Population forecast fiscal year 2007-2011

Department of Juvenile Justice
DJJ Service Population Forecast
FY 2007 2011
Albert Murray Commissioner
Office of Technology and Information Services Planning, Research and Program Evaluation Section

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY 2007 2011 Jeff Minor, Deputy Commissioner Doug Engle, Chief Information Officer
Project Staff Eugene M. Pond, Statistical Research Analyst Keith Parkhouse, Project Director II Joshua Cargile, Programmer/Analyst II Ann Watkins, Operations Analyst III
Planning, Research and Program Evaluation Section Department of Juvenile Justice 3408 Covington Highway Decatur, Georgia 30032 http://www.djj.state.ga.us/
November 2006

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011
Foreword
The Service Population Forecast plays a critical role in the planning process of the Georgia Department of Juvenile Justice. It is a tool that is used by the agency's management team in planning the various resources that the agency will need to carry out its mission. The Forecast uses an analytical model utilizing data from past years to forecast secure and non-secure bed space needs for the near future. While this is a key feature of the Forecast, the process does not always result in clear indicators of why certain events are taking place. In order to build on what the data suggests it is essential to obtain input from Regional Administrators, District Directors, and others in the field in order to draw on their experiences and their sense of what may be influencing the Forecast projections.

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DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

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DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Table of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................................................................... 6 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 12
Change in Forecasting Methodology......................................................................................................................................................... 13 Special Features of the Forecasting Methodology .................................................................................................................................... 14 POPULATION GROWTH................................................................................................................................................................................. 16 Growth of At-Risk Youth.......................................................................................................................................................................... 16 Growth of Juvenile Offenders ................................................................................................................................................................... 16 Characteristics of the Intake Population.................................................................................................................................................... 17 Statewide Offense Trends.......................................................................................................................................................................... 18 Regional Offense Trends ........................................................................................................................................................................... 19 LEGAL STATUS FORECASTS........................................................................................................................................................................ 21 Intake ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 22 Probation.................................................................................................................................................................................................... 24 Total Commitments ................................................................................................................................................................................... 26 Regular Commitments............................................................................................................................................................................... 28 Designated Felons ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 30 STP ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 32 PLACEMENT FORECASTS............................................................................................................................................................................. 35 Total RYDC Placements ........................................................................................................................................................................... 36 Community, Pre-Adjudication .................................................................................................................................................................. 38 RYDC Pre-Adjudication ........................................................................................................................................................................... 40 RYDC, Awaiting YDC.............................................................................................................................................................................. 42 RYDC Awaiting STP ................................................................................................................................................................................ 44 YDC Regular Commitments ..................................................................................................................................................................... 46 YDC Designated Felons ............................................................................................................................................................................ 48 YDC Youth Sentenced by the Superior Court .......................................................................................................................................... 50 YDC STP................................................................................................................................................................................................... 52 Home Commitments.................................................................................................................................................................................. 54 Non-Secure Residential ............................................................................................................................................................................. 56 Probation under Supervision in the Community ....................................................................................................................................... 58 RYDC AND YDC POPULATION FORECASTS............................................................................................................................................ 61 RYDC Bed Capacity Forecasts ................................................................................................................................................................. 62 YDC Long-Term Bed Capacity Forecasts ................................................................................................................................................ 65

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DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011
APPENDIX A....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 67 DJJ Regions and Districts.......................................................................................................................................................................... 68 Population Estimates of At-Risk Youth by Regions and Districts............................................................................................................ 69
APPENDIX B....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 70 Statewide and Regional Most Serious Offenses at Intake......................................................................................................................... 70
APPENDIX C....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 90 Regional Legal Status and Placement Forecasts ....................................................................................................................................... 91
APPENDIX D..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 110 Forecasting Database/Methodology Changes ......................................................................................................................................... 111 Effects of Senate Bill 134 on STP........................................................................................................................................................... 112
APPENDIX E..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 114 Definitions of Placements, and Forecasting Terms ................................................................................................................................. 115

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DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

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DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Forecasts in this report focus on admissions and the average daily population (ADP) of each of the populations DJJ serves in its two types of secure facilities, Regional Youth Detention Centers (RYDCs) and Youth Development Campuses (YDCs), as well as in the populations in various non-secure settings.1
The basic forecasting model remains unchanged from the one used in previous reports; although, several new data elements have been included to enhance coverage of the service populations (now gender specific) and better detect recent trends in the data (quarterly, as well as yearly measures of change).2
Changes in Two Key Populations
There are two external populations that greatly influence DJJ's statewide and regional Legal Status and Placement forecasts --- the At-Risk youth population (youth 10 16 years of age) and the number of juvenile offenders.
At-Risk Youth
FY2004 FY2006. The estimated number of at-risk youth increased 3.9% during the forecast's historical period; increasing from 908,138 to 943,350 or 35,212 additional youth. During this period, the at-risk youth population was increasing about 14,155 youth per year.
o In the historical period, the majority of the increase in the at-risk youth population came from two areas of the State: the Atlanta area in Region 3 (48.8%) and northeast of Atlanta in Region 2 (22.2%). See Appendix A for a map of the DJJ regions and districts.
FY2007 FY2011. During the forecasting period, the at-risk youth population should increase 6% or an additional 57,210 youth (951,398 to 1,008,608).
o The majority of the increase in the at-risk youth population will again come from Region 3 (52%) and Region 2 (24%).

Up 4% or 35,212 youth
Up 6% or 57,210 youth

Percent Growth of At-Risk Youth by Region FY2004 - FY2006

Region 5 4.3%
Region 4
6.4%

Region 1 18.3%

Region 3 48.8%

Region 2 22.2%

Percent Growth of At-Risk Youth by Region

FY2007 - FY2011

Region 4 2%

Region 5 3%

Region 1 19%

Region 3 52%

Region 2 24%

1 Community and non-residential treatment placements. 2 The model uses a combination of historical regression trends and input from DJJ staff to adjust the forecasts to reflect statewide policy issues and changes.

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DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011
Intake of Juvenile Offenders
FY2004 FY2006
In the forecast's historical period the intake of young offenders increased 16% (increasing from 37,141 in FY2004 to 43,235 in FY2006). This means that, on average, DJJ's intake of young offenders increased about 3,000 per year.
The majority of the increase in juvenile offenders during the FY2004-FY2006 historical period came from three DJJ Regions:
o Region 5 (24.1%), o Region 2 (21.8%) and, o Region 3 (21.5%).

Up 16%
or 6,094 youth

Percent Growth in Offenders at Intake by Region FY2004 - FY2006

Region 5 24.1%

Region 1 14.0%

Region 4 18.5%

Region 2 21.8%
Region 3 21.5%

FY2007 FY2011
During FY2007 to FY2011 intake is forecast to increase 27%; increasing from 45,353 youth in FY2007 to 57,541 in FY2011.
The majority of the increase in juvenile offenders during the FY2007-FY2011 forecasting period will come from three DJJ Regions: o Region 3 (24.3%), o Region 5 (22.8%) and, o Region 2 (21.1%).

See Appendix C, Regional Legal Status and Placement Forecasts.

Up 27%
or 12,188 youth

Percent Growth in Offenders at Intake by Region FY2007 - FY2011

Region 5 22.8%

Region 1 12.7%

Region 4 19.2%

Region 2 21.1%
Region 3 24.3%

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DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011
Trends in Juvenile Offenses
While the number of admissions at intake largely determines forecasts of the average daily population (ADP) in DJJ's various programs, it is the severity of a youth's offense that largely determines how long a youth will remain in a program. For example, a large increase in status offenders would not have the same impact on the ALOS in a program as a comparable influx of youth with violent offense histories.
Since the current population-forecasting model does not directly address the effects of offense severity on ALOS, a special study of the Most Serious Offenses (MSOs) of youth at intake was conducted to determine trends in juvenile offending and offense severity over the FY2004-FY2006 historical period.
This study indicated DJJ can expect a number of changes, some quite large, in the MSOs youth will have at intake during FY2007 - FY2011. Some of the findings are presented in the two sidebars.
Ten of DJJ's eleven MSO classes are forecast to show continued growth during the FY 2007 FY2011 period. For example:
Violent. On average, youth with violent offenses are forecast to increase 33% or 615 per year (450 males, 165 females). Since most youth with violent offenses will be committed, they will increase the need for RYDC beds prior to adjudication, as well as eventually increasing the use of YDC Long-Term beds. Over a three-year period, the ALOS for committed youth with a violent offense has increased 85days or 31%.
Status. Youth with a status offense as their MSO are forecast to increase 26% or 566 per year (373 males, 193 females) during the FY 2007 FY2011 period. While not all of these youth will be committed, they will increase the need for RYDC beds and/or administrative actions related to a Community Placement while awaiting adjudication. Over a three-year period, the ALOS for committed youth with a status offense has increased 32-days or 26%.
Public Order. Youth with a public order offense as their most serious offense are forecast to increase 32% or 574 per year (362 males, 213 females) during the FY 2007 FY2011 period. While not all of these youth will be committed, they will increase the need for RYDC beds and/or administrative actions related to a Community Placement while awaiting adjudication. Over a three-year period, the ALOS for committed youth with a public order offense has increased 79-days or 55%.
Property. On average, youth with property offenses are forecast to increase 23% or 531 per year (473 males, 59 females). Since many youth with property offenses will be committed, they will increase the need for RYDC beds prior to adjudication, as well as eventually increasing the use of YDC Long-Term beds. Over a three-year period, the ALOS for committed youth with a property offense has increased 62-days or 31%.

Rate and % Change in Forecasted MSOs at Intake FY2007 - FY2011*

INTAKE MSO

Rate of Change**

% Change

Drug Selling

+ 122

53

Drug Use

+ 182

27

Property

+ 531

23

Public Order

+ 574

32

Non-Violent Sex

- 22

-38

Status

+ 566

26

Traffic

+ 45

4

Violent

+ 615

33

Violent Sex

+ 9

5

Technical

+ 106

20

Weapons

+ 163

48

* Separate study of MSOs at Intake FY04-FY06, n= 117,954

** Change in number of youth per year

ALOS for Commitment Releases

in FY2004 and FY2006

MSO
Drug Selling Drug Use Property Public Order Non-Violent Sex Status Traffic Violent Violent Sex Technical Weapons
Total

ALOS

FY2004 FY2006

273

168

164

165

202

264

143

222

135

261

125

157

108

344

271

356

259

477

102

150

211

437

179

263

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DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011
Trends in the Legal Status and Placement Forecasts

Legal Status Overview

Legal Status Intake

2004

2006

Admissions

%Change %Change

2011 FY04- FY06-

FY06

FY11

Average Length of Stay (ALOS)

2004

2006

%Change %Change

2011 FY04- FY06-

FY06

FY11

Average Daily Population (ADP)

2004

2006

%Change %Change

2011 FY04- FY06-

FY06

FY11

37,141 43,235 57,541 16.4%

54.9%

46

51

61

10.9% 32.6% 4,534 6,881 12,462 51.8% 174.9%

Probation

13,245 10,620 9,981 -19.8% -24.6% 206 209 212

1.5%

2.9% 7,326 6,154 4,145 -16.0% -43.4%

Total Commitments

3,032 3,261 3,743 7.6%

23.4% 474 465 439 -1.9%

-7.4% 3,891 4,058 4,483 4.3%

15.2%

Regular Commitments 2,581 2,711 2,960 5.0%

14.7% 403 397 380 -1.5%

-5.7% 2,783 2,676 2,429 -3.8% -12.7%

Designated Felons

397 514 788 29.5% 98.5% 1,122 1,085 988 -3.3% -11.9% 1,053 1,333 2,021 26.6% 91.9%

STP

6,236 3,706 3,157 -40.6% -49.4% 75

64

57 -14.7% -24.0% 1,266 531 317 -58.1% -75.0%

Gray shading indicates policy fixed values

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DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Placements Overview

Placements RYDC, Total

2004

2006

Admissions

%Change %Change

2011 FY04- FY06-

FY06

FY11

Average Length of Stay (ALOS)

2004

2006

%Change %Change

2011 FY04- FY06-

FY06

FY11

Average Daily Population (ADP)

2004

2006

%Change %Change

2011 FY04- FY06-

FY06

FY11

19,265 20,864 24,773 8.3%

28.6%

20

20

21

0.0%

5.0% 1,089 1,158 1,352 6.3%

24.2%

Community, Pre-Adjudication

30,075 34,819 45,809 15.8%

52.3%

53

59

74

11.3% 39.6% 4,225 6,244 11,036 47.8% 161.2%

RYDC, Pre-Adjudication 9,400 13,073 21,948 39.1% 133.5% 9

12

19

33.3% 111.1% 237 456 981 92.4% 313.9%

RYDC, Awating YDC

4,281 4,820 6,083 12.6%

42.1%

28

27

26

-3.6%

-7.1% 342 352 385

2.9%

12.6%

RYDC, Awating STP

5,155 2,070 1,073 -59.8% -79.2% 18

18

19

0.0%

5.6%

258 100

65 -61.2% -74.8%

YDC, Commitments

348 534 997 53.4% 186.5% 211 150

17

-28.9% -91.9% 192 208 230

8.3%

19.8%

YDC, Designated Felons 411 577 976 40.4% 137.5% 491 535 636

9.0%

29.5% 564 731 1,144 29.6% 102.8%

YDC, Superior Court

33

44

71

33.3% 115.2% 351 273 111 -22.2% -68.4% 33

37

46

12.1% 39.4%

YDC, STP

3,553 2,343 2,415 -34.1% -32.0% 59

42

33 -28.8% -44.1% 579 265 188 -54.2% -67.5%

Home Commitments

4,495 4,598 4,875 2.3%

8.5%

162 156 143

-3.7% -11.7% 1,992 2,089 2,335 4.9%

17.2%

Non-Secure Residential 3,712 3,182 1,906 -14.3% -48.7% 125 132 146

5.6%

16.8% 1,196 1,111 929 -7.1% -22.3%

Probation in Community 13,345 10,683 9,389 -19.9% -29.6% 199 200 195 with Supervision Gray shading indicates policy fixed values

0.5%

-2.0% 7,113 5,825 2,869 -18.1% -59.7%

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DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011
Facility Bed Capacity Forecasts
Regional Youth Detention Centers
In FY2006, the total bed capacity of DJJ's 22 RYDCs was 1,287: 290 beds allocated for females and 997 for males. Separate quarterly forecasts were made for males and females.
RYDC beds allocated for male detainees are forecast to reach 100% utilization in the fourth
quarter of FY2007 (during the April 1 to June 30 quarter).
RYDC beds allocated for female detainees are forecast to reach 100% utilization in the first
quarter of FY2011 (during the July 1 to September 30 quarter). .
Youth Development Campuses
In FY2006, there were 120 beds allocated at Macon YDC for females receiving long-term sentences and 940 for males at other YDCs.
YDC Long-Term beds for Males are forecast to reach 100% utilization in the third quarter of
FY2007 (during the January 1 to March 31 quarter).
YDC Long-Term beds for Females are forecast to reach 100% utilization in the fourth quarter of
FY2008 (during the April 1 to June 30 quarter).
Impact of Senate Bill 134 on DJJ Populations
Senate Bill 134 had, as anticipated, a large impact on the number of admissions to STP. In the first year it became effective (on July 1, 2005) admissions decreased 36%; dropping from 5,802 admissions in FY2005 to 3,706 in FY2006.
The decline in the average daily population (ADP) showed an even larger decrease (53%); dropping from 1,118 to 531 youth. Inspection of the quarterly data for FY2006 suggests that FY2007 data are needed to assess the full impact of SB134. For example, since the majority of STP dispositions have been accompanied with a period of probation, some of the decrease in probation dispositions occurring in FY2006 (dropping from 13,047 in FY2005 to 10,620 in FY2006) might be the result of the effects of SB 134.

Forecast of Secure Bed Capacity

Percent Bed Capacity by Quarters

FY
7/1/03 10/1/03 1/1/04 4/1/04 7/1/04 10/1/04 1/1/05 4/1/05 7/1/05 10/1/05 1/1/06 4/1/06

Male

RYDC 76% 84 89 96 89 97 91 96 86 89 95 97

YDC 76% 76 75 75 75 77 79 84 87 92 95 96

Female
RYDC YDC 68% 61% 72 61 82 60 84 60 75 66 88 63 82 58 93 64 78 67 82 81 76 87 85 87

7/1/06 97 96 86 83 10/1/06 98 98 87 86 1/1/07 99 100% 88 88 4/1/07 101% 102 89 91 7/1/07 102 104 89 93 10/1/07 103 107 90 95 1/1/08 104 109 91 98 4/1/08 105 111 92 100% 7/1/08 106 113 93 103 10/1/08 107 115 94 105 1/1/09 108 117 95 107 4/1/09 109 119 96 110 7/1/09 110 121 96 112 10/1/09 111 123 97 114 1/1/10 112 126 98 117 4/1/10 113 128 99 119

7/1/10 114 130 100% 122

10/1/10 115 132 101 124

1/1/11 116 134 102 126

4/1/11 118 136 102 129

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

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DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011
INTRODUCTION
Mission
The Department of Juvenile Justice's (DJJ) mission is to:
To protect and serve the citizens of Georgia by holding youthful offenders accountable for their actions, through the delivery of effective services, in appropriate settings, establishing youth in their communities as law abiding citizens.
This mission is consistent with a balanced and restorative approach to juvenile justice where youth are held accountable for their offenses and are responsible for restitution to the victim and the community.
In support of its mission, DJJ provides supervision, detention and a wide range of treatment and educational services for youth referred to it by the juvenile courts. DJJ furnishes assistance or delinquency prevention services for youth under its supervision through collaborative efforts with other public, private, and community entities. The department established a regional system in July 2001 as the first step toward moving service planning and delivery closer to the local level. The Department now consists of 13 Districts within five Regions.
Staffing The above-stated mission was carried out in FY06 with a staff of 4,780 employees managing programs, services, and facilities throughout the state with an annual operating budget of $297 million in State funds. The majority (61%) of the State's funding for the department is used in the operation of secure facilities: 22 Regional Youth Detention Centers and 8 Youth Development Campuses.
Expenditures on community corrections comprise the next largest section of the budget (30%) with the remainder spent on administration (9%). The department typically serves over 54,000 youth annually in various settings. The average daily population of youth in FY06 for the department's service populations was 22,715. On average, only 2,552 of these youth are in a secure facility on any one day.
Services
The department serves both pre-adjudicated and post-adjudicated youth. Pre-adjudicated youth who are in intake status are served in one of 22 Regional Youth Detention Centers (RYDC) or in a home/community placement. Post-adjudicated youth can be served in a community placement, probation, a short-term program (STP), or in a Youth Development Campus (YDC). Post-adjudicated youth who are awaiting placement can also be held in an RYDC. (See Appendix A for more information).

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DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011
Change in Forecasting Methodology
To ensure that it is better prepared to address the needs of youthful offenders that are likely to come under its supervision in the future, DJJ uses an analytic method that combines departmental knowledge about policy changes and program initiatives with data from past years to forecast secure bed needs and non-secure populations for the next five years.
The model, chosen several years ago for the forecasting project, is a modification of a model published by the Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention in 2001.3 DJJ's modifications take into account the specific programs, services, and special calculation capabilities that are now built into the databases of the Georgia juvenile justice system (the model's basic elements are shown in the diagram on the right).
The number of admissions, average length of stay (ALOS), and the average daily population (ADP) for all Legal Status and Placement data in DJJ's historical records, dating from FY2000 to the present, are now automatically aggregated at the regional and statewide level by fiscal year and successive quarters in a fiscal year.
The historical data for Admissions, ALOS, and ADP are used in a statistical routine to generate a series of linear regression equations that forecast future values for a particular combination of Legal Status, Placement, descriptor, and time unit, e.g., the ADP of Designated Felons in a YDC two years and/or eight quarters in the future.

Elements in the DJJ Population Forecasting Model

Region
1 2 3 4 5 State

Gender Male
Female Total

* Non-Secure Residential ** Average Length of Stay in days *** Average Daily Population

Legal Status

Placement

Descriptors

Intake
Regular Commitments
Designated Felon
Commitments
Superior Court Sentenced Youth
Short Term Program (STP)

RYDC Community
NS* Residential
YDC
Total

Admissions ALOS** ADP***

Time Units
Quarters From (FY02)
Years From (FY02)

Probation

Total

3 Jeffery Butts and William Allen, "Anticipating Space Needs in Juvenile Detention and Correctional Facilities", Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention, March 2001.

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DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Special Features of the Forecasting Methodology

Historical Period (FY2002 FY2006). The service population forecast consists of two parts. The first part is called the historical period. It consists of data on Admissions, ALOS, and ADP related to the basic elements in DJJ's population forecasting model. These data were obtained from various juvenile tracking system (JTS) databases for the FY2002 - FY2006 period.

Rate of Change. A key step in performing a linear regression analysis on DJJ's

historical data is determining how the data changed over time; that is, calculating its

6

average rate of change. Technically, the outcome of this process is called the

regression equation's slope. In a computer program like Excel, the rate of change or

5

slope is equivalent to a linear trend line for a data set. 4

Y (variable of interest)

The rate of change for a data set indicates how much the variable being examined; 3
say, the average daily population in YDCs, changed with each increment in the time

measure. The diagram on the right shows a fictitious data set with a slope equal to 2
one. An equation with a slope of "one" tells us that each additional quarter of a year

or full year was associated with one increment in the variable under study.

1

slope (b) =1

Y = a + bX

Forecast Data Tables. In the forecast's data tables, you will find that rates of

0

change vary widely. They range from negative numbers (showing decreasing rates)

1

2

3

4

5

to quite large positive numbers (showing increasing rates). For example, in the study

X (Time periods)

of the most serious offenses (MSOs) at intake, youth with violent offenses were

found to be increasing 615 per year (rate of change = +615).

Data tables for all Legal Status and Placement forecasts provide the rate of change (labeled either "Av/Yr" or "Av/Qrt") for the historical data sets in the last row of the table; similar to the table in the sidebar. In the summary table for "Total Admissions", the rate of change (Av/Yr) for males in the FY2004 FY2006 historical period was 2,174 and 873 for females.

FY 2004 2005 2006

Total Admissons

Male 24,336 24,334 28,684

Female 12,805 13,066 14,551

Total 37,141 37,400 43,235

Forecast Period (FY2007 FY2011). In the second part of the forecasting process, the various regression equations developed from the historical data sets are used to calculate new data values for future periods. This means all forecasted values mirror the rate of change found in the historical data.

2007 2008 2009 2010

30,133 32,307 34,481 36,655

15,220 16,093 16,966 17,839

45,353 48,400 51,447 54,494

2011

38,829

18,712

57,541

Preliminary Analysis and Quarterly Data Trends. Previous DJJ population forecasts have used

Av/Yr.

2,174

873

3,047

five years of historical data to forecast population characteristics for the next five years. Since data

Forecasts are shaded yellow

for successive quarters of a fiscal year were added to this forecast's databases, this meant the

historical and forecasting periods would each consist of 20 successive quarters. However, a preliminary analysis of a number of Legal Status data sets covering

20 quarters (FY2002 FY2006) indicated the presence of two rather distinct historical trends. The first trend was characterized by a negative slope or rate of

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DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011
change, showing a period of decreasing population figures over about eight quarters (FY2002 FY2003). The second trend was characterized by a positive slope or rate of change, showing a period of increasing population figures over about 12 quarters (FY2004 FY2006). Visually, the full 20-quarter historical period generated a bowl shaped graph. Since such a distribution is not suited to a linear regression analysis, the historical period for this forecast was restricted to the most recent 12 quarters (FY2004 FY2006).
Special Note: Linear regression equations can generate "zero" or negative values. For all DJJ data sets, such values are meaningless; although, they are generally indicating that the data set changed dramatically during its historical period. In the forecast's data tables, we have occasionally included some negative values for information and discussion purposes.

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DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

POPULATION GROWTH

Two Populations Affecting Forecasts
There are two external populations of juveniles that influence DJJ's statewide and regional Legal Status and Placement forecasts: the growth of the at-risk youth population and changes in the number of juvenile offenders.
Growth of At-Risk Youth
The number of at-risk youth 10 to 16 years of age is estimated to increase 11% from FY2004 through FY2011 (an increase of 100,470 youth). This means that this population will be increasing about 14,200 youth per year.
The majority of the increase in at-risk youth will come from two DJJ regions: Region 3 (accounting for 51% of the increase) and, Region 2 (accounting for 24%).

% Increase in the At-Risk Population from 2002

15.4%

8.0%

13.2%

8.9%

10.1%

11.5%

6.1%

3.9%

1.9%

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

(See Appendix B for more detailed regional information).

Growth of Juvenile Offenders
Admissions of juvenile offenders 10 to 16 years of age are forecast to increase 55% from FY2004 through FY2011 (an increase of 20,400 youth). For DJJ this means that young offenders will be increasing about 3,050 per year, on the average.
The majority of the increase in at-risk youth will come from two DJJ Regions: Region 3 (33%) and, Region 4 (21%).

% Increase in the Intake Population from 2002 56.2%
49.6% 43.0% 36.4% 28.1% 29.8%

10.1% 10.8% 1.0%

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

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DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011 Characteristics of the Intake Population

Race/Ethnicity Distribution
The race/ethnicity distributions shown in the sidebars are based on DJJ intake data, not US Census estimates of the population or the composition of Georgia's at-risk population.4
Growth in the at-risk population does not necessarily reflect growth in the populations that the department actually supervises. For example, in 2004 about 60.6% of Georgia's at-risk youth were classified as White while 36.6% were classified as Black. Neither of these estimates of youth at-risk bears much correspondence to the race/ethnic breakdown of youth at intake.
Changes in local economic conditions, new policing patterns and initiatives, the legal system, and public school regulations all have a more direct impact on the composition of DJJ populations than the estimated growth of ethnic/racial groups. It is important for planning purposes for DJJ to know the trends in the statewide and regional composition of its intake population.

Percent Race/Ethnic Groups at Intake*

Race/ Ethnicity

FY04

FY05

FY06

% Change FY04-FY06

White

47.4

44.4

42.0 -11.4%

Black

46.9

49.6

52.1

11.1%

Hispanic

4.2

4.3

4.3

2.4%

Other

1.5

1.7

1.6

* Distribution based on youth with a classified MSO at Intake

6.7%

Intake Trends. All Non-White groups of youth show an increasing presence at intake. Moreover, the race/ethnic groups DJJ serves are not distributed evenly across the State. White offenders are concentrated in Region 1; Black offenders are concentrated in Region 4 and Region 3; Hispanic offenders are concentrated in Region 3; Other types of offenders (primarily Asian youth) are concentrated in Region 3.
Different mixes of race/ethnic groups, variations in economic conditions, population densities and other factors interact to produce different regional offense trends. For example, the two classes of offenses showing the highest rates of growth in a region are as follows:
Region 1: Public Order and Drug Selling offenses
Region 2: Status and Drug Use offenses
Region 3: Violent and Property offenses
Region 4: Violent and Property offenses
Region 5: Public Order and Traffic offenses

Percent Race/Ethnic Groups at Intake by Region*

Race/ Ethnicity

Fiscal Year

R1

R2

R3

White Black Hispanic Other

04 80.1 50.4 35.6

06 75.5 44.5 27.3

04 14.6 43.7 55.8

06 19.3 49.5 64.0

04

3.9 4.3 6.3

06

3.9 4.5 6.8

04

1.4 1.5 2.4

06

1.3 1.5 1.9

* Distribution based on youth with a classified MSO at Intake

R4
34.3 30.7 62.6 66.5 2.1 1.8 1.0 1.0

R5
45.7 43.8 49.2 50.3 3.9 3.9 1.2 2.0

4 Intake data from the supplementary MSO study.

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17

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011
Statewide Offense Trends
Overall Offenses. We can see in the sidebar that only one of DJJ's eleven offense classes is forecast to show a decreasing rate at intake during the FY 2007 2011 period: Non-Violent Sex offenses. The remaining ten classes are forecast to show rate increases ranging from +9 for Violent Sex offenses to +615 for Violent offenses.
Several of the offense classes showing the largest rate increases warrant special mention.
Violent. On average, youth with violent offenses are forecast to increase 33% or 615 per year (450 males, 165 females). Since most youth with violent offenses will be committed, they will increase the need for RYDC beds prior to adjudication, as well as eventually increasing the use of YDC Long-Term beds.
Public Order. Youth with a public order offense as their most serious offense are forecast to increase 32% or 574 per year (362 males, 213 females). While not all of these youth will be committed, they will increase the need for RYDC beds and/or administrative actions related to a Community Placement while awaiting adjudication.
Status. Youth with a status offense as their MSO are forecast to increase 26% or 566 per year (373 males, 193 females). While not all of these youth will be committed, they will increase the need for RYDC beds and/or administrative actions related to a Community Placement while awaiting adjudication.
Property. On average, youth with property offenses are forecast to increase 23% or 531 per year (473 males, 59 females). Since many youth with property offenses will be committed, they will increase the need for RYDC beds prior to adjudication, as well as eventually increasing the use of YDC Long-Term beds.
Drug Use. Youth with drug use offenses as their MSO are forecast to increase 27% or 182 per year (151 males, 193 females). While not all of these youth will be committed, they will increase the need for RYDC beds and/or administrative actions related to a Community Placement while awaiting adjudication.
Weapons. Youth with weapon offenses as their MSO are forecast to increase 48% or 163 per year (150 males, 13 females) during the FY 2007 FY2011 period. While not all of these youth will be committed, they will increase the need for RYDC beds and/or administrative actions related to a Community Placement while awaiting adjudication.

