GEORGIA Economic Indicators A Monthly Report of Georgia State Labor Market and Economic Trends July 2001 Volume 7, Issue 5 Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner Georgia Economic Indicators Monthly Report May 2001 Data Volume 7, Issue 5 July 2001 Cover art: Dillard House, Dillard, Georgia - Huey J. Theus, Mableton, Georgia Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177. Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner Equal Opportunity Employer/Programs - Auxiliary Aids and Services Available Upon Request to Individuals With Disabilities Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2001 1 Introduction G eorgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is designed to provide in a single publication data on a number of indicators used to measure movement of the state's economy. The indicators have been collected and disseminated for many years by state and federal governments and private agencies, but not under a single cover. Contributing agencies include Georgia's Department of Labor, Department of Revenue and Office of Secretary of State, the U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the F.W. Dodge Company. All data except those contained in the U.S. Consumer Price Index chart on Page 3 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data that have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars. Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually in February. The purpose of the publications is to serve the business and professional communities, economic developers, economists, educators and others who have need for information on state economic trends. Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report and Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Bill Webb, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177. Data Sources Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Employment, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Retail Employment, Manufacturing Employment and Manufacturing Workweek -- Georgia Department of Labor New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group * Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center 2 Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2001 Georgia Department of Labor Consumer Price Index YEAR 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 JAN 62.5 68.3 77.8 87.0 94.3 97.8 101.9 105.5 109.6 111.2 115.7 121.1 127.4 134.6 138.1 142.6 146.2 150.3 154.4 159.1 161.6 164.3 168.7 175.1 FEB 62.9 69.1 78.9 87.9 94.6 97.9 102.4 106.0 109.3 111.6 116.0 121.6 128.0 134.8 138.6 143.1 146.7 150.9 154.9 159.6 161.9 164.5 169.7 175.8 MAR 63.4 69.8 80.1 88.5 94.5 97.9 102.6 106.4 108.8 112.1 116.5 122.3 128.7 135.0 139.3 143.6 147.2 151.4 155.7 160.0 162.2 165.0 171.1 176.2 APR MAY 63.9 64.5 70.6 71.5 81.0 81.8 89.1 89.8 94.9 95.8 98.6 99.2 103.1 103.4 106.9 107.3 108.6 108.9 112.7 113.1 117.1 117.5 123.1 123.8 128.9 129.2 135.2 135.6 139.5 139.7 144.0 144.2 147.4 147.5 151.9 152.2 156.3 156.6 160.2 160.1 162.5 162.8 166.2 166.2 171.2 171.3 176.9 177.7 JUN 65.2 72.3 82.7 90.6 97.0 99.5 103.7 107.6 109.5 113.5 118.0 124.1 129.9 136.0 140.2 144.4 148.0 152.5 156.7 160.3 163.0 166.2 172.3 JUL 65.7 73.1 82.7 91.6 97.5 99.9 104.1 107.0 109.5 113.8 118.5 124.4 130.4 136.2 140.5 144.4 148.4 152.5 157.0 160.5 163.2 166.7 172.6 AUG 66.0 73.8 88.3 92.3 97.7 100.2 104.5 108.0 109.7 114.4 119.0 124.6 131.6 136.6 140.9 144.8 149.0 152.9 157.3 160.8 163.4 167.1 172.8 SEP 66.5 74.6 84.0 93.2 97.9 100.7 105.0 108.3 110.2 115.0 119.8 125.0 132.7 137.2 141.3 145.1 149.4 153.2 157.8 161.2 163.6 167.9 173.7 OCT 67.1 75.2 84.8 93.4 98.2 101.0 105.3 108.7 110.3 115.3 120.2 125.0 133.5 137.4 141.9 145.7 149.5 153.7 158.3 161.6 164.0 168.2 174.0 Chart is not seasonally adjusted NOV 67.4 75.9 85.5 93.7 98.0 101.2 105.3 109.0 110.4 115.4 120.3 125.9 133.8 137.8 142.0 145.8 149.7 153.6 158.6 161.5 164.0 168.3 174.1 DEC 67.7 76.7 86.3 94.0 97.6 101.3 105.3 109.3 110.5 115.4 120.5 126.1 133.8 137.9 141.9 145.8 149.7 153.5 158.6 161.3 163.9 168.3 174.0 AVG 65.2 72.6 82.4 90.9 96.5 99.6 103.9 107.6 109.6 113.6 118.3 124.0 130.7 136.2 140.3 144.5 148.2 152.4 156.9 160.5 163.0 166.6 172.1 CPI RATE 9.0% 13.3% 12.5% 8.9% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 1.1% 4.4% 4.4% 4.6% 6.1% 3.1% 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 3.3% 1.7% 1.6% 2.7% 3.4% U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS Consumer Price Index Increased 0.5 Percent in May The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent in May, before seasonal adjustment, to a level of 177.7 (198284=100), as recently reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. For the 12-month period ended in May, the CPI-U increased 3.6 percent. The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) rose 0.5 percent in May, prior to seasonal adjustment. The May level of 174.4 was 3.7 percent higher than the index in May 2000. