Employment, earnings, and recidivism among Georgia's TANF leavers: findings from the TANF follow-up system, 1997/2002

Employment, Earnings, and Recidivism among Georgia's TANF Leavers:
Findings from the TANF Follow-Up System
Georgia Department of Human Resources D i i i of Family and Children Services
January, 2003

Acknowledgments
This report was prepared by Nancy Bross under contract to the Georgia Department of Human Resources. She would like t o thank the staff of the Division of Family and Children Services, Evaluation and Reporting Section for their continuing support of the development and maintenance of the TANF Follow-Up System and for their assistance in the preparation of this report.

Contents

Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Overview of TANF Leavers and their Outcomes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Outcomes in the First Year Following Exit: Losing Ground . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
. Longer Term Outcomes: Continuing Established Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 9
Leavers' Families and Poverty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Industries Employing TANF Leavers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29

. . Appendix A: TANF Income Ceiling and Federal Poverty
Number in Family . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Guidelines
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A-i

Appendix B: Industry of Employment in the 4thQuarter After Exit for
2000 Leavers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A-iii

Executive Summary
The TANF Follow-Up System tracks the employment, earnings, and recidivism (i.e. return t o TANF) of adults leaving TANF. It uses administrative data from the Department of Human Resources' management information system for TANF and the Georgia Department of Labor's Unemployment Insurance (UI) wage record files.
Population of TANF Leavers
The TANF Follow-Up System now includes over 148,000 adult recipients who left TANF during the period from January 1997 through December 2001.
The earliest leavers were older, and had older and fewer children, than subsequent leavers, but in recent years, the population has stabilized. The median age of 2001 leavers was 27. They had an average of 2 children, and the median age of their
youngest child was 2. Fifty-eight percent were high school graduates - a small
decrease from the percentage of graduates in the previous t w o annual cohorts.
Data available beginning with the 2001 leavers enable us t o look at the relationship between number of i3.XXUed lifetime limit months and leaver characteristics. ("Accrued lifetime limit months" refers t o the number of benefit months a recipient has accumulated toward the State limit of 48 months and the Federal limit of 6 0 months.) The median number of accrued months among the 2001 leavers was 13, and 7 0 percent had accrued fewer than 25 months. Long-term recipients were very different from those who had accrued relatively few months. They were older, had more children and older children, were more likely t o be black and to live in an urban county, and were much less likely t o have graduated from high school.
Changing Economic Environment
The economic downturn which began early in 2001 resulted in substantial job loss in Georgia. In the first quarter of 2001, the number of Georgians filing new claims for unemployment insurance was 67 percent higher than it had been in the first quarter of the previous year. In June 2001, the number of households receiving TANF began t o rise, and has continued t o do so.
Employment
During the period from 1 9 9 7 through 2000, quarterly employment rates among adult leavers were highly consistent both over time and across exit cohorts, leveling off at 56 t o 59 percent around the fifth quarter after exit.
Over the period from January 2001 through March 2002, employment rates in the third through sixteenth post-exit quarters dropped t o between 48 and 50 percent across all cohorts. It is estimated that about 10,000 fewer leavers were employed by the end of March 2002 as a result of the economic downturn. There is some evidence that the declining employment rate was due more t o a reduction in the ability of those who were not working t o get jobs rather than t o increased loss of employment by those who had jobs.

While the percentage of leavers employed in at least one quarter of their first year following exit remained in the range of 7 4 t o 77 percent, the number employed in all four quarters of that year decreased from 43 percent among 1997 leavers t o 3 4 percent among those who left during the first quarter of 2001.
Employment rates in the second through fourth years following exit declined with each successive cohort, consistent with decreases in the first year following exit.
Earnings
Within exit cohorts, the average quarterly earnings of those who are employed continued t o increase over time. That is, the longer it had been since a cohort left TANF, the higher its average quarterly earnings. Among the early leavers, average quarterly earnings increased by about $1,000 over a four-year period.
Average quarterly earnings for the same post-exit quarter have remained about the same across all exit cohorts. That is, those who left in 2000 did not make any more at a comparable point in time than those who left in 1997.
While the downturn does not appear to have had a significant effect on the average quarterly earnings of those who are still employed, decreased quarters of employment meant that the average annual first-year earnings of employed leavers went below $7,000 for the first time.
As earnings increase, so does the probability of continued employment. About 9 0 percent of those with earnings equivalent t o full time employment at minimum wage
- about $2,678 - in one quarter will be employed in the next quarter.
Recidivism
Although recidivism rates continue t o decrease over time within exit cohorts, they have increased steadily across exit cohorts since the Follow-Up Study began. Twenty percent of the 1997 leavers returned to TANF in their first year following exit from TANF, compared to twenty-nine percent of the 2000 leavers.
The majority of the 2000 leavers who returned to TANF during their first year after exit had been members of previous exit cohorts. Their characteristics are similar t o those of the longer-term recipients identified in the 2001 annual cohort. It appears that increasing recidivism rates are due, in part, t o repeated, failed attempts by long-term recipients t o become self-supporting before reaching their lifetime limits.
Among the 2000 leavers, the average annual earnings of those who worked and did not return t o TANF were $8,433 - $2,935 more than those who returned for just one quarter and more than twice the average annual earnings of all those who returned t o TANF.

Labor Force Attachment
"Labor force attachment" refers t o the strength of an individual's connection t o the workforce, and it is a key concept in understanding the outcomes of TANF leavers.
Number of quarters worked - either in a single year or across multiple years - is a
measure of labor force attachment.
Among the 2000 leavers who worked in the first year following exit, those who worked in all four quarters earned more than twice as much as those who worked in three quarters, and twelve times as much as those who worked in only one quarter.
Among the 1997 leavers, only 15 percent did not have any earnings reported t o the UI system during the four years after they left TANF. The median number of quarters of employment was 11, and 20 percent had earnings in all 1 6 quarters. Fifty-six percent of those who worked in all sixteen quarters had annual earnings in the fourth year following exit that exceeded the Federal Poverty Guidelines for their family size, compared t o thirty-one percent of all employed 1997 leavers.
Number of quarters of employment in the first year after exit is a strong predictor of employment and earnings in subsequent years. Eighty-eight percent of the 1997 leavers who worked in all four quarters of their first year following exit worked in their fourth year following exit, with average annual earnings of $11,404.
Education
High school graduates were much more likely t o be employed in all four quarters of their first year after exit. Specifically, 4 2 percent of the 2000 cohort's graduates were employed in all four quarters, compared with 31 percent of the non-graduates.
Among the 2000 leavers with earnings in their first year following exit, the high school graduates earned an average of $2,738 more than the non-graduates.
Earnings Above the Federal Poverty Guidelines
Earnings relative t o the Federal Poverty Guidelines, which increase as family size increases, provide a good indicator of how well employed leavers are doing in meeting their families' needs. Within exit cohorts, the percentage of leavers with earnings above the poverty guidelines increases over time. For example, among the 1997 leavers, 18 percent of those who were employed had earnings that were above the poverty guidelines in the first year following exit. That number increased t o 31 percent in the fourth year following exit.
Because the poverty guidelines are increased annually t o reflect increases in the cost of living, earnings relative to the poverty guidelines provide a good basis for comparing buying-power across cohorts. Although more recent cohorts have earned about the same as earlier cohorts at comparable points in time, their buying power has eroded. That is, earnings by successive cohorts have not kept up with increases in the cost of living, and the percentage of leavers with earnings that exceed the Federal Poverty Guidelines has decreased. This erosion in buying power is probably due in large part

to the fact that the minimum wage has not increased with the cost of living.
The ability of TANF leavers to achieve earnings above the poverty guidelines is strongly related t o family size. Among the 1997 employed leavers, 3 6 percent of those with families with fewer then 4 members had annual earnings that exceeded the poverty guidelines, compared with 16 percent of those with 4 t o 6 family members and 3 percent of those with 7 or more family members. With sufficient labor force attachment, the prospects that leavers with one or t w o children will work their way out of poverty are good. For those with large families, however, this goal is essentially out of reach.
Industries of Employment
Fifty-seven percent of the 2000 leavers employed in the fourth quarter after exit worked in just ten industries. These industries, which were topped by eating and drinking establishments, personnel supply services, and nursing and personal care facilities, appear t o be characterized by part time employment and low wages.
A number of the same industries appeared on the list of top ten industries for 2 0 0 0 leavers with earnings above the poverty level, suggesting that they offer a diversity of opportunities.
Thirty-five percent of the 2000 leavers worked in wholesale and retail trade - the
major industrial classification with the lowest average quarterly earnings. Among the industry groups employing large numbers of leavers, earnings were best in manufacturing and processing, where 29 percent of workers had annual earnings above the poverty level.

