Analysis of liabilities of the Georgia Subsequent Injury Trust Fund, including analysis of current liabilities, analysis of future liabilities, future assessment activity, future opened claims activity [2005]

Analysis of Liabilities Of the
Georgia Subsequent Injury Trust Fund
Including
Analysis of Current Liabilities Analysis of Future Liabilities Future Assessment Activity Future Opened Claims Activity
Prepared by Martin M. Simons ACAS, MAAA, FCA
Public Actuarial Consultant

Foreword In accordance with legislative directives issued in HB 1579 by the 2004 General Assembly, the Subsequent Injury Trust Fund contracted with Martin M. Simons, to prepare an "Analysis of Liabilities". The study includes an analysis of current liabilities, future liabilities, future assessment activity, and future open claims activity. This report is hereby submitted to the 2005 General Assembly. Questions may be directed to: Richard W. McGee, Administrator Subsequent Injury Trust Fund 1720 Peachtree Street, Suite 500 Atlanta, GA 30309-2462 (404) 206-6355 Rmcgee@sitf.ga.gov
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.........................................................................................................5
INTRODUCTION.....................................................................................................................6
PROCESSES .......................................................................................................................... 9
Claim Reimbursement Development Injury Year Basis...................................................10 Claim Reimbursement Estimates Subsequent to 12/31/2003 ............................................13 Claim Reimbursement Development Received Year Basis.............................................16 Future Unpaid Liability Estimations....................................................................................18 Future Assessment Estimations.........................................................................................19 Future Open Claim Estimations .........................................................................................21
CLOSING NOTES.................................................................................................................24
EXHIBIT GUIDE....................................................................................................................25
Exhibit 1- Claim Payments by Injury Date, Page 1 .........................................................26 Exhibit 1- Claim Payments by Injury Date, Page 2 .........................................................27 Exhibit 2- Cumulative Claim Payments by Injury Date, Page 1.......................................28 Exhibit 2- Cumulative Claim Payments by Injury Date, Page 2.......................................29 Exhibit 3 - Historical Development Factors by Injury Date, Page 1 .................................30 Exhibit 3 - Historical Development Factors by Injury Date, Page 2 .................................31 Exhibit 4 Injury Year-to-Year Development Factors, Page 1........................................32 Exhibit 4 Injury Year-to-Year Development Factors, Page 2........................................33 Exhibit 5 - Calculation of Unpaid Claims by Injury Date..................................................34 Exhibit 6a - Cumulative Payments (2007 2020) - Assumption 1, Page 1 .....................35 Exhibit 6a - Cumulative Payments (2007 2020) - Assumption 1, Page 2 .....................36 Exhibit 6b - Cumulative Payments (2007-2020) Assumption 2, Page 1 .......................37 Exhibit 6b - Cumulative Payments (2007-2020) Assumption 2, Page 2 .......................38 Exhibit 6c - Cumulative Payments (2007-2020) Selected, Page 1...............................39 Exhibit 6c - Cumulative Payments (2007-2020) Selected, Page 2...............................40 Exhibit 7 Claim Payments by Year (2009-2020) ..........................................................41 Exhibit 8 Claim Payments by Received Date, Page 1..................................................42 Exhibit 8 Claim Payments by Received Date, Page 2..................................................43 Exhibit 9 Cumulative Claim Payments by Received Date, Page 1...............................44 Exhibit 9 Cumulative Claim Payments by Received Date, Page 2...............................45 Exhibit 10 Historical Development Factors by Received Date, Page 1 ........................46 Exhibit 10 Historical Development Factors by Received Date, Page 2 ........................47 Exhibit 11 Received Year-to-Year Development Factors, Page 1................................48 Exhibit 11 Received Year-to-Year Development Factors, Page 2................................49 Exhibit 12 Calculation of Unpaid Claims by Received Date .........................................50 Exhibit 13 Future Assessments (2008-2020)...............................................................51 Exhibit 14 Number of Claims by Injury Date ................................................................52 Exhibit 15 Cumulative Number of Claims by Injury Date..............................................53 Exhibit 16 Number of Claims by Injury Date Development........................................54 Exhibit 17 Estimate of Opened Claims through 2003...................................................55 Exhibit 18 Estimate of Opened Claims through 2020...................................................56 Exhibit 19 Claim Payments by Accepted Date, Page 1................................................57 Exhibit 19 Claim Payments by Accepted Date, Page 2................................................58
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Exhibit 20 Claim Payments by Assigned Year.............................................................59 Exhibit 21 Re-opened Claims ......................................................................................60 Exhibit 22 Financial Information ..................................................................................61 Exhibit 23 - Assessment Information ..............................................................................62 Exhibit 24 Opened Claims with Payment.....................................................................63 CHART GUIDE .....................................................................................................................64 Chart 1 Paid and Ultimate Claims by Injury Year.........................................................65 Chart 2a Ultimate Claim Trend by Injury Year (1993-2003) ......................................66 Chart 2b Ultimate Claims by Injury Year (20032007).................................................67 Chart 2c- Selected Ultimate Claims by Injury Year (2003-2007).....................................68 Chart 3 Estimated Unpaid Claims (2007 2020).........................................................69 Chart 4 Paid and Ultimate Reimbursements through 2020..........................................70 Chart 6 Cumulative Paid to Ultimate (2007 2020).....................................................72 Chart 7 Subsequent Year Assessments (2008 2020) ...............................................73 Chart 8 Open Claims (2004 2020)............................................................................74 Chart 9 Open Claims with Payment (2004 2020)......................................................75
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Listed below is a summary of the major conclusions of the actuarial study. A detailed description of the process, as well as the resulting conclusions, is presented within the main document.
Unpaid Reimbursement Liabilities (See page 18)
The unpaid reimbursement liabilities of the Georgia Subsequent Injury Trust Fund as of 12/31/2004 are equal to approximately $1,050,322,907.
The unpaid reimbursement liabilities of the Georgia Subsequent Injury Trust Fund as of 12/31/2020 are estimated to be approximately $279,146,897.
It is expected that there will continue to be unpaid liabilities in the Fund beyond the year 2070. (See Note page 20)
Opened Claims (Exhibit 18)
It is estimated that the Fund has 20,423 open claims as of 12/31/2004; approximately 3,300 of those claims have had at least one payment.
It is estimated that the Fund will have 25,089 open claims as of 12/31/2020; approximately 3,925 of those claims will have had at least one payment.
It is estimated that the Fund will continue to have open claims beyond the year 2070.
Fund Operating Expenses (Exhibit 13)
Fund operating costs for the year 2008 are estimated to be $2,200,000.
Fund operating costs for the year 2020 are estimated to be $1,324,353.
Operating expenses are estimated to continue at approximately the 2020 level of $1,300,000 until the number of opened claims reaches a minimal number; estimated to be around the year 2035 2040.
Assessments (Exhibit 13)
Amounts assessed, based upon 2007 payments (assessed during 2008) are estimated to be $118,797,000.
Amounts assessed, based upon 2020 payments (assessed during 2021) are estimated to be $31,969,544.
It is estimated that the Fund will have a cash balance of $16,699,729 on December 31, 2020, and that the liabilities for future reimbursements on that date will be $279,146,897.
Under current Georgia statutory language, the necessity of Fund assessments will continue beyond the year 2070.
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INTRODUCTION
During the 2004 legislative session, lawmakers passed HB 1579 providing for the dissolution of the Georgia Subsequent Injury Trust Fund. It provides that the Fund shall not accept for reimbursement those claims with a date of injury occurring after June 30, 2008; provides that insurers shall continue to be assessed in order to meet reimbursement liabilities; and provides that the Fund and its Board of Trustees shall be terminated no later than December 31, 2020.
Martin Simons was retained by The Georgia Subsequent Injury Trust Fund to provide an actuarial estimate of the Fund's reimbursement liabilities as of December 2004, and to present certain expectations relative to liabilities, assessments, and other criteria at significant dates June 30, 2008, the last date of injury on acceptable claims; and December 31, 2020, the termination date of the Fund and its Board of Trustees. These estimates include amounts payable and assessable by the Fund under the current laws of the State of Georgia.
This report fulfills all the requirements of the Actuarial Standards Board of the American Academy of Actuaries and other relevant criteria promulgated by actuarial bodies governing actuarial reports. Standard actuarial techniques have been used throughout this analysis. Actuarial judgment has been applied wherever necessary to model various aspects of the Fund's claim handling processes. An attempt has been made to disclose all such methods, databases, judgments, assumptions and techniques.
This analysis is based upon claim reimbursement and financial information obtained from agency staff. Although the specific claim reimbursement data has not been audited, agency staff has provided amended data where it was found that the information was suspect or found to be inaccurate.
The Fund's staff was also helpful in explaining the probable reasons behind anomalies and apparent anomalies in the year-by-year results. The responses from the staff to specific questions relative to the claim reimbursement data were insightful and helpful in the completion of the steps necessary in arriving at the analysis results. In addition, the review of over 150 individual claim reimbursement files (in physical and electronic formats) provided assurances relative to the accuracy of the data used as well as the reasonableness of the results. Some data was determined to be inappropriate for use in these calculations. While some adjustments in methodologies were necessary (due mainly to inconsistent early data) it is believed that, in light of the specific analytical processes used, the underlying problems and anomalies that were found in the claim reimbursement data will not have an appreciable impact upon the resulting accuracy of the projections and future estimates derived in this analysis.
Please note that a great deal of valuable information can be gleaned from an understanding of the process used in this analysis. Descriptions of current and future Fund activities are an integral part of this analysis, and a review of these descriptions will provide valuable information relative to the future management of the Fund.
In estimating the Fund's claim reimbursement liabilities, reasonable procedures and standard actuarial techniques and methodologies have been applied. Projected reimbursement liabilities (reserves) are, by their very nature, subject to errors of estimation as ultimate liabilities are affected by events and conditions that have not yet occurred. It is assumed that historical loss patterns are generally good indicators of future loss payment patterns. Because of the limitation
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of the data supplied and the uncertainty of the statistical elements associated with forecasting, an actuary cannot guarantee that these estimates will prove to be adequate or not excessive.
Before the Fund can reimburse an employer, a disabled worker must suffer a subsequent injury. This injury combines with or aggravates the prior impairment, thus causing liability substantially greater than that which would have occurred from the subsequent injury alone. A major purpose of the Fund is to provide protections to disabled employment seekers by providing protection to the employer who hires those with disabilities and pre-existing impairments.
The Georgia Subsequent Injury Trust Fund operates on an annual cash flow basis. The Fund is not required to establish reserves for future claim reimbursements. Funding is on a continuing basis through equitable assessments upon each insurance provider, including insurers as well as individual and group self-insured employers. While the cash flow basis of operation eliminates the requirement that the Fund establish and maintain reserves, the liabilities associated with future claim reimbursements remain, and it is these liabilities that are determined in the loss development portions of this analysis.
The term "unpaid reimbursements" when used in this analysis refers to the amount of funds that would be required to pay all remaining claim reimbursements accepted by the Fund or that will be submitted to and accepted by the Fund for claims related to injuries that occurred prior to the date of the calculations. If the Fund were required to maintain reserves for unpaid reimbursements, this value would be used to determine the amount of such reserves.
The claim data collected by the Fund has been separated into the following four major categories:
1. By injury date the date of the workplace accident
2. By received date the date the Fund received the request for reimbursement
3. By accepted date the date the Fund agreed that the claim was a reimbursable claim
4. By assigned date the date the claim was assigned to staff for reimbursement
Claim files are organized both physically and electronically in a manner that allows for ease of historical claim payment review at any time during the life of a specific claim. Specific computer screens permit an analyst to review specific claims whenever additional information is needed. A review of these files provided additional evidence of the extremely long tail that is referenced throughout this analysis. The review also provided insights into the periodic reimbursements made by the Fund, including an understanding of the lack of homogeneity of such payments relative to specific claims.
Requests were made for data relative to each of the four claim file categories described above. Virtually all the information that was requested from the Fund has been received; however, some of the data was found to lack the underlying criteria necessary for use in appropriately estimating future claim reimbursements. Despite any such problems, the data provided by the Fund was sufficient to produce credible estimates of those future liabilities.
The process, as described in detail, also contains several disclosures and a detailed description of the techniques, data sources, assumptions, and methods used to derive the resulting estimates.
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Disclosure: The claim files that were reviewed as a part of this analysis procedure indicate that individual claim files include vastly different and extremely erratic individual claim payment activities. Individual claim reimbursements vary by claim type as well as by payment year during the life of specific claims. Insurers and self-insurers have not presented the Fund with payment requests on a regular basis, but have periodically and somewhat sporadically submitted reimbursement requests to the Fund. In addition, in recent years there has been a significant increase in the submission of initial and ongoing reimbursement requests for very early claims (i.e. prior to 1985). The opened claim files include a significant number of claims for which it is unknown whether there will be future payments or not. Claims are opened and re-opened on an equally erratic basis. The use of individual claim file information provides a less than adequate basis for projecting future reimbursements. The processes used in this analysis rely very minimally on the review of individual claim files that was performed for this project. The review of individual claim files did, however, provide insights into the reasons for the extremely long tail of claim reimbursements - mainly, that claims are reimbursed by the Fund throughout the life of the claimant. There is no limit relative to reimbursements other than the life of the individual injured workers. In addition, there appears to be no time limit, based strictly on the date of the injury, for claims to be submitted to the Fund for reimbursement.
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PROCESSES
Numerical information referenced in this part of the analysis may be found in the Exhibit section following this narrative. There are 24 separate exhibits in the Exhibit section covering input data, methods, formulae and procedures used to derive each of the estimates provided. Several of these exhibits cover more than one page.
Graphical representations of relevant results are referenced throughout this analysis. These graphical representations may be found in the Charts section. There are nine charts providing visual presentations of past, current, and future trends and temporal movements in the Fund statistics.
Specific Exhibits and Charts are identified and referenced throughout this narrative section to provide assistance to those who wish to review this analysis in detail or to perform an independent analysis using alternative methods, data bases, assumptions, techniques, or methodologies.
Disclosure:
Information has been provided by the Fund staff relative to this analysis in four separate formats (by injury-date, by reported-date, by accepted-date, and by assigned-date). The basis of this analysis is in the use of the injury-year statistics. The received-year statistics are utilized as a means to determine whether the injury-year statistics produce results that are reasonable in relation to the two separate data sources. Due to internal changes throughout the historical period, the injury-date and received-date statistics have been influenced to a far lesser degree than either of the other data bases by shifts in the pattern of claim reimbursement payments caused by those changes. The accepted-year and assigned-year data have been determined to be unsuitable for analysis due to changes in the time between an injury and the Fund's requirement for reimbursements throughout the history of the Fund. The injury-year statistics, while also influenced by changes in Fund practices, have been used to as great an extent as is practical, while the received-year statistics are used to validate the results derived from those injury-date statistics.
a. Information received for each of the four provided databases (whether used directly or indirectly or unused in the analysis) has been included in the exhibits section of this analysis to assist in the review of the methods, assumptions, techniques and results of the analysis.
b. Injury-year statistics were determined to be the most useful in estimating the behavior of Fund claim reimbursement activity beyond 6/30/08, since the termination of the Fund's claim acceptances will be based upon the date of injury.
c. Received-year statistics were used to provide a means of verification that the results produced by the injury-year statistics were reasonable.
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Claim Reimbursement Development Injury Year Basis
A major part of an actuarial analysis of this type includes a process known as loss development. In the case of the Fund, losses are the reimbursements paid by the Fund to insurers and selfinsured groups and employers. Loss development is a technique whereby actuarial and statistical techniques are used to estimate future reimbursements based upon patterns of past experience. In this analysis the term "loss development" is interchangeable with "reimbursement development".
The information contained on Exhibit 1 was requested of and provided by the Fund. Claim reimbursements are separated according to the calendar-year date of the injury and the calendar-year date of the payment of claims by the Fund. For example, a claim reimbursement that is paid in 1990 for an injury that occurred in 1985 will be included in the row labeled 1985, and the column labeled 1990. As shown in Exhibit 1, page 1, a total of $2,649,221 was reimbursed in 1990 for claims that occurred in 1985. This information provides the basis for all calculations performed in this portion of the analysis.
On Exhibit 2 each row (from Exhibit 1) is accumulated across the columns. In other words, the value in the 1985 row and the 1990 column includes the accumulation of all claim reimbursements paid for injuries that occurred in 1985 through the end of 1990 (that is, payments made in 1985, `86, `87, `88, `89 and `90 for injuries that occurred in 1985). As shown in Exhibit 2, page 1, a total of $2,763,431 was paid at the end of 1990 for claims that occurred in 1985.
On Exhibit 3 the information from Exhibit 2 is used to determine, the change in the cumulative amount of claim reimbursements that occurs from one calendar year to the next calendar year for each injury-year of claim reimbursements. As shown in Exhibit 3, page 2, reading across the row labeled 1985, to the number 1.069 (under the column labeled 1995); this indicates that between 1994 and 1995, the cumulative dollars of claim reimbursements for injury-year 1985 grew by 6.9%. This information for each injury-year provides the basis for an analysis of the pattern of claim reimbursement payments throughout the life of the Fund. This process is known as loss development. The history of past claim reimbursements is generally an excellent indicator of the expectations of future claim reimbursement activity. Calculations performed throughout the analysis determine that injury-year loss development provides an excellent estimating technique relative to future Fund claim reimbursements. The process builds the annual reimbursements from the year of the injury until the year where all payments have been made for that specific injury-year. The total amount of claim payments made for a specific injuryyear is called the "ultimate" claims for that injury-year. As is evident on Exhibit 3, there are still reimbursements being paid by the Fund for all injury-years since the Fund's inception. The "ultimate" claims have not yet been reached, and future payments will be made for each injuryyear of the Fund's existence.
On Exhibit 4 the ratios calculated on Exhibit 3 are used to create future loss development factors (that is, factors to project the past and current payment activities to estimate future Fund claim reimbursement activity). Several averages are calculated relative to each of the historical loss development calculations (that is, the changes shown on Exhibit 3 in paid reimbursements between the 2nd calendar year for the injury-year data to the 1st calendar year, between the 3rd and 2nd, the 4th and 3rd, etc. for each injury-year). This process continues until all of the reimbursements applicable to a specific injury year have been paid. The final calculation produces the "ultimate" claim reimbursements for the injury-year.
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Several averages are calculated or are considered in determining how the future loss developments will occur as related to the past and current developments. As shown in Exhibit 4, the 10-year average, the 5-year average, and the 5-year average excluding the highest and lowest factor of the 5 are indicated at the bottom of each column. These averages are used to help determine the appropriate factors to apply to the current claim reimbursements by injuryyear to arrive at an estimate of the ultimate claim reimbursements by injury-year.
In this analysis, for the more recent time periods (subsequent to 1989), the average found to be most appropriate for estimating future development was generally the five-year average, excluding the highest and lowest factor for each five-year period. This calculation produces a three-year average using the "middle" three historical factors out of the past five years for each injury-year. The use of this specific statistic provides a means to minimize the effects from any aberrant individual annual factors. There are a few exceptions, where a more detailed analysis has determined that the unadjusted five year average or other factor (such as the most recent development factor) is considered to be more appropriate. The resulting selected factors may be seen on the exhibit in the rows labeled "selected". The other calculated averages (i.e. the 10year and 5-year averages) provide evidence that the selected average is reasonable. This process may include a review of individual year experience.
During the analysis, it was determined that it was not appropriate to utilize the same loss development criteria for all injury-years, due to substantial differences in the pattern of claim reimbursements payments in some early Fund injury-years. The loss development factors that will be used in this analysis are those that are contained on the row labeled "selected" on Exhibit 4 for each of three separate historical calculation periods:
Prior to 1984 1984 1989 1990 and subsequent
Disclosure:
The claim reimbursement history of the Fund indicates that there is an extremely long tail relative to claim reimbursement payments. Substantial amounts of claim reimbursement activity are still present, for example, during calendar year 2004 relative to claims that were reported to the Fund during and prior to 1981. In many cases, the only limitations relative to the length of time for which the fund is responsible for claim reimbursements are tied to the length of the life of the claimant. In addition, the effects of this extremely long tail are more evident in the earliest years of Fund claim reimbursement activity. Included in the analysis of the ultimate claim reimbursements (i.e. the total reimbursements that will be paid for each respective injury-year) are methods to account for the long claim reimbursement payment tail.
Earlier years are more heavily influenced by the long tail, due, it appears, to several reasons, including the following:
I. The earliest years were more greatly influenced by the long tailed claims due to the low number of claims in the early years, and the resulting greater percentage impact upon the individual year results of long tailed claims.
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II. Legislation passed in 1992 appears to have had a moderate impact upon the length of the tail of the post 1992 claim reimbursement activity.
III. During the life of the Fund, the percentage of employees involved in manufacturing employments has decreased. Manufacturing employment has a greater potential for longterm serious injuries than the clerical and information-technology related employments that have generally replaced it. Hence, the impact on Fund experience of permanent and long-term injuries decreases as time progresses and manufacturing employment is replaced by employment in the clerical and information technology fields.
IV. Workplace safety measures have impacted upon the frequency of accidents, and have resulted in a decrease in the number of severe permanent partial and permanent total claims relative to the total number of claims. These decreases have produced a lower percentage of claims that include "lifetime" payments in the more recent years and this effect is present in virtually all employment types.
V. Settlement activity (i.e. agreements relative to large or one-time payments) appears to have been used to a greater extent as the Fund has matured.
Exhibit 5 calculates the unpaid Fund reimbursements for each injury-year, valued as of 12/31/2003. Column (1) presents the amounts of reimbursements paid thru 12/31/03 by the Fund for each injury-year. Column (2) presents the loss development factors for each injuryyear. These loss development factors are the results of the calculations performed on Exhibits 1 through 4, as described previously.
Column (3) on Exhibit 5 presents the ultimate reimbursements by injury-year. The ultimate reimbursements represent the total reimbursements that will be made by the Fund after all of the reimbursement responsibilities have been completed for that specific injury-year. These ultimate reimbursements are calculated by multiplying the paid-to-date (at 12/31/2003) reimbursements in column (1) by the reimbursement development factors in column (2) for each injury-year. Column (4) presents the reimbursements for which the Fund is responsible after December 31, 2003. This is calculated by subtracting the amounts already paid at 12/31/2003 from the amounts that will ultimately be paid for each injury-year.
Disclosure:
The 2004 statistics provided by the Fund were incomplete since the data was prepared, and the analysis was performed, prior to the completion of the 2004 calendar year. The basis, therefore, of this analysis is a determination of the Fund's liabilities as of December 31, 2003. Projections are made from the 12/31/03 date to fulfill the "future liability" requirements of the project, including the estimate of Fund liabilities as of 12/31/2004.
Exhibit 5 indicates that as of 12/31/2003, the Fund has paid out $61,157,387 for claims where the injury occurred in 1995. Multiplying by the loss development factor of 1.544 (across the 1995 row) the ultimate dollars of claims to be paid by the Fund for injury-year 1995 when all injuryyear 1995 claims are paid will be $94,438,958 (across the 1995 row). The result is that as of 12/31/2003, there is an additional $33,281,571 for which the Fund will be responsible after 12/31/2003 for claims on injuries that occurred in 1995. (The ultimate claims minus the claims already paid equals the claims still to be paid.)
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Graphical representation:
A graphical representation of the paid and ultimate claim reimbursements information from Exhibit 5 may be found on Chart 1. The lighter bars on the left portray the amount of reimbursements paid by the Fund thru 12/31/03 for each injury year from the Fund's inception. The darker bars on the right portray the reimbursements that the Fund will ultimately pay for each injury year. As can be seen on Chart 1, the majority of the claim reimbursements that will ultimately be paid have already been paid relative to the earliest years, while only an extremely small portion of the ultimate claim reimbursements have been paid in the later injury-years.
The differences in height between the light and dark bars on Chart 1 represent the amounts that remain to be paid for that specific injury year as of 12/31/03. It is especially interesting to note that despite the fact that the bar representing 1981 and prior injury-year relates to claims that occurred at least 23 ago, there remains an appreciable amount of claim reimbursements for those very early years that are still to be paid. This phenomenon will be described at length throughout this analysis. It is evident when viewing the early years of experience on Chart 1, that the claim payment tail (the length of time between the injury-year and the year in which all claims will ultimately be paid for that injury-year) is extremely long for the Georgia Subsequent Injury Trust Fund.
The unpaid reimbursement liabilities of the Georgia Subsequent Injury Trust Fund as of 12/31/2003 are equal to $984,200,174. (See Exhibit 5)
Claim Reimbursement Estimates Subsequent to 12/31/2003
The determination of the estimated cumulative reimbursements paid for years beyond 2003 is presented on Exhibits 6a and 6b. The information on these two exhibits is then averaged to produce the estimated cumulative reimbursements by injury-year on Exhibit 6c.
These separate exhibits present the estimated cumulative reimbursements for years beyond 2003 under two separate assumptions relative to future claim reimbursement request activity.
Assumption #1 (Exhibit 6a) There has been an inordinate amount of reimbursement request activity submitted to the Fund in the very latest years, especially during calendar year 2004, but to some extent since calendar year 2002. This activity is assumed to be due primarily to an effort on the part of insurers (and perhaps self-insurers) to search their claim files for all cases that may be reimbursable. Assumption #1 treats this abnormal increase in claim reimbursements as an anomaly. Under assumption #1, this activity is expected to decrease and return to normal levels in a moderately short period of time.
Under assumption #2, this increased reimbursement submission activity is expected to continue for a longer time period than that which is assumed under assumption #1. Reimbursements under assumption #2 are expected to be greater than under assumption #1. This is accomplished using a non-linear estimation relative to future reimbursements.
In each of the Exhibits 6a, 6b, and 6c, the cumulative ultimate reimbursements for years prior to injury-year 2004 are unaffected by the assumptions regarding future reimbursement submissions. Only those estimates applicable to injury-year 2004 and later are impacted by the assumptions described above.
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The first column to the right of the "injury-years" column on Exhibit 6a (page 1) contains the estimated cumulative ultimate reimbursements by injury-year from 2004 through 2020 under assumption #1. These future injury year ultimate reimbursements are derived by calculating a linear trend from the ultimate reimbursements for the years 1993 thru 2003. This period was selected to allow for inclusion of the long-term trend in ultimate reimbursements while recognizing that the later years (years subsequent to 1993) are generally more indicative of current and future trends in the amount of ultimate reimbursements by injury-year. This method appropriately estimates the future reimbursements in accordance with assumption #1, above.
Graphical representation:
A graphical representation of the linear trend calculation used to derive the estimated future reimbursements under assumption #1 may be found on Chart 2a. The gray diamonds on Chart 2a portray the ultimate reimbursements calculated as described above for the years from 1993 through 2003. The solid black line represents the linear trend line that is derived from those individual ultimate reimbursements. The trend line formula and the related r-squared value are printed on the Chart.
y = 6.8302x-13534, where y is the ultimate reimbursements (in millions of dollars) for injury-year x, and
r2 = .947
The remaining columns on Exhibit 6a contain the amounts of cumulative reimbursements paid as of December 31st of each calendar year (across) for each injury-year (down) under assumption #1. These reimbursement amounts by calendar year are calculated by applying the loss development factors (presented on Exhibit 5) to each specific future injury-year. For example, referring to the bottom number under the column labeled "12/31/2011" the number $1,848,449,961, there will be a total of $1,848,449,961 in reimbursements paid at the end of 2011. The individual numbers in the column labeled "12/31/2011" indicated how much of the $1,848,449,961 will be paid as of 12/31/2011 for each specific injury-year. For example, the underlined number $90,019,627 appears in the column labeled 12/31/2011 in the row labeled 1991. This indicates that at 12/31/2011, the Fund will have paid a cumulative amount of $90,019,627 for claim reimbursements relating to injury-year 1991.
The first column to the right of the "injury-years" column on Exhibit 6b (page 1) contains the estimated cumulative ultimate reimbursements by injury-year from 2004 through 2020 under assumption #2. These future injury year ultimate reimbursements are derived by increasing future year ultimate reimbursements by amounts similar to those experienced in the most recent years. This method was selected to allow for inclusion of a longer-term impact of the recent increases in reimbursement requests. This method appropriately estimates the future reimbursements in accordance with assumption #2, above.
Graphical representation:
A graphical representation of the ultimate claim reimbursements by injury-year under assumption #2 may be found on Chart 2b. As is evident on Chart 2b, the recent increases in claim reimbursement requests are used to develop the future trends based upon assumption #2; that the recent increases will continue at their current high levels.
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The remaining columns on Exhibit 6b contain the amounts of cumulative reimbursements paid as of December 31st of each calendar year (across) for each injury-year (down) under assumption #2. These reimbursement amounts by calendar year are calculated by applying the loss development factors (presented on Exhibit 5) to each specific future injury-year. For example, referring to the bottom number under the column labeled "12/31/2011)" the number $1,964,851,009, there will be a total of $1,964,851,009 in reimbursements paid at the end of 2011. The individual numbers in the column labeled "12/31/2011" indicated how much of the $1,964,851,009 will be paid as of 12/31/2011 for each injury year. For example, the underlined number $90,019,627 appears in the column labeled 12/31/2011 in the row labeled 1991. This indicates that at 12/31/2011, the Fund will have paid a cumulative amount of $90,019,627 for claim reimbursements relating to injury-year 1991.
In order to arrive at a single estimate in light of the divergent assumptions described above, this analysis will produce estimated reimbursements as the average of the two assumptions. This process is necessary since the recent activity is greatly divergent form previous experience, and it is simply too early to tell which of the two assumptions is the most valid at this time.
Exhibit 6c presents the cumulative reimbursements as the average of those calculated under each of the two assumptions described earlier. These are referred to as "selected" estimated cumulative reimbursements. The cumulative ultimate reimbursements presented on Exhibit 6c are the selected estimated cumulative ultimate reimbursements of the Fund for the years 2004 through 2020.
Graphical representation:
A graphical representation of the "selected" or estimated future claim reimbursement ultimate levels may be found on Chart 2c. This chart presents the estimated future impacts of the increasing claim reimbursement activity as the un-weighted average of the values derived from assumptions #1 and #2.
It may be noted that in each of the Exhibits, 6a, 6b, and 6c, the underlined number remains the same since only years subsequent to 12/31/2003 are affected by the separate assumptions.
Exhibit 7 portrays the estimated reimbursements paid (column 7) and the estimated reimbursements unpaid (column 10) for each year from 2008 through 2020. The unpaid reimbursements (i.e. the amounts that the Fund is still required to pay) as of 12/31/2008 are estimated to equal $1,248,691,104. The unpaid reimbursements at 12/31/2020 (the legislated GSITF Board termination date) are estimated to be $279,146,897. These values are based upon the average of the unpaid reimbursement liabilities calculated under assumptions #1 and #2 described above.

