Georgia tomorrow, changes, and challenges

,,,,"\.

_.1"'\

,..

CHALLENGE.) .

Received

JUL 311989

. DOCUMEN'Hi,

UGA lfBRA~'~S

.-

HAN G E S AND C HAL LEN G E S

GEORGIA DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

1989
Joe D. Tanner
CommiSSiOner
Sussex Place 148 International Boulevard, N.E.
Atlanta, Georgia 30303
An Equal Opportunity Employer

Acknowledgements

This pUblication was prepared by Labor

Intormation Systems, Public Affairs Division, Introduction

Georgia Department of Labor. The report represents a joint effort by the research

Demographic Trends

3

staff and the respective staffs of the

Labor Force

5

various statistical programs which consti-

tute Labor Information Systems.

Shrinking Pool of Young Workers

5

We thank the following people for their

Aging of the Work Force

6

contributions to the success of this project.

Commissioner

Women

7

Joe D. Tanner

Minorities

8

Labor Information Systems

Director

Industry Trends

9

Milton Martin

Recent Trends

9

Editor

Joyce Morris

Future Trends

9

Writer and Chief Researcher

Summary: Growth and Decline

12

Scott Radcliffe

Industry and Occupational

Changing Job Mix

13

Projections:

General Trends

13

Jim Liesendahl

Claire Wade

Shifting Occupational Structure

13

Scott Radcliffe

OCcupations with Most Yearly Openings

16

Cover Design

Michael Bailey

Fastest Growing Occupations

20

Special thanks to Gigi Tierney for prOVid- Issues and Conclusions

23

ing layout and graphic design support

Policy Issues

23

We are grateful to the following Geor-

High School Dropouts

24

gia economists for their critical evaluation

and input regarding our industry employ-

Workplace Literacy

24

ment projections:

Retraining and the Aging Work Force

24

C&S Bank

Arnold Dill

Child Care

25

Georgia Power

Minorities and Disadvantaged

25

Ernie Ellingson

Suntrust Bank

Conclusions

26

Wayne Gantt

Atlanta Regional Commission

Bart Lewis

Federal Reserve Bank

John Moen

Georgia State University

Donald Ratajczak

Southern Bell

Bruce Williams

:.. :.
.~.:'
.'
:.

Introduction
The nation and the State of Georgia stand at a crossroads as we approach the next century. Imminent demographic shifts and structural changes in the economy will require that we make choices about employment policy. Education, business, labor. local governments, and individual workers across the state will need to reflect on their positions relative to labor market dynamics. One important issue will concern the ability of workers to meet increasingly higher levels of skills and education required by the fastest growing occupational groups. On the other end of the occupational spectrum, employers will continue to have problems

attracting workers to low-skill service jobs because of low pay, poor working conditions, and lack of opportunity for advancement.
Many of the laws and policies affecting workers and the workplace date from the 1930's and the 1960's when economic and social conditions were vastly different from today. We could question the relevance of employment and training policies rooted in the New Deai or Great Society eras, but the purpose of this report is to furnish information on the labor market that can be used to evaluate current public policy.
The effects population and economic changes have on Georgia's labor market will be determined by the action taken by business, govern-

ment, and labor to meet the chal-

lenge of insuring that the state has

high-quality jobs available and well-

prepared workers to fill them.

Certain established demogra-

phic trends provide information

about the size and composition of

Georgia's future labor force. For

example, all the people who will be

in the work force by the year 2000

have already been born. We know

their age, sex, race, and other demo-

graphic traits. Unknown factors, such

as labor forCe participation rates and

migration patterns may affect labor

force projections. Yet, we know the

basic structure of the labor force for

the year 2000. Matching this informa-

tion with projected changes in eco-

nomic structure and industry shifts

provides an indication of what Geor-

gia will face entering the Twenty-first

Century.

.

and 2000. The steady decline in fertility rates (live births per 1,000 women age 15-44) which began in 1962 (115.9) has continued since then, recording a low of 66.2 in 1986. This trend, which also occurred on the national level, indicates that fewer young people will enter the labor force in the coming years. Although the 25-34 year-old age group recorded a gain of 69.9 percent between 1970 and 1985, it is

expected to increase by only 9.6 percent between 1985 and 2000.
The population will continue to grow older as the baby boom moves into the 35 through 64 age brackets. This group will constitute 35 percent of the total population by the year 2000. According to these projections,

the average age of the population will rise from the 32.6 years recorded in 1985 to 35.3 years by the year 2000.
The elderly population, age 75 or older, is projected to increase by 51.1 percent between 1985 and 2000, nearly twice the relative gain expected for the total population during the same period.

Figure 2
Population Change by Age Georgia, 1970-1985
The bulk of population growth in Georgia between 1970 and 1985 occurred in the young adult age group. This trend provided an ample supply of entry-level workers to a rapidly expanding labor market.

AGE COHORT

85 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59
50-54 4549
40-44 35-39
30-34 25-29 20-24
15-19 10-14
5-9 0-4

:=:1~
=--~
=~n ~I ~l __ t:%:81 ~~-,~n; ~~- ~ - _ _- ~ _ _-~1 I ______-_-_ a I ~
=--~1
!:%ir -',
=1;

o

100 200 300 400 500 600 700

NUMBER (in 000'.1

o POPULATION 1970 ~ POP CHANGE '70-'85

Sovce: Offlco of Plamlnl'J & BudQat

"
Figure 3
Population Change by Age Georgia, Projected 19852000
The aging of the baby-boom generation, combined with declining fertility rates since the mid-1960's, will translate into small increases in the number of young adults between 1985 and year 2000. At the same time, the 35-64 age group will experience a dramatic increase.

AGE COHORT
8580-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50--54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24
15-19 10-i4
g~~

~I

,

~

-~

v::
=--- [::%':1 .--;:c~1

~'~

=--~;

-'

~~ ~::..;::::jl

~I

f8

=1

~-----~;:::-~ -:. ~:--~- :~- :.~ .%:~ :'~J ~ J,~

I

o

200

400

600

800

NUMBER (in 000'51

UPOPUlNION \985 88 POP CHANGE '05-2000

I
1000

Demographic Trends
Along with the rest of the Sunbelt, Georgia has become the journey's end for large numbers of Americans seeking economic opportunity. In fact, Georgia added new residents at a rate of about 95,000
<'.1
per year between 1970 and 1985. In-migration accounted for half of this population gain as over 600,000 more people moved into the state than moved out during this period. That influx of people was largely fueled by the state's rapidly expanding labor market. as 40 percent of the 1970-1985 population increase consisted of people between the ages of 20 and 34.
In addition to a large net inmigration, the baby boom years had a significant impact on labor force growth across the state during the 1970's and early 1980's As depicted in Figure 1, the pattern of consistently high fertility rates that lasted through
I the early 1960's resulted in a large
I number of young people who reached working age in the past two decades Futhermore, a steady climb
'i in labor force participation among II women added to the explosive labor
,

force growth of the 70's and 80's. As indicated in Figure 2, the
youngest age cohorts showed little change between 1970 and 1985. Although the population as a whole posted a gain of 31.2 percent during this period, the 14 year old and under segment grew by only 64 percent. The 25-34 age group grew more than twice as fast as the general population between 1970 and 1985. These baby boomers represent a bulge in the population which will continue to affect demographics as they mature, have children, and grow older.
Through declining death rates and significant in-migration by the

elderly, the population segment of those 65 or older grew at a rate nearly double that of the general population. Although we expect these trends to continue, the total population will grow at a slower rate from now until the turn of the century. According to current population projections by the Governors Office of Planning and Budget. Georgia's overall population growth will slow to 29.2 percent between 1985 and 2000, down from the 31.2 percent increase between 1970 and 1985
Figure 3 illustrates the projected change in the age composition of Georgia's population between 1985

Thousands

Fertility Rate

1600 ---.----------------------, 140

1400 1200 1000
800 600

120 100 80 60

Figure 1 Fertility Rate and Females Age 15-44 Georgia, 1950-1986
While the number of females of childbearing age increased steadily over the past two decades, fertility rates have dropped even faster. This trend will lead to drastic slowdowns in the growth of young adult age cohorts by the year 2000.

