GEORGIA Economic Indicators A Monthly Report of Georgia State Labor Market and Economic Trends )KCKIJ Volume 7, Issue 6 Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner Georgia Economic Indicators Monthly Report June 2001 Data Volume 7, Issue 6 August 2001 Cover art: Gillespie Seldon Institute, Cordele, Georgia - Huey J. Theus, Mableton, Georgia Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E. Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177. Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner Equal Opportunity Employer/Programs - Auxiliary Aids and Services Available Upon Request to Individuals With Disabilities Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2001 1 Introduction G eorgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is designed to provide in a single publication data on a number of indicators used to measure movement of the state's economy. The indicators have been collected and disseminated for many years by state and federal governments and private agencies, but not under a single cover. Contributing agencies include Georgia's Department of Labor, Department of Revenue and Office of Secretary of State, the U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the F.W. Dodge Company. All data except those contained in the U.S. Consumer Price Index chart on Page 3 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data that have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars. Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually in February. The purpose of the publications is to serve the business and professional communities, economic developers, economists, educators and others who have need for information on state economic trends. Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report and Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Bill Webb, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177. Data Sources Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Employment, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Retail Employment, Manufacturing Employment and Manufacturing Workweek -- Georgia Department of Labor New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group * Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center 2 Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2001 Georgia Department of Labor Consumer Price Index YEAR 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 JAN 62.5 68.3 77.8 87.0 94.3 97.8 101.9 105.5 109.6 111.2 115.7 121.1 127.4 134.6 138.1 142.6 146.2 150.3 154.4 159.1 161.6 164.3 168.7 175.1 FEB 62.9 69.1 78.9 87.9 94.6 97.9 102.4 106.0 109.3 111.6 116.0 121.6 128.0 134.8 138.6 143.1 146.7 150.9 154.9 159.6 161.9 164.5 169.7 175.8 MAR 63.4 69.8 80.1 88.5 94.5 97.9 102.6 106.4 108.8 112.1 116.5 122.3 128.7 135.0 139.3 143.6 147.2 151.4 155.7 160.0 162.2 165.0 171.1 176.2 APR 63.9 70.6 81.0 89.1 94.9 98.6 103.1 106.9 108.6 112.7 117.1 123.1 128.9 135.2 139.5 144.0 147.4 151.9 156.3 160.2 162.5 166.2 171.2 176.9 MAY 64.5 71.5 81.8 89.8 95.8 99.2 103.4 107.3 108.9 113.1 117.5 123.8 129.2 135.6 139.7 144.2 147.5 152.2 156.6 160.1 162.8 166.2 171.3 177.7 JUN 65.2 72.3 82.7 90.6 97.0 99.5 103.7 107.6 109.5 113.5 118.0 124.1 129.9 136.0 140.2 144.4 148.0 152.5 156.7 160.3 163.0 166.2 172.3 178.0 JUL 65.7 73.1 82.7 91.6 97.5 99.9 104.1 107.0 109.5 113.8 118.5 124.4 130.4 136.2 140.5 144.4 148.4 152.5 157.0 160.5 163.2 166.7 172.6 AUG 66.0 73.8 88.3 92.3 97.7 100.2 104.5 108.0 109.7 114.4 119.0 124.6 131.6 136.6 140.9 144.8 149.0 152.9 157.3 160.8 163.4 167.1 172.8 SEP 66.5 74.6 84.0 93.2 97.9 100.7 105.0 108.3 110.2 115.0 119.8 125.0 132.7 137.2 141.3 145.1 149.4 153.2 157.8 161.2 163.6 167.9 173.7 OCT 67.1 75.2 84.8 93.4 98.2 101.0 105.3 108.7 110.3 115.3 120.2 125.0 133.5 137.4 141.9 145.7 149.5 153.7 158.3 