UPDATE To
Analysis of Liabilities Of the
Georgia Subsequent Injury Trust Fund Including
Analysis of Current Liabilities Analysis of Future Liabilities, Future Assessment Activity, and Future Opened Claims Activity
December 11, 2006
Update prepared by Martin M. Simons ACAS, MAAA, FCA
Public Actuarial Consultant P.O.BOX 61020
Columbia, SC 29260
1
UPDATE To
Analysis of Liabilities Of the
Georgia Subsequent Injury Trust Fund
Including
Analysis of Current Liabilities Analysis of Future Liabilities, Future Assessment Activity, and Future Opened Claims Activity
Description of the update:
This update, in accordance with the Board's direction, provides estimated future fund liabilities and assessments adjusted from the previous estimates to account for the effects of legislation passed subsequent to the previous report as well as to extend the estimates through the life of the Fund. In addition, there are two proposals presented for suggested strategies that will allow the Fund to fulfill its obligations at a time earlier than that at which all Fund anticipated reimbursements will have been fully paid.
This report fulfills all the requirements of the Actuarial Standards Board of the American Academy of Actuaries (with which the author is actively involved) and other relevant criteria promulgated by actuarial bodies governing actuarial reports. Standard actuarial techniques have been used throughout this analysis. Actuarial judgment has been applied wherever necessary to model various aspects of the Fund's claim handling processes.
This analysis is based upon claim reimbursement and financial information obtained from the Fund staff. Although the specific claim reimbursement data has not been audited, the Fund staff has provided amended data where it was found that the information was found to be inaccurate.
In estimating the Fund's claim reimbursement liabilities, reasonable procedures and standard actuarial techniques and methodologies have been applied. Projected reimbursement liabilities (reserves) are, by their very nature, subject to errors of estimation as ultimate liabilities are affected by events and conditions that have not yet occurred. It is assumed that historical loss patterns are generally good indicators of future loss payment patterns. Because of the limitation of the underlying historical data and the uncertainty of the statistical elements associated with forecasting, an actuary cannot guarantee that these estimates will prove to be adequate or not excessive.
2
Contents of the update
Since the initial Analysis of Liabilities of the Georgia Subsequent Injury Trust Fund which was performed as of December 31, 2004, the Georgia statutes relating to the Fund have been revised, and these revisions have included criteria that will impact upon the Fund's future liabilities and assessments.
The process used in this analysis is similar to that which has been described in the previous report. It is suggested that the reader refer to the previous report for detailed descriptions of the techniques used. The update is designed to provide information relating to the impacts of changes that have taken place since the previous report. These changes include the following:
1) 2005 General Assembly
The Official Code of Georgia was amended by adding Chapter 34-9-368, establishing June 30, 2006 as the last date of injury eligibility for reimbursements by the Fund.
As will be described, the legislation establishing June 30, 2006 as the last date of injury eligibility had a minimal effect on the current liabilities as of 6/30/2006, since the legislation only effects claims paid as a result of injuries that have not yet occurred as of this date. The effects of this legislation on future claims are substantial, and are estimated in this report.
The amendment to Chapter 34-9-368 had a significant effect on the liabilities remaining at 12/31/2020 from the previous calculation of the estimated liabilities as of that date. This effect is due to an earlier injury year eligibility termination date from 6/30/2008 to 6/30/2006.
2) 2006 General Assembly
An amendment was passed to OCGA 34-9-362 to establish time limits for employers or insurers to satisfactorily prove a claim once filed with the Subsequent Injury Trust Fund.
Amendments to OCGA 34-9-362 are expected to produce significant efficiencies in the future claim handling requirements and capabilities and in future claim number projection estimates produced for the Fund. The effect of this legislation on the current and future liabilities of the Fund, however, is expected to be minimal.
Exhibit 8 presents the number of new claims presented to the Fund for reimbursement by injury year. As may be discerned on Exhibit 8, there are substantial increases in the number of new claims presented for reimbursement in the past three
3
years that apply to injuries that occurred in all injury years, including years prior to 1980. This activity was described in the previous analysis, and is a result of substantial increased Fund claim submissions by insurance providers.
As described in the previous analysis, insurance providers, aware of the probable closure of the Fund, searched their claim files for Fund eligible claims that had not been previously submitted. It is reasonable to assume in this analysis, that those old claim files have been scoured for potential eligibility. The language of OCGA 34-9-362 will allow the Fund to eliminate from future reimbursement consideration, a large number of claims that have been held in the claim files despite no potential future payment obligations on the part of the Fund. The effects of the eligibility limiting language contained in the OCGA 34-9-362, however, are minimal on the dollars of future Fund liabilities.
Exhibit 8a indicates an estimated 12,454 new claim reimbursements that will be presented to the Fund subsequent to June 30, 2006
3) Data
The methods used by the Fund to extract the information needed for an actuarial analysis have been improved since the previous analysis. These improvements produced some changes in the underlying data and minimal changes in the estimated future Fund assessments and liabilities.
Description of the analysis
Exhibit 1 presents the information received from the Fund relating to the dollars of claims paid during each fiscal year for each injury year since 1977.
Exhibits 2 thru 6 presents the methods and calculations used to produce the factors necessary to convert the paid claims to-date by injury year to ultimate paid claims by industry year similar to the work that was performed in the previous analysis. Unlike in the previous analysis, however, the current data allows for a more direct production of estimates due to more normal patterns of anticipated future claim payments. It is believed that the spike in new claim submissions is mainly over, allowing for a more direct development of claims, and a single set of estimated future liabilities and assessments.
Current and future estimated Fund liabilities and assessments may be found on Exhibit 7, pages 1 and 2.
A description of each of the columns of data on Exhibit 7 follows:
Column 1 Fiscal Year
Exhibit 7 provides estimates by fiscal year beginning in 2006 and ending in 2070.
