RECEIVED
OCT 111977
DOCUMENTS UGA LIBRARIES

State Data Center OFFICE OF PLANNING & BUDGET 270 Washington St., S.W., Atlanta, Georgia 30334
Telephone (404) 656-2191.

George Busbee Governor

Prepared by Tom Wagner

. Clark T. Stevens Director

September 1977

The preparation of this document was financed in part through a comprehensive planning grant from the Department of Housing and Urban Development. CPA-GA-04-00-1012

Contents

INTRODUCTION

1

BASELINE PROJECTIONS

DEFINITION

2

METHODOLOGY OF POPULATION

PROJECTIONS

3

POPULATION PROJECTIONS BY

COUNTIES

5

MAP OF COUNTIES WITH A PROJECTED

POPULATION 35,000 AND OVER -1980

11

MAP OF COUNTI ES WITH A PROJECTED

POPULATION 35,000 AND OVER - 2000

12

I. Introduction The population projections in this report represent conditional forecasts of the future.
Because the future is unknown to everyone, extensions of past demographic relationships must be used to help forecast the future. The choice of past relationships to be extended and those believed to have future relevance is what distinguishes these projections from those of other agencies and individuals. Every effort was made to maintain maximum objectivity in selecting assumptions upon which these projections are based.
The primary purpose of these projections is to stimulate analysis and alternative assumptions, and to provide planners with a starting point from which to test new variables. Also, this report provides interested users with a set of Statewide projections incorporating a standard methodology for all counties in Georgia.
These projections are not intended to be a goal for any county or area, nor are they intended to constrain an area. They are intended to provide insight to county and municipal leaden as to what could occur in the absence of any major change in emphasis on their part.
In terms of the accuracy of these projections two points must be emphasized. The longer the period of time between the present and the projected year, the greater the possibility of inaccuracy. Also, the larger the area and number of people concerned the more accurate the projections should be.
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1

II. Baseline Projections The projections included in this document are best described as baseline projections.
In this context baseline denotes an estimate of what can be expected if there are no substantial changes. Baseline projections are valuable in the following ways:
1) Identifying economic problems of an area. 2) Illuminating problems relating to crime, health, environment, tax structure, etc. 3) Showing future demand on resources. 4) Policy planning and program and project evaluation purposes. The use of baseline projections can be greatly enhanced by adjusted or alternative projections. For example, a planner may wish to alter the projections slightly to determine demand on area resources such as water. However, it should be understood by all that these projections are delicately balanced among areas so that alteration of one area cannot be attempted .without determining its effect on other areas of the State. For example, for the purpose of federal grant applications, the population projections for Georgia cannot have more people than is projected in the Bureau of Economic Analysis' national model unless other states' projections are decreased by that number of people. Similarly, if the population projection of one county in Georgia is increased, then the projections of other counties must be decreased.
2

III. Methodology
Two models were utilized in making these projections. The first model was comprised of births, deaths, auto registrations, and school enrollment (gr~des 1-8 public and private) for the period 1960-1976. The above variables, aggregated by APDC and county, were entered into a regression model as independent variables with population as the dependent variable. A regression equation was calculated for each of the eighteen APDCs and each of the one hundred fifty-nine counties in Georgia. Greater weight was placed on data for the period 1970-1976. This was particularly important for counties which have reversed their population trend since 1960.
The independent variables were projected forward (1980-2010) using a least squares technique. After projecting the independent variables, they were entered into the APDC regression equation and a total population for each APDC was calculated. The counties were projected in the same manner as the APDCs.
The second model was comprised of total covered employment and total retail sales for the period 1964-1974. The above variables were aggregated by APDC and the same procedure was followed~"'8S described in the first model.
The two approaches were averaged (the first model was weighted 75% and the second model 25%), and a total projected population for each APDC and county was calculated. Each APDC's total population was calculated as a percentage of the total state population which was controlled to the OBERS' state total for Georgia. The OBERS state total was
, A major output of a program of economic measurement, analysis and projection conducted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), formerly the Office of Business Economics (OBE), U. S. Department of Commerce, and the Economic Research Service (ERS), U. S. Department of Agriculture with assistance from the Forest Service. The work has been carried out under a cooperatiVe.agreement with the Water Resources Council (WRC). The program was initiated in 1964 by members of the (then) ad ho-c WRC.- Upon establishmenH)f the WRC by the Water Resources Planning Act of 1965, the program became an integral part of the comprehensive water resources planning program and the periodic national assessments of water and related land resources.
3

