GEORGIA
Economic
Indicators
A Monthly Report of Georgia State Labor Market and Economic Trends
.A>HK=HO
Volume 6, Issue 12
Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner
Georgia Economic Indicators
Monthly Report December 2000 Data
Volume 6, Issue 11 February 2001
Cover art: Stephens County Courthouse - Huey J. Theus, Mableton, Georgia
Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 International Boulevard, Atlanta, Georgia 303031751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177.
Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us
Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner
Equal Opportunity Employer/Programs - Auxiliary Aids and Services Available Upon Request to Individuals With Disabilities
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators / February 2001 1
Introduction
G eorgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is designed to provide in a single publication data on a
number of indicators used to measure movement of the state's economy.
The indicators have been collected and disseminated for many years by state and federal governments and private agencies, but not under a single cover. Contributing agencies include Georgia's Department of Labor, Department of Revenue and Office of Secretary of State, the U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the F.W. Dodge Company.
All data except those contained in the U.S. Consumer Price Index chart on Page 3 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data which have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars.
Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually in February.
The purpose of the publications is to serve the business and professional communities, economic developers, economists, educators and others who have need for information on state economic trends.
Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report and Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Stephen Matta, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 International Boulevard, Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177.
Data Sources
Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Employment, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Retail Employment, Manufacturing Employment and Manufacturing Workweek -- Georgia Department of Labor
Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate and United States Labor Force Estimates -- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue
New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State
Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce
Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group
* Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center
2 Georgia Economic Indicators / February 2001
Georgia Department of Labor
Consumer Price Index
YEAR 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
JAN
58.5 62.5 68.3 77.8 87.0 94.3 97.8 101.9 105.5 109.6 111.2 115.7 121.1 127.4 134.6 138.1 142.6 146.2 150.3 154.4 159.1 161.6 164.3 168.7
FEB
59.1 62.9 69.1 78.9 87.9 94.6 97.9 102.4 106.0 109.3 111.6 116.0 121.6 128.0 134.8 138.6 143.1 146.7 150.9 154.9 159.6 161.9 164.5 169.7
MAR
59.5 63.4 69.8 80.1 88.5 94.5 97.9 102.6 106.4 108.8 112.1 116.5 122.3 128.7 135.0 139.3 143.6 147.2 151.4 155.7 160.0 162.2 165.0 171.1
APR MAY
60.0 60.3 63.9 64.5 70.6 71.5 81.0 81.8 89.1 89.8 94.9 95.8 98.6 99.2 103.1 103.4 106.9 107.3 108.6 108.9 112.7 113.1 117.1 117.5 123.1 123.8 128.9 129.2 135.2 135.6 139.5 139.7 144.0 144.2 147.4 147.5 151.9 152.2 156.3 156.6 160.2 160.1 162.5 162.8 166.2 166.2 171.2 171.3
JUN
60.7 65.2 72.3 82.7 90.6 97.0 99.5 103.7 107.6 109.5 113.5 118.0 124.1 129.9 136.0 140.2 144.4 148.0 152.5 156.7 160.3 163.0 166.2 172.3
JUL
61.0 65.7 73.1 82.7 91.6 97.5 99.9 104.1 107.0 109.5 113.8 118.5 124.4 130.4 136.2 140.5 144.4 148.4 152.5 157.0 160.5 163.2 166.7 172.6
AUG
61.2 66.0 73.8 88.3 92.3 97.7 100.2 104.5 108.0 109.7 114.4 119.0 124.6 131.6 136.6 140.9 144.8 149.0 152.9 157.3 160.8 163.4 167.1 172.8
SEP
61.4 66.5 74.6 84.0 93.2 97.9 100.7 105.0 108.3 110.2 115.0 119.8 125.0 132.7 137.2 141.3 145.1 149.4 153.2 157.8 161.2 163.6 167.9 173.7
OCT
61.6 67.1 75.2 84.8 93.4 98.2 101.0 105.3 108.7 110.3 115.3 120.2 125.0 133.5 137.4 141.9 145.7 149.5 153.7 158.3 161.6 164.0 168.2 174.0