4
Column 2 Beginning Funds Column 2 presents the estimate of funds available to the Fund at the beginning of
the fiscal year. Column 3 Claims Paid
Column 3 presents the estimate of the dollars of claims paid during the fiscal year for all injury years. These estimates are derived from the actuarial loss development calculations. Column 4 GSITF Expenses
Column 4 presents an estimate of the expenses incurred during the fiscal year. These estimates include ongoing increases in average personnel costs coupled with regular staff reductions as the activities of the Fund decrease over time. Column 5 Investment Income
Column 5 presents the estimated investment income earned by the Fund during the fiscal year. Column 6 Assessment Received
It is assumed that 97% of the assessment made will be collected by the Fund. Although, historically, this amount has varied, the assumption that 97% of assessed funds will be collected is reasonable based on longer term Fund historical data. Column 7 Ending Funds
Ending funds in column 7 are calculated as: Ending Funds = beginning funds claims paid GSITF expenses + investment income + assessments received. Column 8 Next Year Assessment Assessments are calculated as 175% of the claims paid during the fiscal year minus the funds available to the Fund at the end of the fiscal year.
Fund Assessments are reproduced from Exhibit 7, column 8 on Table 1 which follows.
5
Future Estimated Assessments
Table 1
year
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
Fiscal year end unfunded liability
$970,528,309 $853,721,245 $736,647,145 $633,483,905 $546,940,531 $476,739,228 $419,472,870 $372,105,765 $332,389,145 $298,435,648 $269,108,896 $243,499,693 $221,361,614 $202,206,862 $186,145,091 $172,887,850 $162,491,297 $154,808,061 $149,431,756 $145,943,123 $143,655,663 $141,676,685 $139,601,205 $137,394,404 $134,991,153 $132,358,454 $129,383,721 $125,984,976 $122,175,556 $119,312,062 $113,431,594 $106,949,788 $100,658,624
assessment
$165,958,714 $118,720,037
$91,439,086 $66,683,252 $60,621,822 $44,704,890 $34,844,410 $29,905,657 $26,446,637 $23,893,986 $21,417,173 $19,432,201 $17,280,892 $15,115,515 $12,841,446 $10,028,706
$7,787,755 $5,500,326 $5,793,468 $6,925,916 $6,095,302 $5,610,778 $5,716,908 $6,042,320 $5,998,849 $5,601,898 $5,529,671 $5,470,010 $5,411,060 $5,352,451 $5,294,178 $4,936,503 $4,863,178
year
year end unfunded liability
assessment
2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 2051 2052 2053 2054 2055 2056 2057 2058 2059 2060 2061 2062 2063 2064 2065 2066 2067 2068 2069 2070
$94,558,102 $88,648,220 $82,928,980 $77,400,382 $72,062,424 $66,915,108 $61,958,434 $57,192,400 $52,617,008 $48,232,258 $44,038,148 $40,034,680 $36,221,853 $32,599,668 $29,168,124 $25,927,221 $22,876,960 $20,017,340 $17,348,361 $14,870,024 $12,582,328 $10,485,273
$8,578,860 $6,863,088 $5,337,957 $4,003,468 $2,859,620 $1,906,413 $1,143,848
$571,924 $190,641
$0
$4,800,853 $4,739,150 $4,677,746 $4,358,310 $4,283,935 $4,219,040 $4,154,681 $4,090,580 $3,804,099 $3,728,819 $3,661,709 $3,595,061 $3,528,634 $3,270,556 $3,194,495 $3,125,476 $3,056,855 $2,988,425 $2,754,825 $2,678,092 $2,607,427 $2,537,106 $2,466,950 $2,254,444 $2,177,132 $2,105,049 $2,033,263 $1,961,618 $1,767,293 $1,124,339
$221,832 $460,005
The current (as of 6/30/2006) unfunded liabilities of the Fund are estimated to be $970,528,309 (see Exhibit 7, top row, labeled 2006)
Future assessment options
At the request of the GSITF Board, I have presented Exhibit 9 which presents two separate Future Assessments and Liabilities Proposals. These proposals, which will require statutory language changes to initiate, are presented so that the Board may be prepared to negotiate the dissolution of the Fund prior to 2070; the time when all Fund
6
liabilities are estimated to be satisfied under the current Georgia statutes. These proposals prepare the Fund for initiating a transfer of its future liabilities to a third party or back to the insurance providers. Such a transfer may require that the Fund have available a sum of money necessary to interest a third party in taking over the responsibilities associated with the Fund's obligations from a specific point forward. Once such a transfer takes place, virtually all Fund expenses from that date forward will be eliminated.
Each of the two proposals is designed in the same manner to allow for such a transfer at different times. These proposals contemplate increases in the assessments levied over time in order to amass enough funds to equal the unfunded liabilities of the GSTF at the time of the anticipated liability transfer plus enough in excess of the actual liabilities to cover the expenses associated with the transfer.
It is important to note that the negotiations held at the time of transfer will also consider the future value of the Fund's liabilities at the time of transfer, and this consideration may result in remaining assets in the Fund following a transfer. There has been no attempt made in this analysis to estimate the negotiated terms and conditions (i.e. anticipated discount and interest rates, commissions, future expenses, etc.) of such a transfer.
It is highly recommended that, whenever reimbursements are transmitted from the Fund to insurance providers, regardless of when those reimbursements are transmitted, that the insurance provider incurred losses be appropriately reduced for those received reimbursements. The reduction of insurer incurred losses for all Fund reimbursements received by the insurer is necessary in order that the intended recipients of the benefits of the Fund's operations are the actual recipients of those benefits.
Proposal A -
Under Proposal A, future Fund assessments would be established at a rate equal to the current assessment rate or $25,000,000; whichever is greater. As can be seen on Exhibit 9, under proposal A, at the end of fiscal year 2026, it is estimated that there would be enough funds available under this proposal to seek out an entity to take over the liabilities at that time or to negotiate Fund termination with providers at that time.
Proposal B-
Under Proposal B, future Fund assessments would be established at a rate equal to the current assessment rate or $41,000,000; whichever is greater. As can be seen on Exhibit 9, under proposal B, at the end of fiscal year 2020 (the year of statutory Fund termination), it is estimated that there would be enough funds available under this proposal to seek out an entity and to negotiate a portfolio transfer or to negotiate Fund termination at that time.