Introduction
Georgia began implementation of Temporary Aid for Needy Families (TANF) on January 1, 1997. With TANF came more stringent work requirements for welfare recipients, a lifetime limit on receipt of welfare payments, and an end to the concept of entitlement. The Georgia Department of Human Resources (DHR) established the TANF Follow-Up System t o track the employment, earnings, and recidivism of adults leaving TANF. This report summarizes the post-TANF outcomes of over 148,000 adults who left TANF during the period from 1997
through 2001.
Methodology
The TANF Follow-Up System is a data base containing information on adult recipients from closed TANF cases. It matches DHR data on TANF recipients t o quarterly earnings data from the Georgia Department of Labor.
Identifying Adult Leavers. The event that triggers inclusion in follow-up is case closure. In fact, however, because families may go on and off TANF as their circumstances change or they go in and out of compliance with program requirements, it is not always clear when a case is truly "closed." Therefore, for purposes of follow-up, a case is considered closed when no benefits are received in t w o successive months.
Recipients are added t o the follow-up system the first time they meet the criterion for inclusion during a calendar year. If they receive additional benefits at a later date, they are considered recidivists. However, they only appear once in the follow-up file for that year.
Only those adults who were actually TANF recipients (i.e. included in the TANF grant) are addressed in this report. Excluded are adults who received a benefit on behalf of a dependent child but who did not, themselves, receive a benefit under TANF. Also excluded are other adult household members not included in the TANF grant.
Data. All of the data in the TANF Follow-Up System come from administrative data systems. The advantages of such data are low cost and continuity over time. The disadvantage is that neither what is collected nor how it is organized and maintained are likely t o be ideal for research purposes.
Data on recipients, households, and status at case closure for 1997 come from DHR's PARIS system. During 1998, DHR made a gradual transition t o SUCCESS, its new management information system. Consequently, data for 1998 come from both systems. SUCCESS expanded the scope of data available for future research and evaluation. However, data for 1997 and 1998 are limited t o informationcommon t o both systems. Additional data elements were added in March 2000.
Data on employment and earnings come from the unemployment insurance (UI) wage record. This record is a report of quarterly earnings submitted by all employers in the state whose workers are covered under the UI system. UI earnings data provide a low-cost way of tracking employment over time. However, they have t w o important limitations. First, UI earnings data are only available for those jobs covered under the unemployment insurance system. Notable exclusions are federal jobs and self-employment, including informal work

arrangements. For example, if a TANF leaver supplements her income by providing occasional childcare t o a neighbor, the resulting earnings are unlikely t o be reported t o the UI system. In addition, the earnings of Georgians who work in neighboring states are not included in Georgia's UI data base. Therefore, UI data consistently underestimate employment and earnings (especially in interstate labor markets) and the figures contained in this report reflect minimum levels of employment and earnings among former TANF recipients.
Second, because of the time required for employer reporting and State processing of UI earnings data, complete data on earnings for any quarter are not available until three quarters later. Therefore, in this report, data on employment in the exit quarter are available for all adult recipients who left TANF during 1997 though 2001. However, post-exit earnings data are only available through the first quarter of 2002.
Leavers are considered to have been employed in a particular quarter if they had reported earnings for that quarter. However, no information is available on wage levels, number of hours worked, or whether employment was continuous.
Data on recidivism come from PARIS and SUCCESS files of active TANF recipients. This report includes data on recidivism through September 2002. However, the process of capturing data on recidivism did not begin until October, 1997. Consequently, recidivism data for the earliest leavers are not complete.
In general, data are organized by quarterly exit cohorts. Sixteen quarters of follow-up data are available for the first exit cohort (January through March, 1997), but only one quarter of earnings data is available yet for the last (October through December, 2001).

O v e ~ i e wof TANF Leavers and their Outcomes

Welfare Dependency in a Changing Economy. From 1997 through 1999, the number of

Georgia households receiving TANF declined rapidly, as monthly counts of closed cases

exceeded the number of new cases being opened. (See Figure 1.) This pattern reflected the

combined effects of the provisions of wel-

fare reform and a strong economy. That is,

Figure 1

as TANF policy promoted work over depend-

Actiie TANF Cases: 1997 to 2001

ency, the economy provided opportunities 120,0001

I

for employment. In 2000, monthly cases

counts leveled off, with the number of

households coming into TANF balancing the

number of households leaving TANF. How-

ever, beginning early in 2001, the number of

households receiving TANF began t o in-

crease. In November 2002, the number of

households receiving TANF reached a level

last seen in June 1999. The increase in households receiving TANF coincided with an economic downturn that caused substantial job loss here in Georgia.

ZQWJ

-

JAN 97

JAN sa

JAN 9s

JAN m

AN 01

JANE

JULW

JULS

JULW

JULW

JULOl

JULU2

Month

The effects of changing economic conditions on Georgia's workforce can be seen in the

substantial and sustained increase in the number of Georgians filing new claims for

unemployment insurance. Workers are eligible for unemployment insurance when they loose

jobs in UI-covered employment through no fault of their own. Figure 2 shows total new UI

Figure 2 New Georgia UI Claims by Quarter

claims by quarter over the period from January 2000 through September 2002. The number of new claims was 67 percent higher

I in the first quarter of 2001 than it had been a year earlier, and new claims remained at a

very high level through the first quarter of 2002 - the most recent quarter of data avail-

able for use in this report. While the numbers

of new claims were somewhat lower in the

second and third quarters of 2002, they have

remained well above the 2000 levels. Since

January 2001, Georgia's TANF leavers have

2 0 0 0 ~ Z W W ~ 2001~2 2 0 ~ztmct2~

faced the challenge of supporting themselves and their families in an economy characterized

YearlQuarler

by substantial and continuing job loss.

The Leaver Population. The earliest leavers were, on average, older, and had both fewer and older children. Proportionally more of the early leavers were white, and resided in suburban counties. Although data on the educational levels of the earliest leavers are not available, the percentage of leavers who have graduated from high school decreased from 1999 through 2001. (See Table 1, below.)

