Georgia economic indicators, monthly report [Vol. 7, no. 5 (July 2001)]

GEORGIA

Economic

Indicators

A Monthly Report of Georgia State Labor Market and Economic Trends

July 2001

Volume 7, Issue 5

Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner

Georgia Economic Indicators
Monthly Report May 2001 Data Volume 7, Issue 5 July 2001
Cover art: Dillard House, Dillard, Georgia - Huey J. Theus, Mableton, Georgia

Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177.
Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us

Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner

Equal Opportunity Employer/Programs - Auxiliary Aids and Services Available Upon Request to Individuals With Disabilities

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2001 1

Introduction

G eorgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is designed to provide in a single publication data on a
number of indicators used to measure movement of the state's economy.
The indicators have been collected and disseminated for many years by state and federal governments and private agencies, but not under a single cover. Contributing agencies include Georgia's Department of Labor, Department of Revenue and Office of Secretary of State, the U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the F.W. Dodge Company.
All data except those contained in the U.S. Consumer Price Index chart on Page 3 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data that have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars.
Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually in February.
The purpose of the publications is to serve the business and professional communities, economic developers, economists, educators and others who have need for information on state economic trends.
Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report and Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Bill Webb, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177.

Data Sources

Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Employment, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Retail Employment, Manufacturing Employment and Manufacturing Workweek -- Georgia Department of Labor
New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue
New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State
Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce
Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group
* Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center

2 Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2001

Georgia Department of Labor

Consumer Price Index

YEAR 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

JAN
62.5 68.3 77.8 87.0 94.3 97.8 101.9 105.5 109.6 111.2 115.7 121.1 127.4 134.6 138.1 142.6 146.2 150.3 154.4 159.1 161.6 164.3 168.7 175.1

FEB
62.9 69.1 78.9 87.9 94.6 97.9 102.4 106.0 109.3 111.6 116.0 121.6 128.0 134.8 138.6 143.1 146.7 150.9 154.9 159.6 161.9 164.5 169.7 175.8

MAR
63.4 69.8 80.1 88.5 94.5 97.9 102.6 106.4 108.8 112.1 116.5 122.3 128.7 135.0 139.3 143.6 147.2 151.4 155.7 160.0 162.2 165.0 171.1 176.2

APR MAY
63.9 64.5 70.6 71.5 81.0 81.8 89.1 89.8 94.9 95.8 98.6 99.2 103.1 103.4 106.9 107.3 108.6 108.9 112.7 113.1 117.1 117.5 123.1 123.8 128.9 129.2 135.2 135.6 139.5 139.7 144.0 144.2 147.4 147.5 151.9 152.2 156.3 156.6 160.2 160.1 162.5 162.8 166.2 166.2 171.2 171.3 176.9 177.7

JUN
65.2 72.3 82.7 90.6 97.0 99.5 103.7 107.6 109.5 113.5 118.0 124.1 129.9 136.0 140.2 144.4 148.0 152.5 156.7 160.3 163.0 166.2 172.3

JUL
65.7 73.1 82.7 91.6 97.5 99.9 104.1 107.0 109.5 113.8 118.5 124.4 130.4 136.2 140.5 144.4 148.4 152.5 157.0 160.5 163.2 166.7 172.6

AUG
66.0 73.8 88.3 92.3 97.7 100.2 104.5 108.0 109.7 114.4 119.0 124.6 131.6 136.6 140.9 144.8 149.0 152.9 157.3 160.8 163.4 167.1 172.8

SEP
66.5 74.6 84.0 93.2 97.9 100.7 105.0 108.3 110.2 115.0 119.8 125.0 132.7 137.2 141.3 145.1 149.4 153.2 157.8 161.2 163.6 167.9 173.7

OCT
67.1 75.2 84.8 93.4 98.2 101.0 105.3 108.7 110.3 115.3 120.2 125.0 133.5 137.4 141.9 145.7 149.5 153.7 158.3 161.6 164.0 168.2 174.0

Chart is not seasonally adjusted

NOV
67.4 75.9 85.5 93.7 98.0 101.2 105.3 109.0 110.4 115.4 120.3 125.9 133.8 137.8 142.0 145.8 149.7 153.6 158.6 161.5 164.0 168.3 174.1

DEC
67.7 76.7 86.3 94.0 97.6 101.3 105.3 109.3 110.5 115.4 120.5 126.1 133.8 137.9 141.9 145.8 149.7 153.5 158.6 161.3 163.9 168.3 174.0

AVG
65.2 72.6 82.4 90.9 96.5 99.6 103.9 107.6 109.6 113.6 118.3 124.0 130.7 136.2 140.3 144.5 148.2 152.4 156.9 160.5 163.0 166.6 172.1