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EXHIBITS
Exhibit 1 Dollars of Claims Paid by Injury Year Exhibit 2 Cumulative Paid Exhibit 3 Year-to-Year Factors Exhibit 4 Year-to-Year from 1986 Exhibit 5 Historical Development Exhibit 6 Ultimate Paid Exhibit 7 - Future Assessments and Liabilities Exhibit 8 - Initial Claims by Received Date Exhibit 8a - Number of Claims Still to be Presented Exhibit 9 - Future Assessments & Liabilities Alternative Proposals
8
Exhibit 1 page 1 Dollars of Claims Paid by Injury Year Source: GSITF Claim Files
inj yr
1979 1980
1981
1982
1977
14,500 45,075
1978
1979
92,114
63,710
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Grand Total
92,114
0
78,210 45,075
1983 71,198
8,333
79,531
1984 22,180
39
22,219
1985 12,864
12,864
1986 8,364 7,360
11,390
27,114
1987 34,773 3,632 0
130,683
169,088
1988 11283 3430 62940
77653
1989 96,341
115,569 76,834 61,198 7106 51,270 46,907 10,000
465,225
1990 40,565
272,389 351,300 339,042 666,459 817,371 1,073,840 1,425,110 2,669,521 4,166,135 6,064,836 5,202,185 2,611,387 306,882
26,007,022
1991 88,457 164,321 322,910 452,800 454,141 816,142 839,823 1,435,768 2,516,985 2,839,862 4,485,652 6,836,004 5,540,950 3,194,656 207,557
1992 39,012
139,236 331,395 201,281 425,083 661,151 760,476 1,052,140 1,436,760 2,081,264 4,150,767 6,604,505 7,118,535 6,739,871 2,849,055
68,969
1993 35,737
120,483 280,765 431,938 418,411 412,925 708,764 874,342 1,495,682 2,335,924 3,237,181 6,105,529 7,196,006 9,194,712 6,506,846 2,479,614
67,112
30,196,028 34,659,500 41,901,971
9
Exhibit 1- page 2
Dollars of Claims Paid by Injury Year
Source: GSITF Claim Files
inj yr 1994
1995
1996
1997
1977 1978 1979
54,494 148,718 303,174
25,996 117,310 144,943
21,978 170,314 203,517
16,354 85,281 248,457
1980 1981 1982
310,674 375,383 461,474
273,932 352,804 553,814
206,343 334,899 317,712
272,565 179,616 278,584
1983 1984 1985
749,924 541,221 1,310,050
968,673 701,533 659,788
496,986 610,329 1,344,487
478,141 565,346 1,015,659
1986 1987 1988
1,816,691 2,827,496 6,263,822
1,603,600 2,660,387 4,813,456
1,187,349 2,091,900 3,889,313
1,437,168 1,355,713 3,439,660
1989 1990 1991
6,496,457 9,608,715 10,762,611
6,737,110 9,471,777 12,375,409
4,727,805 6,747,233 12,295,163
3,947,799 4,694,025 7,287,131
1992 1993 1994
5,673,012 1,649,225
152,157
10,306,977 5,792,615 1,686,540
10,750,785 10,177,689
7,140,153
9,817,934 10,787,565 10,278,047
1995 1996 1997
30,599
1,961,555 13,576
5,889,039 1,521,899
68,200
1998 1999 2000
2001 2002 2003
2004
2005
Grand Total
49,505,298
59,277,263
64,689,086
63,664,183
1998 13,622 61,202
161,804 159,667 345,369 272,042 679,115 629,894 773,316 1,121,967 1,255,311 2,551,927 2,731,856 3,339,057 6,828,386 6,339,887 8,344,937 9,875,979 10,027,163 6,690,788 1,670,624
17,756
63,891,669
1999 10,326 52,690
144,913 217,780 237,054 304,347 343,542 343,906 812,599 495,474 1,080,784 1,997,040 2,065,596 2,812,516 4,570,898 5,856,692 6,799,948 9,210,972 12,711,221 13,365,595 10,257,709 2,114,847
52,018
75,858,467
2000 15,030
107,811 132,783 121,546 174,836 255,914 258,392 360,151 971,548 794,124 840,498 1,593,779 1,236,137 2,549,703 4,439,567 3,165,721 4,228,633 6,394,641 10,679,898 10,836,312 12,911,768 8,171,351 1,835,253
12,685
72,088,081
2001 9,142
130,264 76,657
145,624 207,044 184,112 290,611 268,200 660,992 799,920 703,121 1,324,136 1,227,774 2,025,425 2,159,109 2,766,176 3,249,819 4,294,270 6,293,800 8,675,320 12,924,782 11,607,664 7,491,264 2,298,318
62,912
69,876,456
2002 7,309
55,075 387,009 177,785 285,983 229,259 372,007 338,519 834,150 717,509 783,554 2,063,367 1,522,714 2,193,033 2,865,096 3,901,278 3,279,234 4,071,241 5,905,361 7,046,555 11,925,280 15,353,230 13,437,193 8,526,564 1,890,410
29,858
88,198,573
2003 3,555
74,381 207,021 114,985 148,330 195,947 345,881 138,999 586,133 715,427 1,019,643 1,046,689 1,363,392 1,445,006 2,331,864 2,812,444 2,576,505 2,862,925 4,185,140 5,314,842 8,241,564 11,791,489 14,935,144 14,297,023 9,273,370 2,476,882
28,642
88,533,223
2004
29,894 186,239
95,697 142,947 266,252 305,585 179,523 607,502 593,468 740,528 830,868 1,012,664 1,300,622 2,192,725 2,755,554 2,389,285 1,690,396 3,249,565 5,358,669 8,134,053 9,380,208 15,536,402 19,011,605 16,165,957 7,936,349 1,188,819
29,045
101,310,421
2005
35,144 283,382 116,413 139,840 194,211 179,957 199,827 589,619 373,929 626,591 763,409 1,263,879 1,635,456 1,922,324 1,273,367 1,057,091 1,772,803 3,050,228 5,544,817 6,339,787 8,995,016 14,574,663 14,146,632 21,275,450 19,372,467 8,342,372 1,112,460
115,181,134
2006 12,959 81,865 81,574 51,898 97,700