Chart is not seasonally adjusted
NOV DEC
61.9 62.1
AVG
60.6
CPI RATE
6.7%
67.4 67.7
65.2
9.0%
75.9 76.7
72.6 13.3%
85.5 86.3
82.4 12.5%
93.7 94.0
90.9
8.9%
98.0 101.2 105.3 109.0 110.4
97.6 101.3 105.3 109.3 110.5
96.5 99.6 103.9 107.6 109.6
3.8% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 1.1%
115.4 115.4 113.6 4.4%
120.3 120.5 118.3 4.4%
125.9 126.1 133.8 133.8
124.0 130.7
4.6% 6.1%
137.8 142.0 145.8 149.7
137.9 141.9 145.8 149.7
136.2 140.3 144.5 148.2
3.1% 2.9% 2.7% 2.7%
153.6 153.5 152.4 2.5%
158.6 158.6 156.9 3.3%
161.5 161.3 160.5 1.7%
164.0 163.9 163.0 1.6%
168.3 168.3 166.6 2.7%
174.1 174.0 172.1 3.4%
U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS
Consumer Prices Declined 0.1 Percent in December
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.1 percent in December, before seasonal adjustment, to a level of 174.0, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor.
For the 12-month period ending in December, the CPI-U increased 3.4 percent. The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) also declined 0.1 percent in December, prior to seasonal adjustment. The December level of 170.7 was 3.4 percent higher than the index in December 1999.
The core inflation rate, as measured by the index of all items less food and energy, increased 0.1 percent in December, following a 0.3 percent increase in November. A sharp downturn in the tobacco index and a smaller increase in shelter costs were responsible for the smaller advance in December than in November.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U rose 0.2 percent in December, the same as in each of the preceding
The Formula
Following is the formula for figuring Consumer Price Index percentage changes from one point in time to another.
Index point change
CPI Less previous index Equals index point change
112.5 108.5
4.0
Percent change
Index point difference Divided by the previous index Equals Results multiplied by 100 Equals percent change
4.0 108.5 0.037 0.037 x 100 3.7%
two months. The food index advanced 0.5 percent in December, following a 0.1 percent increase in October and no change in November. The energy index rose 0.2 percent in December, following increases of 0.2 and 0.1 percent in October and November, respectively. In December, the index for petroleum-based energy declined 1.4 percent, while the index for energy
services advanced 1.8 percent. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U rose 0.1 percent in December after advancing 0.2 percent in October and 0.3 percent in November.
Consumer prices rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter. This followed increases in the first three quarters at rates of 6.1, 2.6, and 2.8 percent, respectively.
Each of the three special index groups--food, energy, and all items less food and energy--contributed to the acceleration in 2000. The energy index, which had turned up sharply in 1999 after declining in 1998, increased 14.2 percent in 2000.Petroleumbased energy costs continued to advance sharply--up 15.7 percent-but only about half as much as in 1999.
Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U advanced at a 2.0 percent SAAR in the fourth quarter. Contributing to the acceleration in 2000 were increases in household furnishings and operations, recreation, and hospital and related services.
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators / February 2001 3
Georgia Index of Economic Indicators
197.0
Leading indicators Coincident indicators
167.8
138.6
109.4
80.2
1987-88 = 100
51.0 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01
Leading Index decreased 0.3 percent during December
Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted.
***
The Georgia Department of Labor's Index of Leading Economic Indicators decreased 0.3 percent in December to 163.0 from a revised 163.6, after seasonal adjustment. The average growth over the twelve months of 2000 showed the State's economy grew 3.6 percent for the year, compared to 4.4 percent in 1999.
While 2000 was a year of substantial growth, many of the component indicators peaked in March and April of 2000, beginning an eight month cycle of stability and decline. Despite downward pressure in the national economy, Georgia's indicators suggest that a recession is not imminent.