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U rose 0.4 percent in May, following a 0.3 percent increase in April. The energy index, which increased 1.8 percent in April, rose 3.1 percent in May, accounting for about two-thirds of the overall May CPI advance. Excluding food and energy, the CPIU rose 0.1 percent, its smallest monthly increase since December 2000. Declines in the indexes for tobacco and smoking products and for recreation more than offset a larger increase in shelter costs Georgia Department of Labor The Formula Following is the formula for figuring Consumer Price Index percentage changes from one point in time to another. Index point change CPI Less previous index Equals index point change 112.5 108.5 4.0 Percent change Index point difference 4.0 Divided by the previous index 108.5 Equals 0.037 Results multiplied by 100 0.037 x 100 Equals percent change 3.7% and a smaller decline in apparel prices, accounting for the smaller advance in May than April. During the first five months of 2001, the CPI-U rose at a 4.0 percent seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). This compares with an increase of 3.4 percent for all of 2000. The index for energy, which registered double-digit increases in both 1999 and 2000, continued this pattern during the first five months of 2001, increasing at a 16.3 percent SAAR. Food costs, which rose 2.8 percent in all of 2000, have increased at a 3.4 percent SAAR thus far in 2001. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U has advanced at a 2.9 percent SAAR thus far in 2001, compared with a 2.6 percent rise for all of 2000. Acceleration in the indexes for shelter, for medical care, and for tobacco and smoking products have contributed to the larger rate of advance thus far this year. The housing index rose 0.4 percent in May, following a 0.1 percent rise in April. The index for apparel, which declined 1.3 percent in April, fell 0.9 percent in May. Medical care costs rose 0.3 percent in May to a level 4.6 percent higher than a year ago. In May, the index for medical care commodities increased 0.4 percent along with medical care services which rose 0.3 percent. Charges for professional services and for hospital and related services increased 0.1 and 0.7 percent, respectively. Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2001 3 Georgia Index of Economic Indicators 197.7 Leading indicators Coincident indicators 173.0 148.3 123.7 99.0 1987-88 = 100 74.4 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 Georgia's Economic Indicators show upward movement Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted. *** The Georgia Department of Labor's Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.2 percent in May to 165.8 from a revised 165.4, after seasonal adjustment. The index has grown 0.9 percent since June 2000. The construction sector was mixed in May, building permits for residential construction were up 6.8 percent, while nonresidential construction spending decreased 36 percent. Sales of new motor vehicles increased 4.8 percent in May. The Index of Coincident Indicators moved upward, increasing 2.2 percent to 164.9 from a revised 161.3 the previous month. Increased state revenue Recent 12 Months Leading Coincident 167.4 165.0 162.5 160.1 157.6 1987-88 =100 J J A S O N D J F M A M The Leading Index reflects activity that will impact the economy for a duration of three to six months into the future. Coincident indicators measure current conditions. 4 Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2001 collections led the way among the coincident indicators. State revenues increased 50 percent in May, after seasonal adjustment. Total nonagricultural employment was down 0.09 percent in May. The employment figures for May declined 0.28 percent in manufacturing and increased 0.17 percent in retail employment. Manufacturing earnings and hours worked increased during the month. Weekly earnings for the period were up 2.3 percent, after being seasonally adjusted. The average number of weekly hours worked also increased 1.8 percent. Georgia Department of Labor Data Summary May 2001 Georgia Economic Indicators Seasonally Adjusted May 2001 Apr 2001 May 2000 Percent Percent Change Change Apr 2001 May 2000 to to May 2001 May 2001 Nonagricultural Employment 4,049,040 4,052,785 3,988,045 Retail Employment 735,982 734,736 720,877 Manufacturing Employment 571,622 573,204 588,422 Manufacturing Workweek 39.8 