High school graduate outcomes report : an analysis of postsecondary enrollment and degree completion of Georgia high school graduates

High School Graduate Outcomes Report
An Analysis of Postsecondary Enrollment and Degree Completion of Georgia High School Graduates
Hannah Page
July 2016

Executive Summary
This report serves as a follow-up to the "Georgia Students' High School to College Transition" report published by GOSA in 2009, which presents college enrollment by school system and investigates the relationship between college enrollment as well as student-level factors. This report goes beyond the previous report by adding a layer of analysis using newly available data from Georgia's Academic and Workforce Analysis and Research Data System (GAAWARDS) and investigates relationships at the high school level. The report also acts as a companion tool to the High School Graduate Outcomes Dashboard, launched in January 2016, which allows users to drill down into the data from high school graduating classes between 2007 and 2014 and investigate where students enrolled in college, as well as the overall outcome of their enrollment.i
This analysis follows the high school graduating classes of 2008, 2009, and 2010 to analyze patterns in college enrollment and degree completion. Using data from these three graduating classes allows for an analysis of degree completion since at least five years have passed since high school graduation.ii Additionally, the rates of college enrollment and degree completion are examined by high school to identify differences between high schools. Figure 1 presents the total number of high school graduates, the total that enrolled in college within 12 months, and the total who completed a degree within 5 years.
Figure 1: Outcomes for High School Graduates (2008-2010)

300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000
50,000 -

256,646

180,425 (70%)
70%

77,680 (30%)

High School Enrolled within 12 Completed

Graduates

Months

Degree within 5

Years

i In this report, "college" refers to colleges, universities, and technical colleges. ii In this report, "degree" refers to certificates, associate's, bachelor's, master's, doctorates, and professional degrees.
i

The figure below presents the race/ethnicity percentages among of high school graduates, the number who enrolled in college within 12 months, and the number who completed a degree within 5 years.iii Students who enrolled in college and those who earned degrees within this cohort are proportionally more likely to be white and Asian and less likely to be Hispanic and black when compared to the original high school graduate cohort. It is important to note that the outcomes presented in this paper should not be interpreted as cause-effect because additional factors outside of the scope of this analysis may play a role in the relationship.
Figure 1: Demographics of Graduates, Enrollees and Five-Year Degree Completers

High School Graduates (2008-2010) Enrolled within 12 Months
Degree Completers within Five Years 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

White Black Hispanic Asian Other

Selected findings from the analysis of high school graduates between 2008 and 2010 include:
Enrollment in College within 12 Months o 70.3% of high school graduates enrolled in college within 12 months. o Of those high school graduates enrolling, 86.1% of students elected instate colleges. o Of the students enrolling in colleges outside of Georgia, 57.1% enrolled in the neighboring states of Alabama, South Carolina, Tennessee, Florida, and North Carolina. o High schools with higher participation rates on the SAT/ACT and AP tended to have higher enrollment rates, as do high schools with higher average three-year high school graduation rate (2008-2010). o High schools with high eligibility rates for free or reduced-price lunch (FRL) tended to have lower college enrollment rates.
Degree Completion o Only 30.3% of the students in this study completed a certificate or degree within five years. o Compared to all high school graduates, Hispanic and black students were proportionally underrepresented among degree completers, while white and Asian students were proportionally overrepresented.

iii Degree completers waiting more than twelve months after high school graduation to enroll in college are included in the enrollment group in Figure 1.
ii

o 52.7% of high school graduates were eligible for FRL, but only 22.6% of degree completers five years later were FRL-eligible.
Figure 3: Graduates, Enrollees and Five-Year Degree Completers by FRL Status

High School Graduates (2008-2010)

52.7

Enrolled within 12 Months

30.8

Degree Completers within Five Years

22.6

0

20

40

47.3

69.2

77.4

60

80

FRL Not FRL
% 100

o 18.2% of students who require remediation in math and English at Georgia public colleges completed a degree within five years, compared to 45.0% of students who did not require remediation.
o High schools with higher FRL-eligibility rates tended to have lower degree completion rates.
o High schools with high AP exam participation rates and high school graduation rates tended to have higher degree completion rates.