Recent 12 Months
68.4
Leading Coincident
66.0
63.5
61.0
58.6 1993 = 100
56.1
The Leading Index reflects activity that will impact the economy for a duration of three to six months into the future. Coincident indicators measure current conditions.
4 Georgia Economic Indicators / February 2001
State revenues declined a modest 0.3 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the month of December. Total nonagricultural payroll employment remained unchanged, while manufacturing employment declined 0.3 percent for the month. The number of unfilled job openings declined 8.4 percent during November. The Index of Coincident Indicators was down by 1.1 percent in December. The index, at 162.7 from a revised 164.5, grew 4.8 percent for the twelve month average over 1999.
Contributing to the December decline was a weakness in residential construction, down 7.3 percent for the month.
Georgia Department of Labor
Data Summary
December 2000
Georgia Economic Indicators
Seasonally Adjusted
Dec 2000
Nov 2000
Dec 1999
Percent Change Nov 2000
to Dec 2000
Percent Change Dec 1999
to Dec 2000
Nonagricultural Employment Retail Employment
4,004,000 755,600
4,005,000 754,800
3,955,000 731,000
Manufacturing Employment
598,200
599,800
603,100
Manufacturing Workweek
40.5
41.0
42.1
Weekly Manufacturing Earnings
$539.40
$539.67
$537.49
Deflated Manufacturing Earnings
$310.00
$309.98
$319.36
Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled
11,863
12,946
19,767
Initial Unemployment Claims
40,621
39,676
30,367
Continued Unemployment Claims
163,359
158,661
133,774
Unemployment Rate
3.0%
2.9%
3.5%
Insured Unemployment Rate
1.09%
1.05%
0.85%
New Motor Vehicle Sales
39,005
46,543
51,521
Residential Construction (building permits)
6,859
7,399
7,768
Nonresidential Construction (dollar value) $501,700,000 $384,400,000 $476,700,000
Deflated Nonresidential Construction
$430,300,000 $331,100,000 $424,500,000
New Business Corporations
4,515
4,885
4,948
Total State Revenues
$1,127,902,000 $1,131,097,000 $1,051,073,000
Deflated Total State Revenues
$569,940,000 $637,000,000 $615,520,000
-0.02 0.11 -0.27 -1.22 -0.05 0.01 -8.37 2.38 2.96
1.24 3.37 -0.81 -3.80 0.36 -2.93 -39.99 33.77 22.12
-16.20 -7.30 30.52 29.96 -7.57 -0.28
-10.53
-24.29 -11.70
5.24 1.37 -8.75 7.31 -7.41
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators / February 2001 5
Georgia Economic Indicators
Nonagricultural Employment
4.11 1998-99 1999-2000
4.03
MILLIONS
3.95
3.87
3.79
3.70
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1998-99 3,810,000 3,828,000 3,843,000 3,863,000 3,873,000 3,885,000 3,905,000 3,914,000 3,921,000 3,940,000 3,951,000 3,955,000
1999-2000 3,976,000 3,982,000 3,990,000 3,994,000 3,996,000 4,001,000 4,008,000 4,008,000 4,007,000 4,010,000 4,005,000 4,004,000
Retail Employment
781.9
1998-99 1999-2000
757.5
733.1
THOUSANDS
708.7
684.3
660.0
J
F
M
A
M
J
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O
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D
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1998-99
688,500 692,700 693,500 698,300 702,700 707,000 713,300 716,300 720,000 725,600 726,100 731,000
1999-2000
739,100 738,900 741,900 743,200 744,200 743,700 747,500 746,900 749,900 751,900 754,800 755,600
Manufacturing Employment
610
1998-99
1999-2000
607
604
THOUSANDS
600
597
594
J
F
M
A
M
J
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A
S
O
N
D
6 Georgia Economic Indicators / February 2001
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1998-99
597,000 597,500 597,800 598,600 598,300 599,200 598,200 600,200 599,600 600,600 601,700 603,100
1999-2000
