Georgia economic indicators, monthly report [Vol. 7, no. 6 (Aug. 2001)]

GEORGIA

Economic

Indicators

A Monthly Report of Georgia State Labor Market and Economic Trends

)KCKIJ

Volume 7, Issue 6

Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner

Georgia Economic Indicators
Monthly Report June 2001 Data Volume 7, Issue 6 August 2001
Cover art: Gillespie Seldon Institute, Cordele, Georgia - Huey J. Theus, Mableton, Georgia

Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E. Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177.
Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us

Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner

Equal Opportunity Employer/Programs - Auxiliary Aids and Services Available Upon Request to Individuals With Disabilities

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2001 1

Introduction

G eorgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is designed to provide in a single publication data on a
number of indicators used to measure movement of the state's economy.
The indicators have been collected and disseminated for many years by state and federal governments and private agencies, but not under a single cover. Contributing agencies include Georgia's Department of Labor, Department of Revenue and Office of Secretary of State, the U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the F.W. Dodge Company.
All data except those contained in the U.S. Consumer Price Index chart on Page 3 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data that have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars.
Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually in February.
The purpose of the publications is to serve the business and professional communities, economic developers, economists, educators and others who have need for information on state economic trends.
Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report and Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Bill Webb, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177.

Data Sources

Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Employment, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Retail Employment, Manufacturing Employment and Manufacturing Workweek -- Georgia Department of Labor
New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue
New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State
Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce
Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group
* Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center

2 Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2001

Georgia Department of Labor

Consumer Price Index

YEAR 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

JAN
62.5 68.3 77.8 87.0 94.3 97.8 101.9 105.5 109.6 111.2 115.7 121.1 127.4 134.6 138.1 142.6 146.2 150.3 154.4 159.1 161.6 164.3 168.7 175.1

FEB
62.9 69.1 78.9 87.9 94.6 97.9 102.4 106.0 109.3 111.6 116.0 121.6 128.0 134.8 138.6 143.1 146.7 150.9 154.9 159.6 161.9 164.5 169.7 175.8

MAR
63.4 69.8 80.1 88.5 94.5 97.9 102.6 106.4 108.8 112.1 116.5 122.3 128.7 135.0 139.3 143.6 147.2 151.4 155.7 160.0 162.2 165.0 171.1 176.2

APR
63.9 70.6 81.0 89.1 94.9 98.6 103.1 106.9 108.6 112.7 117.1 123.1 128.9 135.2 139.5 144.0 147.4 151.9 156.3 160.2 162.5 166.2 171.2 176.9

MAY
64.5 71.5 81.8 89.8 95.8 99.2 103.4 107.3 108.9 113.1 117.5 123.8 129.2 135.6 139.7 144.2 147.5 152.2 156.6 160.1 162.8 166.2 171.3 177.7

JUN
65.2 72.3 82.7 90.6 97.0 99.5 103.7 107.6 109.5 113.5 118.0 124.1 129.9 136.0 140.2 144.4 148.0 152.5 156.7 160.3 163.0 166.2 172.3 178.0

JUL
65.7 73.1 82.7 91.6 97.5 99.9 104.1 107.0 109.5 113.8 118.5 124.4 130.4 136.2 140.5 144.4 148.4 152.5 157.0 160.5 163.2 166.7 172.6

AUG
66.0 73.8 88.3 92.3 97.7 100.2 104.5 108.0 109.7 114.4 119.0 124.6 131.6 136.6 140.9 144.8 149.0 152.9 157.3 160.8 163.4 167.1 172.8

SEP
66.5 74.6 84.0 93.2 97.9 100.7 105.0 108.3 110.2 115.0 119.8 125.0 132.7 137.2 141.3 145.1 149.4 153.2 157.8 161.2 163.6 167.9 173.7

OCT
67.1 75.2 84.8 93.4 98.2 101.0 105.3 108.7 110.3 115.3 120.2 125.0 133.5 137.4 141.9 145.7 149.5 153.7 158.3 161.6 164.0 168.2 174.0