12/31/2008 12/31/2020

Unpaid Reimbursements of the GSITF

Low estimate (Assumption #1)

High estimate (Assumption #2)

Selected estimate (Average of #1 & #2)

$1,104,843,321

$1,388,058,571

$1,246,450,946

$ 249,140,290

$ 309,153,503

$ 279,146,897

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Graphical representation:
Chart 3 presents the low, high, and selected estimate of the unpaid Fund reimbursements from 2007 through 2020.The left-hand bars present the low end of the estimated range of the unpaid reimbursements. The middle bars present the high end of the estimated range, and the righthand bars represent the middle of the range of the estimated unpaid reimbursements at each year-end. The right-hand bars (the mid-point of the range) present the estimated unpaid reimbursements.
Chart 4 presents the ultimate injury-year reimbursement needs and the payments to date as of 12/31/2020. As is evident on Chart 4, it is assumed that some of the very early injury-years have been fully developed by the end of 2020. It should be noted, however, that the estimating process may not portray each individual year as it will actually develop, but any differences between actual and estimated individual year results should have a minimal impact on the total resulting estimated unpaid claim reimbursement liabilities of the Fund as of 12/31/2020.
Claim Reimbursement Development Received Year Basis
The estimates referenced above are highly influenced by the injury-year loss development calculations that have been presented in Exhibits 1 through 5. In order to add credence to the techniques, assumptions, data and calculations that make up those injury-year loss development estimates, a similar process is presented relative to the year the claims were received by the Fund. This process provides a second loss development calculation method for producing the ultimate claim reimbursements as of 12/31/2003.
Exhibit 8 presents the information received from the Fund relative to the claim reimbursements made by the Fund for each calendar year for each received-year since the Fund's inception. This information is in the same format as that in Exhibit 1. In lieu of the injury-year data included on Exhibit 1, the Exhibit 8 data relates to the date the claim was received by the Fund, rather than the date of the injury. The process is the same.
Similarly, Exhibit 9 accumulates the received-date claim reimbursement information in the same manner as Exhibit 2 where the accumulations were based upon the injury-year data. Exhibit 9 contains the information from Exhibit 8 on a cumulative basis.
On Exhibit 10 the information from Exhibit 9 is used to determine, the change in the total number of claim reimbursements that occurs from one calendar year to the next calendar year for each received-year of claim reimbursements. Again, the process is the same as that which has been described for Exhibit 3, with the received-year data as the basis rather than the injuryyear data that was the basis for Exhibit 3.
As was performed on Exhibit 4, the ratios calculated on Exhibit 10 are used on Exhibit 11, to create future loss development factors. Several averages are calculated relative to each of the historical loss development calculations (i.e. the change in paid reimbursements between the 2nd calendar-year of the received-year data to the 1st calendar-year, and also between the 3rd and 2nd, the 4th and 3rd, etc.). In this analysis, the average believed to be most appropriate for estimating future development is the 5-year average, excluding the highest and lowest factor for each period. This process provides a means to minimize the effects from any aberrant individual yearly factors. There are a few exceptions, where a more detailed analysis has determined that another average is more appropriate. During the analysis, it was determined that it was not appropriate to utilize the same loss development criteria for all received-years, due to
16