iii

Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................. I TABLE OF TABLES AND FIGURES.........................................................................................V TABLE OF ABBREVIATIONS ................................................................................................. VI INTRODUCTION ...........................................................................................................................7 DATA AND METHODOLOGY ....................................................................................................7 HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATE COHORT DEMOGRAPHICS .................................................8 STATEWIDE COLLEGE ENROLLMENT ................................................................................9 PATTERNS AND OUTCOMES IN GEORGIA'S COLLEGE ENROLLMENT BY HIGH SCHOOL ........................................................................................................................................ 11
Geographic Patterns ................................................................................................. 12 College Enrollment and Other Characteristics ......................................................... 17
STATEWIDE DEGREE COMPLETION RATES ....................................................................22 PATTERNS IN HIGH SCHOOL RATES OF CERTIFICATE AND DEGREE COMPLETION .............................................................................................................................24
Relationship with Other Characteristics................................................................... 28 Comparison of Enrollment Rates and Degree Completion Rates ............................ 31
CONCLUSION ..............................................................................................................................32 APPENDICES ...............................................................................................................................34
Appendix A. High School Outcomes Calculation Guide ......................................... 34 Appendix B: High School Code Changes ................................................................ 36 Appendix C: Degree Ranking .................................................................................. 37
iv

Table of Tables and Figures Figure 1: Outcomes for High School Graduates (2008-2010) ............................................ i Figure 2: Demographics of Graduates, Enrollees and Five-Year Degree Completers......ii Figure 3: Graduates, Enrollees and Five-Year Degree Completers by FRL Status..........iii Figure 4: Georgia's High School Graduates by High School Location (2008-2010) .......... Table 1: Demographics of High School Graduates Enrolling in Colleges within 12 Months ................................................................................................................................ 9 Figure 5: 2008-2010 High School Graduates Enrolling in College within 12 Months.... 10 Table 2: College Enrollment Rate Summary Statistics ..................................................... 11 Figure 6: Density Plot of College Enrollment Rates ........................................................ 11 Table 3: Top In-State and Out-of-State Institutions by Enrollment .................................. 12 Table 4: College Enrollment by Out-of-State and In-State............................................... 12 Figure 7: In-State Enrollment by College Type and Size ................................................. 13 Figure 8: Out-of-State Enrollment.................................................................................... 14 Table 5: Summary Statistics for District Enrollment Rates .............................................. 15 Figure 9: Map of District Enrollment Rates ..................................................................... 16 Table 6: Summary Statistics of Percentage of Graduates Eligible for FRL by High School .......................................................................................................................................... 17 Figure 10: College Enrollment Rate by Free and Reduced-Price Lunch Population ...... 18 Table 7: ACT/SAT Participation Rates by High School ................................................... 19 Figure 11: High School College Enrollment by ACT/SAT Participation ......................... 19 Table 8: AP Exam Participation Rates by High School ................................................... 20 Figure 12: College Enrollment by AP Exam Participation .............................................. 20 Table 9: High School Graduation Rate Summary Statistics (2008-2010) ........................ 21 Figure 13: College Enrollment Rates and Average High School Graduation Rates........ 21 Table 10: Demographics of High School Graduates and Five Year Degree Completers 22 Figure 14: Highest Degrees by Type Earned within Five Years ...................................... 23 Figure 15: Degree Completion by Learning Support ....................................................... 23 Table 11: Degree Completion by High School Summary Statistics.................................. 24 Figure 16: Density Plot of High School Degree Completion Rates ................................ 24 Table 12: Summary Statistics for District Enrollment Percentages ................................. 25 Figure 17: Map of Degree Completion Rates by District................................................. 26 Figure 18: Five-Year Degree Completers by State .......................................................... 27 Figure 19: Degree Completion Rates by Free and Reduced-Price Lunch ....................... 28 Figure 20: Degree Completion Rates by AP Exam Participation .................................... 29 Figure 21: Average High School Graduation Rates by Degree Completion.................... 30 Figure 22: College Enrollment by Degree Completion Rates .......................................... 31 Figure 23: Demographics of Graduates, Enrollees and Five-Year Degree Completers.. 32 Figure 24: Graduates, Enrollees and Five-Year Degree Completers by FRL Status....... 33 Table 13: Degree/Certificate Ranking .............................................................................. 35 Table 14: High School Code Changes .............................................................................. 36
v

