Georgia Population Projections Table of Contents
2010-2015
Georgia's 2015 Population Projections Highlights........................................ 1 Impact of Population Growth on Georgia by 2015........................................ 2 Georgia's Growth Continues.................................................................. 3 County Size and Growth....................................................................... 4 Metropolitan/Micropolitan Statistical Areas................................................ 5 Components of Growth........................................................................ 5
Natural Increase............................................................................... 5 Net Migration.................................................................................. 6 Growth by Race and Ethnicity ................................................................ 7 Language Issues.............................................................................. 9 Age Issues The Elderly Population ..................................................................... 9 The Youth Population....................................................................... 9 Georgia Residential Population Projections................................................ 11 Appendix What is the Difference Between a Population Estimate and Projection?............ 14 How is Growth Computed?................................................................ 14 What is the difference between Residential and Household Population?............ 14 What are Group Quarters and how do they affect the Population Projection?...... 14 Fertility....................................................................................... 15 Life Expectancy.............................................................................. 15 What are metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas? ............................ 15 Migration .................................................................................... 15 How do OPB projections compare to the US Census Bureau estimates and the Atlanta Regional Commission projections? ........................................... 16
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All questions and inquiries can be addressed via email to:
Robert Giacomini
Research Director
Judy Hadley
Statistical Research Analyst
Georgia 2015 Population Projections
Highlights: Forecasts based on current trends
At current growth rates, Georgia's population will grow 34% between 2000 and 2015 to 10,813,573.
Georgia will likely become the eighth largest state in the nation in 2015, moving from its current ninth place, past the State of Michigan.
Twelve counties are expected to grow by 75% or more between 2000 and 2015.
By 2015, half of the state's population will reside in 12 counties: Gwinnett, Fulton, Cobb, DeKalb, Clayton, Henry, Cherokee, Chatham, Forsyth, Hall, Richmond and Muscogee.
By 2015, one out of eleven Georgians will reside in Gwinnett County. Gwinnett County's 2015 population of 1,030,700 will be larger than the total population of the 79 smallest Georgia counties combined.
Twenty-three counties are expected to lose population between 2000 and 2015.
In 2015, seven counties are expected to have a population less than 5,000: Taliaferro, Webster, Quitman, Glascock, Clay, Stewart, and Schley.
Georgia's African American population is currently the fourth largest in the nation behind New York, Texas and Florida. By 2015, only New York will have a significantly larger African American population than Georgia.
As a percentage of the total state population, Georgia will likely have the largest percentage of African American residents among the ten largest states by 2015.
At least four out of ten people moving to Georgia are international migrants. For thirteen of the last fourteen years, domestic and international migration has accounted for more than half of Georgia's annual population growth.
By 2015, approximately 10% of Georgia's population will be Hispanic, 28% African-American/Black, 59% NonHispanic White and 3% other minorities.
Georgia's Hispanic population is expected to increase 143% between 2000 and 2015. The African-American and Non-Hispanic White populations are each expected to increase about 25% during the same time period.
In 2000, 10% or more residents speak a language other than English at home in fifteen Georgia counties. In Echols, Gwinnett, Habersham, Hall, and Whitefield Counties, one in five residents speak a foreign language at home.
By 2015 13.6% of Georgia's population will be age 65 and older. Over 80% of this age group will be NonHispanic Whites.
By 2015, one in three Georgians will be under 20 years of age. About half of this age group will likely be Hispanic, African American or other minorities.
Just over half of Georgia's 2015 population will be considered of working age (20-64). This population of approximately 5 1/2 million will likely be comprised of 59% White, 9% Hispanic and 32% African American and other minorities.
The Governor's Office of Planning and Budget (OPB) periodically produces population projections for the state and each county.
OPB, PPT
5/11/2005
Page 1
Impact of Population Growth on Georgia by 2015
YOUTH
Georgia will gain more than 1.25 million children (under age 20) between 2000 and 2015.
The state currently spends approximately $4,581 on each new student for education.
In current dollars, an increase in students in grades K-12 of approximately 1 million would cost the state an additional $4.6 billion annually at current funding levels.
One million new students would require almost 44,000 new classrooms to be constructed with an average class size of 23.
The state currently spends $5,236 for each new child in construction costs.
In current dollars, building classrooms for one million new students would cost $5.3 billion.
The ELDERLY
Between 2000 and 2015, the highest growth rate in the 65 and older category will be among those citizens 85 and older. This population should number more than 290,000 in 2015, a 341% growth over 2000.
Over the next decade the baby boom generation with enter their retirement years. This will significantly change the demand for both private and government services.
The population 85 and older requires significantly more health services than the population 65 to 84. The cost of medical care increases greatly in the years just prior to death.
