Recidivism report, 2019

DJJ RECIDIVISM REPORT UPDATE 20200505

RECIDIVISM QUICK FACT
GEORGIA DEPARTMENT OF JUVENILE JUSTICE
2019 RECIDIVISM
REPORT
WITH FY 2012-2015 RECIDIVISM RATES
Tyrone Oliver, Commissioner

2019 GEORGIA DEPARTMENT OF JUVENILE JUSTICE
RECIDIVISM REPORT
Tyrone Oliver, Commissioner Contributing Authors
Sean Hamilton, Assistant Commissioner Shawanda Reynolds-Cobb, Deputy Commissioner
Lisa Mantz, Assistant Deputy Commissioner Eugene Gaultney, Assistant Director of Information Technology
Bill Webb, Statistical Research Analyst Joan Sumowski, Programmer Analyst
2019 Georgia DJJ Recidivism Update

2019 RECIDIVISM REPORT

FY 2012 TO FY 2015 RECIDIVISM DATA

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The 3-yr delinquency rate declined 1.7% to 34.7% in 2015

The juvenile release cohort declined (4,314) in FY 2015

83% of the release population (FY 2015) were 14-17 year-old youth
Male youth made up 78% of the 2015 release cohort and 82% of the 3-year recidivists

Female youth accounted for 22% of the release population and 18% of the 3-year recidivists
Georgia's recidivism definition: A new charge within three years of the initial postadjudication community placement which results in a juvenile court delinquency adjudication or adult criminal conviction

This report contains data compiled from dependent and shared courts (excluding independent courts)

2019 Georgia DJJ Recidivism Update

RECIDIVISM QUICK FACTS
2015 RISK ANALYSIS BY AGE GROUP
16 year-olds made up 31% of the 2015 juvenile release cohort

14 year-old youth had the highest 1-year re-offense rate (34%)

75% of the FY'15 recidivists consisted of juveniles released in 12
months or less

Juveniles (age 14-17 years-old) made up 81% of the first-year
recidivists
GEORGIA'S JUVENILE DELINQUENT POPULATION

Georgia's population (14 thru 17) grew by 22,000 between the 2012 and 2015 time period
Most of the youth (83%) in the 2015 cohort were released to the community on probation
OFFENSE CATEGORIES
Releases (percentage)

Georgia's seventeen counties with Independent courts are Chatham, Clayton, Cobb, Columbia, Crawford, DeKalb, Dougherty, Floyd, Fulton, Glynn, Gordon, Gwinnett, Hall, Peach, Spalding, Troup, and Whitfield counties. This report does not include release or recidivistic data from any of the previously listed Independent courts since these counties do not report recidivating events to DJJ.

FY

Felony Misdemeanor

2012 2013

42.5% 39.6%

57.5% 60.4%

Juveniles released on probation were highly correlated with male felony offenses, and fe-

2014

41.1%

58.9%

male misdemeanor offenses.

2015

43.3%

56.7%

PREDISPOSITION RISK ASSESSMENT Scoring

PDRA assessments increased to 85% in 2015, superseding 2014's percentage (50%). 65% of the youth released received a low or medium PDRA risk level.

2019 Georgia DJJ Recidivism Update

2019 RECIDIVISM REPORT
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Executive Summary KEY FINDINGS GA DJJ RECIDIVISM METHODOLOGY RECIDIVISM TRENDS FY 2015 COHORT DEMOGRAPHICS PREDICTING RECIDIVISM OFFENSE ANALYSIS YEAR 1 ANALYSIS SURVIVAL ANALYSIS SUMMARY EPILOGUE KENNESAW STATE UNIVERSITY'S LETTER TO THE COMMISSIONER ANNEX A: DEFINITIONS
FIGURES AND TABLES
Table 1. One, two, and three-year recidivism rates for the FY 2015 Release Cohort Figure 1. Four-year comparison of release and recidivism values Figure 2. Comparison of three-year recidivism rates Figure 3. Spatial representation of release and recidivism monitoring Figure 4. Georgia 14-17 year-old population versus recidivist count Figure 5. Release populations by race Figure 6. Release populations by gender Figure 7. Release population percentage share by gender Figure 8. FY 2015 Release population age distribution, and 1-year recidivism rate Table 2. FY 2015 Release and Recidivists Population by Age Figure 9. FY 2015 Age distribution by Most Serious Offense Table 3. PDRA risk level distribution by percentage share for the FY2015 release cohort. Table 4. PDRA risk level versus commitment type (legal status) and one-year recidivism rate Figure 10. Release population by Event Legal Action Type Table 5. Releases by Legal Category Figure 11. Time-to-failure Analysis Table 6. Recidivism Events by Fiscal Year (2012-2015) Release Cohorts