Most Serious Av. Change Offense (MSO) per Yr.*

Drug Sales

Males

122 87

Females

35

Drug Use

Males

182 151

Females

31

Property

Males

531 473

Females

59

Public Order Males

574 362

Females

213

Non-Violent Sex Males

-22 -4

Females

-18

Status

Males

566 373

Females

193

Traffic

Males

45 -24

Females

68

Violent

Males

615 450

Females

165

Violent Sex

Males

9 9

Females

0

Technical

Males

106 94

Females

12

Weapons

Males

163 150

Females

13

Total

2,888

Males

2,119

Females

769

*FY2004 - FY2006 historical period

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18

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Regional Offense Trends
The sidebar shows the rates of change for an MSO category in a region. Rates in red are substantially different from the averaged regional rates. Additional details for each region are presented in Appendix B.
Drug Sales: Regions 3, 1, and 2 show the highest rates of growth in this offense. Offenders with this MSO are decreasing only in Region 4.
Drug Use: Regions 3 and 2 show the highest rates of growth in this offense. Offenders in the remaining regions have rates falling below the average regional rate.
Property: Regions 3 and 4 show the highest rates of growth in this offense. Offenders in the remaining three regions have rates falling below the average regional rate.
Public Order: Regions 5 and 1 show the highest rates of growth in this offense. Offenders in the remaining three regions have rates falling below the average regional rate.
Non-Violent Sex: Regions 4 and 3 show the highest rates of growth in this offense. Offenders in the remaining three regions have decreasing rates.
Status: Region 2 shows the highest rate of growth in this offense. Regions 5 and 1 have decreasing rates. Regions 3 and 4 have rates falling below the average regional rate.
Traffic: Regions 5 and 4 show the highest rates of growth in this offense. Offenders in the remaining three regions have decreasing rates.
Violent: Regions 3 and 4 show the highest rates of growth in this offense. Only Region 2 has a decreasing rate. Offenders in the remaining three regions have rates falling below the average regional rate.
Violent Sex: Regions 2, 4, and 1 show the highest rates of growth in this offense. Offenders in Regions 5 and 3 have decreasing rates.
Technical: Regions 5 and 3 show the highest rates of growth in this offense. Only Region 2 has a decreasing rate.
Weapons: Regions 3 and 5 show the highest rates of growth in this offense. Offenders in the remaining three regions have rates falling below the average regional rate.

MSO

Yearly Rate of Change* DJJ Region

1

2

3

4

5 Av.

Drug Sales

36 35 37 -4

Males 25 26 25 -10

Females 11

9 13

6

Drug Use Males
Females

11 3 9

64 63 2

75 55 20

19 19 -1

Property Males
Females

43 34 10

64 215 174 84 203 133 -20 12 42

Public Order

130

Males 97

Females 33

38 39 -2

99 113 47 50 53 64

Non-Violent Sex

-2 -28 2

8

Males

-2

-5

-2

5

Females

0 -23

4

4

Status

Males Females

-7 425 4 271
-11 154

93 53 41

76 53 23

Traffic

-115 Males -65 Females -50

-32 -38 7

-12 -14 3

40 2
39

Violent

117 -54 335 171 Males 83 -18 221 123 Females 34 -36 114 48

Violent Sex

6

14 -7

7

Males

6 16

-6

3

Females

1

-3

-1

4

Technical Males
Females

8 -15 40 12

-1

7 27

9

9 -22 13

4

Weapons

22 28 67

2

Males 20 30 69

2

Females

2

-3

-2

1

Total

249 538 943 617

Males 203 475 676 386

Females 46 64 267 231

*FY2004 - FY2006 historical period

Red indicates an offense rate higher than the average

17 21 -4
14 12 2
36 20 16
195 130 66
-3 0 -3
-21 -8
-14
62 52 10
47 42 5
-11 -10 -1
62 52 10
45 30 15
441
340
101

24 17 7
37 30 6
106 95 12
115 73 43
-5 -1 -4
113 75 39
-11 -13 2
123 90 33
2 2 0
21 19 3
33 30 3
558
416
142

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19

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Office of Technology and Information Services

20

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011
LEGAL STATUS FORECASTS

Office of Technology and Information Services

21

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Intake

FY Totals by Quarter

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

FY

M

F Total M F Total M F Total

7/1/03 5,664 2,961 8,625 48 47 48 2,653 1,346 3,999

10/1/03 6,336 3,254 9,590 44 44 44 3,094 1,488 4,582

1/1/04 6,592 3,500 10,092 45 42 44 3,190 1,481 4,671 4/1/04 5,740 3,090 8,830 50 43 47 3,189 1,545 4,734

7/1/04 5,597 2,885 8,482 49 45 47 2,820 1,348 4,168

10/1/04 5,911 3,219 9,130 45 39 43 3,093 1,518 4,611 1/1/05 6,635 3,668 10,303 45 41 44 3,334 1,666 4,999

4/1/05 6,191 3,294 9,485 45 43 44 3,661 1,834 5,495

7/1/05 6,059 3,033 9,092 48 45 47 3,628 1,652 5,280 10/1/05 6,820 3,608 10,428 52 47 50 4,372 2,025 6,397 1/1/06 8,126 4,089 12,215 57 50 55 4,886 2,148 7,034 4/1/06 7,674 3,821 11,495 51 45 49 5,947 2,664 8,611

7/1/06 7,444 3,803 11,247 52 46 50 5,146 2,326 7,472

10/1/06 7,597 3,870 11,467 53 46 51 5,375 2,419 7,794

1/1/07 7,751 3,937 11,687 54 47 51 5,605 2,511 8,116 4/1/07 7,904 4,004 11,908 54 47 52 5,834 2,603 8,437

7/1/07 8,058 4,071 12,128 55 47 52 6,063 2,696 8,759

10/1/07 8,211 4,137 12,349 55 47 53 6,293 2,788 9,081 1/1/08 8,365 4,204 12,569 56 48 53 6,522 2,880 9,402

4/1/08 8,518 4,271 12,790 57 48 54 6,751 2,973 9,724

7/1/08 8,672 4,338 13,010 57 48 54 6,981 3,065 10,046 10/1/08 8,826 4,405 13,230 58 48 55 7,210 3,157 10,367

1/1/09 8,979 4,472 13,451 59 49 55 7,439 3,249 10,689

4/1/09 9,133 4,539 13,671 59 49 56 7,669 3,342 11,010 7/1/09 9,286 4,605 13,892 60 49 56 7,898 3,434 11,332 10/1/09 9,440 4,672 14,112 61 49 57 8,127 3,526 11,654

1/1/10 9,593 4,739 14,332 61 50 57 8,357 3,619 11,975 4/1/10 9,747 4,806 14,553 62 50 58 8,586 3,711 12,297

7/1/10 9,900 4,873 14,773 62 50 58 8,815 3,803 12,619

10/1/10 10,054 4,940 14,994 63 50 59 9,045 3,896 12,940 1/1/11 10,208 5,007 15,214 64 51 59 9,274 3,988 13,262 4/1/11 10,361 5,073 15,435 64 51 60 9,503 4,080 13,584

Av/Qrt 154 67 220 0.64 0.26 0.51 229 92 322 Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Youth

16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000
8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000
0

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7/1/03 10/1/03 1/1/04 4/1/04 7/1/04 10/1/04 1/1/05 4/1/05 7/1/05 10/1/05 1/1/06 4/1/06 7/1/06 10/1/06 1/1/07 4/1/07 7/1/07 10/1/07 1/1/08 4/1/08 7/1/08 10/1/08 1/1/09 4/1/09 7/1/09 10/1/09 1/1/10 4/1/10 7/1/10 10/1/10 1/1/11 4/1/11

Legal Status Forecasts
Intake

Actual and Forecasted Admissions at Intake

Male

Female

Total

22

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Summary for Intake

Total Admissons

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male Female Total 24,336 12,805 37,141 24,334 13,066 37,400 28,684 14,551 43,235 30,133 15,220 45,353 32,307 16,093 48,400 34,481 16,966 51,447 36,655 17,839 54,494 38,829 18,712 57,541

Av/Yr. 2,174 873 3,047 Forecasts are shaded yellow

ALOS

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male 47 46 52 54 57 60 63 66

Female 44 42 47 47 49 50 52 53

Av/Yr. 3

1

Forecasts are shaded yellow

Total 46 44 51 52 54 56 59 61
2

ADP

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male 3,057 3,252 4,743 5,370 6,213 7,056 7,899 8,742

Female Total 1,477 4,534 1,604 4,856 2,138 6,881 2,400 7,770 2,730 8,943 3,060 10,116 3,391 11,289 3,721 12,462

Av/Yr. 843 330 1,173 Forecasts are shaded yellow

Total Admissions: DJJ admissions are forecast to increase by 3,047 per year (2,174 males, 873 females) during the FY2007FY2011 period.
In FY2006 intake increased 5,835 over the preceding year; an increase of 14.8% more youth than would have been forecast using FY2004FY2005 data. The quarterly admissions data indicates that most of this increase occurred in the last two quarters of FY2006. The real question is whether such large increases will continue. New data for the first quarter of FY2007 indicates that intake decreased about 950 youth from the fourth quarter of FY2006. Such a decrease does conform to the seasonal trend shown the FY2004-FY2006. Regional Administrators and district staff (Regions 2 and 4) expressed the opinion that increases in intake will continue over the forecast period. Both RAs felt that population growth, including recent migration, will sustain the growth in admissions.
Average Length of Stay: The average length of stay in intake status is forecast to increase 2-days per year during the FY2007FY2011 period.
Average Daily Population: The average daily population in intake status is forecast to increase 1,173 per year (843 males, 330 females) during the FY2007FY2011 period.
The increase in the ADP is primarily the result of increased admissions and not a substantial increase in the ALOS.

Office of Technology and Information Services

23

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Probation

FY Totals by Quarter

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M F Total M F Total M F Total

7/1/03 2,169 865 3,034 204 205 204 5,091 1,958 7,050

10/1/03 2,388 950 3,338 210 194 205 5,145 2,077 7,222

1/1/04 2,409 1,006 3,415 205 207 205 5,262 2,120 7,382

4/1/04 2,438 1,019 3,457 209 205 208 5,272 2,139 7,411

7/1/04 2,241 848 3,089 204 201 203 5,199 2,067 7,266

10/1/04 2,334 1,002 3,336 200 189 197 5,132 2,012 7,144

1/1/05 2,414 983 3,397 205 197 203 5,018 2,042 7,060

4/1/05 2,295 930 3,225 199 194 197 4,879 1,956 6,835

7/1/05 1,872 724 2,596 205 200 203 4,597 1,878 6,476

10/1/05 2,005 769 2,774 200 212 204 4,387 1,777 6,164

1/1/06 1,997 769 2,766 223 237 227 4,257 1,741 5,997

4/1/06 1,738 745 2,483 196 211 200 4,085 1,687 5,772

7/1/06 1,881 751 2,632 204 215 207 4,187 1,727 5,914

10/1/06 1,872 752 2,624 204 216 210 4,111 1,702 5,813

1/1/07 1,863 753 2,616 203 217 210 4,034 1,677 5,711

4/1/07 1,854 755 2,608 202 218 210 3,958 1,652 5,610

7/1/07 1,845 756 2,601 201 219 210 3,882 1,627 5,509

10/1/07 1,836 757 2,593 201 220 210 3,806 1,602 5,408

1/1/08 1,827 758 2,585 200 220 210 3,730 1,577 5,307

4/1/08 1,818 759 2,577 199 221 210 3,654 1,552 5,206

7/1/08 1,809 760 2,569 198 222 210 3,578 1,527 5,105

10/1/08 1,800 762 2,562 198 223 211 3,502 1,502 5,004

1/1/09 1,791 763 2,554 197 224 211 3,426 1,477 4,903

4/1/09 1,782 764 2,546 196 225 211 3,350 1,452 4,802

7/1/09 1,773 765 2,538 195 226 211 3,274 1,427 4,701

10/1/09 1,764 766 2,530 195 227 211 3,198 1,402 4,600

1/1/10 1,755 767 2,523 194 228 211 3,121 1,377 4,499

4/1/10 1,746 769 2,515 193 229 211 3,045 1,352 4,398

7/1/10 1,737 770 2,507 193 230 211 2,969 1,327 4,297

10/1/10 1,728 771 2,499 192 231 212 2,893 1,302 4,196

1/1/11 1,719 772 2,491 191 232 212 2,817 1,277 4,095

4/1/11 1,710 773 2,483 190 233 212 2,741 1,252 3,993

Av/Qrt -9.0 1.2 -7.8 -0.7 1.0 0.1 -76.1 -25.0 -101.1

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Youth

Legal Status Forecasts
Probation
Actual and Forecasted Probation Admissions
4,000
Male Female Total
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0 Jul-03Oct-03Jan-04Apr-04Jul-04Oct-04Jan-05Apr-05Jul-05Oct-05Jan-06Apr-06Jul-06Oct-06Jan-07Apr-07Jul-07Oct-07Jan-08Apr-08Jul-08Oct-08Jan-09Apr-09Jul-09Oct-09Jan-10Apr-10Jul-10Oct-10Jan-11Apr-11

Office of Technology and Information Services

24

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Summary for Probation

Total Admissons

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male 9,405 9,283 7,613 7,469 7,326 7,182 7,038 6,895

Female 3,840 3,764 3,007 3,011 3,030 3,049 3,068 3,086

Total 13,245 13,047 10,620 10,481 10,356 10,231 10,106 9,981

Av/Yr. -144

19

Forecasts are shaded yellow

-125

ALOS

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male 207 202 206 203 200 197 194 191

Female 203 195 215 216 220 224 228 232

Av/Yr. -3

4

Forecasts are shaded yellow

Total 206 200 209 209 210 211 211 212
1

ADP

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male 5,236 5,100 4,367 4,073 3,768 3,464 3,160 2,855

Female 2,090 2,036 1,787 1,689 1,590 1,490 1,390 1,290

Av/Yr. -304 -100 Forecasts are shaded yellow

Total 7,326 7,136 6,154 5,762 5,358 4,954 4,549 4,145
-404

Total Admissions: Probation admissions are forecast to decrease 125 per year (144 fewer males, 19 more females) during the FY2007FY2011 period.
In FY2006, admissions decreased 2,427 from the preceding year; this represented 17.3% fewer youth than would have been forecast using FY2004FY2005 data. The quarterly admissions data indicates that most of this decrease occurred in FY2006.
Regional Administrators and district staff (Regions 2 and 4) expressed the opinion that decreases in probation admissions will be maintained over the forecast period. Both RAs felt that recent legislation affecting Student Attendance, especially Truancy, has not reduced probation admissions.
Average Length of Stay: The average length of stay while on probation is forecast to increase 1-day per year during the FY2007FY2011 period.
All the increase in ALOS can be attributed to slightly longer probation periods for females (+4 days per year increase). The ALOS for males will decrease 3-days per year.
Average Daily Population: The average daily population of youth on probation is forecast to decrease 404 per year (304 fewer males, 100 fewer females) during the FY2007FY2011 period.
Since the ALOS for probation increased only 1-day per year, the large decrease in the ADP is the result of the reduced number of admissions to probation.

Office of Technology and Information Services

25

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Total Commitments

FY Totals by Quarter

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

FY

M F Total M F Total M F Total

7/1/03 590 165 755 10/1/03 572 151 723 1/1/04 638 171 809 4/1/04 586 158 744 7/1/04 616 188 804 10/1/04 598 166 764 1/1/05 494 140 634 4/1/05 520 154 674 7/1/05 592 166 758 10/1/05 686 176 862 1/1/06 678 164 842 4/1/06 650 149 799

452 386 512 443 511 460 480 389 491 377 472 436 485 460 456 421 498 425 453 378 482 469 468 405

438 3,063 716 3,779 498 3,111 736 3,847 501 3,125 741 3,866 460 3,185 758 3,944 465 3,211 771 3,982 465 3,278 787 4,065 479 3,220 770 3,990 447 3,108 714 3,822 484 3,105 718 3,823 439 3,210 755 3,965 479 3,311 785 4,096 454 3,417 798 4,214

7/1/06 638 160 798 10/1/06 643 159 803 1/1/07 649 159 808 4/1/07 654 159 813 7/1/07 660 158 818 10/1/07 666 158 823

469 425 467 426 465 427 463 428 462 428 460 429

460 3,321 778 4,099 458 3,340 782 4,122 457 3,359 785 4,145 456 3,379 789 4,168 455 3,398 793 4,191 454 3,417 796 4,214

1/1/08 671 157 829 4/1/08 677 157 834 7/1/08 682 157 839 10/1/08 688 156 844 1/1/09 693 156 849 4/1/09 699 155 854

458 430 456 430 455 431 453 432 451 433 449 433

452 3,437 800 4,236 451 3,456 804 4,259 450 3,475 807 4,282 449 3,494 811 4,305 448 3,514 815 4,328 447 3,533 818 4,351

7/1/09 704 155 859 10/1/09 710 155 865 1/1/10 715 154 870 4/1/10 721 154 875 7/1/10 727 154 880 10/1/10 732 153 885

448 434 446 435 444 435 442 436 441 437 439 438

445 3,552 822 4,374 444 3,572 826 4,397 443 3,591 829 4,420 442 3,610 833 4,443 441 3,630 837 4,466 439 3,649 840 4,489

1/1/11 738 153 890 437 438 438 3,668 844 4,512 4/1/11 743 152 896 435 439 437 3,687 848 4,535

Av/Qrt 6 0 5 -1.75 0.72 -1.19 19 4 23
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Youth

1,000 800 600 400 200 0

7/1/03 10/1/03 1/1/04 4/1/04 7/1/04 10/1/04 1/1/05 4/1/05 7/1/05 10/1/05 1/1/06 4/1/06 7/1/06 10/1/06 1/1/07 4/1/07 7/1/07 10/1/07 1/1/08 4/1/08 7/1/08 10/1/08 1/1/09 4/1/09 7/1/09 10/1/09 1/1/10 4/1/10 7/1/10 10/1/10 1/1/11 4/1/11

Legal Status Forecasts
Total Commitments

Actual and Forecasted Total Commitment Admissions

Male

Female

Total

Office of Technology and Information Services

26

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Summary for Total Commitments

Total Admissons

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male 2,387 2,228 2,606 2,626 2,736 2,845 2,955 3,064

Female 645 648 655 659 664 669 674 679

Total 3,032 2,876 3,261 3,285 3,400 3,514 3,629 3,743

Av/Yr. 110

5

115

Forecasts are shaded yellow

ALOS

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male 489 476 476 467 461 454 448 441

Female 419 424 421 424 425 425 426 427

Av/Yr. -7

1

Forecasts are shaded yellow

Total 474 464 465 458 454 449 444 439
-5

ADP

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male 3,147 3,232 3,288 3,363 3,433 3,504 3,574 3,644

Female 744 767 770 787 800 813 826 839

Av/Yr. 70

13

Forecasts are shaded yellow

Total 3,891 3,999 4,058 4,150 4,233 4,316 4,400 4,483
83

Total Admissions: Commitment admissions are forecast to increase 115 per year (110 males, 5 females) during the FY2007FY2011 period. In FY2006, admissions increased 385 over the preceding year; this represents 14.2% more youth than would have been forecast using FY2004FY2005 data. The quarterly admissions data indicates that most of this decrease occurred in the last three quarters of FY2006.
Average Length of Stay: The average length of stay for commitments is forecast to decrease 5-days per year during the FY2007FY2011 period. Since the ALOS for females showed at slight increase (+1 day per year), the decrease in total ALOS can be attributed to the males' decreasing rate (-7 days per year).
Average Daily Population: The average daily population of commitments is forecast to increase 83 per year (70 males, 13 females) during the FY2007FY2011 period. Since the ALOS decreased slightly, the increase in the ADP reflects the growth in commitments.

Office of Technology and Information Services

27

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Regular Commitments

FY Totals by Quarter

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

FY

M F Total M F Total M F Total

7/1/03 486 157 643 10/1/03 478 142 620 1/1/04 520 162 682 4/1/04 480 155 635 7/1/04 505 177 682 10/1/04 510 159 669 1/1/05 399 128 527 4/1/05 401 140 541 7/1/05 476 156 632 10/1/05 560 163 723 1/1/06 540 156 696 4/1/06 523 137 660

383 374 428 407 405 410 412 381 403 345 395 382 410 428 397 407 403 405 386 352 408 450 381 391

381 2,099 620 2,720 423 2,119 641 2,759 406 2,115 642 2,758 405 2,138 663 2,802 388 2,136 675 2,810 392 2,189 693 2,882 415 2,116 678 2,794 400 1,970 612 2,582 403 1,926 607 2,533 379 1,994 640 2,634 418 2,033 664 2,697 384 2,080 671 2,751

7/1/06 508 148 656 10/1/06 511 147 658 1/1/07 514 146 660 4/1/07 516 145 662 7/1/07 519 144 664 10/1/07 522 144 666 1/1/08 525 143 668 4/1/08 528 142 670 7/1/08 530 141 672 10/1/08 533 141 674 1/1/09 536 140 676 4/1/09 539 139 678 7/1/09 542 138 680 10/1/09 545 137 682 1/1/10 547 137 684 4/1/10 550 136 686 7/1/10 553 135 688 10/1/10 556 134 690 1/1/11 559 133 692 4/1/11 561 133 694

392 406 391 408 390 410 389 412 387 414 386 416 385 418 383 419 382 421 381 423 379 425 378 427 377 429 375 431 374 432 373 434 371 436 370 438 369 440 368 442

396 1,997 656 2,654 395 1,985 657 2,643 395 1,973 658 2,631 394 1,961 659 2,620 394 1,949 660 2,609 393 1,937 661 2,598 393 1,925 662 2,587 392 1,913 663 2,575 391 1,901 664 2,564 391 1,888 664 2,553 390 1,876 665 2,542 390 1,864 666 2,531 389 1,852 667 2,519 389 1,840 668 2,508 388 1,828 669 2,497 388 1,816 670 2,486 387 1,804 671 2,474 386 1,792 672 2,463 386 1,779 673 2,452 385 1,767 673 2,441

Av/Qrt 3 -1 2 -1.31 1.86 -0.56 -12 1 -11
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Youth

1,000 800 600 400 200 0

7/1/03 10/1/03 1/1/04 4/1/04
7/1/04 10/1/04 1/1/05
4/1/05 7/1/05 10/1/05 1/1/06 4/1/06 7/1/06 10/1/06 1/1/07 4/1/07 7/1/07 10/1/07 1/1/08 4/1/08 7/1/08 10/1/08 1/1/09 4/1/09 7/1/09 10/1/09 1/1/10 4/1/10 7/1/10 10/1/10 1/1/11 4/1/11

Legal Status Forecasts
Regular Commitments

Actual and Forecasted Regular Commitment Admissions

Male

Female

Total

Office of Technology and Information Services

28

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Total Admissons

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male 1,965 1,815 2,099 2,094 2,161 2,228 2,295 2,362

Female 616 604 612 607 605 603 601 599

Total 2,581 2,419 2,711 2,700 2,765 2,830 2,895 2,960

Av/Yr. 67

-2

65

Forecasts are shaded yellow

ALOS

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male 407 401 395 390 384 378 372 367

Female 392 393 402 405 410 415 419 424

Av/Yr. -6

5

Forecasts are shaded yellow

Total 403 399 397 393 390 386 383 380
-3

Summary for Regular Commitments
Total Admissions: Regular Commitments are forecast to increase 65 per year (67 more males, 2 fewer females) during the FY2007FY2011 period. In FY2006, admissions increased 292 over the preceding year; this represents a 12% increase. New data for the first quarter of FY2007 indicates that admissions decreased about 50 youth from the fourth quarter of FY2006
Average Length of Stay: The average length of stay for commitments is forecast to decrease 3-days per year during the FY2007FY2011 period. Since the ALOS for females showed at slight increase (+5 day per year), the decrease in total ALOS can be attributed to the males' decreasing rate (-6 days per year).
Average Daily Population: The average daily population of commitments is forecast to decrease 53 per year (55 fewer males, 2 more females) during the FY2007FY2011 period. Since admissions increased, the decrease in the ADP reflects the slightly lower ALOS.

ADP

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male 2,136 2,122 2,025 1,984 1,928 1,873 1,818 1,763

Female 647 670 651 659 661 663 665 667

Av/Yr. -55

2

Forecasts are shaded yellow

Total 2,783 2,792 2,676 2,643 2,590 2,536 2,483 2,429
-53

Office of Technology and Information Services

29

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Designated Felons

FY Totals by Quarter

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

FY

M F Total M F Total M F Total

7/1/03 90 8 98 1,069 839 1,054 919 93 1,012

10/1/03 70 9 79 1,196 1,272 1,203 935 95 1,029

1/1/04 109 9 118 1,160 1,184 1,162 954 99 1,052

200

4/1/04 99 3 102 1,084 600 1,037 989 95 1,084

7/1/04 101 11 112 1,052 1,027 1,050 1,024 97 1,120

10/1/04 78 7 85 1,111 1,187 1,122 1,042 94 1,136

1/1/05 80 11 91 1,083 1,196 1,095 1,054 92 1,146

4/1/05 101 12 113 1,098 1,593 1,118 1,085 99 1,184

7/1/05 114 10 124 1,082 1,156 1,086 1,129 109 1,238

150

10/1/05 118 13 131 1,004 970 1,001 1,173 113 1,287

1/1/06 123 7 130 1,118 1,059 1,113 1,233 120 1,353

4/1/06 118 11 129 1,144 1,142 1,143 1,288 125 1,412

7/1/06 121 11 132 1,080 1,202 1,087 1,277 120 1,397

Youth

10/1/06 124 11 136 1,077 1,218 1,085 1,309 122 1,431

1/1/07 128 12 139 1,074 1,233 1,083 1,341 125 1,466

4/1/07 131 12 143 1,071 1,248 1,081 1,373 128 1,501

100

7/1/07 134 12 146 1,068 1,264 1,079 1,405 130 1,536

10/1/07 137 13 150 1,065 1,279 1,078 1,437 133 1,570

1/1/08 141 13 153 1,062 1,295 1,076 1,469 136 1,605

4/1/08 144 13 157 1,059 1,310 1,074 1,501 138 1,640

7/1/08 147 14 161 1,056 1,325 1,072 1,534 141 1,674

10/1/08 150 14 164 1,053 1,341 1,070 1,566 143 1,709

1/1/09 153 14 168 1,050 1,356 1,069 1,598 146 1,744

50

4/1/09 157 14 171 1,047 1,372 1,067 1,630 149 1,778

7/1/09 160 15 175 1,044 1,387 1,065 1,662 151 1,813

10/1/09 163 15 178 1,040 1,402 1,063 1,694 154 1,848

1/1/10 166 15 182 1,037 1,418 1,061 1,726 157 1,883

4/1/10 170 16 185 1,034 1,433 1,059 1,758 159 1,917

7/1/10 173 16 189 1,031 1,448 1,058 1,790 162 1,952

10/1/10 176 16 192 1,028 1,464 1,056 1,822 165 1,987

0

1/1/11 179 17 196 1,025 1,479 1,054 1,854 167 2,021

4/1/11 183 17 199 1022 1,495 1052 1,886 170 2,056

Av/Qrt 3 0 4 -3.05 15.39 -1.82 32 3 35
Forecast ed values are shaded yellow

7/1/03 10/1/03 1/1/04 4/1/04 7/1/04 10/1/04 1/1/05 4/1/05 7/1/05 10/1/05 1/1/06 4/1/06 7/1/06 10/1/06 1/1/07 4/1/07 7/1/07 10/1/07 1/1/08 4/1/08 7/1/08 10/1/08 1/1/09 4/1/09 7/1/09 10/1/09 1/1/10 4/1/10 7/1/10 10/1/10 1/1/11 4/1/11

Legal Status Forecasts
Designated Felons
Actual and Forecasted Designated Felon Admissions

Male

Female

Total

Office of Technology and Information Services

30

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Total Admissons

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male 368 360 473 505 558 610 663 715

Female 29 41 41 49 55 61 67 73

Total 397 401 514 554 613 671 730 788

Av/Yr. 53

6

59

Forecasts are shaded yellow

Summary for Designated Felons
Total Admissions: Designated Felon admissions are forecast to increase 59 per year (53 males, 6 females) during the FY2007FY2011 period. In FY2006, admissions increased 113 over the preceding year; this represents a 28% increase. New data for the first quarter of FY2007 indicates that admissions continue to grow; increasing 10 youth over the fourth quarter of FY2006

ALOS

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male 1,132 1,083 1,086 1,054 1,031 1,007 984 961

Female 1,017 1,173 1,065 1,133 1,157 1,181 1,205 1,230

Av/Yr. -23

24

Forecasts are shaded yellow

Total 1,122 1,092 1,085 1,062 1,044 1,025 1,006 988
-19

Average Length of Stay: The average length of stay for Designated Felons is forecast to decrease 19-days per year during the FY2007FY2011 period. Since the ALOS for females showed an increase of 24 day per year, the decrease in the total ALOS can be attributed to the males' decreasing rate (-23 days per year).
Average Daily Population: The average daily population of Designated Felons is forecast to increase 140 per year (129 males, 11 females) during the FY2007FY2011 period. Since the ALOS for Designated Felons decreased by 19-days, the increase in the ADP reflects the growth of new admissions.