Chart is not seasonally adjusted

NOV
67.4 75.9 85.5 93.7 98.0 101.2 105.3 109.0 110.4 115.4 120.3 125.9 133.8 137.8 142.0 145.8 149.7 153.6 158.6 161.5 164.0 168.3 174.1

DEC
67.7 76.7 86.3 94.0 97.6 101.3 105.3 109.3 110.5 115.4 120.5 126.1 133.8 137.9 141.9 145.8 149.7 153.5 158.6 161.3 163.9 168.3 174.0

AVG
65.2 72.6 82.4 90.9 96.5 99.6 103.9 107.6 109.6 113.6 118.3 124.0 130.7 136.2 140.3 144.5 148.2 152.4 156.9 160.5 163.0 166.6 172.1

CPI RATE
9.0% 13.3% 12.5% 8.9% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 1.1% 4.4% 4.4% 4.6% 6.1% 3.1% 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 3.3% 1.7% 1.6% 2.7% 3.4%

U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS

Consumer Price Index surpasses last year's increase

The Consumer Price Index for All

Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased

0.2 percent in June, before seasonal

adjustment, to a level of 178.0 (1982-

84=100), according to the Bureau of

Labor Statistics of the U.S.

Department of Labor. For the 12-

month period ended in June, the CPI-

U increased 3.2 percent.

The Consumer Price Index for

Urban Wage Earners and Clerical

Workers (CPI-W) rose 0.1 percent in

June, prior to seasonal adjustment.

The June level of 174.6 was 3.2

percent higher than the index in June

2000.

On a seasonally adjusted basis,

the CPI-U rose 0.2 percent in June,

following a 0.4 percent increase in

May. The energy index, which

increased 3.1 percent in May, declined

0.9 percent in June. Excluding food

and energy, the CPI-U rose 0.3

percent in June, following a 0.1

percent increase in May. Larger

increases in the indexes for airline

fares and lodging away from home

largely

accounted for the

Georgia Department of Labor

acceleration in June. Consumer prices rose for urban
consumers at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 3.7 percent in the second quarter after advancing at a 4.0 percent rate in the first three months of 2001. This brings the year-to-date annual rate to 3.8 percent and compares with an increase of 3.4 percent for all of 2000. The larger increase in the overall CPI-U thus far in 2001 reflects the continued sharp advance in energy prices.
The CPI-U excluding food and energy advanced at a 2.6 percent rate in the second quarter of 2001, following an increase at a 3.5 percent rate in the first three months of 2001. The advance at a 3.1 percent SAAR for the first half of 2001 compares with a 2.6 percent increase for all of 2000. This acceleration has been concentrated in the services components; the index for services less energy services increased 3.4 percent in all of 2000 and has risen at a 4.3

percent SAAR in the first 6 months of this year. Contributing to this acceleration were larger increases in the indexes for shelter, for medical care services, and for airline fares.
In June, the housing index rose 0.4 percent for the second consecutive month. Shelter costs advanced 0.5 percent in June, the same as in May. The index for public transportation rose 3.8 percent in June, reflecting a 5.0 percent increase in airline fares. Medical care costs rose 0.4 percent in June to a level 4.6 percent higher than a year ago.
During the month of June, the index for medical care commodities, prescription drugs, nonprescription drugs and medical supplies increased 0.5 percent. The index for medical care services rose 0.4 percent in June. Charges for professional services and for hospital and related services increased 0.3 and 0.4 percent, respectively.

Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2001 3

Georgia Index of Economic Indicators

197.7

Leading indicators Coincident indicators

173.0

148.3

123.7

99.0
1987-88 = 100

74.4

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

Georgia's Leading Economic Indicator surges ahead

Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted.
***
The Georgia Department of Labor's Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 1.4 percent in June to 168.1 from a revised 165.8, after seasonal adjustment.
For the second month in a row Georgia's Leading Index has moved upward after a series of up and down fluctuations this year. Modest consecutive increases in the lead index indicates that the period of slowing economic growth is nearing an end.
Initial unemployment claims decreased 16.3 percent in June. The value of nonresidential construction rebounded 23.4 percent in June after posting a 35.2 percent loss in May. Building permits for residential construction increased

Recent 12 Months
171.4 Leading Coincident
168.7

166.1

163.5

160.8 158.2

1987-88 =100

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for the fourth consecutive month by posting a 8.37 percent increase in June. Sales of new motor vehicles decreased 15.7 percent during the month.
The Index of Coincident Indicators, which is designed to measure current conditions, decreased 1.1 percent in June to

163.3, from a revised 165.2 in May. Nonagricultural employment was flat during the month of June as retail employment moved upward 0.2 percent and manufacturing decreased 0.5 percent. In the manufacturing sector, weekly earnings and hours worked increased 1.4 percent and 1.3 percent respectively.
The preliminary unemployment rate for the state of Georgia increased to 4.1 percent during the month of June, six-tenths of a percent higher than May's rate and three-tenths of a percent lower then June's 2000 rate. As the economy continues to show mixed signals the public awaits the impact of tax rebate checks and lower interest rates.

4 Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2001

Georgia Department of Labor

Data Summary

June 2001

Georgia Economic Indicators
Seasonally Adjusted

June 2001

May 2001

June 2000

Percent Percent

Change Change

May 2001 June 2000

to

to

June 2001 June 2001

Nonagricultural Employment

4,048,754

4,048,042

3,993,871

Retail Employment

739,948

739,086

721,421

Manufacturing Employment

568,423

571,023

587,924

Manufacturing Workweek

40.2

39.8

41.0

Weekly Manufacturing Earnings

$530.95

$523.71

$528.35

Deflated Manufacturing Earnings

$298.29

$294.71

$306.64

Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled

7,826

9,448

15,990

Initial Unemployment Claims

50,442

60,285

29,186

Continued Unemployment Claims

246,537

239,858

135,417

Unemployment Rate ( not seasonally adjusted)

4.1%

3.5%

4.4%

Insured Unemployment Rate

1.58%

1.51%

0.89%

New Motor Vehicle Sales

42,210

50,078

44,609

Residential Construction (building permits)

9,005

8,310

7,732

Nonresidential Construction (dollar value) $495,771,000 $401,734,000 $654,704,000

Deflated Nonresidential Construction

$415,218,600 $337,875,500 $571,793,900

New Business Corporations

4,686

4,617

4,652

Total State Revenues

$1,272,264,000 $1,446,688,000 $1,067,272,000

Deflated Total State Revenues

$714,755,100 $814,118,200 $619,426,600

0.02 0.12 -0.46 1.26 1.38 1.21 -17.17 -16.33 2.78
-15.71 8.37 23.41 22.89 1.50 -12.06 -12.20

1.37 2.57 -3.32 -1.95 0.49 -2.73 -51.06 72.83 82.06
-5.38 16.47 -24.28 -27.38 0.73 19.21 15.39

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2001 5

Georgia Economic Indicators
Nonagricultural Employment
4.13 1999-2000 2000-2001
4.07

MILLIONS

4.00

3.94

3.87

3.81

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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay June

1999-2000
3,880,265 3,895,893 3,911,070 3,921,579 3,925,393 3,938,858 3,939,391 3,959,134 3,977,154 3,970,172 3,988,045 3,993,871

2000-2001
4,005,404 4,007,558 4,009,019 4,020,945 4,030,439 4,024,427 4,040,180 4,045,042 4,041,867 4,052,785 4,048,042 4,048,754

Retail Employment

756.1

1999-2000

2000-2001

742.3

728.6

THOUSANDS

714.9

701.1

687.4

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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June

1999-2000
703,688 707,831 706,692 709,943 715,004 722,770 709,013 715,823 719,353 720,379 720,877 721,421