differences in the pattern of reimbursement payments in some early received-years. Additional details are provided in the Disclosures section of this analysis.
The loss development factors that will be used in this analysis are those that are contained on the row labeled "selected" on Exhibit 11 for each of three separate calculation periods:
Prior to 1984 1984 1989 1990 and subsequent
Exhibit 12 calculates the unpaid Fund reimbursements for each injury-year, evaluated as of 12/31/2003. Column (1) presents the amounts of reimbursements paid thru 12/31/03 by the Fund for each received-year. Column (2) presents the loss development factors for each received-year. These loss development factors are the results of the calculations performed on Exhibits 8 thru 11, as described earlier. Column (3) presents the ultimate reimbursements by received-year. The ultimate reimbursements represent the total reimbursements made by the Fund after all of the reimbursements responsibilities have been completed. These ultimate reimbursements are calculated by multiplying the paid reimbursements in column (1) by the reimbursement development factors in column (2) for each received-year. Column (4) presents the reimbursements for which the Fund is responsible after December 31, 2003. This is calculated by subtracting the amounts already paid at 12/31/2003 from the amounts that will ultimately be paid for each received-year.
The unpaid Fund liabilities as of 12/31/2003, when estimated using injury-year data are equal to $984,200,174. (Exhibit 5)
The unpaid Fund liabilities as of 12/31/2003, when estimated using received-year data are equal to $988,906,639. (Exhibit 12)
While it is obvious that the process is not an exact one, the closeness of the figures derived from injury-year and received-year data adds credence to the validity of these two underlying data sources, and provides some additional confidence in the injury-year results which are used in the subsequent portions of the analysis. While these estimates are derived by "estimated" future development factors, the use of estimated factors that are reasonable have produced very similar results.
Either basis (injury-year or received-year) is appropriate for the development calculations. The injury-year data has been used as the basis of this analysis as opposed to the received-year data due to the need to provide estimates relative to future liabilities and other information that will be based upon a termination of reimbursements applicable to claims with a certain injuryyear (or prior) occurrence. The use, therefore, of injury-year data as the basis of the analysis precludes the need to adjust the results from a received-year basis to an injury-year basis.
Once again, however, the received-year data provides a check of the reasonableness of the injury-year calculations and estimates.
17

Future Unpaid Liability Estimations
At this point in this analysis, the following estimated values have been determined:
1. The unpaid reimbursement liabilities of the Georgia Subsequent Injury Trust Fund equal $984,200,174. (Exhibit 5)
2. The unpaid reimbursement liabilities of the Fund for the years 2003 through 2020, are estimated as follows:

Year end

Unpaid Reimbursements

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

$ 984,200,174 $1,050,322,907 $1,116,445,640 $1,182,568,373 $1,248,691,104 $1,246,450,946 $1,104,855,560 $ 961,481,493 $ 829,755,926 $ 718,438,036 $ 628,884,183 $ 556,115,245 $ 494,608,183 $ 441,209,473 $ 393,648,175 $ 351,032,104 $ 313,073,636 $ 279,146,897

Note: Unpaid reimbursements for the years 2004 through 2006 are calculated by linear interpolation between 2003 and 2007.

Graphical representation:
Chart 5 presents the runoff of the unpaid reimbursements between 2008 and 2020. These values are the same as the "estimated unpaid" values from Chart 3.
Chart 6 presents the cumulative ultimate reimbursements by year from 2008 through 2020. Since the injury-year data has been used to arrive at the ultimate reimbursements, the cumulative ultimate reimbursement as of 6/30/2008 when calculated on an injury-year basis represents the cumulative ultimate reimbursements throughout the remainder of the life of the Fund. No additional reimbursements will be paid on claims with injury dates subsequent to 6/30/2008. There will, however, be additional reimbursements paid following 6/30/2008, but these payments will relate only to claims with injury dates prior to 6/30/2008. Chart 6 portrays the pattern of those reimbursements relative to the cumulative ultimate reimbursements for each year from 2008 through 2020.

18

Future Assessment Estimations
The next step in the process consists of a calculation of the estimated assessment needs for each year between 6/30/2008 (injury-year cessation of reimbursement acceptance), and 12/31/2020 (Board termination date). This information is provided in Exhibit 13.
Disclosure: In estimating the assessments that will be levied between 2009 and 2020, the following assumptions were made.
A. Average annual interest rate yields are assumed to be equal to 1.6% on invested assets throughout the time period.
B. Interest income is assumed to be earned on the average of the funds held during the year. That is, income and outflow of funds are assumed to be spread equally from January 1 to December 31 for each year.
C. Miscellaneous income is assumed to be zero for all years in the period.
Miscellaneous income has historically been extremely small, causing this assumption to have virtually no impact upon the results.
Fund operating expenses are assumed to increase incrementally by 1.5% per year after a reduction in base expenses calculated by decreasing the prior year's operating expenses by a factor equal to one-half (50%) of the decrease in reimbursements paid from the first prior to the current year. That is, it is expected that a reduction in some expenses will occur as the annual reimbursements decrease, and the reduction is tied to but less than the reduction in claim reimbursement activities.

The estimated operating expenses of the Fund from 2008 through 2020 are estimated to be as follows:

Year

Estimated Fund Operating Expenses

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

$ 2,200,000 $ 2,233,000 $ 2,307,690 $ 2,264,044 $ 2,125,732 $ 1,943,993 $ 1,781,788 $ 1,664,359 $ 1,574,704 $ 1,509,608 $ 1,452,364 $ 1,392,585 $ 1,335,468

19

Following 2020, the opened claim activity will begin to decrease only moderately, and it is estimated that Fund operating expenses will remain somewhat stable for several years. Fund operating expenses will continue to be necessary to manage the run-off of claims. Operating expenses are estimated to continue at approximately the 2020 level of $1,300,000 until the number of opened claims reaches a minimal number; estimated to be around the year 2035 2040.
Note: The length of time for which there will continue to be active claim reimbursements in the Fund is contingent upon the life expectancy of the injured workers to which the last active claims apply. For example, if an eighteen-year-old individual is permanently injured on June 30, 2008 (the final injury date of Fund application), and if that injured individual lives to be eighty years of age, this claim will remain active until 2070.
Exhibit 13 presents the information used to calculate the assessments that will be imposed upon insurers and self-insured employers for the operation of the Fund if the current assessment procedure is used throughout the 2008 through 2020 period. The assessment is calculated as 175% of the first-prior year reimbursements after reducing those disbursements for the balance held by the Fund at the end of that prior year. As is shown on Exhibit 13, the estimated assessments for each year from 2008 through 2020 are as follows:

Year

Assessments for Subsequent Year

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

$ 164,666,620 $ 144,048,667 $ 148,321,475 $ 100,922,900 $ 85,125,772 $ 56,440,968 $ 57,344,841 $ 46,741,621 $ 46,061,553 $ 40,359,010 $ 37,528,461 $ 31,969,544 $ 30,147,267

Graphical Representation:

Chart 7 presents a visual depiction of the annual assessments derived in this portion of the analysis. As is evident on Chart 7, the assessments indicate a fairly substantial drop in the initial years followed by a leveling off of the decreases as the number of long tail claim reimbursements plays a more prominent role relative to the overall reimbursements.

20

Future Open Claim Estimations
Disclosure:
The estimation of future opened claim activity has been performed using the best data available at this time. Due to a lack of consistency in claims received, claims paid, claims closed and claims re-opened, this information should be viewed only as a best estimate. Users are cautioned that changes in any of the underlying reimbursement request or reimbursement payment patterns may produce differences in the resulting number of opened claims for future time periods.
Several caveats are presented below relating to the estimation of the Fund's future open claim activities:
1. There are a great many open Fund claims on which no payment has been made as of the date of this analysis.
2. There will be a significant number of opened claims as of 12/31/2020 where no payment has been made relative to the specific claim.
3. As has been described previously, it is extremely difficult to determine whether these open claims will incur future Fund reimbursements, and if so, when those reimbursements may be expected to occur.
4. Claim reimbursements that have been previously closed are frequently reopened, and reimbursements are made relating to those claims regardless of their previous closure, and regardless of whether previous reimbursements have been made on the claim.
5. Claim reimbursement closure activity is not consistent, and may occur at different intervals.
6. Claim reimbursement reopening activity is not consistent and may occur at different intervals.
7. New claim reimbursement activity is not consistent and may occur at different intervals.
8. As described earlier in this analysis, it is not known at this time how long the recent increases in claim reimbursement requests will continue.
Exhibits 14 through 16 provide loss development calculations similar to those that have been produced earlier in this analysis. On Exhibits 14 through 16, the number of claims, rather than the dollars of claims as previously calculated on Exhibits 1 through 3 and Exhibits 8 through 10, is developed by the date the claims were received by the Fund. This provides information relative to how claims are received which assists in the selection of the development factors used to derive the resulting liabilities throughout the analysis. In addition to its use in determining the estimated future open claim criteria, this information may be useful to an analyst wishing to perform an independent actuarial analysis. These exhibits readily portray the extremely long tail of claim reimbursement experience that is inherent in the Fund's operations.
21

As shown in Exhibit 14, there were a substantial number of claims with initial payments in calendar year 2003 that were received by the Fund prior to 1982. The effects of such long time periods between receipt of the claim and reimbursements play a major role in providing actuarial estimates regarding future liabilities. The resulting number of open claims as of 12/31/2020 is quite large due to the extremely long tail of claim payment activities referenced throughout this analysis. In addition, the number of Fund claims currently listed as "opened" includes a substantial number of claims for which no payment has been made. Exhibit 17 presents a calculation (based upon prior Fund experience) of the number of open claims as of 12/31/2003 and subsequently. Please note that the estimation of the number of open claims is produced using injury-year and claim closure experience, and since the claim closure activity is not consistent over time, these are best estimates given the information that is available. As described earlier in this analysis, there has been a substantial increase in the number of claims submitted (and in the subsequent number of opened claims) in calendar year 2004. Based upon the information provided by the Fund, and in light of each of the caveats listed above, Exhibit 18 presents three separate columns as follows:
1. Column (2), labeled "Opened without Board termination" presents the estimated number of opened claims remaining in the Fund at the end of each year from 2004 through 2020 if the Fund were to continue to operate as if the Board termination legislation did not exist. This information is presented for information only in order to provide a comparison that will make the final estimates more readily understood.
2. Column (3), labeled "Opened with Board Termination" presents the estimated number of claims that will be opened at the end of each year from 2004 through 2020.
3. Column (4), labeled "Opened with prior payment" includes only claims for which a reimbursement has been made by the Fund. The number of opened claims includes a substantial number of claims for which reimbursements have never been made.
The table displays an estimate of the total number of opened claims as well as the total number of opened claims where prior payments have been made (active claims) for the years 2004 through 2020.
22

(1) Year
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

(2) Opened without Board Termination
20,423 21,444 22,516 23,642 24,824 26,065 27,368 28,737 30,173 31,682 33,266 34,929 36,676 38,510 40,435 42,457 44,580

(3) Opened with Board Termination

(4) Opened with prior Payment

20,423 21,444 22,516 23,642 24,824 26,063 27,327 28,384 29,127 29,752 29,331 29,357 29,008 28,291 27,575 26,480 25,089

3,300 3,591 3,689 3,786 3,884 4,078 4,275 4,441 4,557 4,655 4,589 4,593 4,538 4,426 4,314 4,143 3,925

Graphical Representation:
Chart 8 depicts the opened claim activity for each of the above columns. This chart allows the reader to perceive the future opened claim activity under the current Board termination language in relation to the opened claim activity under normal Fund operations. The information "without Board termination" is presented strictly for illustrative purposes.
Chart 9 presents the number of opened claims where payments have been made from 1990 to the 2003. In addition, this chart presents the least squares regression line (from 1997 to 2003) used to estimate the number of such claims at the end of 2008. It should be noted that the least squares method appears to produce a larger number of future opened claims with payment than that which may be indicated by the most recent data. This method was selected due to the increased recent claim submission activity. It is assumed that this increased activity will impact somewhat on the number of opened claims with payments subsequent to 2008.
The erratic year-by-year behavior of this statistic, as is evident on Chart 9, is due in part to the caveats referred to earlier. Once again, the estimation of the future number of claims should be viewed with these caveats in mind.

23

CLOSING NOTES
The information contained in Exhibit 19 and Exhibit 20 was not used in this analysis. The information on these exhibits is related to the "accepted-date" and the "assigned-date" of Fund claims, and was found to lack the consistency necessary to produce meaningful estimates of future liabilities. It is presented here to allow an actuary performing an independent analysis or an actuary reviewing the methods, data and assumptions used in this analysis to possess the relevant information that was requested and made available in performing this analysis.
Data similar to that which is found in Exhibits 19 and 20 are also available relative to the number of claims on an accepted-year and assigned-year basis. This information as well as the corresponding claim number information by accepted-year and by assigned-year was determined to be of no direct statistical value in these calculations.
Exhibit 21, Reopened Claims, was not directly used in this analysis.
Exhibit 22, Financial Information, was used to assist in determining the estimated investment income expectations, and the estimated future assessments.
Exhibit 23, Assessment Information, was used to assist in determining the estimated future assessments.
Exhibit 24 was used in the determination of the number of future opened claims where future payments will be made from 2004 through 2020. The payment data for 2004 is incomplete due to the fact that the 2004 calendar year had not been completed when the information was obtained.
Every effort has been made throughout this analysis to present the requested estimates without any bias. There are numerous methods that are actuarially acceptable relative to an analysis of this type, and other actuaries may use different methods to arrive at results that may differ somewhat from the results of this analysis.
These estimates are made using standard accepted actuarial methods. It is understood that there are different views relative to the work performed by the Georgia Subsequent Injury Trust Fund. None of the information used in this analysis is intended to support or refute any of those views. In addition to a determined effort to eliminate bias from these projections, the analyst has attempted to make this analysis as transparent as possible relative to the data, methodologies, assumptions, techniques and conclusions that are an integral part of any analysis of this type.
The exhibits and charts accompanying this analysis provide a wealth of information relative to the functions and activities of the Georgia Subsequent Injury Trust Fund. It is the sincere hope of the author that this information will be used extensively and will provide substantial assistance relative to the future management and operations of the Fund.
Requests for additional information relative to methods, assumptions, databases, or other criteria used to produce this analysis may be directed to the analyst, Martin Simons, through the Georgia Subsequent Injury Trust Fund.
24

EXHIBIT GUIDE

EXHIBIT 1 (2 PAGES) EXHIBIT 2 (2 PAGES) EXHIBIT 3 (2 PAGES) EXHIBIT 4 (2 PAGES) EXHIBIT 5 EXHIBIT 6A (2 PAGES) EXHIBIT 6B (2 PAGES) EXHIBIT 6C (2 PAGES) EXHIBIT 7 EXHIBIT 8 (2 PAGES) EXHIBIT 9 (2 PAGES) EXHIBIT 10 (2 PAGES) EXHIBIT 11 (2 PAGES) EXHIBIT 12 EXHIBIT 13 EXHIBITS 14 THROUGH 16 EXHIBIT 17 - 18 EXHIBIT 19 (2 PAGES) EXHIBIT 20 EXHIBIT 21 EXHIBIT 22 EXHIBIT 23 EXHIBIT 24

CLAIM PAYMENTS BY INJURY DATE CUMULATIVE CLAIM PAYMENTS BY INJURY DATE HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT FACTORS BY INJURY DATE INJURY YEAR-TO-YEAR DEVELOPMENT FACTORS CALCULATION OF UNPAID CLAIMS BY INJURY DATE CUMULATIVE PAYMENTS (2007-2020) ASSUMPTION #1 CUMULATIVE PAYMENTS (2007-2020) ASSUMPTION #2 CUMULATIVE PAYMENTS (2007-2020) SELECTED CLAIM PAYMENTS BY YEAR (2008-2020) CLAIM PAYMENTS BY RECEIVED DATE CUMULATIVE CLAIM PAYMENTS BY RECEIVED DATE HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT FACTORS BY RECEIVED DATE RECEIVED YEAR-TO-YEAR DEVELOPMENT FACTORS CALCULATION OF UNPAID CLAIMS BY RECEIVED DATE FUTURE ASSESSMENTS (2008 2020) DEVELOPMENT OF NUMBER OF CLAIMS ESTIMATE OF OPENED CLAIMS THROUGH 2020 CLAIM PAYMENTS BY ACCEPTED DATE CLAIM PAYMENTS BY ASSIGNED DATE REOPENED CLAIMS FINANCIAL INFORMATION ASSESSMENT INFORMATION OPENED CLAIMS WITH PAYMENT