ADP

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male 957 1,060 1,215 1,336 1,465 1,594 1,723 1,853

Female 96 96 118 125 136 147 157 168

Av/Yr. 129

11

Forecasts are shaded yellow

Total 1,053 1,156 1,333 1,461 1,601 1,741 1,881 2,021
140

Office of Technology and Information Services

31

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

STP

FY Totals by Quarter

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M F Total M F Total M F Total

7/1/03 1,101 373 1,474 77 77 77 948 309 1,257

10/1/03 1,153 370 1,523 80 80 80 968 317 1,285

1/1/04 1,204 422 1,626 76 68 74 902 293 1,194

4/1/04 1,189 424 1,613 69 68 69 965 320 1,286

7/1/04 1,064 353 1,417 67 70 68 854 279 1,133

10/1/04 1,073 407 1,480 71 67 70 835 310 1,145

1/1/05 1,095 395 1,490 73 75 73 792 293 1,085

4/1/05 1,030 385 1,415 71 74 72 779 293 1,072

7/1/05 710 194 904 72 80 74 547 182 729

10/1/05 781 225 1,006 62 71 64 403 116 519

1/1/06 775 169 944 66 67 66 359 93 452

4/1/06 723 129 852 46 52 47 333 70 403

7/1/06 696 163 859 57 64 59 313 91 403 10/1/06 651 139 789 55 63 57 249 68 317 1/1/07 651 139 789 55 63 57 249 68 317 4/1/07 651 139 789 55 63 57 249 68 317 7/1/07 651 139 789 55 63 57 249 68 317 10/1/07 651 139 789 55 63 57 249 68 317 1/1/08 651 139 789 55 63 57 249 68 317 4/1/08 651 139 789 55 63 57 249 68 317 7/1/08 651 139 789 55 63 57 249 68 317 10/1/08 651 139 789 55 63 57 249 68 317 1/1/09 651 139 789 55 63 57 249 68 317 4/1/09 651 139 789 55 63 57 249 68 317 7/1/09 651 139 789 55 63 57 249 68 317 10/1/09 651 139 789 55 63 57 249 68 317 1/1/10 651 139 789 55 63 57 249 68 317 4/1/10 651 139 789 55 63 57 249 68 317 7/1/10 651 139 789 55 63 57 249 68 317 10/1/10 651 139 789 55 63 57 249 68 317 1/1/11 651 139 789 55 63 57 249 68 317 4/1/11 651 139 789 55 63 57 249 68 317

Av/Qrt -45 -24 -70 -2 -1 -2 -63 -23 -86

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Youth

Legal Status Forecasts
STP

Actual and Forecasted STP Admissions
1,800

Male

Female

Total

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11

Office of Technology and Information Services

32

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Summary for STP

Total Admissons

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male 4,647 4,262 2,989 2,648 2,603 2,603 2,603 2,603

Female 1,589 1,540 717 578 554 554 554 554

Av/Yr. -9

-5

Forecasts are shaded yellow

Total 6,236 5,802 3,706 3,227 3,157 3,157 3,157 3,157
-14

ALOS

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male 76 70 62 56 55 55 55 55

Female 73 72 70 63 63 63 63 63

Av/Yr. 0

0

Forecasts are shaded yellow

Total 75 71 64 57 57 57 57 57
0

ADP

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male 954 822 414 265 249 249 249 249

Female 312 296 116 74 68 68 68 68

Av/Yr. -3

-1

Forecasts are shaded yellow

Total 1,266 1,118 531 339 317 317 317 317
-4

Total Admissions: STP admissions are forecast to decrease 14 per year (9 males, 5 females) during the FY2007FY2011 period.
In FY2006, admissions decreased 2,096 from the preceding year; this represented a decrease of 36%. The abrupt decrease in STP admissions reflects the effects of Senate Bill 134, which came into effect at the beginning of FY2006.
The abrupt decrease in STP admissions has affected all placement forecasts for this program. Since the rate of decrease was 70-youth per quarter in the FY2004-FY2006 historical period, negative forecast values were encountered after January 2007. Until more data from FY2007 becomes available, tentative forecasts were made from FY2006 quarterly data. New data for the first quarter of FY2007 indicates that STP admissions continue to decrease; showing a decrease of 125 youth from the fourth quarter of FY2006.
Average Length of Stay: The average length of stay in STP is forecast to remain stable at 57 days during the FY2007FY2011 period.
Since the ALOS for females showed at slight increase (+1 day per year), the decrease in total ALOS can be attributed to the males' decreasing rate (-7 days per year).
Average Daily Population: The average daily population is forecast to decrease 4-per year (3 fewer males, 1 fewer females) during the FY2007FY2011 period.
Since the ALOS for commitments remains stable, the slight decrease in the ADP reflects the decrease in admissions.

Office of Technology and Information Services

33

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Office of Technology and Information Services

34

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011
PLACEMENT FORECASTS

Office of Technology and Information Services

35

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Total RYDC Placements

FY Totals by Quarter

FY
7/1/03 10/1/03

ADMs M F Total 3,247 1,212 4,459 3,457 1,321 4,778

ALOS M F Total M 20 16 19 758 21 14 19 836

ADP F Total
197 955 209 1,045

1/1/04 3,857 1,471 5,328 21 14 20 885 237 1,121 4/1/04 3,396 1,302 4,698 24 18 22 955 243 1,198

7/1/04 3,367 1,304 4,671 24 15 22 883 217 1,101 10/1/04 3,456 1,389 4,845 24 16 22 972 255 1,227 1/1/05 3,712 1,511 5,223 26 15 22 908 237 1,145

4/1/05 3,617 1,442 5,059 26 17 23 961 269 1,231 7/1/05 3,477 1,313 4,790 23 16 21 859 226 1,085

10/1/05 3,689 1,408 5,097 22 15 20 892 239 1,131 1/1/06 4,235 1,432 5,667 21 15 20 947 220 1,167 4/1/06 3,943 1,360 5,303 21 16 20 966 247 1,213

7/1/06 3,960 1,435 5,395 23 16 21 971 249 1,220 10/1/06 4,012 1,445 5,457 23 16 21 981 252 1,233

1/1/07 4,064 1,455 5,518 23 16 21 992 254 1,246 4/1/07 4,116 1,464 5,580 23 16 21 1,002 257 1,259

7/1/07 4,168 1,474 5,642 23 16 21 1,013 259 1,272

10/1/07 4,220 1,484 5,704 23 16 21 1,024 262 1,286 1/1/08 4,272 1,493 5,765 23 16 21 1,034 264 1,299

4/1/08 4,324 1,503 5,827 24 16 22 1,045 267 1,312 7/1/08 4,376 1,513 5,889 24 16 22 1,055 269 1,325 10/1/08 4,428 1,523 5,951 24 16 22 1,066 272 1,338

1/1/09 4,480 1,532 6,013 24 16 22 1,076 275 1,351 4/1/09 4,532 1,542 6,074 24 16 22 1,087 277 1,364 7/1/09 4,584 1,552 6,136 24 16 22 1,098 280 1,377 10/1/09 4,637 1,561 6,198 24 16 22 1,108 282 1,390 1/1/10 4,689 1,571 6,260 24 16 22 1,119 285 1,403

4/1/10 4,741 1,581 6,322 24 16 22 1,129 287 1,417 7/1/10 4,793 1,591 6,383 24 16 22 1,140 290 1,430

10/1/10 4,845 1,600 6,445 24 16 22 1,151 292 1,443 1/1/11 4,897 1,610 6,507 24 16 22 1,161 295 1,456 4/1/11 4,949 1,620 6,569 24 16 22 1,172 297 1,469

Av/Qrt 52 10 62 0.06 0.03 0.06 11 3 13
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Youth

6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000
500 0

7/1/03 10/1/03 1/1/04 4/1/04 7/1/04 10/1/04 1/1/05 4/1/05 7/1/05 10/1/05 1/1/06 4/1/06 7/1/06 10/1/06 1/1/07 4/1/07 7/1/07 10/1/07 1/1/08 4/1/08 7/1/08 10/1/08 1/1/09 4/1/09 7/1/09 10/1/09 1/1/10 4/1/10 7/1/10 10/1/10 1/1/11 4/1/11

Placement Forecasts
Total RYDC Placements

Actual and Forecasted Total RYDC Placements

Male

Female

Total

Office of Technology and Information Services

36

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Total Admissons

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male Female Total 13,959 5,306 19,265 14,153 5,646 19,799 15,348 5,516 20,864 15,876 5,699 21,575 16,570 5,804 22,375 17,265 5,909 23,174 17,959 6,014 23,974 18,654 6,119 24,773

Av/Yr. 695 105 800 Forecasts are shaded yellow

ALOS

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male 22 25 22 23 23 23 23 23

Female 15 16 15 16 16 16 16 16

Av/Yr. 0

0

Forecasts are shaded yellow

Total 20 22 20 21 21 21 21 21
0

Summary for Total RYDC Placements
Total Admissions: RYDC placements are forecast to increase 800 per year (695 males, 105 females) during the FY2007FY2011 period. In FY2006, placements increased 1,065 over the preceding year; this represents 5% increase. New data for the first quarter of FY2007 indicates that placements decreased slightly; showing a decrease of 219 youth from the fourth quarter of FY2006.
Average Length of Stay: The average length of stay for RYDC placements is not forecast to change during the FY2007FY2011 period.
Average Daily Population: The average daily population of commitments is forecast to increase 83 per year (70 males, 13 females) during the FY2007FY2011 period. Since the ALOS for placements remains stable, the increase in the ADP reflects the growth in placements.

ADP

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male 865 939 923 967 996 1,025 1,054 1,082

Female 223 247 235 247 252 258 264 270

Total 1,089 1,185 1,158 1,213 1,248 1,283 1,318 1,352

Av/Yr. 29

6

35

Forecasts are shaded yellow

Office of Technology and Information Services

37

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Community Pre-Adjudication

FY Totals by Quarter

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

FY

M F Total M F Total M F Total

7/1/03 4,403 2,461 6,864 57 54 10/1/03 5,120 2,737 7,857 51 50 1/1/04 5,261 2,908 8,169 52 48 4/1/04 4,582 2,600 7,182 57 49 7/1/04 4,378 2,335 6,713 56 52 10/1/04 4,609 2,622 7,231 54 46 1/1/05 5,247 3,010 8,257 53 48 4/1/05 4,937 2,700 7,637 52 49 7/1/05 4,743 2,523 7,266 57 52 10/1/05 5,369 2,983 8,352 61 54 1/1/06 6,326 3,459 9,785 68 56 4/1/06 6,127 3,288 9,415 61 50

55 2,442 1,282 3,724 50 2,867 1,425 4,293 51 2,930 1,413 4,344 54 2,930 1,470 4,400 55 2,583 1,265 3,848 51 2,828 1,415 4,244 51 3,058 1,559 4,617 51 3,338 1,713 5,051 55 3,264 1,536 4,799 59 3,936 1,878 5,814 64 4,380 1,986 6,366 57 5,350 2,463 7,813

7/1/06 5,858 3,193 9,051 62 52 10/1/06 5,975 3,254 9,229 63 52 1/1/07 6,093 3,314 9,407 64 53 4/1/07 6,211 3,374 9,585 65 53 7/1/07 6,329 3,434 9,763 66 53 10/1/07 6,447 3,494 9,941 67 53 1/1/08 6,564 3,555 10,119 68 53 4/1/08 6,682 3,615 10,297 69 54 7/1/08 6,800 3,675 10,475 70 54 10/1/08 6,918 3,735 10,653 70 54 1/1/09 7,036 3,796 10,831 71 54 4/1/09 7,154 3,856 11,009 72 55 7/1/09 7,271 3,916 11,187 73 55 10/1/09 7,389 3,976 11,365 74 55 1/1/10 7,507 4,036 11,543 75 55 4/1/10 7,625 4,097 11,721 76 56 7/1/10 7,743 4,157 11,899 77 56 10/1/10 7,860 4,217 12,077 78 56 1/1/11 7,978 4,277 12,255 78 56 4/1/11 8,096 4,337 12,433 79 56

59 4,617 2,142 6,759 59 4,815 2,223 7,038 60 5,014 2,304 7,318 61 5,213 2,384 7,597 61 5,411 2,465 7,877 62 5,610 2,546 8,156 63 5,809 2,627 8,435 63 6,007 2,708 8,715 64 6,206 2,788 8,994 65 6,405 2,869 9,274 65 6,603 2,950 9,553 66 6,802 3,031 9,832 67 7,000 3,111 10,112 67 7,199 3,192 10,391 68 7,398 3,273 10,671 69 7,596 3,354 10,950 69 7,795 3,435 11,230 70 7,994 3,515 11,509 70 8,192 3,596 11,788 71 8,391 3,677 12,068

Av/Qrt 118 60 178 0.90 0.23 0.66 199 81
Forecast ed values are shaded yellow

279

Youth

13,000 12,500 12,000 11,500 11,000 10,500 10,000
9,500 9,000 8,500 8,000 7,500 7,000 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000
500 0

7/1/03 10/1/03 1/1/04 4/1/04 7/1/04 10/1/04 1/1/05 4/1/05 7/1/05 10/1/05 1/1/06 4/1/06 7/1/06 10/1/06 1/1/07 4/1/07 7/1/07 10/1/07 1/1/08 4/1/08 7/1/08 10/1/08 1/1/09 4/1/09 7/1/09 10/1/09 1/1/10 4/1/10 7/1/10 10/1/10 1/1/11 4/1/11

Placement Forecasts
Community, Pre-Adjudication

Actual and Forecasted Community Placements Awaiting Adjudication

Male

Female

Total

Office of Technology and Information Services

38

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Total Admissons

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male Female Total 19,369 10,706 30,075 19,171 10,667 29,838 22,568 12,251 34,819 23,568 12,753 36,321 25,168 13,526 38,693 26,767 14,298 41,065 28,367 15,071 43,437 29,966 15,843 45,809

Av/Yr. 1,600 773 2,372 Forecasts are shaded yellow

ALOS

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male 54 54 62 65 69 73 77 81

Female 50 49 53 54 55 57 58 60

Av/Yr. 4

2

Forecasts are shaded yellow

Total 53 52 59 61 64 67 70 74
3

Summary for Pre-Adjudication Community Placements
Total Admissions: Community placements are forecast to increase 2,372 per year (1,600 males, 773 females) during the FY2007FY2011 period. In FY2006, admissions increased 4,981 over the preceding year; this represented a 17% increase. The quarterly admissions data indicates that most of this increase occurred in the last two quarters of FY2006.
Average Length of Stay: The average length of stay for placements is forecast to increase 3-days per year during the FY2007FY2011 period.
Average Daily Population: The average daily population of placements is forecast to increase 1,009 per year (724 males, 285 females) during the FY2007FY2011 period. Since the ALOS for commitments increased slightly, the large increase in the ADP reflects the growth in placement admissions. The large increase in ADP indicates an increasing need for supervision staff.

ADP

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male 2,816 2,975 4,264 4,800 5,524 6,248 6,972 7,697

Female 1,409 1,499 1,980 2,200 2,485 2,770 3,055 3,340

Total 4,225 4,474 6,244 7,000 8,009 9,018 10,027 11,036

Av/Yr. 724 285 1,009 Forecasts are shaded yellow

Office of Technology and Information Services

39

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

RYDC Pre-Adjudication

FY Totals by Quarter

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

FY

M F Total M F Total M F Total

7/1/03 1,617 640 2,257 9 6 8 169 40 209

10/1/03 1,640 679 2,319 10 5 8 178 40 218

1/1/04 1,855 780 2,635 10 6 4/1/04 1,560 628 2,188 12 7 7/1/04 1,659 695 2,354 11 7 10/1/04 1,751 788 2,539 10 7 1/1/05 1,910 870 2,780 11 7 4/1/05 1,843 797 2,640 12 8 7/1/05 2,033 754 2,787 11 8 10/1/05 2,199 909 3,108 13 8

9 206 51 258 10 203 51 254 10 184 53 237 9 212 61 272 10 219 62 281 11 250 67 317 10 278 60 338 11 338 84 423

1/1/06 2,730 965 3,695 13 9 12 400 90 490 4/1/06 2,566 912 3,478 15 10 13 452 107 559

7/1/06 2,532 955 3,487 14 9 10/1/06 2,622 981 3,603 14 10 1/1/07 2,712 1,007 3,719 15 10 4/1/07 2,802 1,033 3,835 15 10 7/1/07 2,892 1,060 3,951 16 11 10/1/07 2,982 1,086 4,067 16 11 1/1/08 3,072 1,112 4,184 16 11 4/1/08 3,162 1,138 4,300 17 12 7/1/08 3,252 1,164 4,416 17 12 10/1/08 3,342 1,191 4,532 18 12 1/1/09 3,432 1,217 4,648 18 13 4/1/09 3,521 1,243 4,764 18 13 7/1/09 3,611 1,269 4,881 19 13 10/1/09 3,701 1,295 4,997 19 13 1/1/10 3,791 1,321 5,113 20 14

13 408 98 506 13 431 103 534 13 454 109 563 14 477 114 591 14 500 119 620 15 523 125 648 15 547 130 676 15 570 135 705 16 593 140 733 16 616 146 762 17 639 151 790 17 662 156 818 17 685 161 847 18 709 167 875 18 732 172 904

4/1/10 3,881 1,348 5,229 20 14 7/1/10 3,971 1,374 5,345 20 14 10/1/10 4,061 1,400 5,461 21 15 1/1/11 4,151 1,426 5,577 21 15 4/1/11 4,241 1,452 5,694 22 15

19 755 177 932 19 778 182 960 19 801 188 989 20 824 193 1,017 20 847 198 1,046

Av/Qrt 90 26 116 0.40 0.32 0.39 23 5 28
Forecast ed values are shaded yellow

Youth

6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000
500 0

7/1/03 10/1/03 1/1/04 4/1/04 7/1/04 10/1/04 1/1/05 4/1/05 7/1/05 10/1/05 1/1/06 4/1/06 7/1/06 10/1/06 1/1/07 4/1/07 7/1/07 10/1/07 1/1/08 4/1/08 7/1/08 10/1/08 1/1/09 4/1/09 7/1/09 10/1/09 1/1/10 4/1/10 7/1/10 10/1/10 1/1/11 4/1/11

Placement Forecasts
RYDC Pre-Adjudication
Actual and Forecasted RYDC Placements Awaiting Adjudication

Male

Female

Total

Office of Technology and Information Services

40

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Total Admissons

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male Female Total 6,673 2,727 9,400 7,163 3,150 10,313 9,530 3,543 13,073 10,646 3,956 14,602 12,074 4,364 16,438 13,503 4,772 18,275 14,931 5,180 20,111 16,360 5,588 21,948

Av/Yr. 1,429 408 1,837 Forecasts are shaded yellow

Summary for RYDC Pre-Adjudication
Total Admissions: Placement admissions are forecast to increase 1,837 per year (1,429 males, 408 females) during the FY2007FY2011 period. In FY2006, admissions increased 2,760 over the preceding year; this represented a 27% increase.

ALOS

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male 10 11 13 14 16 17 19 20

Female 6 7 9 10 11 12 13 14

Av/Yr. 1

1

Forecasts are shaded yellow

Total 9 10 12 13 14 16 17 19
1

Average Length of Stay: The average length of stay for these placements is forecast to increase 1-day per year during the FY2007FY2011 period.
Average Daily Population: The average daily population of placements is forecast to increase 110 per year (89 males, 20 females) during the FY2007FY2011 period. Since the ALOS only increased 1-day, the increase in the ADP reflects the growth in placement admissions.

ADP

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male 191 218 370 438 528 617 707 796

Female 46 61 86 105 125 145 165 185

Av/Yr. 89

20

Forecasts are shaded yellow

Total 237 279 456 543 652 762 871 981
110

Office of Technology and Information Services

41

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

RYDC Awaiting YDC

FY Totals by Quarter

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

FY

M F Total M F Total M F Total

7/1/03 783 228 1,011 29 20 28 256 47 303 10/1/03 760 229 989 33 19 30 270 51 321 1/1/04 910 254 1,164 31 21 28 294 57 352 4/1/04 864 252 1,116 31 21 31 326 56 382 7/1/04 898 251 1,149 36 22 33 345 61 406 10/1/04 820 244 1,064 37 20 35 350 57 406 1/1/05 755 238 993 43 23 32 293 57 350 4/1/05 845 246 1,091 32 25 28 267 69 336 7/1/05 848 300 1,148 31 24 29 292 74 366 10/1/05 952 278 1,230 28 22 26 279 70 349 1/1/06 967 253 1,220 29 22 26 292 62 354 4/1/06 960 262 1,222 25 22 24 268 59 327

7/1/06 950 275 1,225 30 24 27 289 70 359 10/1/06 963 279 1,242 30 24 26 288 71 359 1/1/07 976 282 1,258 29 24 26 287 73 360 4/1/07 990 285 1,275 29 25 26 286 74 361 7/1/07 1,003 289 1,292 29 25 25 285 76 361 10/1/07 1,016 292 1,308 28 25 25 284 77 362 1/1/08 1,030 296 1,325 28 26 25 284 79 363 4/1/08 1,043 299 1,342 28 26 24 283 81 363 7/1/08 1,056 302 1,359 27 26 24 282 82 364 10/1/08 1,069 306 1,375 27 27 23 281 84 365 1/1/09 1,083 309 1,392 27 27 23 280 85 365 4/1/09 1,096 313 1,409 26 27 23 279 87 366 7/1/09 1,109 316 1,425 26 27 22 278 88 367 10/1/09 1,123 320 1,442 26 28 22 278 90 367 1/1/10 1,136 323 1,459 25 28 22 277 91 368 4/1/10 1,149 326 1,476 25 28 21 276 93 369 7/1/10 1,162 330 1,492 25 29 21 275 94 369 10/1/10 1,176 333 1,509 24 29 20 274 96 370 1/1/11 1,189 337 1,526 24 29 20 273 97 370 4/1/11 1,202 340 1,542 24 30 20 272 99 371

Av/Qrt 13 3 17 -0.33 0.31 -0.37 -1 2 1
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Youth

1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000
900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100
0

7/1/03 10/1/03 1/1/04 4/1/04 7/1/04 10/1/04 1/1/05 4/1/05 7/1/05 10/1/05 1/1/06 4/1/06 7/1/06 10/1/06 1/1/07 4/1/07 7/1/07 10/1/07 1/1/08 4/1/08 7/1/08 10/1/08 1/1/09 4/1/09 7/1/09 10/1/09 1/1/10 4/1/10 7/1/10 10/1/10 1/1/11 4/1/11

Placement Forecasts
RYDC, Awaiting YDC
Actual and Forecasted RYDC Placements Awaiting YDC

Male

Female

Total

Office of Technology and Information Services

42

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Total Admissons

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male 3,318 3,319 3,727 3,864 4,068 4,273 4,477 4,682

Female 963 979 1,093 1,142 1,207 1,272 1,337 1,402

Total 4,281 4,298 4,820 5,005 5,275 5,544 5,814 6,083

Av/Yr. 205

65

270

Forecasts are shaded yellow

ALOS

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male 31 37 28 30 28 27 26 25

Female 20 23 23 24 25 27 28 29

Av/Yr. -1

1

Forecasts are shaded yellow

Total 28 34 27 28 28 27 26 26
-1

ADP

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male 289 317 285 293 291 289 286 284

Female 53 61 67 74 81 88 94 101

Av/Yr. -2

7

Forecasts are shaded yellow

Total 342 378 352 367 371 376 381 385
5

Summary for RYDC Awaiting YDC
Total Admissions: Placements are forecast to increase 270 per year (205 males, 65 females) during the FY2007 FY2011 period. In FY2006, placements increased 522 over the preceding year; this represented a 12% increase. The quarterly admissions data indicates that most of this increase occurred in the last three quarters of FY2006. Average Length of Stay: The average length of stay for these placements is forecast to decrease 1-day per year during the FY2007FY2011 period. Average Daily Population: The average daily population of these placements is forecast to increase 5 per year during the FY2007FY2011 period.

Office of Technology and Information Services

43

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

RYDC Awaiting STP

FY Totals by Quarter

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

FY

M F Total M F Total M F Total

7/1/03 814 269 1,083 17 18 17 143 47 190 10/1/03 973 336 1,309 18 15 17 190 58 248

1/1/04 1,066 377 1,443 17 16 17 197 69 265 4/1/04 975 345 1,320 22 22 22 240 81 321 7/1/04 925 289 1,214 16 16 16 165 49 214 10/1/04 947 346 1,293 18 17 17 190 67 257 1/1/05 972 330 1,302 21 16 19 196 57 253

4/1/05 863 306 1,169 23 20 22 229 64 293 7/1/05 508 151 659 21 16 20 108 28 136 10/1/05 494 142 636 16 16 16 87 26 113 1/1/06 396 75 471 18 19 18 70 11 82 4/1/06 239 65 304 18 20 19 49 15 64

7/1/06 292 64 356 19 18 19 80 18 98 10/1/06 229 39 268 19 19 19 68 13 81 1/1/07 229 39 268 19 19 19 56 9 65

4/1/07 229 39 268 19 19 19 56 9 65 7/1/07 229 39 268 19 19 19 56 9 65 10/1/07 229 39 268 19 19 19 56 9 65 1/1/08 229 39 268 19 19 19 56 9 65 4/1/08 229 39 268 19 19 19 56 9 65

7/1/08 229 39 268 19 19 19 56 9 65 10/1/08 229 39 268 19 19 19 56 9 65 1/1/09 229 39 268 19 19 19 56 9 65 4/1/09 229 39 268 19 19 19 56 9 65 7/1/09 229 39 268 19 19 19 56 9 65 10/1/09 229 39 268 19 19 19 56 9 65 1/1/10 229 39 268 19 19 19 56 9 65 4/1/10 229 39 268 19 19 19 56 9 65 7/1/10 229 39 268 19 19 19 56 9 65 10/1/10 229 39 268 19 19 19 56 9 65 1/1/11 229 39 268 19 19 19 56 9 65 4/1/11 229 39 268 19 19 19 56 9 65

Av/Qrt -63 -25 -88 0.09 0.13 0.10 -12 -5 -16
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Youth

1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000
900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100
0

Office of Technology and Information Services

7/1/03 10/1/03 1/1/04 4/1/04 7/1/04 10/1/04 1/1/05 4/1/05 7/1/05 10/1/05 1/1/06 4/1/06 7/1/06 10/1/06 1/1/07 4/1/07 7/1/07 10/1/07 1/1/08 4/1/08 7/1/08 10/1/08 1/1/09 4/1/09 7/1/09 10/1/09 1/1/10 4/1/10 7/1/10 10/1/10 1/1/11 4/1/11

Placement Forecasts
RYDC Awaiting STP
Actual and Forecasted RYDC Placements Awaiting STP Male Female Total
44

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Total Admissons

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male 3,828 3,707 1,637 978 915 915 915 915

Female 1,327 1,271 433 183 158 158 158 158

Av/Yr. -13

-5

Forecasts are shaded yellow

Total 5,155 4,978 2,070 1,161 1,073 1,073 1,073 1,073
-18

ALOS

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male 18 19 18 19 19 19 19 19

Female 18 17 17 19 19 19 19 19

Av/Yr. 0

0

Forecasts are shaded yellow

Total 18 19 18 19 19 19 19 19
0

Summary for RYDC Awaiting STP
Total Admissions: Placements are forecast to decrease 18 per year (13 males, 5 females) during the FY2007 FY2011 period. In FY2006, admissions decreased 2,908 over the preceding year; this represented a 58% decrease Average Length of Stay: The average length of stay is not forecast to change during the FY2007FY2011 period. Average Daily Population: The average daily population is forecast to decrease 2 per year during the FY2007FY2011 period.