MOTOR VEHICLES
Georgia's increasing population will also place additional demands on the state infrastructure. The number of vehicles on the state highways could increase from 7.3 million in 2000 to at least 9 million in 2015.
If motor vehicles increase at rates similar to those in the 1990s, the number could be as much as 10 million vehicles in Georgia.
The number of vehicles traveling on each lane mile of freeway in Atlanta could increase from 18,700 per day to almost 25,000 per day, if vehicle travel increases as fast as the population.
CORRECTIONAL FACILITIES
At current incarceration rates, the state's prison population will increase from 43,270 in 2000 to 53,291 in 2015.
Current daily cost is approximately $50 per prisoner or about $18,250 a year. An additional 10,000 prisoners would cost the state $182,500,000 annually.
REPRESENTATION
Depending on total population growth nationwide and Georgia's population share compared to other states, Georgia may pick up an additional congressional seat following the 2010 Census.
OPB, PPT
5/11/2005
Page 2
Georgia's Growth Continues
Georgia's resident population increased 26% between 1990 and 2000. This was the fastest growth of any decade this century. Georgia's population more than doubled between 1950 and 2000, increasing 256%.
Georgia's Population 1900 - 2000 and 2000 - 2015 (Projected)
12,000,000 10,000,000
8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000
0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 Proj Proj OPB OPB
In spite of the recession of the past few years, Georgia's growth has continued. The US Census Bureau estimates that Georgia grew by more than 642,930 people between 2000 and 2004, more than all but three states (California, Florida and Texas). Georgia's growth rate of 7.9 percent between 2000 and 2004 was the fifth fastest growing state in the nation.i
The US Census Bureau estimated that Georgia had an average population increase of about 2% per year between 2000 and 2004 or about 160,700 people per year. This rate would give Georgia an estimated growth of 20% between 2000 and 2010.
Georgia and US Population Characteristics US Census Bureau Estimates 2003
Population
Georgia
U.S.
State Rank
Population 2003 Census Estimates
8,676,460 290,788,976
9
% of Population Age 17 and Under
26.4%
25.0%
7
% of Population 65 and Older
9.6%
12.4%
48
Percentage of Population by Race
% of PopulationAfrican American/Black
28.7%
12.8%
5
% of Population Asian/Pacific Islander
2.5%
4.3%
21
% of Population All Other/Multiple Races
1.3%
2.4%
43
% of Population Hispanic/Latino
6.2%
13.7%
22
% of Population Non-Hispanic White
61.8%
67.9%
42
*Rank is based on 1 being the highest using US Census 2000-2004 Estimates
OPB, PPT
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County Size and Growth
Fastest Growing Counties Twelve counties are expected to increase their residential population by 75% or more between 2000 and 2015: Forsyth:137%, Henry:135%, Newton:121%, Paulding:117%, Cherokee:91%, Lee:91%, Pickens:90%, Butts:88%, Dawson:87%, Barrow:84%, Walton:75% and Gwinnett:75%.
An additional 36 counties will grow more than 34% between 2000 and 2015.
According to the Census Bureau, Georgia had 5 of the top 10 fastest growing counties in the US for April 1 2000 to July 1 2003. There are more than 3,000 counties in the US. Georgia also had 20 of the top 100 fastest growing counties for this time period. In addition to the twelve counties listed above, the US Census Bureau's list of Georgia's 20 fastest growing counties included Bryan, Chattahoochee, Carroll, Coweta, Effingham, Hall, Jackson and White Counties.ii
Counties Losing Population Twenty-three counties are expected to lose population between 2000 and 2015. Taliaferro, Stewart, Randolph, Calhoun, Warren, Quitman, Webster, and Liberty counties are expected to lose more than 10% of their residential population between 2000 and 2015. It is quite possible that troop movement from the military base influences the projected decrease in Liberty County's populationiii.
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Largest County Populations By 2015, half of the state's population will reside in 12 counties: Gwinnett, Fulton, Cobb, DeKalb, Clayton, Henry, Cherokee, Chatham, Forsyth, Hall, Richmond and Muscogee. 57% of Georgians will live in the 28 county metropolitan Atlanta area. Roughly 75% of the state's population will reside in 21% of the state's total land area.
Smallest County Populations 100 Georgia counties have populations less than 35,000 but cover 62% of the total land area. To place this in perspective, Turner Field in Atlanta could hold the entire population of any of the smallest 100 counties.
Population Density In 2000, Georgia had a population density of 141 people per square land mile. Five Georgia counties have 1,000 people or more per square land mile: Dekalb, Fulton, Clayton, Cobb and Gwinnett. Of the ten largest states in population, only Texas will have a lower population density than Georgia. In the Southeast, Florida, North Carolina and Virginia will likely continue to have higher populations per square mile than Georgia.