Table of Abbreviations

ACT AP

American College Test Advanced Placement

GICA GOSA

APS FRL GAAWARDS
GaDOE

Atlanta Public Schools Free and ReducedPrice Lunch Georgia's Academic and Workforce Analysis and Research Data System Georgia Department of Education

LEP NSC TCSG
USG

Georgia Independent College Association Governor's Office of Student Achievement Limited English Proficiency National Student Clearinghouse Technical College System of Georgia
University System of Georgia

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High School Graduate Outcomes
Introduction
Building on GOSA's 2009 Post-Secondary Enrollment report, this analysis explores the relationships between student and high school characteristics and college enrollment and degree completion.1 It follows the high school graduate cohorts of 2008, 2009, and 2010 with the overall goal of exploring the following questions:
Are certain groups of students who graduate more likely to enroll in college within 12 months or earn a certificate or degree within 5 years?
What high school characteristics are associated with college enrollment and degree completion?
This report also serves as a companion to GOSA's High School Graduate Outcomes Dashboard and employs the same business rules as used in the dashboard.2
This report investigates how individual student characteristics, such as gender, race/ethnicity, and disability status, are related to college enrollment and degree completion. It also investigates how high school characteristics, such as the percentage of students taking Advanced Placement (AP) exams and the average graduation rate, are related to college enrollment and degree completion. Finally, geographic patterns are analyzed at the district, state, and national level. It is important to note that the outcomes presented in this paper should not be interpreted as cause-effect because additional factors outside of the scope of this analysis may play a role in the relationship.
The report is divided into five parts. The first section describes the data used in this report, followed by a second section that has a discussion of composition of the high school graduate cohort. The third section presents information on high school graduates enrolling in college within twelve months, and the fourth focuses on those students who earned degree within five years of high school graduation. The report concludes with a summary of findings and avenues for further research.
Data and Methodology
This report utilizes data from Georgia's longitudinal data system, GAAWARDS, which applies a matching algorithm that links records from participating agencies across multiple years. Using these matched data, this report analyzes the college enrollment and degree attainment rates for students who graduated from high school during the 20072008, 2008-2009, and 2009-2010 school years.3 Using data from these three cohorts allows for an analysis of degree completion since at least five years have passed since high school graduation.
1 In this report, "college" refers to colleges, universities, and technical colleges. "Degree" refers to certificates, associate's, bachelor's, master's, doctorates, and professional degrees. 2 For more information on the calculations used in the Dashboard, click here. 3 Detailed information about the treatment of duplicate enrollments is located in the calculation guide in Appendix A. During the three-year period, at least nine high schools within districts changed school codes while retaining the same school name. Please refer to Appendix B for an explanation and table of all high schools impacted by the school code changes.
7

High School Graduate Outcomes

This report matches all of Georgia's public high school graduates in this cohort with college enrollment and degree attainment records using a unique identifier called the GAAWARDS ID. The data also include demographic information, including gender, race/ethnicity, disability status, limited English proficiency (LEP), and eligibility for free or reduced-price lunch (FRL).4 This report presents subgroup information as descriptive information only.

High School Graduate Cohort Demographics

Over a quarter of a million students make up the aggregated high school graduating classes during the three years. These high school graduates represent all of Georgia's city and county districts, as well as state charter schools active during these years.5 These students graduated from 414 high schools across the state of Georgia, ranging from combined class sizes of 10 in DeKalb County's Destiny Academy of Excellence and Quitman County High School to 2,265 in Gwinnett County's Brookwood High School.6

When the three years of high school graduating classes are combined, female graduates outnumbered male graduates by more than five percentage points (52.5% compared to 47.5%). More than a third (36.6%) of the graduates were eligible for free and reduced-priced lunches. A third of the high school graduates were black, and more than half are white.