Table 1 Characteristics of Adult TANF Leavers by Year

Characteristic
Number of Leavers
Women
Median Age
White Black Other Minority
Urban Suburban Rural
Average Number of Dependent Children
Median Age of Youngest Child
High School Graduates

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

42,094 42,963 38,244 32,761 31,773

96.1% 96.5% 95.4% 96.1% 95.9%

29

28

28

2 7

27

30.6% 67.4%
2.0%

25.0% 73.3%
1.7%

22.7% 75.6%
1.6%

23.8% 75.5%
.7%

24.4% 74.4%
1.1 %

32.7% 28.9% 38.5%

36.1 % 26.4% 37.5%

38.1 O h 23.4% 38.5%

38.8% 21.2% 40.0%

38.3% 22.3% 39.4%

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.1

2.0

4

4

3

3

2

---

--- 61.2% 59.6% 58.1 %

With the 2001 leavers, we can, for the first time, look at the relationship between number of TANF lifetime limit months accrued and demographic characteristics.' (See Table 2.) "Accrued lifetime limit months" refers t o the number of benefit months a recipient has accumulated toward the State limit of 48 months and the Federal limit of 6 0 months.' Lifetime limit months may be accrued over a continuous period or across multiple "spells" of TANF receipt. Therefore, the fact that leavers have, for example, accrued 15 benefit months does not mean that they received TANF continuously over a 15-month period. Rather, it means that they received benefits for a total of 15 months over the period from January 1997 t o the month in 2001 in which they left TANF.

' Data on number of accrued lifetime limit months are based on 26,220 adults who
left TANF from March through January 2001. These data are not available for those who left in January and February of that year.
Exemptions from the lifetime limits may be granted for reasons such as domestic violence or the need t o complete a work or training plan.

Table 2 Characteristics of 2001 Adult TANF Leavers by Total Beneffl Months

Characteristic
Percentage of Leavers
Women
Two-Parent Households
Median Age
White Black Other Minority
Urban Suburban Rural
Average Number of Dependent Children
Median Age of Youngest Child
High School Graduates

1-12
48.0%
92.7%
4.7%
26
35.2% 62.9%
1.9%
29.4% 29.2% 41.4%
1.8
2
60.7%

13- 24
22.5%
97.8%
1.2%
27
21.5% 77.3%
1.2%
38.7% 21.4% 39.9%
2.0
2
60.2%

25-36
12.9%
98.9%
.5%
27
12.5% 86.8%
.7%
45.8% 15.6% 38.5%
2.3
3
55.7%

37-48
10.6%
99.2%
.2%
28
7.6% 91.9%
.6%
53.6% 12.6% 33.8%
2.6
3
49.4%

49-60
6.0%
99.3%
.3%
32
6.4% 93.3%
.3%
62.0% 9.8%
28.1 %
2.7
5
45.9%

Leavers who had accumulated a high number of lifetime limit months were very different from those who left after receiving benefits for relatively short periods. Long-time recipients were older, less likely to be members of two-parent households, and much more likely t o be black and to live in urban counties. They had more children, and their youngest children were, on average, older. Fewer than half of those who had accrued 37 or more months had graduated from high school. However, the median number of accrued months was 13, and 7 0 percent of the 2001 leavers had accrued 24 or fewer months. Only 6 percent of the leavers had reached or exceeded the State lifetime limit of 48 months. Unfortunately, we do not have data on outcomes by accrued lifetime limits yet.
Overview of Quarterly Outcomes. Tables 3 through 5 present outcomes by exit cohort and post-exit quarter. An exit cohort is a group of individuals who left TANF during the same time period. Post-exit quarters are consecutively numbered quarters following exit from TANF. They allow comparability of outcomes across exit cohorts because they refer t o a uniform length of time since the quarter in which the cohorts left. In each table, outcomes occurring since January 2001 are shaded to highlight patterns occurring since the 2001 economic downturn.
Employment. Table 3 shows employment rates, by quarterly exit cohorts, over 1 6 quarters. During the period from 1997 through 2000, employment rates among adult leavers were highly consistent over time and across cohorts. During that period, 5 8
t o 6 5 percent of all leavers were employed during their exit quarters - the quarter in
which they left TANF. In subsequent quarters, employment rates declined slightly,

leveling off about the 5th quarter after exit in the range of 56 t o 59 percent. Employment rates were unaffected by seasonal variation. However, over the period from January 2001 through March 2002, employment rates in the 3rdthrough the 16th post-exit quarters dropped t o between 48 and 5 0 percent across all cohorts. Looking within exit cohorts, employment rates generally decreased by about 7 percentage points. The estimated effect of this decrease is that approximately 10,000 fewer leavers were employed by the end of March 2002 as a result of the economic downturn.
Earnings. Average quarterly earnings among those who were employed are shown in Table 4. Within a post-exit quarter, average earnings were generally consistent across exit cohorts. However, within each exit cohort, earnings increased steadily as length of time since exit increased, except that modest dips were consistently experienced in the first calendar quarter of each year. (This seasonal dip accounts for the small decrease in average earnings between the t w o most recent quarters shown.) Over the four-year period following exit, average quarterly earnings within exit cohorts typically increased by about $1,000. Among those who were employed, the economic downturn appeared t o have had little or no effect on average quarterly earnings. Obviously, however, it has had a very substantial effect on the total earnings of the leaver population.
Recidivism. Recidivism rates (Table 5) are the other side of employment and earnings, as those who cannot sustain themselves and their families through employment return t o welfare dependency. Within post-exit cohorts, recidivism rates were consistently lowest in the 1" post-exit quarter, peaked in the 3rdor 4thquarters following exit, and then gradually declined over time. Small increases in recidivism were seen in the third and fourth calendar quarters of 2001, but the effects of the economic downturn on recidivism appear t o be relatively modest. However, unlike employment and earnings, recidivism was not consistent across cohorts within post-exit quarters. Rather, recidivism rates have increased steadily with each new exit cohort since the TANF Follow-Up Study began.

L
Table 3
Employment Rates by Exit Cohort and Post-Exit Quarter

Exit Cohort

No. of ' Adult Leavers

Jan - Mar '97 8939

Apr - Jun'97 . 12918

Jul- Sep '97

9387

Oct - Dec '97 10850

Jan - Mar '98 11231

Apr - Jun '98 11824

Jul- Sep '98 10623

Oct - Dec '98 9285

Jan - Mar '99 11678

Apr - Jun '99 10485

Jul- Sep '99
Oct - Dec '99
Jan - Mar '00
- Apr Jun '00
Jul - Sep '00
- 0ct Dec '00 - Jan Mar '01 - Apr Jun '01

8390 7691 9243 8595 7852 7717 8961 8579

Jul- Sep '01
0ct - Dec '01

7627 7192

Employment Rates
Post-Exit Quarter 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 1l t h 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 63% 63% 59% 58% 57% 59% 58% 58% 57% 57% 57% 56% 57% 57% 56% 56% 55% 65% 62% 60% 58% 60% 59% 58% 57% 58% 57% 58% 57% 58% 57% 57% 55% 54% 65% 63% 60% 60% 59% 59% 57% 58% 57% 57% 58% 58% 57% 57% 55% 55% 54% 65% 62% 61% 60% 60% 58% 59% 58% 58% 58% 58% 57% 57% 55% 54% 54% 53%
I
61% 64% 60% 60% 57% 58% 58% 57% 58% 58% 57% 57% 55% 54% 54% 52% 50% 63% 62% 60% 57% 58% 57% 57% 57% 58% 56% 56% 54% 54% 53% 52% 49% 64% 63% 58% 59% 58% 57% 57% 57% 57% 57% 55% 55% 54% 52% 49% 65% 61% 60% 58% 58% 57% 58% 57% 56% 55% 54% 53% 57% 50% 61% 63% 59% 59% 58% 59% 57% 57% 55% 54% 53% 52% 49% 63% 62% 59% 58% 58% 57% 57% 54% 54% 53% 52% 49% 64% 64% 61% 60% 58% 58% 56% 55% 54% 52% 50% 65% 64% 61% 59% 57% 56% 56% 55% 53% 50%
1
61% 63% 58% 58% 55% 55% 53% 51% 49% 64% 62% 60% 56% 65% 53% 52% 48% 62% 63% 59% 57% 55% 53% 50% 61% 60% 56% 54% 52% 49%
I
60% 60% 55% 53% 50%
61% 60% 54% 49% 61% 60% 54%
61% 58% L