308,480 133,929 155,743 655,618 306,798 465,546 580,826 986,631 1,525,281 1,467,577 2,922,946 1,787,821 2,185,856 2,278,987 3,124,241 6,613,396 7,615,775 11,404,010 15,182,998 19,311,942 22,593,356 19,858,571 8,853,683 1,036,040
131,682,047
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Exhibit 2- page 1
cumulative paid
Source: GSITF Claim Files
Injury Year
1979 1980 1981
1977
14,500
1978
1979 92,114
155,824
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
1982 59,575
155,824
1983 130,773
155,824 8,333
1984 152,953
155,824 8,333 39
1985 152,953
155,824 8,333 39
12,864
1986 152,953
155,824 16,697 7,399 24,254
1987 152,953
190,597 16,697 7,399 27,886
130,683
1988
152953 0
201880 16697 7399 31316
130683 62940
1989
249,294 115,569 278,714
16,697 7,399
92,514 7,106
130,683 114,210
46,907 10,000
1990
289,859 387,958 630,014 355,739 673,858 909,885 1,080,946 1,555,793 2,783,731 4,213,042 6,074,836 5,202,185 2,611,387 306,882
1991
378,316 552,279 952,924 808,539 1,127,999 1,726,027 1,920,769 2,991,561 5,300,716 7,052,904 10,560,488 12,038,189 8,152,337 3,501,538 207,557
1992
417,328 691,515 1,284,319 1,009,820 1,553,082 2,387,178 2,681,245 4,043,701 6,737,476 9,134,168 14,711,255 18,642,694 15,270,872 10,241,409 3,056,612
68,969
1993
453,065 811,998 1,565,084 1,441,758 1,971,493 2,800,103 3,390,009 4,918,043 8,233,158 11,470,092 17,948,436 24,748,223 22,466,878 19,436,121 9,563,458 2,548,583
67,112
11
Exhibit 2- page 2
cumulative paid
Source: GSITF Claim Files
1994
1995
1977
507,559
533,555
1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985
960,716 1,868,258 1,752,432 2,346,876 3,261,577 4,139,933 5,459,264 9,543,208
1,078,026 2,013,201 2,026,364 2,699,680 3,815,391 5,108,606 6,160,797 10,202,996
1986 1987 1988 1989
13,286,783 20,775,932 31,012,045 28,963,335
14,890,383 23,436,319 35,825,501 35,700,445
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
29,044,836 20,326,069
8,221,595 1,716,337
152,157
38,516,613 32,701,478 18,528,572
7,508,952 1,838,697
30,599
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
1996
555,533 1,248,340 2,216,718 2,232,707 3,034,579 4,133,103 5,605,592 6,771,126 11,547,483 16,077,732 25,528,219 39,714,814 40,428,250 45,263,846 44,996,641 29,279,357 17,686,641 8,978,850 1,992,154
13,576
1997
571,887 1,333,621 2,465,175 2,505,272 3,214,195 4,411,687 6,083,733 7,336,472 12,563,142 17,514,900 26,883,932 43,154,474 44,376,049 49,957,871 52,283,772 39,097,291 28,474,206 19,256,897 7,881,193 1,535,475
68,200
1998
585,509 1,394,823 2,626,979 2,664,939 3,559,564 4,683,729 6,762,848 7,966,366 13,336,458 18,636,867 28,139,243 45,706,401 47,107,905 53,296,928 59,112,158 45,437,178 36,819,143 29,132,876 17,908,356 8,226,263 1,738,824
17,756
1999
595,835 1,447,513 2,771,892 2,882,719 3,796,618 4,988,076 7,106,390 8,310,272 14,149,057 19,132,341 29,220,027 47,703,441 49,173,501 56,109,444 63,683,056 51,293,870 43,619,091 38,343,848 30,619,577 21,591,858 11,996,533 2,132,603
52,018
2000
610,865 1,555,324 2,904,675 3,004,265 3,971,454 5,243,990 7,364,782 8,670,423 15,120,605 19,926,465 30,060,525 49,297,220 50,409,638 58,659,147 68,122,623 54,459,591 47,847,724 44,738,489 41,299,475 32,428,170 24,908,301 10,303,954 1,887,271
12,685
2001
620,007 1,685,588 2,981,332 3,149,889 4,178,498 5,428,102 7,655,393 8,938,623 15,781,597 20,726,385 30,763,646 50,621,356 51,637,412 60,684,572 70,281,732 57,225,767 51,097,543 49,032,759 47,593,275 41,103,490 37,833,083 21,911,618 9,378,535 2,311,003
62,912
2002
627,316 1,740,663 3,368,341 3,327,674 4,464,481 5,657,361 8,027,400 9,277,142 16,615,747 21,443,894 31,547,200 52,684,723 53,160,126 62,877,605 73,146,828 61,127,045 54,376,777 53,104,000 53,498,636 48,150,045 49,758,363 37,264,848 22,815,728 10,837,567 1,953,322
29,858
2003
630,871 1,815,044 3,575,362 3,442,659 4,612,811 5,853,308 8,373,281 9,416,141 17,201,880 22,159,321 32,566,843 53,731,412 54,523,518 64,322,611 75,478,692 63,939,489 56,953,282 55,966,925 57,683,776 53,464,887 57,999,927 49,056,337 37,750,872 25,134,590 11,226,692 2,506,740
28,642
2004
630,871 1,844,938 3,761,601 3,538,356 4,755,758 6,119,560 8,678,866 9,595,664 17,809,382 22,752,789 33,307,371 54,562,280 55,536,182 65,623,233 77,671,417 66,695,043 59,342,567 57,657,321 60,933,341 58,823,556 66,133,980 58,436,545 53,287,274 44,146,195 27,392,649 10,443,089 1,217,461
29,045
2005
630,871 1,880,082 4,044,983 3,654,769 4,895,598 6,313,771 8,858,823 9,795,491 18,399,001 23,126,718 33,933,962 55,325,689 56,800,061 67,258,689 79,593,741 67,968,410 60,399,658 59,430,124 63,983,569 64,368,373 72,473,767 67,431,561 67,861,937 58,292,827 48,668,099 29,815,556 9,559,833 1,141,505
2006