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11 12 13 14 15 16
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2019 Georgia DJJ Recidivism Update

PROLOGUE
The Georgia Department of Juvenile Justice (DJJ) 2019 Recidivism Report highlights the first full year of complete data reflecting the impact of the Justice Reform Act of 2013 (HB 242). The Justice Reform Act includes a combination of removing status offenders and certain misdemeanants from the secure detention population along with the use of the PreDisposition Risk Assessment (PDRA) that helps the agency decide the best level of intervention for each juvenile based on his/her level of risk.
DJJ is encouraged by the results seen in this year's report. The results of using the PDRA tool appear to indicate that it is a reliable indicator of juvenile risk levels. This tool will help guide the agency towards positive interventions for youth most likely to be re-adjudicated and help DJJ avoid over-serving those youth who are unlikely to ever be adjudicated again. It will also help Georgia improve the numerous services offered to rehabilitate the youth in DJJ's care to further meet our goal of promoting safer communities and more successful youth.
The DJJ has partnered with Kennesaw State University's (KSU) Analytics and Data Science Institute (http://datascience.kennesaw.edu/) to validate and assist with the preparation of this year's report. KSU reviewed the methodology and calculations as well as provided guidance with the report presentation.
2019 Georgia DJJ Recidivism Update

OVERVIEW
This year represents the first complete fiscal year of post-reform juvenile recidivism metrics. This publication provides a pivotal view of the state's shared vision of the juvenile justice system, and the results of its' efforts.
The 2019 report continues the use of the updated 2017 recidivism methodology to provide consistent recidivism calculations. Reporting consistency enables various state agencies, legislators and the concerned public to measure and track recidivism rate movements over time utilizing a consistent criteria.
The juvenile release cohort continued to contract throughout the FY 2012 to FY 2015 reporting cycle, reducing the number of releases to 1,638 (27.5%) over the four years. Juveniles age 10 thru 14 made up one-third of the 2015 release cohort. Towards the lower end of the release spectrum juveniles age 17 and 18 comprised 7% of the population (see Pg.7 table 2). Releases declined 3.7% (4,314) in 2015, and continued to move the recidivism rate's denominator lower.
Juvenile recidivists followed a downward trend that was similar to the release cohort, albeit at a faster pace. In 2015, the recidivists' population had declined to 1,497 (32.4%) juveniles, which was 717 fewer re-offenders than the previous year (2,214 juveniles).
Three-year recidivism rates remained between 36%-37%, for the four-year reporting range, except for in 2015 when the rate declined to 34.7%. Reductions in the recidivists' population (32%) outpaced the release population (27%) by nearly 5 percentage points, over the four-year reporting period. Momentum declines in the re-offender population aided the 2015 cohort's recidivism rate reduction. In the final reporting fiscal year, the 3-year recidivism rate declined to 34.5%, which included the first entire (post-reform) reporting fiscal year.
Georgia's seventeen counties with Independent courts are Chatham, Clayton, Cobb, Columbia, Crawford, DeKalb, Dougherty, Floyd, Fulton, Glynn, Gordon, Gwinnett, Hall, Peach, Spalding, Troup, and Whitfield counties. This report does not include release or recidivistic data from any of the previously listed Independent courts since these counties do not report recidivating events to DJJ.
Rate Change Fiscal Recidivism Year 2015 % Rate Year 2 Year 3 Year 1 25.92% Year 2 32.48% 6.56% Year 3 34.70% - 2.23%
Table 1. One, two, and three-year recidivism rates for the FY 2015 Release Cohort (rounded two decimal places).