CPI RATE
9.0% 13.3% 12.5% 8.9% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 1.1% 4.4% 4.4% 4.6% 6.1% 3.1% 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 3.3% 1.7% 1.6% 2.7% 3.4%

U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS
Consumer Price Index Increased 0.5 Percent in May

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent in May, before seasonal adjustment, to a level of 177.7 (198284=100), as recently reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. For the 12-month period ended in May, the CPI-U increased 3.6 percent.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) rose 0.5 percent in May, prior to seasonal adjustment. The May level of 174.4 was 3.7 percent higher than the index in May 2000.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U rose 0.4 percent in May, following a 0.3 percent increase in April. The energy index, which increased 1.8 percent in April, rose 3.1 percent in May, accounting for about two-thirds of the overall May CPI advance.
Excluding food and energy, the CPIU rose 0.1 percent, its smallest monthly increase since December 2000. Declines in the indexes for tobacco and smoking products and for recreation more than offset a larger increase in shelter costs
Georgia Department of Labor

The Formula

Following is the formula for figuring Consumer Price Index percentage changes from one point in time to another.

Index point change

CPI Less previous index Equals index point change

112.5 108.5
4.0

Percent change

Index point difference

4.0

Divided by the previous index

108.5

Equals

0.037

Results multiplied by 100

0.037 x 100

Equals percent change

3.7%

and a smaller decline in apparel prices, accounting for the smaller advance in May than April.
During the first five months of 2001, the CPI-U rose at a 4.0 percent seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). This compares with an increase of 3.4 percent for all of 2000. The index for energy, which registered double-digit increases in both 1999 and 2000,

continued this pattern during the first five months of 2001, increasing at a 16.3 percent SAAR.
Food costs, which rose 2.8 percent in all of 2000, have increased at a 3.4 percent SAAR thus far in 2001. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U has advanced at a 2.9 percent SAAR thus far in 2001, compared with a 2.6 percent rise for all of 2000. Acceleration in the indexes for shelter, for medical care, and for tobacco and smoking products have contributed to the larger rate of advance thus far this year.
The housing index rose 0.4 percent in May, following a 0.1 percent rise in April. The index for apparel, which declined 1.3 percent in April, fell 0.9 percent in May. Medical care costs rose 0.3 percent in May to a level 4.6 percent higher than a year ago. In May, the index for medical care commodities increased 0.4 percent along with medical care services which rose 0.3 percent. Charges for professional services and for hospital and related services increased 0.1 and 0.7 percent, respectively.

Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2001 3

Georgia Index of Economic Indicators

197.7

Leading indicators Coincident indicators

173.0

148.3

123.7

99.0
1987-88 = 100

74.4

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

Georgia's Economic Indicators show upward movement

Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted.

***
The Georgia Department of Labor's Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.2 percent in May to 165.8 from a revised 165.4, after seasonal adjustment. The index has grown 0.9 percent since June 2000.
The construction sector was mixed in May, building permits for residential construction were up 6.8 percent, while nonresidential construction spending decreased 36 percent. Sales of new motor vehicles increased 4.8 percent in May.
The Index of Coincident Indicators moved upward, increasing 2.2 percent to 164.9 from a revised 161.3 the previous month. Increased state revenue

Recent 12 Months
Leading Coincident
167.4

165.0

162.5

160.1 157.6

1987-88 =100

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The Leading Index reflects activity that will impact the economy for a duration of three to six months into the future. Coincident indicators measure current conditions.

4 Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2001

collections led the way among the coincident indicators. State revenues increased 50 percent in May, after seasonal adjustment.
Total nonagricultural employment was down 0.09 percent in May. The employment figures for May declined 0.28 percent in manufacturing and increased 0.17 percent in retail employment. Manufacturing earnings and hours worked increased during the month. Weekly earnings for the period were up 2.3 percent, after being seasonally adjusted. The average number of weekly hours worked also increased 1.8 percent.
Georgia Department of Labor

Data Summary

May 2001

Georgia Economic Indicators
Seasonally Adjusted

May 2001

Apr 2001

May 2000

Percent Percent

Change Change

Apr 2001 May 2000

to

to

May 2001 May 2001

Nonagricultural Employment

4,049,040

4,052,785

3,988,045

Retail Employment

735,982

734,736

720,877

Manufacturing Employment

571,622

573,204

588,422

Manufacturing Workweek

39.8

39.1

40.6

Weekly Manufacturing Earnings

$522.51

$510.55

$524.37

Deflated Manufacturing Earnings

$294.04

$288.61

$306.11

Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled

9,448

10,661

17,760

Initial Unemployment Claims

60,285

52,459

28,821

Continued Unemployment Claims

239,858

264,655

148,971

Unemployment Rate ( not seasonaaly adjusted)