605,000 605,200 605,200 606,200 605,500 604,000 604,700 602,400 602,600 601,100 599,800 598,200
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators
Manufacturing Workweek
42.8 1998-99 1999-2000
42.2
41.6
HOURS
41.0
40.4
39.8
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month 1998-99
Jan
41.7
Feb
41.3
Mar
41.7
Apr
41.8
May
41.8
Jun
42.0
Jul
41.8
Aug
41.7
Sep
41.4
Oct
41.6
Nov
42.0
Dec
42.1
1999-2000
41.9 41.8 41.4 41.6 41.3 41.1 41.3 41.5 41.1 41.4 41.0 40.5
Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings
$560
1998-99 1999-2000
$546
DOLLARS
$532
$518
$503
$489
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1998-99
$508.11 506.51 513.48 518.45 526.72 525.67 520.39 524.72 525.32 526.25 536.28 537.49
1999-2000
$ 537.98 537.85 532.14 538.93 532.65 529.16 535.77 540.53 536.98 542.17 539.67 539.40
Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings
DOLLARS
$326 $321
1998-99
1999-2000
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month 1998-99
1999-2000
Jan
$316
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
$311
Jun
Jul
Aug
$306
Sep
Oct
Nov
$301
Dec
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
$ 309.26 307.91 311.20 311.94 316.92 316.29 312.17 314.02 312.88 312.87 318.65 319.36
$ 318.90 316.94 311.01 314.80 310.95 307.12 310.41 312.81 309.14 311.59 309.98 310.00
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators / February 2001 7
Georgia Economic Indicators
Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled*
23.1
1998-99
1999-2000
20.2
THOUSANDS
17.3
14.5
11.6
8.7
J
F
M
A
M
J
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A
S
O
N
D
* Jobs listed with Georgia Department of Labor
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Jan Feb M ar Ap r M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1998-99
15,388 16,902 17,813 17,884 15,387 15,057 15,824 16,780 16,998 16,736 18,311 19,767
1999-2000
17,810 18,381 18,312 17,854 17,552 16,389 16,036 15,401 13,979 13,504 12,946 11,863
Initial Unemployment Claims
46.5
1998-99
1999-2000
41.3
THOUSANDS
36.1
30.8
25.6
20.3
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1998-99
33,543 31,291 32,104 32,453 28,471 30,064 30,381 31,981 31,183 27,793 31,177 30,367
1999-2000
26,384 27,609 27,485 27,437 28,671 30,398 30,806 34,999 35,955 38,371 39,676 40,621
Continued Unemployment Claims
182.1
1998-99
1999-2000
166.4
THOUSANDS
150.8
135.2
119.5
103.9
J
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M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
8 Georgia Economic Indicators / February 2001
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1998-99
128,002 137,578 142,926 143,047 140,398 152,692 132,122 151,996 143,579 141,779 151,798 133,774
1999-2000
141,911 134,121 122,596 134,439 139,181 131,815 155,921 141,844 158,832 155,000 158,661 163,359
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate
4.8
1998-99
1999-2000
4.3
PERCENTAGES
3.8
3.3
2.8
2.3
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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1998-99 1999-2000
3.8 % 4.1 4.2 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.7 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.5
3.6% 3.5 3.4 3.1 3.3 4.1 3.8 4.0 3.8 3.7 2.9 3.0
Insured Unemployment Rate
1.20 1998-99 1999-2000
1.10
PERCENTAGES
1.00
0.90
0.80
0.70
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1998-99
0.92% 0.88 0.88 0.87 0.90 0.91 0.92 0.93 0.91 0.91 0.89 0.85
1999-2000
0.81 % 0.81 0.83 0.88 0.88 0.92 0.91 0.96 0.95 0.97 1.05 1.09
New Motor Vehicle Sales
THOUSANDS
66
1998-99
1999-2000
59
51
43
36
28
J
F
M
A
M
J
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A
S
O
N
D