Exhibit 1- Claim Payments by Injury Date, Page 1

Source - GSITF Claim Files

Injury Year <=1981
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

78,210

45,075

79,531

22,219

12,864

15,724 11,390

34,773 3,632
130,683

11,283 3,430
62,940

288,744 61,198 7,106
51,270 46,907 10,000

1,705,260 805,453
1,038,260 1,425,110 2,649,221 4,017,263 6,150,052 5,201,883 2,596,293
321,976

1,487,892 803,764 834,483
1,435,768 2,517,060 4,017,263 6,150,052 5,201,883 2,596,293
321,976 207,557

3,768,711 652,923 751,701
1,052,140 1,436,760 2,081,264 4,133,570 6,566,513 7,090,651 6,723,032 2,782,699
68,969

1,294,654 407,450 701,444 874,342
1,495,682 2,288,649 3,237,181 6,096,582 7,187,486 9,190,350 6,430,751 2,537,197
67,112

26

Exhibit 1- Claim Payments by Injury Date, Page 2

Source - GSITF Claim Files

Injury

1994

1995

Year

<=1981 1,210,301 923,267

1982 453,695 549,654

1983 744,452 964,821

1984 541,221 701,533

1985 1,310,050 659,788

1986 1,816,691 1,603,600

1987 2,811,333 2,648,901

1988 6,257,644 4,802,216

1989 6,496,457 6,725,697

1990 9,589,753 9,458,722

1991 10,703,757 12,338,766

1992 5,643,788 10,306,977

1993 1,723,303 5,788,187

1994 152,157 1,686,540

1995

30,599

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

1996
1,048,404 306,520 486,309 610,329
1,344,487 1,187,349 2,076,752 3,853,938 4,720,610 6,729,062 12,290,808 10,750,785 10,076,034 7,150,608 2,066,207
13,576

1997
903,038 270,154 469,489 565,346 1,021,658 1,437,168 1,355,713 3,417,592 3,944,175 4,676,982 7,266,178 9,724,392 10,796,007 10,386,630 5,908,975 1,521,899
68,200

1998
784,731 298,545 683,979 638,156 801,029 1,212,109 1,364,962 2,803,914 2,992,020 3,700,261 7,423,895 7,097,432 9,234,680 11,232,443 11,842,928 8,001,075 2,244,681
23,458

1999
680,132 299,773 338,184 347,686 844,352 516,243 1,084,236 2,009,671 2,107,450 2,808,211 4,773,932 5,921,329 7,050,903 9,469,011 13,104,213 13,562,020 10,404,484 2,142,536
52,018

2000
590,723 255,914 275,776 372,442 1,016,343 827,600 862,590 1,594,327 1,287,434 2,696,789 4,718,804 3,364,894 4,425,546 6,530,886 10,879,469 11,086,311 13,202,060 8,283,484 1,825,023
12,685

2001
588,782 172,346 280,571 268,200 660,992 799,920 694,371 1,312,280 1,238,425 2,134,771 2,262,507 2,866,391 3,258,159 4,318,717 6,424,397 9,050,019 13,071,844 11,892,097 7,638,102 2,361,854
62,912

2002
1,094,291 237,457 378,565 340,949
1,027,777 761,662 830,478
2,107,271 1,571,401 2,236,626 3,108,335 4,009,911 3,583,221 4,173,443 6,306,964 7,464,661 12,769,455 16,647,172 14,319,960 9,151,088 2,192,299
29,858

2003
660,140 206,647 352,095 274,878 587,717 770,424 1,166,998 1,244,633 1,395,078 1,502,412 2,391,640 2,938,506 2,703,353 2,932,297 4,593,635 5,468,896 8,630,455 12,951,623 15,785,584 14,847,086 10,285,755 2,782,798
28,642

27

Exhibit 2- Cumulative Claim Payments by Injury Date, Page 1

Source - Exhibit 1 - Accumulated by Calendar-Year

Injury Year <=1981
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

78,210

123,285

202,816

225,035

225,035 12,864

240,759 24,254

275,532 27,886 0
130,683

286,815 31,315 0
130,683 62,940

575,559 92,513 7,106
130,683 114,211
46,907 10,000

2,280,819 897,967
1,045,366 1,555,792 2,763,431 4,064,170 6,160,052 5,201,883 2,596,293
321,976

3,768,711 1,701,731 1,879,848 2,991,560 5,280,492 8,081,433 12,310,104 10,403,766 5,192,585
643,952 207,557

7,537,423 2,354,654 2,631,549 4,043,700 6,717,252 10,162,698 16,443,674 16,970,279 12,283,236 7,366,984 2,990,257
68,969

8,832,077 2,762,105 3,332,993 4,918,042 8,212,933 12,451,347 19,680,855 23,066,861 19,470,722 16,557,334 9,421,008 2,606,166
67,112

28

Exhibit 2- Cumulative Claim Payments by Injury Date, Page 2

Source - Exhibit 1 -Accumulated by Calendar-Year

Injury Year <=1981
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

1994
10,042,378 3,215,800 4,077,445 5,459,263 9,522,983
14,268,038 22,492,188 29,324,505 25,967,179 26,147,088 20,124,764
8,249,954 1,790,415
154,151

1995
10,965,646 3,765,454 5,042,266 6,160,797
10,182,771 15,871,637 25,141,089 34,126,722 32,692,877 35,605,810 32,463,530 18,556,932
7,578,601 1,840,691
30,599

1996
12,014,050 4,071,974 5,528,575 6,771,126
11,527,258 17,058,986 27,217,841 37,980,660 37,413,487 42,334,872 44,754,338 29,307,717 17,654,635
8,991,298 2,096,806
13,576

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

12,917,088 4,342,128 5,998,064 7,336,472
12,548,915 18,496,155 28,573,554 41,398,252 41,357,662 47,011,854 52,020,516 39,032,108 28,450,642 19,377,928
8,005,781 1,535,475
68,200

13,701,819 4,640,674 6,682,043 7,974,628
13,349,944 19,708,263 29,938,516 44,202,166 44,349,682 50,712,115 59,444,411 46,129,540 37,685,322 30,610,371 19,848,709
9,536,550 2,312,880
23,458

14,381,951 4,940,447 7,020,226 8,322,314
14,194,296 20,224,506 31,022,752 46,211,837 46,457,132 53,520,326 64,218,343 52,050,869 44,736,225 40,079,382 32,952,922 23,098,570 12,717,365
2,165,993 52,018

14,972,674 5,196,360 7,296,003 8,694,756
15,210,639 21,052,107 31,885,342 47,806,164 47,744,565 56,217,115 68,937,147 55,415,762 49,161,771 46,610,268 43,832,391 34,184,881 25,919,425 10,449,477
1,877,041 12,685

15,561,456 5,368,707 7,576,574 8,962,955
15,871,631 21,852,027 32,579,713 49,118,444 48,982,991 58,351,886 71,199,655 58,282,154 52,419,930 50,928,985 50,256,788 43,234,900 38,991,269 22,341,575
9,515,143 2,374,539
62,912

16,655,748 5,606,164 7,955,139 9,303,904
16,899,408 22,613,689 33,410,191 51,225,715 50,554,392 60,588,511 74,307,990 62,292,065 56,003,151 55,102,428 56,563,751 50,699,561 51,760,723 38,988,747 23,835,104 11,525,627
2,255,211 29,858

17,315,887 5,812,811 8,307,234 9,578,782
17,487,125 23,384,113 34,577,189 52,470,348 51,949,470 62,090,923 76,699,630 65,230,571 58,706,504 58,034,725 61,157,387 56,168,457 60,391,179 51,940,369 39,620,687 26,372,713 12,540,966
2,812,656 28,642

29

Exhibit 3 - Historical Development Factors by Injury Date, Page 1

Source - Exhibit 2 - As Development Ratios

Injury Year <=1981
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990

1.576

1.645

1.110

1.000

1.070 1.885

1.144 1.150

1.041 1.123
1.000

2.007 2.954
1.000 1.815

3.963 9.706 147.108 11.905 24.196 86.644 616.005

1991

1992

1993

1.652 1.895 1.798 1.923 1.911 1.988 1.998 2.000 2.000 2.000

2.000 1.384 1.400 1.352 1.272 1.258 1.336 1.631 2.366 11.440 14.407

1.172 1.173 1.267 1.216 1.223 1.225 1.197 1.359 1.585 2.248 3.151 37.787

30

Exhibit 3 - Historical Development Factors by Injury Date, Page 2

Source - Exhibit 2 - As Development Ratios

Injury Year
<=1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

1994
1.137 1.164 1.223 1.110 1.160 1.146 1.143 1.271 1.334 1.579 2.136 3.166 26.678

1995
1.092 1.171 1.237 1.129 1.069 1.112 1.118 1.164 1.259 1.362 1.613 2.249 4.233 11.941

1996

1997

1.096 1.081 1.096 1.099 1.132 1.075 1.083 1.113 1.144 1.189 1.379 1.579 2.330 4.885 68.525

1.075 1.066 1.085 1.083 1.089 1.084 1.050 1.090 1.105 1.110 1.162 1.332 1.612 2.155 3.818 113.101

1998
1.061 1.069 1.114 1.087 1.064 1.066 1.048 1.068 1.072 1.079 1.143 1.182 1.325 1.580 2.479 6.211 33.913

1999
1.050 1.065 1.051 1.044 1.063 1.026 1.036 1.045 1.048 1.055 1.080 1.128 1.187 1.309 1.660 2.422 5.498 92.337

2000

2001

1.041 1.052 1.039 1.045 1.072 1.041 1.028 1.035 1.028 1.050 1.073 1.065 1.099 1.163 1.330 1.480 2.038 4.824 36.084

1.039 1.033 1.038 1.031 1.043 1.038 1.022 1.027 1.026 1.038 1.033 1.052 1.066 1.093 1.147 1.265 1.504 2.138 5.069 187.198

2002
1.070 1.044 1.050 1.038 1.065 1.035 1.025 1.043 1.032 1.038 1.044 1.069 1.068 1.082 1.125 1.173 1.327 1.745 2.505 4.854 35.847

2003
1.040 1.037 1.044 1.030 1.035 1.034 1.035 1.024 1.028 1.025 1.032 1.047 1.048 1.053 1.081 1.108 1.167 1.332 1.662 2.288 5.561 94.201

31

Exhibit 4 Injury Year-to-Year Development Factors, Page 1

Source - Exhibit 3

Injury Year 2nd/1st

<=1981

1.576

1982

0.000

1983

0.000

1984

0.000

1985

0.000

1986

0.000

1987

0.000

1988

0.000

1989

0.000

1990

2.000

1991

14.407

1992

37.787

1993

26.678

1994

11.941

1995

68.525

1996

113.101

1997

33.913

1998

92.337

1999

36.084

2000

187.198

2001

35.847

2002

94.201

10 yr aver

69.983

5 yr aver

89.133

5 yr ex hi lo 74.207

selected

>89

94.201

selected 84-89

selected <84

cumul

>89

5066.991

cumul84-89

cumulative <84

3rd/2nd 1.645 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 2.000
11.440 3.151 3.166 4.233 4.885 3.818 6.211 5.498 4.824 5.069 4.854 5.561
4.812 5.161 5.141
5.141
53.789

4th/3rd 1.110 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
616.005 2.000 2.366 2.248 2.136 2.249 2.330 2.155 2.479 2.422 2.038 2.138 2.505 2.288
2.274 2.278 2.283
2.283
10.464

5th/4th 1.000 1.885 0.000 1.000 1.815
86.644 1.998 1.631 1.585 1.579 1.613 1.579 1.612 1.580 1.660 1.480 1.504 1.745 1.662
1.601 1.610 1.609
1.609
4.584

6th/5th 1.070 1.150 0.000 1.000
24.196 1.988 1.336 1.359 1.334 1.362 1.379 1.332 1.325 1.309 1.330 1.265 1.327 1.332
1.329 1.313 1.322
1.322
2.849

7th/6th 1.144 1.123 0.000
11.905 1.911 1.258 1.197 1.271 1.259 1.189 1.162 1.182 1.187 1.163 1.147 1.173 1.167
1.115 1.167 1.167
1.167
2.154

8th/7th 1.041 2.954
147.108 1.923 1.272 1.225 1.143 1.164 1.144 1.110 1.143 1.128 1.099 1.093 1.125 1.108
1.115 1.111 1.111
1.111
1.845

9th/8th 2.007 9.706 1.798 1.352 1.223 1.146 1.118 1.113 1.105 1.079 1.080 1.065 1.066 1.082 1.081
1.076 1.075 1.076
1.076
1.661

10th/9th 3.963 1.895 1.400 1.216 1.160 1.112 1.083 1.090 1.072 1.055 1.073 1.052 1.068 1.053
1.060 1.060 1.059 1.059
1.544

11th/10th 1.652 1.384 1.267 1.110 1.069 1.075 1.050 1.068 1.048 1.050 1.033 1.069 1.048
1.050 1.050 1.049 1.049
1.458

12th/11th 2.000 1.173 1.223 1.129 1.132 1.084 1.048 1.045 1.028 1.038 1.044 1.047
1.043 1.043 1.044 1.044
1.390

13th/12th 1.172 1.164 1.237 1.099 1.089 1.066 1.036 1.035 1.026 1.038 1.032
1.035 1.035 1.035 1.035
1.332

32

Exhibit 4 Injury Year-to-Year Development Factors, Page 2

Source - Exhibit 3
Injury Year <=1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
10 yr aver
5 yr aver 5 yr ex hi lo selected >89 selected 84-89 selected <84 cumul >89 cumul84-89 cumulative <84

14th/13th 1.137 1.171 1.096 1.083 1.064 1.026 1.028 1.027 1.032 1.025

15th/14th 1.092 1.081 1.085 1.087 1.063 1.041 1.022 1.043 1.028

16th/15th 1.096 1.066 1.114 1.044 1.072 1.038 1.025 1.024

17th/16th 1.075 1.069 1.051 1.045 1.043 1.035 1.035

18th/17th 1.061 1.065 1.039 1.031 1.065 1.034

19th/18th 1.050 1.052 1.038 1.038 1.035

20th/19th 1.041 1.033 1.050 1.030

21st/20th 1.039 1.044 1.044

22nd/21st 1.070 1.037

23/22nd 1.040

24th/23rd

1.025
1.025 1.025 1.025 1.043 1.135 1.286 1.783

1.024 1.047 1.086 1.255 1.709

1.023 1.041 1.092 1.226 1.632 2.082

1.022 1.039 1.065 1.198 1.568 1.906

1.020 1.043 1.055 1.172 1.508 1.790

1.018 1.036 1.047 1.149 1.446 1.697

1.016 1.035 1.037 1.129 1.395 1.622

1.014 1.033 1.043 1.111 1.348 1.563

1.012 1.030 1.054 1.096 1.305 1.500

To ultimate

1.010 1.030 1.040 1.083 1.267 1.423

1.072 1.230 1.369

33

Exhibit 5 - Calculation of Unpaid Claims by Injury Date

(1) Injury Year
1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

(2) Paid (from ex 2)
17,315,887 5,812,811 8,307,234 9,578,782
17,487,125 23,384,113 34,577,189 52,470,348 51,949,470 62,090,923 76,699,630 65,230,571 58,706,504 58,034,725 61,157,387 56,168,457 60,391,179 51,940,369 39,620,687 26,372,713 12,540,966
2,812,656 28,642
852,678,371

(3) Dev. factor (from ex 4)
1.369 1.423 1.500 1.348 1.395 1.446 1.508 1.568 1.632 1.255 1.286 1.332 1.390 1.458 1.544 1.661 1.845 2.154 2.849 4.584 10.464 53.789 5066.991

(4) Ultimate cols(2) x (3)
$23,697,988 $8,273,443
$12,457,429 $12,910,576 $24,394,623 $33,808,632 $52,152,334 $82,266,264 $84,756,226 $77,926,599 $98,648,097 $86,855,056 $81,580,764 $84,625,546 $94,438,958 $93,321,016 $111,450,457 $111,905,238 $112,877,379 $120,886,841 $131,225,944 $151,290,780 $145,128,356
$1,836,878,545

(5) Unpaid cols(4) (2)
$6,382,100 $2,460,632 $4,150,195 $3,331,794 $6,907,498 $10,424,519 $17,575,146 $29,795,916 $32,806,755 $15,835,675 $21,948,467 $21,624,485 $22,874,260 $26,590,821 $33,281,571 $37,152,559 $51,059,278 $59,964,869 $73,256,692 $94,514,128 $118,684,978 $148,478,123 $145,099,714
$984,200,174

34

Exhibit 6a - Cumulative Payments (2007 2020) - Assumption 1, Page 1

Injury year
1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 6/30/2008 7/08-12/20