40 400

200

20

----;;,-- FEMALES 15-44 - - FERTILITY RATE

o 0 -f-r-'---'I---'---I-.-r-.-r-'I'l'I---,----.-rI'I-'-,""II,---rTTTTTTT-n r-TTi-'-l- -

1950

1960

1970

1980

Sourcl.~: I '.corglo Ilcf.XJrtllll~11t of Iluli)Qn 1<\.~S0urC0S

Agi ng of the Work Force
While the pool of new entrants to the labor force is shrinking, the aging of the baby boom generation will cause huge increases in the number of middle-aged workers. Between 1985 and 2000, for example. the number of people in Georgia between the ages 35-44 will grow by 40.1 percent. and the numbers aged 45-54 will jump by 70,8 percent. compared with overall population growth of only 29.3 percent.
No doubt this maturing of the population and labor force will have far-reaching implications for society and the economy. Although much recent commentary has focused on the negative aspects of these changes, the benefits of a more mature work force should be noted. A more stable and experienced work force could improve productivity. Also, the huge baby boom generation already has initial education and training, thereby reducing the cost of producing a competent work force. The growing middle age population could also contribute to a steadier, stronger economy through savings and investment. Among those under age 35. borrowing generally exceeds savings: for people in

their 40's and 50's savings usually exceed borrowing. A higher savings rate could lead to lower real interest rates and stimulate stable, long-term economic growth.
The aging of the work force does have some negative consequences. Some companies may find that an older. higher-paid work force is noncompetitive and close or move their operations overseas. With dramatic declines in the availability of new workers, companies may find it difficult to respond to changing economic conditions. Rapid changes in technology or business practices have typically required hiring large numbers of new workers, as in the telecommunications and transportation industries. The creation of new "leading edge" companies will be slower and more costly as the wages of a shrinking pool of new workers rise and as older workers are retrained.
In 1985, about 586,000 Georgia residents were 65 years of age or older. Current projections indicate that by the year 2000, the population in this age group will have grown to more than 797,000. Between 1985

and 2000. the 65+ age group will be expanding at a rate three and one-half times greater than the 20-34 age group.
Labor force participation among Georgia's elderly has continued a steady decline for the past 25 years (Fig. 5). The percentage of people 65 years of age or older in the labor force has fallen from 18.3 percent in 1960 to 10,1 percent in 1986, This same trend exists on the national level. According to the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, nationwide labor force participation rates for people aged 65 and over have followed a downward pattern since the beginning of this century. This trend is expected to continue as more people are covered under pension plans or have other financial resources at retirement age.
Many low-skill entry level jobs remain unfilled due to shrinking young adult age groups. This situation could stimulate increased efforts on the part of employers to attract and retain elderly workers. For instance, faced with a shortage of applicants, some employers in the

Thousands

Percent

700 ,-----------------, 20

600 15
500

Figure 5 Population Age 65+ and labor Force Participation Georgia, 19601986
Although labor force participation has continued to decline among retirement-age people, this rapidly expanding segment of the population offers a wealth of work experience in the face of potentially tight labor markets.

400

Number Age 65+

10

300

-sv- Participation Rate

200 5
100

o 0 '-'-L...J-.L..L-'--L-'-I....L..I-'-'-'-L...J-.L..L-'--L--'--.l...L..I-LJ

1960

1970

1980 1986

Year

Source: U. S Bureau of Census Georgia Departrrent of Labor

"

Labor Force

Georgia's civilian labor force

increased by 52.6 percent, or 3.5

percent annually, between 1970 and

1985. By the turn of the century,

however, the work force is projected

to increase by only 2,4 percent

annually for an overall gain of 36,8

percent from 1985,

Population projections for 2000

reflect a sharp decline in net migra-

tion based on economic forecasts

that indicate a slowdown in employ-

ment growth. Indeed, the rapid

employment growth that attracted

so many workers to Georgia in recent

years is already beginning to

moderate.

A combination of changes in

labor force participation rates and

differential population growth will

influence the composition of the

work force. Women, blacks, and His-

panics are expected to represent a

greater share of the labor force

I

through continued growth of labor force participation compared to that

of white males, Furthermore, higher

fertility rates during the last decade

among blacks and Hispanics will

produce a proportionately larger

share of the working age population by 2000.
Shrinking Pool of Young Workers
The most significant demographic trend for Georgia's labor supply in the year 2000 is the dramatic slowdown in the growth of the age groups from which entry-level workers are usually drawn (Fig, 4), The impending slow rate of growth for the 15 through 34 year old age group reflects the sharp decline overall in fertility rates that has continued since the end of the baby boom.
Although a severe shortage of entry level workers is not expected, the age group from which they are drawn will grow at a much slower rate for the next 12 years, While the number of 15 to 19 year olds increased by 29,9 percent between 1970 and 1985, only a 22.8 percent gain is expected for the period between 1985 and the year 2000. More important, however, is the projected decline in the growth rate of the 20 to 34 year old age group. After recording a 56.7 percent increase between 1970 and 1985,

this group is expected to increase by only 10.0 percent between 1985 and 2000. These projections indicate that while the labor market for entry level workers may be somewhat tighter than in the past. there could be a shortage of young experienced workers from the 20 to 34 year-old age cohorts (from which new supervisors and managers are largely drawn).
This scenario represents a reversal of the labor supply situation that existed in the 1970's as the baby bo'omers came of age, providing an abundance of new entrants and . young skilled workers to the labor force. The traditional supply of young skilled workers, as well as properly trained new labor force entrants may not be large enough to fill the job openings of the year 2000. In the near future companies will need to shift their recruiting efforts to people already in the work force, disadvantaged youth, and other typically underutilized sectors of the population. If employers expect to meet their demand for properly trained workers in the early part of the next century, they may need to take a more active role in developing the skills of these groups.

PERCENT CHANGE

Figure 4 Growth in Young Adult Population Georgia, 19701985 and 19852000
After recording a 56.7 percent increase between 1970 and 1985, the number of 20-34 year olds is expected to increase by only 10.0 percent between 1985 and 2000. This scenario could turn into a shortage of entry-level workers in the coming years.

100

80

60

40

20

o --'<-----r-----L-----,----/

20-24

25-34

Source Office of Planning and Budget

AGE GROUP

Minorities

of the labor force as compared to

may invest additional resources in

Current projections indicate that

25.3 percent in 1985.

training, hiring, and retaining disad-

nonwhite persons will make up an

Although the minority segment of

vantaged and other minority workers.

increasing share of the population

Georgia's labor market is likely to

However, the pattern of job growth in

and work force in both Georgia and

increase over the next 12 years, it

high-tech and knowledge-intensive

the nation by the turn of the century

remains to be seen how this oppor-

occupations requiring more educa-

(Fig. 7). The nonwhite population will

tunity will translate into economic

tion suggests that this optimistic sce-

grow faster than the population as a

advancement for these groups. Esti-

nario will be realized only through

whole during the next twelve years

mates from the Bureau of Labor

the joint effort of business and

due to higher fertility rates among

Statistics' "1986 Geographic Profile of government. Historic patterns of

the largest minority groups. When

Employment and Unemployment"

employer behavior indicate that

straight-line projections of current

reveal the unemployment rate for

when faced with a shortage of

labor force participation rates are

black workers in Georgia to be more

trained workers, companies will resort

applied to the estimated minority

than twice that of their white coun-

to more automation in some indus-

.1

population. it is apparent that we

terparts. These statistics also indicate

tries or simply move their operation to

can expect larger gains for the

that minorities, on the average, lag

an area of the globe where labor is

nonwhite labor force than for the

behind whites in almost every other

cheaper. Furthermore, employers

labor force as a whole. Based on

measure of employment and

may be just as content to bid up the

these demographic projections

education.

wages of a shrinking pool of skilled

alone. estimates show that between

The expectation that nonwhites

workers as to expend resources

1985 and the year 2000. one out of

will comprise an increasing percen-

developing the work attitudes and

three new entrants to Georgia's labor tage of labor force growth presents,

skills of minorities,

force will be nonwhite. By 2000,

on initial examination, vast opportun-

nonwhites will comprise 27.4 percent

ities for occupational and overall

economic advancement. As employ-

ers face tight labor markets, they

Percent

80

70

:.

60

50

Figure 7 Labor Force Composition by Ethnicity Georgia, 1970, 1985, and Projected 2000
Nonwhite persons will continue to gain a larger share of the workplace into the next century. This trend is driven by rising labor force participation, and relatively higher fertility rates among minority groups.