3.5%

3.6%

3.7%

Insured Unemployment Rate

1.51%

1.33%

0.85%

New Motor Vehicle Sales

50,078

47,789

52,123

Residential Construction (building permits)

8,310

7,784

8,084

Nonresidential Construction (dollar value) $401,734,000 $619,469,000 $548,667,000

Deflated Nonresidential Construction

$337,875,500 $524,973,700 $480,444,000

New Business Corporations

4,617

4,745

5,172

Total State Revenues

$1,446,688,000 $964,287,000 $1,364,711,000

Deflated Total State Revenues

$814,118,200 $545,102,900 $796,678,900

-0.09 0.17 -0.28 1.75 2.34 1.88 -11.37 14.92 -9.37
4.79 6.76 -35.15 -35.64 -2.70 50.03 49.35

1.53 2.10 -2.86 -1.99 -0.35 -3.94 -46.80 109.17 61.01
-3.92 2.79 -26.78 -29.67 -10.72 6.01 2.19

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2001 5

Georgia Economic Indicators
Nonagricultural Employment
4.12 1999-2000 2000-2001
4.06

MILLIONS

3.99

3.93

3.87

3.81

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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay

1999-2000
3,899,057 3,880,265 3,895,893 3,911,070 3,921,579 3,925,393 3,938,858 3,939,391 3,959,134 3,977,154 3,970,172 3,988,045

2000-2001
3,993,871 4,005,404 4,007,558 4,009,019 4,020,945 4,030,439 4,024,427 4,040,180 4,045,042 4,041,867 4,052,785 4,049,040

Retail Employment

752.2

1999-2000

2000-2001

739.2

726.3

THOUSANDS

713.3

700.4

687.4

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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay

1999-2000
706,425 703,688 707,831 706,692 709,943 715,004 722,770 709,013 715,823 719,353 720,379 720,877

2000-2001
721,421 723,043 721,309 718,769 726,337 733,610 735,734 732,765 731,550 734,253 734,736 735,982

Manufacturing Employment

615

1999-2000

2000-2001

603

592

THOUSANDS

580

569

557

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6 Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2001

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

1999-2000
599,103 600,461 596,282 596,144 594,288 593,718 595,486 590,229 591,515 590,915 589,013 588,422

2000-2001
587,924 589,020 585,594 585,806 585,901 581,835 582,143 576,177 579,216 574,610 573,204 571,622

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators

Manufacturing Workweek

43.8

1999-2000

2000-2001

42.6

HOURS

41.4

40.1

38.9

37.7

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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

1999-2000
42.0 41.8 41.2 41.2 41.7 42.2 42.4 42.0 41.6 41.3 41.9 40.6

2000-2001
41.0 41.2 41.4 41.0 41.3 40.9 40.8 40.7 40.0 40.3 39.1 39.8

Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings

$561

1999-2000

2000-2001

$547

DOLLARS

$534

$521

$507

$494

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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

1999-2000
$522.68 521.20 514.84 524.94 529.19 542.12 544.48 538.67 535.01 531.27 542.91 524.37

2000-2001
$528.35 535.27 540.94 539.33 542.76 543.47 535.92 525.05 522.38 526.21 510.55 522.51

Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings

$338 $325

1999-2000

2000-2001

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month 1999-2000

2000-2001

DOLLARS

$313

$300

$287

$275

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Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

$314.49 312.66 308.10 312.65 314.62 322.11 323.52 319.31 315.27 310.50 317.12 306.11

$306.64 310.12 313.05 310.49 311.93 312.16 308.00 299.85 297.14 298.64 288.61 294.04

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2001 7

Georgia Economic Indicators

Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled*

23.6

1999-2000

2000-2001

20.0

THOUSANDS

16.3

12.6

8.9

5.3

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* Jobs listed with the Georgia Department of Labor

Initial Unemployment Claims

74.8

1999-2000

2000-2001

62.0

THOUSANDS

49.2

36.4

23.6

10.9

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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

1999-2000
14,848 16,182 17,257 17,162 16,894 17,741 18,997 16,116 18,335 19,359 18,446 17,760

2000-2001
15,990 16,354 15,881 14,124 13,640 12,566 11,507 10,951 11,955 11,596 10,661 9,448

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jun Jul Aug Sep
Oct Nov
Dec Jan Feb Mar
Apr
May

1999-2000
28,799 31,190 31,429 29,589
27,653 28,483
32,536 30,852 27,421 26,430
25,740
28,821

2000-2001
29,186 31,422 34,375 34,313
38,271 45,620
43,776 50,354 45,517 45,582
52,459
60,285

Continued Unemployment Claims

327.3

1999-2000

2000-2001

274.7

THOUSANDS

222.2

169.6

117.1

64.5

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8 Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2001

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jun Jul Aug Sep
Oct Nov
Dec
Jan Feb Mar
Apr
May