Ultimate Assumption #1
$23,697,988 $8,273,443
$12,457,429 $12,910,576 $24,394,623 $33,808,632 $52,152,334 $82,266,264 $84,756,226 $77,926,599 $98,648,097 $86,855,056 $81,580,764 $84,625,546 $94,438,958 $93,321,016 $111,450,457 $111,905,238 $112,877,379 $120,886,841 $131,225,944 $151,290,780 $145,128,356 $153,720,800 $160,551,000 $167,381,200 $174,211,400 $90,520,800
$0 $2,583,263,745

12/31/2007

12/31/2008

12/31/2009

12/31/2010

12/31/2011

12/31/2012

12/31/2013

12/31/2014

$22,499,473 $7,811,144
$11,696,013 $12,054,507 $22,651,778 $31,221,705 $47,590,717 $74,034,188 $75,073,808 $67,803,916 $84,150,673 $72,495,841 $66,562,577 $67,428,559 $73,426,994 $70,086,687 $80,201,096 $76,742,663 $73,097,858 $72,759,895 $71,106,837 $70,221,011 $50,940,988 $33,535,780 $15,343,496
$3,111,794 $34,382 $0 $0
$1,353,684,379

$22,626,740 $7,855,017
$11,761,339 $12,121,463 $22,777,075 $31,393,215 $48,161,806 $75,070,666 $76,274,989 $69,024,386 $85,833,687 $74,090,750 $68,093,516 $69,046,845 $75,247,762 $72,557,785 $83,702,403 $80,528,362 $77,409,340 $78,284,677 $78,982,839 $81,979,283 $67,360,747 $53,956,991 $35,025,859 $15,996,242
$3,238,775 $17,865 $0
$1,478,420,424

$22,755,274 $7,899,449
$11,827,400 $12,189,166 $22,903,587 $31,566,864 $48,426,374 $75,971,514 $77,342,838 $70,128,777 $87,378,693 $75,572,565 $69,591,573 $70,634,922 $77,053,708 $74,357,000 $86,653,561 $84,043,957 $81,227,926 $82,902,090 $84,980,139 $91,059,549 $78,640,077 $71,348,895 $56,354,435 $36,515,938 $16,648,989
$1,682,878 $0
$1,607,658,139

$23,016,959 $7,944,323
$11,894,301 $12,257,630 $23,031,513 $31,742,199 $48,694,241 $76,388,849 $78,270,952 $71,110,579 $88,776,752 $76,932,871 $70,983,405 $72,188,890 $78,825,943 $76,141,568 $88,802,308 $87,007,157 $84,774,062 $86,991,632 $89,992,466 $97,973,854 $87,350,483 $83,296,028 $74,519,105 $58,751,879 $38,006,016
$8,650,868 $0
$1,734,316,834

$23,149,978 $8,035,682
$11,961,868 $12,326,964 $23,160,876 $31,919,492 $48,964,707 $76,811,389 $78,700,919 $71,963,906 $90,019,627 $78,163,797 $72,261,106 $73,632,668 $80,560,114 $77,892,824 $90,933,563 $89,164,672 $87,763,003 $90,789,391 $94,431,776 $103,752,581 $93,983,152 $92,522,140 $86,997,079 $77,689,315 $61,149,324 $19,748,048
$0 $1,848,449,961

$23,284,543 $8,082,122
$12,099,429 $12,396,989 $23,291,884 $32,098,776 $49,238,194 $77,238,028 $79,136,248 $72,359,226 $91,099,862 $79,258,090 $73,417,284 $74,958,056 $82,171,316 $79,606,466 $93,025,035 $91,304,624 $89,939,261 $93,990,420 $98,554,346 $108,870,674 $99,526,498 $99,547,502 $96,633,131 $90,698,130 $80,859,525 $31,773,384
$0 $1,944,459,044

$23,420,682 $8,129,101
$12,169,354 $12,539,554 $23,424,197 $32,280,341 $49,514,754 $77,669,434 $79,575,800 $72,759,477 $91,600,302 $80,209,187 $74,445,126 $76,157,385 $83,650,400 $81,198,595 $95,071,586 $93,404,630 $92,097,803 $96,321,099 $102,029,149 $113,623,598 $104,436,119 $105,419,047 $103,970,647 $100,744,121 $94,399,181 $42,014,868
$0 $2,022,275,536

$23,558,616 $8,176,630
$12,240,092 $12,612,022 $23,693,574 $32,463,714 $49,794,832 $78,105,685 $80,020,263 $73,163,610 $92,106,983 $80,649,801 $75,338,467 $77,223,588 $84,988,806 $82,660,170 $96,973,018 $95,459,532 $94,216,053 $98,632,805 $104,559,165 $117,629,708 $108,995,445 $110,619,346 $110,103,079 $108,393,792 $104,855,111 $49,050,116
$0 $2,086,284,022

35

Exhibit 6a - Cumulative Payments (2007 2020) - Assumption 1, Page 2

Injury Yr 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
6/30/2008 To 2020

12/31/2015 $23,697,988
$8,224,785 $12,311,656 $12,685,333 $23,830,503 $32,837,045 $50,077,698 $78,547,486 $80,469,718 $73,572,258 $92,618,580 $81,095,910 $75,752,325 $78,150,272 $86,178,650 $83,982,733 $98,718,532 $97,368,723 $96,288,806 $100,901,360 $107,068,585 $120,546,570 $112,838,378 $115,448,611 $115,534,440 $114,787,111 $112,816,937 $54,483,051
$0 $2,140,834,042

12/31/2016 $23,697,988
$8,273,443 $12,384,165 $12,759,501 $23,969,024 $33,026,816 $50,653,589 $78,993,685 $80,924,892 $73,985,497 $93,135,892 $81,546,347 $76,171,344 $78,579,575 $87,212,793 $85,158,491 $100,298,028 $99,121,360 $98,214,582 $103,121,189 $109,531,162 $123,439,688 $115,636,429 $119,519,067 $120,578,282 $120,449,535 $119,471,143 $58,620,041
$0 $2,188,473,547

12/31/2017 $23,697,988
$8,273,443 $12,457,429 $12,834,647 $24,109,165 $33,218,793 $50,946,325 $79,902,110 $81,384,596 $74,403,992 $93,659,015 $82,001,816 $76,594,428 $79,014,233 $87,691,880 $86,180,393 $101,702,201 $100,707,301 $99,982,445 $105,183,613 $111,940,848 $126,278,801 $118,411,704 $122,482,780 $124,829,599 $125,707,952 $125,364,629 $62,077,588
$0 $2,231,039,711

12/31/2018 $23,697,988
$8,273,443 $12,457,429 $12,910,576 $24,251,154 $33,413,015 $51,242,463 $80,363,877 $82,320,516 $74,826,654 $94,188,792 $82,462,402 $77,022,238 $79,453,107 $88,176,942 $86,653,808 $102,922,627 $102,117,204 $101,582,164 $107,076,918 $114,179,664 $129,056,935 $121,135,173 $125,422,367 $127,924,996 $130,140,130 $130,837,623 $65,139,862
$0 $2,269,250,066

12/31/2019 $23,697,988
$8,273,443 $12,457,429 $12,910,576 $24,394,623 $33,609,798 $51,542,065 $80,831,013 $82,796,259 $75,687,157 $94,723,844 $82,928,846 $77,454,855 $79,896,885 $88,666,710 $87,133,128 $103,488,013 $103,342,610 $103,004,314 $108,790,149 $116,234,898 $131,638,073 $123,800,147 $128,307,081 $130,995,196 $133,367,213 $135,450,662 $67,983,647
$0 $2,303,406,620

12/31/2020 $23,697,988 $8,273,443 $12,457,429 $12,910,576 $24,394,623 $33,808,632 $51,845,617 $81,303,611 $83,277,534 $76,124,566 $95,813,165 $83,399,934 $77,892,974 $80,345,647 $89,161,949 $87,617,098
$104,060,450 $103,910,303 $104,240,366 $110,313,211 $118,094,657 $134,007,559 $126,276,149 $131,129,837 $134,008,086 $136,568,026 $138,809,429
$70,380,596 $0
$2,334,123,455

36

Exhibit 6b - Cumulative Payments (2007-2020) Assumption 2, Page 1

injury year
1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
To 2020

Ultimate Assumption#2
$23,697,988 $8,273,443
$12,457,429 $12,910,576 $24,394,623 $33,808,632 $52,152,334 $82,266,264 $84,756,226 $77,926,599 $98,648,097 $86,855,056 $81,580,764 $84,625,546 $94,438,958 $93,321,016 $111,450,457 $111,905,238 $112,877,379 $120,886,841 $131,225,944 $151,290,780 $145,128,356 $174,154,027 $195,052,510 $234,063,012 $280,875,614 $168,525,368
$0
$2,889,549,076

12/31/2007 12/31/2008 12/31/2009 12/31/2010 12/31/2011 12/31/2012 12/31/2013 12/31/2014

$22,499,473 $7,811,144
$11,696,013 $12,054,507 $22,651,778 $31,221,705 $47,590,717 $74,034,188 $75,073,808 $67,803,916 $84,150,673 $72,495,841 $66,562,577 $67,428,559 $73,426,994 $70,086,687 $80,201,096 $76,742,663 $73,097,858 $72,759,895 $71,106,837 $70,221,011 $50,940,988 $37,993,500 $18,640,727
$4,351,480 $55,432 $0

$22,626,740 $7,855,017
$11,761,339 $12,121,463 $22,777,075 $31,393,215 $48,161,806 $75,070,666 $76,274,989 $69,024,386 $85,833,687 $74,090,750 $68,093,516 $69,046,845 $75,247,762 $72,557,785 $83,702,403 $80,528,362 $77,409,340 $78,284,677 $78,982,839 $81,979,283 $67,360,747 $61,129,185 $42,552,720 $22,368,872
$5,221,776 $33,259

$22,755,274 $7,899,449
$11,827,400 $12,189,166 $22,903,587 $31,566,864 $48,426,374 $75,971,514 $77,342,838 $70,128,777 $87,378,693 $75,572,565 $69,591,573 $70,634,922 $77,053,708 $74,357,000 $86,653,561 $84,043,957 $81,227,926 $82,902,090 $84,980,139 $91,059,549 $78,640,077 $80,832,896 $68,464,687 $51,063,264 $26,842,646
$3,133,066

$23,016,959 $7,944,323
$11,894,301 $12,257,630 $23,031,513 $31,742,199 $48,694,241 $76,388,849 $78,270,952 $71,110,579 $88,776,752 $76,932,871 $70,983,405 $72,188,890 $78,825,943 $76,141,568 $88,802,308 $87,007,157 $84,774,062 $86,991,632 $89,992,466 $97,973,854 $87,350,483 $94,368,092 $90,532,843 $82,157,625 $61,275,917 $16,105,588

$23,149,978 $8,035,682
$11,961,868 $12,326,964 $23,160,876 $31,919,492 $48,964,707 $76,811,389 $78,700,919 $71,963,906 $90,019,627 $78,163,797 $72,261,106 $73,632,668 $80,560,114 $77,892,824 $90,933,563 $89,164,672 $87,763,003 $90,789,391 $94,431,776 $103,752,581 $93,983,152 $104,820,579 $105,692,263 $108,639,412 $98,589,150 $36,765,550

$23,284,543 $8,082,122
$12,099,429 $12,396,989 $23,291,884 $32,098,776 $49,238,194 $77,238,028 $79,136,248 $72,359,226 $91,099,862 $79,258,090 $73,417,284 $74,958,056 $82,171,316 $79,606,466 $93,025,035 $91,304,624 $89,939,261 $93,990,420 $98,554,346 $108,870,674 $99,526,498 $112,779,783 $117,399,049 $126,830,716 $130,367,294 $59,153,490

$23,420,682 $8,129,101
$12,169,354 $12,539,554 $23,424,197 $32,280,341 $49,514,754 $77,669,434 $79,575,800 $72,759,477 $91,600,302 $80,209,187 $74,445,126 $76,157,385 $83,650,400 $81,198,595 $95,071,586 $93,404,630 $92,097,803 $96,321,099 $102,029,149 $113,623,598 $104,436,119 $119,431,798 $126,313,356 $140,878,858 $152,196,859 $78,220,377

$23,558,616 $8,176,630
$12,240,092 $12,612,022 $23,693,574 $32,463,714 $49,794,832 $78,105,685 $80,020,263 $73,163,610 $92,106,983 $80,649,801 $75,338,467 $77,223,588 $84,988,806 $82,660,170 $96,973,018 $95,459,532 $94,216,053 $98,632,805 $104,559,165 $117,629,708 $108,995,445 $125,323,343 $133,763,613 $151,576,028 $169,054,630 $91,318,115

$0

$0

$0

$0

$1,362,700,066 $1,501,490,505 $1,655,443,563 $1,815,533,002

$0
$1,964,851,009

$0
$2,091,477,704

$0
$2,192,768,920

$0
$2,274,298,308

37

Exhibit 6b - Cumulative Payments (2007-2020) Assumption 2, Page 2

Injury Yr

12/31/2015

12/31/2016

12/31/2017

12/31/2018

12/31/2019

12/31/2020

1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
To 2020

$23,697,988 $8,224,785
$12,311,656 $12,685,333 $23,830,503 $32,837,045 $50,077,698 $78,547,486 $80,469,718 $73,572,258 $92,618,580 $81,095,910 $75,752,325 $78,150,272 $86,178,650 $83,982,733 $98,718,532 $97,368,723 $96,288,806 $100,901,360 $107,068,585 $120,546,570 $112,838,378 $130,794,534 $140,362,144 $160,516,336 $181,891,233 $101,432,778
$0 $2,342,760,917

$23,697,988 $8,273,443
$12,384,165 $12,759,501 $23,969,024 $33,026,816 $50,653,589 $78,993,685 $80,924,892 $73,985,497 $93,135,892 $81,546,347 $76,171,344 $78,579,575 $87,212,793 $85,158,491 $100,298,028 $99,121,360 $98,214,582 $103,121,189 $109,531,162 $123,439,688 $115,636,429 $135,406,053 $146,489,878 $168,434,573 $192,619,603 $109,134,740

$23,697,988 $8,273,443
$12,457,429 $12,834,647 $24,109,165 $33,218,793 $50,946,325 $79,902,110 $81,384,596 $74,403,992 $93,659,015 $82,001,816 $76,594,428 $79,014,233 $87,691,880 $86,180,393 $101,702,201 $100,707,301 $99,982,445 $105,183,613 $111,940,848 $126,278,801 $118,411,704 $138,763,715 $151,654,780 $175,787,854 $202,121,487 $115,571,762

$23,697,988 $8,273,443
$12,457,429 $12,910,576 $24,251,154 $33,413,015 $51,242,463 $80,363,877 $82,320,516 $74,826,654 $94,188,792 $82,462,402 $77,022,238 $79,453,107 $88,176,942 $86,653,808 $102,922,627 $102,117,204 $101,582,164 $107,076,918 $114,179,664 $129,056,935 $121,135,173 $142,094,044 $155,415,361 $181,985,736 $210,945,425 $121,272,892

$23,697,988 $8,273,443
$12,457,429 $12,910,576 $24,394,623 $33,609,798 $51,542,065 $80,831,013 $82,796,259 $75,687,157 $94,723,844 $82,928,846 $77,454,855 $79,896,885 $88,666,710 $87,133,128 $103,488,013 $103,342,610 $103,004,314 $108,790,149 $116,234,898 $131,638,073 $123,800,147 $145,362,207 $159,145,330 $186,498,433 $218,382,883 $126,567,255

$23,697,988 $8,273,443
$12,457,429 $12,910,576 $24,394,623 $33,808,632 $51,845,617 $81,303,611 $83,277,534 $76,124,566 $95,813,165 $83,399,934 $77,892,974 $80,345,647 $89,161,949 $87,617,098 $104,060,450 $103,910,303 $104,240,366 $110,313,211 $118,094,657 $134,007,559 $126,276,149 $148,560,176 $162,805,672 $190,974,396 $223,798,120 $131,029,730

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$2,401,920,327 $2,454,476,760 $2,501,498,546 $2,543,258,929 $2,580,395,573

38

Exhibit 6c - Cumulative Payments (2007-2020) Selected, Page 1

Injury year 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 6/08 To 2020

selected Ultimate
$23,697,988 $8,273,443
$12,457,429 $12,910,576 $24,394,623 $33,808,632 $52,152,334 $82,266,264 $84,756,226 $77,926,599 $98,648,097 $86,855,056 $81,580,764 $84,625,546 $94,438,958 $93,321,016 $111,450,457 $111,905,238 $112,877,379 $120,886,841 $131,225,944 $151,290,780 $145,128,356 $163,937,413 $177,801,755 $200,722,106 $227,543,507 $129,523,084
$0 $2,736,406,410