used because a more accurate state allocation as part of a national model could not be developed by the State Data Center, and to provide a legal basis for utilizing sub-state projections in federal grant programs. It is extremely important, when,projecting small areas such as counties, to begin with a state total. The counties were subsequently controlled to the APDC total.
All APDCs and counties were then rounded to the nearest hundred to produce the final projections.
The general assumptions which underlie these projections are as follows: 1) There will be no war, natural disaster or other major disturbance of that
magnitude 2) No attempt was made to allow for future economic fluctuations 3) Growth can be achieved without an ecological disaster 4) There will be no major medical breakthrough which will alter mortality 5) No attempt was made to constrain an area because of density factors 6) No attempt was made to consider energy related factors.
Several years ago the program acquired the acronym of OBERS signifying a unified effort by OBE and ERS in which an integrated set of projections was developed under a common set of assumptions and procedures. Although the OBE has been renamed the BEA the widespread acceptance of the term OBERS has led to its continued use as a descriptive title of the projection program.
4

POPULATION PROJECTIONS

AREA

PROJECTED NUMBER OF INHABITANTS

1980 RANK 1985 RANK 1990 RANK 1995 RANK 2000 RANK 2005 RANK 2010 RANK

GEORGIA

5429000

5810000

6189000

6621000

7053000

7485000

7917000

APPLING

14600 78 15300 79 15900 78 16700 78 17500 79 18400 79 19300 79

ATKINSON BACON

6200 142 9100 113

6300 142 9500 113

6400 143 9900 114

6600 142 1MOO 115

6800 143 11000 115

7000 142 11500 114

7200 142 12100 115

BAKER

3600 152 3500 152 3500 152 3500 152 3400 153 3500 153 3500 153

BALDWIN

36600 29 37700 30 38900 33 40700 34 42500 34 44300 35 46200 35

BANKS

7200 129

7500 129

7700 130

8100 129

8300 131

8600 131

8700 132

BARROW

21100 56 22800 56 24400 56 26300 55 28100 53 29800 54 31300 54

BARTOW

44500 23 49200 22 53900 22 59300 22 64800 22 70500 22 76200 22

BEN HILL

14600 78 15200 80 15800 79 16500 79 17300 80 18100 81 18800 81

Lt)