40
30
20
10
o
1970

1985
Year

Source: Geo<gia Department of Labar

2000

fast food industry now conduct special recruiting drives aimed at senior citizens,
Overall, older workers have better work habits, are more conscientious than young workers and offer a valuable resource in the wealth of experience they possess, Employers may need to consider offering work schedules and pay/benefit plans that would attract more older workers back into the labor force,
Women
Over the past three decades women have been entering the labor force in ever-increasing numbers, Social and economic trends have made it easier, and quite often necessary, for women to take on additional roles as wage earners, Dual-income families are a fact of life, Definitions of the female role in society have also changed, legitimizing the status of women as paid employees outside the home,
In Georgia, increased employment of females has accounted for much of the recent labor force

growth, While labor force participation rates for males have fluctuated very little during the past 30 years, the proportion of women in the labor force has increased steadily, In 1960, 39,2 percent of women 16 years of age and over were in the labor force, By 1980, women's participation rate reached 51,9 percent and climbed to 58,3 percent by 1986,
The share of the labor force held by women will continue to grow into the next century, due largely to the same social and economic trends that have facilitated higher participation among females to the present (Fig, 6), If projected fertility rates are any indication, more women will continue to postpone or abstain from childbearing in favor of their careers, The growing number of women in professional schools supports this view, The rise of the single-parent family is expected to continue, making employment a necessity for many mothers, Furthermore, the dual-
Percent

income family is likely to become even more common as real income for young families continues to decline,
Although these trends will help Georgia's labor force meet the demands of expected tight labor markets, some related issues must be addressed. Dependent care is foremost among these, The consequences of inadequate services will give employers more incentive to adopt labor practices that accommodate the needs of working women and dual-income families, By the year 2000, it may become routine for employers to subsidize or provide child care, The aging of the population means that society will have to deal with the problem of insuring access to day care for elderly dependents as well. Flexible working hours, stay-at-home jobs, and parttime employment may become more prevalent in response to the needs of families who must balance working and nurturing roles,

70

60

Figure 6 Labor Force Composition
by Gender Georgia, 1970, 1985, and Projected 2000
Women's participation in the labor force has risen steadily. By the year 2000, it is expected that the labor force will be made up of nearly e<wal numbers of men and women. This trend will require greater attention to balancing the needs of work and family.

50

40

30

20

10

o
1970

1985 Year

Source: Georgia Department of Labor

2000

The data presented in Table 1

should provide employment oppor-

1990's, trucking and warehousing will

and Fig. 9 show employment by

tunities over the long term. Special

be the dominant growth industry in

major division for 1985 and projec-

trade contractors, in particular. will

the transportation division.

tions for 2000. Agriculture, forestry,

experience strong employment

Slow but stable growth should

and fishing will see a continued

growth.

characterize the communications

decline in agricultural production,

During the next twelve years,

and utilities industries as they

especially crops. Livestock production most sectors of the manufacturing

respond to population growth and

will be aided by a strong demand for economy will experience slow

business activity in the state. Com-

poultry and dairy products. Agricultu- employment growth. Both durable

munications employment will also be

ral services related to a growing

and nondurable goods employment affected by technological advances.

urban population, such as nurseries

will decline as a percent of total

so workers with the most current

and landscaping. will experience

employment. Exceptions to this gen-

training will always be in demand. As

substantial growth. Long-term farm

eral trend include substantial growth the state's population continues to

problems-ranging from recent

in printing and publishing and the

grow. the demand for removal and

~~' .'

drought conditions and low com-

electrical machinery. equipment.

safe disposal of waste material will

modity prices to farm debt-will limit

and supplies industry. Two major

result in increased demand for sani-

growth potential in this division.

industries-apparel and primary

tary services.

Mining.the smallest major indus-

metals-are not projected to expe-

Wholesale trade employment is

try division in terms of numbers

rience any significant increases in

projected to grow at a decreasing

employed, will maintain its percent

employment.

rate and comprise a smaller propor-

share of total employment. Basic

Foreign competition will continue tion of the state's total employment

products from this industry are neces- to be a factor as Georgia manufac-

by the turn of the century, even

sities in the construction and manu-

turers try to retain their share of the

though growth in the value of sales

facturing sectors of the economy.

market.

will not experience a corresponding

Employment growth in construc-

Transportation employment will

slowdown. This scenario is based on

tion should moderate over the next

maintain its relative ranking among

the expectation that business will

several years, especially in residential industries between 1985 and 2000.

continue a trend toward eliminating

and nonresidential building construc- However, deregulation of the airline

the "middle man" and localizing

tion. However, the need to rebuild.

industry and the current trends

distribution facilities.

replace, and maintain the state's

toward reduction in railroad employ-

The retail trade division will

highways, water and sewer systems,

ment and competition among deep remain a primary source of employ-

bridges. and other public facilities

water ports will moderate growth in

what was one of Georgia's fastest

growing major industries. During the

"
-.
Table 1
Georgia Employment
by Major Industry

INDUSTRY

1985
ANNUAL AVERAGE

PRCENT OF
TOTAL

2000
ANNUAL AVERAGE

PRCENT OF
TOTAL

NUMERICAL PRCENT CHANGE CHANGE

Division Estimated 1985

TOTAL All INDUSTRIES

2,819,360 100.0 3,758,000 100.0

938,640 33.29

and Projected 2000 Annual Averages

Agriculture. forestry. and fishing Mining Construction

49liJO

1.8

52.570

1.4

2.970 5.98

7.950

0.3

11.380

0.3

3,430 43.14

143.roO

5.1 186.050

5.0

42,450 29.56

Durable goods manufacturing

217.500

7.7 264.900

7.0

47,400 21.79

Nondurable goods manufacturing

335.000

11.9 400.700

10.7

Transportation

115,840

4.1

155.320

4.1

65.700 39,480

19.61 34.08

Communications and utilities Wholesale trade Retail trade'

62.950

2.2

86.430

2.3

23,480 37.29

198,700

7.0 245,470

6.5

46.770 23.53

449.950

16.0 641.610

17.1

191,660 42.59

Finance. insurance. and real estate

136,400

4.8 202.990

5.4

66.590 48.81

services

890.970 31.6 1.256.930 334 365.960 4107

Govemment

210,900

7.5 253.650

6.7

42.750 20.27

Industry Trends
Recent Trends
Industry employment in Georgia experienced a shift away from the manufacturing sector during the past forty years, In 1948, manufacturing employment was 36,3 percent of total nonagricultural wage and salary employment. By 1980, manufacturing industries in Georgia accounted for only 24.0 percent of nonagricultural jobs. This trend has continued at a more rapid pace in the 1980's. By June of 1988, the manufacturing sector's share of nonagricultural employment slipped to 20,4 percent.
Georgia's economy added 396,660 jobs between 1980 and 1986, Nonmanufacturing employment contributed 91.6 percent of this overall gain, with explosive growth in the service and retail trade industries. These two sectors account for nearly two-thirds of the state's employment growth in this decade (Rg. 8.0).
Although agricultural crop pro-
",

duction continued to lose employment, the overall industry posted a moderate gain due to healthy employment increases in livestock production and agricultural services, Overall employment in nondurable goods manufacturing remained stable as losses in some industries offset gains in others. From 1980 until 1986, textile mill products reduced employment by 15,772, or 13.6 percent, Employment in its sister industry, apparel and textile products, declined by 2,178 jobs. Foreign competition is largely responsible for the employment decline in these industries. Less expensive imported textile and apparel goods made significant advances into U.S. markets because of a strong dollar and cheap labor abroad. In addition, subsequent efforts to raise productivity, primarily by means of automation and closing outdated factories, further reduced employment in these industries.

Future Trends
In general, industry trends established during the 1980's are expected to continue into the next century, although the overall growth rate will slow to a more sustainable level. During the 1990's, the magnitude and direction of the projected industry growth presented in this report are based upon certain important assumptions, These major assumptions are:
No major world conflicts involving the U.S.
No serious economic depressions Georgia's continued ability to attract domestic and foreign investors
Continued in-migration of workers into Georgia
Atlanta's continued dominance as a regional financial, transportation, and distribution center; and maintenance of its position in the convention and trade show business

Manufacturing 9%
Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate

Con structi on 10%

Wholesale 11%

Figure 8 Composition of Employment Growth by Major Industry Georgia, 19801986

6%

.,

Transportation

5%

Communication and Utilities 2%

Retail 28%

Georgia's economy added 396,660 jobs between 1980 and 1986. Over two-thirds of this employment growth occurred in the services and trade sectors ot the economy.

services 29%
Source: Georgia Deportment of Labor

Summary: Growth and Decline
Tables 2 and 3 show the top twenty industries in terms of numerical employment increase and growth rate, respectively. Some of the notable trends include:
Service industries dominate both tables. The top seven industries in terms of growth rate are in the service sector. Ten industries are ranked in the top twenty when considering either largest numerical increase or growth rate.

Only two manufacturing industries-printing and publishing, and electrical machinery, equipment and suppliesappear in both tables. After the service industries, the largest combined growth is in the retail industries. Every major industry division is represented in at least one of the tables, suggesting a positive outlook for the future of Georgia's overall economy.
Only a few industries are projected to reduce employment by the turn of the century. Declining employment is expected in agricultural crop production, primary metals, miscellaneous manufacturing, apparel.

leather and ieather products, railroads, and water transportation. Crop production employment has been falling due to automation and the decline of the family farm. The primary metals, apparel and textiie products, leather and leather products, and miscellaneous manufacturing industries face tough competition from foreign producers with a cost advantage. Railroad and water transportation have been declining for some time and will likely continue to do so as truCking and air1ine transportation expand.