12/31/2007

12/31/2008

12/31/2009

12/31/2010

12/31/2011

12/31/2012

12/31/2013

12/31/2014

$22,499,473 $7,811,144
$11,696,013 $12,054,507 $22,651,778 $31,221,705 $47,590,717 $74,034,188 $75,073,808 $67,803,916 $84,150,673 $72,495,841 $66,562,577 $67,428,559 $73,426,994 $70,086,687 $80,201,096 $76,742,663 $73,097,858 $72,759,895 $71,106,837 $70,221,011 $50,940,988 $35,764,640 $16,992,111
$3,731,637 $44,907 $0

$22,626,740 $7,855,017
$11,761,339 $12,121,463 $22,777,075 $31,393,215 $48,161,806 $75,070,666 $76,274,989 $69,024,386 $85,833,687 $74,090,750 $68,093,516 $69,046,845 $75,247,762 $72,557,785 $83,702,403 $80,528,362 $77,409,340 $78,284,677 $78,982,839 $81,979,283 $67,360,747 $57,543,088 $38,789,289 $19,182,557
$4,230,276 $25,562

$22,755,274 $7,899,449
$11,827,400 $12,189,166 $22,903,587 $31,566,864 $48,426,374 $75,971,514 $77,342,838 $70,128,777 $87,378,693 $75,572,565 $69,591,573 $70,634,922 $77,053,708 $74,357,000 $86,653,561 $84,043,957 $81,227,926 $82,902,090 $84,980,139 $91,059,549 $78,640,077 $76,090,896 $62,409,561 $43,789,601 $21,745,818
$2,407,972

$23,016,959 $7,944,323
$11,894,301 $12,257,630 $23,031,513 $31,742,199 $48,694,241 $76,388,849 $78,270,952 $71,110,579 $88,776,752 $76,932,871 $70,983,405 $72,188,890 $78,825,943 $76,141,568 $88,802,308 $87,007,157 $84,774,062 $86,991,632 $89,992,466 $97,973,854 $87,350,483 $88,832,060 $82,525,974 $70,454,752 $49,640,967 $12,378,228

$23,149,978 $8,035,682
$11,961,868 $12,326,964 $23,160,876 $31,919,492 $48,964,707 $76,811,389 $78,700,919 $71,963,906 $90,019,627 $78,163,797 $72,261,106 $73,632,668 $80,560,114 $77,892,824 $90,933,563 $89,164,672 $87,763,003 $90,789,391 $94,431,776 $103,752,581 $93,983,152 $98,671,360 $96,344,671 $93,164,364 $79,869,237 $28,256,799

$23,284,543 $8,082,122
$12,099,429 $12,396,989 $23,291,884 $32,098,776 $49,238,194 $77,238,028 $79,136,248 $72,359,226 $91,099,862 $79,258,090 $73,417,284 $74,958,056 $82,171,316 $79,606,466 $93,025,035 $91,304,624 $89,939,261 $93,990,420 $98,554,346 $108,870,674 $99,526,498 $106,163,643 $107,016,090 $108,764,423 $105,613,410 $45,463,437

$23,420,682 $8,129,101
$12,169,354 $12,539,554 $23,424,197 $32,280,341 $49,514,754 $77,669,434 $79,575,800 $72,759,477 $91,600,302 $80,209,187 $74,445,126 $76,157,385 $83,650,400 $81,198,595 $95,071,586 $93,404,630 $92,097,803 $96,321,099 $102,029,149 $113,623,598 $104,436,119 $112,425,422 $115,142,002 $120,811,490 $123,298,020 $60,117,622

$23,558,616 $8,176,630
$12,240,092 $12,612,022 $23,693,574 $32,463,714 $49,794,832 $78,105,685 $80,020,263 $73,163,610 $92,106,983 $80,649,801 $75,338,467 $77,223,588 $84,988,806 $82,660,170 $96,973,018 $95,459,532 $94,216,053 $98,632,805 $104,559,165 $117,629,708 $108,995,445 $117,971,344 $121,933,346 $129,984,910 $136,954,871 $70,184,116

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$1,358,192,223 $1,489,955,464 $1,631,550,851 $1,774,924,918 $1,906,650,485 $2,017,968,374 $2,107,522,228 $2,180,291,165

39

Exhibit 6c - Cumulative Payments (2007-2020) Selected, Page 2

Injury Yr

12/31/2015

12/31/2016

12/31/2017

12/31/2018

12/31/2019

12/31/2020

1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 6/08 To 2020

$23,697,988 $8,224,785
$12,311,656 $12,685,333 $23,830,503 $32,837,045 $50,077,698 $78,547,486 $80,469,718 $73,572,258 $92,618,580 $81,095,910 $75,752,325 $78,150,272 $86,178,650 $83,982,733 $98,718,532 $97,368,723 $96,288,806 $100,901,360 $107,068,585 $120,546,570 $112,838,378 $123,121,572 $127,948,292 $137,651,724 $147,354,085 $77,957,914
$0 $2,241,797,480

$23,697,988 $8,273,443
$12,384,165 $12,759,501 $23,969,024 $33,026,816 $50,653,589 $78,993,685 $80,924,892 $73,985,497 $93,135,892 $81,546,347 $76,171,344 $78,579,575 $87,212,793 $85,158,491 $100,298,028 $99,121,360 $98,214,582 $103,121,189 $109,531,162 $123,439,688 $115,636,429 $127,462,560 $133,534,080 $144,442,054 $156,045,373 $83,877,390

$23,697,988 $8,273,443
$12,457,429 $12,834,647 $24,109,165 $33,218,793 $50,946,325 $79,902,110 $81,384,596 $74,403,992 $93,659,015 $82,001,816 $76,594,428 $79,014,233 $87,691,880 $86,180,393 $101,702,201 $100,707,301 $99,982,445 $105,183,613 $111,940,848 $126,278,801 $118,411,704 $130,623,247 $138,242,189 $150,747,903 $163,743,058 $88,824,675

$23,697,988 $8,273,443
$12,457,429 $12,910,576 $24,251,154 $33,413,015 $51,242,463 $80,363,877 $82,320,516 $74,826,654 $94,188,792 $82,462,402 $77,022,238 $79,453,107 $88,176,942 $86,653,808 $102,922,627 $102,117,204 $101,582,164 $107,076,918 $114,179,664 $129,056,935 $121,135,173 $133,758,205 $141,670,179 $156,062,933 $170,891,524 $93,206,377

$23,697,988 $8,273,443
$12,457,429 $12,910,576 $24,394,623 $33,609,798 $51,542,065 $80,831,013 $82,796,259 $75,687,157 $94,723,844 $82,928,846 $77,454,855 $79,896,885 $88,666,710 $87,133,128 $103,488,013 $103,342,610 $103,004,314 $108,790,149 $116,234,898 $131,638,073 $123,800,147 $136,834,644 $145,070,263 $159,932,823 $176,916,772 $97,275,451

$23,697,988 $8,273,443
$12,457,429 $12,910,576 $24,394,623 $33,808,632 $51,845,617 $81,303,611 $83,277,534 $76,124,566 $95,813,165 $83,399,934 $77,892,974 $80,345,647 $89,161,949 $87,617,098 $104,060,450 $103,910,303 $104,240,366 $110,313,211 $118,094,657 $134,007,559 $126,276,149 $139,845,006 $148,406,879 $163,771,211 $181,303,775 $100,705,163

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$2,295,196,937 $2,342,758,236 $2,385,374,306 $2,423,332,775 $2,457,259,514

40

Exhibit 7 Claim Payments by Year (2009-2020)

(1)
year
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

(2) Cumulative
Ultimate Assumption#1 (from Ex 6a)
$2,492,742,945 $2,583,263,745 $2,583,263,745 $2,583,263,745 $2,583,263,745 $2,583,263,745 $2,583,263,745 $2,583,263,745 $2,583,263,745 $2,583,263,745 $2,583,263,745 $2,583,263,745 $2,583,263,745 $2,583,263,745

(3) Cumulative
Ultimate Assumption#2 (from Ex 6b)
$2,721,023,707 $2,889,549,076 $2,889,549,076 $2,889,549,076 $2,889,549,076 $2,889,549,076 $2,889,549,076 $2,889,549,076 $2,889,549,076 $2,889,549,076 $2,889,549,076 $2,889,549,076 $2,889,549,076 $2,889,549,076

(4) Cumulative
Ultimate Selected (from Ex 6c)

(5) Cumulative
Paid Assumption#1 (from Ex 6a)

(6) Cumulative
Paid Assumption#2 (from Ex 6b)

(7) Cumulative
Paid Average (from Ex 6c)

(8) Unpaid at year end low estimate (2) (5)

(90 Unpaid at year end high estimate (3) (6)

(10) unpaid at year end estimated (4) (7)

$2,606,883,326 $2,736,406,410 $2,736,406,410 $2,736,406,410 $2,736,406,410 $2,736,406,410 $2,736,406,410 $2,736,406,410 $2,736,406,410 $2,736,406,410 $2,736,406,410 $2,736,406,410 $2,736,406,410 $2,736,406,410

$1,353,684,379 $1,478,420,424 $1,607,658,139 $1,734,316,834 $1,848,449,961 $1,944,459,044 $2,022,275,536 $2,086,284,022 $2,140,834,042 $2,188,473,547 $2,231,039,711 $2,269,250,066 $2,303,406,620 $2,334,123,455

$1,362,700,066 $1,501,490,505 $1,655,443,563 $1,815,533,002 $1,964,851,009 $2,091,477,704 $2,192,768,920 $2,274,298,308 $2,342,760,917 $2,401,920,327 $2,454,476,760 $2,501,498,546 $2,543,258,929 $2,580,395,573

$1,358,192,223 $1,489,955,464 $1,631,550,851 $1,774,924,918 $1,906,650,485 $2,017,968,374 $2,107,522,228 $2,180,291,165 $2,241,797,480 $2,295,196,937 $2,342,758,236 $2,385,374,306 $2,423,332,775 $2,457,259,514

$1,139,058,566 $1,104,843,321
$975,605,606 $848,946,911 $734,813,784 $638,804,700 $560,988,209 $496,979,723 $442,429,703 $394,790,198 $352,224,034 $314,013,679 $279,857,125 $249,140,290

$1,358,323,641 $1,388,058,571 $1,234,105,513 $1,074,016,074
$924,698,067 $798,071,372 $696,780,156 $615,250,768 $546,788,158 $487,628,749 $435,072,315 $388,050,530 $346,290,147 $309,153,503

$1,248,691,104 $1,246,450,946 $1,104,855,560
$961,481,493 $829,755,926 $718,438,036 $628,884,183 $556,115,245 $494,608,931 $441,209,473 $393,648,175 $351,032,104 $313,073,636 $279,146,897

Note: The low estimate of the unpaid reimbursements may be found under column (8) on this exhibit. The high estimate may be found under column (9) of this exhibit. The selected estimate of the unpaid reimbursements may be found under column (10) of this exhibit.

41

Exhibit 8 Claim Payments by Received Date, Page 1 (source - GSITF claim files)

Received
Date <=1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

1981 78,210

1982 45,075

1983 79,531

1984
22,180 9
30

1985 12,864

1986 8,364 18,750

1987
34,773
3,632 130,683

1988
11,283 3,430
57,280 5,660

1989
288,744 49,392 11,806
18,550 79,627
7,106 10,000

1990
924,126 639,701 750,563 1,190,505 1,468,306 3,651,188 4,012,368 6,066,706 5,415,097 1,814,552

1991
870,836 636,168 617,207 1,139,475 1,225,715 3,651,188 4,012,368 6,066,706 5,415,097 1,814,552 1,196,115

1992
2,363,122 651,675 493,306 634,635
1,056,098 1,751,864 1,916,216 4,601,286 7,315,009 8,876,399 5,687,466
931,981

1993
868,292 454,271 361,370 760,502 784,567 1,562,017 2,091,994 3,848,091 6,349,807 8,989,106 9,497,928 5,775,152 496,266

42

Exhibit 8 Claim Payments by Received Date, Page 2

(source - GSITF claim files)

Received
Date <=1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

1994
748,303 452,842 406,997 625,280 644,656 1,436,817 2,061,332 3,396,127 5,894,342 7,505,781 12,133,626 8,105,474 5,563,583 479,294

1995
473,937 442,346 347,358 965,810 507,835 985,823 1,607,829 2,757,311 5,106,703 7,528,450 12,465,549 10,505,804 10,858,537 4,363,543 348,185

1996
548,982 326,631 284,164 452,357 741,721 1,268,646 1,056,676 3,158,467 3,478,896 5,040,766 8,590,344 11,109,815 11,391,568 10,733,256 6,309,606 317,958

1997
549,597 287,018 210,635 453,260 421,381 1,269,456 1,044,051 2,231,350 3,041,275 3,652,885 6,328,995 7,262,922 11,050,813 11,833,381 9,766,346 4,002,564 395,281

1998
387,698 238,730 231,975 720,194 367,152 1,230,938 1,191,725 1,535,800 2,558,744 3,272,451 4,886,744 7,215,328 7,932,229 9,077,346 13,413,465 12,111,091 5,765,862 312,440

1999
423,242 191,622 236,305 310,223 517,121 759,839 503,334 1,210,596 1,494,914 2,525,560 3,381,548 4,728,591 6,547,336 7,677,962 10,823,289 15,151,407 14,621,700 6,194,989 263,363

2000
370,738 265,320 160,323 340,728 335,668 1,036,395 750,132 1,106,488 1,203,991 1,883,857 2,863,967 3,794,461 3,830,355 5,018,981 7,375,113 12,230,308 13,619,135 11,998,695 5,190,009 534,041

2001
350,660 235,460 157,722 304,309 336,536 707,643 599,480 880,009 1,178,743 1,693,661 2,067,243 2,174,611 2,997,266 3,409,209 5,295,547 8,094,447 10,778,010 13,267,152 10,291,022 6,055,213 510,417

2002
789,408 343,493 141,022 232,244 534,743 918,048 688,868 1,187,584 1,693,039 2,055,206 2,439,351 2,598,921 4,797,794 3,102,736 4,662,785 7,387,008 10,810,380 12,402,789 17,129,892 14,512,632 5,919,234 232,172

2003
501,202 159,250 252,537 288,952 331,278 511,397 698,868 1,350,632 1,242,772 1,686,305 1,581,331 2,359,313 2,902,229 2,502,168 4,025,752 4,402,440 6,983,952 9,208,308 13,648,935 17,820,815 16,203,954 5,694,665 220,427

43

Exhibit 9 Cumulative Claim Payments by Received Date, Page 1

(source - Exhibit 8 - page1) Received 1981 1982 Date
<=1981 78,210 123,285 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

1983
202,816

1984
224,996 9
30

1985
224,996 9
12,894

1986
233,360 9
31,644

1987
268,133 9
35,276 130,683

1988
279,416 9
38,706 130,683
57,280 5,660

1989
568,160 49,401 50,512
130,683 75,830 85,287 0 7,106 10,000

1990
1,492,287 689,102 801,074
1,321,188 1,544,135 3,736,476 4,012,368 6,073,813 5,425,097 1,814,552

1991
2,363,122 1,325,270 1,418,282 2,460,663 2,769,850 7,387,664 8,024,735 12,140,519 10,840,193 3,629,104 1,196,115

1992
4,726,244 1,976,945 1,911,588 3,095,298 3,825,948 9,139,528 9,940,951 16,741,805 18,155,202 12,505,502 6,883,581
931,981

1993
5,594,536 2,431,216 2,272,958 3,855,800 4,610,515 10,701,544 12,032,945 20,589,896 24,505,009 21,494,608 16,381,508 6,707,132
496,266

44

Exhibit 9 Cumulative Claim Payments by Received Date, Page 2

(source - Exhibit 8 - page 2)

Received

1994

1995

Date <=1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

6,342,839 2,884,058 2,679,955 4,481,080 5,255,171 12,138,362 14,094,276 23,986,023 30,399,351 29,000,389 28,515,134 14,812,607 6,059,849
479,294

6,816,776 3,326,403 3,027,313 5,446,890 5,763,006 13,124,184 15,702,105 26,743,334 35,506,054 36,528,839 40,980,683 25,318,411 16,918,386 4,842,836
348,185

1996
7,365,758 3,653,035 3,311,476 5,899,247 6,504,726 14,392,830 16,758,782 29,901,801 38,984,950 41,569,605 49,571,028 36,428,225 28,309,954 15,576,092 6,657,790
317,958

1997
7,915,356 3,940,053 3,522,111 6,352,507 6,926,107 15,662,286 17,802,832 32,133,151 42,026,225 45,222,490 55,900,022 43,691,148 39,360,767 27,409,473 16,424,136 4,320,521
395,281

1998
8,303,054 4,178,783 3,754,086 7,072,701 7,293,260 16,893,224 18,994,557 33,668,952 44,584,969 48,494,941 60,786,767 50,906,476 47,292,996 36,486,819 29,837,601 16,431,612 6,161,143
312,440