Table 4 Average Earnings among Employed Leavers by Post-Exit Quarter

Exit Cohort
Jan-Mar's7

1st 2196

2nd 2277

3rd 2552

4th 2400

5th 2619

6th 2734

Post-Exit Quarter 7th 8th 9th 10th 3010 2733 2930 3011

1I t h 3252

12th 13th 14th 3144 3249 3289

15th 3457

16th 3390

Apr-Jun'97 Jul-Sep'97 Oct-Dec'97 Jan-Mar's8

2206 2325 2092 2185

2466 2169 2306 2294

2288 2385 2401 2562

2514 2484 2748 2327

2610 2726 243 2502

2891 2525 2660 2625

2603 2709 2733 2844

2836 2853 2919 2736

2935 2978 2839 2844

3104 2875 2945 2919

3022 3009 3025 3122

3142 3084 3165 3060

3189 3263 3152 3116

3366 3190 3221 3139

3286 3262 3252 3357

3380 3280 3420
I
3215

Apr-Jun'98
- J u l - S e p ' 9 8
Oct-Dec'98

2155 2397 2074

2416 2185 2339

2177 2352 2371

2370 2447 2584

2485 2629 2497

2654 2555 2620

2566 2672 2701

2659 2759 2838

2744 2946 2739

2911 2840 2820

2824 2879 2875

2911 2940 3137
- 2946 3150 3043
3055 2939

3029

Jan-Mar'99 2184 2319 2518 2450 2531 2597 2770 2724 2827 2869 3016 2928

Apr-Jun'99 2166 2371 2319 2454 2531 2677 2649 2706 2795 2973 2823

Jul-Sep'99 2356 2273 2435 2540 2730 2687 2744 2799 2941 2826

Oct-Dec'99 2149 2351 2421 2641 2537 2620 2684 2883 2756

Jan- Marl00 2186 2321 2463 2391 2492 2552 2689 2606

Apr- Jun'00 2195 2378 2304 2409 2488 2642 2561

Jul-Sep'OO 2374 2318 2400 2483 2667 2568

0ct -DeclOO 2211 2317 2387 2548 2478 I
Jan - Mar '01 2232 2319 2482 2373

Apr-Jun'01
Jul - Sep '01 0ct - Dec '02

2168 2407 221 1

2385 2351

2316

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Outcomes in the First Year Following Exit: Losing Ground
As a group, more recent TANF leavers are not doing as well as those who left in the early years of the program. In the first year following exit they are working fewer quarters, earning less money, and returning t o TANF at higher rates. This pattern continues trends reported p r e v i ~ u s l y . ~ However, these trends have been exacerbated by the changing economic climate and the failure of earnings t o keep up with increases in the cost of living.
Data on the full impact of the economic downturn on employment in the first year following exit are not yet available. However, we can begin t o get a sense of its impact from the experiences of t w o groups. First, economic conditions began t o change during the first year following case closure of for those who left TANF in 2000. The later an adult left TANF that year, the more of her first postexit year took place in the changed economic environment. Second, we now have a full year of data on the adults who left TANF during the first quarter of 2001. Their outcomes provide an early indicationof the outcomes we can expect t o see for those who left during the balance of that year
- a time when job loss continued at high levels and the number of households receiving TANF
increased.
The Relationship Between Employment and Recidivism. Most of those who returned t o TANF in the first year after exit worked at some time during that year. Table 6 compares leavers from 1997 through the first quarter of 2001 and shows their distribution across t w o dimensions: whether they were employed during the first year following exit and whether they returned t o TANF during that year.

Table 6 Employment and Return to TANF in the First Year Following Exit

Ernployment/Return Group

1997*

1998

1999

Employed, Did Not Return

60 %

59%

58%

Employed and Returned

16%

17%

19%

Not Employed and Returned

4%

4%

4%

Neither Employed nor Returned

20%

20%

18%

* Figures for 1997 are based on leavers from July through December. * * Figures for 2001 are based on leavers from January through March.

2000 54% 21O h 5% 20%

2001 *
52% 22%
7% 20%

Approximately 20 percent of the leavers did not appear in either the State's UI records or the TANF rolls during the year following exit. These adults may have married and stayed home with their

"Employment, Earnings, and Recidivism among Georgia's TANF Leavers: Findings from the TANF Follow-Up System." Georgia Department of Human Resources, January 2002.

children, depended on family members, moved out of Georgia, received disability payments, worked in a neighboring state, or held a job that was not covered by unemployment insurance. From 1997 through 1999, another four percent returned to TANF without having worked in employment
covered under the UI system. Among leavers from 2000 and 2001, that number increased -
probably due to the economic downturn.
The majority of leavers worked in at least one quarter of the year after they left TANF, and most did not return to TANF during that year. However, over the five annual cohorts from 1997 through the first quarter of 2001, the proportion of leavers who were employed and who returned increased from 16 to 22 percent while those who were employed and who did not return decreased from 6 0 to 52 percent.

Table 7 Outcomes in the First Year Following Exit

Outcome

1997

1998

1999

Employed at Exit

65%

63%

63%

Employed in at Least One Quarter

75%

76%

77%

Employed in All Quarters

43 %

41 %

40%

Average Earnings in Quarters of Employment

$2,140 $2,092 $2,119

Average Annual Earnings (Employed Only)

$7,554 $7,293 $7,336

Annual Earnings above Poverty Guidelines

18%

15%

15%

Returned to TANF

20%

22%

24%

Average Months on TANF (Returned Only)

5.1

5.2

5.4

* Figures for 2001 based on leavers from January through March only.

2000
62% 75% 38% $2,085

2001 *
60% 74% 34% $2,045

$7,199 $6,940

12%

9%

27 % 5.3

29O h 5.5

Losing Ground. Table 7 summarizes outcomes in the first year following exit for leavers from 1997 through the first quarter of 2001. In general, those who left in 1997 experienced better outcomes than those who followed after them. Previously, we found that differences between the outcomes
of the 1997 leavers and those experienced by the 1998 and 1999 leavers - and especially their
higher recidivism rates - could be explained by changes in characteristics of the leaver population. While those leaving TANF in 2000 and 2001 are very similar t o those who left during the previous t w o years, they experienced a less favorable labor market in their first year following exit. The effects of economic conditions are seen most clearly in the substantial decrease in the percentage of leavers employed in all four quarters.

But perhaps the most troubling changes are in the greater percentage of leavers returning t o TANF and the lower percentage with earnings that exceed the Federal Poverty Guidelines. Because the poverty guidelines are increased annually t o reflect increases in the cost of living, earnings relative t o the poverty guidelines is an important measure of the relative buying power of leaver's earnings. From 1998 through 2002, as the average first-year earnings of TANF leavers decreased, the poverty guidelines increased by $538 per family member. (See Appendix A.) Steady increases in recidivism were, perhaps, inevitable as leavers not only had less income but also could buy less with the income they had. With each successive annual cohort, Georgia's TANF leavers have lost ground in their journey out of poverty.
Adults who Left TANF in 2000. Table 8 looks at those 2000 leavers who were employed in the first year after they left TANF. The relationships between sustained employment, earning level, and recidivism are very clear in this table. Only 9 percent of those who worked in just one quarter had average monthly earnings in the quarter worked that exceeded the TANF gross income ~ e i l i n gA. ~s numbers of quarters of employment increased, average monthly earnings in the quarters worked also increased, but it was only among those who had earnings in all four quarters that a majority of leavers had average monthly earnings in their quarters of employment that exceeded the TANF gross income ceiling. For the majority of all employed 2001 leavers, earned income reported t o the UI system was not high enough t o automatically disqualify them from receiving TANF.