Figure 4: Georgia's High School Graduates by High School Location (2008-2010)

Figure 3 shows a map of the graduates by high school and size of the combined graduating classes. The map shows a clustering of high schools in Atlanta, Augusta, Columbus, Macon, and Savannah. Although high schools are clustered around the metro Atlanta area, the majority (56.0%) of high school graduates came from high schools located outside of the metro Atlanta area. 7

4 For all of these groupings, the data represent the student's graduating year. 5 Eleventh and twelfth graders from Clay County attend high school in Randolph County. 6 High school graduating classes with fewer than 10 total students were excluded in this analysis. 7 The metro area is defined by the Atlanta Regional Commission as the ten-county metropolitan area (http://www.atlantaregional.com/about-us/the-region). In addition to these districts, the following metro area city school systems are included: Atlanta Public Schools (APS), Buford City, Decatur City, and Marietta City Schools.
8

High School Graduate Outcomes

Statewide College Enrollment

Using college enrollment data from GAAWARDS, GOSA determined whether students enrolled in colleges within the Technical College System of Georgia (TCSG) or the University System of Georgia (USG), private in-state schools, or out-of-state schools within twelve months of high school graduation.8 The table below presents the demographics of these enrolling students. Compared to the high school graduates, students who are female, Asian, white, and live in the metro-Atlanta area were proportionally more likely to enroll in college within 12 months, while black students, Hispanic students, and students who qualified for FRL and LEP status were proportionally less likely to enroll. It should be noted that these data are descriptive in nature and are used to summarize the sample of students.

Table 1: Demographics of High School Graduates Enrolling in Colleges within 12 Months

Demographic Indicator
Female Male Asian Black Hispanic Other White Free and Reduced-Price Lunch Limited English Proficiency Students with Disabilities Metro-Atlanta

High School Graduating Classes (n=256,646) 52.5% 47.5% 3.5% 35.5% 6.0% 2.3% 52.7% 36.6% 1.4% 5.1% 44.0%

Enrollees in College (n= 180,425) 55.5% 45.5% 4.0% 34.0% 4.1% 2.2% 55.7% 30.8% 0.7% 3.8% 45.6%

8 Please refer to the calculation guide for information on how GOSA treated students with multiple enrollments during the year following high school graduation.
9

High School Graduate Outcomes
The figure below presents the percentage of high school graduates enrolled by type of college, along with those students who did not enroll in any college during this time period. The plurality (45%) enrolled in USG institutions, followed by 10 % each enrolling in out-of-state and TCSG institutions. Five percent of students enrolled in private, in-state institutions. Of enrolled students, the majority (86%) enrolled in programs within the state of Georgia.
Figure 5: 2008-2010 High School Graduates Enrolling in College within 12 Months

30%

45%

10%
5% 10%

USG TCSG Private, in-state Out-of-state Not enrolling

10

High School Graduate Outcomes

Patterns and Outcomes in Georgia's College Enrollment by High School

The following section presents an analysis of the college enrollment rate calculated at the high school level, followed by an analysis of geographic patterns and student characteristics.

To calculate the enrollment rate by high school, students from each graduating high school class enrolling in college within 12 months were divided by the total number of high school graduates.9 The table below presents the summary statistics for the college enrollment rate at the high school level. Within an average high school, 66.7% of high school graduates enrolled in a college within twelve months. This rate ranged from 17.1% at Jackson County's Regional Evening Alternative School to 94.0% at Richmond County's Davidson Magnet School. The middle 50% of schools had enrollment rates between 60.6% and 74.6%, as presented in in the figure below. Many of the high schools with lower enrollment rates tended to be from non-traditional schools, including alternative and evening schools, while higher performers were often more selective magnet schools.