643,830 1,961,947 4,126,557 3,706,667 4,993,298 6,622,251 8,992,752 9,951,234 19,054,619 23,433,516 34,399,508 55,906,515 57,786,692 68,783,970 81,061,318 70,891,356 62,187,479 61,615,980 66,262,556 67,492,614 79,087,163 75,047,336 79,265,947 73,475,825 67,980,041 52,408,912 29,418,404 9,995,188 1,036,040
12
Exhibit 3 - page 1 year to year factors
Injury Year
1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
1979
1.000
1980
1981
1.000 1.000
1982
4.109 1.000
1983
2.195 1.000
1984
1.170
1.000 1.000
1985
1.000
1986
1.000
1.000 1.000 1.000
1.000 2.004 189.718 1.885
1987
1.000
1.223 1.000 1.000 1.150
1988
1.000
1.059 1.000 1.000 1.123
1.000
1989 1990
1.630
1.381 1.000 1.000 2.954
1.000 1.815
1.163 3.357 2.260 21.306 91.074 9.835 152.117 11.905 24.374 89.817 607.484
1991
1.305 1.424 1.513 2.273 1.674 1.897 1.777 1.923 1.904 1.674 1.738 2.314 3.122 11.410
1992
1.103 1.252 1.348 1.249 1.377 1.383 1.396 1.352 1.271 1.295 1.393 1.549 1.873 2.925 14.727
1993
1.086 1.174 1.219 1.428 1.269 1.173 1.264 1.216 1.222 1.256 1.220 1.328 1.471 1.898 3.129 36.953
13
Exhibit 3 - page 2 year to year factors
Injury Year
1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
1994 1995
1.120 1.183 1.194 1.215 1.190 1.165 1.221 1.110 1.159 1.158 1.158 1.253 1.289 1.494 2.125 3.226 25.574
1.051 1.122 1.078 1.156 1.150 1.170 1.234 1.129 1.069 1.121 1.128 1.155 1.233 1.326 1.609 2.254 4.375 12.084
1996 1997
1.041 1.158 1.101 1.102 1.124 1.083 1.097 1.099 1.132 1.080 1.089 1.109 1.132 1.175 1.376 1.580 2.355 4.883 65.105
1.029 1.068 1.112 1.122 1.059 1.067 1.085 1.083 1.088 1.089 1.053 1.087 1.098 1.104 1.162 1.335 1.610 2.145 3.956 113.102
1998 1999
1.024 1.046 1.066 1.064 1.107 1.062 1.112 1.086 1.062 1.064 1.047 1.059 1.062 1.067 1.131 1.162 1.293 1.513 2.272 5.357 25.496
1.018 1.038 1.055 1.082 1.067 1.065 1.051 1.043 1.061 1.027 1.038 1.044 1.044 1.053 1.077 1.129 1.185 1.316 1.710 2.625 6.899 120.106
2000 2001
1.025 1.074 1.048 1.042 1.046 1.051 1.036 1.043 1.069 1.042 1.029 1.033 1.025 1.045 1.070 1.062 1.097 1.167 1.349 1.502 2.076 4.832 36.281
1.015 1.084 1.026 1.048 1.052 1.035 1.039 1.031 1.044 1.040 1.023 1.027 1.024 1.035 1.032 1.051 1.068 1.096 1.152 1.268 1.519 2.127 4.969 182.184
2002
1.012 1.033 1.130 1.056 1.068 1.042 1.049 1.038 1.053 1.035 1.025 1.041 1.029 1.036 1.041 1.068 1.064 1.083 1.124 1.171 1.315 1.701 2.433 4.690 31.048
2003
1.006 1.043 1.061 1.035 1.033 1.035 1.043 1.015 1.035 1.033 1.032 1.020 1.026 1.023 1.032 1.046 1.047 1.054 1.078 1.110 1.166 1.316 1.655 2.319 5.747 83.955
2004
1.000 1.016 1.052 1.028 1.031 1.045 1.036 1.019 1.035 1.027 1.023 1.015 1.019 1.020 1.029 1.043 1.042 1.030 1.056 1.100 1.140 1.191 1.412 1.756 2.440 4.166 42.506
2005
1.000 1.019 1.075 1.033 1.029 1.032 1.021 1.021 1.033 1.016 1.019 1.014 1.023 1.025 1.025 1.019 1.018 1.031 1.050 1.094 1.096 1.154 1.274 1.320 1.777 2.855 7.852 39.301
2006
1.021 1.044 1.020 1.014 1.020 1.049 1.015 1.016 1.036 1.013 1.014 1.010 1.017 1.023 1.018 1.043 1.030 1.037 1.036 1.049 1.091 1.113 1.168 1.260 1.397 1.758 3.077 8.756
14
Exhibit 4 year to year from 1986
1986 1987 1988 1989
86
1.00 1.00 1.00
87
1.00 1.00
88
1.00
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
1990 89.82 607.48
1.00 0.00
1991 1.67 1.74 2.31 3.12 11.41
1992 1.30 1.39 1.55 1.87 2.92 14.73
1993 1.26 1.22 1.33 1.47 1.90 3.13 36.95
1994 1.16 1.16 1.25 1.29 1.49 2.13 3.23 25.57
1995 1.12 1.13 1.16 1.23 1.33 1.61 2.25 4.37 12.08
1996 1.08 1.09 1.11 1.13 1.18 1.38 1.58 2.36 4.88 65.11
1997 1.09 1.05 1.09 1.10 1.10 1.16 1.34 1.61 2.14 3.96 113.10
1998 1.06 1.05 1.06 1.06 1.07 1.13 1.16 1.29 1.51 2.27 5.36 25.50
1999 1.03 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.08 1.13 1.18 1.32 1.71 2.62 6.90 120.11
2000 1.04 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.05 1.07 1.06 1.10 1.17 1.35 1.50 2.08 4.83 36.28
2001 1.04 1.02 1.03 1.02 1.03 1.03 1.05 1.07 1.10 1.15 1.27 1.52 2.13 4.97 182.18
2002 1.03 1.03 1.04 1.03 1.04 1.04 1.07 1.06 1.08 1.12 1.17 1.32 1.70 2.43 4.69 31.05
2003 1.03 1.03 1.02 1.03 1.02 1.03 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.08 1.11 1.17 1.32 1.65 2.32 5.75 83.96
2004 1.03 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.04 1.03 1.06 1.10 1.14 1.19 1.41 1.76 2.44 4.17 42.51
2005 1.02 1.02 1.01 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.03 1.05 1.09 1.10 1.15 1.27 1.32 1.78 2.86 7.85 39.30
2006 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.04 1.03 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.09 1.11 1.17 1.26 1.40 1.76 3.08 8.76
15
Exhibit 5 - historical development
dev
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