Table 8 Outcomes of 2000 Leavers Employed in the First Year Following Exit by
Number of Quarters Employed

Outcome
Percentage of Employed Leavers Average Monthly Earnings in Quarters of Employment Average Monthly Earnings Exceeded TANF Gross Income Ceiling Average Annual Earnings Returned to TANF Average Months on TANF (Returned Only)
Note: Based on 25,090 2000 employed leavers.

Number of Quarters Employed in First Year Following Exit

1

2

3

4

14%

16%

19%

51 %

$306

$436

$578

$931

9% $918 40%
6.2

15% $2,613
41 YO 5.7

24 %

55%

$5,198 $1 1,167

38 %

1790

4.8

4.2

The TANF gross income ceiling, which is keyed t o family size, is the maximum amount of income a Georgia family may have and retain eligibility for TANF benefits.

Table 9 compares demographic characteristics of employed 2000 leavers by number of quarters of employment. Only t w o characteristics were related t o number of quarters worked. That is, the percentages of black adults and high school graduates increased as number of quarters of employment increased.

Table 9 Characteristics of 2000 Employed Leavers by Quarters of Employment in the First Year Following Exit

Characteristic

Quarters of Employment

1

2

3

Median Age

26

26

26

Average Number of Children

2.2

2.2

2.2

Median Age of Youngest Child

2

2

2

Race Black White Other

73%
26 %
< 1%

75% 24% <I%

77 % 23% <1%

County of Residence Urban Suburban Rural

37% 22% 41 %

39% 20% 41 %

39% 22% 40%

High School Graduate

53 %

54%

59%

Note: Based on 25,090 employed 2000 adult leavers.

4 27 2.2 2
81 % 19%
< 1%
39 % 22% 39% 67%

The relationship between earnings in the first year following exit and number of months of recidivism during that same year is shown in Figure 3. This graph is based on adults who left TANF during 2000 and who had earnings in one or more of the four quarters following their exit quarter. Those who did not return t o TANF at all had average annual earnings of $8,433 -$2,935 more than the average annual earnings of those who returned to TANF for just one month and more than twice the average annual earnings of all those who returned t o TANF that year.
Demographic differences between those employed 2000 leavers who returned t o TANF and those
who did not are presented in Table 10. Most notably, 65 percent of those who did not return were
high school graduates, compared to 55 percent of those who did return. In addition, those who did not return were disproportionately older, white, and residing in suburban counties5

Leavers who lived in the suburbs were more likely t o be high school graduates than those who lived in either urban or rural counties.

Because individual recipients may go onto and off of TANF multiple times, they may appear in more than one annual cohort. Among the 2000 leavers who were employed in the first year after exit, 53 percent
appear only in the 2000 cohort. Another 34
percent appear in one other cohort as well. Although we do not have data on accrued lifetime limit months for the 2000 leavers, the number of annual cohorts in which they appear gives us some indication of long-term welfare receipt, and identifies leavers with a history of recidivism.

Figure 3 Average Earnings by Months of Recidivism
2000 Leavers Employed in 1st Year After Exit
$10.000 $9,000
Months Returned to TANF

Table 10 Characteristics of 2000 Employed Leavers by Return to TANF in the First Year Following Exit
Characteristic

Median Age of Youngest Child

Race Black White Other

85.7% 13.9%
.4%

County of Residence Urban Suburban Rural

43.4% 15.1% 41.5%

High School Graduate

54.5%

Note: Based on 25,090 employed 2000 adult leavers.

75.1 % 24.3%
.6%
37.1 % 23.6% 39.3%
65.1 %

Figure 4 shows the number of annual cohorts in which an employed leaver appeared, by whether or not she returned to TANF during her first year after exit. The differences between those who did and did not return t o TANF are striking. Seventy-five percent of the 2000 leavers who returned to TANF in the first year following exit had been members of previous cohorts, compared t o thirty-six percent of those who did not return t o TANF that year. Overall, the characteristics of those who returned t o TANF are similar t o the 2001 leavers who had accrued 25 t o 36 months of lifetime limit months. (See Table 2.) It is possible that the steady increase in recidivism rates is due, in part, to the repeated, unsuccessful attempts of long-time recipients to establish themselves in the workforce and get off TANF before reaching their lifetime limits.

Figure 4 ~~~A~nnlualcohortsby Return to TANF
60

a
30 20 10

I

2

3

4

5

No. d Annual Coholts in Which Leaver Appears

Having a high school diploma makes an important contribution t o both employment and earnings and, therefore, t o reducing recidivism. Figure 5 shows the distribution of number of quarters of employment in the first year following exit by educational attainment. Not only were high school graduates more likely to be employed at some time during the year, but they were also much more likely to be employed in all four quarters. Specifically, 4 2 percent of the 2000 cohort's high school graduates were employed in all four quarters, compared t o 31 percent of the non-graduates.

Figure 5 Quarters of Employment by Education
2000 Leavers: First Year After Exit

30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
0

1

2

3

Quarters of Ernployrent

HS Grad
INO
nyes
4

Among those who were employed in the first year following exit, high school graduates earned an average of $2,738 more than those who had not graduated from high school. (See Figure 6 for average annual earnings by number of quarters worked and educational attainment.) Sixteen percent of the employed high school graduates had earnings that exceeded the poverty guidelines for their family size in the first year following exit, compared with six percent of employed nongraduates.
Figure 6
Average Annual Earnings by Education and
Quarters of Employment

1

2

3

4

Quarters of Emplayment

HS Grad
m No
0Yes

Longer Term Outcomes: Continuing Established Trends
Outcomes in the Second through Fourth Years Following Exit. Data on employment, earnings, and recidivism are now available for adults who left TANF in 1997. In addition, three years of follow-up data are available for 1998 leavers and t w o years of data for 1999 leavers. These data are summarized in Table 11.

Table 11 Outcomes in the Second through Fourth Years Following Exit

Outcome

1997

Second Year Outcomes

Employed in at Least One Quarter

72%

Employed in All Quarters

42 %

Ave. Earnings (Employed Only)

$8,793

Returned to TANF

19%

Ave. Months on TANF (Returned Only)

6.2

Third Year Outcomes

Employed in at Least One Quarter

70%

Employed in All Quarters

42O h

Ave. Earnings (Employed Only)

$9,885

Returned to TANF

15%

Ave. Months on TANF (Returned Only)

6.1

Fourth Year Outcomes

Employed in at Least One Quarter

67 %

Employed in All Quarters

41 %

Ave. Earnings (Employed Only)

$10,797

Returned to TANF

13%

Ave. Months on TANF (Returned Only)