Georgia's recidivism definition: A new charge within three years of the initial post-adjudication community placement which results in a juvenile court delinquency adjudication or adult criminal conviction.
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2019 Georgia DJJ Recidivism Update

KEY FINDINGS

Figure 2. Comparison of three year recidivism rates across FY 2012 to FY 2015 Cohorts
Year One Recidivists
Historically, a large portion of the release cohort experiences a recidivistic event within the first year of being released. In 2015, 75% (1,118) of the 3-year recidivists (1,497) committed a delinquent act within the first 12 months of being released to the community.
In the first year of released youth being placed back in the community, juvenile re-offenders moved the delinquency rate up to 25.9%. Early recidivists were the main contributors to the rate increase. However, the 12 month rate managed to remain a full percentage point below the previous year's rate.
During the next tracking period (13-24 months), 283 additional juveniles were added to the delinquency rolls which increased the recidivists count to 1,401 youth, and moved the rate up to 32.4%. Nevertheless, the second year delinquency rate continued to remain below the rate reached in FY 2014 for the same reporting period (34.2%).
In the final report tracking period (24-36 months), 96 juveniles were added to the 2015 release cohort's re-offender list for committing a new unlawful act. Over the 3-year reporting period, juveniles released in FY 2015 reached a recidivism rate of 34.7% (1,497 juveniles).

Technical offenses, status offenses (ChiNS) or SB 440 offenses are not included in this report's juvenile release population.

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2019 Georgia DJJ Recidivism Update

GEORGIA RECIDIVISM METHODOLOGY
This report analyzes juvenile release cohorts by fiscal year. Each release begins with the first day a youth becomes available for reoffending in the community and ends after three years or the day a new qualifying re-adjudication occurs. One and two-year monitoring is conducted as well as a final count when the cohort reaches its three-year maturity.

FY 2014

FY 2015

FY 2016

FY 2017

FY 2018

Release Count

1 Year Rate

2 Year Rate

3 Year Rate

Adjudicated releases are counted at the end of each FY A three year monitoring period counts re-offense The end of the third year of release provides the final release count
Figure 3. Special representation of release and recidivism monitoring
Once a juvenile is released into the community, the recidivism monitoring period begins. This point may be at the start of a new probation or community commitment or when a juvenile is released from secure confinement. Measurement begins at the point of release into the community when youth has the opportunity to commit a new offense and impact public safety. Most offenders are still under DJJ supervision when they are released to the community on probation, in aftercare, or in residential placements.
Recidivating Events
Georgia's recidivism measurement methodology counts multiple recidivating events for the same juvenile as a single recidivism count. Recidivism is measured for a period of at least one year from time of release into the community out to three years. The majority of recidivism, as observed by Georgia DJJ and other states, occurs within the first year, marking an essential window for analysis. The extended follow-up period of three years describes long-term outcomes.
Linking to Adult Corrections
A juvenile may legally be an adult during the at-risk follow-up period after release into the community. Juvenile records are linked with adult conviction data so that adult recidivating events are captured in our analysis.
The data provided by the Georgia Department of Corrections provides the offense date for youngadult offenders who were previously adjudicated by a Juvenile Court. For this population, DJJ juvenile recidivism calculation uses the date of the offense in our analysis for those young adults sentenced to an adult prison and any combination of adult offenses constitutes a singular recidivism count.

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2019 Georgia DJJ Recidivism Update

RECIDIVISM TRENDS

Figure 4. Georgia 14-17 year old population versus recidivist count. The estimates are based on the 2010 Census and reflect changes to the April 1, 2010 population due to the Count Question Resolution program and geographic program revisions.
According to the Census Bureaus' projections, Georgia's youth population (age 14-17) increased by an additional 22,000 youth in 4-years (2012-2015), an increase of 4.2%.
DJJ's release population declined during the reporting time frame (a 4-year reduction of 27%) from 5,952 (2012) to 4,314 (2015). Juveniles (age 14 to 17 years-old) made up 83% (3,595) of the 2015 release cohort.
In 2015, one-year re-offenders reached a total of 1,118 youth, a 27% decline from the 1,542 recidivists in 2012. Eighty-one percent (915) of the recidivists in the 2015 release cohort were made up of juveniles between the age of 14 to 17 years-old.