ADP

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male 194 196 80 65 56 56 56 56

Female 64 60 20 12 9 9 9 9

Av/Yr. -2

-1

Forecasts are shaded yellow

Total 258 256 100 77 65 65 65 65
-2

Office of Technology and Information Services

45

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

YDC Regular Commitments

FY Totals by Quarter

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

FY

250

M F Total M F Total M F Total

7/1/03 10/1/03

40 15 55 257 157 248 178 31 210 92 11 103 233 252 236 168 33 202

1/1/04 99 17 116 186 221 192 156 30 186

4/1/04 56 18 74 186 110 173 137 28 164

7/1/04 71 31 102 145 118 139 117 34 152

10/1/04 63 7 70 163 212 175 115 31 145

200

1/1/05 126 23 149 170 139 165 117 25 143

4/1/05 92 21 113 116 110 115 140 28 169

7/1/05 120 22 142 142 174 146 152 28 180

10/1/05 138 31 169 138 128 136 180 38 218

1/1/06 101 17 118 156 129 152 181 39 220

4/1/06 84 21 105 164 161 164 166 38 204

150

7/1/06 119 25 144 118 126 118 157 36 193

Youth

10/1/06 124 25 149 110 120 110 158 36 195

1/1/07 128 26 154 102 115 102 160 37 196

4/1/07 133 27 160 93 110 94 161 38 198

7/1/07 137 28 165 85 105 86 162 38 200

10/1/07 142 29 170 77 100 78 163 39 201

100

1/1/08 146 29 176 69 95 70 164 39 203

4/1/08 151 30 181 60 89 62 165 40 205

7/1/08 155 31 186 52 84 54 166 40 206

10/1/08 160 32 191 44 79 46 167 41 208

1/1/09 164 32 197 36 74 38 168 41 209

4/1/09 169 33 202 28 69 30 169 42 211

50

7/1/09 173 34 207 19 64 22 170 43 213

10/1/09 178 35 212 11 58 14 171 43 214

1/1/10 182 36 218 3 53 6 172 44 216 4/1/10 187 36 223 -5 48 -2 173 44 217

7/1/10 191 37 228 -13 43 -10 174 45 219

10/1/10 196 38 234 -22 38 -18 175 45 221

0

1/1/11 4/1/11

200 39 239 -30 33 205 39 244 -38 27

-26 176 46 222 -34 177 47 224

Av/Qrt 4 1 5 -8.21 -5.17 -8.00 1 1 2

7/1/03 10/1/03 1/1/04 4/1/04 7/1/04 10/1/04 1/1/05 4/1/05 7/1/05 10/1/05 1/1/06 4/1/06 7/1/06 10/1/06 1/1/07 4/1/07 7/1/07 10/1/07 1/1/08 4/1/08 7/1/08 10/1/08 1/1/09 4/1/09 7/1/09 10/1/09 1/1/10 4/1/10 7/1/10 10/1/10 1/1/11 4/1/11

Placement Forecasts
YDC Regular Commitments
Actual and Forecasted YDC Regular Commitments

Male

Female

Total

Office of Technology and Information Services

46

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Total Admissons

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male 287 352 443 517 595 673 751 829

Female 61 82 91 108 123 138 153 168

Total 348 434 534 625 718 811 904 997

Av/Yr. 78

15

93

Forecasts are shaded yellow

ALOS

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male 214 148 150 106 74 42 10 -22

Female 188 150 147 121 101 81 61 41

Av/Yr. -32

-20

Forecasts are shaded yellow

Total 211 149 150 109 78 47 17 -14
-31

Summary for YDC Regular Commitments
Total Admissions: Regular commitments are forecast to increase 93 per year (78 males, 15 females) during the FY2007FY2011 period. In FY2006, admissions increased 100 over the preceding year; this represented a 23% increase Average Length of Stay: The average length of stay is forecast to decrease 31-days per year during the FY2007 FY2011 period. Average Daily Population: The average daily population of commitments is forecast to increase 8 per year (5 males, 3 females) during the FY2007FY2011 period. Since the ALOS for commitments decreased, the increase in the ADP reflects the growth in commitment admissions.

ADP

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male 161 123 171 162 167 172 177 182

Female 31 30 36 38 40 43 46 48

Av/Yr. 5

3

Forecasts are shaded yellow

Total 192 153 208 200 207 215 223 230
8

Office of Technology and Information Services

47

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

YDC Designated Felons

FY Totals by Quarter

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

FY

M F Total M F Total M F Total

7/1/03 74 5 79 535 591 542 505 42 547 10/1/03 88 8 96 493 460 490 519 40 559

1/1/04 128 11 139 463 391 460 514 42 556

250

4/1/04 90 7 97 469 654 485 533 45 578

7/1/04 103 7 110 493 630 501 552 44 596 10/1/04 97 7 104 503 271 473 578 46 624

1/1/05 112 6 118 432 540 439 595 45 640

4/1/05 101 14 115 524 550 525 614 48 662

200

7/1/05 118 15 133 531 564 534 631 51 682 10/1/05 147 16 163 515 314 505 654 59 713

1/1/06 146 12 158 549 313 527 679 65 744 4/1/06 113 10 123 568 667 575 698 64 762

Youth

7/1/06 138 14 152 542 462 534 708 64 772

150

10/1/06 142 15 157 547 457 539 726 66 792

1/1/07 146 15 162 553 452 543 745 68 813

4/1/07 151 16 167 558 447 548 763 70 833

7/1/07 155 17 172 564 442 552 781 73 854

10/1/07 159 17 177 569 437 557 800 75 874

100

1/1/08 164 18 182 575 432 561 818 77 895

4/1/08 168 19 187 580 427 566 836 79 915

7/1/08 172 19 192 586 422 570 854 82 936

10/1/08 177 20 196 591 417 575 873 84 956

1/1/09 181 21 201 597 412 579 891 86 977

50

4/1/09 185 21 206 602 406 584 909 88 997

7/1/09 190 22 211 608 401 588 927 90 1,018 10/1/09 194 23 216 613 396 593 946 93 1,038 1/1/10 198 23 221 618 391 597 964 95 1,059

4/1/10 202 24 226 624 386 602 982 97 1,079

0

7/1/10 207 24 231 629 381 10/1/10 211 25 236 635 376 1/1/11 215 26 241 640 371 4/1/11 220 26 246 646 366

606 1,001 99 1,100 611 1,019 102 1,120 615 1,037 104 1,141 620 1,055 106 1,161

Av/Qrt 4 1 5 5.48 -5.08 4.52 18 2 21
Forecast ed values are shaded yellow

Office of Technology and Information Services

7/1/03 10/1/03 1/1/04 4/1/04 7/1/04 10/1/04 1/1/05 4/1/05 7/1/05 10/1/05 1/1/06 4/1/06 7/1/06 10/1/06 1/1/07 4/1/07 7/1/07 10/1/07 1/1/08 4/1/08 7/1/08 10/1/08 1/1/09 4/1/09 7/1/09 10/1/09 1/1/10 4/1/10 7/1/10 10/1/10 1/1/11 4/1/11

Placement Forecasts
YDC Designated Felons

Actual and Forecasted YDC Designated Felons

Male

Female

Total

48

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Total Admissons

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male 380 413 524 583 655 727 799 871

Female 31 34 53 61 72 83 94 105

Total 411 447 577 644 727 810 893 976

Av/Yr. 72

11

83

Forecasts are shaded yellow

Summary for YDC Designated Felons
Total Admissions: Designated Felon admissions are forecast to increase 83 per year (72 males, 11 females) during the FY2007FY2011 period. In FY2006, admissions increased 130 over the preceding year; this represented a 29% increase

ALOS

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male 487 484 541 558 585 612 639 666

Female 539 469 471 425 391 357 323 289

Av/Yr. 27

-34

Forecasts are shaded yellow

Total 491 483 535 548 570 592 614 636
22

Average Length of Stay: The average length of stay is forecast to increase 22-days per year during the FY2007 FY2011 period. Since the ALOS for females showed decreased 34- days per year, the increase in total ALOS can be attributed to the males' increasing rate (27 days per year).
Average Daily Population: The average daily population of commitments is forecast to increase 83 per year (70 males, 13 females) during the FY2007FY2011 period.
By FY2011, designated felons could occupy most of the YDC bed space available in FY2006.

ADP

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male 522 590 671 743 817 891 966 1,040

Female 42 46 60 68 77 86 95 104

Total 564 636 731 810 894 977 1,060 1,144

Av/Yr. 74

9

83

Forecasts are shaded yellow

Office of Technology and Information Services

49

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

YDC Superior Court Sentences

FY Totals by Quarter

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M F Total M F Total M F Total

25

7/1/03 5 0 5 255 349 276 29 1 30

10/1/03 8 0 8 268 0 268 30 0 30

1/1/04 12 0 12 460 0 460 35 0 35

4/1/04 8 0 8 386 0 386 37 0 37

7/1/04 5 0 5 286 0 286 36 0 36

20

10/1/04 7 0 7 520 0 520 32 0 32

1/1/05 13 0 13 501 0 501 31 0 31

4/1/05 11 1 12 352 0 352 35 0 36

7/1/05 12 0 12 219 80 209 37 0 37

10/1/05 8 0 8 309 0 309 33 0 33

1/1/06 8 0 8 368 0 368 34 0 34

15

4/1/06 13 3 16 302 65 243 40 2 42

Youth

7/1/06 12 1 13 345 -21 320 37 1 38

10/1/06 12 1 13 344 -30 316 38 1 38

1/1/07 12 1 14 343 -40 312 38 1 39

4/1/07 13 2 14 342 -49 308 39 1 40

7/1/07 13 2 15 341 -59 303 39 1 40

10

10/1/07 13 2 15 340 -68 299 40 1 41

1/1/08 14 2 16 339 -78 295 40 1 41

4/1/08 14 2 16 338 -87 291 41 1 42

7/1/08 14 2 17 337 -97 286 41 1 42

10/1/08 15 2 17 336 -106 282 42 1 43

1/1/09 15 2 18 335 -116 278 42 1 43

5

4/1/09 16 3 18 334 -126 274 43 1 44

7/1/09 16 3 19 333 -135 269 43 1 44

10/1/09 16 3 19 332 -145 265 44 1 45

1/1/10 17 3 20 331 -154 261 44 1 46

4/1/10 17 3 20 330 -164 257 44 1 46

0

7/1/10 17 3 21 329 -173 252 45 1 47

10/1/10 18 3 21 328 -183 248 45 1 47

1/1/11 18 3 21 327 -192 244 46 1 48

4/1/11 18 4 22 326 -202 240 46 1 48

Av/Qrt 0.4 0.1 0.5 -1.0 -9.5 -4.3 0.5 0.0 0.5
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

7/1/03 10/1/03 1/1/04 4/1/04 7/1/04 10/1/04 1/1/05 4/1/05 7/1/05 10/1/05 1/1/06 4/1/06 7/1/06 10/1/06 1/1/07 4/1/07 7/1/07 10/1/07 1/1/08 4/1/08 7/1/08 10/1/08 1/1/09 4/1/09 7/1/09 10/1/09 1/1/10 4/1/10 7/1/10 10/1/10 1/1/11 4/1/11

Placement Forecasts
YDC Youth Sentenced by the Superior Court

Actual and Forecasted ADP for Youth Sentenced by the Superior Court

Males

Female

Total

Office of Technology and Information Services

50

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Total Admissons

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male 33 36 41 45 49 53 57 61

Female 0 1 3 4 6 7 9 10

Total 33 37 44 49 55 60 66 71

Av/Yr. 4

2

6

Forecasts are shaded yellow

ALOS

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male 351 415 284 283 249 216 182 149

Female 349 0 73 -136 -274 -412 -550 -688

Av/Yr. -34 -138 Forecasts are shaded yellow

Total 351 415 273 268 229 189 150 111
-39

Summary for YDC Youth Sentenced by Superior Court
Total Admissions: Placements are forecast to increase 6 per year (4 males, 2 females) during the FY2007 FY2011 period. In FY2006, admissions increased 7 over the preceding year; this represented a 19% increase. Average Length of Stay: The average length of stay is forecast to decrease 39-days per year during the FY2007 FY2011 period. Average Daily Population: The average daily population of commitments is forecast to increase 2 per year (2 males, no females) during the FY2007FY2011 period. Since the ALOS decreased, the slight increase in the ADP reflects the growth in male admissions.

ADP

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male 33 34 36 38 39 41 42 44

Female 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 2

Av/Yr. 2

0

Forecasts are shaded yellow

Total 33 34 37 38 40 42 44 46
2

Office of Technology and Information Services

51

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

YDC STP

FY Totals by Quarter

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M F Total M F Total M F Total

7/1/03 718 252 970 64 64 64 517 172 689

10/1/03 682 239 921 64 63 63 458 165 623

1/1/04 560 189 749 57 57 57 379 124 503

4/1/04 643 270 913 53 49 52 351 130 480

7/1/04 508 226 734 54 50 53 326 126 452

10/1/04 487 243 730 57 54 56 297 137 433

1/1/05 456 211 667 53 55 53 264 129 393

4/1/05 502 222 724 51 58 53 268 133 401

7/1/05 416 100 516 49 54 51 236 87 323

10/1/05 448 116 564 40 41 40 184 44 228

1/1/06 496 96 592 36 41 37 189 46 235 4/1/06 579 92 671 38 36 38 228 37 265

7/1/06 561 76 637 36 34 36 201 25 226

10/1/06 543 61 604 33 33 33 174 14 188

1/1/07 543 61 604 33 33 33 174 14 188

4/1/07 543 61 604 33 33 33 174 14 188

7/1/07 543 61 604 33 33 33 174 14 188

10/1/07 543 61 604 33 33 33 174 14 188

1/1/08 543 61 604 33 33 33 174 14 188

4/1/08 543 61 604 33 33 33 174 14 188

7/1/08 543 61 604 33 33 33 174 14 188

10/1/08 543 61 604 33 33 33 174 14 188

1/1/09 543 61 604 33 33 33 174 14 188

4/1/09 543 61 604 33 33 33 174 14 188

7/1/09 543 61 604 33 33 33 174 14 188

10/1/09 543 61 604 33 33 33 174 14 188

1/1/10 543 61 604 33 33 33 174 14 188

4/1/10 543 61 604 33 33 33 174 14 188

7/1/10 543 61 604 33 33 33 174 14 188

10/1/10 543 61 604 33 33 33 174 14 188

1/1/11 543 61 604 33 33 33 174 14 188 4/1/11 543 61 604 33 33 33 174 14 188

Av/Qrt -0.3 -0.2 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.4 -0.2 -0.6
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Youth

1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

Office of Technology and Information Services

7/1/03 10/1/03 1/1/04 4/1/04 7/1/04 10/1/04 1/1/05 4/1/05 7/1/05 10/1/05 1/1/06 4/1/06 7/1/06 10/1/06
1/1/07 4/1/07 7/1/07 10/1/07 1/1/08 4/1/08 7/1/08 10/1/08 1/1/09 4/1/09 7/1/09 10/1/09 1/1/10 4/1/10 7/1/10 10/1/10 1/1/11 4/1/11

Placement Forecasts
YDC STP

Actual and Forecasted YDC STP Placements

Male

Female

Total

52

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Total Admissons

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male 2,603 1,953 1,939 2,189 2,171 2,171 2,171 2,171

Female 950 902 404 250 243 243 243 243

Av/Yr. -4

-1

Forecasts are shaded yellow

Total 3,553 2,855 2,343 2,448 2,415 2,415 2,415 2,415
-7

ALOS

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male 60 54 41 34 33 33 33 33

Female 58 54 45 33 33 33 33 33

Av/Yr. 0

0

Forecasts are shaded yellow

Total 59 54 42 34 33 33 33 33
0

Summary for YDC STP
Total Admissions: Placements are forecast to decrease 7 per year (4 males, 1 females) during the FY2007 FY2011 period. In FY2006, admissions decreased 512 from the preceding year; this represented an 18% decrease. Average Length of Stay: The average length of stay is forecast to show no increase during the FY2007 FY2011 period. Average Daily Population: The average daily is forecast to increase 2 per year (1 males, 1 females) during the FY2007FY2011 period.

ADP

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male 430 291 211 181 174 174 174 174

Female 149 132 54 17 14 14 14 14

Av/Yr. -1

-1

Forecasts are shaded yellow

Total 579 424 265 197 188 188 188 188
-2

Office of Technology and Information Services

53

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Home Commitments

FY Totals by Quarter

ADMs

ALOS

FY

M F Total M F Total M

7/1/03 773 244 1,017 166 155 163 1,518

10/1/03 851 226 1,077 182 145 173 1,565

1/1/04 896 305 1,201 173 147 167 1,588

4/1/04 911 289 1,200 158 113 147 1,594

7/1/04 821 282 1,103 178 147 171 1,562

10/1/04 928 313 1,241 164 143 159 1,562

1/1/05 894 274 1,168 169 152 164 1,653

4/1/05 822 269 1,091 159 132 152 1,633

7/1/05 824 279 1,103 173 134 163 1,616

10/1/05 922 267 1,189 156 131 150 1,635

1/1/06 874 239 1,113 162 167 163 1,629 4/1/06 940 253 1,193 149 144 148 1,671

7/1/06 911 266 1,177 155 143 152 1,671

10/1/06 917 265 1,183 154 143 151 1,681

1/1/07 924 265 1,188 152 144 150 1,692

4/1/07 930 264 1,194 150 144 149 1,702

7/1/07 936 263 1,199 149 144 148 1,713

10/1/07 942 263 1,205 147 144 146 1,723

1/1/08 948 262 1,210 146 144 145 1,734

4/1/08 954 262 1,216 144 144 144 1,744

7/1/08 961 261 1,222 142 144 143 1,755

10/1/08 967 260 1,227 141 145 142 1,765

1/1/09 973 260 1,233 139 145 140 1,776

4/1/09 979 259 1,238 138 145 139 1,786

7/1/09 985 258 1,244 136 145 138 1,797

10/1/09 991 258 1,249 134 145 137 1,807

1/1/10 997 257 1,255 133 145 136 1,818

4/1/10 1,004 257 1,260 131 145 134 1,828

7/1/10 1,010 256 1,266 130 146 133 1,839

10/1/10 1,016 255 1,271 128 146 132 1,849

1/1/11 1,022 255 1,277 126 146 131 1,860 4/1/11 1,028 254 1,282 125 146 129 1,870

Av/Qrt 6 -1

6 -1.61 0.14 -1.20 11

ADP F
398 400 408 433 430 432 466 423 427 437 438 432 447 450 454 457 460 463 466 469 472 475 479 482 485 488 491 494 497 500 504 507
3

Total 1,917 1,965 1,996 2,027 1,993 1,994 2,119 2,056 2,044 2,072 2,067 2,103 2,118 2,132 2,145 2,159 2,173 2,186 2,200 2,213 2,227 2,241 2,254 2,268 2,282 2,295 2,309 2,323 2,336 2,350 2,364 2,377
14

Youth

1,400 1,200 1,000
800 600 400 200
0

7/1/03 10/1/03 1/1/04 4/1/04 7/1/04 10/1/04 1/1/05 4/1/05 7/1/05 10/1/05 1/1/06 4/1/06 7/1/06 10/1/06 1/1/07 4/1/07 7/1/07 10/1/07 1/1/08 4/1/08 7/1/08 10/1/08 1/1/09 4/1/09 7/1/09 10/1/09 1/1/10 4/1/10 7/1/10 10/1/10 1/1/11 4/1/11

Placement Forecasts
Home Commitments
Actual and Forecasted Home Commitments Male Female Total

Office of Technology and Information Services

54

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Total Admissons

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male 3,431 3,466 3,560 3,615 3,679 3,744 3,808 3,873

Female 1,064 1,138 1,038 1,054 1,041 1,028 1,015 1,002

Total 4,495 4,604 4,598 4,669 4,720 4,772 4,823 4,875

Av/Yr. 65

-13

52

Forecasts are shaded yellow

Summary for Home Commitments
Total Admissions: Home Commitments are forecast to increase 52 per year (65 more males, 13 fewer females) during the FY2007FY2011 period.

ALOS

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male 169 168 160 156 152 147 142 137

Female 139 144 144 148 150 153 156 158

Av/Yr. -5

3

Forecasts are shaded yellow

Total 162 162 156 154 151 148 145 143
-3

Average Length of Stay: The average length of stay is forecast to decrease 3-days per year during the FY2007 FY2011 period. Since the ALOS for females showed at slight increase (+3 day per year), the decrease in total ALOS can be attributed to the males' decreasing rate (-5 days per year).
Average Daily Population: The average daily population is forecast to increase 48 per year (36 males, 12 females) during the FY2007FY2011 period. Since the ALOS decreased slightly, the increase in the ADP reflects the growth in admissions.

ADP

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male 1,579 1,616 1,652 1,688 1,724 1,760 1,797 1,833

Female 413 441 437 454 466 478 490 502

Total 1,992 2,057 2,089 2,142 2,191 2,239 2,287 2,335

Av/Yr. 36

12

48

Forecasts are shaded yellow

Office of Technology and Information Services

55

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Non-Secure Residential

FY Totals by Quarter

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

600

FY

M F Total M F Total M F Total

7/1/03 348 120 468 145 128 140 576 196 773

10/1/03 301 116 417 165 164 165 558 212 770

1/1/04 351 124 475 157 171 161 537 204 741

4/1/04 369 138 507 152 163 156 559 196 756

500

7/1/04 397 143 540 136 104 127 598 201 799

10/1/04 348 120 468 165 159 163 641 223 864

1/1/05 221 72 293 157 212 170 531 177 708

4/1/05 180 92 272 179 148 170 418 145 563

7/1/05 232 107 339 196 142 179 377 137 514

400

10/1/05 302 116 418 156 152 155 428 151 580

1/1/06 358 126 484 154 105 141 496 180 677

4/1/06 354 132 486 152 132 146 575 203 777

Youth

7/1/06 286 113 398 166 136 157 459 161 619

300

10/1/06 281 112 393 167 134 158 448 157 605

1/1/07 277 112 388 168 132 158 438 153 591

4/1/07 273 111 384 169 130 158 428 149 577

7/1/07 268 110 379 171 128 158 418 145 563

10/1/07 264 110 374 172 126 158 408 141 549

200

1/1/08 260 109 369 173 125 159 398 138 535

4/1/08 255 108 364 174 123 159 387 134 521

7/1/08 251 108 359 175 121 159 377 130 507

10/1/08 247 107 354 176 119 159 367 126 493

1/1/09 243 106 349 177 117 159 357 122 479

100

4/1/09 238 106 344 178 115 159 347 118 465

7/1/09 234 105 339 179 113 160 337 114 451

10/1/09 230 104 334 180 111 160 327 111 437

1/1/10 225 104 329 181 110 160 316 107 423

4/1/10 221 103 324 182 108 160 306 103 409

0

7/1/10 217 102 319 183 106 160 296 99 395

10/1/10 213 102 314 184 104 161 286 95 381

1/1/11 208 101 309 185 102 161 276 91 367

4/1/11 204 100 304 186 100 161 266 88 353

Av/Qrt -4 -1 -5 1.06 -1.89 0.19 -10 -4 -14
Forecast ed values are shaded yellow

Office of Technology and Information Services

7/1/03 10/1/03 1/1/04 4/1/04 7/1/04 10/1/04 1/1/05 4/1/05 7/1/05 10/1/05 1/1/06 4/1/06 7/1/06 10/1/06 1/1/07 4/1/07 7/1/07 10/1/07 1/1/08 4/1/08 7/1/08 10/1/08 1/1/09 4/1/09 7/1/09 10/1/09 1/1/10 4/1/10 7/1/10 10/1/10 1/1/11 4/1/11

Placement Forecasts
Non-Secure Residential

Actual and Forecasted Non-Secure Residential Placements

Male

Female

Total

56

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Total Admissons

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male 2,710 2,568 2,047 1,779 1,447 1,116 784 453

Female 1,002 1,027 1,135 1,188 1,254 1,321 1,387 1,454

Total 3,712 3,595 3,182 2,966 2,701 2,436 2,171 1,906

Av/Yr. -332 67 -265 Forecasts are shaded yellow

ALOS

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male 124 120 144 149 159 169 179 189

Female 127 115 110 101 93 84 76 68

Av/Yr. 10

-8

Forecasts are shaded yellow

Total 125 119 132 132 136 139 143 146
4

Summary for Non-Secure Residential
Total Admissions: Non-Secure Residential placements are forecast to decrease 265 per year (332 fewer males, 67 more females) during the FY2007FY2011 period. Average Length of Stay: The average length of stay is forecast to increase 4-days per year during the FY2007 FY2011 period. Average Daily Population: The average daily population is forecast to decrease 43 per year (65 fewer males, 22 more females) during the FY2007FY2011 period. Since the ALOS for commitments decreased slightly, the increase in the ADP reflects the growth in commitment admissions.

ADP

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male 883 906 752 717 651 586 521 456

Female 313 345 358 384 406 429 451 473

Total 1,196 1,251 1,111 1,100 1,058 1,015 972 929

Av/Yr. -65

22

-43

Forecasts are shaded yellow

Office of Technology and Information Services

57

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Probation Under Supervision in the Community

FY Totals by Quarter

FY 7/1/03

ADMs

M

F Total

2,156 852 3,008

ALOS

ADP

M F Total M

F Total

201 202 201 4,932 1,906 6,838

10/1/03 2,402 966 3,368 205 187 200 4,993 2,024 7,017 1/1/04 2,446 996 3,442 196 199 197 5,108 2,064 7,172 4/1/04 2,501 1,025 3,526 197 200 198 5,112 2,079 7,191

7/1/04 2,235 834 3,069 198 198 198 5,038 1,996 7,034 10/1/04 2,324 995 3,319 192 182 189 4,941 1,941 6,882

1/1/05 2,423 961 3,384 198 193 197 4,843 1,965 6,808 4/1/05 2,283 903 3,186 191 190 191 4,666 1,865 6,530

7/1/05 1,859 738 2,597 200 196 199 4,409 1,783 6,192 10/1/05 1,983 764 2,747 195 201 197 4,177 1,670 5,847 1/1/06 2,005 769 2,774 211 226 215 4,039 1,627 5,666 4/1/06 1,811 754 2,565 186 193 188 3,836 1,561 5,398

7/1/06 1,884 770 2,654 195 202 197 3,950 1,601 5,551 10/1/06 1,872 764 2,636 194 203 197 3,838 1,559 5,398

1/1/07 1,860 759 2,619 194 204 197 3,727 1,518 5,245 4/1/07 1,847 754 2,601 194 205 197 3,615 1,476 5,091

7/1/07 1,835 748 2,584 193 205 196 3,504 1,434 4,938 10/1/07 1,823 743 2,566 193 206 196 3,392 1,392 4,785

1/1/08 1,811 738 2,549 192 207 196 3,281 1,350 4,631 4/1/08 1,799 732 2,531 192 208 196 3,169 1,308 4,478 7/1/08 1,786 727 2,514 192 209 196 3,058 1,266 4,325

10/1/08 1,774 722 2,496 191 209 196 2,946 1,224 4,172 1/1/09 1,762 717 2,479 191 210 196 2,835 1,182 4,018 4/1/09 1,750 711 2,461 190 211 196 2,723 1,140 3,865

7/1/09 1,738 706 2,444 190 212 196 2,612 1,099 3,712 10/1/09 1,725 701 2,426 190 213 196 2,500 1,057 3,558

1/1/10 1,713 695 2,409 189 213 195 2,389 1,015 3,405 4/1/10 1,701 690 2,391 189 214 195 2,277 973 3,252

7/1/10 1,689 685 2,374 188 215 195 2,166 931 3,098 10/1/10 1,677 679 2,356 188 216 195 2,054 889 2,945 1/1/11 1,664 674 2,339 188 217 195 1,943 847 2,792 4/1/11 1,652 669 2,321 187 217 195 1,831 805 2,639

Av/Qrt -12.2 5.3
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

-6.9 -0.4 0.8

-0.1 -111.5 -41.9 -153.3

Youth

3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000
500 0

7/1/03 10/1/03 1/1/04 4/1/04 7/1/04 10/1/04 1/1/05 4/1/05 7/1/05 10/1/05 1/1/06 4/1/06 7/1/06 10/1/06 1/1/07 4/1/07 7/1/07 10/1/07 1/1/08 4/1/08 7/1/08 10/1/08 1/1/09 4/1/09 7/1/09 10/1/09 1/1/10 4/1/10 7/1/10 10/1/10 1/1/11 4/1/11

Placement Forecasts
Probation under Supervision in the Community

Actual and Forecasted Probation Under Supervision in the Community

Male

Female

Total

Office of Technology and Information Services

58

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Total Admissons

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male 9,506 9,264 7,658 7,463 7,268 7,072 6,877 6,682

Female 3,839 3,694 3,025 3,046 2,961 2,877 2,792 2,707

Total 13,345 12,958 10,683 10,509 10,229 9,949 9,669 9,389

Av/Yr. -195

-85

Forecasts are shaded yellow

-280

ALOS

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male 199 195 198 194 193 191 189 188

Female 197 191 204 203 207 210 213 216

Av/Yr. -2

3

Forecasts are shaded yellow

Total 199 194 200 197 196 196 195 195
-1

Summary for Probation under Supervision in the Community
Total Admissions: Probation admissions are forecast to decrease 280 per year (195 males, 85 females) during the FY2007FY2011 period. In FY2006, admissions decreased 2,275 from the preceding year; this represented an 18% decrease. Average Length of Stay: The average length of stay is forecast to decrease 1-day per year during the FY2007FY2011 period. Average Daily Population: The average daily population is forecast to decrease 613 per year (446 males, 168 females) during the FY2007FY2011 period.