39.1 40.6 Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $522.51 $510.55 $524.37 Deflated Manufacturing Earnings $294.04 $288.61 $306.11 Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled 9,448 10,661 17,760 Initial Unemployment Claims 60,285 52,459 28,821 Continued Unemployment Claims 239,858 264,655 148,971 Unemployment Rate ( not seasonaaly adjusted) 3.5% 3.6% 3.7% Insured Unemployment Rate 1.51% 1.33% 0.85% New Motor Vehicle Sales 50,078 47,789 52,123 Residential Construction (building permits) 8,310 7,784 8,084 Nonresidential Construction (dollar value) $401,734,000 $619,469,000 $548,667,000 Deflated Nonresidential Construction $337,875,500 $524,973,700 $480,444,000 New Business Corporations 4,617 4,745 5,172 Total State Revenues $1,446,688,000 $964,287,000 $1,364,711,000 Deflated Total State Revenues $814,118,200 $545,102,900 $796,678,900 -0.09 0.17 -0.28 1.75 2.34 1.88 -11.37 14.92 -9.37 4.79 6.76 -35.15 -35.64 -2.70 50.03 49.35 1.53 2.10 -2.86 -1.99 -0.35 -3.94 -46.80 109.17 61.01 -3.92 2.79 -26.78 -29.67 -10.72 6.01 2.19 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2001 5 Georgia Economic Indicators Nonagricultural Employment 4.12 1999-2000 2000-2001 4.06 MILLIONS 3.99 3.93 3.87 3.81 J J A S O N D J F M A M Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay 1999-2000 3,899,057 3,880,265 3,895,893 3,911,070 3,921,579 3,925,393 3,938,858 3,939,391 3,959,134 3,977,154 3,970,172 3,988,045 2000-2001 3,993,871 4,005,404 4,007,558 4,009,019 4,020,945 4,030,439 4,024,427 4,040,180 4,045,042 4,041,867 4,052,785 4,049,040 Retail Employment 752.2 1999-2000 2000-2001 739.2 726.3 THOUSANDS 713.3 700.4 687.4 J J A S O N D J F M A M Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay 1999-2000 706,425 703,688 707,831 706,692 709,943 715,004 722,770 709,013 715,823 719,353 720,379 720,877 2000-2001 721,421 723,043 721,309 718,769 726,337 733,610 735,734 732,765 731,550 734,253 734,736 735,982 Manufacturing Employment 615 1999-2000 2000-2001 603 592 THOUSANDS 580 569 557 J J A S O N D J F M A M 6 Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2001 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 1999-2000 599,103 600,461 596,282 596,144 594,288 593,718 595,486 590,229 591,515 590,915 589,013 588,422 2000-2001 587,924 589,020 585,594 585,806 585,901 581,835 582,143 576,177 579,216 574,610 573,204 571,622 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators Manufacturing Workweek 43.8 1999-2000 2000-2001 42.6 HOURS 41.4 40.1 38.9 37.7 J J A S O N D J F M A M Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 1999-2000 42.0 41.8 41.2 41.2 41.7 42.2 42.4 42.0 41.6 41.3 41.9 40.6 2000-2001 41.0 41.2 41.4 41.0 41.3 40.9 40.8 40.7 40.0 40.3 39.1 39.8 Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $561 1999-2000 2000-2001 $547 DOLLARS $534 $521 $507 $494 J J A S O N D J F M A M Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 1999-2000 $522.68 521.20 514.84 524.94 529.19 542.12 544.48 538.67 535.01 531.27 542.91 524.37 2000-2001 $528.35 535.27 540.94 539.33 542.76 543.47 535.92 525.05 522.38 526.21 510.55 522.51 Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $338 $325 1999-2000 2000-2001 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month 1999-2000 2000-2001 DOLLARS $313 $300 $287 $275 J J A S O N D J F M A M Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May $314.49 312.66 308.10 312.65 314.62 322.11 323.52 319.31 315.27 310.50 317.12 306.11 $306.64 310.12 313.05 310.49 311.93 312.16 308.00 299.85 297.14 298.64 288.61 294.04 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2001 7 Georgia Economic Indicators Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled* 23.6 1999-2000 2000-2001 20.0 THOUSANDS 16.3 12.6 8.9 5.3 J J A S O N D J F M A M * Jobs listed with the Georgia Department of Labor Initial Unemployment Claims 74.8 1999-2000 2000-2001 62.0 THOUSANDS 49.2 36.4 23.6 10.9 J J A S O N D J F M A M Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 1999-2000 14,848 16,182 17,257 17,162 16,894 17,741 18,997 16,116 18,335 19,359 18,446 17,760 2000-2001 15,990 16,354 15,881 14,124 13,640 12,566 11,507 10,951 11,955 11,596 10,661 9,448 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 1999-2000 28,799 31,190 31,429 29,589 27,653 28,483 32,536 30,852 27,421 26,430 25,740 28,821 2000-2001 29,186 31,422 34,375 34,313 38,271 45,620 43,776 50,354 45,517 45,582 52,459 60,285 Continued Unemployment Claims 327.3 1999-2000 2000-2001 274.7 THOUSANDS 222.2 169.6 117.1 64.5 J J A S O N D J F M A A 8 Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2001 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 1999-2000 156,918 128,964 162,340 132,319 139,033 154,977 