Table 2 Georgia's Leading Growth Industries

INDUSTRY

1985
AVERAGE ANNUAL
EMPLOYMENT

PROJECTED 2000
EMPLOYMENT

CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT

Ranked by Numerical

Employment Increase

Miscellaneous business services

109,050

187,900

78,850

19852000

Eating and drinking places Health services

147,750 163,350

225,480 231.100

77,730 67,750

Educational services

180,650

236,750

56,100

Special trade contractors

74,250

107,910

33,660

Wholesale trade, durable goods

127,450

160,160

32,710

Food stores, total

67,050

96,700

29,650

Retail trade, general merchandise

62,650

86,430

23,780

Hotels and other lodging places

35,250

56,500

21,250

Miscellaneous services

27,650

48,850

21,200

Local government

77,100

97,800

20,700

Printing and publishing industries

33,850

54,350

20,500

.;-

Trucking and warehou~ng

43,800

63,880

20,080

Personal services

25,750

45,090

19,340

Automobile and recreational vehicles

51,000

67,650

16.650

Banking

36,200

52,610

16,410

Textile mill products

100,450

115,740

15,290

Electrical machinery, equipment, and supplies

27,000

41.330

14,330

Wholesale trade, nondurable goods

71,250

85,310

14,060

Real estate

26,600

40,330

13,730

ment growth in the years ahead. It

Employment in real estate, which is

classifications to the services cate-

will increase its share of total employ- more sensitive to business cycles,

gory. Many of the new jobs being

ment in the state even though the

could move up or down quickly over

created in both the retail and service

consumer-driven economy of the

the next several years.

sectors are part-time in nature, and

1980's is expected to slow in the next

By the year 2000, nearly one-third

this trend is expected to continue.

decade. As disposable income

of all workers in Georgia will be

The hospital and education por-

increases for some sectors of the

employed in the services division. The

tions of state and local government

population, retailers of general mer- three largest employers in the servi-

employment (classified under health

chandise. apparel and accessories,

ces sector at this time-business,

and educational services, respec-

and food can expect steady growth, health, and educational services-

tively) are projected to experience

The largest retail employer-eating

will add over 200,000 jobs to the

high growth through the next

and drinking establishments-shows state's economy by 2000. It is impor-

decade, while the remainder of the

no sign of stagnation as more and

tant to note that a significant portion

government sector is expected to

, .I'

more people eat away from home. Employment growth in the

of the increase in business services employment consists of jobs classfied

grow at a slower rate than the economy as a whole. The number of

finance, insurance, and real estate

under temporary help and employee

government jobs will likely decrease

division will be somewhat slower than leasing. Much of this employment is

as a percent of total employment.

in the 1980's. Automation, especially scattered among a wide range of

However, employment levels will rise

in financial services and insurance,

industries. In fact. some analysts

steadily as local governments,

will have a moderating effect on

argue that much of the phenomenal

attempt to catch up in providing

recent high growth trends. However, employment growth of business servi-

services to an expanding population

banks and other financial institutions ces simply reflects the shift in existing

base.

continue to open branch offices and accounting, clerical, janitorial, and

provide an expanded range of finan- security activities from other industry

cial services to a growing urban

population. Also, increased demands

by individuals and companies for health and liability coverage will provide additional growth opportunities for the insurance industry,

~ Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing

i Mining

Construction

~

" ">. ~
Figure 9 Employment by Major Industry Division Georgia, 1985 and Projected 2000

Manufacturing
Transportation Communication
and Utilities Wholesale Trade

-..
~

Retail Trade
Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate Services

--....
-

-: 1985
rz?J 2000

Total employment is expected to increase by 938,600, or 33 percent, between 1985 and 2000. Projections indicate that the services sector will lead all other industries in the creation ot new jobs,

Government
o

200

400 600 800 Employment (ODD's)

1000

Source: Georgia Deportment of Labor

;

Rank: 10
Registered nurses
Growth rate: 54.4% (above average) 1985 employment: 31,230 Average annual job openings: 2,220
Many possibilities for temporary and part-time work. Training/experience needed:
Professional health occupation requiring extensive post-secondary training in approved programs and licensing. Bachelor's degree increasingly desired and needed for advancement. Major industry concentrations:
Most employed in health services. About two thirds work in hospitals. Outlook:
Nurses do not change occupations frequently. but they do drop out of the work force or may move from job to job.
Although the potential supply pool for this occupation is very large. there is an ongoing shortage of nurses in hospitals and in rural areas due to pay. working conditions, schedules, and job locations. Also shortages in certain specialties such as geriatrics.
Competition likely to exist for best urban jobs with best hours and salaries.
Rank: 10
Commercial cooks Growth rate: 44A% (above average)
1985 employment: 35,270 Average annual job openings: 2,220 Includes: -Restaurant cooks Growth rate: 562% (above average) Average annual job openings: 800 -Instllutlon or cafeteria cooks Growth rate: 30.6% (slightly below average) Average annual job openings: 690 -Specialty Fast Food Cooks Growth rate: 49A% (above average) Average annual job openings: 730
Much temporary and part-time work available.
Sharp declines in numbers employed in education during the summer. Training/experience needed:
Skill and training requirements depend on the complexity of the work and the size and nature of the employer.

Commercial cooks (Continued)
Training/experience needed:
First-rank restaurants whose reputation depends on their kitchen usually require culinary talent and extensive formal training or on-the-job experience. Major industry concentrations:
Most institutional cooks employed in the education and health sectors.
Restaurant cooks and specialty fast food cooks employed in eating and drinking places.
Restaurant cooks also found in hotels and motels. Outlook:
Competition will exist for best-paying jobs with most advancement potential. However. ongoing need for workers in many positions because of pay and working conditions.
Rank: 12
Bookkeeping and accounting clerks
Growth rate: 14.9% (slow) 1985 employment: 52,280 Average annual job openings: 2,060
Much temporary and part-time work available. Training/experience needed:
Requires knowledge of business arithmetic, bookkeeping/accounting principles, and familiarity with computers.
Increasingly, employers prefer applicants with post-secondary training. Major industry concentrations:
Spread throughout most industries. Outlook:
Competition will exist for best-paying positions. Considerable tumover in many positions because of pay.
Advances in computerized bookkeeping and lowered costs of personal computers will limit future employment.
Rank: 13
Maintenance repairers, general utility
Growth rate: 41.0% (above average) 1985 employment: 27,870 Average annual job openings: 1,680

Maintenance repairers, general utility (Continued)
Part-time and temporary work available. OCcupation may become even more important during economic downturns when employers try to keep purchases of machinery, equipment. and supplies at a minimum. Training/experience needed: Requires knowledge of two or more of the following crafts: carpentry, electrical work, pl,umbing and pipefitting, welding, inSUlating, and machinery/equipment repair. Generally, one to four years on-the-job or formal training are required to become fully qualified. Major industry concentrations: Found in all industries. Heaviest concentrations in real estate, especially property management. Concentrations also in machinery, equipment. and supplies, wholesaling: hotels and motels: and the education sector. Outlook: A shortage of workers competent in several of the needed crafts appears to exist and is probably due to pay, working conditions, and the length of time needed to gain skill proficiency.
Rank: 14
Elementary school teachers
Growth rote: 30.9% (slightly below average) 1985 employment: 30,720 Average annual job openings: 1,600
Much temporary employment Teachers usually work a nine-to tenmonth year. Training/experience needed: Professional occupation requiring a bachelor's degree and certification for employment in all public and some private schools. Periodic competency testing may become increasingly prevalent. Major industry concentrations: All employment in the education sector.