By 2015, Georgia is expected to have 187 people per square land mile. Nine counties are expected to have 1,000 people or more per square land mile by 2015, adding Forsyth County to the above list of five. In spite of Gwinnett County's rapid growth, it will not have the highest population density. DeKalb, Clayton and Cobb Counties are all expected to have more people per square mile of land area.
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OPB, PPT
A complete table of population projections for Georgia Counties may be found on page 11 of this report.
5/11/2005
Page 4
Metropolitan / Micropolitan Statistical Areas
According to the February 2004 US Census Bureau listing, Georgia now has 15 Metropolitan Statistical Areas. Each metropolitan statistical area must have at least one urbanized area of 50,000 or more inhabitants. Georgia also has 28 micropolitan statistical areas, which have at least one urban cluster of at least 10,000 but less than 50,000 population. Additional "outlying counties" are included in the statistical area if they meet specified requirements of commuting to or from the central counties. iv
As areas grow toward each other, the area may become a "Combined Statistical Area". Georgia has 5 Combined Statistical Areas: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Gainesville GA-AL, Chattanooga-Cleveland-Athens TN-GA, ColumbusAuburn-Opelika GA-AL, Macon-Warner Robins-Fort Valley, and Savannah-Hinesville-Fort Stewart.
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Components of Growth
An area's population grows by natural increase and net migration. With the exception of 2003, less than half of Georgia's growth has been due to natural increase (more births than deaths). The relative decline in domestic migration may be due in part to the economic recession.
Components of Georgia Growth 1991-2004
1991
1996 2001 2002 2003 2004
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90% 100%
Natural Increase Domestic Migration International Migration
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000
0
Natural Increase 1990-2003
OPB, PPT
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Natural increase
Georgia's natural increase has been rising since the mid-1990s. Natural increase is computed as births minus deaths.
There are usually slightly more than two births for each death. However, there are several Georgia counties that have more deaths than births.
According to Georgia Vital Records, Brooks, Fannin, Glascock, Lincoln, Randolph, Stewart, Talbot, Taliaferro, Towns, Union, Upson and Webster Counties all had more deaths than births between 2000 and 2003.
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Page 5
Net migration
Net migration is the
Net Migration by Place of Origin - Georgia 1991-2004
number of people 100%
moving into the area
90%
minus the number of
80%
people moving out of an
70%
area.
60%
In the last four years only three states,
50% 40%
Arizona, Florida, and
30%
Nevada, have gained
20% 10%
more people from other
0%
states than Georgia.
1991
1996
2001
2002
2003
2004
Georgia is now considered one of
% Domestic % International
America's international
gateways. At least four out of ten people moving to Georgia are international migrants. An estimated yearly
average of 37,500 people moved to Georgia from another country between 2001 and 2004.
This ranks Georgia as the seventh most popular state for international migrants. In the Southeast only Florida has higher migration levels.
This number does not capture the number of foreigners who enter the United States at a different gateway and then move to Georgia at a later time. For example, the person may enter the country in New York, California, or Texas and then move to Georgia.
The graph above also indicates how domestic migration slowed during the recession. While not back to the 2001 numbers, the 2004 estimated domestic migration is considerably higher than it was in 2003.
Census estimates do not allow for detailed analysis on the region of origin of migrants. However, Census 2000 provides more detailed information. The following table shows the race and Hispanic origin of both domestic and international migrants to Georgia between 1995 and 2000.
Hispanics, Blacks and Asians were a majority of both domestic and international migrants during this period and constituted two out of every three persons moving into the state.
Migration to Georgia: 1995-2000
All
35.03%
30.37%
7.71%
26.89%
International
23.98%
18.51%
12.60%
44.91%
Domestic
0%
OPB, PPT
42.8%
38.7%
4.3% 14.2%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Non Hispanic White
African American / Black
Asian
5/11/2005
80%
90%
Hispanic
Page 6
100%
Growth by Race and Ethnicity
In the following discussion White, African Americans, and other minority projections do not include Hispanics. Hispanics may be of any race. Over 90% of Non-Whites are African Americans or Black. The remainders are Asians, Alaskan Natives, American Indians and Pacific Islanders. At the 2000 Census, the majority of Georgia's resident population was Non-Hispanic White. This is expected to remain true for 2015. In the 2015 OPB population projections, 134 counties are expected to have 50% or more White residents. Twenty counties are expected to have 50% or more African American or other non-white residents, and 4 counties are expected to have 20% or more Hispanic residents.
By 2015, the OPB projections indicate that about 40% of the resident population will be minority that is either non-white or Hispanic.