138,052 153,719 134,472 122,763 131,083 148,971 2000-2001 135,417 151,092 152,030 147,905 184,770 164,381 167,498 211,150 195,343 182,949 264,655 239,858 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate * 5.2 1999-2000 2000-2001 4.6 PERCENTAGES 4.0 3.5 2.9 2.4 J J A S O N D J F M A M * Not Seasonally Adjusted Insured Unemployment Rate 1.81 1999-2000 2000-2001 1.56 PERCENTAGES 1.31 1.06 0.81 0.56 J J A S O N D J F M A M Monthly Data Not Seasonally Adjusted Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay 1999-2000 4.5 % 4.3 4.1 4.2 4.1 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.8 3.9 3.5 3.7 2000-2001 4.4 % 4.1 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.2 3.0 3.3 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.5 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay 1999-2000 0.88 % 0.93 0.93 0.90 0.88 0.88 0.85 0.87 0.83 0.83 0.85 0.85 2000-2001 0.89 % 0.92 0.97 0.94 0.95 1.04 1.21 1.18 1.18 1.28 1.33 1.51 New Motor Vehicle Sales 68 1999-2000 2000-2001 60 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month 1999-2000 2000-2001 THOUSANDS 51 43 35 27 J J A S O N D J F M A M Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay 52,760 42,573 46,239 42,194 43,629 58,133 48,037 52,718 54,602 55,190 50,779 52,123 44,609 43,177 54,003 45,653 45,177 44,090 36,195 56,975 44,725 48,624 47,789 50,078 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2001 9 Georgia Economic Indicators Residential Construction 9,779 1999-2000 2000-2001 9,001 HOUSEHOLD UNITS 8,223 7,445 6,667 5,889 J J A S O N D J F M A M Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 1999-2000 8,793 7,155 7,489 7,323 7,288 8,622 7,203 8,031 8,125 8,262 7,941 8,084 2000-2001 7,732 7,965 7,186 7,441 7,157 7,210 6,920 8,628 8,054 7,287 7,784 8,310 Nonresidential Construction $1005 1999-2000 2000-2001 $834 $664 MILLIONS $493 $323 $152 J J A S O N D J F M A M Deflated Nonresidential Construction $875 1999-2000 2000-2001 $727 $580 MILLIONS $433 $285 $138 J J A S O N D J F M A M 10 Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2001 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 1999-2000 $545,301,000 572,688,000 539,049,000 474,775,000 365,637,000 431,639,000 724,342,000 480,575,000 391,992,000 555,717,000 789,116,000 548,667,000 2000-2001 $654,704,000 426,077,000 393,006,000 586,325,000 519,280,000 365,900,000 469,039,000 559,265,000 438,065,000 442,190,000 619,469,000 401,734,000 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay 1999-2000 $493,932,100 517,801,100 486,506,300 428,110,900 328,219,900 385,736,400 645,006,200 426,041,700 346,588,900 490,482,800 692,814,700 480,444,000 2000-2001 $571,793,900 370,824,200 341,744,300 508,080,600 448,815,900 314,617,400 401,918,600 477,596,100 373,138,800 375,373,500 524,973,700 337,875,500 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators New Business Corporations* 5,611 1999-2000 2000-2001 5,196 CHARTERS 4,781 4,366 3,951 3,536 J J A S O N D J F M A M * Includes limited liability companies Total State Revenues $1,683 1999-2000 2000-2001 $1,482 $1,281 MILLIONS $1,080 $879 $679 J J A S O N D J F M A M Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Ap r M ay 1999-2000 4,318 4,334 4,316 4,622 4,049 4,427 4,762 4,731 4,588 4,696 4,296 5,172 2000-2001 4,652 4,203 5,098 4,274 4,566 4,779 4,381 4,880 4,498 5,033 4,745 4,617 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay 1999-2000 2000-2001 $1,020,119,000 1,013,915,000 1,152,734,000 956,358,000 1,082,132,000 1,104,184,000 1,046,748,000 1,150,812,000 1,025,035,000 1,002,041,000 1,054,124,000 1,364,711,000 $1,067,272,000 1,133,065,000 1,177,333,000 1,111,664,000 1,227,641,000 1,146,891,000 1,107,590,000 1,358,146,000 1,084,760,000 919,280,000 964,287,000 1,446,688,000 Deflated Total State Revenues $940 1999-2000 2000-2001 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted MILLIONS $832 $723 $614 $505 $397 J J A S O N D J F M A M Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay 1999-2000 $613,790,000 608,227,400 689,846,800 569,599,800 643,360,300 656,080,800 621,953,700 682,164,800 604,027,700 585,646,400 615,726,600 796,678,900 2000-2001 $619,426,600 656,468,700 681,327,000 639,990,800 705,540,800 658,754,200 636,546,000 775,640,200 617,042,100 521,725,300 545,102,900 814,118,200 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2001 11 To receive a free subscription to this publication, please complete and mail this form Mail to: If you prefer, you may e-mail your request to bill.webb@dol.state.ga.us Bill Webb Workforce Information and Analysis Georgia Department of Labor 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E. 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