1-2 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.00 11.41 14.73 36.95 25.57 12.08 65.11 113.10 25.50 120.11 36.28 182.18 31.05 83.96 42.51 39.30
2-3 1.00 1.00 1.00 3.12 2.92 3.13 3.23 4.37 4.88 3.96 5.36 6.90 4.83 4.97 4.69 5.75 4.17 7.85 8.76
3-4 0.00 607.48 2.31 1.87 1.90 2.13 2.25 2.36 2.14 2.27 2.62 2.08 2.13 2.43 2.32 2.44 2.86 3.08
4-5 89.82
1.74 1.55 1.47 1.49 1.61 1.58 1.61 1.51 1.71 1.50 1.52 1.70 1.65 1.76 1.78 1.76
5-6 1.67 1.39 1.33 1.29 1.33 1.38 1.34 1.29 1.32 1.35 1.27 1.32 1.32 1.41 1.32 1.40
6-7 1.30 1.22 1.25 1.23 1.18 1.16 1.16 1.18 1.17 1.15 1.17 1.17 1.19 1.27 1.26
7-8 1.26 1.16 1.16 1.13 1.10 1.13 1.13 1.10 1.10 1.12 1.11 1.14 1.15 1.17
8-9 1.16 1.13 1.11 1.10 1.07 1.08 1.06 1.07 1.08 1.08 1.10 1.10 1.11
9-10 1.12 1.09 1.09 1.06 1.05 1.07 1.05 1.06 1.05 1.06 1.09 1.09
10-11 1.08 1.05 1.06 1.04 1.05 1.03 1.07 1.05 1.03 1.05 1.05
11-12 1.09 1.05 1.04 1.03 1.03 1.04 1.05 1.04 1.03 1.04
12-13 1.06 1.04 1.03 1.02 1.04 1.03 1.04 1.02 1.04
13-14 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.02 1.03 1.02 1.03
14-15 1.04 1.02 1.04 1.03 1.02 1.02 1.04
15-16 1.04 1.03 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02
16-17 1.03 1.03 1.02 1.02 1.02
17-18 1.03 1.02 1.01 1.02
18-19 1.03 1.02 1.01
19-20 1.02 1.01
20-21 1.01
ave 10 73.91 5.72 2.44 1.65 1.33 1.19 1.13 1.08 1.07 1.05 1.04 1.04 1.03 1.03 1.02 1.03 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.01
ave 5 med 10
75.80 53.81
6.24 5.16
2.62 1.73 1.35 1.21 1.14 1.09 1.07 1.05 1.04 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.02 1.03 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.01 2.38 1.68 1.32 1.17 1.13 1.08 1.06 1.05 1.04 1.04 1.03 1.03 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.01
med 5 42.51 5.75 2.44 1.76 1.32 1.19 1.14 1.10 1.06 1.05 1.04 1.04 1.03 1.03 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.01
5 hi lo 55.25 6.10 2.58 1.74 1.34 1.21 1.14 1.09 1.07 1.05 1.04 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.02 1.03 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.01
all ave 60.25 5.79 2.49 1.71 1.33 1.19 1.13 1.09 1.07 1.05 1.04 1.04 1.03 1.03 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.01
select 55.25 6.00 2.50 1.73 1.34 1.20 1.14 1.09 1.07 1.05 1.04 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.02 1.03 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.01
cumul. 4051 73.32 12.22 4.89 2.83 2.11 1.76 1.55 1.42 1.34 1.27 1.22 1.18 1.15 1.12 1.10 1.07 1.05 1.03 1.01
16
Exhibit 6 - Ultimate paid
injury year
1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
*adjusted
paid at 6/30/2006
$643,830 $1,961,947 $4,126,557 $3,706,667 $4,993,298 $6,622,251 $8,992,752 $9,951,234 $19,054,619 $23,433,516 $34,399,508 $55,906,515 $57,786,692 $68,783,970 $81,061,318 $70,891,356 $62,187,479 $61,615,980 $66,262,556 $67,492,614 $79,087,163 $75,047,336 $79,265,947 $73,475,825 $67,980,041 $52,408,912 $29,418,404 $9,995,188 $1,750,000*
$15,000*
development to 2070
1.001 1.005 1.008 1.012 1.015 1.019 1.024 1.028 1.033 1.037 1.048 1.067 1.091 1.116 1.149 1.177 1.215 1.253 1.301 1.356 1.427 1.527 1.670 1.902 2.290 3.079 5.329 13.366 80.458 4460.344
ultimate
$644,474 $1,971,765 $4,160,892 $3,749,842 $5,068,130 $6,750,413 $9,206,219 $10,231,263 $19,675,045 $24,300,524 $36,048,459 $59,665,957 $63,040,123 $76,794,591 $93,153,871 $83,461,925 $75,586,503 $77,180,807 $86,184,071 $91,547,717 $112,865,829 $114,631,123 $132,407,087 $139,764,129 $155,684,269 $161,363,039 $156,760,969 $133,592,052 $140,802,305 $66,905,155
17
Exhibit 7 page 1 Future Assessments and Liabilities
cal year
funds at beginning of year
claims paid in year
GSITF expenses
investment income
assessment funds at received year end
assessment for next year
unfunded liabilities at 6/30 fiscal yr end
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040
$64,022,264 $57,977,063 $95,570,861 $100,264,118 $95,335,724 $78,937,034 $70,605,311 $58,927,971 $47,068,604 $37,617,051 $30,301,896 $25,135,337 $20,981,778 $17,844,694 $15,261,814 $13,065,810 $11,540,008
$9,613,306 $7,800,185 $5,083,479 $3,096,040 $3,071,664 $2,701,197 $2,098,098 $1,633,739 $1,538,262 $1,796,265 $1,729,544 $1,650,258 $1,570,260 $1,489,921 $1,409,247 $1,627,974 $1,562,351 $1,485,729
$127,963,301 $122,451,942 $109,544,688
$92,582,272 $79,747,918 $65,891,544 $53,584,218 $43,985,292 $36,607,821 $30,969,075 $26,601,435 $23,093,702 $20,071,763 $17,358,474 $14,804,146 $12,324,980
$9,943,463 $7,600,292 $6,215,398 $5,726,832 $5,238,266 $4,749,700 $4,465,718 $4,386,319 $4,306,920 $4,227,522 $4,148,123 $4,068,724 $3,989,326 $3,909,927 $3,830,528 $3,751,129 $3,671,731 $3,592,332 $3,512,933