The US Census Bureau's 2003 estimates have Georgia's Hispanic population growing by 24 percent between 2000 and 2003, from 435,277 to 541,123. Georgia ranks 10th among the 50 States in the percentage of minority residents (38%).
2000-2015 Georgia Residential Population by Race/Ethnicity
2000 Census
Race / Ethnicity % 2000
2010 Projection
Race / Ethnicity % 2010
2015 Projection
White
5,128,663
African American &
Other Minorities
2,623,728
62.6% 32.0%
5,944,068 3,029,371
60.3% 30.7%
6,424,856 3,329,862
Hispanic Any Race
Totals
434,062 8,186,453
5.3% 100.0%
891,531 9,864,970
9.0% 100.0%
1,058,855 10,813,573
Race / Ethnicity % 2015
59.4%
30.8%
9.8% 100.0%
The percentage of Hispanics in Georgia's 2015 resident population is expected to grow from 5.3% to 9.8%. The number of Whites, African Americans, and other minorities will also grow but their percentage of the total population will drop about 2% each.
The number of Whites, African Americans, and other minorities will increase about 25% each between 2000 and 2015. However, the number of Hispanics is expected to increase about 143% between 2000 and 2015.
2000-2015 Georgia Residential Population Numeric Growth of Race/Ethnic Groups
Numeric Growth 2000 - 2010
% Growth 2000 - 2010
Numeric Growth 2000 - 2015
% Growth 2000 - 2015
White African American & Other Minorities
Hispanic Any Race
Total
815,405 405,643 457,469 1,678,517
15.9% 15.5% 105.4% 20.5%
1,296,193 706,134 624,793
2,627,120
25.3% 26.9% 143.9% 32.1%
OPB, PPT
5/11/2005
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Georgia 2015 Population Projection Across Age Group
Age < 20 Age 20-64 Age 65 +
0%
20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
White African American & other Minority Hispanic Any Race
The age spread is not uniform across the racial/ethnic groups. The White population has a lower percentage of youth (under 20 years of age) and a higher percentage of elderly (age 65 and older) than the other two groups.
Age Group
Race / Ethnicity
Age < 20 Age 20-64 Age 65+
Total
Age Group Shift By Race/Ethnicity 2000 - 2015
2000
2015
2000
2015
2000
White
26.1% 62.0% 11.9%
White
29.1% 51.9% 19.1%
African American African American & Other Minority & Other Minority
35.1%
39.6%
58.6%
54.2%
6.3%
6.2%
Hispanic
36.3% 61.7%
1.9%
100.0% 100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
2015
Hispanic
46.1% 50.6%
3.3% 100.0%
Across all race and ethnic groups, the percentage of the working age population will decline as the percentage of youth and elderly increase.
At the 2000 Census, the genders were almost equal in the White population. Females out numbered males in African American and other minority populations. Hispanic males far outnumbered the Hispanic females. In 2000, 59% of Hispanics were male. However the proportion as well as the number of Hispanic females is expected to increase. By 2015, about 43% of Hispanics are expected to be female.
Whites by Gender 2000 Census
Females (50.7%) Males (49.3%)
African Americans & Other Minorities by Gender 2000
Census
Females (52.5%) Males (47.5%)
Hispanics by Gender 2000 Census
Females (41.0%) Males (59.0%)
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Language Issues English as a Second Language is becoming more prevalent as Georgia becomes more and more diverse. 10% or more residents in 15 Georgia counties speak a language other than English at home. In Echols, Gwinnett, Habersham, Hall, and Whitefield Counties, one in five residents speak a foreign language at home. This does not necessarily mean that they are not proficient in English.
These counties are Atkinson (16%), Chattahoochee (14%), Clarke (12%), Colquitt (11%), Clayton (15%), Cobb (15%), DeKalb (17%), Echols (22%), Fulton (13%), Gwinnett (21%), Habersham (21%), Hall (21%), Liberty (13%), Toombs (10%) and Whitfield (22%).
The majority of these residents speak Spanish but many other languages are also represented. Some school systems have as many as 30 languages being spoken at one school.
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Age
The Elderly Population
Georgia has a lower percentage of the population aged 65 and over than all but two states. The 2004 US Census Bureau estimates that 12.4% of the population is age 65 and over. The 2004 US Census Bureau estimates have 9.6% of Georgia residents at age 65 and over.
The 2015 OPB population projection expects that 13.6% of the state residents will be age 65 and older. Thirtyfive counties are expected to have at least 20% of their county population age 65 or older. Six counties are expected to have at least 25% of their county population age 65 or older.
There are 3 major concentrations of elderly population. The north Georgia mountains, the lower southwest counties along the state line and central Georgia counties which include Taliaferro, Wilkes, Lincoln, Greene, and Putnam Counties.