Table 2: College Enrollment Rate Summary Statistics

Min Enrollment Rate 17.1

Average 66.7

Max Standard Deviation 94.0 12.5

Figure 6: Density Plot of College Enrollment Rates

9 Full calculation information for the enrollment percentage available in Appendix A.
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High School Graduate Outcomes

Geographic Patterns
Utilizing the 12-month enrollment data, the table below presents the top enrolling in-state and out-of-state colleges and universities. All of the top ten in-state institutions were USG colleges and universities, and half were located within the metro Atlanta area. For the top enrolling out-of-state institutions, half were located in Alabama and the fifth highest enrolling institution, the University of Phoenix, offers online courses and may include students staying in Georgia.

Table 3: Top In-State and Out-of-State Institutions by Enrollment

Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

In-State institutions University of Georgia Georgia Perimeter College Georgia Southern University Georgia State University Kennesaw State University Valdosta State University Gainesville State College University of West Georgia Georgia Institute of Technology Gordon State College

Out-of-State institutions Auburn University (AL) University of Alabama (AL) Jacksonville State University (AL) Alabama State University (AL) University Of Phoenix (AZ) Tuskegee University (AL) Florida A&M University (FL) University Of South Carolina (SC) Benedict College (SC) University Of Mississippi (MS)

Students who elect to stay within the state differ from those attending an out-of-state institution. A greater percentage of students enrolling out-of-state were male, black, or from the metro-Atlanta area, while a smaller percentage of out-of-state enrollees were white or eligible for FRL in high school (see the table below).

Table 4: College Enrollment by Out-of-State and In-State

Demographic Indicator
Female Male Asian Black Hispanic Other White Free and Reduced-Price Lunch Limited English Proficiency Students with Disabilities Metro-Atlanta

In-State Enrollment (n=155,397) 56.2% 43.8% 4.2% 32.5% 4.3% 2.2% 56.8% 31.1% 0.8% 3.9% 42.9%

Out-of-State Enrollment (n=25,028) 51.4% 48.6% 2.9% 43.6% 2.5% 2.3% 48.7% 28.9% 0.5% 3.0% 62.5%

12

High School Graduate Outcomes
The map below displays in-state college enrollment by size and is colored by type of institution, with green indicating USG institutions, red indicating TCSG, and blue for private, in-state colleges. Enrollment remains clustered in Atlanta, Augusta, Macon, Valdosta, and Columbus.
Figure 7: In-State Enrollment by College Type and Size
13

High School Graduate Outcomes
For students who enrolled outside of Georgia, they chose between more than 1,500 colleges and universities in all remaining 49 states.10 In addition to graduates being more likely to enroll in neighboring states, between 500-999 students also enrolled in colleges and universities in Arizona, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, New York, Virginia, and the District of Columbia.11 Fewer than 30 students enrolled in colleges in Alaska, Delaware, Maine, Montana, Nevada, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming (see map below).
Figure 8: Out-of-State Enrollment
10 Colleges/universities in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands enrolled fewer than 10 students during this time period and are excluded from the map. Colleges in the District of Columbia are also excluded from the map. 11 The majority of students (69.1%) enrolling in Arizona are enrolled at the University of Phoenix.
14

High School Graduate Outcomes

District Geographic Patterns
Eight districts had enrollments rates over 80%: Chickamauga City, Decatur City, Fayette County, Lee County, Oconee County, Schley County, Trion City, and Webster County. Six districts had college enrollment rates that were lower than 55%: Chattahoochee County, Gordon County, Haralson County, Heard County, Long County, and Stewart County. When college enrollment rates are compared by district enrollment, large districts with more than 5,000 graduates in the three years had a slightly higher average college enrollment rate (71.6%) than those districts with fewer than 100 graduates (70.0%).