SB 440 youth cases that are processed through adult criminal justice systems were omitted from the Georgia's recidivist population.

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2019 Georgia DJJ Recidivism Update

FY 2015 COHORT DEMOGRAPHICS

Figure 5. Release populations by race from FY 2012 to FY 2015
The juvenile release population continued to decline over the four years. However, the concentrated population shifts continued to increase the percentage shares of minority groups from the juvenile release population. Percentage shares of African-American and Hispanic youth increased as percentage shares for Caucasian and Other Youth declined.
African-American youth accounted for one out of every two juveniles released in 2015. The minority group's population share increased from 56.7% (2014) to 57.6% (2015) during a declining release population period.
Hispanic youth made up 4.9% (212) of the 2015 release population, up five-tenths of a percent increase from the 4.4% (198) established share the prior year (FY 2014).
The Caucasian population decreased to a 34.4% (1,488) share of juvenile releases in 2015. In the previous year's (FY 2014) release cohort, youths of Caucasian descent made up 36.1% of the releases.
Juveniles of Asian, American Indian, and Pacific Islander descent were all represented in the Other Youth race category. This diverse group of juveniles placed in the alternate race category increased two-tenths of a percent to 2.9% (128) in 2015.

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2019 Georgia DJJ Recidivism Update

RELEASE AND RECIDIVISTS POPULATION BY GENDER
Figure 6. Release population percentage share by gender from FY 2012 to FY 2015.

Figure 7. Recidivist population percentage share by gender from FY 2012 to FY 2015.
The juvenile population remained stable for both genders in the 2015 release cohort.
Males, which consistently make up the majority of the releases, accounted for 78% of the 2015 release cohort. Young men made up 82% (1,235) of the re-offender population and generated a 3-year delinquency rate of 36.8%.
One out of every five juveniles released in 2015 were female, accounting for 22% (963) of the release population. Young women held 17% (262) of the 3-year recidivists population, generating a 27.2% re-offender rate for the three-year tracking period.

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2019 Georgia DJJ Recidivism Update

Figure 8. FY 2015 Release population age distribution, and 1-year recidivism rate.
During the 2015 fiscal year, a total of 4,314 juveniles were released into the community. Adolescents 16 years-of-age established the largest number of releases (1,357) which equated to 31% of the release cohort. Youth ages 14 (18%) and 15 (27%) made up a combined 45% (1,971) of the juvenile releases.
Historically, most juvenile recidivists perform a delinquent act within the first year of release. The 2015 release cohort continued to follow the same pattern, recording 1,118 juvenile re-offenders in the first 12-months of release, which generated a one-year recidivism rate of 25.9%.
A core group of juveniles (age 13, 14, and 15 year-olds) made up 55% (2,386) of the 2015 release cohort, and 70% (791) of the one-year recidivists that assisted in pushing the recidivism rate to 25.9%. The recidivism rate (one-year) was driven lower to 17.4% by the 16 year-old-youth and continued it's decent to 4.8% by 17 year-old youth.

Releases

FY

Age

Count

9

3

10

18

11

50

12

172

13

415

14

790

2015

15

1,181

16

1,357

17

267

18

25

19

15

20

11

21

10

FY2015 Total

4,314

1-Yr Recidivists

Count

Rate

-

3

16.67%

14

28.00%

46

26.74%

126

30.36%

274

34.68%

391

33.11%

237

17.46%

13

4.87%

7

28.00%

3

20.00%

2

18.18%

2

20.00%

1,118

25.92%

Table 2. FY 2015 Release and Recidivists Population by Age.

