.49 $311.93 312.16 308.00 299.85 297.14 298.64 288.61 294.71 298.58 296.90 299.46 297.89 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / November 2001 7 Georgia Economic Indicators Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled* 24.5 1999-2000 2000-2001 20.0 THOUSANDS 15.5 11.0 6.6 2.1 O N D J F M A M J J A S * Jobs listed with the Georgia Department of Labor Initial Unemployment Claims 74.8 1999-2000 2000-2001 62.0 THOUSANDS 49.2 36.4 23.6 10.9 O N D J F M A M J J A S Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 1999-2000 16,894 17,741 18,997 16,116 18,335 19,359 18,446 17,760 15,990 16,354 15,881 14,124 2000-2001 13,640 12,566 11,507 10,951 11,955 11,596 10,661 9,448 7,826 8,612 8,662 7,485 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 1999-2000 27,653 28,483 32,536 30,852 27,421 26,430 25,740 28,821 29,186 31,422 34,375 34,313 2000-2001 38,271 45,620 43,776 50,354 45,517 45,582 52,459 60,285 50,442 59,258 50,742 49,812 Continued Unemployment Claims 354.2 1999-2000 2000-2001 294.0 THOUSANDS 233.8 173.6 113.4 53.1 O N D J F M A M J J A S 8 Georgia Economic Indicators / November 2001 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 1999-2000 139,033 154,977 138,052 153,719 134,472 122,763 131,083 148,971 135,417 151,092 152,030 147,905 2000-2001 184,770 164,381 167,498 211,150 195,343 182,949 264,655 239,858 246,537 283,727 268,978 266,143 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate * 5.1 1999-2000 2000-2001 4.5 PERCENTAGES 4.0 3.4 2.9 2.4 O N D J F M A M J J A S * Not Seasonally Adjusted Insured Unemployment Rate 2.17 1999-2000 2000-2001 1.82 PERCENTAGES 1.48 1.13 0.79 0.44 O N D J F M A M J J A S Monthly Data Not Seasonally Adjusted Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep 1999-2000 4.1 % 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.8 3.9 3.5 3.7 4.4 4.1 3.8 3.8 2000-2001 3.7 % 3.2 3.0 3.3 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.5 4.2 4.0 3.9 4.0 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep 1999-2000 0.88 % 0.88 0.85 0.87 0.83 0.83 0.85 0.85 0.89 0.92 0.97 0.94 2000-2001 0.95 % 1.04 1.21 1.18 1.18 1.28 1.33 1.51 1.58 1.75 1.65 1.71 New Motor Vehicle Sales 68 1999-2000 2000-2001 60 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month 1999-2000 2000-2001 THOUSANDS 51 43 35 27 O N D J F M A M J J A S Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep 43,629 58,133 48,037 52,718 54,602 55,190 50,779 52,123 44,609 43,177 54,003 45,653 45,177 44,090 36,195 56,975 44,725 48,624 47,789 50,078 42,210 41,964 50,688 49,561 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / November 2001 9 Georgia Economic Indicators Residential Construction 9,935 1999-2000 2000-2001 9,128 HOUSEHOLD UNITS 8,320 7,512 6,704 5,896 O N D J F M A M J J A S Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 1999-2000 7,288 8,622 7,203 8,031 8,125 8,262 7,941 8,084 7,732 7,965 7,186 7,441 2000-2001 7,157 7,210 6,920 8,628 8,054 7,287 7,784 8,310 9,005 8,751 7,498 6,801 Nonresidential Construction $843 1999-2000 2000-2001 $705 $567 MILLIONS $429 $290 $152 O N D J F M A M J J A S Deflated Nonresidential Construction $875 1999-2000 2000-2001 $727 $580 MILLIONS $433 $285 $138 O N D J F M A M J J A S 10 Georgia Economic Indicators / November 2001 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 1999-2000 $365,637,000 431,639,000 724,342,000 480,575,000 391,992,000 555,717,000 789,116,000 548,667,000 654,704,000 426,077,000 393,006,000 586,325,000 2000-2001 $519,280,000 365,900,000 469,039,000 559,265,000 438,065,000 442,190,000 619,469,000 401,734,000 495,771,000 554,259,000 454,058,000 544,199,000 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep 1999-2000 $328,514,800 386,081,400 646,157,000 421,557,000 343,551,300 487,899,000 689,786,700 477,932,900 568,813,200 368,260,200 339,383,400 505,888,700 2000-2001 $446,500,400 313,807,900 401,231,000 476,375,600 372,187,800 373,156,100 523,642,400 338,730,200 416,614,300 466,155,600 380,921,100 456,160,100 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators New Business Corporations* 6,672 1999-2000 2000-2001 5,982 CHARTERS 5,292 4,602 3,912 3,222 O N D J F M A M J J A S * Includes limited liability companies Total State Revenues $1,683 1999-2000 2000-2001 $1,482 $1,281 MILLIONS $1,080 $879 $679 S O N D J F M A J J A S Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Ap r M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep 1999-2000 4,049 4,427 4,762 4,731 4,588 4,696 4,296 5,172 4,652 4,203 5,098 4,274 2000-2001 4,566 4,779 4,381 4,880 4,498 5,033 4,745 4,617 4,686 4,511 5,903 4,159 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep 1999-2000 2000-2001 $1,082,132,000 1,104,184,000 1,046,748,000 1,150,812,000 1,025,035,000 1,002,041,000 1,054,124,000 1,364,711,000 1,067,272,000 1,133,065,000 1,177,333,000 1,111,664,000 $1,227,641,000 1,146,891,000 1,107,590,000 1,358,146,000 1,084,760,000 919,280,000 964,287,000 1,446,688,000 1,272,264,000 1,068,000,000 1,099,342,000 1,038,457,000 Deflated Total State Revenues $940 1999-2000 2000-2001 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted MILLIONS $832 $723 $614 $505 $397 O N D J F M A M J J A S Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep 1999-2000 $643,360,300 656,080,800 621,953,700 682,164,800 604,027,700 585,646,400 615,726,600 796,678,900 619,426,600 656,468,700 681,327,000 639,990,800 2000-2001 $705,540,800 658,754,200 636,546,000 775,640,200 617,042,100 521,725,300 545,102,900 814,118,200 714,755,100 601,690,100 619,347,600 582,421,200 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / November 2001 11 To receive a free subscription to this publication, please complete and mail this form Mail to: If you prefer, you may e-mail your 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