Table 3: Summary Statistics for District Enrollment Rates

Min

Enrollment Rate

50.0

Average 68.4

Max Standard Deviation

85.6

7.0

15

High School Graduate Outcomes
The map below presents college enrollment rates by district, with those in darker green with higher enrollment than those in lighter green.12 Districts in the western portions of middle and south Georgia and the north Metro Atlanta area had higher than average enrollment rates, while several districts in the northeastern and southeastern region of the state surrounding Long County had lower enrollment rates.
Figure 9: Map of District Enrollment Rates
12 Equal sized intervals of percentage ranges determine the color bands. Two state charter schools (Mountain Education Center and CCAT) have graduates in the dataset. However, since these two schools serve students statewide, they are excluded from this district-level analysis. Note that 11th and 12th graders from Clay County attend high school and graduate from Randolph County. In this map, Clay County is assigned the same percentage as Randolph County.
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High School Graduate Outcomes

College Enrollment and Other Characteristics The following section compares the high school college enrollment rate to FRL status, SAT/ACT and AP exam participation, and high school graduation rates to determine how these characteristics are related to the rate of college enrollment at the high school level.
Free and Reduced-Price Lunch (FRL) FRL indicators provide a useful proxy for an individual student or family's income status.13 When comparing the percentage of the graduating class identified as eligible for FRL to the college enrollment rate, a negative relationship emerges. In other words, as the percentage of the FRL-eligible graduates at a high school decreased, the college enrollment rate increased (see figure below).14

Table 6: Summary Statistics of Percentage of Graduates Eligible for FRL by High School

Min Graduates Eligible for FRL (%) 0

Average 44.6

Max Standard Deviation

100

24.0

13 FRL status is reported as of the student's graduating year. Because these graduation years occurred before the expansion of the National School Lunch Program's Community Eligibility Provision (CEP), the numbers presented here are not affected by the issues discussed in this ebulletin. 14 Fayette County's Evening School and Charter Conservatory (CCAT) do not report any graduates qualifying for FRL, while all graduates qualify for FRL in nine high schools: Atkinson County High School, Macon County High School, Quitman County High School, Screven County High School, Stewart County High School, Talbot County's Central Elementary High School, Taliaferro County School, Telfair County High School, and Terrell County High School.
17

Enrollment Rate

High School Graduate Outcomes
Figure 10: College Enrollment Rate by Free and Reduced-Price Lunch Population
DeKalb Early College Academy Webster County

100

80

60

Stewart County

40

20

Regional Evening Alt. School

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

FRL-Eligibility Rate

Dots above the red line indicate that the schools' enrollment rate was higher than predicted based on its FRL-eligibility rate. As seen in the figure above, DeKalb County's Early College Academy and Webster County High School are outliers, with a high percentage of graduates qualifying for FRL and a high college enrollment rate. Webster County High School, falling into the top right corner, has a higher enrollment rate (84%) than would be predicted by a population of 96% of graduates eligible for FRL, and the Early College Academy enrolls 92% of its students in college and more than half (64%) of its graduates is eligible for FRL. At the bottom of the plot, Jackson County's Regional Evening Alternative School enrolls 17% of students in college, and 44% of the graduates are eligible for FRL. Of high schools with FRL eligibility rates of 90% or more, college enrollment ranges from 45% (APS's South Atlanta Law and Social Justice School) to 84% (Webster County High School). The eight high schools with 100% FRL have higher college enrollment rates than is predicted, aside from Stewart County High School, which is located just below the trend line.

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High School Graduate Outcomes

ACT and SAT Participation Rates
As the rate of high school graduates taking ACT and/or SAT increased, the college enrollment rate tended to increase as well (see figure below). The three schools with ACT/SAT participation rates above 90% also had high enrollment rates: Richmond County's Davidson Magnet School, Savannah Arts Academy, and Cobb County's Walton High School. The high schools with the lowest SAT/ACT participation rates (less than 3%) are alternative schools: Murray County's Mountain Creek Academy School, Berrien County's Academy Performance Learning Center, and Jackson County's Regional Evening Alternative School. The nature of the population and programming at alternative schools may contribute to lower rates of SAT and ACT taking. Notably, nearly 80 percent (77.8%) of students at Atlanta Public School's School of Technology at Carver took either the SAT or the ACT, yet only 53.3% of students enrolled in college within a year.

