GEORGIA Economic Indicators A Monthly Report of Georgia State Labor Market and Economic Trends .A>HK=HO Volume 6, Issue 12 Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner Georgia Economic Indicators Monthly Report December 2000 Data Volume 6, Issue 11 February 2001 Cover art: Stephens County Courthouse - Huey J. Theus, Mableton, Georgia Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 International Boulevard, Atlanta, Georgia 303031751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177. Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner Equal Opportunity Employer/Programs - Auxiliary Aids and Services Available Upon Request to Individuals With Disabilities Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / February 2001 1 Introduction G eorgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is designed to provide in a single publication data on a number of indicators used to measure movement of the state's economy. The indicators have been collected and disseminated for many years by state and federal governments and private agencies, but not under a single cover. Contributing agencies include Georgia's Department of Labor, Department of Revenue and Office of Secretary of State, the U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the F.W. Dodge Company. All data except those contained in the U.S. Consumer Price Index chart on Page 3 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data which have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars. Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually in February. The purpose of the publications is to serve the business and professional communities, economic developers, economists, educators and others who have need for information on state economic trends. Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report and Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Stephen Matta, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 International Boulevard, Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177. Data Sources Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Employment, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Retail Employment, Manufacturing Employment and Manufacturing Workweek -- Georgia Department of Labor Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate and United States Labor Force Estimates -- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group * Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center 2 Georgia Economic Indicators / February 2001 Georgia Department of Labor Consumer Price Index YEAR 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 JAN 58.5 62.5 68.3 77.8 87.0 94.3 97.8 101.9 105.5 109.6 111.2 115.7 121.1 127.4 134.6 138.1 142.6 146.2 150.3 154.4 159.1 161.6 164.3 168.7 FEB 59.1 62.9 69.1 78.9 87.9 94.6 97.9 102.4 106.0 109.3 111.6 116.0 121.6 128.0 134.8 138.6 143.1 146.7 150.9 154.9 159.6 161.9 164.5 169.7 MAR 59.5 63.4 69.8 80.1 88.5 94.5 97.9 102.6 106.4 108.8 112.1 116.5 122.3 128.7 135.0 139.3 143.6 147.2 151.4 155.7 160.0 162.2 165.0 171.1 APR MAY 60.0 60.3 63.9 64.5 70.6 71.5 81.0 81.8 89.1 89.8 94.9 95.8 98.6 99.2 103.1 103.4 106.9 107.3 108.6 108.9 112.7 113.1 117.1 117.5 123.1 123.8 128.9 129.2 135.2 135.6 139.5 139.7 144.0 144.2 147.4 147.5 151.9 152.2 156.3 156.6 160.2 160.1 162.5 162.8 166.2 166.2 171.2 171.3 JUN 60.7 65.2 72.3 82.7 90.6 97.0 99.5 103.7 107.6 109.5 113.5 118.0 124.1 129.9 136.0 140.2 144.4 148.0 152.5 156.7 160.3 163.0 166.2 172.3 JUL 61.0 65.7 73.1 82.7 91.6 97.5 99.9 104.1 107.0 109.5 113.8 118.5 124.4 130.4 136.2 140.5 144.4 148.4 152.5 157.0 160.5 163.2 166.7 172.6 AUG 61.2 66.0 73.8 88.3 92.3 97.7 100.2 104.5 108.0 109.7 114.4 119.0 124.6 131.6 136.6 140.9 144.8 149.0 152.9 157.3 160.8 163.4 167.1 172.8 SEP 61.4 66.5 74.6 84.0 93.2 97.9 