BERRIEN

12700 90 13100 90 13500 92 14100 92 14700 92 15300 92 15900 94

BIBB

156400 8 162600 9 169400 9 179400 9 190700 9 205400 8 228900 8

BLECKLEY

11100 97 11500 95 11900 96 12400 99 12900 101 13500 101 14000 101

BRANTLEY

7700 128 8300 126 8900 124 9600 120 10400 118 11100 117 11900 116

BROOKS

14100 82 14200 84 14300 86 14600 89 14900 91 15200 93 15500 96

BRYAN

8500 121

9100 117

9700 116 10500 114 11200 113 11900 112 12600 111

BULLOCH

38800 27 42200 25 45700 25 49700 24 53700 24 57900 24 62300 24

BURKE

19100 62 19200 65 19400 72 19900 73 20400 73 20900 75 21500 76

BUTTS

14200 80 15600 77 17000 76 18700 75 20400 73 22100 71 24000 70

CALHOUN

6900 132 7100 132 7200 136 7500 137 7700 137 8000 137 8200 137

CAMDEN

13300 85 14100 86 14900 84 15800 84 16800 83 17700 82 18700 82

CANDLER

6800 134 7000 135 7200 136 7600 135 7900 136 8300 135 8700 132

CARROLL

59300 18 65400 18 71300 18 78000 18 84600 18 91200 18 97800 18

CATOOSA

36700 28 40500 28 44300 27 48600 26 53000 25 57300 25 61800 25

CHARLTON

6700 137

7100 132

7500 131

8000 131

8500 130

9000 128

9500 127

CHATHAM

202000 4 207100 4 212100 5 220100 5 229300 6 238600 6 247000 7

CHATTAHOOCHE E

15200 77 15500 78 15800 79 16200 82 16700 84 17200 84 17700 87

ARE-A
CHATTOOGA CHEROKEE CLARKE CLAY CLAYTON CLINCH COBB COFFEE COLQUITT COLUMBIA COOK COWETA CRAWFORD CRISP DADE DAWSON DECATUR DEKALB DODGE DOOLY DOUGHERTY DOUGLAS EARLY ECHOLS EFFINGHAM ,ELBERT EMANUEL EVANS

POPULATION PROJECTIONS

PROJECTED NUMBER OF I'NHABITANTS

1980 RANK 1985 RANK 1990 RANK 1995 RANK 2000 RANK 2005 RANK 2010 RANK

23200 51 24200 51 25200 53 26600 54 27900 54 29200 55 30500 55

45100 22 50600 21 56100 21 62300 21 68400 21 74500 21 80700 21

86900 11 96800 11 106500 11 117600 11 128500 11 139500 11 150500 11

3000 154

3000 154

3000 154

3000 154

2900 155

2900 155

2900 155

147100 9 168300 8 191300 7 213400 6 236500 . 5 258900 5 281900 5

6900 132 274100 3

7200 131 312100 3

7400 132 350300 3

7800 133 388800 3

8100 134 427700 3

8400 134 467300 3

8800 131 510300 . 3

27000 43 28600 43 30200 45 32200 44 34100 45 36100 45 38000 46

34700 32 35500 36 36400 38 37900 39 39300 40 40700 42 42200 43

31600 37 35800 35 40000 31 44700 31 49500 31 54600 27 60100 26

13900 83 14600 82 15300 81 16300 80 17200 81 18200 80 19100 80 (g

38900 26 41800 27 44700 26 48200 27 51600 26 55100 26 58600 27

6600 138 7000 135

7400 132 8000 131

8600 129

9400 126 10600 123

21300 55 22400 57 23600 57 25100 57 26500 57 28000 57 29500 58

12100 92 13000 91 13900 88 14900 87 16000 85 17000 85 18100 85

4600 150

4800 150

5100 150

5400 150

5700 149

5800 149

5900 149

23500 50 24000 53 24600 55 25500 56 26500 57 27500 59 28500 61

500200 2 556200 2 610600 1 663600 1 715700 1 767400 1 810,400 1

17400 74 18000 74 18600 74 19400 74 20300 75 21200 74 22000 74

11100 97 11300 100 11500 105 11800 105 12200 105 12500 106 12900 108

110300 10 118900 10 127400 10 137400 10 147300 10 157200 10 167200 10

61200 17 72100 17 83500 17 95200 14 107200 13 119600 12 133200 12

13200 87 13500 88 13700 90 14100 92 14600 93 15000 95 15400 97

2200 157

2300 156

2400 156

2500 156

2600 156

2700 156

2900 155

18300 65 20200 61 21900 61 23900 60 26000 59 28000 57 30000 56

18700 63 19400 63 20100 67 21100 67 22000 68 23100 68 24100 69

20700 58 21600 59 22500 59 23800 61 25000 61 26300 62 27500 63

9000 115

9400 115

9800 115 10100 116 10200 119

9700 125

8300 136

- AREA
FANNIN FAYETTE FLOYD FORSYTH FRANKLIN FULTON GILMER GLASCOCK GLYNN GORDON GRADY GREENE GWINNETT HABERSHAM HALL HANCOCK HARALSON HARRIS HART HEARD HENRY HOUSTON IRWIN JACKSON JASPER JEFF DAVIS JEFFERSON
J~NKINS