.. ,
:~j
Table 3 Georgia's Leading Growth Industries Ranked by Percent Increase 19852000*

INDUSTRY

1985
AVERAGE ANNUAL
EMPLOYMENT

PROJECTED 2000
EMPLOYMENT

PERCENT CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT

Agricultural services Legal services Miscellaneous services Personal services Miscellaneous business services Automobile repair, services. garages Social services Credit agencies other than bonks Furniture and home furnishings stores Printing and publishing industries Hotels and other lodging places U.S. postal services Electrical machinery. equipment. and supplies Eating and drinking places Real estate Insurance agents. brokers, and services Apparel and accessories stores Utilities and sanitary services Trucking and warehousing Bonking

10.950 13.750 27.650 25.750 109.050 19.150 19.150 19.850 19.600 33.850 35.250 15.850 27,000 147,750 26.600 15.300 24.300 24,400 43.800 36,200

20.660 24.800 48.850 45,090 187.900 31.940 31.940 32,980 31.950 54,350 56.500 24,450 41.330 225,480 40.330 22.550 35,700 35,700 63.880 52.610

88.7 804 76.7 75.1 72.3 66.8 668 66.1 63.0 60.6 60.3 54.3 53.1 52.6 51.6 47.4 46.9 46.3 45.8 45.3

* Industries of 10,000 or more employment in 1985,

Changing Job Mix
General Trends
Georgia's economy is projected to generate more than 900,000 jobs between 1985 and 2000. Although an impressive number, this 33.3 percent growth represents a significant slowdown from the 57.1 percent increase in employment experienced in the previous 15-year period. This section will focus on broad occupational group changes among the major categories used to organize the 700 to 750 occupational titles included in the 1985-2000 Georgia projection series. Also presented here is a detailed analysis of the specific xcupations which will either generJte the most openings or have the

highest growth rates during the last years of the twentieth century,
Occupational employment opportunities will shift toward opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of required skills and training. For example. the two broad occupational categories with the highest average level of required educationmanagerial and managementrelated and professional. paraprofessional. and technical-will experience above-average growth rates for the 1985-2000 period (Fig. 10). At the same time, high growth is expected for low-skill occupations in the sales and service occupational groups.
In contrast, economic and technological changes will lead to slower-than-average growth in the three broad occupational categories (clerical and administrative support: agriculture, forestry. and fishing: and production. operations, and maintenance) that contain greater numbers of occupations requiring a

medium level of education and training. These shifts are explained in greater detail in the following discussion of major categories and specific occupations,
Shifting Occupational Structure
Employment of managerial and management-related workers will increase by more than 62,000 jobs, or 35.9 percent. between 1985 and 2000. This overall growth rate masks conflicting trends among different types of management occupations. High growth rates are projected for management occupations concerned with fiscal responsibility. productivity, and expansion of markets. In fact, general managers/top executives and financial managers will account for one-half of the total gain in jobs for this major category as increasing competition forces companies to continually scrutinize pro-

Rank: 20
Guards and watchguards Growth rate: 63.3% (rapid) Average annual job openings: 1,330
Increasing opportunities for part-time and temporary work. especially in protective services industry. Training/experience needed:
Service occupation open to those without a high school diploma (or GED) if applicants are literate and physically fit.
Employers provide training but prefer applicants with prior experience in law enforcement. Major industry concentrations:
Found in almost all industries. However. heaviest concentration is increasingly in protective services as companies contract for security services. Outlook:
High turnover occupation. Ongoing need for workers because of pay and working conditions.
In times of low unemployment. employers may have special difficulty in filling positions.

Paralegal personnel (Continued) (legal assistants and legal
technicians) Part-time work available.
Employment relatively unaffected by economic downturns except in such optional services as estate planning. drafting of wills. and real estate sales. Training/experience needed:
Paraprofessional occupation which increasingly requires post-secondary preemployment training. (Normally two years. but some programs last four years: some a few months.)
Certification is currently optional. but may broaden employment possibilities. Major industry concentrations:
Most in legal services. Some concentration in government. Outlook:
Competition exists for best-paying jobs and may intensify because the number of paralegal training programs is growing rapidly.

Rank: 3
Medical records technicians and technologists
Growth rate: 88.2% 1985 employment: 1,020 Average annual job openings: 100
Employment levels do not normally vary with changes in economic conditions. Training/experience needed:
Technical health occupation where accredited applicants are increasingly preferred.
Eligibility for the accredited examination requires graduation from either an accredited associate degree or on approved independent home study program Major industry concentrations:
Most in health services. The rest in social services and government. Outlook:
Shortage of well-qualified applicants due partly to pay. Growth rate may accelerate because of increased demands imposed by insurance companies and Medicare.

NOTE: The "Average Annual Job Openings" figures are rounded as they are only estimates. Totals include vacancies which occur as the

Rank: 2
Computer systems analysts, data processing

Rank: 4

occupations grow or as workers leave the

Growth rate: 95.9%

Offset lithographic press setters

labor market entirely. They do not include

1985 employment: 8,010

and set-up operators

openings which arise when workers change

Average annual job openings: 840

Growth rate: 84A%

occupations. For many occupations-

Temporary work available. Possibilities

1985 employment: 1,600

especially entry-level occupations- that

for self-employment. Employment not usu-

Average annual job openings:150

means the actual number of average

ally affected by economic changes.

Employment levels may vary with

annual openings may be much higherthan

Training/experience needed:

changes in the economy.

the figure indicated.

Top of the line professional data pro-

Training/experience needed:

>
'.'....

cessing occupation requiring extensive training plus work experience in the field

Not an entry-level occupation. Lengthy on-the-job training required. Frequent

of interest. College degree usually sought

retraining needed to keep up with tech-

Georgia

and graduate degree preferred for some of the more complex jobs.

nological advances. Many employers prefer to hire those

Fastest GrOWing

Major industry concentrations: Found in many industries. Heaviest con-

who have completed post-secondary programs in printing technology as it shortens

Occupations*

centration in computer and data processing services.

needed training time. Major industry concentrations:

1985-2000

Outlook: Ongoing shortage of experienced,

All in printing and publishing. Outlook:

higher-level systems analysts. Due to

Growth rate may slow over time due to

widespread publicity given computer

new labor-saving printing technologies.

Rank: 1

occupations. competition for beginning systems analyst positions likely - espe-

Paralegal personnel

cially in urban areas.

(legal assistants and legal

technicians)

Growth rate: 119.4%

1985 employment: 1,390

Average annual job openings: 170

Rank: 4 (Continued)
Truck drivers Training/experience needed:
Qualifications vary depending on type of truck and business. Normally, no formal training required. Commercial driving per~ mit is needed. Federal legislation man~ dates truck driving test for heavy tractor~trailertruck drivers.
Those with good driving records, prior truck driving experience and knowledge of auto/truck mechanics preferred. Major industry concentrations:
Found in most industries. Almost half of all heavy tractor~trailertruck drivers and about 20 percent of light truck drivers employed in local and long distance trucking. Outlook:
Considerable turnover Competition will exist for best~paying jobs. Ongoing need for workers in certain areas and positions.
In times of low unemployment, employers may have special difficulty in filling positions.
Rank: 5
Cashiers Growth rate: 42.8%( above average) 1985 employment: 60,290 Average annual job openings: 3,730
Sensitivity to changes in economic con~ ditions varies by industry.
Numbers in grocery stores and eating and drinking places likely to be reasona~ bly constant.
Much temporary and part~time work available. Training/experience needed:
Entry~level sales occupation requiring little education.
Most employers train on~the~job. Major industry concentrations:
Found in many industries, but heaviest concentrations in retail trade.
Largest employers are grocery stores and eating and drinking places. Outlook:
High turnover occupation. Ongoing need for workers. Few promotional oppor~ tunities, but occupation may provide a good opportunity to learn employer's business and may serve as stepping~stone to more responsible jobs.
In times of low unemployment, mony employers will have difficulty filling posi~ tions because of pay and repetitive nature of the work.

Rank: 6
General managers and top executives
Growth rate: 37.7% (slightly above average) 1985 employment: 63,690 Average annual job openings: 3,680 Training/experience needed:
Not an entry-level occupation. Workers often gain positions through promotion. Extensive formal and informal training and successful prior management experience required. In many industries, college degree increasingly desired. Outlook:
Competition will exist for most jobs. Individuals with initiative; strong communi~ cations, interpersonal, and organizational skills; leadership and problem solving ability; good judgment; and the capacity to make sound decisions will have best chances for success.
Rank: 7
General office clerks Growth rate: 35.1% (average) 1985 employment: 52,740 A...erage annual job openings: 2,930
Increasing amounts of temporary and part~time work available as many com~ panies cut the size of their permanent support staff. Training/experience needed:
Entry~level generalist office occupation requiring clerical skills and familiarity with office equipment such as word processors and personal computers.
Since occupation is often used as stepping~stone to other occupations, employers consider attitude and willing~ ness to learn to be very important. Major industry concentrations:
Distributed throughout most industries. Outlook:
High turnover occupation. Ongoing need for workers, especially during peak business periods.
Best employment and advancement potential for those with most versatility and broad~bosed skills.

Rank: 8
Janitors and cleaners except maids
Growth rate: 45.1% (above average) 1985 employment: 44,990 Average annual job openings: 2,860
Increasing amounts of temporary and part~time work available as utilization of commercial cleaning services expands. Training/experience needed:
Entry~level service occupation with most training provided on~the~job. In certain industries, workers may be asked to make minor plumbing, electrical. and other repairs.
Because workers spend most of their time doing physical labor, employers seek honest, dependable, and efficient employees with stamina. Major industry concentrations:
Found in most industries. Heaviest con~ centrations and most rapid employment growth in services to dwellings and other buildings. Outlook:
High turnover occupation. Ongoing need for workers due to pay, working conditions, and lack of advancement potential.
Rank: 9
Waiters and waitresses Growth rate: 54.0% (above average) 1985 employment: 33,570 Average annual job openings: 2,380
Much temporary and part~time work available. Training/experience needed:
Entry~level service occupation with train~ ing usually provided on the Job. However. many larger hotels and restaurants seek experienced workers.
Workers need physical agility and stamina. Major industry concentrations:
Most in eating and drinking places. Large numbers also in hotels and motels. Outlook:
High turnover occupation. Keen compe~ tition for jobs with best pay and tip potential. Ongoing need for workers in many establishments due to pay, working conditions, and lack of advancement potential.
In times of low unemployment, employ~ ers may have special difficultiy in filling positions.