Table 4: ACT/SAT Participation Rates by High School

Min ACT/SAT Participation Rate 0.0

Average 56.9

Max

Standard Deviation

92.5

16.4

Figure 11: High School College Enrollment by ACT/SAT Participation

100

Davidson Magnet Savannah Arts Walton

80

60

20

40

Berrien Academy Mountain Creek Academy School
Regional Evening Alt. School

School of Technology at Carver

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

ACT/SAT Participation Rate

Enrollment Rate

19

High School Graduate Outcomes

AP Exam Participation 15
In the average high school, 22.8% of students took at least one AP exam. Richmond County's Davidson Magnet School has the highest exam participation rate at 80.6%, and 29 high schools have no students taking AP exams.

Table 5: AP Exam Participation Rates by High School

Min AP Exam Participation Rate 0.0

Average 22.8

Max Standard Deviation

80.6

15.1

A study by College Board found that participation in AP courses positively correlates with student achievement, college readiness, and college completion.16 The following plot shows that a similar relationship exists in Georgia between AP exam participation and rates of college enrollment; as AP exam participation increased, the college enrollment rate also increased. Ware Magnet School and DeKalb Early College Academy emerge as outliers, with low or no AP participation but high college enrollment rates. In contrast, Cobb County's Osborne High School and DeKalb County's Cross Keys High School had lower-than-expected college enrollment rates based on their AP exam participation rates.

Figure 12: College Enrollment by AP Exam Participation

100

DeKalb Early College Academy Ware Magnet School

80

60

Enrollment Rate

40

20

Osborne High School Cross Keys High School
Henry County Evening Academy Regional Evening Alt. School

0

20

40

60

80

100

AP Test Participation Rate

0

15 This study also examined the relationship between AP course enrollment and college enrollment. Only three percent of students who took an AP course did not take the associated exam. Similar patterns were found. As a result, the AP course information is not presented here. 16 Are AP Students More Likely to Graduate from College on Time? College Board Research Report Mattern, Marini, Shaw, 2013.
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High School Graduate Outcomes

Graduation Rate
The average three-year graduation rate is calculated by averaging the graduation rate from all years in which the school was active. The table below presents summary statistics for the three-year average graduation rate. The graduation rate ranges from a 15.5% graduation rate at Atlanta Public School's (APS) Crim High School to 100% graduation rate at four schools: DeKalb County's High School of the Arts, Richmond County's Johnson Magnet, Richmond County's Davidson Magnet, and Ware County's Ware Magnet School.

Table 6: High School Graduation Rate Summary Statistics (2008-2010)

Graduation Rate

Min

Average

Max

15.5

77.8

100

Standard Deviation 11.7

A positive relationship is observed between the enrollment rate and graduation rates, as seen in the figure below. In other words, as the average graduation rate increased, the college enrollment rate also increased. Several schools have higher or lower college enrollment rates than would be predicted based on high school graduation rates. For example, South Atlanta High School of Health and Medical Sciences in APS had an average graduation rate of 82.7%, but only 41.9% of the school's students enrolled in a college within 12 months. Conversely, high school graduates from Bibb County's Central High School, with an average graduation rate of 62.2%, had a higher-thanexpected enrollment rate of 83.3%.