2000-2001
723,043 721,309 718,769 726,337 733,610 735,734 732,765 731,550 734,253 734,736 739,086 739,948

Manufacturing Employment

615

1999-2000

2000-2001

603

591

THOUSANDS

579

567

555

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6 Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2001

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June

1999-2000
600,461 596,282 596,144 594,288 593,718 595,486 590,229 591,515 590,915 589,013 588,422 587,924

2000-2001
589,020 585,594 585,806 585,901 581,835 582,143 576,177 579,216 574,610 573,204 571,023 568,423

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators

Manufacturing Workweek

43.8

1999-2000

2000-2001

42.6

HOURS

41.4

40.1

38.9

37.7

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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June

1999-2000
41.8 41.2 41.2 41.7 42.2 42.4 42.0 41.6 41.3 41.9 40.6 41.0

2000-2001
41.2 41.4 41.0 41.3 40.9 40.8 40.7 40.0 40.3 39.1 39.8 40.2

Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings

$561

1999-2000

2000-2001

$547

DOLLARS

$534

$521

$507

$494

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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June

1999-2000
$521.20 514.84 524.94 529.19 542.12 544.48 538.67 535.01 531.27 542.91 524.37 528.35

2000-2001
$535.27 540.94 539.33 542.76 543.47 535.92 525.05 522.38 526.21 510.55 523.71 530.95

Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings

$338 $325

1999-2000

2000-2001

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month 1999-2000

2000-2001

DOLLARS

$313

$300

$287

$275

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Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June

$312.66 308.10 312.65 314.62 322.11 323.52 319.31 315.27 310.50 317.12 306.11 306.64

$310.12 313.05 310.49 311.93 312.16 308.00 299.85 297.14 298.64 288.61 294.71 298.29

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2001 7

Georgia Economic Indicators

Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled*

24.5

1999-2000

2000-2001

20.2

THOUSANDS

15.9

11.6

7.3

3.0

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* Jobs listed with the Georgia Department of Labor

Initial Unemployment Claims

74.8

1999-2000

2000-2001

62.0

THOUSANDS

49.2

36.4

23.6

10.9

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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June

1999-2000
16,182 17,257 17,162 16,894 17,741 18,997 16,116 18,335 19,359 18,446 17,760 15,990

2000-2001
16,354 15,881 14,124 13,640 12,566 11,507 10,951 11,955 11,596 10,661 9,448 7,826

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jul Aug Sep Oct
Nov Dec
Jan Feb Mar Apr
May
June

1999-2000
31,190 31,429 29,589 27,653
28,483 32,536
30,852 27,421 26,430 25,740
28,821
29,186

2000-2001
31,422 34,375 34,313 38,271
45,620 43,776
50,354 45,517 45,582 52,459
60,285
50,442

Continued Unemployment Claims

327.3

1999-2000

2000-2001

274.7

THOUSANDS

222.2

169.6

117.1

64.5

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8 Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2001

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jul Aug Sep Oct
Nov Dec
Jan
Feb Mar Apr
May
June

1999-2000
128,964 162,340 132,319 139,033
154,977 138,052
153,719
134,472 122,763 131,083
148,971
135,417

2000-2001
151,092 152,030 147,905 184,770
164,381 167,498
211,150
195,343 182,949 264,655
239,858
246,537

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate *

5.1

1999-2000

2000-2001

4.5

PERCENTAGES

4.0

3.4

2.9

2.4

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* Not Seasonally Adjusted

Insured Unemployment Rate

1.89

1999-2000

2000-2001

1.61

PERCENTAGES

1.34

1.06

0.78

0.51

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Monthly Data
Not Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay June

1999-2000
4.3 % 4.1 4.2 4.1 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.8 3.9 3.5 3.7 4.4

2000-2001
4.1 % 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.2 3.0 3.3 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.5 4.1