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The Youth Population
Georgia has a slightly higher percentage of young persons age 19 and under than the national average. In 2004, an estimated 25% of the nation was under age 20 while 26% of Georgia residents were estimated to be under age 20 and under.
The 2015 OPB population projection expects 34% of Georgia residents to be under age 20. Twenty-seven counties are expected to have 35% or more young people. Seven counties are expected the have 37% or more young people. Note that college students and young military personnel influence the resident populations in some counties. Additionally, many immigrants are young and just starting their families. Counties with large immigrant populations are quite likely to see an increase in the number of county births.
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OPB, PPT
5/11/2005
Page 9
Georgia Residential Population Projections
Georgia Appling Atkinson Bacon Baker Baldwin Banks Barrow Bartow Ben Hill Berrien Bibb Bleckley Brantley Brooks Bryan Bulloch Burke Butts Calhoun Camden Candler Carroll Catoosa Charlton Chatham Chattahoochee Chattooga Cherokee Clarke Clay Clayton Clinch Cobb Coffee Colquitt Columbia Cook Coweta Crawford Crisp Dade Dawson Decatur
OPB, PPT
Georgia 2010-2015 Residential Population Projection Alphabetic County List
2000 Residential
Census
2010 Residential Projection
2015 Household Projection
Group Quarters Projection
2015 Residential Projection
8,186,453 17,419 7,609 10,103 4,074 44,700 14,422 46,144 76,019 17,484 16,235
153,887 11,666 14,629 16,450 23,417 55,983 22,243 19,522
6,320 43,664 9,577 87,268 53,282 10,282 232,048 14,882 25,470 141,903 101,489 3,357 236,517
6,878 607,751
37,413 42,053 89,288 15,771 89,215 12,495 21,996 15,154 15,999 28,240
9,864,970 18,724 8,755 10,263 4,848 46,063 18,006 70,553
105,241 16,655 17,133
154,889 12,483 16,921 15,819 33,135 64,275 24,561 31,817
5,715 49,896 11,226 125,109 69,356 12,142 244,446 23,556 28,722 224,238 110,647 3,394 314,086
7,327 735,922
42,743 45,442 116,642 16,827 129,899 12,829 21,983 17,582 24,757 28,281
10,554,171 19,112 9,317 10,159 5,301 38,326 20,047 84,176
121,005 16,003 17,460
149,678 12,130 18,193 15,023 38,603 64,335 25,471 30,930
4,059 50,597 11,744 140,966 78,280 11,336 239,959 15,481 28,952 270,115 108,463 3,366 354,370 7,096 801,883 43,416 45,684 131,578 17,120 152,694 12,890 21,552 18,053 29,736 27,699
259,402 282 41 162 14
8,188 30 487 950 367 145
5,562 750 81 482 143
3,900 294
5,830 1,319 2,227
423 3,200
450 1,600 9,621 10,000 1,670 1,400 7,407
52 3,152
425 9,246 1,942 1,445
725 262 755 119 467 878 122 643
10,813,573 19,394 9,358 10,321 5,315 46,514 20,077 84,663
121,955 16,370 17,605
155,240 12,880 18,274 15,505 38,746 68,235 25,765 36,760 5,378 52,824 12,167
144,166 78,730 12,936
249,580 25,481 30,622
271,515 115,870
3,418 357,522
7,521 811,129
45,358 47,129 132,303 17,382 153,449 13,009 22,019 18,931 29,858 28,342
2000-2015 Projected Residential Growth %
32.1% 11.3% 23.0% 2.2% 30.5% 4.1% 39.2% 83.5% 60.4% -6.4% 8.4% 0.9% 10.4% 24.9% -5.7% 65.5% 21.9% 15.8% 88.3% -14.9% 21.0% 27.0% 65.2% 47.8% 25.8% 7.6% 71.2% 20.2% 91.3% 14.2% 1.8% 51.2% 9.3% 33.5% 21.2% 12.1% 48.2% 10.2% 72.0% 4.1% 0.1% 24.9% 86.6% 0.4%
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Georgia Residential Population Projections
DeKalb Dodge Dooly Dougherty Douglas Early Echols Effingham Elbert Emanuel Evans Fannin Fayette Floyd Forsyth Franklin Fulton Gilmer Glascock Glynn Gordon Grady Greene Gwinnett Habersham Hall Hancock Haralson Harris Hart Heard Henry Houston Irwin Jackson Jasper Jeff Davis Jefferson Jenkins Johnson Jones Lamar Lanier Laurens Lee Liberty Lincoln
2000 Residential
Census
665,865 19,171 11,525 96,065 92,174 12,354