161.6 164.0 168.2 174.0 Chart is not seasonally adjusted NOV 67.4 75.9 85.5 93.7 98.0 101.2 105.3 109.0 110.4 115.4 120.3 125.9 133.8 137.8 142.0 145.8 149.7 153.6 158.6 161.5 164.0 168.3 174.1 DEC 67.7 76.7 86.3 94.0 97.6 101.3 105.3 109.3 110.5 115.4 120.5 126.1 133.8 137.9 141.9 145.8 149.7 153.5 158.6 161.3 163.9 168.3 174.0 AVG 65.2 72.6 82.4 90.9 96.5 99.6 103.9 107.6 109.6 113.6 118.3 124.0 130.7 136.2 140.3 144.5 148.2 152.4 156.9 160.5 163.0 166.6 172.1 CPI RATE 9.0% 13.3% 12.5% 8.9% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 1.1% 4.4% 4.4% 4.6% 6.1% 3.1% 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 3.3% 1.7% 1.6% 2.7% 3.4% U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS Consumer Price Index surpasses last year's increase The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in June, before seasonal adjustment, to a level of 178.0 (1982- 84=100), according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. For the 12- month period ended in June, the CPI- U increased 3.2 percent. The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) rose 0.1 percent in June, prior to seasonal adjustment. The June level of 174.6 was 3.2 percent higher than the index in June 2000. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U rose 0.2 percent in June, following a 0.4 percent increase in May. The energy index, which increased 3.1 percent in May, declined 0.9 percent in June. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U rose 0.3 percent in June, following a 0.1 percent increase in May. Larger increases in the indexes for airline fares and lodging away from home largely accounted for the Georgia Department of Labor acceleration in June. Consumer prices rose for urban consumers at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 3.7 percent in the second quarter after advancing at a 4.0 percent rate in the first three months of 2001. This brings the year-to-date annual rate to 3.8 percent and compares with an increase of 3.4 percent for all of 2000. The larger increase in the overall CPI-U thus far in 2001 reflects the continued sharp advance in energy prices. The CPI-U excluding food and energy advanced at a 2.6 percent rate in the second quarter of 2001, following an increase at a 3.5 percent rate in the first three months of 2001. The advance at a 3.1 percent SAAR for the first half of 2001 compares with a 2.6 percent increase for all of 2000. This acceleration has been concentrated in the services components; the index for services less energy services increased 3.4 percent in all of 2000 and has risen at a 4.3 percent SAAR in the first 6 months of this year. Contributing to this acceleration were larger increases in the indexes for shelter, for medical care services, and for airline fares. In June, the housing index rose 0.4 percent for the second consecutive month. Shelter costs advanced 0.5 percent in June, the same as in May. The index for public transportation rose 3.8 percent in June, reflecting a 5.0 percent increase in airline fares. Medical care costs rose 0.4 percent in June to a level 4.6 percent higher than a year ago. During the month of June, the index for medical care commodities, prescription drugs, nonprescription drugs and medical supplies increased 0.5 percent. The index for medical care services rose 0.4 percent in June. Charges for professional services and for hospital and related services increased 0.3 and 0.4 percent, respectively. Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2001 3 Georgia Index of Economic Indicators 197.7 Leading indicators Coincident indicators 173.0 148.3 123.7 99.0 1987-88 = 100 74.4 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 Georgia's Leading Economic Indicator surges ahead Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted. *** The Georgia Department of Labor's Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 1.4 percent in June to 168.1 from a revised 165.8, after seasonal adjustment. For the second month in a row Georgia's Leading Index has moved upward after a series of up and down fluctuations this year. Modest consecutive increases in the lead index indicates that the period of slowing economic growth is nearing an end. Initial unemployment claims decreased 16.3 percent in June. The value of nonresidential construction rebounded 23.4 percent in June after posting a 35.2 percent loss in May. Building permits for residential construction increased Recent 12 Months 171.4 Leading Coincident 168.7 166.1 163.5 160.8 158.2 1987-88 =100 J A S O N D J F M AM J for the fourth consecutive month by posting a 8.37 percent increase in June. Sales of new motor vehicles decreased 15.7 percent during the month. The Index of Coincident Indicators, which is designed to measure current conditions, decreased 1.1 percent in June to 163.3, from a revised 165.2 in May. Nonagricultural employment was flat during the month of June as retail employment moved upward 0.2 percent and manufacturing decreased 0.5 percent. In the manufacturing sector, weekly earnings and hours worked increased 1.4 percent and 1.3 percent respectively. The preliminary unemployment rate for the state of Georgia increased to 4.1 percent during the month of June, six-tenths of a percent higher than May's rate and three-tenths of a percent lower then June's 2000 rate. As the economy continues to show mixed signals the public awaits the impact of tax rebate checks and lower interest rates. 4 Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2001 Georgia Department of Labor Data Summary June 2001 Georgia Economic Indicators Seasonally Adjusted June 2001 May 2001 June 2000 Percent Percent Change Change May 2001 June 2000 to to June 2001 June 2001 Nonagricultural Employment 4,048,754 4,048,042 3,993,871 Retail Employment 739,948 739,086 721,421 Manufacturing Employment 568,423 571,023 587,924 Manufacturing Workweek 40.2 39.8 41.0 Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $530.95 $523.71 $528.35 Deflated Manufacturing Earnings $298.29 $294.71 $306.64 Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled 7,826 9,448 15,990 Initial Unemployment Claims 50,442 60,285 29,186 Continued Unemployment Claims 246,537 239,858 135,417 Unemployment Rate ( not seasonally adjusted) 4.1% 3.5% 4.4% Insured Unemployment Rate 1.58% 1.51% 0.89% New Motor Vehicle Sales 42,210 50,078 44,609 Residential Construction (building permits) 9,005 8,310 7,732 Nonresidential Construction (dollar value) $495,771,000 $401,734,000 $654,704,000 Deflated Nonresidential Construction $415,218,600 $337,875,500 $571,793,900 New Business Corporations 4,686 4,617 4,652 Total State Revenues $1,272,264,000 $1,446,688,000 $1,067,272,000 Deflated Total State Revenues $714,755,100 $814,118,200 $619,426,600 0.02 0.12 -0.46 1.26 1.38 1.21 -17.17 -16.33 2.78 -15.71 8.37 23.41 22.89 1.50 -12.06 -12.20 1.37 2.57 -3.32 -1.95 0.49 -2.73 -51.06 72.83 82.06 -5.38 16.47 -24.28 -27.38 0.73 19.21 15.39 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2001 5 Georgia Economic Indicators Nonagricultural Employment 4.13 1999-2000 2000-2001 4.07 MILLIONS 4.00 3.94 3.87 3.81 J A S O N D J F M A M J Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay June 1999-2000 3,880,265 3,895,893 3,911,070 3,921,579 3,925,393 3,938,858 3,939,391 3,959,134 3,977,154 3,970,172 3,988,045 3,993,871 2000-2001 4,005,404 4,007,558 4,009,019 4,020,945 4,030,439 4,024,427 4,040,180 4,045,042 4,041,867 4,052,785 4,048,042 4,048,754 Retail Employment 756.1 1999-2000 2000-2001 742.3 728.6 THOUSANDS 714.9 701.1 687.4 J A S O N D J F M A M J Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June 