100.7 105.0 108.3 110.2 115.0 119.8 125.0 132.7 137.2 141.3 145.1 149.4 153.2 157.8 161.2 163.6 167.9 173.7 OCT 61.6 67.1 75.2 84.8 93.4 98.2 101.0 105.3 108.7 110.3 115.3 120.2 125.0 133.5 137.4 141.9 145.7 149.5 153.7 158.3 161.6 164.0 168.2 174.0 Chart is not seasonally adjusted NOV DEC 61.9 62.1 AVG 60.6 CPI RATE 6.7% 67.4 67.7 65.2 9.0% 75.9 76.7 72.6 13.3% 85.5 86.3 82.4 12.5% 93.7 94.0 90.9 8.9% 98.0 101.2 105.3 109.0 110.4 97.6 101.3 105.3 109.3 110.5 96.5 99.6 103.9 107.6 109.6 3.8% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 1.1% 115.4 115.4 113.6 4.4% 120.3 120.5 118.3 4.4% 125.9 126.1 133.8 133.8 124.0 130.7 4.6% 6.1% 137.8 142.0 145.8 149.7 137.9 141.9 145.8 149.7 136.2 140.3 144.5 148.2 3.1% 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 153.6 153.5 152.4 2.5% 158.6 158.6 156.9 3.3% 161.5 161.3 160.5 1.7% 164.0 163.9 163.0 1.6% 168.3 168.3 166.6 2.7% 174.1 174.0 172.1 3.4% U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS Consumer Prices Declined 0.1 Percent in December The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.1 percent in December, before seasonal adjustment, to a level of 174.0, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. For the 12-month period ending in December, the CPI-U increased 3.4 percent. The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) also declined 0.1 percent in December, prior to seasonal adjustment. The December level of 170.7 was 3.4 percent higher than the index in December 1999. The core inflation rate, as measured by the index of all items less food and energy, increased 0.1 percent in December, following a 0.3 percent increase in November. A sharp downturn in the tobacco index and a smaller increase in shelter costs were responsible for the smaller advance in December than in November. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U rose 0.2 percent in December, the same as in each of the preceding The Formula Following is the formula for figuring Consumer Price Index percentage changes from one point in time to another. Index point change CPI Less previous index Equals index point change 112.5 108.5 4.0 Percent change Index point difference Divided by the previous index Equals Results multiplied by 100 Equals percent change 4.0 108.5 0.037 0.037 x 100 3.7% two months. The food index advanced 0.5 percent in December, following a 0.1 percent increase in October and no change in November. The energy index rose 0.2 percent in December, following increases of 0.2 and 0.1 percent in October and November, respectively. In December, the index for petroleum-based energy declined 1.4 percent, while the index for energy services advanced 1.8 percent. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U rose 0.1 percent in December after advancing 0.2 percent in October and 0.3 percent in November. Consumer prices rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter. This followed increases in the first three quarters at rates of 6.1, 2.6, and 2.8 percent, respectively. Each of the three special index groups--food, energy, and all items less food and energy--contributed to the acceleration in 2000. The energy index, which had turned up sharply in 1999 after declining in 1998, increased 14.2 percent in 2000.Petroleumbased energy costs continued to advance sharply--up 15.7 percent-but only about half as much as in 1999. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U advanced at a 2.0 percent SAAR in the fourth quarter. Contributing to the acceleration in 2000 were increases in household furnishings and operations, recreation, and hospital and related services. Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / February 2001 3 Georgia Index of Economic Indicators 197.0 Leading indicators Coincident indicators 167.8 138.6 109.4 80.2 1987-88 = 100 51.0 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 Leading Index decreased 0.3 percent during December Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted. *** The Georgia Department of Labor's Index of Leading Economic Indicators decreased 0.3 percent in December to 163.0 from a revised 163.6, after seasonal adjustment. The average growth over the twelve months of 2000 showed the State's economy grew 3.6 percent for the year, compared to 4.4 percent in 1999. While 2000 was a year of substantial growth, many of the component indicators peaked in March and April of 2000, beginning an eight month cycle of stability and decline. Despite downward pressure in the national economy, Georgia's indicators suggest that a recession is not imminent. Recent 12 Months 68.4 Leading Coincident 66.0 63.5 61.0 58.6 1993 = 100 56.1 The Leading Index reflects activity that will impact the economy for a duration of three to six months into the future. Coincident indicators measure current conditions. 4 Georgia Economic Indicators / February 2001 State revenues declined a modest 0.3 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the month of December. Total nonagricultural payroll employment remained unchanged, while manufacturing employment declined 0.3 percent for the month. The number of unfilled job openings declined 8.4 percent during November. The Index of Coincident Indicators was down by 1.1 percent in December. The index, at 162.7 from a revised 164.5, grew 4.8 percent for the twelve month average over 1999. Contributing to the December decline was a weakness in residential construction, down 7.3 percent for the month. Georgia Department of Labor Data Summary December 2000 Georgia Economic Indicators Seasonally Adjusted Dec 2000 Nov 2000 Dec 1999 Percent Change Nov 2000 to Dec 2000 Percent Change Dec 1999 to Dec 2000 Nonagricultural Employment Retail Employment 4,004,000 755,600 4,005,000 754,800 3,955,000 731,000 Manufacturing Employment 598,200 599,800 603,100 Manufacturing Workweek 40.5 41.0 42.1 Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $539.40 $539.67 $537.49 Deflated Manufacturing Earnings $310.00 $309.98 $319.36 Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled 11,863 12,946 19,767 Initial Unemployment Claims 40,621 39,676 30,367 Continued Unemployment Claims 163,359 158,661 133,774 Unemployment Rate 3.0% 2.9% 3.5% Insured Unemployment Rate 1.09% 1.05% 0.85% New Motor Vehicle Sales 39,005 46,543 51,521 Residential Construction (building permits) 6,859 7,399 7,768 Nonresidential Construction (dollar value) $501,700,000 $384,400,000 $476,700,000 Deflated Nonresidential Construction $430,300,000 $331,100,000 $424,500,000 New Business Corporations 4,515 4,885 4,948 Total State Revenues $1,127,902,000 $1,131,097,000 $1,051,073,000 Deflated Total State Revenues $569,940,000 $637,000,000 $615,520,000 -0.02 0.11 -0.27 -1.22 -0.05 0.01 -8.37 2.38 2.96 1.24 3.37 -0.81 -3.80 0.36 -2.93 -39.99 33.77 22.12 -16.20 -7.30 30.52 29.96 -7.57 -0.28 -10.53 -24.29 -11.70 5.24 1.37 -8.75 7.31 -7.41 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / February 2001 5 Georgia Economic Indicators Nonagricultural Employment 4.11 1998-99 1999-2000 4.03 MILLIONS 3.95 3.87 3.79 3.70 J F M A M J J A S O N D Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1998-99 3,810,000 3,828,000 3,843,000 3,863,000 3,873,000 3,885,000 3,905,000 3,914,000 3,921,000 3,940,000 3,951,000 3,955,000 1999-2000 3,976,000 3,982,000 3,990,000 3,994,000 3,996,000 4,001,000 4,008,000 4,008,000 4,007,000 4,010,000 4,005,000 4,004,000 Retail Employment 781.9 1998-99 1999-2000 757.5 733.1 THOUSANDS 708.7 684.3 660.0 J F M A M J J A S O N D Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1998-99 688,500 692,700 693,500 698,300 702,700 707,000 713,300 716,300 720,000 