POPU LAT ION PROJECTIONS

PROJECTED NUMBER OF INHABITANTS

1980 RANK 1985 RANK 1990 RANK 1995 RANK 2000 RANK 2005 RANK 2010 RANK

15400 76 16200 76 17000 76 18100 77 19200 76 20300 76 21500 76

19800 60 23500 55 24900 54 27100 53 27800 55 28800 56 29700 57

84400 13 88900 13 93400 13 99100 13 104700 14 110300 15 115900 15

24900 47 27900 46 30600 44 33700 43 36600 43 39100 43 41400 44

14200 80 14700 81 15300 81 16100 83 16900 82 17700 82 18600 83

583400 1 589600 1 594600 2 598500 2 602100 2 605900 2 608500 2

10600 102 11200 102 11900 96 12700 98 13500 98 14300 98 15100 98

2300 156

2200 157

2200 157

2200 157

2300 157

2300 157

2300 157

59200 19 62800 19 66200 19 70400 19 74900 19 79000 19 83100 19

28900 41 19400 61

31200 41 20000 62

33500 41 20600 65

36200 41 21600 66

38800 41 22500 66

41400 41 23400 66

43900 41 24400 67

,...

11200 96 11500 95 11800 100 12300 101 12800 102 13300 102 13900 103

166700 7 190600 5 216200 4 243300 4 271700 4 301900 4 336000 4

23700 49 25200 48 26800 48 28700 49 30600 49 32700 49 34700 50

74300 14 80800 14 87400 14 95100 15 102900 15 111000 14 119300 13

9300 112

9300 116

9400 117

9600 120

9800 124 10000 124 10200 125

18000 67 18900 70 19900 68 21100 67 22300 67 23400 66 24500 66

13100 88 13600 87 14200 87 15000 86 15800 87 16600 88 17500 88

17800 69 18700 72 19500 70 20600 70 21700 70 22700 70 23800 71

6000 143

6200 143

6500 141

6800 139

7200 139

7500 138

7900 138

31900 36 35500 36 38900 33 42900 33 46800 32 50800 32 54900 31

85500 12 95000 12 103500 12 111800 12 117500 12 118200 13 105100 17

8900 116

9100 117

9300 120

9600 120

9900 122 10200 123 10500 124

25600 45 27500 47 29400 47 31600 46 33800 46 36000 47 38200 45

7100 131

7500 129

7900 128

8400 127

8900 126

9400 126

9900 126

11600 94 12500 93 13400 93 14500 91 15700 89 16900 86 18400 84

18500 64 19000 69 19500 70 20300 71 21100 71 21900 73 22700 73

8400 123

8400 124

8400 126

8600 126

8700 127

8900 129

9100 129

AREA
-
JOHNSON JONES LAMAR LANIER LAURENS LEE LIBERTY LINCOLN LONG LOWNDES LUMPKIN MACON MADISON MARION MCDUFFIE MCINTOSH MERIWETHER MILLER MITCHELL MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN MURRAY MUSCOGEE NEWTON OCONEE OGLETHORPE