1999-2000 703,688 707,831 706,692 709,943 715,004 722,770 709,013 715,823 719,353 720,379 720,877 721,421 2000-2001 723,043 721,309 718,769 726,337 733,610 735,734 732,765 731,550 734,253 734,736 739,086 739,948 Manufacturing Employment 615 1999-2000 2000-2001 603 591 THOUSANDS 579 567 555 J A S O N D J F M A M J 6 Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2001 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June 1999-2000 600,461 596,282 596,144 594,288 593,718 595,486 590,229 591,515 590,915 589,013 588,422 587,924 2000-2001 589,020 585,594 585,806 585,901 581,835 582,143 576,177 579,216 574,610 573,204 571,023 568,423 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators Manufacturing Workweek 43.8 1999-2000 2000-2001 42.6 HOURS 41.4 40.1 38.9 37.7 J A S O N D J F M A M J Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June 1999-2000 41.8 41.2 41.2 41.7 42.2 42.4 42.0 41.6 41.3 41.9 40.6 41.0 2000-2001 41.2 41.4 41.0 41.3 40.9 40.8 40.7 40.0 40.3 39.1 39.8 40.2 Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $561 1999-2000 2000-2001 $547 DOLLARS $534 $521 $507 $494 J A S O N D J F M A M J Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June 1999-2000 $521.20 514.84 524.94 529.19 542.12 544.48 538.67 535.01 531.27 542.91 524.37 528.35 2000-2001 $535.27 540.94 539.33 542.76 543.47 535.92 525.05 522.38 526.21 510.55 523.71 530.95 Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $338 $325 1999-2000 2000-2001 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month 1999-2000 2000-2001 DOLLARS $313 $300 $287 $275 J A S O N D J F M A M J Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June $312.66 308.10 312.65 314.62 322.11 323.52 319.31 315.27 310.50 317.12 306.11 306.64 $310.12 313.05 310.49 311.93 312.16 308.00 299.85 297.14 298.64 288.61 294.71 298.29 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2001 7 Georgia Economic Indicators Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled* 24.5 1999-2000 2000-2001 20.2 THOUSANDS 15.9 11.6 7.3 3.0 J A S O N D J F M A M J * Jobs listed with the Georgia Department of Labor Initial Unemployment Claims 74.8 1999-2000 2000-2001 62.0 THOUSANDS 49.2 36.4 23.6 10.9 J A S O N D J F M A M J Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June 1999-2000 16,182 17,257 17,162 16,894 17,741 18,997 16,116 18,335 19,359 18,446 17,760 15,990 2000-2001 16,354 15,881 14,124 13,640 12,566 11,507 10,951 11,955 11,596 10,661 9,448 7,826 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June 1999-2000 31,190 31,429 29,589 27,653 28,483 32,536 30,852 27,421 26,430 25,740 28,821 29,186 2000-2001 31,422 34,375 34,313 38,271 45,620 43,776 50,354 45,517 45,582 52,459 60,285 50,442 Continued Unemployment Claims 327.3 1999-2000 2000-2001 274.7 THOUSANDS 222.2 169.6 117.1 64.5 J A S O N D J F M A M J 8 Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2001 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June 1999-2000 128,964 162,340 132,319 139,033 154,977 138,052 153,719 134,472 122,763 131,083 148,971 135,417 2000-2001 151,092 152,030 147,905 184,770 164,381 167,498 211,150 195,343 182,949 264,655 239,858 246,537 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate * 5.1 1999-2000 2000-2001 4.5 PERCENTAGES 4.0 3.4 2.9 2.4 J A S O N D J F M A M J * Not Seasonally Adjusted Insured Unemployment Rate 1.89 1999-2000 2000-2001 1.61 PERCENTAGES 1.34 1.06 0.78 0.51 J A S O N D J F M A M J Monthly Data Not Seasonally Adjusted Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay June 1999-2000 4.3 % 4.1 4.2 4.1 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.8 3.9 3.5 3.7 4.4 2000-2001 4.1 % 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.2 3.0 3.3 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.5 4.1 