1999-2000
156,918 128,964 162,340 132,319
139,033 154,977
138,052
153,719 134,472 122,763
131,083
148,971

2000-2001
135,417 151,092 152,030 147,905
184,770 164,381
167,498
211,150 195,343 182,949
264,655
239,858

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate *

5.2

1999-2000

2000-2001

4.6

PERCENTAGES

4.0

3.5

2.9

2.4

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* Not Seasonally Adjusted

Insured Unemployment Rate

1.81

1999-2000

2000-2001

1.56

PERCENTAGES

1.31

1.06

0.81

0.56

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Monthly Data
Not Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay

1999-2000
4.5 % 4.3 4.1 4.2 4.1 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.8 3.9 3.5 3.7

2000-2001
4.4 % 4.1 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.2 3.0 3.3 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.5

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay

1999-2000
0.88 % 0.93 0.93 0.90 0.88 0.88 0.85 0.87 0.83 0.83 0.85 0.85

2000-2001
0.89 % 0.92 0.97 0.94 0.95 1.04 1.21 1.18 1.18 1.28 1.33 1.51

New Motor Vehicle Sales

68

1999-2000

2000-2001

60

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month

1999-2000

2000-2001

THOUSANDS

51

43

35

27

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Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay

52,760 42,573 46,239 42,194 43,629 58,133 48,037 52,718 54,602 55,190 50,779 52,123

44,609 43,177 54,003 45,653 45,177 44,090 36,195 56,975 44,725 48,624 47,789 50,078

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2001 9

Georgia Economic Indicators

Residential Construction

9,779

1999-2000

2000-2001

9,001

HOUSEHOLD UNITS

8,223

7,445

6,667

5,889

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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

1999-2000
8,793 7,155 7,489 7,323 7,288 8,622 7,203 8,031 8,125 8,262 7,941 8,084

2000-2001
7,732 7,965 7,186 7,441 7,157 7,210 6,920 8,628 8,054 7,287 7,784 8,310

Nonresidential Construction

$1005

1999-2000

2000-2001

$834

$664

MILLIONS

$493

$323

$152

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Deflated Nonresidential Construction

$875

1999-2000

2000-2001

$727

$580

MILLIONS

$433

$285

$138

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10 Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2001

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

1999-2000
$545,301,000 572,688,000 539,049,000 474,775,000 365,637,000 431,639,000 724,342,000 480,575,000 391,992,000 555,717,000 789,116,000 548,667,000

2000-2001
$654,704,000 426,077,000 393,006,000 586,325,000 519,280,000 365,900,000 469,039,000 559,265,000 438,065,000 442,190,000 619,469,000 401,734,000

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay

1999-2000
$493,932,100 517,801,100 486,506,300 428,110,900 328,219,900 385,736,400 645,006,200 426,041,700 346,588,900 490,482,800 692,814,700 480,444,000

2000-2001
$571,793,900 370,824,200 341,744,300 508,080,600 448,815,900 314,617,400 401,918,600 477,596,100 373,138,800 375,373,500 524,973,700 337,875,500

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators

New Business Corporations*

5,611

1999-2000

2000-2001

5,196

CHARTERS

4,781

4,366

3,951

3,536

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* Includes limited liability companies

Total State Revenues

$1,683

1999-2000

2000-2001

$1,482

$1,281

MILLIONS

$1,080

$879

$679

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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Ap r M ay

1999-2000
4,318 4,334 4,316 4,622 4,049 4,427 4,762 4,731 4,588 4,696 4,296 5,172

2000-2001
4,652 4,203 5,098 4,274 4,566 4,779 4,381 4,880 4,498 5,033 4,745 4,617

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay

1999-2000

2000-2001

$1,020,119,000 1,013,915,000 1,152,734,000
956,358,000 1,082,132,000 1,104,184,000 1,046,748,000 1,150,812,000 1,025,035,000 1,002,041,000 1,054,124,000 1,364,711,000

$1,067,272,000 1,133,065,000 1,177,333,000 1,111,664,000 1,227,641,000 1,146,891,000 1,107,590,000 1,358,146,000 1,084,760,000
919,280,000 964,287,000 1,446,688,000

Deflated Total State Revenues

$940

1999-2000

2000-2001

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

MILLIONS

$832

$723

$614

$505

$397

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Month
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay

1999-2000
$613,790,000 608,227,400 689,846,800 569,599,800 643,360,300 656,080,800 621,953,700 682,164,800 604,027,700 585,646,400 615,726,600 796,678,900

2000-2001
$619,426,600 656,468,700 681,327,000 639,990,800 705,540,800 658,754,200 636,546,000 775,640,200 617,042,100 521,725,300 545,102,900 814,118,200

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2001 11

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