Juvenile Release population:
A defined group of youth placed in a juvenile cohort that have been released to the community and tracked for reporting purposes.

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2019 Georgia DJJ Recidivism Update

Figure 9. FY 2015 Age (10-18 year-olds) distribution by Most Serious Offense (MSO) * excluding 19, 20 & 21 year-olds.
Juveniles age 10 to 18 years-old made up 99% (4,275) of the 2015 release cohort (4,314). The released at-risk population is displayed and analyzed by their most serious offense (MSO). The release cohort consisted of mostly 15 (27%) and 16 (31%) year-old juveniles, the combined age groups made up 58% of the release population.
Juveniles have a tendency to commit property offenses more often than any other single offense. In 2015, 39% of the juveniles released had a property offense on record, as their most serious offense (MSO). Property offenses held the most significant offense category committed by juveniles. In the 2015 release cohort, 15 and 16 year-old youth dominated the release category by capturing 61% (1,041) of the property offenses (1,688) committed as their most serious offense (MSO).
The Violent offense category placed second, with 941 offenses and 23% of the juveniles released fell into this offense category. The largest percentage share of violent offenses were committed by 15 and 16 year-olds, capturing 27% of the offenses.
Public order and traffic offenses combined made up the third-largest offense category (874). Consequently, 15 and 16 year-old youth were responsible for 29% and 30% of the combined offense category, respectively.

Juveniles For the purposes of this report, GDJJ classifies a juvenile as any individual who is: Youth under the age of 17 years-old Youth under the age of 21, who committed an act of delinquency before reaching the age of 17 years, and who has been placed under the supervision of the court or on probation to the court
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2019 Georgia DJJ Recidivism Update

PREDICTING RECIDIVISM
The Pre-Disposition Risk Assessment (PDRA), is an instrument that was implemented in the middle of the 2014 fiscal year. The tool was developed by the Georgia Department of Juvenile Justice in collaboration with the National Council on Crime & Delinquency (NCCD). The PDRA replaced the Comprehensive Risk and Needs Assessment (CRN), a youth-adapted version of the adult COMPAS tool.
The PDRA is a robust evidence-based risk assessment tool that contains a combination of static and dynamic risk factors that identify a youth's criminogenic risk level. The PDRA allows juveniles to be classified into one of three risks groups: low, medium, or high after the assessment is completed. The PDRA risk assessment tool provides additional information to courts, guide placement decisions, and help to allocate youth services more efficiently reducing youth delinquency.
In 2014, the PDRA applied to the second half of the fiscal year. As a result, only 50% (2,247) of the 2014 release cohort (4,479) received a PDRA by the end of the fiscal year. In 2015, 85% (3,385) of the released juvenile population (4,317) received a PDRA. DJJ now has a larger sample size to analyze the effectiveness of the new risk assessment instrument.
A significant number of the juveniles in the 2015 release cohort received a Pre-Disposition Risk Assessment (PDRA), providing extensive insight into the dynamic outcomes of juvenile releases. With a larger sample size and an advanced risk assessment tool, DJJ is equipped to review the results of risk level classification and delinquency.

FY 2015

PDRA Risk Distribution Level

Low

Medium

High

32.3%

32.1%

21.0%

None 14.6%

Table 3. PDRA risk level distribution by percentage share for the FY2015 release cohort.

The term risk is used to refer to the potential act for repeated involvement in delinquent behavior.
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2019 Georgia DJJ Recidivism Update

RISK LEVEL DISTRIBUTION

PDRA Releases by PDRA Risk Level (FY2015)

FY Legal Action

Low

Medium

High

2015

Committed STP + Probation
STP Probation 1-Yr Recidivists Rate by Risk Level

8.8% 11.7% 2.7% 36.8%
13.8%

18.5% 33.1% 27.0% 33.6%
29.0%

49.8% 42.7% 43.2% 15.8%
39.6%

None
23.0% 12.5% 27.0% 13.8%
26.3%

1-Yr Recidivists
Rate
28.5% 48.4% 13.5% 23.9%

Table 4. Most current PDRA risk level versus commitment type (legal status) and one-year recidivism rate for the FY2015 release cohort.