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1998-99 50,698 48,492 46,035 36,767 40,835 53,063 41,592 44,457 42,986 44,145 48,923 51,521
1999-2000 50,540 56,274 53,916 48,256 50,576 45,633 42,751 51,595 46,649 45,878 46,543 39,005
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators / February 2001 9
Georgia Economic Indicators
Residential Construction
8,999
1998-99
1999-2000
8,445
HOUSEHOLD UNITS
7,892
7,338
6,785
6,231
J
F
M
A
M
J
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A
S
O
N
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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1998-99
7,150 7,495 7,282 7,521 7,257 7,233 6,968 7,365 7,362 7,419 7,738 7,768
1999-2000
8,337 8,070 7,802 7,578 7,926 7,856 7,810 7,137 7,474 7,214 7,399 6,859
Nonresidential Construction
$682
1998-99
1999-2000
$604
$526
MILLIONS
$448
$370
$292
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
Deflated Nonresidential Construction
$598
1998-99
1999-2000
$527
$457
MILLIONS
$386
$316
$245
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
10 Georgia Economic Indicators / February 2001
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1998-99
$ 532,100,000 497,700,000 507,000,000 529,000,000 447,300,000 482,600,000 547,700,000 523,100,000 495,900,000 388,500,000 412,600,000 476,700,000
1999-2000
$ 480,200,000 453,600,000 557,700,000 493,700,000 505,300,000 581,200,000 408,400,000 392,100,000 533,800,000 537,800,000 384,400,000 501,700,000
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1998-99
$ 490,400,000 458,300,000 465,600,000 484,000,000 407,400,000 437,100,000 495,200,000 472,100,000 447,200,000 348,700,000 368,700,000 424,500,000
1999-2000
$ 425,700,000 401,100,000 492,200,000 433,500,000 442,500,000 507,600,000 355,400,000 341,000,000 462,600,000 464,400,000 331,100,000 430,300,000
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators
New Business Corporations*
5,663
1998-99
1999-2000
5,153
CHARTERS
4,642
4,132
3,621
3,111
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
* Includes limited liability companies
Total State Revenues
$1,260
1998-99
1999-2000
$1,193
$1,126
MILLIONS
$1,060
$993
$926
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
J an F eb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep O ct Nov D ec
1998-99
3,650 4,018 4,188 4,423 3,857 4,308 4,360 4,211 4,670 4,219 4,598 4,948
1999-2000
4,591 4,537 4,599 4,172 5,108 4,627 4,292 4,941 4,356 4,803 4,885 4,515
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
J an F eb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep O ct Nov D ec
1998-99
$1,047,156,000 1,001,236,000 1,014,673,000 1,018,009,000 1,048,466,000 1,031,463,000 1,030,658,000 1,048,107,000 1,055,850,000 1,061,314,000 1,095,996,000 1,051,073,000
1999-2000
$1,059,797,000 1,053,410,000 1,055,106,000 1,070,016,000 1,090,881,000 1,098,533,000 1,135,348,000 1,155,591,000 1,121,508,000 1,170,566,000 1,131,097,000 1,127,902,000
Deflated Total State Revenues
$707
1998-99
1999-2000
Monthly Averages
Seasonally Adjusted
MILLIONS
$680
$653
$626
$599
$573
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
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D
Month
Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1998-99
$ 637,000,000 343,880,000 608,000,000 654,100,000 614,000,000 953,330,000 612,000,000 520,460,000 630,000,000 845,970,000 620,000,000 615,520,000
1999-2000
$ 628,000,000 213,990,000 620,000,000 748,380,000 616,000,000 660,430,000 625,000,000 9,350,000 636,000,000 824,870,000 637,000,000 569,940,000
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators / February 2001 11
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