Rank: 10
Counter and rental clerks Growth rate: 73.0% 1985 employment: 4,180 A...erage annual job openings: 360
Much temporary and part-time work available. Training/experience needed:
Entry-level sales occupation with brief training usually provided on-the job. Major industry concentrations:
All in wholesale trade. retail trade and the seNice sector.
Over 40 percent employed in laundry. cleaning. and garment services. Outlook:
High turnover occupation. Ongoing need for workers because of pay. working conditions. and lack of advancement possibilities. During times of low unemployment. many employers will have special difficulty filling positions.
Rank: 11
Precision lithographers and photoengravers
Growth rate: 72.0% 1985 employment: 1,180 A...erage annual job openings: 100
Employment levels may change with the economy. Training/experience needed:
Skilled craft occupation requiring years of on-the-job training to become a journeyman worker. However. employers prefer to hire those who have completed formal printing technology programs because it shortens their training time. Major industry concentrations:
Almost all in printing and publishing. Outlook:
Particular need is for lithographers. Employment of photoengravers will decline as offset printing replaces letterpress.
In the long run. growth will probably be limited by labor-saving technologies which are currently too expensive for most small firms.

Industrial engineers (Continued)
Training/experience needed: Skilled professional occupation normally
requiring a bachelor's degree. Advanced training in management systems may be necessary for promotion in some cases. Major industry concentrations:
Nationwide. over 4 of 5 jobs were in manufacturing industries in 1986. However. because their skills are more concerned with people. and methods of business organization. industrial engineers work in many settings. Outlook:
Industrial groWth. more complex business operations. and greater use of automation in both factories and offices will ensure employment growth.
Rank: 13
Gardeners and groundskeepers
Growth rate: 65.9% A...erage annual job openings: 1,490 1985 employment: 18,530
Much temporary or part-time work and many possibilities for self-employment.
Seasonal variations in number of workers needed. Training/experience needed:
Entry-level outdoor occupation requiring little education. training. or experience.
Employers prefer hard-working reliable applicants with a "green thumb". Major industry concentrations:
Found in most industries. Heaviest concentrations in agricultural seNices. real estate. and private households. Outlook:
High turnover occupation. Ongoing need for workers because of pay. working conditions. and amount of physical labor involved.
In times of low unemployment. many employers will have difficulty filling positions.

Rank: 12
Industrial engineers, except safety Growth rate: 68.0% 1985 employment: 2,120 A...erage annual job openings: 170

Rank: 14
Surgical technicians Growth rate: 65A% 1985 employment: 1,040 A...erage annual job openings: 83

Surgical technicians (Continued)
Training/experience needed: Formal training required. Although most
programs last 9 to 10 months. some community college programs last 2 years and lead to an associate degree. Certification is voluntary. although required by some employers. Major industry concentrations:
Most surgical technicians are employed by hospitals and other places that have operating room. delivery room. and emergency room facilities. Some (known as "private scrubs") are employed directly by surgeons. Outlook: Possible shortage of experienced surgical technicians. Numbers employed will continue to rise due to projected changes in the age structure of the population. and technological advances that allow surgical inteNention for a greater variety of medical conditions.
Rank: 15
Hairdressers and cosmetologists Growth rate: 65.2% 1985 employment: 13,345 A...erage annual job openings: 1,065
Much temporary and part-time work. Good opportunities for self-employment. Training/experience needed: Graduation from a state-licensed cosmetology school is required. Instruction is offered in both public and private schools. and usually lasts from 6 months to 2 years. Outlook: Employment growth will be pushed up by population growth. especially among middle-aged persons. and the rising number of working women.
Rank: 16
BindelY machine operators Growth rate: 65.1% 1985 employment: 1,360 A...erage annual job openings: 108
Employment levels may vary with changes in the economy. Some part-time and temporary employment available.

Rank: 14 (Continued)
Elementary school teachers Outlook:
Long-term effects of Quality Basic Education Act on employment as yet uncertain.
In recent years, large numbers of teachers have changed occupations due to pay and working conditions.
Ongoing shortage of workers in many rural areas. Competition will exist for best urban jobs.
Rank: 15
Accountants and auditors
Growth rate: 55.4% (above average) 1985 employment: 21,780 Average annual job openings: 1,570
Opportunities for part-time work. Especially heavy workloads likely at tax time. Training/experience needed:
A professional occupation requiring at least a bachelo(s degree plus familiarity with computers and accounting and auditing applications
Allied work experience increasingly desired. Major industry concentrations:
Found in most industries. A considerable number are self-employed.
Outlook:
Keen competition exists for jobs with prestigious accounting firms. However, well-qualified accountants are always in demand. Many opportunities for selfemployment.
Excellent advancement potential as many companies prefer managers with a background in accounting, internal auditing and finance.
Rank: 16
Soles representatives, except scientific and reta il
Growth rate: 26.5% (below average) 1985 employment: 31,830 Average annual job openings: 1,550
Possibilities for self-employment and part-time work.
Employment levels will vary with economic conditions and consumer preferences.

Sales representatives, except scientific and retail (Continued)
Training/experience needed: Not an entry-level occupation. Most
employers prefer those with proven sales ability, and many prefer applicants with college degree.
Training for new workers usually provided by company Major industry concentrations:
Most employed in wholesale trade and manufacturing.
Outlook:
High rates of occupational transfer among less successful workers since pay usually depends directly on sales volume.
Ongoing need for workers in many areas.
Rank: 17
Gardeners and groundskeepers
Growth rate: 65.9% (rapid) 1985 employment: 18,530 Average annual job openings: 1,490
Much temporary or part-time work and many possibilities for self-employment.
Seasonal variations in number of workers needed. Training/experience needed:
Entry-level outdoor occupation requiring little education, training, or experience.
Employers prefer hard-working reliable applicants with a "green thumb". Major industry concentrations:
Found in most industries. Heaviest concentrations in agricultural services. real estate, and private households.
Outlook:
High turnover occupation. Ongoing need for workers because of pay, working conditions, and amount of physical labor involved.
In times of low unemployment. many employers will have difficulty filling positions.
Rank: 18
stock clerks, sales floor
Growth rate: 32.1% (slightly below overage) 1985 employment: 25,330 Average annual job openings: 1,350

Stock clerks, sales floor (Continued)
Many opportunities for temporary and part-time work.
Employment levels in grocery stores fairly stable.
Likely to vary in other industries with changes in economic conditions. Training/experience needed:
Entry-level occupation with most training provided on-the job.
Because occupation may be a steppingstone to other work (especially in grocery stores and wholesa Ie trade), employers often prefer those with a desire to learn about company's products and activities. Major industry concentrations:
Most in retail trade and about half in grocery stores.
Some in wholesale trade.
Outlook:
High turnover occupation. Ongoing need for workers in many industries because of pay and working conditions.
In times of low unemployment, many employers may have special difficulty filling positions.
Rank: 19
Nursing aides, and orderlies
Growth rate: 27.1% (below average) Average annual job openings: 1,340
Much temporary and part-time work available. Training/experience needed:
Entry-level health occupation. Formal short-term training has become an employment prerequisite in many hospitals because it is readily availabie. Nursing homes may provide some training on-thejob, but often seek older workers. Major industry concentrations:
Most found in hospitals and nursing/personal care facilities.
Future employment possibilities in hospitals expected to diminish while numbers in nursing/personal care facilities increase.
Outlook:
High turnover occupation. Ongoing need for workers because of pay, working conditions, and lack of advancement potential without further training.
In times of low unemployment, employers may have special difficulty in filling positions.