The FY2015 release cohort 1-year delinquency rate increased as the risk level elevation increased. Approximately one-third (1,395) of the released juveniles were placed into the PDRA's low risk category. Low-risk offenders are less likely to engage in future delinquent behavior and need little to no intervention; low-risk adolescents received the lowest 1-year recidivism rate (13.8%) of the three risk categories.
The criminogenic needs of the juveniles (1,385) placed into the medium PDRA risk category may be more difficult to gauge. Their needs may appear masked, which may require a higher level of intervention to reduce future delinquency behavior. Medium risk youth recidivated at 2x the rate of their low-risk counterparts, reaching a 29% one-year post-release delinquency rate.
Adolescents placed in the high-risk category require more specialized services to address their specific criminogenic needs to avoid future delinquent acts. In 2015, 905 youth were released in the community with a high-risk level PDRA. Juveniles in the high-risk category (905) re-offended at a 36.6% rate, in the first year after being released, achieving the highest 1-year recidivism rate of the three risk categories.
The remaining juvenile population (632) that did not receive a PDRA recidivated at a rate of 26.3% in the first 12 months after being released, placing them between the low and medium risk group's delinquency rates.

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2019 Georgia DJJ Recidivism Update

OFFENSE ANALYSIS

Figure 10. Release population by Event Legal Action Type from 2012 to 2015.
In 2015, probation releases represented 83% (3,599) of the juvenile release cohort, the most significant single categorical release of the four legal actions. Youth released on probation generated a 1-year delinquency rate of 23.9%, capturing the second lowest percentage.
Committed juveniles which are placed under the custody of DJJ by court order, captured the second largest legal action percentage share 9.2% (400) of the 2015 releases. Committed youth reoffended at a rate of 28.5% after one-year.
The short-term program (STP) + probation represents one of the smaller legal action categories with 281 juvenile releases. These youth are required to complete a specialized program before being released to the community on probation. In the 2015 fiscal year, 6.5% of the juveniles released received a STP + probation legal action upon release. STP + probation held the highest one-year re-offense rate of the four legal action categories with a recidivism rate of 48.4% (1- year post-release).
The legal action release category with the fewest juveniles belonged to the Short-Term Program (STP) with only 37 releases from the 2015 cohort. Youth in this category completed a required program before being released into the community. This release segment accounted for less than 1% of the release population. STP released youth generated the lowest one-year delinquency rate (13.5%) of the four legal categories.

Probation releases to the community remains the most often used legal action.
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2019 Georgia DJJ Recidivism Update

FY 2012 2013 2014 2015

Felony

Count

Percentage

2,529

42.5%

2,142

39.6%

1,841

41.1%

1,868

43.3%

Misdemeanor

Count Percentage

3,423

57.5%

3,265

60.4%

2,638

58.9%

2,446

56.7%

Table 5. Releases by Legal Category

In 2015 the juvenile release population experienced an increase in felony releases as misdemeanor releases shifted downward. The percentage share of felony releases increased in 2014 to 41% (1,841), followed by a consecutive increase to 43% (1,868) in 2015. Misdemeanor releases moved lower after the 2013 fiscal year, falling below the 60% mark in 2014 (58%) and 2015 (56%). As the release population becomes more concentrated, DJJ will continue to witness more population shifts as juvenile justice reform polices continue to take form.

The 2015 cohort exhibited an increase in the release percentages of felons and a decrease in the release percentage of mis-
demeanants.
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2019 Georgia DJJ Recidivism Update