$2,393,827 $2,429,734 $2,466,180 $2,503,173 $2,540,720 $2,320,948 $2,355,762 $2,391,099 $2,426,965 $2,463,370 $2,125,272 $2,157,151 $2,189,509 $2,222,351 $2,255,687 $1,831,617 $1,859,092 $1,886,978 $1,915,283 $1,944,012 $1,578,538 $1,602,216 $1,626,249 $1,650,643 $1,675,402 $1,360,427 $1,380,833 $1,401,546 $1,422,569 $1,443,907 $1,465,566 $1,190,040 $1,207,890 $1,226,009 $1,244,399
$1,258,706 $1,495,521 $1,545,690 $1,461,137 $1,207,195 $1,077,601
$898,896 $717,947 $574,746 $464,052 $382,982 $322,636 $274,953 $235,480 $201,779 $174,593 $148,008 $120,026
$78,660 $63,742 $74,289 $69,006 $46,413 $27,202 $25,796 $27,069 $28,394 $27,202 $25,987 $24,767 $23,542 $24,544 $25,591 $24,436 $23,260
$123,053,221 $160,979,953 $115,158,435
$88,695,914 $64,682,754 $58,803,168 $43,363,743 $33,799,077 $29,008,487 $25,653,238 $23,177,166 $20,774,658 $18,849,235 $16,762,465 $14,662,050 $12,456,202
$9,727,845 $7,554,122 $5,335,316 $5,619,664 $6,718,139 $5,912,443 $5,442,455 $5,545,400 $5,861,050 $5,818,883 $5,433,841 $5,363,781 $5,305,910 $5,248,728 $5,191,878 $5,135,352 $4,788,408 $4,717,282 $4,656,827
$57,977,063 $95,570,861 $100,264,118 $95,335,724 $78,937,034 $70,605,311 $58,927,971 $47,068,604 $37,617,051 $30,301,896 $25,135,337 $20,981,778 $17,844,694 $15,261,814 $13,065,810 $11,540,008
$9,613,306 $7,800,185 $5,083,479 $3,096,040 $3,071,664 $2,701,197 $2,098,098 $1,633,739 $1,538,262 $1,796,265 $1,729,544 $1,650,258 $1,570,260 $1,489,921 $1,409,247 $1,627,974 $1,562,351 $1,485,729 $1,408,483
$165,958,714 $118,720,037
$91,439,086 $66,683,252 $60,621,822 $44,704,890 $34,844,410 $29,905,657 $26,446,637 $23,893,986 $21,417,173 $19,432,201 $17,280,892 $15,115,515 $12,841,446 $10,028,706
$7,787,755 $5,500,326 $5,793,468 $6,925,916 $6,095,302 $5,610,778 $5,716,908 $6,042,320 $5,998,849 $5,601,898 $5,529,671 $5,470,010 $5,411,060 $5,352,451 $5,294,178 $4,936,503 $4,863,178 $4,800,853 $4,739,150
$970,528,309 $853,721,245 $736,647,145 $633,483,905 $546,940,531 $476,739,228 $419,472,870 $372,105,765 $332,389,145 $298,435,648 $269,108,896 $243,499,693 $221,361,614 $202,206,862 $186,145,091 $172,887,850 $162,491,297 $154,808,061 $149,431,756 $145,943,123 $143,655,663 $141,676,685 $139,601,205 $137,394,404 $134,991,153 $132,358,454 $129,383,721 $125,984,976 $122,175,556 $119,312,062 $113,431,594 $106,949,788 $100,658,624
$94,558,102 $88,648,220
18
Exhibit 7 page 2 Future Assessments and Liabilities
cal year
funds at beginning of year
claims paid in year
GSITF expenses
investment assessment funds at
income
received year end
assessment for next year
unfunded liabilities at 6/30 fiscal yr end
2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 2051 2052 2053 2054 2055 2056 2057 2058 2059 2060 2061 2062 2063 2064 2065 2066 2067 2068 2069 2070
$1,408,483 $1,330,940 $1,511,428 $1,446,855 $1,372,803 $1,298,214 $1,223,368 $1,370,900 $1,307,233 $1,235,396 $1,163,096 $1,090,575 $1,209,705 $1,146,818 $1,076,890 $1,006,563
$936,045 $1,030,698
$968,483 $900,200 $831,574 $762,782 $836,340 $774,705 $707,840 $640,679 $573,375 $628,752 $775,074 $794,788
$3,433,535 $3,354,136 $3,274,737 $3,195,339 $3,115,940 $3,036,541 $2,957,143 $2,877,744 $2,798,345 $2,718,947 $2,639,548 $2,560,149 $2,480,751 $2,401,352 $2,321,953 $2,242,555 $2,163,156 $2,083,757 $2,004,359 $1,924,960 $1,845,561 $1,766,162 $1,686,764 $1,607,365 $1,527,966 $1,448,568 $1,369,169 $1,085,379
$580,926 $350,923
$1,263,065 $1,025,608 $1,040,993 $1,056,608 $1,072,457 $1,088,543
$883,897 $897,156 $910,613 $924,272 $938,136 $761,767 $773,193 $784,791 $796,563 $808,511 $656,511 $666,359 $676,354 $686,500 $696,797 $565,799 $574,286 $582,901 $591,644 $600,519 $487,621 $494,936 $502,360 $509,895
$22,080 $22,819 $23,597 $22,477 $21,339 $20,198 $20,710 $21,256 $20,167 $19,062 $17,954 $18,271 $18,617 $17,554 $16,478 $15,398 $15,548 $15,722 $14,681 $13,629 $12,574 $12,578 $12,604 $11,583 $10,552
$9,519 $9,398 $12,361 $12,390 $4,963
$4,596,976 $4,537,414 $4,227,561 $4,155,417 $4,092,469 $4,030,041 $3,967,862 $3,689,976 $3,616,954 $3,551,857 $3,487,209 $3,422,775 $3,172,439 $3,098,660 $3,031,712 $2,965,149 $2,898,773 $2,672,180 $2,597,749 $2,529,204 $2,460,993 $2,392,941 $2,186,811 $2,111,818 $2,041,898 $1,972,265 $1,902,770 $1,714,275 $1,090,609
$215,177
$1,330,940 $1,511,428 $1,446,855 $1,372,803 $1,298,214 $1,223,368 $1,370,900 $1,307,233 $1,235,396 $1,163,096 $1,090,575 $1,209,705 $1,146,818 $1,076,890 $1,006,563
$936,045 $1,030,698
$968,483 $900,200 $831,574 $762,782 $836,340 $774,705 $707,840 $640,679 $573,375 $628,752 $775,074 $794,788 $154,110