725,600 726,100 731,000 1999-2000 739,100 738,900 741,900 743,200 744,200 743,700 747,500 746,900 749,900 751,900 754,800 755,600 Manufacturing Employment 610 1998-99 1999-2000 607 604 THOUSANDS 600 597 594 J F M A M J J A S O N D 6 Georgia Economic Indicators / February 2001 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1998-99 597,000 597,500 597,800 598,600 598,300 599,200 598,200 600,200 599,600 600,600 601,700 603,100 1999-2000 605,000 605,200 605,200 606,200 605,500 604,000 604,700 602,400 602,600 601,100 599,800 598,200 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators Manufacturing Workweek 42.8 1998-99 1999-2000 42.2 41.6 HOURS 41.0 40.4 39.8 J F M A M J J A S O N D Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month 1998-99 Jan 41.7 Feb 41.3 Mar 41.7 Apr 41.8 May 41.8 Jun 42.0 Jul 41.8 Aug 41.7 Sep 41.4 Oct 41.6 Nov 42.0 Dec 42.1 1999-2000 41.9 41.8 41.4 41.6 41.3 41.1 41.3 41.5 41.1 41.4 41.0 40.5 Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $560 1998-99 1999-2000 $546 DOLLARS $532 $518 $503 $489 J F M A M J J A S O N D Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1998-99 $508.11 506.51 513.48 518.45 526.72 525.67 520.39 524.72 525.32 526.25 536.28 537.49 1999-2000 $ 537.98 537.85 532.14 538.93 532.65 529.16 535.77 540.53 536.98 542.17 539.67 539.40 Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings DOLLARS $326 $321 1998-99 1999-2000 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month 1998-99 1999-2000 Jan $316 Feb Mar Apr May $311 Jun Jul Aug $306 Sep Oct Nov $301 Dec J F M A M J J A S O N D $ 309.26 307.91 311.20 311.94 316.92 316.29 312.17 314.02 312.88 312.87 318.65 319.36 $ 318.90 316.94 311.01 314.80 310.95 307.12 310.41 312.81 309.14 311.59 309.98 310.00 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / February 2001 7 Georgia Economic Indicators Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled* 23.1 1998-99 1999-2000 20.2 THOUSANDS 17.3 14.5 11.6 8.7 J F M A M J J A S O N D * Jobs listed with Georgia Department of Labor Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jan Feb M ar Ap r M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1998-99 15,388 16,902 17,813 17,884 15,387 15,057 15,824 16,780 16,998 16,736 18,311 19,767 1999-2000 17,810 18,381 18,312 17,854 17,552 16,389 16,036 15,401 13,979 13,504 12,946 11,863 Initial Unemployment Claims 46.5 1998-99 1999-2000 41.3 THOUSANDS 36.1 30.8 25.6 20.3 J F M A M J J A S O N D Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1998-99 33,543 31,291 32,104 32,453 28,471 30,064 30,381 31,981 31,183 27,793 31,177 30,367 1999-2000 26,384 27,609 27,485 27,437 28,671 30,398 30,806 34,999 35,955 38,371 39,676 40,621 Continued Unemployment Claims 182.1 1998-99 1999-2000 166.4 THOUSANDS 150.8 135.2 119.5 103.9 J F M A M J J A S O N D 8 Georgia Economic Indicators / February 2001 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1998-99 128,002 137,578 142,926 143,047 140,398 152,692 132,122 151,996 143,579 141,779 151,798 133,774 1999-2000 141,911 134,121 122,596 134,439 139,181 131,815 155,921 141,844 158,832 155,000 158,661 163,359 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate 4.8 1998-99 1999-2000 4.3 PERCENTAGES 3.8 3.3 2.8 2.3 J F M A M J J A S O N D Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1998-99 1999-2000 3.8 % 4.1 4.2 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.7 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.6% 3.5 3.4 3.1 3.3 4.1 3.8 4.0 3.8 3.7 2.9 3.0 Insured Unemployment Rate 1.20 1998-99 1999-2000 1.10 PERCENTAGES 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 J F M A M J J A S O N D Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1998-99 0.92% 0.88 0.88 0.87 0.90 0.91 0.92 0.93 0.91 0.91 0.89 0.85 1999-2000 0.81 % 0.81 0.83 0.88 0.88 0.92 0.91 0.96 0.95 