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay June 1999-2000 0.93 % 0.93 0.90 0.88 0.88 0.85 0.87 0.83 0.83 0.85 0.85 0.89 2000-2001 0.92 % 0.97 0.94 0.95 1.04 1.21 1.18 1.18 1.28 1.33 1.51 1.58 New Motor Vehicle Sales 68 1999-2000 2000-2001 60 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month 1999-2000 2000-2001 THOUSANDS 51 43 35 27 J A S O N D J F M A M J Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay June 42,573 46,239 42,194 43,629 58,133 48,037 52,718 54,602 55,190 50,779 52,123 44,609 43,177 54,003 45,653 45,177 44,090 36,195 56,975 44,725 48,624 47,789 50,078 42,210 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2001 9 Georgia Economic Indicators Residential Construction 9,934 1999-2000 2000-2001 9,157 HOUSEHOLD UNITS 8,381 7,604 6,828 6,051 J A S O N D J F M A M J Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June 1999-2000 7,155 7,489 7,323 7,288 8,622 7,203 8,031 8,125 8,262 7,941 8,084 7,732 2000-2001 7,965 7,186 7,441 7,157 7,210 6,920 8,628 8,054 7,287 7,784 8,310 9,005 Nonresidential Construction $1004 1999-2000 2000-2001 $833 $663 MILLIONS $493 $323 $152 J A S O N D J F M A M J Deflated Nonresidential Construction $875 1999-2000 2000-2001 $727 $580 MILLIONS $433 $285 $138 J A S O N D J F M A M J 10 Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2001 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June 1999-2000 $572,688,000 539,049,000 474,775,000 365,637,000 431,639,000 724,342,000 480,575,000 391,992,000 555,717,000 789,116,000 548,667,000 654,704,000 2000-2001 $426,077,000 393,006,000 586,325,000 519,280,000 365,900,000 469,039,000 559,265,000 438,065,000 442,190,000 619,469,000 401,734,000 495,771,000 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay June 1999-2000 $517,801,100 486,506,300 428,110,900 328,219,900 385,736,400 645,006,200 426,041,700 346,588,900 490,482,800 692,814,700 480,444,000 571,793,900 2000-2001 $370,824,200 341,744,300 508,080,600 448,815,900 314,617,400 401,918,600 477,596,100 373,138,800 375,373,500 524,973,700 337,875,500 415,218,600 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators New Business Corporations* 5,679 1999-2000 2000-2001 5,251 CHARTERS 4,822 4,393 3,965 3,536 J A S O N D J F M A M J * Includes limited liability companies Total State Revenues $1,683 1999-2000 2000-2001 $1,482 $1,281 MILLIONS $1,080 $879 $679 J J A S O N D J F M A J Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Ap r M ay June 1999-2000 4,334 4,316 4,622 4,049 4,427 4,762 4,731 4,588 4,696 4,296 5,172 4,652 2000-2001 4,203 5,098 4,274 4,566 4,779 4,381 4,880 4,498 5,033 4,745 4,617 4,686 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay June 1999-2000 2000-2001 $1,013,915,000 1,152,734,000 956,358,000 1,082,132,000 1,104,184,000 1,046,748,000 1,150,812,000 1,025,035,000 1,002,041,000 1,054,124,000 1,364,711,000 1,067,272,000 $1,133,065,000 1,177,333,000 1,111,664,000 1,227,641,000 1,146,891,000 1,107,590,000 1,358,146,000 1,084,760,000 919,280,000 964,287,000 1,446,688,000 1,272,264,000 Deflated Total State Revenues $940 1999-2000 2000-2001 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted MILLIONS $832 $723 $614 $505 $397 J A S O N D J F M A M J Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay June 1999-2000 $608,227,400 689,846,800 569,599,800 643,360,300 656,080,800 621,953,700 682,164,800 604,027,700 585,646,400 615,726,600 796,678,900 619,426,600 2000-2001 $656,468,700 681,327,000 639,990,800 705,540,800 658,754,200 636,546,000 775,640,200 617,042,100 521,725,300 545,102,900 814,118,200 714,755,100 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2001 11 To receive a free subscription to this publication, please complete and mail this form Mail to: If you prefer, you may e-mail your 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