6.0

1998

1999

72% 40% $8,361 22%
6.2

71 % 38 % $8,336 25%
6.2

69% 40% $9.256 19%
6.1

Employment, earnings and recidivism in the second through fourth years following exit reflect familiar patterns. Within annual cohorts, recidivism rates decreased over time, but within post-exit years, they were higher for more recent cohorts. Within post-exit years, the average earnings of those who were employed decreased slightly, but within annual cohorts, average earnings increased by about $1,000 from one year t o the next. That is, while more recent cohorts are not keeping up

w i t h increases in the cost of living, those who are employed do make steady progress over time. I n addition, within annual cohorts, the percentage of leavers with earnings in all four quarters remained about the same across years. However, within post-exit years, this important indicator of sustained employment and labor force attachment decreased across cohorts. Labor Force Attachment. "Labor force attachment" refers t o the strength of an individual's connection t o the workforce. Number of quarters of employment is a measure of the labor force attachment of TANF leavers. Figure 7 shows the distribution of number of quarters of employment among the 1997 leavers over the four years following their exit from TANF. Among the 1 9 9 7 leavers, only 15 percent did not have any UI-reported earnings in the four years after they left TANF. The median number of quarters of employment was 11, and 20 percent had earnings in all 1 6 quarters.
Figure 7 Total Quarters of Employment
1st through 4th Post-ExitYears
Quarters of Employment
Even among leavers who returned t o TANF, work was the norm. Those who returned t o TANF for at least one month over the four years following exit were employed during an average of 9.4 quarters in that same period. The issue for adults who leave TANF is not whether they work, but rather whether they work steadily enough to support their families and make financial progress over time. Table 1 2 shows the earnings of the 1997 leavers over the four years after they left TANF, by number of quarters worked in that period. As one would expect, those who worked more quarters had higher total earnings, but average quarterly earnings in the quarters worked also increased steadily as the number of quarters worked increased. Consequently, those who worked in all sixteen quarters earned more than three times as much per quarter worked as those who worked in only one quarter.

Table 12 Average Quarterly Earnings and Total Earnings by
Number of Quarters Worked in a 4-Year Period

Quarters Worked

Average Quarterly Earnings in Quarters
Worked

Average 4-Year Earnings

Year 4 Earnings Exceeded
Poverty Guidelines

1

$1,135

$1,135

<1%

2

$ 1,082

$2,164

< 1%

3

$1,339

$4.01 8

<1%

4

$1,504

$6,015

2.4%

5

$1,548

$7,740

2.4%

6

$1,661

$9,968

4.8%

7

$1,819

$12,737

5.9%

8

$1,849

$14,792

7.5%

9

$2,031

$18,281

9.6%

10

$2,092

$20,926

11.6%

11

$2,149

$23,648

13.4%

12

$2,341

$28,092

17.0%

13

$2,486

$32,315

20.3%

14

$2,703

$37,848

27.7%

15

$3,127

$46,918

28.9%

16

$3,667

$58,665

56.0%

Note: Based on 35.908 leavers who worked in at least one quarter over a 4-year period.

~reviouslyw,~e found that the probability that an individual who is employed in one quarter will be employed in the next is a function of t w o factors: whether the person is employed in the first quarter and, if so, how much he or she earned in that quarter. We reported that among the 1997 leavers, 8 6 t o 8 8 percent of those who were employed in one quarter were also employed in the next, while only 1 6 t o 18 percent of those who were not employed in the first quarter were employed in the second.
But the probability of employment in the next quarter increased as earnings in the first quarter increased. (See Figure 8.) While even those with the very lowest levels of earnings in one quarter had a probability of employment in the next quarter of about 62 percent, the probability of continued
employment was over 9 0 percent at quarterly earnings of $2,678 - equivalent t o full time

employment at minimum wage - and reached 99
percent at about $4,200.
The above relationships were found during a period when a robust economy made jobs plentiful. However, the employment rates of TANF leavers declined by about 7 percentage points between the fourth quarter of 2000 and the first quarter of 2001. What effect did this change have on the transitional probability of employment from one quarter t o the next?

Figure 8 Predicting Employment from Prior Earnings
r lea%-
&
6

The cohort that left TANF in the first quarter of 1999 is typical. Its fifth through twelfth post-exit

~%1

$0

s1,000

s2.000

$3.000

s4.m

I
55.000

$500

M.500

$2.500

$3.500

$4,500

quarters spanned the period from the second quarter of 2000 through the first quarter of 2002.

Earnings in Quarter Q

During this period, the cohort's employment rates went from 58.5 t o 49.2 percent. Table 13 shows

the percentages of leavers making t w o kinds of transitions between quarters: remaining employed

and becoming employed. The shaded areas of the table indicate transitions t o quarters affected by

the economic downturn. While the percentage of those who were employed who remained

employed changed relatively little, the percentage of unemployed leavers who became employed

decreased.

Table 13
Employment Transition Rates between Quarters:
2000 Q 2 through 2002 Q 1*

Post-Exit Quarters

Remained Employed if Employed

Became Employed if Unemployed

2000 Q 2 to 2000 Q 3

85.4%

16.0%

2000 Q 3 to 2000 Q 4

87.1 %

17.0%

2000 Q 4 tp 2001 Q 1

85.2%

13.8%

2001 Q 1 to 2001 Q 2

86.6%

14.7%

2001 Q 2 to 2001 Q 3

85.9%

15.0%

2001 Q 3 to 2001 Q 4

86.0%

12.4%

2001 Q 4 to 2002 Q 1

84.5%

11.7%

* Based on 1 1,678adults who left TANF in the Is quarter of 1999.

Predicting Outcomes in Subsequent Years from Outcomes in the First Year After Exit. Labor force attachment begins in the first year following exit. The number of quarters worked in one year is highly correlated with the number of quarters worked in the next. (See Table 14.) Consequently,

the number of quarters worked in the first year following exit is a predictor of outcomes several years later. Table 15 shows outcomes in the fourth year after exit by number of quarters of employment in the first year after exit. The more quarters a leaver worked in the first year after she left TANF, the higher her employment rates and annual earnings were likely t o be three years later.

Table 14 Correlation of Number of Quarters of Employment
Across Years After Exit Among 1997 Leavers

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Year 1

1 .OO

Year 2

.708

1.OO

Year 3

.587

.732

1 .OO

Year 4

.529

.618

.754

Note: Correlation coefficient calculated is Pearson's r.

Year 4
1.OO
I

Table 15 Outcomes in the Fourth Year after Exit b y Number of Quarters of Employment i n the First Year After Exit

1* Year After Exit

4* Year After Exit

Quarters o f Employment

Percentage of Leavers

Employment Rate

Average Annual Earnings

Earnings Above Poverty Guide-
lines

0

25%

29 %

$1,962

5%

1

9%

58%

$4,109

9%

2

10%

69%

$5,458

14%

3

13%

77%

$7,311

20%

4

43%

88 %

$11,404

34%

As long as the number of leavers employed in all four quarters of their first year following exit continues to decline, we can expect to see employment and earnings in subsequent post-exit years decrease as well.

Leavers' Families and Poverty
The Federal Poverty Guidelines published annually are used in determining eligibility for a broad range of publicly-funded programs and services. These guidelines, which are based on family size, provide a broadly accepted and well understood benchmark against which t o measure the economic progress of TANF leavers and their families. (See Appendix A for poverty guidelines by family size
for 1998 through 2001.I
In Table 3, we saw that: within an exit cohort, earnings increase over time. That is, the longer it has been since a group left TANF, the higher the average earnings of its members. However, within a particular post-exit time period, earnings have remained about the same across exit cohorts. That pattern is a cause for concern because it means that leavers' earnings have not kept up with inflation.
The poverty guidelines increase each year t o reflect increases in the cost of living. Consequently, they provide a basis for determining the relative economic well-being of TANF leavers over time. Table 1 6 shows the percentage of employed leavers whose annual earnings exceeded the Federal Poverty Guidelines by exit cohort and number of years following exit. The proportion of leavers with earnings above the poverty guidelines has increased as the number of years following exit increased, but decreased within post-exit years with each successive cohort.

Exit Cohort
1997 1998 1999 2000

Table 16 Percentage of Leavers with Annual Earnings Exceeding the Federal Poverty Guidelines by Exit Cohort and Number of Years Following Exit

Number of Years Following Exit

1

2

3

18%

24%

29%

15%

20%

23%

15%

18%

12%

4 31 %
.

