2011 Southern pine beetle predictions [2011]

2011 Southern Pine Beetle Predictions
Scott Griffin, Forest Health Specialist - sgriffin@gfc.state.ga.us
The Georgia Forestry Commission (GFC) participates annually in the southern pine beetle (SPB) trapping program, which enables foresters to predict seasonal SPB population levels. This insect has the potential to cause more forest destruction in the southeastern states than all other forest pests combined, so anticipating potential damage is important. Insect traps are deployed in early spring by GFC foresters and are checked weekly for at least four weeks. A model developed by Dr. Ronald Billings (Texas Forest Service) is used to predict population levels. The model is based on the number of southern pine beetles captured and the number of clerid beetles, a SPB predator, caught in the traps. The history of the trapping program over the past 20 years indicates this model is more than 75 percent accurate.
In the most recent survey, a total of 30 traps were placed statewide. Most of the traps indicated low SPB populations/activity, but a few North Georgia traps showed moderate SPB populations/activity and one showed high SPB populations/activity (See 2011 Southern Pine Beetle Predictions Map). Based on the trapping data alone, GFC does not expect to see significant SPB activity in the state this year.
Special thanks to GFC foresters and technicians for assisting with this year's trapping program. Thanks also to the U.S. Forest Service and Department of Defense for providing trap data. Additional information on trapping and historical SPB survey data is posted at: www.GaTrees.org/ForestManagement/ForestHealth.cfm
The GFC will be conducting an annual aerial survey for pine bark beetles in late June or early July. Any activity will be marked, and the landowner will be notified. A summary report will be posted at www.GaTrees.org.
The SPB Hazard Rating Map for Georgia included in this report was developed by the U.S. Forest Service based upon variables such as host species, stand density, site and soil characteristics. It gives an overview of risk for SPB attack and damage, and provides a good snapshot of where future problems may occur when stand, site, and weather variables trigger another outbreak.
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