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay June

1999-2000
0.93 % 0.93 0.90 0.88 0.88 0.85 0.87 0.83 0.83 0.85 0.85 0.89

2000-2001
0.92 % 0.97 0.94 0.95 1.04 1.21 1.18 1.18 1.28 1.33 1.51 1.58

New Motor Vehicle Sales

68

1999-2000

2000-2001

60

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month

1999-2000

2000-2001

THOUSANDS

51

43

35

27

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Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay June

42,573 46,239 42,194 43,629 58,133 48,037 52,718 54,602 55,190 50,779 52,123 44,609

43,177 54,003 45,653 45,177 44,090 36,195 56,975 44,725 48,624 47,789 50,078 42,210

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2001 9

Georgia Economic Indicators

Residential Construction

9,934

1999-2000

2000-2001

9,157

HOUSEHOLD UNITS

8,381

7,604

6,828

6,051

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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June

1999-2000
7,155 7,489 7,323 7,288 8,622 7,203 8,031 8,125 8,262 7,941 8,084 7,732

2000-2001
7,965 7,186 7,441 7,157 7,210 6,920 8,628 8,054 7,287 7,784 8,310 9,005

Nonresidential Construction

$1004

1999-2000

2000-2001

$833

$663

MILLIONS

$493

$323

$152

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Deflated Nonresidential Construction

$875

1999-2000

2000-2001

$727

$580

MILLIONS

$433

$285

$138

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10 Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2001

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June

1999-2000
$572,688,000 539,049,000 474,775,000 365,637,000 431,639,000 724,342,000 480,575,000 391,992,000 555,717,000 789,116,000 548,667,000 654,704,000

2000-2001
$426,077,000 393,006,000 586,325,000 519,280,000 365,900,000 469,039,000 559,265,000 438,065,000 442,190,000 619,469,000 401,734,000 495,771,000

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay June

1999-2000
$517,801,100 486,506,300 428,110,900 328,219,900 385,736,400 645,006,200 426,041,700 346,588,900 490,482,800 692,814,700 480,444,000 571,793,900

2000-2001
$370,824,200 341,744,300 508,080,600 448,815,900 314,617,400 401,918,600 477,596,100 373,138,800 375,373,500 524,973,700 337,875,500 415,218,600

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators

New Business Corporations*

5,679

1999-2000

2000-2001

5,251

CHARTERS

4,822

4,393

3,965

3,536

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* Includes limited liability companies

Total State Revenues

$1,683

1999-2000

2000-2001

$1,482

$1,281

MILLIONS

$1,080

$879

$679

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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Ap r M ay June

1999-2000
4,334 4,316 4,622 4,049 4,427 4,762 4,731 4,588 4,696 4,296 5,172 4,652

2000-2001
4,203 5,098 4,274 4,566 4,779 4,381 4,880 4,498 5,033 4,745 4,617 4,686

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay June

1999-2000

2000-2001

$1,013,915,000 1,152,734,000
956,358,000 1,082,132,000 1,104,184,000 1,046,748,000 1,150,812,000 1,025,035,000 1,002,041,000 1,054,124,000 1,364,711,000 1,067,272,000

$1,133,065,000 1,177,333,000 1,111,664,000 1,227,641,000 1,146,891,000 1,107,590,000 1,358,146,000 1,084,760,000
919,280,000 964,287,000 1,446,688,000 1,272,264,000

Deflated Total State Revenues

$940

1999-2000

2000-2001

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

MILLIONS

$832

$723

$614

$505

$397

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Month
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay June

1999-2000
$608,227,400 689,846,800 569,599,800 643,360,300 656,080,800 621,953,700 682,164,800 604,027,700 585,646,400 615,726,600 796,678,900 619,426,600

2000-2001
$656,468,700 681,327,000 639,990,800 705,540,800 658,754,200 636,546,000 775,640,200 617,042,100 521,725,300 545,102,900 814,118,200 714,755,100

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2001 11

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