TIME-TO-FAILURE ANALYSIS

Figure 11. FY 2015 Release Cohort, Time-to-failure curve
Time-to-failure is a critical component of tracking recidivism. It's used to indicate the most vulnerable time periods that juveniles are most likely to engage in recidivistic behavior, after being released to the community. Male and female youth have different offense characteristics and delinquency tendencies; therefore, we tracked recidivistic activity for each gender separately.
The Kaplan-Meir statistical model was used to generate a time-to-failure delinquency curve, which illustrates a cumulative pattern of juvenile delinquency over a 36 month window. However, we will concentrate on the re-offenses that occurred with in the first 12 month release period, since most juvenile delinquent acts occur within that time period.
At the six-month (post-release) time interval male youth produced 187 new delinquent acts, elevating the recidivism rate to 19.4%. The female delinquency rate reached 14.6% during the half-of -year time period, with 141 new re-offenders. One-year into the juvenile tracking period 27.3% (263) of the male youth men released had engaged in a new recidivistic act. Female youth reached 204 re-offenders by their first post-release anniversary, equating to a one-year rate of 21.2%.
The two lines listed in the graph (figure 11) displays the path of the delinquency percentage movements by gender. During the first 30-days (post-release) male and female delinquency rates remained in close proximity (within 2.3%) from each other. Line separation progressively increases after the first month and continues to expand throughout the remaining tracking period. The graph indicates that male and female youth tend to recidivate at a similar pace during the first 30 days of release. Afterwards, the frequency of males engaging in recidivistic acts accelerated exceeding their female counterparts for the remaining observed reporting months.

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2019 Georgia DJJ Recidivism Update

SUMMARY
This publication provides a glance into the first full fiscal year of post-reform data, gauging the effectiveness of the 2014 Justice Reform Act (HB 242). The agency examined juvenile release cohort data for FY 2015 by race, gender, offense classification, legal action category, risk level, and recidivism.
The declines in the agency's juvenile population reverberated throughout the reporting cycle. Juvenile releases moved to a lower base in 2015, shifting the release cohort to a new low (4,314). Most of the released juveniles were male (77%) and of minority descent (65%)5. Property offenses remained the single leading release offense category, accounting for 39%7 of the committed (MSO) offenses. Youth released on probation to the community continued to be, by far, the largest event legal action (83%). A significant propensity of youth were classified at low (32%) or medium (32%) risk levels2, which carried lower re-offense incidents.
Contractions in the number of released juveniles (FY 2015) were exceeded by the rapid decline in the re-offender population, which moved the recidivism rate lower.
In 2015, first-year recidivists started off the reporting cycle with lower initial recidivism rates (25.9%), setting the stage for a 3rd-year rate reduction. Two years later, juvenile re-offenders reached a reporting low of 34.7% for the 3-year recidivism rate, displaying a dramatic 1.7% rate decline from the previous year.

Recidivists

FY

Release Cohort

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

2011 6,844 1,737 2,268

2,518

2012 5,952 1,542 2,018

2,214

2013 5,407 1,391 1,789

1,966

2014 4,479 1,204 1,532

1,630

2015 4,314 1,118 1,401

1,497

Table 6. 4-Year Recidivism Events by Fiscal Year (FY 2012 to FY 2015).

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2019 Georgia DJJ Recidivism Update

EPILOGUE
The 2019 recidivism report provides a full year of juvenile justice data (post-reform), which will be used to establish base year comparison rates for future reports. These results will serve as a guide marker for trends analysis, shifts in the offense population, and program development research. We are pleased with the increased usage and the early results of our first full year of PDRA assessments. The agency's confidence in the new assessment tool will continue to gain traction and increase the effectiveness of the services that we provide to Georgia's youth.
END NOTES
1. In 2017, Georgia DJJ changed the definition and data attributes of recidivism values. This definition was approved by the Governor's Office and DJJ Staff. 2. Note: Information provided by the Georgia Department of Corrections (GDOC) data query. Generated by GDOC July 2019. 3. Source: US Census, Georgia population forecast. Retrieved from www.census.gov. 4. Note: 19 and 20 year-old-youth were excluded from this graph, both metrics were visually indiscernible and only represented 1 percent of the release population. 5. Pre-Disposition Risk Assessment (PDRA) 6. Data Includes: African-American, Hispanic, American Indian, Pacific Islander, and Other races 7. Property (MSO) offenses (1,697) / Total MSO offenses (4,314) = 39.3% Kaplan-Meir time-to-failure graph provided by KSU (page 13)
Release cohort data references the 2015 fiscal year release cohort, unless other wise noted