3,754 37,535 20,511 21,837 10,495 19,798 91,263 90,565 98,407 20,285 816,006 23,456
2,556 67,568 44,104 23,659 14,406 588,448 35,902 139,277 10,076 25,690 23,695 22,997 11,012 119,341 110,765 9,931 41,589 11,426 12,684 17,266 8,575 8,560 23,639 15,912
7,241 44,874 24,757 61,610 8,348
OPB, PPT
2010 Residential Projection
711,604 20,204 11,606 94,404 125,065 11,978
4,585 54,807 20,966 21,983 13,315 24,626 116,659 100,288 183,430 23,280 826,843 31,752
2,822 76,339 56,512 25,435 17,248 870,611 44,362 194,861 11,221 31,596 30,975 24,458 11,484 221,174 142,626 10,413 59,781 15,212 13,574 16,330 9,175 9,587 29,634 17,723
7,665 49,790 36,790 55,431 8,944
5/11/2005
2015 Household Projection
711,451 18,861 10,312 88,968 142,885 11,603
5,061 64,619 20,982 21,248 14,282 27,361 130,880 101,270 232,229 24,493 802,464 36,367
2,889 79,495 63,092 26,086 18,711 1,024,006 47,230 223,732 8,257 34,605 34,981 24,801 11,674 279,753 158,029 10,317 69,494 17,362 13,943 15,563 9,365 8,278 32,706 17,974 7,629 51,373 46,392 49,097 9,247
Group Quarters Projection
14,607 1,841 1,310 4,639 1,000
250 0
255 252 814 623 151 612 4,200 719 564 30,287 202 104 1,627 427 284 208 6,694 1,955 2,501 2,900 400 249 534 109 933 2,669 369 850 69 92 474 136 1,430 398 815 268 1,200 841 5,100 74
2015 Residential Projection
726,058 20,702 11,622 93,607
143,885 11,853 5,061 64,874 21,234 22,062 14,905 27,512
131,492 105,470 232,948
25,057 832,751
36,569 2,993 81,122 63,519 26,370 18,919 1,030,700 49,185 226,233 11,157 35,005 35,230 25,335 11,783 280,686 160,698 10,686 70,344 17,431 14,035 16,037 9,501 9,708 33,104 18,789 7,897 52,573 47,233 54,197 9,321
Page 11
2000-2015 Projected Residential Growth %
9.0% 8.0% 0.8% -2.6% 56.1% -4.1% 34.8% 72.8% 3.5% 1.0% 42.0% 39.0% 44.1% 16.5% 136.7% 23.5% 2.1% 55.9% 17.1% 20.1% 44.0% 11.5% 31.3% 75.2% 37.0% 62.4% 10.7% 36.3% 48.7% 10.2% 7.0% 135.2% 45.1% 7.6% 69.1% 52.6% 10.7% -7.1% 10.8% 13.4% 40.0% 18.1% 9.1% 17.2% 90.8% -12.0% 11.7%
Georgia Residential Population Projections
Long Lowndes Lumpkin Macon Madison Marion McDuffie McIntosh Meriwether Miller Mitchell Monroe Montgomery Morgan Murray Muscogee Newton Oconee Oglethorpe Paulding Peach Pickens Pierce Pike Polk Pulaski Putnam Quitman Rabun Randolph Richmond Rockdale Schley Screven Seminole Spalding Stephens Stewart Sumter Talbot Taliaferro Tattnall Taylor Telfair Terrell Thomas Tift
OPB, PPT
2000 Residential
Census
10,304 92,115 21,016 14,074 25,730 7,144 21,231 10,847 22,534 6,383 23,932 21,757 8,270 15,457 36,506 186,291 62,001 26,225 12,635 81,678 23,668 22,983 15,636 13,688 38,127 9,588 18,812 2,598 15,050 7,791 199,775 70,111 3,766 15,374 9,369 58,417 25,435
5,252 33,200
6,498 2,077 22,305 8,815 11,794 10,970 42,737 38,407
2010 Residential Projection
11,881 100,565 28,222 14,455 30,358
7,258 21,939 11,427 23,223
6,200 23,774 26,788 10,159 19,798 46,293 183,614 109,345 32,402 15,051 142,388 25,960 36,039 17,961 18,072 43,643 10,162 21,505 2,242 17,598 6,628 193,914 86,162 4,490 15,576 9,527 65,238 25,739 4,450 32,954 6,693 1,708 23,094 9,120 11,076 10,566 46,235 42,261
5/11/2005
2015 Household Projection
12,729 97,780 30,356 12,884 32,830 7,235 21,932 11,719 23,083 5,948 21,828 28,908 9,786 22,124 51,608 172,878 135,750 36,852 16,299 176,783 26,193 43,524 19,161 20,378 45,832 9,304 22,770 2,234 19,066 6,103 180,454 95,599 4,900 15,212 9,418 68,923 25,085
3,931 31,247
6,798 1,621 19,749 8,809 9,389 10,155 46,825 42,907
Group Quarters Projection
0 6,987 1,447 1,500
162 86 341 65 490 140 1,918 750 1,200 194 214 9,489 1,200 246 138 722 1,023 227 130 276 862 1,165 268
0 275 368 11,109 1,109
9 492 314 1,040 863 273 1,648 18
23 3,800
464 1,461
214 1,286 1,445
2015 Residential Projection
12,729 104,767