POPULATION PROJECTIONS

PROJECTED NUMBER OF INHABITANTS

1980 RANK 1985 RANK 1990 RANK 1995 RANK 2000 RANK 2005 RANK -201-0 -RA-NK

8000 125 8100 127 8200 127 8400 127 8700 127 8900 129 9200 128

17000 75 19200 65 21500 62 24100 59 27000 56 30500 53 35400 49

10700 100 11200 102 11700 102 12300 101 13000 99 13800 99 14600 99

5600 146 5800 146 6000 145 6300 145 6600 145 6900 144 7200 142

35600 31 36900 33 38300 35 40200 35 42000 36 43900 36 45800 36

9900 109 10900 105 11900 96 13000 95 14100 95 15200 93 16200 92

27200 42 29500 42 30700 43 32100 45 34700 44 36100 45 37500 48

6800 134

7000 135

7300 134

7800 133

8200 133

8600 131

9000 130

3900 151

3900 151

3900 151

4000 151

4000 151

4000 151

4000 151

72700 15 79300 15 85800 15 93400 16 100900 16 108500 16 116000 14

10600 102 11500 95 12400 94 13400 94 14500 94 15600 91 16700 90

co

13900 83 14300 83 14700 85 15400 85 16000 85 16600 88 17200 89

17500 72 19100 67 20700 64 22600 64 24400 63 26300 62 28200 62

5300 147 5400 148 5500 149 5700 148 5900 148 6000 148 6200 148

17900 68 19100 67 20300 66 21800 65 23200 65 24700 65 26100 64

9100 113 9700 112 10300 112 11000 111 11700 108 12400 107 13100 107

24100 48 25200 48 26400 50 27900 50 29400 50 30900 52 32500 53

6500 141

6600 139

6700 139

6800 139

7000 140

7200 140

7300 141

20800 57 21400 60 22100 60 23000 62 24000 64 24900 64 25900 65

13300 85 14200 84 15100 83 16300 80 17700 78 19400 77 22000 74

6800 134 7000 135 7300 134 7600 135 8000 135 8300 135 8700 132

11000 99 11400 99 11900 96 12400 99 13000 99 13600 100 14200 100

17500 72 19300 64 21000 63 23000 62 25000 61 27000 61 29100 59

175000 6 177900 7 181100 8 186900 8 192500 8 198200 9 203900 9

34400 33 37900 29 41400 29 45400 30 49600 30 53900 28 58500 28

10000 107 10900 105 11800 100 12900 97 14000 96 15000 95 16100 93

8500 121

8900 121

9200 121

9700 119 10100 120 10600 119 11100 118

ABEA
PAULDING PEACH PICKENS PIERCE PIKE POLK PULASKI PUTNAM QUITMAN RABUN RANDOLPH RICHMOND ROCKDALE SCHLEY SCREVEN SEMINOLE SPALDING STEPHENS STEWART SUMTER TALBOT TALIAFERRO TATTNALL TAYLOR TELFAIR TERRELL 'THOMAS