ADP

FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Male 5,078 4,913 4,150 3,783 3,337 2,891 2,445 1,999

Female 2,035 1,958 1,676 1,538 1,371 1,203 1,036 868

Av/Yr. -446 -168 Forecasts are shaded yellow

Total 7,113 6,871 5,825 5,321 4,708 4,095 3,482 2,869
-613

Office of Technology and Information Services

59

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Office of Technology and Information Services

60

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011
RYDC AND YDC POPULATION FORECASTS

Office of Technology and Information Services

61

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

FY Totals by Quarter

ADMs ALOS ADP FY

%

Total Total Total Capacity

7/1/03 3,247 20 758

76%

10/1/03 3,457 21 836 1/1/04 3,857 21 885

84% 89%

4/1/04 3,396 24 955

96%

7/1/04 3,367 24 883 10/1/04 3,456 24 972 1/1/05 3,712 26 908

89% 97% 91%

4/1/05 3,617 26 961 7/1/05 3,477 23 859 10/1/05 3,689 22 892

96% 86% 89%

1/1/06 4,235 21 947 4/1/06 3,943 21 966

95% 97%

7/1/06 3,960 23 971

97%

10/1/06 4,012 23 981 1/1/07 4,064 23 992 4/1/07 4,116 23 1,002

98% 99% 101%

7/1/07 4,168 23 1,013 10/1/07 4,220 23 1,024 1/1/08 4,272 23 1,034

102% 103% 104%

4/1/08 4,324 24 1,045 7/1/08 4,376 24 1,055 10/1/08 4,428 24 1,066

105% 106% 107%

1/1/09 4,480 24 1,076 4/1/09 4,532 24 1,087 7/1/09 4,584 24 1,098

108% 109% 110%

10/1/09 4,637 24 1,108 1/1/10 4,689 24 1,119 4/1/10 4,741 24 1,129

111% 112% 113%

7/1/10 4,793 24 1,140 10/1/10 4,845 24 1,151

114% 115%

1/1/11 4,897 24 1,161 4/1/11 4,949 24 1,172

116% 118%

Av/Qrt 52 0.1 11 Forecasted values are shaded yellow

% Capacit

130% 120% 110% 100%
90% 80%
76% 70%

RYDC Bed Capacity Forecasts Male Bed Capacity

Actual and Forecasted ADP as Percent of FY06 RYDC Male Beds

97%

Actual Forecasted

97%

101% 98%

105%

110%

113%

118%

86%

RYDC Male Bed Capacity 997

60% 7/1/0130/1/031/1/044/1/047/1/0140/1/041/1/054/1/057/1/0150/1/051/1/064/1/067/1/0160/1/061/1/074/1/077/1/0170/1/071/1/084/1/087/1/0180/1/081/1/094/1/097/1/0190/1/091/1/104/1/107/1/1100/1/101/1/114/1/11
Successive Quarters

Office of Technology and Information Services

62

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

FY Totals by Quarter

ADMs ALOS ADP FY

%

Total Total Total Capacity

7/1/03 1,212 16 197 10/1/03 1,321 14 209 1/1/04 1,471 14 237 4/1/04 1,302 18 243 7/1/04 1,304 15 217 10/1/04 1,389 16 255 1/1/05 1,511 15 237 4/1/05 1,442 17 269 7/1/05 1,313 16 226 10/1/05 1,408 15 239 1/1/06 1,432 15 220 4/1/06 1,360 16 247

68% 72% 82% 84% 75% 88% 82% 93% 78% 82% 76% 85%

7/1/06 1,435 16 249 86% 10/1/06 1,445 16 252 87% 1/1/07 1,455 16 254 88% 4/1/07 1,464 16 257 89% 7/1/07 1,474 16 259 89% 10/1/07 1,484 16 262 90% 1/1/08 1,493 16 264 91% 4/1/08 1,503 16 267 92% 7/1/08 1,513 16 269 93% 10/1/08 1,523 16 272 94% 1/1/09 1,532 16 275 95% 4/1/09 1,542 16 277 96% 7/1/09 1,552 16 280 96% 10/1/09 1,561 16 282 97% 1/1/10 1,571 16 285 98% 4/1/10 1,581 16 287 99% 7/1/10 1,591 16 290 100% 10/1/10 1,600 16 292 101% 1/1/11 1,610 16 295 102% 4/1/11 1,620 16 297 102%

Av/Qrt 10 0.0 3 Forecasted values are shaded yellow

% Capacit

RYDC Bed Capacity Forecasts Female Bed Capacity

110% 100%
90% 80%

Actual and Forecasted ADP as Percent of FY06 RYDC Female Beds
Actual Forecasted

84%

93% 85%

95%

101%

70% 68%
60%

RYDC Female Bed Capacity 290

50% 7/1/0310/1/031/1/044/1/047/1/0410/1/041/1/054/1/057/1/0510/1/051/1/064/1/067/1/0610/1/061/1/074/1/077/1/0710/1/071/1/084/1/087/1/0810/1/081/1/094/1/097/1/0910/1/091/1/104/1/107/1/1010/1/101/1/114/1/11
Successive Quarters

Office of Technology and Information Services

63

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

RYDC Total

FY Totals by Quarter

FY

ADMs ALOS ADP

%

Total Total Total Capacity

7/1/03 4,459 19 955

74%

10/1/03 4,778 19 1,045 81%

1/1/04 5,328 20 1,121 87%

4/1/04 4,698 22 1,198 93%

7/1/04 4,671 22 1,101 86%

10/1/04 4,845 22 1,227 95%

1/1/05 5,223 22 1,145 89%

4/1/05 5,059 23 1,231 96%

7/1/05 4,790 21 1,085 84%

10/1/05 5,097 20 1,131 88%

1/1/06 5,667 20 1,167 91% 4/1/06 5,303 20 1,213 94%

7/1/06 5,395 21 1,220 95%

10/1/06 5,457 21 1,233 96%

1/1/07 5,518 21 1,246 97%

4/1/07 5,580 21 1,259 98%

7/1/07 5,642 21 1,272 99%

10/1/07 5,704 21 1,286 100%

1/1/08 5,765 21 1,299 101%

4/1/08 5,827 22 1,312 102%

7/1/08 5,889 22 1,325 103%

10/1/08 5,951 22 1,338 104%

1/1/09 6,013 22 1,351 105%

4/1/09 6,074 22 1,364 106%

7/1/09 6,136 22 1,377 107%

10/1/09 6,198 22 1,390 108%

1/1/10 6,260 22 1,403 109%

4/1/10 6,322 22 1,417 110%

7/1/10 6,383 22 1,430 111%

10/1/10 6,445 22 1,443 112%

1/1/11 6,507 22 1,456 113% 4/1/11 6,569 22 1,469 114%

Av/Qrt 62 0.1 13 Forecasted values are shaded yellow

%Capacity

120% 110% 100%
90% 80%
74% 70%

RYDC Bed Capacity Forecasts Total Bed Capacity

Actual and Forecasted ADP as Percent of FY06 RYDC Beds
Actual Forecasted

4/1/10, 110%

1/1/08, 101%

95%

4/1/06,

7/1/07,

94%

99%

84%
Total RYDC Bed Capacity 1,287

60%
Jul-03Sep-03Nov-03Jan-04Mar-04May-04Jul-04Sep-04Nov-04Jan-05Mar-05May-05Jul-05Sep-05Nov-05Jan-06Mar-06May-06Jul-06Sep-06Nov-06Jan-07Mar-07May-07Jul-07Sep-07Nov-07Jan-08Mar-08May-08Jul-08Sep-08Nov-08Jan-09Mar-09May-09Jul-09Sep-09Nov-09Jan-10Mar-10May-10Jul-10Sep-10Nov-10Jan-11Mar-11
Successive Quarters

Office of Technology and Information Services

64

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

FY Totals by Quarter

ADMs ALOS ADP FY

%

Total Total Total Capacity

7/1/03 118 377 712

76%

10/1/03 187 355 718 1/1/04 237 335 705 4/1/04 154 320 707

76% 75% 75%

7/1/04 177 345 706 10/1/04 167 320 725 1/1/05 251 317 743

75% 77% 79%

4/1/05 204 310 790 7/1/05 248 331 819 10/1/05 287 328 868

84% 87% 92%

1/1/06 255 357 894 4/1/06 210 381 903

95% 96%

7/1/06 267 338 903

96%

10/1/06 276 338 923

98%

1/1/07 285 338 942 100%

4/1/07 295 338 962 102%

7/1/07 304 10/1/07 313 1/1/08 322

338 982 104% 338 1,002 107% 337 1,022 109%

4/1/08 331 7/1/08 340 10/1/08 349

337 1,041 111% 337 1,061 113% 337 1,081 115%

1/1/09 358 4/1/09 368 7/1/09 377

337 1,101 117% 337 1,121 119% 336 1,140 121%

10/1/09 386 1/1/10 395 4/1/10 404

336 1,160 123% 336 1,180 126% 336 1,200 128%

7/1/10 413 10/1/10 422 1/1/11 431 4/1/11 441

336 1,220 130% 335 1,239 132% 335 1,259 134% 335 1,279 136%

Av/Qrt 9

-0.2 20

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

% Capactit

YDC Long-Term Bed Capacity Forecasts Male Bed Capacity

Actual and Forecasted ADP as Percent of FY06 YDC Long-Term Male Beds

140% 130% 120% 110% 100%
90% 80%
76% 70%

92%

Actual

136%

Forecasted

130%

126%

121%

117%

113%

109%

100%

104%

96%

84%

77%

Male Long-Term Bed Capacity 940

60% 7/1/0130/1/031/1/044/1/047/1/0140/1/041/1/054/1/057/1/0150/1/051/1/064/1/067/1/0160/1/061/1/074/1/077/1/0170/1/071/1/084/1/087/1/0180/1/081/1/094/1/097/1/0190/1/091/1/104/1/107/1/1100/1/101/1/114/1/11
Successive Quarters

Office of Technology and Information Services

65

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

FY Totals by Quarter

ADMs ALOS ADP FY

%

Total Total Total Capacity

7/1/03 20 391 74

61%

10/1/03 19 327 74 1/1/04 28 252 72

61% 60%

4/1/04 25 262 72

60%

7/1/04 38 234 79 10/1/04 14 227 76 1/1/05 29 256 70

66% 63% 58%

4/1/05 36 204 77 7/1/05 37 332 80 10/1/05 47 169 97

64% 67% 81%

1/1/06 29 4/1/06 34

192 105 277 104

87% 87%

7/1/06 40

198 100

83%

10/1/06 41 1/1/07 43 4/1/07 44

188 103 179 106 169 109

86% 88% 91%

7/1/07 46 10/1/07 48 1/1/08 49

159 112 150 114 140 117

93% 95% 98%

4/1/08 51 7/1/08 52 10/1/08 54

130 120 121 123 111 126

100% 103% 105%

1/1/09 55 4/1/09 57 7/1/09 59

102 129 92 132 82 134

107% 110% 112%

10/1/09 60 1/1/10 62 4/1/10 63

73 137 114% 63 140 117% 53 143 119%

7/1/10 65 10/1/10 66

44 146 122% 34 149 124%

1/1/11 68 4/1/11 69

24 152 126% 15 154 129%

Av/Qrt 2

-9.6

3

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

%Bed Capaci

YDC Long-Term Bed Capacity Forecasts Female Bed Capacity

140% 130% 120% 110% 100%
90% 80%

Actual and Forecasted ADP as Percent of FY06 YDC Long-Term Female Beds

Actual Forecasted

129%

87%

100%
98% 93%

114% 110% 105%

122%

81%

70%
60% 61%
50%

64%

Female Long-Term Bed Capacity 120

40% 7/1/0130/1/031/1/044/1/047/1/0140/1/041/1/054/1/057/1/0150/1/051/1/064/1/067/1/0160/1/061/1/074/1/077/1/0170/1/071/1/084/1/087/1/0180/1/081/1/094/1/097/1/0190/1/091/1/104/1/107/1/1100/1/101/1/114/1/11
Successive Quarters

Office of Technology and Information Services

66

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011
APPENDIX A
Population Estimates of At-Risk Youth by Regions and Districts

Office of Technology and Information Services

67

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

DJJ Regions and Districts

Office of Technology and Information Services

68

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Population Estimates of At-Risk Youth by Regions and Districts

Statewide Population of At-Risk Youth Age 10 to 16 in DJJ Regions and Districts 2004 - 2011

Regions & Districts

2004

Region 1 124,389 District 1 77,786 District 4 46,602
Region 2 151,126 District 2 51,548 District 5 49,971 District 7 49,607
Region 3 378,191 District 3A 155,323 District 3B 222,868
Region 4 125,561 District 6 47,230 District 8 38,177
District 10 40,154
Region 5 128,872 District 9 28,984
District 11 39,765 District 12 60,122
STATE 908,138

2005
127,888 80,120 47,768 155,116 53,555 51,583 49,978 387,292 160,162 227,130 126,692 47,734 38,524 40,434 129,785 29,262 39,861 60,663 926,773

2006
130,816 82,069 48,747 158,959 55,787 53,002 50,171 395,362 164,703 230,659 127,818 48,234 38,966 40,618 130,394 29,469 39,786 61,138 943,350

Population Change
6,428 4,283 2,145 7,834 4,239 3,031 563 17,172 9,380 7,791 2,257 1,004 789 464 1,522 485
21 1,016 35,212

% Change
20042006
5.2% 5.5% 4.6%
5.2% 8.2% 6.1% 1.1%
4.5% 6.0% 3.5%
1.8% 2.1% 2.1% 1.2%
1.2% 1.7% 0.1% 1.7%
3.9%

Av Change per Year
3,214 2,141 1,072
3,917 2,120 1,515 282
8,586 4,690 3,896
1,129 502 395 232
761 242 11 508
17,606

2007
132,600 83,243 49,357 161,780 57,682 53,879 50,218 399,865 167,985 231,880 127,389 48,060 38,885 40,444 129,764 29,288 39,395 61,082 951,398

2008
134,397 84,450 49,947 164,451 59,330 55,013 50,109 406,048 171,565 234,483 126,975 47,936 38,693 40,346 130,055 29,215 39,430 61,410 961,927

2009
136,947 86,052 50,896 167,156 61,029 56,162 49,966 412,720 175,448 237,272 127,082 47,951 38,767 40,363 130,125 29,128 39,316 61,681 974,030

2010
141,459 87,937 53,521 170,405 62,834 57,612 49,959 419,689 179,771 239,918 127,462 48,327 38,688 40,447 130,041 29,053 39,263 61,725 989,055

2011

Population Change

143,494 90,004 53,490
175,424 65,428 59,562 50,434
429,510 184,403 245,108
128,788 48,556 39,392 40,841
131,391 29,197 39,384 62,810
1,008,608

10,894 6,761 4,133
13,644 7,746 5,682 216
29,645 16,418 13,227
1,400 496 507 397
1,627 -90 -11
1,729
57,210

% Change
20072011
8.2% 8.1% 8.4%
8.4% 13.4% 10.5% 0.4%
7.4% 9.8% 5.7%
1.1% 1.0% 1.3% 1.0%
1.3% -0.3% 0.0% 2.8%
6.0%

Av.Change per Year
2,885 1,701 1,184 3,324 1,900 1,396
28 7,293 4,104 3,189 329 138 101
89 324 -34 -19 377 14,155

Office of Technology and Information Services

69

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011
APPENDIX B
Statewide and Regional Most Serious Offenses at Intake

Office of Technology and Information Services

70

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011
Statewide and Regional Most Serious Offenses at Intake

Forecast of Statewide Most Serious Offenses (MSO) at Intake

Actual Numbers

Forecasts

MSO
Drug Sales Males
Females Drug Use
Males Females Property
Males Females Public Order
Males Females Non-Violent Sex
Males Females Status
Males Females Traffic
Males Females Violent
Males Females Violent Sex
Males Females Technical
Males Females Weapons
Males Females Total
Males Females

%

2004

2005

2006

Change 2004-

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2006

574 636 817 42.3% 919 1,040 1,162 1,283 1,405 464 510 637 37.3% 710 797 883 970 1,056

110 126 180 63.6% 209 244 279 314 349

2,235 2,241 2,598 16.2% 2,721 2,903 3,084 3,266 3,447 1,679 1,711 1,981 18.0% 2,092 2,243 2,394 2,545 2,696

556 530 617 11.0% 629 659 690 720 751

8,012 7,680 9,074 13.3% 9,317 9,848 10,379 10,910 11,441 6,001 5,708 6,946 15.7% 7,163 7,636 8,108 8,581 9,053

2,011 1,972 2,128 5.8% 2,154 2,213 2,271 2,330 2,388

5,571 5,730 6,719 20.6% 7,155 7,729 8,303 8,877 9,451 3,499 3,523 4,222 20.7% 4,471 4,833 5,194 5,556 5,917

2,072 2,207 2,497 20.5% 2,684 2,896 3,109 3,321 3,534

308 262 264 -14.3% 234 212 190 168 146 172 154 164 -4.7% 155 151 147 143 139

136 108 100 -26.5% 79 61 43 25

7

6,954 7,307 8,085 16.3% 8,580 9,145 9,711 10,276 10,842 3,225 3,460 3,970 23.1% 4,297 4,669 5,042 5,414 5,787

3,729 3,847 4,115 10.4% 4,283 4,476 4,669 4,862 5,055

4,337 4,087 4,426 2.1% 4,372 4,417 4,461 4,506 4,550 2,887 2,707 2,840 -1.6% 2,764 2,741 2,717 2,694 2,670

1,450 1,380 1,586 9.4% 1,608 1,676 1,744 1,812 1,880

5,681 5,794 6,910 21.6% 7,357 7,972 8,586 9,201 9,815 3,777 3,898 4,677 23.8% 5,017 5,467 5,917 6,367 6,817

1,904 1,896 2,233 17.3% 2,340 2,505 2,669 2,834 2,998

700 675 717 2.4% 714 723 731 740 748 671 631 688 2.5% 680 689 697 706 714

29 44

29 0.0% 34 34 34 34 34

1,721 1,987 1,933 12.3% 2,092 2,198 2,304 2,410 2,516 1,104 1,266 1,292 17.0% 1,409 1,503 1,597 1,691 1,785

617 721 641 3.9% 684 696 708 720 732

901 954 1,226 36.1% 1,352 1,515 1,677 1,840 2,002 707 737 1,006 42.3% 1,116 1,265 1,415 1,564 1,714

194 217 220 13.4% 236 249 262 275 288

36,994 37,353 42,769 15.6% 44,814 47,701 50,589 53,476 56,364 24,186 24305 28,423 17.5% 29,875 31,994 34,112 36,231 38,349

12,808 13048 14346 12.0% 14,939 15,708 16,477 17,246 18,015

% Change
20072011

%

Av.

Change Change

2004- per Yr.

2011

52.9% 144.7% 48.7% 127.6% 67.1% 217.0%

122 87 35

26.7% 54.2% 28.9% 60.6% 19.4% 35.0%

182 151 31

22.8% 42.8% 26.4% 50.9% 10.9% 18.7%

531 473 59

32.1% 69.6% 32.3% 69.1% 31.7% 70.5%

574 362 213

-37.6% -52.6% -10.3% -19.0% -91.5% -95.1%

-22 -4
-18

26.4% 55.9% 34.7% 79.4% 18.0% 35.6%

566 373 193

4.1% 4.9% -3.4% -7.5% 16.9% 29.7%

45 -24 68

33.4% 72.8% 35.9% 80.5% 28.1% 57.5%

615 450 165

4.8% 6.9% 5.0% 6.5% 0.0% 17.2%

9 9 0

20.3% 46.2% 26.7% 61.7% 7.0% 18.6%

106 94 12

48.1% 122.2% 53.6% 142.4% 22.0% 48.6%

163 150 13

25.8% 52.4% 2,888 28.4% 58.6% 2,119 20.6% 40.7% 769

Office of Technology and Information Services

71

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

MSO
Drug Sales Males
Females Drug Use
Males Females Property
Males Females Public Order
Males Females Non-Violent Sex
Males Females Status
Males Females Traffic
Males Females Violent
Males Females Violent Sex
Males Females Technical
Males Females Weapons
Males Females Total
Males Females

Forecast of Region 1 Most Serious Offenses (MSO) at Intake

Actual Numbers

Forecasts

2004

2005

%

2006

Change 2004-

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

%

%

Av.

Change Change Change

2007- 2004- per Yr.

88 58 30
394 265 129
946 702 244
723 480 243
37 29 8
1,044 478 566
937 609 328
586 397 189
101 95 6
275 203 72
95 84 11
5,226 3,400 1,826

114 81 33
356 253 103
930 675 255
825 568 257 45 37 8
1,267 577 690
715 501 214
691 473 218
115 104 11
310 203 107
114 100 14
5,482 3,572 1,910

160 108 52
416 270 146
1,032 769 263
982 674 308
34 26 8
1,030 485 545
708 479 229
819 562 257
113 106 7
291 202 89
138 124 14
5,723 3,805 1,918

2006
81.8% 86.2% 73.3%
5.6% 1.9%
13.2%
9.1% 9.5% 7.8%
35.8% 40.4% 26.7%
-8.1% -10.3%
0.0%
-1.3% 1.5% -3.7%
-24.4% -21.3% -30.2%
39.8% 41.6% 36.0%
11.9% 11.6% 16.7%
5.8% -0.5% 23.6%
45.3% 47.6% 27.3%
9.5% 11.9%
5.0%

193 132 60
411 268 143
1,055 782 273
1,102 768 334 36 28 8
1,100 520 579
558 400 158
932 642 289
122 113 9
308 202 106
159 143 16
5,974 3,997 1,977

229 157 71
422 270 152
1,098 816 283
1,232 865 367 34 26 8
1,093 524 569
443 335 109
1,048 725 323
128 118 10
316 201 115
180 163 18
6,223 4,200 2,023

265 182 82
433 273 160
1,141 849 292
1,361 962 399 33 25 8
1,086 527 558
329 270 59
1,165 807 357
134 124 10
324 201 123
202 183 19
6,471 4,402 2,069

301 207 93
444 275 169
1,184 883 302
1,491 1,059
432 31
23 8
1,079 531 548
214 205 10
1,281 890 391
140 129 11
332 200 132
223 203 21
6,720 4,605 2,115

337 232 104
455 278 177
1,227 916 311
1,620 1,156
464 30
22 8
1,072 534 537
100 140 -40
1,398 972 425
146 135 11
340 200 140
245 223 22
6,968 4,807 2,161

2011 2011
74.7% 282.6% 75.6% 300.6% 72.9% 247.8%
10.7% 15.4% 3.7% 4.8%
23.8% 37.2%
16.3% 29.7% 17.1% 30.5% 13.9% 27.5%
47.0% 124.1% 50.5% 140.8% 38.9% 91.1%
-16.8% -19.8% -21.7% -25.3% 0.0% 0.0%
-2.5% 2.7% 2.7% 11.8% -7.2% -5.1%
-82.1% -89.4% -65.1% -77.1%
-125.3% -112.2%
50.0% 138.5% 51.4% 144.9% 47.0% 125.0%
19.7% 44.2% 19.5% 41.8% 22.2% 83.3%
10.4% 23.6% -1.0% -1.6% 32.0% 94.9%
54.2% 157.5% 56.1% 165.1% 37.5% 100.0%
16.6% 33.3% 20.3% 41.4% 9.3% 18.3%

36 25 11
11 3 9
43 34 10
130 97 33
-2 -2 0
-7 4
-11
-115 -65 -50
117 83 34
6 6 1
8 -1 9
22 20 2
249 203 46

Office of Technology and Information Services

Region 1
72

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

MSO
Drug Sales Males
Females Drug Use
Males Females Property
Males Females Public Order
Males Females Non-Violent Sex
Males Females Status
Males Females Traffic
Males Females Violent
Males Females Violent Sex
Males Females Technical
Males Females Weapons
Males Females Total
Males Females

Forecast of Region 2 Most Serious Offenses (MSO) at Intake

Actual Numbers

Forecasts

2004

2005

2006

%

Change 2004-

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

%

%

Av.

Change Change Change

2007- 2004- per Yr.

91 65 26
462 341 121
1,848 1,301 547
1,099 703 396
110 45 65
1,673 808 865
911 652 259

117 89 28
467 361 106
1,719 1,213
506 1,042
642 400 58
27 31 1,616 791 825 710 497 213

161 117 44
590 466 124
1,975 1,468
507 1,174
781 393 54
35 19 2,523 1,350 1,173 848 576 272

2006
76.9% 80.0% 69.2%
27.7% 36.7% 2.5%
6.9% 12.8% -7.3%
6.8% 11.1% -0.8%
-50.9% -22.2% -70.8%
50.8% 67.1% 35.6%
-6.9% -11.7%
5.0%

193 142 51
634 514 120
1,974 1,494
480 1,180
787 393 18
26 -8 2,787 1,525 1,262 760 499 261

228 168 60
698 577 122
2,038 1,578
460 1,218
826 392 -10
21 -31 3,212 1,796 1,416 729 461 268

263 194 69
762 639 123
2,101 1,661
440 1,255
865 390 -38
16 -54 3,637 2,067 1,570 697 423 274

298 220 78
826 702 125
2,165 1,745
420 1,293
904 389 -66
11 -77 4,062 2,338 1,724 666 385 281

333 246 87
890 764 126
2,228 1,828
400 1,330
943 387 -94
6 -100 4,487 2,609 1,878 634 347 287

2011 2011
72.5% 265.9% 73.1% 279.0% 71.1% 233.3%
40.4% 92.7% 48.6% 124.1% 5.0% 4.1%
12.9% 20.6% 22.4% 40.5% -16.7% -26.9%
12.7% 21.0% 19.8% 34.1% -1.5% -2.2%
-622.2% -185.5% -77.9% -87.4%
1200.0% -253.3%
61.0% 168.2% 71.1% 222.9% 48.8% 117.1%
-16.6% -30.4% -30.5% -46.8% 10.0% 10.8%

35 26 9
64 63 2
64 84 -20
38 39 -2
-28 -5
-23
425 271 154
-32 -38 7

1,437 930 507
146 139 7
240 143 97
218 165 53
8,235 5,292 2,943

1,357 893 464
151 141 10
271 179 92
206 165 41
7,714 4,998 2,716

1,330 895 435
173 171 2
210 157 53
273 225 48
9,311 6,241 3,070

-7.4% -3.8%
-14.2%
18.5% 23.0% -71.4%
-12.5% 9.8%
-45.4%
25.2% 36.4% -9.4%
13.1% 17.9% 4.3%

1,268 1,214 1,161 1,107 1,054

871 854 836 819 801

397 361 325 289 253

184 197 211 224 238

182 198 214 230 246

1

-1

-4

-6

-9

210 195 180 165 150

174 181 188 195 202

37

15

-7 -29 -51

287 315 342 370 397

245 275 305 335 365

42

40

37

35

32

9,496 10,034 10,572 11,110 11,648

6,459 6,934 7,408 7,883 8,357

3,037 3,100 3,164 3,227 3,291

-16.9% -26.7% -8.0% -13.9%
-36.3% -50.2%
29.4% 62.8% 35.1% 77.2%
-750.0% -223.8%
-28.5% -37.4% 16.1% 41.0%
-240.0% -152.9%
38.3% 82.3% 49.0% 121.2% -23.6% -39.0%
22.7% 41.4% 29.4% 57.9% 8.4% 11.8%

-54 -18 -36
14 16 -3
-15 7
-22
28 30 -3
538 475 64

Office of Technology and Information Services

Region 2
73

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

MSO
Drug Sales Males
Females Drug Use
Males Females Property
Males Females Public Order
Males Females Non-Violent Sex
Males Females Status
Males Females Traffic
Males Females Violent
Males Females Violent Sex
Males Females Technical
Males Females Weapons
Males Females Total
Males Females

Forecast of Region 3 Most Serious Offenses (MSO) at Intake

Actual Numbers

Forecasts

2004

2005

2006

%

Change 2004-

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

%

%

Av.

Change Change Change

2007- 2004- per Yr.

189 206

171 173

18

33

491 453

392 366

99

87

1,725 1,507

1,327 1,135

263 220 43
640 502 138
2,155 1,733

2006

39.2% 293 330 367 404 441

28.7% 237 262 286 311 335

138.9%

56

69

81

94 106

30.3% 677 752 826 901 975

28.1% 530 585 640 695 750

39.4% 147 167 186 206 225

24.9% 2,226 2,441 2,656 2,871 3,086

30.6% 1,804 2,007 2,210 2,413 2,616

2011 2011
50.5% 133.5% 41.4% 95.9% 88.8% 490.7%
44.0% 98.6% 41.5% 91.3% 53.1% 127.3%
38.6% 78.9% 45.0% 97.2%

37 25 13
75 55 20
215 203

398 372

1,093 1,103

776 729

317 374

55

42

39

26

16

16

1,209 1,106

513 484

696 622

258 208

203 160

55

48

1,477 1,552

1,060 1,065

417 487

208 176

202 172

6

4

910 1,060

579 660

331 400

248 284

194 214

54

70

7,863 7,697

5,456 5,184

2,407 2,513

422 1,291
869 422 59
35 24 1,395 618 777 235 175 60 2,146 1,502 644 194 190
4 989
633 356 382 331
51 9,749 6,808 2,941

6.0% 421 433 445 457 469

18.1% 1,360 1,459 1,558 1,657 1,756

12.0% 884 931 977 1,024 1,070

33.1% 476 529 581 634 686

7.3%

56

58

60

62

64

-10.3%

29

27

25

23

21

50.0%

27

31

35

39

43

15.4% 1,423 1,516 1,609 1,702 1,795

20.5% 643 696 748 801 853

11.6% 779 820 860 901 941

-8.9% 211 199 188 176 165

-13.8% 151 137 123 109

95

9.1%

59

62

64

67

69

45.3% 2,394 2,729 3,063 3,398 3,732

41.7% 1,651 1,872 2,093 2,314 2,535

54.4% 743 857 970 1,084 1,197

-6.7% 179 172 165 158 151

-5.9% 176 170 164 158 152

-33.3%

3

2

1

0

-1

8.7% 1,065 1,105 1,144 1,184 1,223

9.3% 678 705 732 759 786

7.6% 387 400 412 425 437

54.0% 439 506 573 640 707

70.6% 383 452 520 589 657

-5.6%

55

54

52

51

49

24.0% 10,322 11,265 12,208 13,151 14,094

24.8% 7,168 7,844 8,520 9,196 9,872

22.2% 3,154 3,421 3,688 3,955 4,222

11.4% 17.9%
29.1% 60.7% 21.0% 37.9% 44.1% 116.4%
14.3% 16.4% -27.3% -45.3% 60.0% 166.7%
26.1% 48.4% 32.6% 66.3% 20.8% 35.2%
-21.8% -36.2% -37.0% -53.0% 16.9% 26.1%
55.9% 152.7% 53.5% 139.2% 61.1% 187.1%
-15.7% -27.6% -13.6% -24.8%
-150.0% -122.2%
14.8% 34.4% 15.9% 35.8% 12.9% 32.1%
61.1% 184.9% 71.5% 238.8% -10.8% -8.6%
36.5% 79.2% 37.7% 80.9% 33.9% 75.4%

12
99 47 53
2 -2 4
93 53 41
-12 -14 3
335 221 114
-7 -6 -1
40 27 13
67 69 -2
943 676 267

Office of Technology and Information Services

Region 3
74

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

MSO
Drug Sales Males
Females Drug Use
Males Females Property
Males Females Public Order
Males Females Non-Violent Sex
Males Females Status
Males Females Traffic
Males Females Violent
Males Females Violent Sex
Males Females Technical
Males Females Weapons
Males Females Total
Males Females

Forecast of Region 4 Most Serious Offenses (MSO) at Intake

Actual Numbers

Forecasts

2004

2005

2006

%

Change 2004-

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

%

%

Av.