1999
8,726,296 4,370,404 3,990,391 7,382,924 7,810,380 17,653,063 19,497,891 34,879,547 46,079,883 51,020,500 64,168,314 55,635,067 53,840,332 44,164,780 40,660,890 31,583,019 20,782,843 6,507,429
263,363

2000
9,097,033 4,635,724 4,150,715 7,723,652 8,146,048 18,689,457 20,248,023 35,986,035 47,283,874 52,904,358 67,032,282 59,429,529 57,670,687 49,183,761 48,036,003 43,813,327 34,401,978 18,506,124 5,453,372
534,041

2001
9,447,693 4,871,185 4,308,437 8,027,961 8,482,584 19,397,100 20,847,503 36,866,044 48,462,617 54,598,019 69,099,525 61,604,139 60,667,953 52,592,970 53,331,549 51,907,773 45,179,988 31,773,276 15,744,394 6,589,255
510,417

2002
10,237,101 5,214,678 4,449,459 8,260,205 9,017,326
20,315,148 21,536,371 38,053,628 50,155,656 56,653,225 71,538,876 64,203,061 65,465,747 55,695,706 57,994,335 59,294,781 55,990,369 44,176,064 32,874,285 21,101,887
6,429,650 232,172

2003
10,738,303 5,373,927 4,701,995 8,549,158 9,348,604
20,826,545 22,235,239 39,404,261 51,398,428 58,339,530 73,120,207 66,562,373 68,367,976 58,197,874 62,020,087 63,697,221 62,974,321 53,384,373 46,523,220 38,922,701 22,633,605
5,926,837 220,427

45

Exhibit 10 Historical Development Factors by Received Date, Page 1 (source - Exhibit 9 - page 1)

Received
Date <=1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988

1989

1990 1991 1992

1993

1.645 1.109 1.000 1.000
429.793

1.037 1.149 1.000 1.000 2.454 1.115

1.042 1.000 1.097 1.000

2.033 5488.976
1.305 1.000 1.324 15.068

2.627 13.949 15.859 10.110 20.363 43.810

854.731 542.510

1.584 1.923 1.770 1.862 1.794 1.977 2.000 1.999 1.998 2.000

2.000 1.492 1.348 1.258 1.381 1.237 1.239 1.379 1.675 3.446 5.755

1.184 1.230 1.189 1.246 1.205 1.171 1.210 1.230 1.350 1.719 2.380 7.197

46

Exhibit 10 Historical Development Factors by Received Date, Page 2 (source - Exhibit 9)

Received Date
<=1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

1994 1995

1.134 1.186 1.179 1.162 1.140 1.134 1.171 1.165 1.241 1.349 1.741 2.208 12.211

1.075 1.153 1.130 1.216 1.097 1.081 1.114 1.115 1.168 1.260 1.437 1.709 2.792 10.104

1996

1997

1.081 1.098 1.094 1.083 1.129 1.097 1.067 1.118 1.098 1.138 1.210 1.439 1.673 3.216 19.121

1.075 1.079 1.064 1.077 1.065 1.088 1.062 1.075 1.078 1.088 1.128 1.199 1.390 1.760 2.467 13.588

1998
1.049 1.061 1.066 1.113 1.053 1.079 1.067 1.048 1.061 1.072 1.087 1.165 1.202 1.331 1.817 3.803 15.587

1999
1.051 1.046 1.063 1.044 1.071 1.045 1.026 1.036 1.034 1.052 1.056 1.093 1.138 1.210 1.363 1.922 3.373 20.828

2000 2001

1.042 1.061 1.040 1.046 1.043 1.059 1.038 1.032 1.026 1.037 1.045 1.068 1.071 1.114 1.181 1.387 1.655 2.844 20.707

1.039 1.051 1.038 1.039 1.041 1.038 1.030 1.024 1.025 1.032 1.031 1.037 1.052 1.069 1.110 1.185 1.313 1.717 2.887 12.338

2002 2003

1.084 1.071 1.033 1.029 1.063 1.047 1.033 1.032 1.035 1.038 1.035 1.042 1.079 1.059 1.087 1.142 1.239 1.390 2.088 3.202 12.597

1.049 1.031 1.057 1.035 1.037 1.025 1.032 1.035 1.025 1.030 1.022 1.037 1.044 1.045 1.069 1.074 1.125 1.208 1.415 1.845 3.520 25.528

47

Exhibit 11 Received Year-to-Year Development Factors, Page 1

(source - Exhibit 10)
Received Date

2nd/1st 3rd/2nd 4th/3rd 5th/4th 6th/5th 7th/6th 8th/7th 9th/8th 10th/9th 11th/10th 12th/11th 13th/12th

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 10 yr average 5 yr average 5 yr ex hi lo all median selected >89 selected 84-89 selected <84 cumulative >89 cumulative 84-89 cumulative <84

2.000 5.755 7.197 12.211 10.104 19.121 13.588 15.587 20.828 20.707 12.338 12.597 25.528 16.261 18.400 18.044 13.093 25.000 18.044 18.044 592.275 549.820 1029.408

3.446 2.380 2.208 12.211 3.216 2.467 3.803 3.373 2.844 2.887 3.202 3.520

1.719 1.741 1.709 2.792 1.760 1.817 1.922 1.655 1.717 2.088 1.845

3.973 3.165 3.154 3.209 3.520 3.154 3.154 23.691 30.471 57.051

1.905 1.845 1.828 1.760 1.900 1.828 1.828 6.730 9.660 18.087

1.349 1.437 1.439 1.673 1.331 1.363 1.387 1.313 1.390 1.415
1.410 1.374 1.380 1.389 1.380 1.380 1.380 3.542 5.285 9.895

1.260 1.210 1.199 1.390 1.210 1.181 1.185 1.239 1.208
1.231 1.205 1.201 1.210 1.201 1.201 1.201 2.567 3.830 7.170

1.165 1.168 1.138 1.128 1.165 1.202 1.114 1.110 1.142 1.125
1.140 1.138 1.127 1.133 1.127 1.166 1.166 2.137 3.188 5.969

1.171 1.115 1.098 1.088 1.087 1.093 1.138 1.069 1.087 1.074
1.091 1.092 1.085 1.087 1.085 1.128 1.128 1.896 2.733 5.117

1.134 1.114 1.118 1.078 1.072 1.056 1.068 1.071 1.059 1.069
1.066 1.065 1.066 1.069 1.066 1.111 1.111 1.748 2.423 4.536

1.140 1.081 1.067 1.075 1.061 1.052 1.045 1.037 1.052 1.045
1.046 1.046 1.047 1.045 1.047 1.085 1.085 1.640 2.180 4.082

1.162 1.097 1.097 1.062 1.048 1.034 1.037 1.031 1.042 1.079
1.047 1.047 1.040 1.040 1.040 1.083 1.083 1.566 2.010 3.763

1.179 1.216 1.129 1.088 1.067 1.036 1.026 1.032 1.035 1.037
1.035 1.035 1.035 1.035 1.035 1.106 1.179 1.507 1.856 3.474

1.186 1.130 1.083 1.065 1.079 1.026 1.032 1.025 1.038 1.022
1.030 1.030 1.030 1.030 1.030 1.052 1.158 1.455 1.678 2.947

48

Exhibit 11 Received Year-to-Year Development Factors, Page 2

(source - Exhibit 10)

Received 14th/13th

Date

1982

1.153

1983

1.094

1984

1.077

1985

1.053

1986

1.045

1987

1.038

1988

1.024

1989

1.035

1990

1.030

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

10 yr average

1.030

5 yr average

1.030

5 yr ex hi lo

1.030

all median

1.030

selected >89

1.030

selected 84-89 selected <84

1.045 1.124

cumulative >89

1.413

cumulative 84-89

1.596

cumulative <84

2.545

15th/14th 1.098 1.064 1.113 1.071 1.059 1.030 1.032 1.025
1.029 1.040 1.081 1.372 1.526 2.265

16th/15th 1.079 1.066 1.044 1.043 1.038 1.033 1.035
1.028 1.040 1.072 1.334 1.468 2.095

17th/16th 1.061 1.063 1.046 1.041 1.047 1.032
1.027 1.040 1.062 1.297 1.411 1.954

18th/17th 1.046 1.040 1.039 1.063 1.025
1.026 1.040 1.043 1.263 1.357 1.841

19th/18th 1.061 1.038 1.029 1.037
1.025 1.025 1.049 1.231 1.305 1.765

20th/19th 1.051 1.033 1.035
1.023 1.035 1.042 1.201 1.273 1.682

21st/20th 1.071 1.057
1.021 1.025 1.060 1.174 1.230 1.614

1.031

1.150
1.200 1.045

1.040

1.038

1.350

1.523 1.457 1.401

49

Exhibit 12 Calculation of Unpaid Claims by Received Date

(source - Exhibits 9, 10 and 11) (1)

Received
<1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Claims Paid @12/31/03 (from Ex 2)
10,738,303 5,373,927 4,701,995 8,549,158 9,348,604
20,826,545 22,235,239 39,404,261 51,398,428 58,339,530 73,120,207 66,562,373 68,367,976 58,197,874 62,020,087 63,697,221 62,974,321 53,384,373 46,523,220 38,922,701 22,633,605
5,926,837 220,427

(2) Loss
Development Factor
(from Ex 4)
1.401 1.457 1.523 1.230 1.273 1.305 1.357 1.411 1.468 1.372 1.413 1.455 1.507 1.566 1.640 1.748 1.896 2.137 2.567 3.542 6.730 23.691 592.275

853,467,211

(3) Ultimate
Claims @12/31/03 (col 1 x col 2)
$15,047,584 $7,831,704 $7,160,823
$10,515,464 $11,901,025 $27,175,572 $30,174,258 $55,612,361 $75,441,675 $80,059,395 $103,329,678 $96,872,464 $103,012,831 $91,157,708 $101,727,550 $111,325,763 $119,401,651 $114,062,984 $119,403,956 $137,868,881 $152,324,796 $140,412,643 $130,553,086
$1,842,373,850

(4) Unpaid Claims @12/31/03 (col 3 - col 1)
$4,309,281 $2,457,776 $2,458,828 $1,966,306 $2,552,421 $6,349,027 $7,939,020 $16,208,100 $24,043,247 $21,719,865 $30,209,471 $30,310,091 $34,644,855 $32,959,834 $39,707,463 $47,628,541 $56,427,330 $60,678,611 $72,880,736 $98,946,180 $129,691,191 $134,485,806 $130,332,659
$988,906,639

50

Exhibit 13 Future Assessments (2008-2020)

Calendar Year

Beginning Assessments Balance

Interest Misc. Earned Income

2008 $52,116,000 $118,797,000 $792,714

0

2009 $37,668,031 $164,666,620 $775,599

0

2010 $59,281,863 $144,048,667 $943,206

0

2011 $58,618,938 $148,321,475 $1,061,394

0

2012 $74,055,338 $100,922,900 $1,093,839

0

2013 $62,674,591 $85,125,772 $959,812

0

2014 $57,301,872 $56,440,968 $778,419

0

2015 $40,000,457 $57,344,841 $598,378

0

2016 $34,796,822 $46,741,612 $495,003

0

2017 $27,078,570 $46,061,553 $412,621

0

2018 $24,499,007 $40,359,010 $365,362

0

2019 $21,171,236 $37,528,461 $326,891

0

2020 $19,690,158 $31,969,544 $291,119

0

Operating

Reimburse-

Costs ments

$2,200,000 $2,233,000 $2,280,731 $2,220,902 $2,079,598 $1,904,449 $1,751,865 $1,640,539 $1,555,409 $1,492,439 $1,436,073 $1,377,961 $1,324,353

$131,763,242 $141,595,387 $143,374,067 $131,725,567 $111,317,889
$89,553,854 $72,768,937 $61,506,315 $53,399,458 $47,561,298 $42,616,070 $37,958,469 $33,926,739

Ending Balance

Unpaid at Year End

$37,668,031 $59,281,863 $58,618,938 $74,055,338 $62,674,591 $57,301,872 $40,000,457 $34,796,822 $27,078,570 $24,499,007 $21,171,236 $19,690,158 $16,699,729

$1,246,450,946 $1,104,855,560
$961,481,493 $829,755,926 $718,438,036 $628,884,183 $556,115,245 $494,608,931 $441,209,473 $393,648,175 $351,032,104 $313,073,636 $279,146,897

Note:
It is estimated that the operating expenses of the Fund will remain at approximately the level of expenses as of 12/31/2020 since the number of opened claims (and the work associated with them) will remain fairly level for several years following the Board termination date of 12/31/2020.

51

Exhibit 14 Number of Claims by Injury Date - Number of Claims by Injury date

year 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

1981 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1982 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1983 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1984 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1985 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1986 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1987 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1988 4 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1989 3 3 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1990 29 21 38 36 57 46 45 45 21 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1991 21 23 29 29 36 36 57 80 67 48 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1992 39 36 31 36 28 28 55 81 91 81 28 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1993 28 22 31 21 22 46 57 78 56 66 66 15 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1994 16 15 21 21 21 22 45 66 46 79 78 46 15 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1995 15 22 19 21 10 30 21 58 36 55 67 82 48 21 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1996 15 21 16 22 21 23 31 46 37 45 78 80 91 46 15 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1997 16 22 15 21 15 21 33 28 37 36 55 56 78 78 45 10 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1998 38 40 31 21 36 45 58 87 66 79
108 112 129 109 139 120
29 5 0 0 0 0 0 0

1999 28 37 28 29 21 41 44 71 68 55 78 83 97
105 158 120
68 22
1 0 0 0 0 0

2000 28 31 21 28 21 53 48 67 57 56 97 67 60 86
106 105 130
83 21
1 0 0 0 0

2001 48 37 45 31 29 46 46 45 52 46 55 36 57 55 95 94
127 132
66 38
3 0 0 0

2002 40 23 16 29 29 28 28 48 56 37 67 39 46 49 82 78 78
105 105
81 39
1 0 0

2003 29 24 38 16 21 29 45 37 36 39 67 46 38 46 55 84 69
136 137 165
92 16
1 0

3

1

3

4

2

5

5

6 10 344 432 537 511 494 508 588 567 1252 1154 1166 1183 1104 1266

52

Exhibit 15 Cumulative Number of Claims by Injury Date

- Cumulative Number of Claims by Injury Date

year 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

1981 3

1982 4

1983 7

1984 11

1985 11 2

1986 12 6

1987 13 8 1 1

1988 17 9 1 1 1

1989 20 12 2 1 2 1 1

1990 49 33 40 37 59 47 46 45 21 6

1991 70 56 69 66 95 83
103 125
88 54
6

1992 109 92 100 102 123 111 158 206 179 135 34 3

1993 137 114 131 123 145 157 215 284 235 201 100 18 3

1994 153 129 152 144 166 179 260 350 281 280 178 64 18 3

1995 168 151 171 165 176 209 281 408 317 335 245 146 66 24 3

1996 183 172 187 187 197 232 312 454 354 380 323 226 157 70 18 1

1997 199 194 202 208 212 253 345 482 391 416 378 282 235 148 63 11 1

1998 237 234 233 229 248 298 403 569 457 495 486 394 364 257 202 131 30 5

1999 265 271 261 258 269 339 447 640 525 550 564 477 461 362 360 251 98 27 1

2000 293 302 282 286 290 392 495 707 582 606 661 544 521 448 466 356 228 110 22 1

2001 341 339 327 317 319 438 541 752 634 652 716 580 578 503 561 450 355 242 88 39 3

2002 381 362 343 346 348 466 569 800 690 689 783 619 624 552 643 528 433 347 193 120 42 1

2003 410 386 381 362 369 495 614 837 726 728 850 665 662 598 698 612 502 483 330 285 134 17 1

53

Exhibit 16 Number of Claims by Injury Date Development

- Number of Claims by Injury Date - Development

year 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

1981 1.00

1982 1.33

1983 1.75

1984 1.57

1985 1.00 1.00

1986 1.09 3.00

1987 1.08 1.33 1.00 1.00

1988 1.31 1.13 1.00 1.00 1.00

1989 1.18 1.33 2.00 1.00 2.00 1.00 1.00

1990 2.45 2.75
20.00 37.00 29.50 47.00 46.00
1.00 1.00 1.00

1991 1.43 1.70 1.73 1.78 1.61 1.77 2.24 2.78 4.19 9.00 1.00

1992 1.56 1.64 1.45 1.55 1.29 1.34 1.53 1.65 2.03 2.50 5.67 1.00

1993 1.26 1.24 1.31 1.21 1.18 1.41 1.36 1.38 1.31 1.49 2.94 6.00 1.00

1994 1.12 1.13 1.16 1.17 1.14 1.14 1.21 1.23 1.20 1.39 1.78 3.56 6.00 1.00

1995 1.10 1.17 1.13 1.15 1.06 1.17 1.08 1.17 1.13 1.20 1.38 2.28 3.67 8.00 1.00

1996 1.09 1.14 1.09 1.13 1.12 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.12 1.13 1.32 1.55 2.38 2.92 6.00 1.00