31,803 14,384 32,992 7,321 22,273 11,784 23,573 6,088 23,746 29,658 10,986 22,318 51,822 182,367 136,950 37,098 16,437 177,505 27,216 43,751 19,291 20,654 46,694 10,469 23,038 2,234 19,341 6,471 191,563 96,708 4,909 15,704 9,732 69,963 25,948 4,204 32,895 6,816 1,644 23,549 9,273 10,850 10,369 48,111 44,352
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2000-2015 Projected Residential Growth %
23.5% 13.7% 51.3% 2.2% 28.2% 2.5% 4.9% 8.6% 4.6% -4.6% -0.8% 36.3% 32.8% 44.4% 42.0% -2.1% 120.9% 41.5% 30.1% 117.3% 15.0% 90.4% 23.4% 50.9% 22.5% 9.2% 22.5% -14.0% 28.5% -16.9% -4.1% 37.9% 30.4% 2.1% 3.9% 19.8% 2.0% -20.0% -0.9% 4.9% -20.8% 5.6% 5.2% -8.0% -5.5% 12.6% 15.5%
Georgia Residential Population Projections
2000 Residential
Census
2010 Residential Projection
2015 Household Projection
Group Quarters Projection
2015 Residential Projection
2000-2015 Projected Residential Growth %
Toombs
26,067
27,489
27,777
442
28,219
8.3%
Towns Treutlen Troup
9,319 6,854 58,779
11,469 7,691
63,974
12,268 7,023
65,039
650 875 1,677
12,918 7,898 66,716
38.6% 15.2% 13.5%
Turner Twiggs
9,504 10,590
9,708 10,224
9,666 10,166
173
9,839
3.5%
121
10,287
-2.9%
Union Upson
17,289 27,597
23,349 28,849
26,562 29,182
462
27,024
56.3%
454
29,636
7.4%
Walker Walton
61,053 60,687
66,425 89,688
68,201 105,751
1,223 700
69,424 106,451
13.7% 75.4%
Ware Warren
35,483 6,336
36,408 5,651
33,504 5,298
3,000 114
36,504 5,412
2.9% -14.6%
Washington Wayne Webster
21,176 26,565 2,390
20,172 29,960 2,071
18,616 29,324 2,090
1,473 2,400
2
20,089 31,724 2,092
-5.1% 19.4% -12.5%
Wheeler White
6,179 19,944
8,096 29,343
7,438 34,356
1,526 531
8,964 34,887
45.1% 74.9%
Whitfield Wilcox
83,525 8,577
96,930 9,061
103,578 7,659
781 1,604
104,359 9,263
24.9% 8.0%
Wilkes Wilkinson
10,687 10,220
10,678 10,345
10,538 10,291
145
10,683
0.0%
92
10,383
1.6%
Worth
21,967
21,560
21,170
212
21,382
Source: Georgia Governor's Office of Planning and Budget 2015 Population Projections as of 12/04
-2.7%
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Appendix
What is the Difference Between a Population Estimate and a Population Projection?
Estimates usually are for the present and the past, while projections are estimates of the population for future dates. This document includes some US Census Bureau population estimate data as well as the OPB 2010-2015 population projections.
How is Growth Computed?
The 2010-2015 OPB population projections by age, race, and sex for Georgia counties were developed using the cohort-survival model (also known as the cohort-component model). The method uses the following demographic equation:
Population 1 = Population 0 + Births - Deaths + Net Migration 2015 population = 2000 population + expected births - expected deaths + expected migration
The existing OPB population projections were updated with the most recent census data as well as the actual birth and death data for 1990 through 2003. Additionally, a comparison was made to the US Census 2003 population estimates, which include the most recent migration data.v
Projections were produced for males and females using 3 racial/ethnic groupings, non-Hispanic Whites, nonHispanic Non-Whites and Hispanics of any race. The 2010-2015 population projection is the first time that OPB has produced Hispanic population projections.
What is the difference between residential and household populations? Household population
The household population is the population residing in homes, apartments and other normal family dwellings. The household population is computed first, and then the group quarters population is added to create the resident population.
Resident population The residential population is the household population plus the group quarters population.
What are Group Quarters and how do they affect the population projections?