Change Change Change

2007- 2004- per Yr.

100 90 10
363 288 75
1,627 1,245

77 67 10
439 330 109
1,699 1,294

93 71 22
400 326 74
1,975 1,510

2006
-7.0% -21.1% 120.0%
10.2% 13.2% -1.3%
21.4% 21.3%

83 57 26
438 353 85
2,115 1,615

80 48 32
456 372 85
2,289 1,747

76 38 38
475 391 84
2,463 1,880

73 29 44
493 410 84
2,637 2,012

69 19 50
512 429 83
2,811 2,145

2011
-16.9% -66.7% 92.3%
16.9% 21.6% -2.4%
32.9% 32.8%

2011
-31.0% -78.9% 400.0%
41.0% 48.8% 10.7%
72.8% 72.3%

-4 -10 6
19 19 -1
174 133

382 405

1,228 1,293

723 766

505 527

34

55

23

35

11

20

1,158 1,288

532 626

626 662

911 912

596 593

315 319

941 1,023

612 691

329 332

111 114

107 102

4

12

64

72

42

48

22

24

168 143

124 105

44

38

6,705 7,115

4,382 4,657

2,323 2,458

465 1,454
822 632 50
32 18 1,309 638 671 991 599 392 1,282 857 425 124 112 12 88 59 29 172 127 45 7,938 5,153 2,785

21.7%
18.4% 13.7% 25.1%
47.1% 39.1% 63.6%
13.0% 19.9% 7.2%
8.8% 0.5%
24.4%
36.2% 40.0% 29.2%
11.7% 4.7%
200.0%
37.5% 40.5% 31.8%
2.4% 2.4% 2.3%
18.4% 17.6% 19.9%

500 1,551
869 682 62
39 23 1,403 705 698 1,018 599 419 1,423 965 458 129 112 17 99 67 32 165 122 43 8,486 5,502 2,984

542 1,664
919 745 70
44 27 1,478 758 721 1,058 601 458 1,594 1,088 506 136 115 21 111 75 36 167 123 44 9,102 5,887 3,215

583 625 666

1,777 1,890 2,003

968 1,018 1,067

809 872 936

78

86

94

48

53

57

30

34

37

1,554 1,629 1,705

811 864 917

743 766 788

1,098 1,138 1,178

602 604 605

496 535 573

1,764 1,935 2,105

1,210 1,333 1,455

554 602 650

142 149 155

117 120 122

25

29

33

123 135 147

84

92 101

39

43

46

169 171 173

125 126 128

44

45

45

9,719 10,335 10,952

6,273 6,658 7,044

3,446 3,677 3,908

33.2% 74.4%

29.1% 63.1% 22.8% 47.6% 37.3% 85.3%

51.3% 177.5% 46.2% 147.8% 60.0% 239.4%

21.5% 47.2% 30.1% 72.3% 12.9% 25.9%

15.7% 29.3% 1.0% 1.5%
36.8% 81.9%

47.9% 123.7% 50.8% 137.7% 41.9% 97.6%

20.1% 39.9% 8.9% 14.0%
92.3% 733.3%

48.6% 129.2% 51.0% 139.7% 43.8% 109.1%

4.8% 4.9% 4.6%

3.0% 3.0% 3.0%

29.1% 63.3% 28.0% 60.7% 31.0% 68.2%

42
113 50 64
8 5 4
76 53 23
40 2
39
171 123 48
7 3 4
12 9 4
2 2 1
617 386 231

Office of Technology and Information Services

Region 4
75

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

MSO
Drug Sales Males
Females Drug Use
Males Females Property
Males Females Public Order
Males Females Non-Violent Sex
Males Females Status
Males Females Traffic
Males Females Violent
Males Females Violent Sex
Males Females Technical
Males Females Weapons
Males Females Total
Males Females

Forecast of Region 5 Most Serious Offenses (MSO) at Intake

Actual Numbers

Forecasts

2004

2005

2006

%

Change 2004-

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

%

%

Av.

Change Change Change

2007- 2004- per Yr.

106 122

80 100

26

22

525 526

393 401

132 125

1,866 1,825

1,426 1,391

140 121 19
552 417 135
1,937 1,466

2006
32.1% 51.3% -26.9%
5.1% 6.1% 2.3%
3.8% 2.8%

157 141 15
561 428 134
1,947 1,468

174 162 12
575 440 135
1,983 1,488

191 182 8
588 452 137
2,018 1,508

208 203 5
602 464 138
2,054 1,528

225 223 1
615 476 140
2,089 1,548

2011 2011
43.4% 111.9% 58.0% 179.2% -91.3% -94.9%
9.6% 17.2% 11.2% 21.0% 4.5% 5.8%
7.3% 12.0% 5.5% 8.5%

17 21 -4
14 12 2
36 20

440 434

1,428 1,467

817 818

611 649

72

62

36

29

36

33

1,870 2,030

894 982

976 1,048

232 274

137 176

95

98

1,240 1,171

778 776

462 395

134 119

128 112

6

7

232 274

137 176

95

98

172 207

140 153

32

54

7,877 8,077

4,966 5,114

2,911 2,963

471 1,818 1,076
742 67
36 31 1,828 879 949 355 241 114 1,333 861 472 113 109
4 355
241 114 261 199
62 8,759 5,646 3,113

7.0%
27.3% 31.7% 21.4%
-6.9% 0.0%
-13.9%
-2.2% -1.7% -2.8%
53.0% 75.9% 20.0%
7.5% 10.7%
2.2%
-15.7% -14.8% -33.3%
53.0% 75.9% 20.0%
51.7% 42.1% 93.8%
11.2% 13.7% 6.9%

479 1,961 1,163
798 62
34 28 1,867 903 964 410 289 121 1,341 888 453 101 97
4 410
289 121 302 223
79 9,120 5,922 3,198

495 510 526 541

2,156 2,351 2,546 2,741

1,292 1,422 1,551 1,681

864 929 995 1,060

60

57

55

52

34

34

34

34

26

23

21

18

1,846 1,825 1,804 1,783

896 888 881 873

951 937 924 910

472 533 595 656

341 393 445 497

131 140 150 159

1,388 1,434 1,481 1,527

930 971 1,013 1,054

458 463 468 473

91

80

70

59

88

78

69

59

3

2

1

0

472 533 595 656

341 393 445 497

131 140 150 159

347 391 436 480

253 282 312 341

94 109 124 139

9,561 10,002 10,443 10,884

6,262 6,602 6,942 7,282

3,299 3,400 3,501 3,602

12.9% 23.0%
39.8% 91.9% 44.6% 105.7% 32.8% 73.5%
-16.1% -27.8% 0.0% -6.5%
-35.3% -49.1%
-4.5% -4.6% -3.3% -2.3% -5.6% -6.8%
60.0% 182.8% 72.1% 262.5% 31.3% 67.7%
13.9% 23.1% 18.7% 35.5% 4.4% 2.4%
-41.6% -56.0% -39.0% -53.6%
-109.1% -105.6%
60.0% 182.8% 72.1% 262.5% 31.3% 67.7%
58.9% 179.3% 52.9% 143.6% 75.6% 335.4%
19.3% 38.2% 23.0% 46.6% 12.6% 23.7%

16
195 130 66
-3 0 -3
-21 -8
-14
62 52 10
47 42 5
-11 -10 -1
62 52 10
45 30 15
441 340 101

Office of Technology and Information Services

Region 5
76

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Offenses

49,000

Forecast of Statewide Total Offenses at Intake by Gender

44,000

39,000 34,000

Total Forecasted Change: + 2,888 per Year + 26% from FY2007 to FY2011

Male Forecasted Change: + 2,119 per Year + 28% from FY2007 to FY2011

29,000

24,000 19,000

Female Forecasted Change: + 769 per Year + 21% from FY2007 to FY2011

14,000

9,000
Male Male Forecast Female Female Forecast

2004 24,186
12,808

2005 24,305
13,048

2006 28,423
14,346

2007

2008

29,875

31,994

14,939

15,708

Fiscal Year

2009 34,112 16,477

2010 36,231 17,246

2011 38,349 18,015

Office of Technology and Information Services

77

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011 1,050

Forecast of a "Drug Sales " MSO at Intake by Gender
Male Forecasted Change: + 87 per Year + 49% from FY2007 to FY2011

850

Offenses

650

450
250
50 Male Male Forecast Female Female Forecast

Total Forecasted Change: + 122 per Year + 53% from FY2007 to FY2011

2004 464
110

2005 510
126

2006 637
180

Female Forecasted Change: + 35 per Year + 67% from FY2007 to FY2011

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

710

797

883

970

1,056

209

244

279

314

349

Fiscal Year

Office of Technology and Information Services

78

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011 2,730

Forecast of a "Drug Use " MSO at Intake by Gender
Male Forecasted Change: + 151 per Year + 29% from FY2007 to FY2011

2,230

Offenses

1,730

1,230

Total Forecasted Change: + 182 per Year + 27% from FY2007 to FY2011

730

230
Male Male Forecast Female Female Forecast

2004 1,679
556

2005 1,711
530

2006 1,981
617

Female Forecasted Change: + 31 per Year + 19% from FY2007 to FY2011

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2,092

2,243

2,394

2,545

2,696

629

659

690

720

751

Fiscal Year

Office of Technology and Information Services

79

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Offenses

10,000 9,000

Forecast of a "Property " MSO at Intake by Gender
Male Forecasted Change: + 473 per Year + 26% from FY2007 to FY2011

8,000

7,000

6,000

5,000 4,000

Total Forecasted Change: + 531 per Year + 23% from FY2007 to FY2011

3,000

Female Forecasted Change: 59 per Year + 11% from FY2007 to FY2011

2,000

1,000
Male Male Forecast Female Female Forecast

2004 6,001
2,011

2005 5,708
1,972

2006 6,946
2,128

2007

2008

7,163

7,636

2,154

2,213

Fiscal Year

2009 8,108 2,271

2010 8,581 2,330

2011 9,053 2,388

Office of Technology and Information Services

80

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Offenses

6,500 6,000 5,500

Forecast of a "Public Order " MSO at Intake by Gender
Male Forecasted Change: + 362 per Year + 32% from FY2007 to FY2011

5,000

4,500

4,000

3,500 3,000

Total Forecasted Change: + 574 per Year + 32% from FY2007 to FY2011

2,500

2,000

Female Forecasted Change: + 213 per Year + 32% from FY2007 to FY2011

1,500
Male Male Forecast Female Female Forecast

2004 3,499
2,072

2005 3,523
2,207

2006 4,222
2,497

2007

2008

4,471

4,833

2,684

2,896

Fiscal Year

2009 5,194 3,109

2010 5,566 3,321

2011 5,917 3,534

Office of Technology and Information Services

81

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Offenses

Forecast of a "Non-Violent Sex " MSO at Intake by Gender 200

180 Male Forecasted Change: - 4 per Year - 10% from FY2007 to FY2011
160

140

120

100

Female Forecasted Change: - 18 per Year

80

- 92% from FY2007 to FY2011

60

Total Forecasted Change: - 22 per Year

- 38% from FY2007 to FY2011

40

20

0
Male Male Forecast Female Female Forecast

2004 172
136

2005 154
108

2006 164
100

2007

2008

155

151

79

61

Fiscal Year

2009 147 43

2010 143 25

2011 139
7

Office of Technology and Information Services

82

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Offenses

6,000 5,500

Forecast of a "Status " MSO at Intake by Gender
Male Forecasted Change: + 373 per Year + 35% from FY2007 to FY2011

5,000

4,500 4,000 3,500

Female Forecasted Change: + 193 per Year + 18% from FY2007 to FY2011

3,000 2,500

Total Forecasted Change: + 566 per Year + 26% from FY2007 to FY2011

2,000
Male Male Forecast Female Female Forecast

2004 3,225
3,729

2005 3,460
3,847

2006 3,970
4,115

2007

2008

4,297

4,669

4,283

4,476

Fiscal Year

2009 5,042 4,669

2010 5,414 4,862

2011 5,787 5,055

Office of Technology and Information Services

83

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Offenses

Forecast of a "Traffic " MSO at Intake by Gender

2,800

2,600 2,400

Male Forecasted Change: - 24 per Year - 3% from FY2007 to FY2011

2,200 2,000

Total Forecasted Change: + 45 per Year + 4% from FY2007 to FY2011

1,800

1,600 1,400

Female Forecasted Change: + 68 per Year + 17% from FY2007 to FY2011

1,200

1,000
Male Male Forecast Female Female Forecast

2004 2,887
1,450

2005 2,707
1,380

2006 2,840
1,586

2007

2008

2,764

2,741

1,608

1,676

Fiscal Year

2009 2,717 1,744

2010 2,694 1,812

2011 2,670 1,880

Office of Technology and Information Services

84

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011
7,500

Forecast of a "Violent " MSO at Intake by Gender

6,500

5,500 4,500

Male Forecasted Change: + 450 per Year + 36% from FY2007 to FY2011

Offenses

3,500

Total Forecasted Change: + 615 per Year + 33% from FY2007 to FY2011

2,500

Female Forecasted Change: + 165 per Year + 28% from FY2007 to FY2011

1,500
Male Male Forecast Female Female Forecast

2004 3,777
1,904

2005 3,898
1,896

2006 4,677
2,233

2007

2008

5,017

5,467

2,340

2,505

Fiscal Year

2009 5,917 2,669

2010 6,367 2,834

2011 6,817 2,998

Office of Technology and Information Services

85

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Offenses

Forecast of a "Violent Sex " MSO at Intake by Gender 800

700

600

Male Forecasted Change: + 9 per Year

+ 5% from FY2007 to FY2011

500

400

Total Forecasted Change: + 9 per Year

+ 5% from FY2007 to FY2011

300

200 Female Forecasted Change: 0 per Year 0% from FY2007 to FY2011
100

0
Male Male Forecast Female Female Forecast

2004 671
29

2005 631
44

2006 688
29

2007

2008

680

689

34

34

Fiscal Year

2009 697 34

2010 706 34

2011 714 34

Office of Technology and Information Services

86

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Offenses

2,050 1,850 1,650

Forecast of a "Technical " MSO at Intake by Gender
Male Forecasted Change: + 94 per Year + 27% from FY2007 to FY2011

1,450

1,250

1,050 850

Total Forecasted Change: + 106 per Year + 20% from FY2007 to FY2011

Female Forecasted Change: + 12 per Year + 7% from FY2007 to FY2011

650

450

250
Male Male Forecast Female Female Forecast

2004 1,104
617

2005 1,266
721

2006 1,292
641

2007

2008

1,409

1,503

684

696

Fiscal Year

2009 1,597 708

2010 1,691 720

2011 1,785 732

Office of Technology and Information Services

87

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Offenses

1,800

Forecast of a "Weapons " MSO at Intake by Gender

1,600

1,400

1,200 1,000

Male Forecasted Change: + 150 per Year + 54% from FY2007 to FY2011

800

600 Total Forecasted Change: + 163 per Year + 48% from FY2007 to FY2011
400

200

0
Male Male Forecast Female Female Forecast

2004 707
194

2005 737
217

2006 1,006
220

2007

Female Forecasted Change: + 13 per Year + 22% from FY2007 to FY2011

2008

2009

2010

2011

1,116

1,265

1,415

1,564

1,714

236

249

262

275

288

Fiscal Year

Office of Technology and Information Services

88

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Office of Technology and Information Services

89

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011
APPENDIX C
Regional Legal Status and Placement Forecasts

Office of Technology and Information Services

90

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Regional Legal Status and Placement Forecasts

Region 1
FY Totals

FY

ADMs

ALOS

M

F Total M F Total M

04 3,409 1,834 5,243 73 69 72 635

05 3,571 1,924 5,495 70 63 68 726

06 3,838 1,932 5,770 84 74 81 888

07 4,035 1,995 6,030 87 73 82 1,003

08 4,250 2,044 6,293 93 75 87 1,129

09 4,464 2,093 6,557 98 77 91 1,255

10 4,679 2,142 6,820 104 79 96 1,382

11 4,893 2,191 7,084 110 81 100 1,508

Av/Yr 215 49 264 6 2 4 126
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Region 3
FY Totals

FY

ADMs

ALOS

M

F Total M F Total M

04 5,451 2,401 7,852 33 36 34 479

05 5,151 2,499 7,650 31 31 31 474

06 6,881 2,982 9,863 35 34 34 826

07 7,258 3,208 10,466 35 32 34 939

08 7,973 3,499 11,472 35 31 34 1,113

09 8,688 3,789 12,477 36 30 34 1,286

10 9,403 4,080 13,483 37 29 35 1,459

11 10,118 4,370 14,488 38 28 35 1,632

Av/Yr 715 291 1,006 1 -1 0 173
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Region 5
FY Totals

FY

ADMs

ALOS

M

F Total M F Total M

04 5,657 3,296 8,953 41 35 39 627

05 5,907 3,453 9,360 38 35 37 635

06 6,416 3,658 10,074 45 38 42 952

07 6,752 3,831 10,583 45 39 43 1,063

08 7,132 4,012 11,144 47 41 45 1,225

09 7,511 4,193 11,704 49 42 46 1,388

10 7,891 4,374 12,265 51 44 48 1,550

11 8,270 4,555 12,825 53 45 50 1,712

Av/Yr 380 181 561 2 2 2 162
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Legal Status: Intake

ADP
F 305 351 407 457 508 559 610 661
51

Total 940 1,077 1,295 1,459 1,637 1,814 1,992 2,169
178

ADP
F 233 225 353 390 450 510 570 630
60

Total 713 700 1,179 1,330 1,563 1,796 2,029 2,262
233

ADP
F 308 336 474 539 622 705 789 872
83

Total 935 972 1,426 1,602 1,848 2,093 2,339 2,584
246

Region 2

FY Totals

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M

F Total M F Total M F Total

04 5,425 2,950 8,375 55 51 54 814 391 1,205

05 5,070 2,726 7,796 58 52 56 840 429 1,269

06 6,353 3,161 9,514 60 57 59 1,192 550 1,742

07 6,544 3,157 9,701 62 60 61 1,326 615 1,941

08 7,008 3,262 10,270 64 63 64 1,515 694 2,210

09 7,472 3,368 10,840 67 67 67 1,704 773 2,478

10 7,936 3,473 11,409 69 70 69 1,893 853 2,746

11 8,400 3,579 11,979 71 73 72 2,082 932 3,014

Av/Yr 464 106 570 2 3 3 189 79 268
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Region 4

FY Totals

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M

F Total M F Total M F Total

04 4,394 2,324 6,718 40 37 39 501 240 741

05 4,635 2,464 7,099 40 36 39 576 262 839

06 5,196 2,818 8,014 52 41 48 886 353 1,239

07 5,544 3,029 8,573 56 42 51 1,039 399 1,437

08 5,945 3,276 9,221 62 44 56 1,231 456 1,686

09 6,346 3,523 9,869 68 46 60 1,423 513 1,935

10 6,747 3,770 10,517 74 48 65 1,615 570 2,184

11 7,148 4,017 11,165 80 50 69 1,807 626 2,433

Av/Yr 401 247 648 6 2 5 192 57 249
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Total

FY Totals

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M

F Total M F Total M F Total

04 24,336 12,805 37,141 47 44 46 3,057 1,477 4,534

05 24,334 13,066 37,400 46 42 44 3,252 1,604 4,856

06 28,684 14,551 43,235 52 47 51 4,743 2,138 6,881

07 30,133 15,220 45,353 54 47 52 5,370 2,400 7,770

08 32,307 16,093 48,400 57 49 54 6,213 2,730 8,943

09 34,481 16,966 51,447 60 50 57 7,056 3,060 10,116

10 36,655 17,839 54,494 63 52 59 7,899 3,391 11,289

11 38,829 18,712 57,541 66 53 61 8,742 3,721 12,462

Av/Yr 2,174 873 3,047 3 1 2 843 330 1,173
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Office of Technology and Information Services

91

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Legal Status: Probation

Region 1

Region 2

FY Totals

FY Totals

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M

F Total M F Total M

F Total

04 1,518 657 2,175 231 209 225 910 368 1,278

05 1,542 642 2,184 213 211 212 896 365 1,261

06 1,382 525 1,907 216 229 219 843 325 1,168

07 1,345 476 1,821 204 235 213 815 310 1,126

08 1,277 410 1,687 197 245 210 782 289 1,071

09 1,209 344 1,553 189 254 207 748 268 1,016

10 1,141 278 1,419 181 264 204 714 247 961

11 1,073 212 1,285 174 273 201 680 226 906

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M

F Total M F Total M

F Total

04 2,345 1,042 3,387 215 219 216 1,368 608 1,976

05 2,266 909 3,175 217 223 219 1,328 569 1,897

06 1,898 664 2,562 218 243 225 1,142 460 1,601

07 1,723 494 2,216 220 252 228 1,053 397 1,450

08 1,499 305 1,804 222 264 232 940 323 1,263

09 1,276 116 1,391 223 276 237 826 249 1,076

10 1,052 -73 979 225 288 241 713 175 888

11 829 -262 566 227 300 245 600 101 701

Av/Yr -68 -66 -134 -8 10 -3 -34 -21 -55
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Av/Yr -224 -189 -413 2 12 4 -113 -74 -187
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Region 3

Region 4

FY Totals

FY Totals

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M

F Total M F Total M F Total

04 1,487 611 2,098 184 170 180 743 288 1,030

05 1,395 616 2,011 188 178 185 715 302 1,018

06 1,151 536 1,687 196 202 198 617 298 915

07 1,008 513 1,521 200 216 205 566 307 873

08 840 475 1,316 206 232 214 503 312 816

09 672 438 1,110 211 248 222 441 318 758

10 504 400 905 217 264 231 378 323 701

11 336 363 699 222 280 240 315 328 643

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M

F Total M F Total M

F Total

04 2,113 837 2,950 190 186 189 1,082 425 1,506

05 2,194 815 3,009 183 179 182 1,080 414 1,494

06 1,825 715 2,540 178 189 181 902 362 1,264

07 1,756 667 2,423 172 188 177 841 338 1,180

08 1,612 606 2,218 167 189 173 751 307 1,059

09 1,468 545 2,013 161 191 169 661 276 938

10 1,324 484 1,808 155 192 166 572 245 817

11 1,180 423 1,603 150 194 162 482 214 696

Av/Yr -168 -38 -206 6 16 9 -63 5 -57
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Av/Yr -144 -61 -205 -6 1 -4 -90 -31 -121
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Region 5

Total

FY Totals

FY Totals

FY

ADMs

M

F Total

04 1,941 693 2,634

05 1,886 782 2,668

06 1,357 567 1,924

07 1,144 555 1,699

08 852 492 1,344

09 560 429 989

10 268 366 634

11 -24 303 279

Av/Yr -292 -63 -355

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

ALOS
M F Total M 214 221 216 1,132 207 178 199 1,080 227 216 224 864 229 200 221 757 236 197 225 623 242 194 229 489 249 192 233 355 255 189 237 221
7 -3 4 -134

ADP
F 403 387 341 315 284 253 222 191
-31

Total 1,535 1,466 1,205 1,072 907 742 577 412
-165

FY

ADMs

M

F Total

04 9,405 3,840 13,245

05 9,283 3,764 13,047

06 7,613 3,007 10,620

07 6,975 2,704 9,679

08 6,079 2,288 8,367

09 5,183 1,871 7,054

10 4,287 1,455 5,742

11 3,391 1,038 4,429

Av/Yr -896 -417 -1,313

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

ALOS

ADP

M F Total M F 207 203 206 5,236 2,090 202 195 200 5,100 2,036 206 215 209 4,367 1,787 205 217 208 4,033 1,667 204 223 210 3,599 1,516 204 230 211 3,165 1,364 204 236 213 2,730 1,212 204 242 214 2,296 1,060

0 6 2 -434 -152

Total 7,326 7,136 6,154 5,700 5,114 4,528 3,942 3,356
-586

Office of Technology and Information Services

92

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Region 1
FY Totals

Legal Status: Total Commitments

Region 2
FY Totals

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M

F Total M F Total M F Total

04 423 116 539 431 371 417 463 130 593

05 401 106 507 405 389 401 487 120 606

06 463 106 569 375 378 376 456 102 559

07 469 99 568 348 386 356 462 89 552

08 489 94 583 320 390 336 459 75 535

09 509 89 598 292 393 315 456 61 517

10 529 84 613 264 397 294 453 47 500

11 549 79 628 236 400 273 450 33 483

FY

ADMs

ALOS

M

F Total M F Total M

04 286 75 361 461 402 450 403

05 230 89 319 516 438 497 366

06 338 68 406 462 409 451 374

07 337 70 407 481 424 467 353

08 363 67 430 481 427 468 338

09 389 63 452 481 431 469 324

10 415 60 475 482 434 470 310

11 441 56 497 482 438 470 296

Av/Yr 20 -5 15 -28 3 -21 -3 -14 -17
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Av/Yr 26 -4 23 0 4 1 -14
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Region 3
FY Totals

Region 4
FY Totals

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M

F Total M F Total M F Total

04 819 259 1,078 496 423 480 1,082 286 1,368

05 817 260 1,077 465 428 456 1,130 311 1,441

06 914 264 1,178 473 424 462 1,166 313 1,479

07 945 266 1,211 455 426 448 1,210 330 1,541

08 993 269 1,261 443 426 439 1,252 344 1,596

09 1,040 271 1,311 432 427 430 1,294 358 1,652

10 1,088 274 1,361 420 427 421 1,337 371 1,708

11 1,135 276 1,411 409 428 412 1,379 385 1,763

FY

ADMs

ALOS

M

F Total M F Total M

04 376 81 457 493 424 478 488

05 333 86 419 497 354 474 508

06 404 103 507 481 455 476 515

07 399 112 511 478 442 474 530

08 413 123 536 472 457 473 544

09 427 134 561 466 472 471 557

10 441 145 586 460 488 470 570

11 455 156 611 454 503 469 584

Av/Yr 48

3

50 -12 0 -9 42 14 56

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Av/Yr 14 11 25 -6 15 -1 13
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Region 5
FY Totals

Total
FY Totals

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M

F Total M F Total M

F Total

04 483 114 597 538 472 526 712 144 855

05 447 107 554 524 490 517 742 146 888

06 487 114 601 586 451 563 776 154 930

07 476 112 588 597 450 572 807 158 965

08 478 112 590 621 440 591 839 163 1,002

09 480 112 592 645 429 609 871 168 1,039

10 482 112 594 669 418 628 904 173 1,077

11 484 112 596 693 408 646 936 178 1,114

FY

ADMs

ALOS

M

F Total M F Total M

04 2,387 645 3,032 489 419 474 3,147

05 2,228 648 2,876 476 424 464 3,232

06 2,606 655 3,261 476 421 465 3,288

07 2,626 659 3,285 467 424 458 3,363

08 2,736 664 3,400 461 425 454 3,433

09 2,845 669 3,514 454 425 449 3,504

10 2,955 674 3,629 448 426 444 3,574

11 3,064 679 3,743 441 427 439 3,644

Av/Yr 2

0

2 24 -11 19 32 5

37

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Av/Yr 110 5 115 -7 1 -5 70
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

ADP
F 94 95 89 88 85 82 80 77
-3

Total 497 461 463 440 423 407 390 373
-17

ADP
F 90 95 112 121 133 144 155 166
11

Total 578 603 627 652 676 701 725 750
25

ADP
F 744 767 770 787 800 813 826 839
13

Total 3,891 3,999 4,058 4,150 4,233 4,316 4,400 4,483
83

Office of Technology and Information Services

93

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Region 1
FY Totals

Legal Status: Regular Commitments

Region 2
FY Totals

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M

F Total M F Total M F Total

04 394 116 510 360 340 355 357 122 479

05 364 106 470 355 373 359 387 116 503

06 423 102 525 346 365 350 347 97 444

07 423 94 517 339 385 349 353 87 440

08 437 87 524 332 398 346 348 75 423

09 452 80 532 324 410 344 343 63 406

10 466 73 539 317 423 341 338 50 388

11 481 66 547 310 436 338 333 38 371

FY

ADMs

ALOS

M

F Total M F Total M

04 236 73 309 376 374 376 275

05 189 87 276 409 376 401 236

06 275 65 340 389 399 391 233

07 272 67 339 405 407 405 206

08 292 63 355 411 420 413 185

09 311 59 370 417 432 420 164

10 331 55 386 424 444 428 143

11 350 51 401 430 457 436 123

Av/Yr 15 -7

8 -7 13 -3 -5 -12 -17

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Av/Yr 20 -4 16 6 12 8 -21
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Region 3
FY Totals