Without either an increase in the federal minimum wage or an increased commitment t o developing the skills and competitiveness of Georgia's adult TANF recipients, this pattern is unlikely t o change. However, education does make a difference. For example, among 1999 leavers employed in their second year after exit, 23 percent of the high school graduates had earnings above the poverty guidelines, compared with 9 percent of the non-graduates.
Table 17 presents the percentage of employed leavers whose annual earnings in the most recent follow-up year exceeded the poverty guidelines for 2001. In general, the longer it has been since a cohort left TANF, the more of its members have annual earnings that exceed the poverty

guidelines. However, leavers with large families not only were very unlikely t o have earnings that exceeded the poverty guidelines for their family size, but they also showed little progress over time. The pattern for leavers with large families is similar to that of leavers who returned t o TANF in their cohort's most recent follow-up year. This finding is consistent with the larger family sizes seen among long-term recipients. Residents of rural counties and leavers who did not have high school diplomas were also less likely than other leavers to have earnings that exceeded the poverty guidelines.

Table 17 Percentage of Employed Leavers with Earnings that Exceeded the Poverty Guidelines for 2001 by
Annual Cohort and Leaver Groups

Leaver Groups
Family Size 1-3 4-6 7 or More
Returned To TANF No Yes
County of Residence Rural Suburban Urban
High School Graduate No Yes
All

2000 (Year 1)

Annual Cohort and Post-Exit Year

1999 (Year 2)

1998
(Year 3)

1997 (Year 4)

15% 5% 0%

23% 8% 1%

27% 11%
2%

36 % 16%
3%

16% 2%

24% 4%

27% 5%

35% 6%

10% 18% 11%

15% 25% 18%

18% 29 % 22%

26 % 38% 31 %

6% 16%
12%

9% 23%
18%

Data Not Available

1 I
23%

31 %

We have already seen that there is a strong relationship between labor force attachment and earnings above the poverty level. Figure 9 shows the predicted probability of earnings that exceed the poverty level in the fourth year after exit as a function of family size. As the total number of quarters worked increases, the probability of exceeding the poverty level rises rapidly for leavers with small families. However, for adults with the largest families, the probability of exceeding the poverty guidelines remains very low, even when they have worked steadily over a four-year period.

Figure 9

Exceeding Poverty Guidelines by Family Size

4th Year Following Exit

10%

I

Quarters of Employment

industries Employing TANF Leavers
The UI wage record does not provide information on a worker's occupation. However, it does include the employer's Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) code. This coding system identifies types of industries within nine major industrial classifications. Although SIC codes tell us where TANF leavers are working, their usefulness as an indicator of what the leavers are doing is varied. Some occupations, such as child care worker, are strongly associated w i t h a particular industry while others, such as computer programmer, are found in many different industries. Nevertheless, industries of employment enrich our understanding of the experiences of adults who leave TANF.
Table 1 8 shows the top ten industries of employment among 2 0 0 0 TANF leavers employed in the fourth quarter of their first year following exit. Together, these industries account for 57 percent of the 18,042 employed leavers for whom valid SIC codes are available.

Table 18 Top Ten Industries of Employment for 2000 Leavers

Industry

Percent of Total Employ-
ment

Average Quarterly Earnings

Eating and Drinking Places

18%

$1,627

Personnel Supply Services*

10%

$1,848

Nursing and Personal Care Facilities

6%

$2,456

Grocery Stores

4%

$2,008

Department Stores

4%

$2,304

Hotels and Motels

4%

$1,786

Child Day Care Services

3%

$2,192

Hospitals

3%

$3,751

Elementary & Secondary Schools

3%

$2,271

Miscellaneous Business Services* *

3%

$2,133

* Includes temporary agencies and providers of contract workers. * * Includes companies providing office cleaning and security services.

All of these industries employ large numbers of low-skill workers. With the exception of those
working for hospitals, leavers employed in these industries had average quarterly earnings of less
than $2,678 - the equivalent of full time employment at minimum wage. It appears that the
typical leaver either worked part time, or did not work for the entire quarter.

Seventeen percent of the 2 0 0 0 leavers who were employed in the fourth quarter of the year following exit had earnings in that year that exceeded the poverty level. Table 1 9 lists their top ten industries of employment. These industries employed 3 7 percent of the 2,987 leavers with annual earnings above the poverty level. Six industries appear in Table 18 and Table 19, suggesting diversity in the types of employment opportunities they offer.

L
Table 19 Top Ten Industries of Employment for 2000 Leavers with
Annual Earnings Exceeding Federal Poverty Guidelines

Industry Personnel Supply Services Hospitals Eating & Drinking Establishments Nursing & Personal Care Facilities Offices & Clinics of Medical Doctors Department Stores Miscellaneous Business Services Meat Products Executive & Legislative Combined* Grocery Stores * Refers to government agencies.
i

Percent of Average OuarTotal Employ- terly Earnings
ment

6%

$4,376

6%

$5,182

5%

$4,264

4%

$4,475

3%

$5,267

3%

$4,150

3%

$3,871

2%

$3,901

2%

$5,672

2%

$4,064

Table 2 0 shows the number of 2 0 0 0 leavers employed in each of the major industrial classifications in the fourth quarter of their first year following exit. Included in this table are average quarterly earnings and the percentage of leavers with annual earnings that exceeded the poverty guidelines for their family size. This table summarizes information provided in Appendix B, in which all of the industries of employment are listed by major industrial classification. Thirty-five percent of the employed 2 0 0 0 leavers worked in wholesale and retail trade - the industry major industrial classification w i t h the lowest average quarterly earnings. Among the industrial groups employing large numbers of leavers, average earnings were highest in manufacturing and processing.

Table 20 Employment and Earnings of 200 Leavers in the 4"' Quarter After Exit by
Major Industrial Classification

Major Industrial Classification Agriculture Mining Construction Manufacturing & Processing Transportation & Utilities Wholesale & Retail Trade Finance, Insurance & Real Estate Services ,Government

Number Employed
107 4
165 1,606
479 6,336
36 1 8,151
683

Average Quarterly Earnings
$2,180 $3,536 $3,334 $3,206 $3,934 $1,973 $3,969 $2,432 $3,200

Annual Earnings Above
Poverty Guidelines
14% 75 % 26% 29% 37 %
9% 45 O h 16% 28%

Appendix A
TANF Income Ceiling and Federal Poverty Guidelines by Number in Family

Family Size 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

TANF Gross Income Ceiling
(Monthly) $435 $659 $784 $925
$1,060 $1,149 $1.243 $1,319 $1,389 $1,487 $1,591

Federal Poverty Guidelines (Annual)

1998

1999

2000

2001

$8.052 $10,860

$8,240 $11,060

$8,350 $11,250

$8,590 $11,610

$13,656 $13,880 $14,150 $14,630

$16,452 $16,700 $17,050 $17,650

$19,260 $19,520 $19,950 $20,670

$22,056 $22,340 $22,850 $23,690

$24,852 $25,160 $25,750 $29,710

$27,660 $27,980 $28,650 $32,750

$30,468 $30,800 $31,550 $35,770

533,276 $33,620 $34,450 $38,790

$36,084 $36,440 $37,350 $41.81 0

Appendix B Industry of Employment in the 4thQuarter After Exit for 2000 Leavers

Industry
313 Field Crops, Expt Cash Grains 316 Vegetables & Melons 317 Fruits & Tree Nuts 318 Horticultural Specialties