of life as occupational requirements shift in response to the rapid pace of technological and economic change. Those responsible for training and education must take the initiative to instill critical thinking skills so that workers are prepared for a lifetime of learning.
Adaptability is a key requirement for future workers. They will change jobs more frequently and may be expected to perform more varied tasks. Therefore,a productive, competitive worker must be able to assimilate and apply new knowledge in the workplace.
High School Dropouts
Those who fail to obtain a basic education in high school run the greatest risk of being noncompetitive in the work force. The Geargia Department of Education estimates that nearly one-third of the state's high school students drop out. Generally, high school dropouts are forced to take low-skill jobs with low pay and no hope for advancement. Furthermore, they are more likely to be unemployed, involved in crime and drug use, or become dependent on some form of government income assistance. The hard facts are that in 1986 a high school graduate was 61 percent more likely to be employed three months after finishing school than a dropout.
Demographically, the absolute number of dropouts will decline as the age group from which they are drawn shrinks. By the same token, the number of available entry level workers will decline. Thus, the primary issue is not the actual size of the dropout population. If dropout rates remain the same, a shortage of entry level workers is more likely.
For both the nation and Georgia, projections indicate that well-paying jobs in the workplace are requiring more thinking skills and fewer manual skills. There will be an increasing demand for employees who have problem-solving ability, writing and

calculation skills, and can accept constructive criticism. These requirements leave less and less room for high school dropouts.
Workplace Literacy
The dropout problem is closely related to another issue, that of workplace literacy. As the work environment responds to technological and economic change, literacy demands also change. Thus, we view literacy as a developmental process, instead of a literate/illiterate dichotomy.
The connections between literacy and work are complex. We are just beginning to sort out the relevant questions and to develop effective responses. Although many issues remain unresolved, some points generally agreed upon can serve as a starting place for moving ahead.
The data from Georgia, which are consistent with national trends, show that many of the fastest growing occupations in the next twelve years are those that require high levels of education and literacy. At the same time, the composition of the work force is changing. Demographics have already determined that the pool of entry level workers is getting smaller. The majority of new labor force entrants between now and the year 2000 represent groups that historically have had lower levels of basic skills and lower educational attainment, such as minorities and school dropouts. We must pay closer attention to the education and training of these groups to ensure a competent work force as we enter the next century.
Public school reform is important for addressing basic literacy problems, but adult education is the appropriate platform from which to address the workplace literacy problem, as most of the workers of the year 2000 already are out of school. Futhermore, changes in the workplace continually produce gaps

between job literacy demands and high school learning.
Many jobs will require workers to read more varied and more difficult material. such as technical manuals, diagrams, and graphs. Workers must be able to use literacy skills as tools for immediate application of new knowledge on the job, which means using analytical abilities usually not developed in high school. Workplace literacy also includes effective communication skills. It is increasingly evident that asking questions and gathering information from other workers are skills that are just as important as reading and writing.
Workplace literacy programs must address the entire range of literacy demands. Some workers need to develop basic reading and writing skills to qualify for entry level jobs or training programs. Others need to improve their skills as they are faced with advancing literacy demands. Effective responses to workplace literacy development needs must involve cooperation among employers, public schools, and adult education providers.
Retraining and the Aging Work Force
At the same time that the economy is demanding a more adaptable work force, the aging of the baby boomers is resulting in an older work force that is less willing to retrain or change occupations. Compounding the problem, many national policies promote this inflexibility in the face of change.
Take, for example, the issue of retraining. Although worker retraining is a popular concept that receives billions of dollars from the federal government and private industry, there is no widespread consensus that workers should expect to learn new skills over the course of their working life. In most companies training is limited to managers and technical specialists. There is little systematic effort to insure that all

..' :~.

Rank: 5

Veterinarians and veterinary

Tax preparers (Continued)

Electrical and electronic engineers Growth rate: 79.8% 1985 employment: 4,660 Average annual job openings: 430
Because workers are often involved in research and development and defenserelated projects. numbers employed will vary sharply over time. Training/experience needed:
Highly skilled professional occupation normally requiring licensing and bachelor's degree in electrical/electronics/communications engineering. Advanced training in engineering or business may be necessary fOf promotion. Major industry concentrations:
Heaviest concentrations are in nonmanufacturing. Major employers are engineering, architectural. and surveying services: electric companies and services: electrical goods wholesaling: and computer/data processing services. Outlook:
Competition fOf best jobs and fOf jobs in some industries and locations will exist since many electrical/electronic/communications engineers are being trained every year.

inspectors (Continued)
Outlook: Number of active veterinarians may
exceed demand - resulting in increased competition for jobs and lower than anticipated earnings.
Competition fOf positions as veterinary inspectors will exist.
Demand for those with specialty training beyond basic degree should remain high.
Rank: 7
Barbers Growth rate: 77.1% 1985 employment: 4,150 Average annual job openings: 370
Part-time work available. Many opportunities for self-employment.
Demand may vary somewhat with economic conditions. Training/experience needed:
Personal service occupation requiring formal training and licensing.
Self-employed also need business skills, initiative, and capital.

Training/experience needed: Workers do not have the background
and responsibilities of an accredited accountant.
Tax return firms frequently do their own training and will hire high school graduates. Accounting, auditing, and bookkeeping services prefer to hire those with a college degree in accounting or a related field. Major industry concentrations:
Over half in miscellaneous personal services, large numbers in accounting, auditing. and bookkeeping services.
About ten percent self-employed. Outlook:
Biggest increase is in tax return firms where the wOfk is mainly seasonal. Better possibilities for ongoing employment in accounting, auditing, and bookkeeping services.
Competition will exist for best jobs.
Rank: 9
Legal secretaries Growth rate: 74.6%

Major industry concentrations:

1985 employment: 4,010

Concentrations in barber and beauty

Average annual job openings: 350

Rank: 6

shops. About two-thirds self-employed.

Employment levels do not change much with variations in the economy.

Veterinarians and veterinary inspectors
Growth rate: 78.6% 1985 employment: 1,170 Average annual job openings: 110 Training/experience needed:
Highly skilled professional occupation. Degree in veterinary medicine required of

Outlook: Competitive occupation where income
is provided by some combination of commissions. wages and tips.
Those with hairstyling skills and sound judgments on ftattering hair styles will have best chances for success.

Temporary and part-time work available. Training/experience needed:
Need for word processing skills; acquaintanceship with personal computers: good communications, interpersonal and organization skills: and welldeveloped clerical ability.
Also need analytic and research skills.

l ~

both veterinarians and veterinary

inspectors.

Veterinarians must be licensed. License

usually not required of veterinary

inspectors.

Competition fOf admittance to veteri-

Rank: 8
Tax preparers Growth rate: 75.0%

Knowledge of legal terminology and capacity to work well under stress. Major industry concentrations:
Almost all in legal services. Outlook:
Competition will exist for best-paying

nary programs will exist. Major industry concentrations:
Most in agricultural services and livestock production. Some concentration in

1985 employment: 1,320 Average annual job openings: 120
Much part-time and temporary work. Most openings occur around tax time

jobs. But highly skilled legal secretaries are always in demand.
High turnover in some positions because of pay. workload, and pace.

government

Opportunities for self employed.

About 40 percent self-employed.

the next 12 years, employer involvement will playa key role.
Conclusions
Because of the existing national and international labor supply, our concern is not the ability of companies to fill these positions. The point of concern for our state is ensuring that Georg ians are prepared to take advantage of the approaching employment opportunities.
Some inferences can be drawn from the preceding analysis of projected economic and population trends. While the impact that the large baby-boom generation made on society has been widely d~s cussed, the successive birth dearth group has received little attention. The projected decline of jobseekers age 20-34 offers the possiblity of improved employment prospects for many.
As firms compete for a shrinking pool of young managers or skilled technicians and professionals, oppor-

tunities for significant advances by disadvantaged and underemployed sectors of the population will occur.
Rapid growth in many high skill/ high pay occupations coupled with
the fact that minorities and women will constitute the most rapidly expanding portion of the labor force, has laid the groundwork for unprecedented opportunity. This assumes that past employment problems for these groups including educational requirements, child care, and geographic location of jobs, can be solved.
Developing employment trends will also warrant some attention in the future. The strength of several skill/knowledge intensive industries in the state will ensure quality employment opportunities as we enter the next century. Many of the occupations which require the most education are projected to have the

highest growth rates, even if relative growth is smaller. At the same time, the groups from which these positions are typically filled are shrinking.
On the other hand, large employment shifts toward low skill/ low wage occupations in the service and retail industries present potential problems for employers. As the pool of entry-level workers shrinks and women increasingly seek full-time work, a mismatch develops between the demand for a large number of low-paid (often part-time) workers and the economy's ability to supply these workers. To resolve this conflict, relevant industries must adjust. Providing a larger share of full-time jobs, opportunity for advancement. and increased benefits are steps that may need to be taken. If changes do not occur, employers may be unable to attract the qualified workers they need, and traditionally underutilized sectors of the population will remain so.

Rank: 16 (Continued)

Mechanical engineers (Continued)

Rank: 20

Bindery machine operators
Training/experience needed: Semi-skilled manufacturing =cupation
with training often provided on the job.

Employment levels will vary over time, as substantial employment is in research and development, which is heavily influenced by economic cycles.