Region 4
FY Totals

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M

F Total M F Total M F Total

04 682 252 934 418 394 413 786 268 1,054

05 679 251 930 415 422 417 796 294 1,090

06 752 257 1,009 410 424 414 772 287 1,059

07 774 258 1,033 406 443 415 771 302 1,073

08 809 261 1,070 402 458 416 764 311 1,076

09 844 263 1,108 398 473 416 757 321 1,078

10 879 266 1,145 394 488 417 751 331 1,081

11 914 268 1,183 390 503 417 744 340 1,084

FY

ADMs

ALOS

M

F Total M F Total M

04 279 76 355 385 395 388 267

05 238 73 311 371 288 355 267

06 271 90 361 360 374 363 242

07 255 94 348 346 331 343 233

08 251 101 351 334 320 331 221

09 247 108 354 321 309 318 208

10 243 115 357 308 298 306 196

11 239 122 360 295 288 293 183

Av/Yr 35

3

38 -4 15 0 -7 10

3

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Av/Yr -4

7

3 -13 -11 -12 -13

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Region 5
FY Totals

Total
FY Totals

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M

F Total M F Total M F Total

04 374 99 473 462 455 461 451 112 563

05 345 87 432 443 419 437 435 106 541

06 378 98 476 454 421 448 431 104 536

07 370 94 463 445 398 437 420 100 519

08 372 93 465 442 382 431 410 96 506

09 374 93 466 438 365 424 400 92 492

10 376 92 468 434 348 418 390 88 479

11 378 92 469 430 332 412 381 84 465

FY

ADMs

ALOS

M

F Total M F Total M

04 1,965 616 2,581 407 392 403 2,136

05 1,815 604 2,419 401 393 399 2,122

06 2,099 612 2,711 395 402 397 2,025

07 2,094 607 2,700 390 405 393 1,984

08 2,161 605 2,765 384 410 390 1,928

09 2,228 603 2,830 378 415 386 1,873

10 2,295 601 2,895 372 419 383 1,818

11 2,362 599 2,960 367 424 380 1,763

Av/Yr 2

-1

2 -4 -17 -6 -10 -4 -14

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Av/Yr 67 -2 65 -6 5 -3 -55
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

ADP F 79 86 82 85 87 88 90 91 1
ADP F 67 68 80 86 92 99 106 113 7
ADP F 647 670 651 659 661 663 665 667 2

Total 353 322 315 291 272 252 233 214 -19
Total 333 336 322 319 313 308 302 296 -6
Total 2,783 2,792 2,676 2,643 2,590 2,536 2,483 2,429
-53

Office of Technology and Information Services

94

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

FY

ADMs

M

F Total

04

24

0

24

05

33

0

33

06

32

4

36

07

38

5

43

08

42

7

49

09

46

9

55

10

50 11

61

11

54 13

67

Av/Yr 4

2

6

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

FY

ADMs

M

F Total

04 112 7 119

05 107 9 116

06 151 6 157

07 162 6 169

08 182 6 188

09 201 5 207

10 221 5 226

11 240 4 245

Av/Yr 20 -1 19

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

FY

ADMs

M

F Total

04 100 15 115

05

95 18 113

06 102 15 117

07 101 16 117

08 102 16 118

09 103 16 119

10 104 16 120

11 105 16 121

Av/Yr 1

0

1

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Region 1
FY Totals ALOS
M F Total 1,270 1,064 1,239 1,093 1,106 1,095 1,104 1,827 1,142 990 2,096 1,062 908 2,477 1,013 825 2,859 964 742 3,241 916 659 3,623 867
-83 382 -49
Region 3
FY Totals ALOS
M F Total 1,114 1,385 1,131 1,166 842 1,144 1,181 0 1,181 1,221 -643 1,202 1,254 -1,336 1,227 1,288 -2,028 1,252 1,321 -2,721 1,277 1,355 -3,414 1,302
33 -693 25
Region 5
FY Totals ALOS
M F Total 1,127 817 1,100 1,011 1,264 1,043 1,204 923 1,181 1,192 1,108 1,189 1,231 1,161 1,229 1,269 1,214 1,270 1,308 1,267 1,310 1,347 1,320 1,351
39 53 40

Legal Status: Designated Felons

ADP

M F Total 99 8 107

95 4

99

104 5 109 104 2 107

107 1 108

110 -1 109 112 -3 109

115 -5 110

3 -2

1

FY

ADMs

M

F Total

04

45

2

47

05

37

2

39

06

59

3

62

07

61

3

64

08

68

4

72

09

75

4

79

10

82

5

87

11

89

5

94

Av/Yr 7

1

8

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

ADP

M F Total 273 18 291

307 17 325

372 26 398 417 29 446

467 33 500

517 37 554

566 41 607 616 45 661

50 4

54

FY

ADMs

M

F Total

04

87

5

92

05

88 12 100

06 129 13 142

07 143 18 161

08 164 22 186

09 185 26 211

10 206 30 236

11 227 34 261

Av/Yr 21

4

25

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

ADP

M F Total 254 32 286

300 40 340

333 48 382

375 57 431 414 65 479

453 74 527

493 82 575

532 91 623

39 8

48

FY

ADMs

M

F Total

04 368 29 397

05 360 41 401

06 473 41 514

07 505 49 554

08 558 55 613

09 610 61 671

10 663 67 730

11 715 73 788

Av/Yr 53

6

59

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Region 2

FY Totals

ALOS

M

F Total

1,089 751 1,046

1,138 1,152 1,140

1,037 1,097 1,039 1,037 1,346 1,069

1,011 1,519 1,065

985 1,692 1,062 959 1,865 1,059

933 2,038 1,056

-26 173 -3

Region 4

FY Totals

ALOS

M

F Total

1,122 991 1,110

1,038 1,391 1,058

900 1,086 920 798 1,251 839

687 1,299 744

576 1,346 649

465 1,394 554 354 1,441 459

-111 48 -95

Total

FY Totals

ALOS

M

F Total

1,132 1,017 1,122

1,083 1,173 1,092

1,086 1,065 1,085

1,054 1,133 1,062 1,031 1,157 1,044

1,007 1,181 1,025

984 1,205 1,006

961 1,230 988

-23 24 -19

M 122 124 138 144 152 159 167 175
8
M 209 233 268 296 326 355 385 415 30
M 957 1,060 1,215 1,336 1,465 1,594 1,723 1,853 129

ADP
F 15 9 7 2 -2 -6 -10 -14
-4

Total 138 133 145 146 150 154 157 161
4

ADP
F 23 26 31 35 39 43 47 51
4

Total 231 259 299 331 364 398 432 466
34

ADP
F 96 96 118 125 136 147 157 168
11

Total 1,053 1,156 1,333 1,461 1,601 1,741 1,881 2,021
140

Office of Technology and Information Services

95

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Legal Status: Youth Sentenced by the Superior Court

Region 1

Region 2

FY Totals

FY Totals

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M

F Total M F Total M F Total

04

6

0

6 395 267 380 7

0

7

05

4

0

4 540 0 540 5

0

5

06

9

0

9 236 0 236 6

0

6

07

9

0

9 231 -178 240 5

0

5

08

11

0

11 151 -312 168 4

0

4

09

12

0

12 72 -445 95 4

0

3

10

14

0

14 -8 -579 23 3

0

3

11

15

0

15 -87 -712 -50 2

0

2

FY

ADMs

ALOS

M

F Total M F Total M

04

5

0

5 140 0 140 6

05

4

0

4 625 0 625 5

06

5

0

5 343 0 343 4

07

5

0

5 573 0 573 3

08

5

0

5 674 0 674 2

09

5

0

5 776 0 776 1

10

5

0

5 878 0 878 0

11

5

0

5 980 0 980 -1

Av/Yr 2

0

2 -80 -134 -72 -1 0

-1

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Av/Yr 0

0

0 102 0 102 -1

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Region 3

Region 4

FY Totals

FY Totals

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M

F Total M F Total M F Total

04

25

0

25 302 0 314 23 0

23

05

31

0

31 382 0 382 26 0

26

06

12

0

13 371 0 371 21 0

22

07

10

0

11 421 0 413 22 0

22

08

3

0

5 456 0 442 21 0

21

09

-3

0

-1 491 0 470 20 0

20

10 -10 0

-7 526 0 499 20 0

19

11

-16

0

-13 561 0 528 19

0

18

FY

ADMs

ALOS

M

F Total M F Total M

04

12

0

12 276 169 266 12

05

7

1

8 395 0 395 7

06

6

0

6 302 0 302 5

07

2

0

3 350 -113 357 1

08

-1

0

0 363 -197 376 -3

09

-4

0

-3 376 -282 394 -7

10

-7

0

-6 389 -366 412 -10

11 -10 0

-9 402 -451 431 -14

Av/Yr -7

0

-6 35 0 29 -1 0

-1

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Av/Yr -3

0

-3 13 -85 18 -4

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Region 5
FY Totals

Total
FY Totals

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M

F Total M F Total M F Total

04

10

0

10 275 0 275 6

0

6

05

9

2

11 175 0 175 7

0

7

06

11

1

12 273 157 244 11 1

12

07

11

2

13 239 209 200 13 1

14

08

12

3

14 238 287 185 16 2

17

09

12

3

15 238 366 170 18 2

20

10

13

4

16 237 444 154 21 3

23

11

13

4

17 236 522 139 23 3

26

FY

ADMs

ALOS

M

F Total M F Total M

04

58

0

58 296 348 299 54

05

55

3

58 398 0 398 51

06

43

2

45 326 157 316 47

07

37

4

41 370 -23 355 43

08

30

5

34 385 -119 364 40

09

22

6

28 400 -215 373 36

10

15

7

21 415 -311 381 33

11

7

8

15 431 -407 390 29

Av/Yr 1

1

1

-1 78 -15 2

0

3

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Av/Yr -8

1

-7 15 -96 9 -4

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

ADP
F 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0

Total 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1
-1

ADP
F 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 2
0

Total 13 7 6 2 -1 -5 -8 -12
-3

ADP
F 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4
1

Total 55 51 49 46 43 40 37 33
-3

Office of Technology and Information Services

96

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Region 1
FY Totals

FY

ADMs

ALOS

M

F Total M F Total M

04 695 249 944 115 107 113 196

05 579 202 781 92 94 93 154

06 373 93 466 92 84 90 63

07 227 25 252 76 72 76 5

08

66 -53 13 65 60 64 -62

09 -95 -131 -226 53 49 53 -128

10 -256 -209 -465 41 37 41 -195

11 -417 -287 -704 30 26 30 -261

Av/Yr -161 -78 -239 -12 -12 -11.4 -66
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Region 3

FY Totals

FY

ADMs

ALOS

M

F Total M F Total M

04 1,024 346 1,370 61 72 64 184

05 819 267 1,086 74 81 75 161

06 441 102 543 62 75 65 64

07 178 -6 173 66 80 69 16

08 -113 -128 -241 67 81 69 -44

09 -405 -250 -654 67 83 70 -104

10 -696 -372 -1,068 67 85 70 -164

11 -988 -494 -1,481 68 87 71 -224

Av/Yr -292 -122 -414 0 2 1 -60
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Region 5
FY Totals

FY

ADMs

ALOS

M

F Total M F Total M

04 927 277 1,204 76 72 75 195

05 845 308 1,153 73 65 71 160

06 612 154 766 56 75 61 87

07 480 123 603 48 73 54 39

08 322 62 384 38 75 47 -15

09 165 0 165 28 76 39 -70

10

7 -61 -54 18 78 32 -124

11 -150 -123 -273 8 79 24 -178

Av/Yr -158 -62 -219 -10 1 -7 -54
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Legal Status: STP

Region 2
FY Totals

ADP
F 65 50 14 -8 -34 -59 -85 -110

Total 261 204 77 -3 -95 -187 -279 -372

FY

ADMs

ALOS

M

F Total M F Total M

04 942 348 1,290 74 72 74 194

05 905 327 1,232 65 71 67 165

06 552 147 699 67 76 69 83

07 410 73 483 62 77 65 37

08 215 -28 187 58 79 63 -18

09

20 -128 -108 55 81 61 -73

10 -175 -229 -404 51 83 58 -129

11 -370 -329 -699 47 85 56 -184

-26 -92

Av/Yr -195 -101 -296 -4 2 -2 -55
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Region 4

FY Totals

ADP
F 69 58 20 -1 -26 -51 -75 -100

Total 253 219 83 15 -70 -155 -239 -324

FY

ADMs

ALOS

M

F Total M F Total M

04 1,058 369 1,427 63 54 60 185

05 1,114 436 1,550 57 58 57 182

06 1,011 221 1,232 51 53 51 118

07 1,014 194 1,208 45 54 47 94

08 991 120 1,111 39 54 42 61

09 967 46 1,013 33 54 38 27

10 944 -28 916 27 53 33 -6

11 920 -102 818 21 53 28 -40

-25 -85

Av/Yr -24 -74 -98
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

-6 -0.4 -4.65 -34

Total
FY Totals

ADP
F 52 62 27 23 10 -2 -14 -26

Total 247 222 114 61 -5 -71 -138 -204

FY

ADMs

ALOS

M

F Total M F Total M

04 4,647 1,589 6,236 76 73 75 954

05 4,262 1,540 5,802 70 72 71 822

06 2,989 717 3,706 62 70 64 414

07 2,308 410 2,718 56 68 58 191

08 1,479 -26 1,453 49 66 53 -79

09 650 -462 188 42 64 47 -348

10 -179 -898 -1,077 35 63 41 -618

11 -1,008 -1,334 -2,342 29 61 36 -888

-12 -66

Av/Yr -829 -436 -1,265 -7 -2 -6 -270
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

ADP
F 67 64 25 9 -12 -34 -55 -77
-21

Total 261 229 108 46 -31 -107 -184 -261
-77

ADP
F 59 63 31 23 9 -5 -19 -33
-14

Total 244 245 149 117 70 22 -25 -73
-48

ADP

F 312 296 116 46 -52 -150 -248 -346

Total 1,266 1,118 531 236 -131 -499 -866 -1,234

-98 -368

Office of Technology and Information Services

97

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Placements: Community, Pre-Adjudication

Region 1

Region 2

FY Totals

FY Totals

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M

F Total M F Total M F Total

04 2,830 1,593 4,423 83 77 81 601 294 895

05 3,076 1,641 4,717 78 72 76 682 330 1,012

06 3,328 1,693 5,021 93 80 89 828 383 1,212

07 3,576 1,742 5,318 95 79 90 931 425 1,356

08 3,825 1,792 5,617 100 80 93 1,044 470 1,514

09 4,074 1,842 5,916 105 81 97 1,158 514 1,672

10 4,323 1,892 6,215 110 83 101 1,272 559 1,831

11 4,572 1,942 6,514 116 84 105 1,385 604 1,989

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M

F Total M F Total M F Total

04 5,010 2,761 7,771 58 53 56 788 382 1,169

05 4,610 2,551 7,161 62 54 59 806 411 1,218

06 6,040 3,076 9,116 61 57 60 1,131 526 1,656

07 6,250 3,111 9,361 64 59 62 1,251 584 1,835

08 6,765 3,269 10,034 65 61 64 1,423 656 2,078

09 7,280 3,426 10,706 67 63 66 1,594 728 2,322

10 7,795 3,584 11,379 69 66 68 1,766 800 2,565

11 8,310 3,741 12,051 70 68 70 1,937 872 2,809

Av/Yr 249 50 299 5 1 4 114 45 158
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Av/Yr 515 158 673 2 2 2 172 72 244
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Region 3

Region 4

FY Totals

FY Totals

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M

F Total M F Total M F Total

04 2,329 1,118 3,447 63 67 64 380 208 588

05 1,853 990 2,843 67 67 67 366 190 556

06 2,700 1,417 4,117 74 66 71 615 288 903

07 2,665 1,474 4,139 78 65 74 689 308 997

08 2,851 1,624 4,474 84 64 77 806 348 1,155

09 3,036 1,773 4,809 89 63 80 924 388 1,312

10 3,222 1,923 5,144 94 63 84 1,042 428 1,469

11 3,407 2,072 5,479 100 62 87 1,159 468 1,627

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M

F Total M F Total M F Total

04 4,146 2,225 6,371 40 36 38 467 230 696

05 4,387 2,338 6,725 39 36 38 533 250 782

06 4,947 2,674 7,621 52 42 49 809 332 1,141

07 5,294 2,861 8,156 56 44 52 946 373 1,318

08 5,695 3,086 8,781 63 47 57 1,117 424 1,541

09 6,095 3,310 9,406 69 50 62 1,289 475 1,763

10 6,496 3,535 10,031 75 52 67 1,460 526 1,986

11 6,896 3,759 10,656 82 55 72 1,631 577 2,208

Av/Yr 186 150 335 5 -1 3 118 40 157
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Av/Yr 401 225 625 6 3 5 171 51 223
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Region 5

Total

FY Totals

FY Totals

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M

F Total M F Total M F Total

04 5,054 3,009 8,063 42 37 40 581 296 877

05 5,245 3,147 8,392 40 36 38 588 319 906

06 5,553 3,391 8,944 48 40 45 881 451 1,332

07 5,783 3,564 9,347 50 41 46 983 510 1,493

08 6,033 3,755 9,788 53 43 49 1,133 587 1,721

09 6,282 3,946 10,228 56 45 51 1,283 665 1,948

10 6,532 4,137 10,669 59 46 54 1,434 742 2,176

11 6,781 4,328 11,109 62 48 56 1,584 820 2,403

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M

F Total M F Total M F Total

04 19,369 10,706 30,075 54 50 53 2,816 1,409 4,225

05 19,171 10,667 29,838 54 49 52 2,975 1,499 4,474

06 22,568 12,251 34,819 62 53 59 4,264 1,980 6,244

07 23,568 12,753 36,321 65 54 61 4,800 2,200 7,000

08 25,168 13,526 38,693 69 55 64 5,524 2,485 8,009

09 26,767 14,298 41,065 73 57 67 6,248 2,770 9,018

10 28,367 15,071 43,437 77 58 70 6,972 3,055 10,027

11 29,966 15,843 45,809 81 60 74 7,697 3,340 11,036

Av/Yr 250 191 441 3 2 2 150 77 228
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Av/Yr 1,600 773 2,372 4 2 3 724 285 1,009
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Office of Technology and Information Services

98

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Region 1
FY Totals

Placements: RYDC, Pre-Adjudication

Region 2
FY Totals

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M

F Total M F Total M F Total

04 797 357 1,154 11 6 10 24 6

30

05 848 442 1,290 10 7 9 26 9

35

06 971 447 1,418 11 6 10 30 8

39

07 1,046 505 1,551 11 7 10 33 10 43

08 1,133 550 1,683 11 8 10 36 11 48

09 1,220 595 1,815 11 8 10 40 13 52

10 1,307 640 1,947 11 8 10 43 14 57

11 1,394 685 2,079 11 9 10 46 15 61

FY

ADMs

ALOS

M

F Total M F Total M

04 807 332 1,139 8 6 8 19

05 909 378 1,287 10 7 9 25

06 1,174 407 1,581 12 9 12 44

07 1,330 447 1,778 14 10 13 55

08 1,514 485 1,999 16 12 15 68

09 1,697 522 2,220 19 13 17 80

10 1,881 560 2,441 21 15 19 93

11 2,064 597 2,662 23 16 21 106

Av/Yr 87 45 132 0 0 0 3

1

5

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Av/Yr 184 38 221 2 1 2 13
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Region 3

Region 4

FY Totals

FY Totals

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M

F Total M F Total M F Total

04 3,440 1,402 4,842 9 5 8 87 20 107

05 3,632 1,609 5,241 10 5 8 96 24 120

06 4,747 1,810 6,557 12 8 11 177 42 219

07 5,247 2,015 7,262 14 9 12 210 51 261

08 5,900 2,219 8,119 15 10 14 256 62 318

09 6,554 2,423 8,977 17 12 16 301 73 374

10 7,207 2,627 9,834 19 13 17 346 85 431

11 7,861 2,831 10,692 21 14 19 392 96 487

FY

ADMs

ALOS

M

F Total M F Total M

04 640 217 857 15 10 14 28

05 664 266 930 17 12 16 32

06 1,102 350 1,452 17 11 16 55

07 1,264 411 1,675 19 12 17 66

08 1,495 477 1,972 20 13 18 80

09 1,726 544 2,270 21 13 19 93

10 1,957 610 2,567 22 14 20 107

11 2,188 677 2,865 23 14 21 121

Av/Yr 654 204 858 2 1 2 45 11 56
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Av/Yr 231 67 298 1 0 1 14
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Region 5
FY Totals

Total
FY Totals

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M

F Total M F Total M F Total

04 989 419 1,408 12 7 11 33 8

41

05 1,110 455 1,565 13 9 12 39 12 50

06 1,536 529 2,065 14 10 13 62 15 77

07 1,759 578 2,336 15 12 14 74 18 92

08 2,032 633 2,665 16 13 15 88 22 110

09 2,306 688 2,993 17 15 17 103 25 128

10 2,579 743 3,322 18 17 18 117 29 146

11 2,853 798 3,650 19 18 19 132 32 164

FY

ADMs

ALOS

M

F Total M F Total M

04 6,673 2,727 9,400 10 6 9 191

05 7,163 3,150 10,313 11 7 10 218

06 9,530 3,543 13,073 13 9 12 370

07 10,646 3,956 14,602 14 10 13 438

08 12,074 4,364 16,438 16 11 14 528

09 13,503 4,772 18,275 17 12 16 617

10 14,931 5,180 20,111 19 13 17 707

11 16,360 5,588 21,948 20 14 19 796

Av/Yr 274 55 329 1 2 1 15 3

18

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Av/Yr 1,429 408 1,837 1 1 1 89
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

ADP
F 6 8 9 11 13 15 16 18
2

Total 25 33 54 66 81 95 109 124
14

ADP
F 6 9 11 14 16 19 21 24
2

Total 34 41 67 80 96 112 128 145
16

ADP
F 46 61 86 105 125 145 165 185
20

Total 237 279 456 543 652 762 871 981
110

Office of Technology and Information Services

99

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Region 1
FY Totals

Placements: RYDC, Awaiting YDC

Region 2
FY Totals

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M

F Total M F Total M F Total

04 473 155 628 28 20 26 37 9

45

05 511 135 646 26 22 25 37 8

45

06 552 145 697 26 18 24 38 8

45

07 591 135 726 25 17 23 38 7

45

08 631 130 761 24 16 22 38 6

45

09 670 125 795 22 15 21 39 6

45

10 710 120 830 21 13 20 39 5

44

11 749 115 864 20 12 19 40 5

44

FY

ADMs

ALOS

M

F Total M F Total M

04 382 101 483 32 23 30 36

05 333 97 430 43 22 39 32

06 437 115 552 26 24 25 31

07 439 118 557 27 24 27 28

08 467 125 592 24 24 24 25

09 494 132 626 21 25 22 23

10 522 139 661 18 25 20 20

11 549 146 695 15 26 17 17

Av/Yr 40 -5 35 -1 -1 -1 0 -1

0

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Av/Yr 28

7

35 -3 0 -2 -3

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Region 3

Region 4

FY Totals

FY Totals

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M

F Total M F Total M F Total

04 1,207 403 1,610 31 21 28 104 23 127

05 1,278 463 1,741 38 21 34 125 26 151

06 1,465 492 1,957 28 21 26 111 28 140

07 1,575 542 2,116 29 21 27 121 31 152

08 1,704 586 2,290 27 22 26 124 34 159

09 1,833 631 2,463 26 22 25 128 37 165

10 1,962 675 2,637 24 22 24 132 40 171

11 2,091 720 2,810 23 23 23 135 42 178

FY

ADMs

ALOS

M

F Total M F Total M

04 489 100 589 34 22 32 48

05 468 111 579 46 25 42 57

06 499 137 636 33 26 31 44

07 495 153 648 36 28 34 46

08 500 172 672 36 30 34 44

09 505 190 695 35 32 34 42

10 510 209 719 34 34 33 40

11 515 227 742 34 36 33 38

Av/Yr 129 45 174 -2 0 -1 4

3

6

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Av/Yr 5

19 24 -1 2 0 -2

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Region 5
FY Totals

Total
FY Totals

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M

F Total M F Total M F Total

04 767 204 971 30 17 27 64 10 74

05 729 173 902 34 26 32 66 13 79

06 774 204 978 30 27 29 61 14 76

07 764 194 957 31 33 32 60 17 78

08 767 194 961 31 38 33 59 19 78

09 771 194 964 31 42 34 57 22 79

10 774 194 968 31 47 35 56 24 80

11 778 194 971 31 52 36 54 26 80

FY

ADMs

ALOS

M

F Total M F Total M

04 3,318 963 4,281 31 20 28 289

05 3,319 979 4,298 37 23 34 317

06 3,727 1,093 4,820 28 23 27 285

07 3,864 1,142 5,005 30 24 28 293

08 4,068 1,207 5,275 28 25 28 291

09 4,273 1,272 5,544 27 27 27 289

10 4,477 1,337 5,814 26 28 26 286

11 4,682 1,402 6,083 25 29 26 284

Av/Yr 4

0

4

0 5 1 -2

2

1

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Av/Yr 205 65 270 -1 1 -1 -2
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

ADP
F 6 6 7 8 8 9 10 10
1

Total 42 38 38 36 34 32 30 28
-2

ADP
F 6 8 9 11 13 14 16 17
2

Total 54 65 53 56 56 56 55 55
0

ADP
F 53 61 67 74 81 88 94 101
7

Total 342 378 352 367 371 376 381 385
5

Office of Technology and Information Services

100

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Region 1
FY Totals

Placements: RYDC, Awaiting STP

Region 2
FY Totals

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M

F Total M F Total M F Total

04 593 216 809 19 20 19 30 11 41

05 507 165 672 18 18 18 25 8

33

06 194 51 245 17 16 17 9

2

12

07

32 -21 11 17 14 16 1

-2

-1

08 -167 -104 -271 16 12 15 -10 -6 -16

09 -367 -186 -553 15 10 14 -20 -11 -31

10 -566 -269 -835 14 9 13 -30 -15 -45

11 -766 -351 -1,117 14 7 12 -41 -19 -60

FY

ADMs

ALOS

M

F Total M F Total M

04 848 324 1,172 17 16 17 40

05 830 295 1,125 16 16 16 38

06 331 89 420 18 13 17 16

07 153 1 154 18 12 17 7

08 -106 -117 -222 18 11 17 -5

09 -364 -234 -598 19 9 17 -17

10 -623 -352 -974 19 8 17 -28

11 -881 -469 -1,350 20 6 17 -40

Av/Yr -200 -83 -282 -1 -2 -1 -10 -4 -15
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Av/Yr -259 -118 -376 0 -1 0 -12
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Region 3

Region 4

FY Totals

FY Totals

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M

F Total M F Total M F Total

04 809 294 1,103 20 20 20 43 16 59

05 759 243 1,002 22 21 22 46 14 60

06 241 70 311 22 21 22 14 4

18

07

35 -22 13 23 22 23 5

0

4

08 -249 -134 -383 24 23 24 -10 -6 -16

09 -533 -246 -779 25 23 25 -25 -12 -37

10 -817 -358 -1,175 26 24 25 -39 -18 -57

11 -1,101 -470 -1,571 27 24 26 -54 -24 -78

FY

ADMs

ALOS

M

F Total M F Total M

04 863 287 1,150 19 17 19 45

05 946 341 1,287 19 16 18 50

06 596 139 735 17 16 17 27

07 535 108 642 16 16 16 23

08 401 34 435 15 15 15 14

09 268 -40 227 14 15 15 5

10 134 -114 20 13 14 14 -5

11

1 -188 -188 12 14 13 -14

Av/Yr -284 -112 -396 1 1 1 -15 -6 -21
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Av/Yr -134 -74 -208 -1 0 -1 -9
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Region 5
FY Totals

Total
FY Totals

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M

F Total M F Total M F Total

04 714 206 920 17 17 17 36 9

45

05 665 227 892 22 16 20 38 10 48

06 275 84 359 19 20 19 14 4

18

07 112 50 163 21 21 21 7

3

10

08 -107 -11 -118 22 22 22 -4

1

-3

09 -327 -72 -398 23 24 23 -15 -2 -17

10 -546 -133 -679 23 26 24 -26 -4 -30

11 -766 -194 -959 24 27 25 -37 -7 -43

FY

ADMs

ALOS

M

F Total M F Total M

04 3,828 1,327 5,155 18 18 18 194

05 3,707 1,271 4,978 19 17 19 196

06 1,637 433 2,070 18 17 18 80

07 866 116 983 19 17 18 42

08 -229 -331 -560 19 16 18 -15

09 -1,325 -778 -2,102 19 16 18 -72

10 -2,420 -1,225 -3,645 18 16 18 -129

11 -3,516 -1,672 -5,187 18 15 18 -186

Av/Yr -220 -61 -281 1 2 1 -11 -2 -13
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Av/Yr -1,096 -447 -1,543 0 0 0 -57
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

ADP
F 14 13 3 -1 -7 -12 -18 -24
-6

Total 54 50 19 6 -11 -29 -46 -64
-17

ADP
F 14 14 6 4 1 -3 -7 -10
-4

Total 59 64 33 27 14 1 -11 -24
-13

ADP
F 64 60 20 4 -18 -40 -62 -84
-22

Total 258 256 100 47 -32 -111 -190 -269
-79

Office of Technology and Information Services

101

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Placements: YDC Regular Commitments