0.97 1.05 1.09 New Motor Vehicle Sales THOUSANDS 66 1998-99 1999-2000 59 51 43 36 28 J F M A M J J A S O N D Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1998-99 50,698 48,492 46,035 36,767 40,835 53,063 41,592 44,457 42,986 44,145 48,923 51,521 1999-2000 50,540 56,274 53,916 48,256 50,576 45,633 42,751 51,595 46,649 45,878 46,543 39,005 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / February 2001 9 Georgia Economic Indicators Residential Construction 8,999 1998-99 1999-2000 8,445 HOUSEHOLD UNITS 7,892 7,338 6,785 6,231 J F M A M J J A S O N D Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1998-99 7,150 7,495 7,282 7,521 7,257 7,233 6,968 7,365 7,362 7,419 7,738 7,768 1999-2000 8,337 8,070 7,802 7,578 7,926 7,856 7,810 7,137 7,474 7,214 7,399 6,859 Nonresidential Construction $682 1998-99 1999-2000 $604 $526 MILLIONS $448 $370 $292 J F M A M J J A S O N D Deflated Nonresidential Construction $598 1998-99 1999-2000 $527 $457 MILLIONS $386 $316 $245 J F M A M J J A S O N D 10 Georgia Economic Indicators / February 2001 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1998-99 $ 532,100,000 497,700,000 507,000,000 529,000,000 447,300,000 482,600,000 547,700,000 523,100,000 495,900,000 388,500,000 412,600,000 476,700,000 1999-2000 $ 480,200,000 453,600,000 557,700,000 493,700,000 505,300,000 581,200,000 408,400,000 392,100,000 533,800,000 537,800,000 384,400,000 501,700,000 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1998-99 $ 490,400,000 458,300,000 465,600,000 484,000,000 407,400,000 437,100,000 495,200,000 472,100,000 447,200,000 348,700,000 368,700,000 424,500,000 1999-2000 $ 425,700,000 401,100,000 492,200,000 433,500,000 442,500,000 507,600,000 355,400,000 341,000,000 462,600,000 464,400,000 331,100,000 430,300,000 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators New Business Corporations* 5,663 1998-99 1999-2000 5,153 CHARTERS 4,642 4,132 3,621 3,111 J F M A M J J A S O N D * Includes limited liability companies Total State Revenues $1,260 1998-99 1999-2000 $1,193 $1,126 MILLIONS $1,060 $993 $926 J F M A M J J A S O N D Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month J an F eb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep O ct Nov D ec 1998-99 3,650 4,018 4,188 4,423 3,857 4,308 4,360 4,211 4,670 4,219 4,598 4,948 1999-2000 4,591 4,537 4,599 4,172 5,108 4,627 4,292 4,941 4,356 4,803 4,885 4,515 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month J an F eb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep O ct Nov D ec 1998-99 $1,047,156,000 1,001,236,000 1,014,673,000 1,018,009,000 1,048,466,000 1,031,463,000 1,030,658,000 1,048,107,000 1,055,850,000 1,061,314,000 1,095,996,000 1,051,073,000 1999-2000 $1,059,797,000 1,053,410,000 1,055,106,000 1,070,016,000 1,090,881,000 1,098,533,000 1,135,348,000 1,155,591,000 1,121,508,000 1,170,566,000 1,131,097,000 1,127,902,000 Deflated Total State Revenues $707 1998-99 1999-2000 Monthly Averages Seasonally Adjusted MILLIONS $680 $653 $626 $599 $573 J F M A M J J A S O N D Month Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1998-99 $ 637,000,000 343,880,000 608,000,000 654,100,000 614,000,000 953,330,000 612,000,000 520,460,000 630,000,000 845,970,000 620,000,000 615,520,000 1999-2000 $ 628,000,000 213,990,000 620,000,000 748,380,000 616,000,000 660,430,000 625,000,000 9,350,000 636,000,000 824,870,000 637,000,000 569,940,000 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / February 2001 11 To receive a free subscription to this publication, please complete and mail this form Mail to: If you prefer, you may e-mail your request to stephen.matta@dol.state.ga.us Stephen Matta Workforce Information and Analysis Georgia Department of Labor 148 International Boulevard N.E. 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