The group quarters population is the population residing in college dorms, nursing homes, prisons, military barracks and other non-household settings. The group quarters population for a county does not usually vary much unless a new facility is built, the existing facility capacity is changed or a facility closes.
The group quarters population is expected to grow by at least 25,580 between 2000 and 2015. The change includes some expected construction and some counting changes. No doubt, other construction will be announced later in the decade and increase this estimate.vi OPB surveys the group quarters facilities annually and reports the facility population to the US Census Bureau. This annual report enables the US Census Bureau to track the facility changes between the decennial census reports.
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5/11/2005
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Fertility
For fertility calculations, women aged 1544 years are considered of childbearing age. Fertility rates vary considerably by race and ethnicity.
Fertility rate = number or births of a specific race/ethnicity / number of women age 14-44 of that specific race/ethnicity.
The fertility rates used in these projections are a combination of the national fertility rates published by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) and a computed county fertility rate.
For more details, see the August 2003 NCHS report: New Report Revises Birth and Fertility Rates for the 1990s Uses 2000 Census Population Estimates to Improve Accuracy http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/03facts/revisesrates.htm.
Life expectancy
The life expectancy/survival rates used in this projection are taken from those published by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). For more details, see the NCHS Mortality Tables website: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/datawh/statab/unpubd/mortabs.htm.
What are metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas?
Metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas are metropolitan areas (MAs) that are not closely associated with other MAs. These areas typically are surrounded by nonmetropolitan counties.
Each metropolitan statistical area must have at least one urbanized area of 50,000 or more inhabitants. Each micropolitan statistical area must have at least one urban cluster of at least 10,000 but less than 50,000 population. Additional "outlying counties" are included in the statistical area if they meet specified requirements of commuting to or from the central counties. vii
Migration
The population is classified as movers or non-movers depending on where they move. If a family moves to a different home within the same county, they are non-movers for migration calculations (intra-county). If they move across county lines, they are movers at the county level but non-movers at the state level (inter-county). If they move to another state, they are movers at both state and county levels (inter-state and inter-county).
Internal or domestic migration calculates people who move within the United States. International migration calculates people who move into or away from the United States.
One of the main reasons people move to an area is for work. The job market has suffered during the 2001-2003 recession years. It is probable that as the job market picks up, there will be increased migration into Georgia.
The US Census Bureau supplies in-migration and out-migration data. They collect data from a variety of sources including the Internal Revenue Service and the Immigration and Naturalization Service. The estimated yearly migration rate in this projection is an average of the net county migration from 2000 to 2003. There are no age/race/sex details in the Census migration data; therefore it is distributed in each county according to that county's characteristics.
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How do the OPB projections compare to the US Census estimates and the Atlanta Regional Commission projections?
The OPB population projections are in line with the US Census Bureau estimates for 8 of the 10 Atlanta Regional Commission (ARC) counties. The OPB projections are higher than the US Census Bureau estimates for Fulton and DeKalb counties.
The ARC projections are generally lower than either the OPB projections or the US Census Bureau estimates. ARC has a much higher projections for Fulton County than either the OPB projections or the US Census Bureau estimates. The ARC DeKalb County projection is in line with the OPB DeKalb County Projection.
The OPB projections, the US Census estimates and the Atlanta Regional Commission projections all use different methodology. They will never have an exact match. There are many different calculations done by each group. For example, the OPB population projection primarily uses the cohort component method. The US Census estimates include residuals in addition to the cohort component method to make the total estimate add up to a preset national total. The Atlanta Regional Commission projection uses an econometric module to produce employment data in addition to the cohort component method.
i http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/population/003153.html ii CB04-57 US Census Bureau, April 4, 2004. Data for 2004 county growth is not available at this time. http://www.census.gov/PressRelease/www/releases/archives/population/001758.html iii The US Census Bureau shows a high yearly out-migration for Liberty County population. It appears that the military personnel are being counted when they move out but not when they move in. The Census Bureau plans to change the way migration is calculated before the 2010 census. It is expected that this change will influence future net migration estimates. iv OMB BULLETIN NO. 04-03 Feb. 2004, http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/bulletins/b03-04_attach.pdf. v The 2001-2003 data used for the 2010 projection reflects the recent slow economy. If there were a strong economic recovery in the next few years, the population projections would change. vi
GQ note: Fort Benning has barracks in both Muscogee and Chattahoochee Counties. They report a higher occupancy to OPB than the US Census Bureau uses. OPB is using the larger figure. In general, the group quarters population is constant unless and new facility is opened or closed. It is impossible to determine future development at this time. Therefore, the 2010 group quarters number is being carried forward to 2015. vii US Census Bureau website Metropolitan Statistical Area, http://www.census.gov/geo/www/cob/ma_metadata.html#msa.
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