POPULATION PROJECTIONS

PROJECTED NUMBER OF INHABITANTS

1980 RANK 1985 RANK 1990 RANK 1995 RANK 2000 RANK 2005 RANK 2010 RANK

25000 46 28100 45 31100 42 34500 42 38000 42 41500 40 45200 38

21800 54 24200 51 26700 49 29800 48 33100 48 37100 44 42900 42

11800 93 12700 92 13600 91 14700 88 15800 87 16900 86 18000 86

10600 102 11000 104 11500 105 12100 103 12700 103 13300 102 13900 103

8000 125

8400 124

8700 125

9200 125

9700 125 10300 121 10800 120

34200 34 36000 34 3noo 37 39900 36 42000 36 43900 36 45800 36

8600 120

8900 121

9200 121

9600 120 10000 121 10400 120 10800 120

10000 107 10600 108 11200 107 11900 104 12600 104 13300 102 14000 101

2100 158

2000 158

2000 158

2000 158

2000 158

2000 158

2100 158

10500 105 11300 100 12100 95 13000 95 14000 96 14900 97 15800 95

en

8900 116

9000 119

9200 121

9500 124

9900 122 10300 121 10800 120

179500 5 189900 6 200300 6 213100 7 225600 7 238000 7 250200 6

29600 40 35300 38 41000 30 46500 29 51300 27 53800 29 55,300 30

3200 153 3300 153 3300 153 3400 153 3500 152 3600 152 3700 152

12300 91 11900 94 11600 103 11400 108 11200 113 11100 117 10900 119

8900 116

9500 113 10100 113 10900 113 11700 108 12400 107 13200 106

44100 24 47200 23 50400 23 54400 23 58500 23 62900 23 67600 23

23200 51 24600 50 26000 51 27700 51 29300 51 31000 51 32800 52

6000 143 5900 145 5700 146 5700 148 5700 149 5800 149 5800 150

31500 38 33400 39 35300 40 37700 40 40100 39 42500 39 44800 39

6600 138

6600 139

6600 140 6700 141

6900 141

7000 142

7200 142

1900 159

1800 159

1800 159

1700 159

1700 159

1600 159

1600 159

18100 66 18800 71 19600 69 20700 69 21900 69 23100 68 24400 67

7800 127

7900 128

7900 128

8100 129

8300 131

8500 133

8700 132

12900 89 13400 89 13900 88 14600 89 15300 90 16000 90 16700 90

11500 95 11500 95 11600 103 11800 105 12100 107 12300 109 12600 111

39900 25 42000 26 44200 28 47000 28 49800 . 29 52600 31 55400 29

- AREA
TIFT TOOMBS TOWNS TREUTLEN TROUP TURNER TWIGGS UNION UPSON WALKER WALTON WARE WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WEBSTER WHEELER WHITE WHITFIELD WILCOX WILKES
ILKINSON ORTH

POPULATION PROJECTIONS

PROJECTED NUMBER OF INHABITANTS

1980 RANK 1985 RANK 1990 RANK 1995 RANK 2000 RANK 2005 RANK 2010 RANK

34200 34 37100 31 39900 32 43300 32 46600 33 49900 33 53300 33

22500 53 24000 53 25500 52 27400 52 29300 51 31300 50 33400 51

5200 148 5500 147 5700 146 6100 146 6400 146 6800 145 7100 145

6000 143

6200 143

6300 144

6600 142

6900 141

7100 141

7400 140

46400 21 47200 23 48100 24 49700 24 51200 28 52800 30 54500 32

9600 110 10000 111 10400 111 11000 111 11600 110 12100 110 12700 110

8700 119 9000 119 9400 117 10000 118 10600 117 11500 114 12800 109

8300 124 8800 123 9400 117 10100 116 10800 116 11500 114 12300 114

26800 44 28200 44 29700 46 31600 46 33500 47 35600 48 37900 47

58200 20 61800 20 65300 20 69700 20 74000 20 78300 20 82600 20 30700 39 33400 39 36100 39 39200 38 42200 35 45200 34 48300 34

.0..

36100 30 37100 31 38200 36 39700 37 41300 38 42900 38 44500 40

6600 138

6600 139

6500 141

6600 142

6700 144

6800 145

6900 146

17600 71 17700 75 17800 75 18200 76 18700 77 19100 78 19500 78

20600 59 21700 58 22800 58 24200 58 25700 60 27300 60 29000 60

2700 155 2800 155 2900 155 3000 154 3100 154 3300 154 3400 154

5200 148 5400 148 5600 148 5900 147 6200 147 6500 147 6800 147

9400 111 10100 110 10700 109 11500 107 12200 105 13000 105 13700 105

70400 16 77200 16 83700 16 91200 17 98600 17 105700 17 112700 16

7200 129 7100 132 7100 138 7300 138 7400 138 7500 138 7600 139

10700 100 10800 107 10900 108 11100 110 11400 112 11700 113 11900 116

10200 106 10400 109 10700 109 11200 109 11600 110 12000 111 12500 113

lnOO 70 18400 73 19100 73 20100 72 21100 71 22000 72 23100 72

COUNTIES WITH A PROJECTED POPULATION 35,000 AND OVER 1980 Counties 35,000 and over'
11

COUNTIES WITH A PROJECTED POPULATION 35,000 AND OVER - 2000 Counties 35,000 and over
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12

~~II\II II II IIl\l~,,~~l\~IIIl\~\111\III~~l\III
3 2108 05828 6496