Bill and account collectors Growth rate: 63.3% 1985 employment: 3,520 Average annual job openings: 276

Major industry concentrations:

Training/experience needed:

Part-time work available. Employment

About three-fourths in printing and pub-

A bachelor's degree in engineering

heavily affected by economic cycles.

lishing. Largest share in commercial print- from an accredited engineering program

Training/experience needed:

ing and blankbooks/book binding.

is generally acceptable for entry-level

Employers prefer personable, aggressive

Outlook:

jobs. State licensure requires the above,

individuals who are even-tempered and

Good prospects for future growth in industries where greatest numbers of bind-

plus a minimum of 4 years experience, passage of a written exam, and Georgia

persistent. Most training is provided onthe-job

ery machine operators are employed.

residency.

Major industry concentrations:

High turnover in some settings because of Major industry concentrations:

The majority are employed by banks,

-~'.~

pay, working conditions, and lack of advancement potential.

The majority of positions are in manufacturing, especially in the transportation

loan companies, and collection agencies. Some work for wholesale and retail

equipment, electrical equipment, machinery, and fabricated metal pro-

businesses.
Outlook:

ducts industries.

Generally good as more purchases are

Rank: 17

Outlook:
Employment growth will be sustained by

being made on credit than ever before, and the percentage of overdue accounts

Employment interviewers Growth rate: 65.1 % 1985 employment: 1,650

demand for machinery and machine tools, and the increasing complexity of industrial machines and processes.

has risen steadily. Long-term growth depends on expansion and stability of the economy.

Average annual job openings: 130

Prospects in the private sector should

Includes occupations with a 1985

be excellent: little growth is foreseen in

employment level of at least 200.

the public sector. Training/experience needed:

Rank: 19

The average annual job opening figures are rounded as they are only estimates.

Although many agencies prefer to hire

Guards and watchguards

Tables include vacancies which =cur as

college graduates, a degree is not always Growth rate: 63.3% (rapid)

the =cupations grow or as workers leave

necessary. Temporary help service com-

1985 employment: 16,950

the labor force entirely. They do not

panies and personnel firms generally put

Average annual job openings: 1,330

include opening which arise when workers

top priority on "people" skills and other

Increasing opportunities for part-time

change occupations.

personal characteristics.

and temporary work, especially in protec-

Major industry concentrations:

tive services industry.

The majority of employment interviewers Train ing/experience needed:

work for employment firms or temporary

Service occupation open to those with-

help service companies. Most of the rest

out a high school diploma (or GED) if

work for the State Employment Service.

applicants are literate and physically fit.

Outlook:
Continued rapid growth firms supplying

Employers provide training, but prefer applicants with prior experience in law

Issues and

temporary help will provide ample opportunities. Expansion of the personnel con-

enforcement. Major industry concentrations:

Conclusions

sulting industry will also create many new

Found in almost all industries. However,

openings, espcially for those who have

heaviest concentration is increasingly in

had college courses.

protective services as companies contract for security services.

Policy Issues

Outlook:

Rank: 18
Mechanical engineers Growth rate: 63.6% 1985 employment: 4,180 Average annual job openings: 330

High turnover occupation. Ongoing need for workers because of pay and working conditions.
In times of low unemployment. employers may have special difficulty in filling positions.

Georgia's greatest challenge for continued economic growth is maintaining a well-trained, adaptable work force. Continuing education and retraining are becoming a way

workers upgrade their skills in order to avoid obsolescence, National policies that support retraining should be backed up with fiscal incentives for employers to invest in lifelong education for their work force.
Most pensi(;Jn systems in this country also promote an unwillingness to change, primarily because retirement benefits are tied to the job and not the worker. Employees usually receive no benefits if they leave after a few years. By the time they reach mid-career, they will suffer
...1
major benefit loses if they switch employers. Under these conditions, it does not make sense for long-term employees to spend time and money preparing for a different job, It runs counter to their interests to plan a career change when they have so much invested in their present job and employer. Therefore, when subsequent plant closings or layoffs occur, they are wholly unprepared to make the transition to another field or adapt to new technology in the same industry.

Child Care

America has become a society

.j of dual income housholds, Nation-

I

wide, only 11 percent of women with children under the age of six worked

in 1960. Today, over half do so. We

have just begun to recognize the

impact of this trend, let alone adapt

to it.

When both parents must work to

make ends meet. the primary respon-

sibility for child-raising falls to day

care providers. Quality of care has

significant effects on the subsequent

development of children. In many

cases, however, day care (s either

poor or totally absent, Some families

that cannot afford day care must

leave children to fend for themselves

between school hours and the par-

ents' return from work. This situation

has created a whole class of youngs-

ters known as "latch-key children." In

other instances, particularly in single-

parent households with very young

children, the breadwinner must quit work and go on government assistance because affordable child care is not available,
At present, very few employers provide day care as a fringe benefit. In spite of the fact that companies that provide such assistance have lower absenteeism and turnover and higher worker productivity than companies that do not, In fact. recent figures released by the Child Care Action Campaign indicate that. nationwide, employers lose $3 billion annually as a result of worker absenteeism stemming from child care problems.
As we approach the next century, it is likely that the more progressive employers will broaden their support for day care. Government could facilitate this trend by expanding the child care tax credit, creating a child care voucher, or offering incentives for employers to assist with day care.
As the trend in dual wage earner families continues, we cannot ignore the evidence. Inadequate child care has a long-term social and economic impact contributing to poor school performance, decreased employability, and criminal behavior. More investments in the care of the children of working parents are vital to our state's future.
Minorities and Disadvantaged
If employment patterns of the present continue, the opportunities posed by higher growth among nonwhite young adults than among whites will be missed. By the turn of the century, the problems of minority dependency, unemployment, and crime could be worse than they are today.
The demographic shifts that will occur by the year 2000 represent both great opportunity and further frustration for minority workers. With fewer young people coming into the

work force, employers will go to greater lengths to fill high-skill positions, They may be more willing to offer jobs and training to those disadvantaged workers they have traditionally igonored. On the other hand, employers may be content to increase the wages of a shrinking pool of well-prepared young labor force entrants. Thus, while many high skill positions may go begging, minorities could continue to be overrepresented in the poorly pa,id, low-skill jobs that will actually constitute the largest portion of new job growth in the next twelve years.
The societal changes necessary to remedy employment problems for minorities are much larger than the scope of any government program.The foundation for any longterm solution to the problem must include individual and family responsibility for literacy, attitudes toward work, eliminating drug use, and pregnancy prevention, Although illiteracy, substance abuse, unplanned pregnancy, and poor work ethic are by no means confined to minorities, their occurrence is disproportionately high in the minority community, making it doubly difficult for the many who are struggling to disprove negative stereotypes and succeed despite limited opportunities. Before the disadvantaged of all ethnic groups can make greater gains within the occupational structure of this country, there must be changes in the value system that makes it more appealing to sell drugs or live on government assistance than to do well in school and hold a job.
Other needed changes rest on the shoulders of business. Private employers must expand their role in the development of their work forces. The quality of the workers they will hire in the coming years is crucial to their success. Also, they have the most expertise in designing and running cost-effective, technologically up-to-date training programs. If real advances are made in hiring and training disadvantaged workers over

".'
.i
References
Monthly labor Review, Nov. 1985; U.S. Department of Labor. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Geographic Profile of Employment and Unemployment 1986, U.S. Department of Labor. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Census of Population: 1970, Georgia, General Social and Economic Characteristics, Pc( 1)-C 12 (Washington: Government Printing Office). U. S. Department of Commerce. Bureau of the Census. Census of Population: 1980. Georgia, Characteristics of the Population, Volume 1, PC80-1- (Washington: Government Printing Office). U. S, Department of Commerce. Bureau of the Census.
.... Census of Population: 1960, Georgia, Detailed Characteristics, , PC(1)-120. (Washington.: Government Printing Office). U. S, Department of Commerce. Bureau of the Census, Georgia Department of Labor. Labor Information Systems. Current Employment Statistics Program. Atlanta. Ga. Georgia Department of Labor. Labor Information Systems. Local Area Unemployment Statistics Program. Atlanta. Ga. Georgia Department of Labor. Labor Information Systems. Occupational Employment Statistics Program. Atlanta. Ga. Regional Economic Growth in the United States: Projections for 1987 - 2010 Volume III;. Regional Economic Projections Series 86-R-3. by Nestor Ter1<eckyi. National Planning Association; Washington. D.C. 1987. Govemor's Office of Planning and Budget. Demographic and Statistical SeNices. Atlanta. Ga. "Solving Georgia's Dropout Problem: Reaching the Missing Student; Georgia Alert: A look at Education's Role Today, VOl 16. Number 2. May 1987; Public Information and Publications Division. Georgia Department of Education. Atlanta. Ga. Work1orce 2000: Work and Workers for the 21st Century, Johnston 1 William. The Hudson Institute. Indianapolis. Indiana. June 1987, The Maine labor Force to the Year 2000, and Related Human Resources Issues, Bureau of Employment Security. Maine Department of Labor. Augusta. Maine. April 1987.