1997 1.09 1.13 1.08 1.11 1.08 1.09 1.11 1.06 1.10 1.09 1.17 1.25 1.50 2.11 3.50
11.00 1.00

1998 1.19 1.21 1.15 1.10 1.17 1.18 1.17 1.18 1.17 1.19 1.29 1.40 1.55 1.74 3.21
11.91 30.00
1.00

1999 1.12 1.16 1.12 1.13 1.08 1.14 1.11 1.12 1.15 1.11 1.16 1.21 1.27 1.41 1.78 1.92 3.27 5.40 1.00

2000 1.11 1.11 1.08 1.11 1.08 1.16 1.11 1.10 1.11 1.10 1.17 1.14 1.13 1.24 1.29 1.42 2.33 4.07
22.00 1.00

2001 1.16 1.12 1.16 1.11 1.10 1.12 1.09 1.06 1.09 1.08 1.08 1.07 1.11 1.12 1.20 1.26 1.56 2.20 4.00
39.00 1.00

2002 1.12 1.07 1.05 1.09 1.09 1.06 1.05 1.06 1.09 1.06 1.09 1.07 1.08 1.10 1.15 1.17 1.22 1.43 2.19 3.08
14.00 1.00

2003 1.08 1.07 1.11 1.05 1.06 1.06 1.08 1.05 1.05 1.06 1.09 1.07 1.06 1.08 1.09 1.16 1.16 1.39 1.71 2.38 3.19
17.00 1.00

54

Exhibit 17 Estimate of Opened Claims through 2003

- Claims Closed with no Payments Made

Source: GSITF files

Year

Claims

Closed

(no payment)

1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

1,231 536 552 539 577 688 690 774
1,100 1,371 2,138 2,672 2,968 3,836 4,750 5,185 5,105 5,939 6,541 7,114 8,523 10,349 12,083

Opened Claims
711 967 1,081 1,185 1,426 1,595 1,813 2,160 2,927 3,607 4,588 5,663 7,226 8,940 10,379 10,965 11,140 11,921 9,998 10,217 12,118 14,995 19,450

Yr-to-yr Opened Change
1.36 1.12 1.10 1.20 1.12 1.14 1.19 1.36 1.23 1.27 1.23 1.28 1.24 1.16 1.06 1.02 1.07 0.84 1.02 1.19 1.24 1.30

55

Exhibit 18 Estimate of Opened Claims through 2020

Exhibit 18 - Open Claims 2004 through 2020

Year

Opened Without Board
Termination

Opened With Board Termination

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

20,423 21,444 22,516 23,642 24,824 26,065 27,368 28,737 30,173 31,682 33,266 34,929 36,676 38,510 40,435 42,457 44,580

20,423 21,444 22,516 23,642 24,824 26,063 27,327 28,384 29,127 29,752 29,331 29,357 29,008 28,291 27,575 26,480 25,089

Opened With Payment
3300 3591 3689 3786 3884 4078 4275 4441 4557 4655 4589 4593 4538 4426 4314 4143 3925

Note:
The length of time for which there will continue to be active claim reimbursement in the Fund is contingent upon the life expectancy of the injured workers to which the last active claims apply. For example, if an eighteen-year-old individual is permanently injured on June 30, 2008 (the final injury-date of Fund application), and if that injured individual lives to be eighty years of age, this claim will remain active until 2070.

56

Exhibit 19 Claim Payments by Accepted Date, Page 1

Source:
accepted year
<=1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

GSITF 1981
78210

files 1982
45074.55

1983
71198.3 8332.69

1984 22180
39

1985 12863.8

1986
15724 11389.87

1987
34773.16 3632.08
130682.62

1988
11283.34 3429.74 57279.93 5660.35

1989
261960.14
49391.78 26784.16 11806.17
18549.85 32720.43 64012.76

1990
424069.71 304921.79 592893.69 284810.81 938919.02 1780305.4 3754997.1 3625777.2 5615594.1 7245308.7

1991
454270.39 301066.01 438625.77 249311.59 651659.58 1780305.4 3754997.1 3625777.2 5615594.1 7245308.7 8933524.5

1992
1356963.1 240119.87 629259.81 307052.19 508958.51 697653.29 1824443.9 1717567.1 2552462.1 6318602.7 8656691.3 9506360.5

1993
312647.38 438108.52 401451.13 225986.18 690402.63 732703.36
1799219 1910848.8 3152302.9 5174471.3
6617344 10717614 9175494.8

57

Exhibit 19 Claim Payments by Accepted Date, Page 2

accepted year
<=1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

262704.44 324320.72 392183.01 327617.85 566214.84 622064.14 1454041.9 1718193.7
2861336 4134129.2 5935251.4
8436614 8974507 13038071

252690.18 213848.66 333731.23 195901.04 452589.59 377663.46 1166050.1
1145752 2314675 3978011.7 5132671 6715992.6 6630030 17375491 12850267

308194.4 150119.49 380454.37 225215.37 462356.85 543119.03 1389949.2 1294847.9 1929598.8 2648531.2
3279791 4994732.5 6492248.6
8161995 15154557 17357912

320155.02 161221.18 316579.15 137686.88 327335.17 608872.33 1211399.9 1159497.9 1394448.1 1515556.1 2986461.2 4264239.1 3597523.6
7130116 9732452.2 16954467 11964921

173501.03 183883.02 242849.89 150504.85 440084.47 588549.22 1378809.1 910184.85
1510812 1565746.8 1891740.6 3944082.7 3571100.4 5488340.6 7204696.6 10559453 17647658 14464941

158199.29 160126.98 274230.65
94028.87 381108.84 303882.31 701161.57 942397.82 893935.36
1066609 1097175.1 3231703.7 2194050.3 4292306.5
5017064 7438599.3 9640254.2 22551982 16873926

178140.03 134518.81 240704.82 174194.43 232830.94
404151.7 1033315.2 730285.63 654677.19 1108633.7 1137400.2 1928719.7 2073688.1 3341414.5
3147085 4984464.7 7512845.1 10528065 21035916 13363335

245061.41 181455.93 148659.25
58659.43 258961.61 344654.71 534578.21 745745.84 575127.83 1027750.6 1243426.1 1347433.1 1293595.1 2025955.5 2594858.9 4363440.7 3980358.5 7123620.2 13135649 16386052 13732230

169398.57 245271.41 500989.11 304116.29 308953.59 498402.99 1009347.7 633346.99
803290 1189250.3 1205701.7 2343485.8 1479865.2 2672329.6 2328300.4 3528047.5 4843926.9 6927485.5 10798767 12025421 22151845 18470523

121188.29 161654.65
286169 253844.26 188719.43
335216.9 638731.05 713268.57 1092505.8 1164804.5 1029749.1 1397790.4 1416326.5 1620520.9 1995177.9
2623878 3068789.5 4244553.4 7323176.7 8098911.2 12489488 23637779 20588370

59931.07 139843.67 307136.46
39704.69 101450.41 324311.96 655227.52
333562.2 341376.18 527018.02 485160.82
1035256 1025070.5 815657.41 2097289.9 1677277.5 1521567.6
2804991 4520520.3 3491267.7 8175352.5 12186837 26636143 12127869

58

Exhibit 20 Claim Payments by Assigned Year Source: GSITF files

assign year
1981

1981 -89

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

29800 29800 59637

12

21548 727335

21548 727335 2931676

256339 3309147 8254929 2454835

68751 2748193 6390388 3699256
243296

1536 1943626 6095381 3545348
414255 495322

1203145 4901226 2820258
364360 632102 136191

746438 3169030 2015606
372901 257069 458223
60641

579797 2751515 1509116
148789 199909 201158 272795 264733

831434 2196900 1751569
241538 65628
188387 125872 2760815 6257288

448041 1423334 1364490
155455 43645
218928 218451 3903497 16449364 7465888

419880 1214632
648262 44007
144630 32240
204760 1157503 7001119 14558972 3988796

312082 859567 608545
9792 40084 25443 233608 584537 4913050 8238493 10768739

337517 1449756
772587 41529 10570 18756 11785
727948 4306341 7812590 11286011 13893488 5274696

307539 1156129
508167 16726 9200 26594 123
562524 3832920 6105201 9170336 14192357 25183889 3853942

59

Exhibit 21 Re-opened Claims
Source: GSITF files Reopened Claims
Year
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

# of reopened claims
5 35 40 42 42 39 70 42 96 89 125 219 387 675 643 834

60

Exhibit 22 Financial Information

Exhibit 22 - Financial Information

CY

Funds Available

on Jan. 1

1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

0 1,011,278.00
$1,216,347 $1,453,270
$299,780 $301,931 $326,047 $3,407,073 $3,851,499 $5,677,532 $6,214,706 $7,854,251 $3,776,533 $13,027,936 $16,110,480 $17,820,217 $18,206,659 $26,329,971 $30,583,142 $36,440,360 $59,649,655 $49,068,047 $38,932,574 $64,350,976 $58,698,207 $31,439,524

source: GSITF files
Investment Income Earned During Yr
$32,089 $81,515 $120,115 $174,133 $89,109 $95,915 $314,718 $191,839 $400,083 $331,381 $743,378 $663,095 $825,683 $1,061,814 $835,035 $685,709 $1,053,368 $1,856,238 $1,575,833 $2,360,735 $2,958,383 $2,252,092 $2,629,794 $2,609,208 $844,987 $599,199

61

Funds Available at Year End
$1,011,278 $1,216,347 $1,453,270 $1,232,377
$301,931 $330,776 $3,407,073 $3,851,499 $5,677,532 $6,214,706 $7,854,251 $3,776,533 $13,027,936 $16,110,480 $17,820,217 $18,206,659 $26,329,971 $30,583,142 $36,440,360 $59,649,655 $49,068,047 $38,932,574 $63,479,516 $58,698,207 $31,439,524 $63,454,579

Exhibit 23 - Assessment Information

Source: GSITF Calendar Year
1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

files Total Payments
0 54,016.00 136,001.00 595,310.00 2,771,374.00 5,084,468.00 6,413,700.71 8,165,229.83 9,574,956.38 11,593,389.96 13,864,271.63 18,830,979.21 24,211,970.78 28,360,149.45 33,637,381.99 42,169,757.00 49,594,713.40 58,971,596.40 64,618,356.86 62,706,605.17 63,391,170.56 75,544,874.19 71,389,637.98 69,593,011.28 88,294,383.53 88,546,770.22

Assessment Base Payments 946,185.90
1,982,597.00 4,978,085.91 9,036,576.66 8,362,528.30 11,087,657.95 11,805,371.09 14,944,919.16 17,480,773.71 30,534,653.38 30,901,760.50 35,075,381.84 42,784,254.89 57,724,907.47 62,674,151.19 74,855,495.41 79,391,715.17 52,797,292.50 64,802,974.79 96,274,726.92 64,681,955.91 66,617,175.79 126,601,810.12 94,996,319.37

Assessment Factor one half % premium tax
0.01180729 0.0203187
0.03313389 0.0268572
0.02917735 0.02616637 0.02898469 0.02783897 0.04344195 0.03776998 0.03874663 0.04747496 0.06574645 0.07555032 0.09639421 0.09124987 0.06141768 0.07249122 0.10832108 0.06504674 0.06234019 0.11690228 0.08475113

Assessments Received 945,810.00 0 0
1,982,597.00 2,670,591.00 4,964,604.00 9,067,890.88 8,405,390.39 11,001,581.72 11,886,408.21 14,922,191.15 14,490,867.84 33,165,318.76 30,894,368.43 35,238,290.67 42,758,418.56 57,665,738.50 62,434,238.93 70,380,529.65 85,071,614.53 51,533,983.10 64,873,740.88 95,584,742.85 63,342,526.34 62,205,243.78 121,959,129.72

62

Exhibit 24 Opened Claims with Payment Source: GSITF files

Subsequent Injury Trust Fund

# of Claims Receiving Payments

1981

3

1982

1

1983

2

1984

3

1985

1

1986

4

1987

4

1988

4

1989

13

1990

1308

1991

1605

1992

1808

1993

2036

1994

2303

1995

2650

1996

3024

1997

3033

1998

3090

1999

3451

2000

3174

2001

2939

2002

3165

2003

3174

2004

2729

63

CHART GUIDE

Charts Portraying Information Relative to the Data Used In This Analysis

Chart 1 -

Paid and Ultimate Claims (Injury Year 1981 2003)

Chart 2a

Ultimate Claims (Injury Year 1993 2003)

Chart 2b

Ultimate Claims (Injury Year 1993 2003)

Chart 2c

Selected Claims (Injury Year 1993 2003)

Chart 3 -

Estimated Unpaid Claims

Chart 4 -

Paid and Ultimate Reimbursements through 2020

Chart 5 -

Runoff of Unpaid Reimbursements 2007 2020

Chart 6 -

Cumulative Paid to Ultimate 2008-2020

Chart 7 -

Subsequent Year Assessments - 2008-2020

Chart 8 -

Open Claims 2004-2020

Chart 9 -

Open Claims with Payment

64

Chart 1 Paid and Ultimate Claims by Injury Year

160,000,000

140,000,000 120,000,000

CHART 1 PAID AND ULTIMATE CLAIM REIMBURSEMENTS
BY INJURY YEAR

100,000,000

80,000,000 60,000,000

paid ultimate

40,000,000

20,000,000

0 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

65

Chart 2a Ultimate Claim Trend by Injury Year (1993-2003)

170

CHART 2a

160

Assumption #1

Ultimate Claim Trend

150

by Injury Year

1993-2003

140

projected to 2007

x 1,000,000

130

120

110

100

90

80 1993

1995

1997

1999

y = 6.8302x - 13534 R2 = 0.947

2001

2003

2005

2007

66

Chart 2b Ultimate Claims by Injury Year (20032007)
$285,000,000

$265,000,000 $245,000,000

Chart 2b
Assumption #2 Ultimate Claims
by Injury-year 2003-2007

$225,000,000

$205,000,000

$185,000,000

$165,000,000

$145,000,000
2003

2004

2005

67

2006

2007

Chart 2c- Selected Ultimate Claims by Injury Year (2003-2007)

$225,000,000 $215,000,000 $205,000,000 $195,000,000

CHART 2c
SELECTED Ultimates by Injury-Year 2003-2007

$185,000,000

$175,000,000

$165,000,000

$155,000,000

$145,000,000
2003

2004

2005

68

2006

2007

Chart 3 Estimated Unpaid Claims (2007 2020)

$1,400,000,000

CHART 3

$1,200,000,000

Estimated Unpaid 2007 - 2020

$1,000,000,000 $800,000,000

low end of unpaid range high end of unpaid range estimated unpaid

$600,000,000

$400,000,000

$200,000,000

$0
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

69

Chart 4 Paid and Ultimate Reimbursements through 2020
$250,000,000

CHART 4

Paid and Ultimate Reimbursements

$200,000,000

by Injury-Year

@ 12/31/2020

$150,000,000

$100,000,000

Ultimate Reimbursements Paid at 12/31/2020

$50,000,000

$0 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 6/08
Note: There are no paid or ultimate reimbursements for injury-dates beyond June 30, 2008.

70

Chart 5 Runoff of Unpaid Reimbursements (2007 2020)

$1,200,000,000 $1,000,000,000

CHART 5
Runoff of Unpaid Reimbursements

$800,000,000

$600,000,000

$400,000,000

$200,000,000

$0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

71

Chart 6 Cumulative Paid to Ultimate (2007 2020)
$3,000,000,000
CHART 6 Cumulative Paid to Ultimate
$2,500,000,000

$2,000,000,000

$1,500,000,000

$1,000,000,000

$500,000,000

$0 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

72

Chart 7 Subsequent Year Assessments (2008 2020)

$160,000,000 $140,000,000

CHART 7
Subsequent Year Assessments

$120,000,000

$100,000,000

$80,000,000

$60,000,000

$40,000,000

$20,000,000

$0
2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

73

Chart 8 Open Claims (2004 2020)
45,000
CHART 8
40,000
Opened Claims 2004-2020
35,000

30,000

25,000

20,000 15,000 10,000
5,000

Opened Without Fund Closure Opened With Fund Closure Opened With Payment

0 2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

Note: The length of time for which there will continue to be active claim reimbursement in the Fund is contingent upon the life expectancy of the injured workers to which the last active claims apply. For example, if an eighteen-year-old individual is permanently injured on June 30, 2008 (the final injury date of Fund application), and if that injured individual lives to be eighty years of age, this claim will remain active until the year 2070.

74

Chart 9 Open Claims with Payment (2004 2020)
4,000
CHART 9
Opened Claims With Payment
3,500

least squares regression line (1997-2003)

3,000

2,500

2,000 1,500

Opened with payment

1,000 1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

75