Number Employed Agriculture
3 22
7 22

Average Quarterly Earnings

2
Annual Earnings Above
Poverty Guidelines

$201 $1.347 $1,785 $2,639

0% 0% 0% 23%

Industry

Number Employed

Average Quarterly Earnings

Annual Earnings Above
Poverty Guidelines

Manufacturing & Processing

201 Meat Prod

416

$2,752

17%

203 Preserved Fruits & Vegetables

15

$2,313

0%

204 Grain Mill Prod

6

$2,988

17%

$05 Bakery Prod

33

$3,168

39%

Industry 278 Blankbooks & Bookbinding 279 Printing Trade Serv 282 Plastics Materials & Synthetics 283 Drugs

Number Employed
10 2 3 3

Average Quarterly Earnings

Annual Earnings Above
Poverty Guidelines

$4,642

70%

$3,873

100%

$3,815

33%

$4,235

67%

544 Fabricated Structural Metal Prod
346 Metal Forgings & Stampings 347 Metal Sew 348 Ordnance & Accessories
9 Misc. Fabricated Metal Prod 51 Engines & Turbines 52 Farm & Garden Machinery 353 Construction & Related Machinery 355 Special Industry Machinery 356 General Industrial Machinery 357 Computer & Offtce Equip 358 Refrigeration & Service Machinery 359 Industrial Machinery 361 Electric Distribution Equip 362 Electrical Industrial Apparatus 363 Household Appliances
Electric Liahtinn & Wirina Equip

21

$3,799

16

$4,202

6

$2,893

1

$4,984

38

$2,405

7

$2,797

14

$2,613

4

$4,088

1

$670

3

$5,278

4

$6,181

35

$4417

2

$2,502

7

$5,009

2

$4,271

51

$2,588

14

$4,138

43% 50% 17% 100% 210/c 14% 21 % 50% 0% 67% 100% 60% 0% 71 % 0% 14% 43Yi

Industry
505 Metals & Minerals, Expt Petroleum
1506 Electrical Goods
507 Hardware, Plumbing & Heating Equip
509 Misc Durable Goods 51 1 Paper & Paper Prod 12 Drugs, Proprietaries, & Sundries 13 Apparel, Piece Goods, & Notions 514 Groceries & Related Prod 515 Farrn-product Raw Materials 516 Chemicals & Allied Prod 517 Petroleum & Petroleum Prod 519 Misc. NondurableGoods 21 Lumber & Other Building Materials 23 Paint, Glass, & Wallpaper Stores 525 Hardware Stores 526 Retail Nurseries & Garden Stores 527 Mobile Home Dealers 31 Department Stores 33 Variety Stores 39 Misc. General Merchandise Stores
1 Grocery Stores 2 Meat & Fish Markets 543 Fruit & Vegetable Markets 546 Retail Bakeries P49 Misc Food Stores
k51 New & Used Car Dealers 552 Used Car Dealers 53 Auto & Home Supply Stores
54 Gasoline Service Stations
555 Boat Dealers 556 Recreational Vehicle Dealers 57 Motorcycle Dealers
1 Mens & Boys Clothing Stores 2 Womens Clothing Stores 3 Womens Accessory & Specialty Stores 564 Childrens & Infants Wear Stores 565 Family Clothing Stores 566 Shoe Stores 9 Misc. Apparel & Accessory Stores 71 Furniture& Home FurnishingsStores 72 HouseholdAppliance Stores 73 Radio, Television, & Computer Stores

Number Employed
4 13 9 42 11 15 6 23 57 9 17 89 39 38
1 3 2 2 729 104 81 806 8 11 33 2 41 9 49 31 1 4 1 1 9 44 6 5 95 27 6 34 3 22

Average Quarterly Earnings

Annual Earnings Above
Poverty Guidelines

$3,891

25%

$4,034

54%

$4.051

44%

$4,176

40%

$3,154

18%

$3,268

33%

$1,747

17%

$1,943

4%

$2,838

18%

$1,517

0%

$2,589

18%

$2,152

$3,104

$2,948

32%

$4,393

100%

$4,320

0%

$2,344

50%

$3,301

50%

$2,305

12%

$1,413

6%

$1,512

7%

$2,008

9%

$1,111

0%

$1,933

9%

$1,903

6%

$1.718

0%

$4,581

$4,327

$2,924

$2,220

8%

$2,701

0%

$4,325

0%

$1,803

0%

$2,030

33Y

$1,864

11%

$2,894

17%

$1,849

0%

$1,961

6%

$2,045

11%

$2,231

17%

$3,142

35%

$2,473

0%

$3.1 02

27%

Industry

Number Employed

Average Quarterly Earnings

Annual Earnings Above
Poverty Guidelines

581 Eating & Drinking Places

3164

$1,627

5%

591 Drug Stores & Proprietary Stores

67

$2,200

6%

593 Used Merchandise Stores

42

$2,113

14%

,594 Misc Shopping Goods Stores

89

$2,463

17%

96 Nonstore Retailers

41

$2,319

17%

98 Fuel Dealers

2

$3,886

0%

599 Retail Stores

35

$3,018

17%

All

6336

$1,973

9%

Finance, lnsurance & Real Estate

602 Commercial Banks

66

$3,817

59%

603 Savings Institutions

2

$4,986

50%

606 Credit Unions

4

$4,242

100%

809 Functions Closely Related To Banking

15

$2,751

20%

b14 Personal Credit Institutions

24

$4,036

29%

615 Business Credit Institutions

28

$431 1

50%

16 Mortgage Bankers & Brokers

15

$3,940

27%

21 Security Brokers & Dealers

1

$4,874

100%

631 Life Insurance

10

$4,030

30%

632 Medical Service & Health Insurance

22

$4,470

59%

633 Fire, Marine, & Casualty Insurance

23

$5,406

78%

1835 Surety Insurance

1

$4,638

100%

636 Title Insurance

1

$5,564

100%

637 Pension, Health, & Welfare Funds

4

$3,309

25%

641 Insurance Agents, Brokers, & Service 651 Real Estate Operators & Lessors

50

$4,830

41

$3,079

500/aJ 32%

653 Real Estate Agents & Managers

44

$3,701

34%

655 Subdividers & Developers

7

$1,725

0%

679 Misc Investing

3

$703

0%

All

36 1

$3,969

45%

Sewices

701 Hotels & Motels

698

$1,786

8%

703 Camps & Recreational Vehicle Parks

3

$2,282

0%

721 Laundry, Cleaning, & Garment Serv

173

$2,306

14%

722 Photographic Studios, Portrait

18

$2,135

1 7%

723 Beauty Shops

44

$2,715

11Y

724 Barber Shops

1

$1,195

0%

726 Funeral Service & Crematories

1

$3,192

100%

729 Misc Personal Sen,

68

$1,823

6%

731 Advertising

9

$2,034

0%

732 Credit Reporting & Collection

48

$3,794

52%

733 Mailing, Reproduction, Stenographic

22

$3,943

36%

734 Serv to Buildings

322

$1,945

9%

735 Misc EUU~RDental 8 Leasinn

15

$4.792

67%

Industry 736 Personnel Supply Sew 737 Computer & Data Processing Sew 738 Misc Business Serv 751 Automotive Rentals, No Drivers

Number Employed
1740 70
483 28

Annual

Average Earnings Above

Quarterly Earnings

Poverty Guidelines

$1,848

11%

$4,057

43%

$2,133

17%

$3,614

36%

Industry 873 Research & Testing Serv 874 Management & Public Relations 881 Private Households 899 Services All

Number Employed
6 151 39
7
8151

Average Quarterly Earnings

Annual Earnings Above
Poverty Guidelines

$1,831

17%

$2,851

24%

$2,108

5%

$1,546

14%

$2,432

16YQ