Region 1

Region 2

FY Totals

FY Totals

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M

F Total M F Total M F Total

04

26

6

32 181 201 185 11 5

16

05

27 12 39 130 101 122 9

3

12

06

30

8

38 156 142 153 13 2

16

07

32 11 42 131 89 121 13 1

14

08

34 12 45 119 59 105 14 -1

13

09

36 13 48 107 30 89 15 -2

13

10

38 14 51 94 0 73 16 -4

13

11

40 15 54 82 -30 57 17 -5

12

FY

ADMs

ALOS

M

F Total M F Total M

04

43 11 54 191 200 193 24

05

32

8

40 195 143 180 13

06

63 18 81 124 134 126 22

07

66 19 85 102 93 100 18

08

76 23 99 69 60 66 18

09

86 26 112 35 28 33 17

10

96 30 126 1 -5 0 16

11 106 33 139 -32 -38 -34 16

Av/Yr 2

1

3 -12 -30 -16.1 1 -1

0

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Av/Yr 10

4

14 -34 -33 -33.3 -1

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Region 3

Region 4

FY Totals

FY Totals

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M

F Total M F Total M F Total

04

61 23 84 196 168 191 36 9

44

05 105 28 133 118 121 119 28 8

37

06 126 21 147 124 133 126 47 9

56

07 162 22 184 74 106 80 48 9

58

08 195 21 216 39 88 47 54 10 64

09 227 20 247 3 71 14 60 10 70

10 260 19 279 -33 53 -18 65 10 76

11 292 18 310 -69 36 -51 71 11 82

FY

ADMs

ALOS

M

F Total M F Total M

04

49

6

55 304 215 295 33

05

61 16 77 194 147 184 25

06

80 19 99 149 165 151 32

07

94 27 121 60 126 67 28

08 110 33 143 -17 101 -5 27

09 125 40 165 -95 76 -76 27

10 141 46 187 -172 51 -148 26

11 156 53 209 -250 26 -219 25

Av/Yr 33 -1

32 -36 -18 -32.8 6

0

6

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Av/Yr 16

7

22 -78 -25 -71.6 -1

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Region 5
FY Totals

Total
FY Totals

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M

F Total M F Total M F Total

04 108 15 123 208 183 205 57 9

66

05 127 18 145 138 212 148 48 8

55

06 144 25 169 179 163 177 57 10 67

07 162 29 192 147 166 149 54 10 64

08 180 34 215 132 155 135 53 11 64

09 198 39 238 118 145 121 53 11 65

10 216 44 261 104 135 107 53 12 65

11 234 49 284 90 125 93 53 13 66

FY

ADMs

ALOS

M

F Total M F Total M

04 287 61 348 214 188 211 161

05 352 82 434 148 150 149 123

06 443 91 534 150 147 150 171

07 517 108 625 106 121 109 162

08 595 123 718 74 101 78 167

09 673 138 811 42 81 47 172

10 751 153 904 10 61 17 177

11 829 168 997 -22 41 -14 182

Av/Yr 18

5

23 -14 -10 -13.9 0

1

1

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Av/Yr 78 15 93 -32 -20 -30.5 5
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

ADP
F 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6
0

Total 29 18 28 24 23 23 22 22
-1

ADP
F 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24
3

Total 36 31 41 40 43 45 47 49
2

ADP
F 31 30 36 38 40 43 46 48
3

Total 192 153 208 200 207 215 223 230
8

Office of Technology and Information Services

102

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Region 1
FY Totals

Placements: YDC Designated Felons

Region 2
FY Totals

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M

F Total M F Total M F Total

04

35

0

35 552 727 574 53 2

56

05

30

0

30 516 510 515 49 0

49

06

45

4

49 493 0 493 56 2

58

07

47

5

52 461 -315 446 56 1

57

08

52

7

59 432 -678 406 57 1

58

09

57

9

66 403 -1041 365 59 0

59

10

62 11 73 373 -1405 325 60 0

60

11

67 13 80 344 -1768 284 62 0

61

FY

ADMs

ALOS

M

F Total M F Total M

04

49

1

50 450 483 454 65

05

47

2

49 491 1260 523 69

06

67

1

68 517 668 525 74

07

72

1

74 553 988 571 78

08

81

1

83 586 1081 607 82

09

90

1

92 619 1173 642 86

10

99

1 101 652 1265 678 91

11 108 1 110 686 1358 713 95

Av/Yr 5

2

7 -29 -363 -40.5 1

0

1

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Av/Yr 9

0

9 33 92 35 4

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Region 3
FY Totals

Region 4
FY Totals

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M

F Total M F Total M F Total

04

93

8 101 435 341 429 126 7 132

05 126 3 129 461 413 459 143 8 151

06 161 11 172 465 491 466 172 12 183

07 195 10 205 483 565 488 193 14 206

08 229 12 241 498 640 506 216 16 232

09 263 13 276 513 715 524 239 19 257

10 297 15 312 528 791 542 262 21 283

11 331 16 347 542 866 561 285 24 308

FY

ADMs

ALOS

M

F Total M F Total M

04

96

5 101 501 751 517 109

05

96 11 107 410 409 410 123

06 138 15 153 530 477 526 146

07 152 20 172 510 272 494 163

08 173 25 198 524 135 498 182

09 194 30 224 539 -2 503 201

10 215 35 250 553 -139 508 219

11 236 40 276 568 -275 512 238

Av/Yr 34

2

36 15 75 18 23 2

25

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Av/Yr 21

5

26 15 -137 5 19

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Region 5
FY Totals

Total
FY Totals

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M

F Total M F Total M F Total

04 107 17 124 522 4 516 169 18 188

05 114 18 132 558 4 536 206 23 228

06 113 22 135 656 5 625 223 27 250

07 117 24 141 712 5 668 253 32 285

08 120 27 147 779 5 722 280 36 316

09 123 29 152 845 6 776 307 41 348

10 126 32 158 912 6 830 334 46 379

11 129 34 163 979 6 885 361 50 411

FY

ADMs

ALOS

M

F Total M F Total M

04 380 31 411 487 539 491 522

05 413 34 447 484 469 483 590

06 524 53 577 541 471 535 671

07 583 61 644 558 425 548 743

08 655 72 727 585 391 570 817

09 727 83 810 612 357 592 891

10 799 94 893 639 323 614 966

11 871 105 976 666 289 636 1,040

Av/Yr 3

3

6 67 0 54 27 5

31

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Av/Yr 72 11 83 27 -34 22 74
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

ADP
F 5 4 3 1 0 -1 -3 -4
-1

Total 71 73 76 79 82 85 88 91
3

ADP
F 9 11 17 20 23 27 30 34
4

Total 118 134 163 183 205 227 250 272
22

ADP
F 42 46 60 68 77 86 95 104
9

Total 564 636 731 810 894 977 1,060 1,144
83

Office of Technology and Information Services

103

DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Placements: YDC Youth Sentenced by the Superior Court

Region 1

Region 2

FY Totals

FY Totals

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M

F Total M F Total M F Total

04

2

0

2 426 199 380 4

0

4

05

4

0

4 667 0 667 4

0

4

06

5

0

5 346 0 346 5

0

5

07

7

0

7 401 -133 431 5

0

5

08

8

0

8 361 -232 414 5

0

5

09

10

0

10 321 -332 397 5

0

5

10

11

0

11 282 -431 380 5

0

5

11

13

0

13 242 -531 363 6

0

5

FY

ADMs

ALOS

M

F Total M F Total M

04

3

0

3 416 0 416 4

05

3

0

3 447 0 447 4

06

4

0

4 373 0 373 3

07

4

0

4 369 0 369 2

08

5

0

5 347 0 347 2

09

5

0

5 326 0 326 1

10

6

0

6 304 0 304 1

11

6

0

6 283 0 283 0

Av/Yr 2

0

2 -40 -100 -16.9 0

0

0

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Av/Yr 1

0

1 -22 0 -22 -1

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Region 3
FY Totals

Region 4
FY Totals

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M

F Total M F Total M F Total

04

12

0

12 342 498 354 12 0

13

05

20

0

20 408 0 408 16 0

16

06

15

1

16 296 0 296 17 0

17

07

19

1

20 303 -332 296 20 0

20

08

20

2

22 280 -581 267 23 0

23

09

22

2

24 257 -830 238 25 0

25

10

23

3

26 234 -1079 210 28 0

28

11

25

3

28 211 -1328 181 30 0

30

FY

ADMs

ALOS

M

F Total M F Total M

04

10

0

10 376 0 376 9

05

4

0

4 364 0 364 6

06

6

1

7 242 0 242 3

07

3

1

4 193 0 193 0

08

1

2

3 126 0 126 -3

09

-1

2

1 58 0 58 -6

10

-3

3

-1 -9 0 -9 -9

11

-5

3

-2 -76 0 -76 -12

Av/Yr 2

1

2 -23 -249 -29 2

0

2

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Av/Yr -2

1

-2 -67 0 -67 -3

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Region 5
FY Totals

Total
FY Totals

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M

F Total M F Total M F Total

04

6

0

6 157 0 157 3

0

3

05

5

1

6 353 0 353 4

0

4

06

11

1

12 201 73 173 8

0

8

07

12

2

14 282 97 243 10 0

11

08

15

2

17 304 133 251 13 1

13

09

17

3

20 326 169 259 15 1

16

10

20

3

23 348 205 267 18 1

19

11

22

4

26 370 242 275 20 1

21

FY

ADMs

ALOS

M

F Total M F Total M

04

33

0

33 351 349 351 33

05

36

1

37 415 0 415 34

06

41

3

44 284 73 273 36

07

45

4

49 283 -136 268 38

08

49

6

55 249 -274 229 39

09

53

7

60 216 -412 189 41

10

57

9

66 182 -550 150 42

11

61 10 71 149 -688 111 44

Av/Yr 3

1

3 22 36 8 2

0

3

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Av/Yr 4

2

6 -34 -138 -39 2

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

ADP
F 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0

Total 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 0
-1

ADP
F 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0

Total 9 6 4 0 -3 -5 -8 -11
-3

ADP
F 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 2
0

Total 33 34 37 38 40 42 44 46
2

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DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Region 1
FY Totals

FY

ADMs

ALOS

M

F Total M F Total M

04 400 154 554 63 65 64 69

05 239 124 363 55 53 55 38

06 223 44 267 40 37 39 23

07 110 -3 108 30 24 28 -3

08

22 -58 -36 18 10 16 -25

09 -67 -113 -179 7 -4 4 -48

10 -155 -168 -323 -5 -18 -8 -71

11 -244 -223 -466 -17 -32 -20 -94

Av/Yr -89 -55 -144 -12 -14 -12.1 -23
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Region 3
FY Totals

FY

ADMs

ALOS

M

F Total M F Total M

04 594 209 803 56 54 55 92

05 394 156 550 52 51 52 58

06 296 60 356 41 46 42 32

07 130 -7 123 35 43 36 1

08 -19 -82 -101 27 39 30 -29

09 -168 -156 -324 20 35 23 -58

10 -317 -231 -548 12 32 16 -88

11 -466 -305 -771 5 28 10 -118

Av/Yr -149 -75 -224 -7 -4 -7 -30
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Region 5
FY Totals

FY

ADMs

ALOS

M

F Total M F Total M

04 585 191 776 63 63 63 100

05 472 228 700 60 64 61 78

06 457 110 567 45 53 47 54

07 377 95 472 39 50 41 32

08 313 55 368 30 45 34 9

09 249 14 263 22 40 26 -14

10 185 -26 159 13 34 18 -36

11 121 -67 54 4 29 10 -59

Av/Yr -64 -41 -105 -9 -5 -8 -23
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Placements: YDC STP

Region 2
FY Totals

ADP
F 26 19 5 -5 -16 -27 -38 -49

Total 95 57 28 -8 -41 -75 -109 -143

FY

ADMs

ALOS

M

F Total M F Total M

04 437 179 616 63 60 62 77

05 332 171 503 53 52 53 49

06 329 63 392 41 44 42 36

07 258 22 280 31 37 32 12

08 204 -36 168 20 29 22 -9

09 150 -94 56 9 21 12 -29

10

96 -152 -56 -2 13 1 -50

11

42 -210 -168 -13 5 -9 -71

-11 -34

Av/Yr -54 -58 -112 -11 -8 -10 -21
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Region 4
FY Totals

ADP
F 31 22 8 -2 -14 -25 -36 -48

Total 123 80 41 -1 -42 -83 -125 -166

FY

ADMs

ALOS

M

F Total M F Total M

04 586 217 803 57 51 56 92

05 516 223 739 49 48 49 68

06 634 127 761 39 41 39 66

07 627 99 726 29 36 31 49

08 651 54 705 20 31 23 36

09 675 9 684 11 26 14 22

10 699 -36 663 1 21 6

9

11 723 -81 642 -8 15 -2 -4

-11 -41

Av/Yr 24 -45 -21 -9 -5 -8 -13
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Total
FY Totals

ADP
F 32 40 17 15 7 0 -8 -16

Total 132 119 71 47 16 -14 -44 -75

FY

ADMs

ALOS

M

F Total M F Total M

04 2,603 950 3,553 60 58 59 430

05 1,953 902 2,855 54 54 54 291

06 1,939 404 2,343 41 45 42 211

07 1,501 206 1,707 33 40 34 92

08 1,169 -67 1,102 23 33 26 -18

09 837 -340 497 14 27 17 -127

10 505 -613 -108 5 20 8 -237

11 173 -886 -713 -5 14 -1 -346

-8 -30

Av/Yr -332 -273 -605 -9 -6 -9 -110
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

ADP
F 30 24 8 -2 -13 -24 -35 -46
-11

Total 107 73 44 11 -21 -53 -85 -117
-32

ADP
F 29 27 16 11 4 -2 -9 -16
-7

Total 121 96 82 60 40 20
0 -20
-20

ADP
F 149 132 54 17 -31 -78 -126 -174
-48

Total 579 424 265 108 -49 -206 -363 -520
-157

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Region 1
FY Totals

Placements: Home Commitments

Region 2
FY Totals

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M

F Total M F Total M F Total

04 600 200 800 156 137 151 254 80 333

05 658 194 852 151 147 150 277 76 353

06 625 146 771 149 160 151 259 68 328

07 653 126 779 145 172 151 269 63 332

08 665 99 764 142 183 151 272 58 329

09 678 72 750 138 195 152 274 52 326

10 690 45 735 135 207 152 277 46 323

11 703 18 721 132 219 152 280 41 321

FY

ADMs

ALOS

M

F Total M F Total M

04 426 130 556 149 127 144 184

05 410 130 540 155 149 154 168

06 441 123 564 129 118 127 171

07 441 121 561 124 123 124 161

08 448 117 565 114 119 116 155

09 456 114 569 104 115 107 148

10 463 110 573 94 110 99 141

11 471 107 577 84 106 90 135

Av/Yr 13 -27 -15 -3 12 0

3

-6

-3

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Av/Yr 8

-4

4 -10 -4 -9 -7

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Region 3
FY Totals

Region 4
FY Totals

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M

F Total M F Total M F Total

04 1,318 437 1,755 171 130 161 610 163 772

05 1,286 507 1,793 174 144 165 645 195 840

06 1,374 475 1,849 169 139 162 661 192 854

07 1,382 511 1,893 170 147 163 690 213 903

08 1,410 530 1,940 170 151 164 716 228 944

09 1,438 549 1,987 169 155 164 742 243 984

10 1,466 568 2,034 168 160 164 767 257 1,025

11 1,494 587 2,081 168 164 165 793 272 1,065

FY

ADMs

ALOS

M

F Total M F Total M

04 462 110 572 168 169 168 226

05 473 126 599 177 135 169 226

06 448 116 564 164 168 165 238

07 447 123 570 166 157 164 242

08 440 126 566 164 157 163 248

09 433 129 562 161 156 161 254

10 426 132 558 159 156 159 260

11 419 135 554 157 156 158 267

Av/Yr 28 19 47 -1 4 0 26 15 41
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Av/Yr -7

3

-4 -2 0 -2 6

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Region 5
FY Totals

Total
FY Totals

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M

F Total M F Total M F Total

04 625 187 812 192 147 182 306 67 373

05 639 181 820 175 140 167 300 72 372

06 672 178 850 169 143 163 322 77 399

07 692 173 865 155 139 152 326 82 408

08 716 169 884 144 137 143 334 87 421

09 739 164 903 132 135 134 342 92 434

10 763 160 922 120 132 124 350 97 448

11 786 155 941 109 130 115 358 102 461

FY

ADMs

ALOS

M

F Total M F Total M

04 3,431 1,064 4,495 169 139 162 1,579

05 3,466 1,138 4,604 168 144 162 1,616

06 3,560 1,038 4,598 160 144 156 1,652

07 3,615 1,054 4,669 156 148 154 1,688

08 3,679 1,041 4,720 152 150 151 1,724

09 3,744 1,028 4,772 147 153 148 1,760

10 3,808 1,015 4,823 142 156 145 1,797

11 3,873 1,002 4,875 137 158 143 1,833

Av/Yr 24 -5 19 -12 -2 -9 8

5

13

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Av/Yr 65 -13 52 -5 3 -3 36
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

ADP F 50 49 42 39 34 30 26 22 -4
ADP F 54 50 58 58 60 62 63 65 2
ADP F 413 441 437 454 466 478 490 502 12

Total 234 216 213 200 189 178 167 157 -11
Total 280 276 296 300 308 316 324 332
8
Total 1,992 2,057 2,089 2,142 2,191 2,239 2,287 2,335
48

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DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011

Region 1
FY Totals

Placements: Non-Secure Residential

Region 2
FY Totals

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M

F Total M F Total M F Total

04 526 166 692 136 126 133 181 57 238

05 493 160 653 133 142 135 198 68 266

06 333 155 488 185 145 172 157 62 220

07 258 149 407 201 156 186 155 68 223

08 161 144 305 225 166 206 144 70 214

09

65 138 203 250 175 225 132 73 205

10 -32 133 101 275 184 245 120 75 196

11 -128 127 -1 299 194 264 109 78 187

FY

ADMs

ALOS

M

F Total M F Total M

04 460 194 654 126 92 116 157

05 501 186 687 114 122 117 161

06 395 176 571 129 138 132 133

07 387 167 554 127 164 137 126

08 355 158 513 129 187 145 114

09 322 149 471 131 211 153 102

10 290 140 430 133 234 161 90

11 257 131 388 134 257 169 78

Av/Yr -97 -6 -102 25 9 19 -12 3

-9

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Av/Yr -33 -9 -42 2 23 8 -12
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Region 3
FY Totals

Region 4
FY Totals

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M

F Total M F Total M F Total

04 707 348 1,055 138 135 137 259 109 368

05 655 404 1,059 123 91 111 243 113 356

06 689 469 1,158 133 94 117 230 123 353

07 666 528 1,194 127 66 101 216 128 344

08 657 589 1,245 124 45 91 202 135 337

09 648 649 1,297 122 25 81 188 141 329

10 639 710 1,348 119 5 71 174 148 321

11 630 770 1,400 117 -16 61 159 155 314

FY

ADMs

ALOS

M

F Total M F Total M

04 424 114 538 104 129 109 116

05 425 123 548 110 140 116 134

06 256 174 430 131 95 118 95

07 200 197 397 141 87 123 95

08 116 227 343 155 70 127 84

09

32 257 289 168 53 131 74

10 -52 287 235 181 36 135 64

11 -136 317 181 195 18 139 54

Av/Yr -9 61 52 -2 -20 -10 -14 7

-8

Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Av/Yr -84 30 -54 13 -17 4 -10
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Region 5
FY Totals

Total
FY Totals

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M

F Total M F Total M F Total

04 593 180 773 107 145 116 171 57 227

05 494 154 648 119 121 119 170 54 224

06 374 161 535 144 103 131 136 49 185

07 268 146 414 161 81 138 125 45 170

08 159 137 295 180 60 145 108 41 149

09

49 127 176 198 39 153 90 38 128

10 -61 118 57 217 18 161 73 34 107

11 -170 108 -62 236 -3 169 56 30 86

FY

ADMs

ALOS

M

F Total M F Total M

04 2,710 1,002 3,712 124 127 125 883

05 2,568 1,027 3,595 120 115 119 906

06 2,047 1,135 3,182 144 110 132 752

07 1,779 1,188 2,966 149 101 132 717

08 1,447 1,254 2,701 159 93 136 651

09 1,116 1,321 2,436 169 84 139 586

10 784 1,387 2,171 179 76 143 521

11 453 1,454 1,906 189 68 146 456

Av/Yr -110 -10 -119 19 -21 8 -17 -4 -21
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Av/Yr -332 67 -265 10 -8 4 -65
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

ADP
F 52 64 73 84 95 105 116 126
11

Total 209 225 206 210 209 207 206 204
-2

ADP
F 38 45 51 58 65 71 78 85
7

Total 153 180 146 153 149 146 142 138
-4

ADP
F 313 345 358 384 406 429 451 473
22

Total 1,196 1,251 1,111 1,100 1,058 1,015 972 929
-43

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Placements: Probation under Supervision in the Community

Region 1

Region 2

FY Totals

FY Totals

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M

F Total M F Total M F Total

04 1,553 665 2,218 217 203 213 877 354 1,232

05 1,582 622 2,204 198 201 199 852 347 1,199

06 1,370 536 1,906 208 210 209 797 301 1,098

07 1,319 479 1,797 199 211 202 763 280 1,043

08 1,227 414 1,641 194 215 200 723 253 976

09 1,136 350 1,485 190 218 198 683 226 909

10 1,044 285 1,329 185 221 196 643 199 842

11 953 221 1,173 181 225 193 603 172 775

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M

F Total M F Total M F

04 2,440 1,080 3,520 202 205 203 1,339 595

05 2,366 954 3,320 203 207 204 1,294 553

06 2,040 726 2,766 200 216 204 1,092 434

07 1,882 566 2,448 199 220 205 995 366

08 1,682 389 2,071 198 226 205 872 286

09 1,482 212 1,694 197 231 206 749 205

10 1,282 35 1,317 196 237 206 626 125

11 1,082 -142 940 195 243 207 503 45

Av/Yr -92 -65 -156 -5 3 -2 -40 -27 -67
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Av/Yr -200 -177 -377 -1 6 1 -123 -80
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Region 3

Region 4

FY Totals

FY Totals

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M

F Total M F Total M F Total

04 1,346 546 1,892 194 182 191 702 275 978

05 1,157 530 1,687 208 196 204 664 282 947

06 1,016 490 1,506 207 206 207 562 272 835

07 843 466 1,309 216 218 216 503 273 777

08 678 438 1,116 222 230 224 433 272 705

09 513 410 923 229 242 232 363 270 634

10 348 382 730 235 253 240 293 269 562

11 183 354 537 241 265 248 223 267 491

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M

F Total M F Total M F

04 2,177 840 3,017 181 179 181 1,057 413

05 2,242 821 3,063 174 173 174 1,054 402

06 1,834 709 2,543 171 183 174 866 343

07 1,741 659 2,400 165 183 170 802 316

08 1,570 594 2,163 160 185 167 707 281

09 1,398 528 1,926 155 187 164 612 245

10 1,227 463 1,689 150 188 161 517 210

11 1,055 397 1,452 145 190 157 422 175

Av/Yr -165 -28 -193 6 12 8 -70 -2 -71
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Av/Yr -172 -66 -237 -5 2 -3 -95 -35
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Region 5

Total

FY Totals

FY Totals

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M

F Total M F Total M F Total

04 1,989 708 2,697 205 213 208 1,103 397 1,500

05 1,917 767 2,684 197 176 192 1,048 374 1,422

06 1,398 564 1,962 217 210 215 831 326 1,157

07 1,177 536 1,713 218 196 212 723 295 1,017

08 882 464 1,345 223 195 215 587 259 846

09 586 392 978 229 193 219 451 224 675

10 291 320 610 234 191 222 315 188 504

11

-5 248 243 240 189 226 180 153 333

FY

ADMs

ALOS

ADP

M

F Total M F Total M F

04 9,506 3,839 13,345 199 197 199 5,078 2,035

05 9,264 3,694 12,958 195 191 194 4,913 1,958

06 7,658 3,025 10,683 198 204 200 4,150 1,676

07 6,961 2,705 9,667 196 204 199 3,786 1,530

08 6,037 2,298 8,336 196 208 199 3,322 1,350

09 5,113 1,891 7,005 195 212 200 2,858 1,171

10 4,189 1,484 5,674 195 215 200 2,393 991

11 3,265 1,077 4,343 194 219 201 1,929 811

Av/Yr -296 -72 -368 6 -2 4 -136 -35 -171
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Av/Yr -924 -407 -1,331 -1 4 1 -464 -180
Forecasted values are shaded yellow

Total 1,934 1,847 1,526 1,362 1,158 954 751 547 -204
Total 1,470 1,456 1,209 1,118 987 857 727 596 -130
Total 7,113 6,871 5,825 5,316 4,672 4,028 3,385 2,741 -644

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APPENDIX D
Methodology and Technical Notes

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Joshua Cargile, Programmer/Analyst II

Forecasting Database/Methodology Changes

October 2005

In earlier Population Forecasts, admissions and releases were counted at every change of placement type or legal status. This worked fine for the portions of the forecast where data was broken down by legal status and placement, but gave a misleading picture when looking at Totals by placement type, Totals by legal status, or Totals for the entire DJJ system. To correct for this, admissions and releases are now counted at the start and end of contiguous time in a legal status for the legal Totals, contiguous time in a placement type for placement type Totals and contiguous time in the DJJ system for the overall Totals.

For example, when a youth is charged with an offense and sent to an RYDC, this counts as an admission to RYDC/Intake, one admission to RYDC/Total, one admission to Intake Total, and one admission to the DJJ system. If the youth is committed 3 weeks later, while still detained, this will count as a release from RYDC/Intake, a release from Intake Total, an admission to RYDC/Committed, and an admission to Committed Total. However, it will NOT count as a release from RYDC Total, because the youth is still detained in RYDC. One week later, the youth is transferred to another RYDC for population control reasons. This does not count as a release or admission anywhere, as the youth is still in RYDC and his legal status did not change. After awaiting an YDC bed for another two weeks, the youth is sent to Augusta YDC. This would count as a release from RYDC Committed, a release from RYDC Total, an admission to YDC committed, and an admission to YDC Total. After 9 months in the YDC, the youth is released to his parents. This would be a release from YDC Committed, a release from YDC Total, an admission to Community Committed, and an admission to Community Total. Three months later the judge terminated the youth's commitment. This would be one release from Community Committed, one release from Community Total, one release from Committed total, and one release from the DJJ system.

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Effects of Senate Bill 134 on STP
STP Admissions before and after SB134
6,000

Before SB134

5,500

5,802

5,000

Admissions

4,500

4,000 3,500 3,000

FY05

After SB134 3,702
36% Decrease in FY06
FY06

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DJJ Service Population Forecast FY2007 FY2011
APPENDIX E
Definitions of Placements and Forecasting Terms

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Definitions of Placements, and Forecasting Terms

Term
RYDC
YDC YDC-STP Residential Community

Placement Definitions
Youth awaiting hearing in juvenile or superior court, or placement elsewhere within the system are served in detention centers known as RYDCs. The Regional Youth Detention Centers (RYDC) population is composed primarily of pre-adjudicated youth (both juvenile and superior court youth) in intake status. Youth may also be held in RYDCs while awaiting placement after adjudication. It is possible that a youth will spend their entire secure placement in the RYDC while awaiting another placement. The department operates 22 Regional Youth Detention Centers (RYDCs). At of the end of FY2006, the total capacity of all RYDCs was 1,287 beds. YDCs are long-term secure facilities for youth that are either committed to DJJ custody or declared designated felons by juvenile courts. Under special circumstances, superior court youth (see SB440) may also be placed in an YDC. Youth in STP status may be placed in a secure setting. For this purpose, sections of some YDCs have a section for secure STP placements. This particular placement has been the recipient of recent legislation (see SB134). Youth in a number of legal statuses may be placed in non-secure programs. These range from group homes to wilderness programs. Youth in a number of legal statuses may be placed in the home. Court ordered supervision might also be required.

Term Admissions
Child Days Fiscal Year Average Length of Stay
(ALOS)
Average Daily Population (ADP)

Forecast Metrics Definition The number of youth admitted into that placement or legal status in the course of that year. The reader should note that there might be multiple placements for a single legal status and vice-versa. When a placement or legal status ends for a youth, the other may not. The cumulative numbers of days youth serve at DJJ. In other words, the sum of the total number of days served by each youth in that specific placement or legal status. 07/01 to 06/30 of the next calendar year. This definition of the fiscal year corresponds with the rest of Georgia government. The most theoretical of the forecast metrics used, ALOS cannot be precisely known for youth currently in the service and/or custody of the DJJ. Consequently, ALOS is estimated by dividing child days over the number of youth admitted into that placement or legal status. The average number of youth in that legal status on any given day of that chosen period. This metric is calculated by dividing the number of child days by the number of days in that period (accounting for leap years).

Example If a youth enters into intake in the current fiscal year, then there is one admission to intake. If the youth's legal status in the same fiscal year changes to probation, then there is one admission to probation. Overall, for the current fiscal year, there is one admission to intake and one admission to probation (despite both admissions being for a single youth). If there are 20 youth in an RYDC in from May 1 15 and 22 youth in the same RYDC from May 16 31, the child days for the RYDC is 652.
Fiscal Year 2007 is July 01, 2006 to June 30, 2007.
If 300 youth spend a combined total of 10,000 days in a single placement, then the average length of stay per youth is 33.3 days.
If there are 20 youth in an RYDC in from May 1 15 and 22 youth in the same RYDC from May 16 31, the average daily population for May is 21 youth.

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