$4,677,746 $4,358,310 $4,283,935 $4,219,040 $4,154,681 $4,090,580 $3,804,099 $3,728,819 $3,661,709 $3,595,061 $3,528,634 $3,270,556 $3,194,495 $3,125,476 $3,056,855 $2,988,425 $2,754,825 $2,678,092 $2,607,427 $2,537,106 $2,466,950 $2,254,444 $2,177,132 $2,105,049 $2,033,263 $1,961,618 $1,767,293 $1,124,339
$221,832 $460,005
$82,928,980 $77,400,382 $72,062,424 $66,915,108 $61,958,434 $57,192,400 $52,617,008 $48,232,258 $44,038,148 $40,034,680 $36,221,853 $32,599,668 $29,168,124 $25,927,221 $22,876,960 $20,017,340 $17,348,361 $14,870,024 $12,582,328 $10,485,273
$8,578,860 $6,863,088 $5,337,957 $4,003,468 $2,859,620 $1,906,413 $1,143,848
$571,924 $190,641
$0
19
EXHIBIT 8
Initial Claims by Received Date inj yr 1977 1978 1979
1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
2
55
33
71
165
1
101
1980
8 46 218 125
1981
5 12 74 264 163
1982
2 5 15 84 297 203
1983
3 2 5 15 80 321 186
1984
1 5 5 20 89 306 204
1985
1 1 2 5 16 95 355 224
1986
2 1 2 3 3 17 99 419 323 2
1987
1 1 2 3 2 6 15 122 429 348
1988
1
2 4 8 24 132 526 440
1989
1 1 8 13 32 186 806 651
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
1
2
1
1
1
1
2
1
2
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
2
3
3
2
1
4
1
3
1
4
2
3
1
9
3
1
1
3
2
1
1
8
11
14
5
5
3
1
1
2
37
19
11
8
5
5
5
3
1
1
3
232
63
33
17
10
4
9
2
6
1
1
3
926
342
83
18
21
13
13
2
4
2
1
2
891 1,333
356
88
38
20
15
7
9
1
5
4
1,171 1,509
354
101
49
36
10
4
3
5
2
1,440 1,540
374
134
66
24
16
8
9
5
1,836 1,945
482
131
28
24
11
14
8
2,249 2,252
492
129
26
27
21
17
2,748 2,242
447
85
54
24
19
3,174 2,182
434
110
47
32
3,285 2,311
460
127
85
3,948 2,600
503
193
4,254 2,888
742
4,550 3,477
5,171
2002
1
1 3
1
2
1 2 5 3 4 2 5 21 14 33 54 94 209 813 4,010 6,256
2003 1
1 1
1 1
2 1 1 1 3 5 3 9 15 15 42 51 138 295 961 4,699 9,319
2004
1 2 1 4 3 2 4 3 5 5 2 5 1 3 10 9 15 9 18 15 22 20 18 14 26 19 47 57 83 160 319 1,110 5,377 10,959
2005 1
1
1
1 1 2 1 1 2 4 3 1 3 5 3 1
3 5 8 12 9 21 30 66 106 215 860 5,294 10,138
2006
1
1 2
2 2
1 1 1 2 5 3 8 6 8 9 15 5 13 7 14 14 19 19 47 41 82 220 861 5,904 6,949
20
Exhibit 8a - Number of Claims Still to be Presented
calendar year
number at 6/06
development factor
1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
116 311 435 509 585 652 631 715 842 983 1,182 1,650 2,113 2,797 3,283 3,658 4,513 5,275 5,689 6,073 6,434 7,488 8,363 9,408 10,608 12,362 15,776 17,114 16,045 6,951
1.000 1.003 1.006 1.011 1.012 1.013 1.016 1.018 1.019 1.021 1.024 1.027 1.029 1.029 1.028 1.027 1.026 1.024 1.023 1.021 1.019 1.018 1.018 1.018 1.020 1.025 1.035 1.058 1.160 1.897
152,561
ultimate
number
116 312 438 515 592 660 641 728 858 1,003 1,210 1,695 2,175 2,878 3,376 3,758 4,631 5,403 5,819 6,200 6,558 7,625 8,514 9,573 10,823 12,669 16,335 18,107 18,617 13,186
165,015
still to come
0 1 3 6 7 8 10 13 16 20 28 45 62 81 93 100 118 128 130 127 124 137 151 165 215 307 559 993 2,572 6,235
12,454
21
Exhibit 9 Future Assessments and Liabilities Alternative Proposals
calendar unfunded year liabilities at yr end
assessment additional
received
funds
proposal A received
assessment received proposal B
additional funds received
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
912,124,777 795,184,195 685,065,525 590,212,218 511,839,879 448,106,049 395,789,317 352,247,455 315,412,396 283,772,272 256,304,294 232,430,654 211,784,238 194,175,976 179,516,470 167,689,574 158,649,679 152,119,908 147,687,439 144,799,393 142,666,174
123,053,221 160,979,953 115,158,435
88,695,914 64,682,754 58,803,168 43,363,743 33,799,077 29,008,487 25,653,238 25,000,000 25,000,000 25,000,000 25,000,000 25,000,000 25,000,000 25,000,000 25,000,000 25,000,000 25,000,000 25,000,000
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,836,505 6,121,084 12,409,796 20,895,260 31,624,174 44,736,412 60,794,154 79,282,788 100,284,200 121,314,152 141,552,839
123,053,221 160,979,953 115,158,435
88,695,914 64,682,754 58,803,168 43,363,743 41,000,000 41,000,000 41,000,000 41,000,000 41,000,000 41,000,000 41,000,000 41,000,000
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7,254,930 19,880,499 36,833,399 57,552,409 82,245,872 110,731,208 143,455,365 180,750,002
Note: when the additional funds under the alternative proposal equal the unfunded liabilities under the current assessment procedure, assessments will no longer be needed.
22
CHARTS Chart 1 - Cumulative Paid / Cumulative Ultimate Chart 2 - Unfunded Liabilities
23
2,200,000,000 2,000,000,000 1,800,000,000 1,600,000,000 1,400,000,000 1,200,000,000 1,000,000,000
2006
2016
CHART 1
cumulative paid cumulative ultimate
2026
2036
2046
2056
2066
24
1,000,000,000 900,000,000 800,000,000 700,000,000 600,000,000 500,000,000 400,000,000 300,000,000 200,000,000 100,000,000 0
2006
chart 2 unfunded liabilities
2016
2026
2036
25
2046
2056
2066