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2019 Georgia DJJ Recidivism Update

February 28, 2020
Commissioner Tyrone Oliver Georgia Department of Juvenile Justice 3408 Covington Highway Decatur, Georgia, 30032
Dear Commissioner Oliver,
Kennesaw State University's Analytics and Data Science Institute greatly appreciates the opportunity to review the logic and provide input on the 2019 Recidivism Report. The report summarizes the recidivism rates between fiscal years 2012 and 2015. The relationship between the Department of Juvenile Justice (DJJ) and KSU's Analytics and Data Science Institute was developed by Barry Olgetree and Eugene Gaultney from the DJJ and Herman "Gene" Ray from the Center for Statistics and Analytical Research (CSAR), which is housed in the Analytics and Data Science Institute. The Analytics and Data Science Institute reviewed the logic and the associated computer code that created the summaries presented in the Recidivism Report. The computer code was reviewed line by line, ensuring that the logic worked as expected. The code was revised when appropriate. A near final draft of the publication was also reviewed, looking for improvements in organization or presentation of the materials. The Analytics and Data Science Institute provided an outline of the suggested changes, many of which were adopted. The Analytics and Data Science Institute is very proud to be part of the final product and welcomes future collaborations with the DJJ.
Sincerely,

Herman E. Ray Director, Center for Statistics and Analytical Research

Town Point Suite 2400 MD 9104 1000 Chastain Road Kennesaw, GA 30144 Phone: 470-578-2865 www.kennesaw.edu
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2019 Georgia DJJ Recidivism Update

ANNEX A:

DEFINITIONS

Adjudication The process for determining if allegations brought forth in the juvenile court petition are true. An adjudicatory hearing is held to determine the facts of the case and an appropriate course of action.
Commitment A juvenile court disposition which places a youth in the custody of DJJ for supervision, treatment and rehabilitation. Under operation of law, the commitment order is valid for two years. DJJ makes the placement determination of whether the youth should be placed in a Youth Development Campus (YDC) or on an alternate placement. Most often, a youth is committed when probation and/or other services available to the court have failed to prevent a youth from returning to the court on either a new offense(s) or violation of probation.
Designated Felony Commitment A juvenile court adjudication that a youth has committed certain felony acts and is a disposition in which a youth has met certain criteria, which indicates the youth requires restrictive custody. The juvenile court judge determines whether a youth requires restrictive custody as well as the length of time (from 12 to 60 months) a youth must be placed in a YDC. Commitments with restrictive custody have restrictions on terminations and reduce the intensive level of aftercare supervision. Under operation of law, the commitment orders with restrictive custody are valid for five years or until a youth is 21 years old.
SB 440 Refers to the School Safety and Juvenile Justice Reform Act of 1994 (SB 440). Among other things, this legislation modified the jurisdiction of juvenile courts to provide that superior courts have exclusive jurisdiction over children ages 13-17 who are alleged to have committed one of the following offenses (commonly referred to as the "Seven Deadly Sins"): aggravated child molestation, aggravated and sexual battery, aggravated sodomy, murder, rape, voluntary manslaughter, or armed robbery with a firearm. Prior to indictment, a district attorney may elect to send the case to juvenile court.
Youth Development Campuses (YDCs) Residential institutions providing academic, recreational, vocational, medical, mental health, counseling and religious services for those youth committed to DJJ, or convicted of an offense under Senate Bill 440.

Short Term Program (STP) - Programs operated by DJJ for youth sentenced by juvenile court judges to serve up to a maximum of 30 days or for youth screened for the program as a result of an Administrative Revocation.

Pre-Disposition Risk Assessment (PDRA) - The PDRA is an assessment instrument that helps juvenile justice systems identify the system-involved youth on whom they should focus. The tool helps to classify those youth who are most likely to be involved in future adjudications, allowing agencies to know how intensively to intervene, or what, if any, intervention is necessary.

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2019 Georgia DJJ Recidivism Update