Figure 13: College Enrollment Rates and Average High School Graduation Rates

100

Davidson Magnet DeKalb Early College Academy

Quitman County

Central High School

80

60

40

20

Crim High School

SouFthoArstylathntCa-oHuenatylthAcademy Henry County Evening Academy

0

20

40

60

80

100

Avg. Graduation Rate

0

Enrollment Rate

21

High School Graduate Outcomes

Statewide Degree Completion Rates
Using the degree data stored in GAAWARDS, GOSA matched students in the high school graduate cohort to any degrees they earned within five years of high school graduation. For the purposes of this report, the degree counted is the highest credential earned within five years of graduation. 17 The degree completion rate is calculated by dividing the number of students receiving a degree within five years by the total number of high school graduates. The degree completer cohort may not be composed exclusively of the enrollment cohort discussed previously, as it could include students waiting to enroll in college for more than a year after high school graduation. Please refer to Appendix A for additional information.
Of high school graduates from 2008-2010, only one in three (30.3%) students completed a degree within five years of high school graduation. Compared to all high school graduates, female students, Asian students, white students, and students from the metroAtlanta area were proportionally overrepresented among degree completers (see Table 10). In contrast, black students, Hispanic students, students who were eligible for FRL in high school, students who were identified as limited English proficient, and students with disabilities were proportionally underrepresented.

Table 7: Demographics of High School Graduates and Five Year Degree Completers

Demographic Indicator
Female Male Asian Black White Hispanic Other Free and Reduced Price Lunch Limited English Proficiency Students with Disabilities Metro Atlanta

High School Graduating Classes 2008-2010 (n=256,426) 52.5% 47.5% 3.5% 35.5% 52.7% 6.0% 2.3%
52.7%
1.4%
5.1%
44.0%

Degree Completers within Five Years
(n= 77,680) 61.2% 38.8% 5.4% 24.8% 64.0% 3.9% 2.0%
22.6%
0.7%
2.5%
48.8%

17 Please refer to Appendix C for an explanation of the mapping of specific degree types to degree categories.
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High School Graduate Outcomes

The pie graph below summarizes the highest degrees earned by the cohort. Degree types range from certificates to graduate degrees. Bachelor's degrees represent the majority of degrees earned (70%) within five years of high school graduation, followed by Associate's degrees (20%).

Figure 14: Highest Degrees by Type Earned within Five Years

1% 2%

7% 20%
70%

Certificate Associate's Bachelor's Master's or Higher Other Credential

Learning Support National research finds that students taking remedial courses (also known as learning support) are less likely to earn degrees than those who do not require remediation both nationally and within Georgia.18 Using learning support data from GAAWARDS, GOSA tracked the outcomes of students enrolled in TCSG and USG institutions who were enrolled in math and English learning support at any time during the five years following high school graduation. As seen in the figure below, students who had not enrolled in math or English remedial support had degree completion rates of 45.0%, compared to 18.2% of students who had enrolled in either math or English remedial courses.
Figure 15: Degree Completion by Learning Support

50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0%
0.0%

Degree Completion Rate
45.0%
18.2%

Students Not Enrolled in Students Enrolled in

Learning Support

Learning Support

18 Complete College America. Transform Remediation: The Co-Requisite Model (2010). Complete College Georgia. Complete College Georgia: Georgia Higher Education Plan 2012 (2012).

23

High School Graduate Outcomes

Patterns in High School Rates of Certificate and Degree Completion
In addition to college enrollment rates, GOSA calculated degree completion rates by high school to determine the percentage of high school graduates who successfully completed credentials or degrees within five years.

When all high schools are compared, an average of 26.5% of students within a given high school graduating class complete a degree within five years.19 Degree completion rates ranged from 0% at DeKalb County's Destiny Academy of Excellence Charter School and Quitman County High School to 64% at DeKalb County's Early College Academy. The density plot below shows the distribution of degree completion rates by high schools, with the middle 50% falling between 19.5% and 32.1%.

Table 8: Degree Completion by High School Summary Statistics

Min

Enrollment

0.0

Average 26.5

Max

Standard Deviation

64.0

11.3

Figure 16: Density Plot of High School Degree Completion Rates

19 High school classes with fewer than 10 graduates are excluded from this analysis.
24

High School Graduate Outcomes

District Geographic Patterns
In three districts, more than 45% of graduates completed a degree within five years: Fayette County, Oconee County, and Schley County, while less than 15% of graduates received degrees in Chattahoochee County, Quitman County, and Twiggs County. When degree completion rates are compared by district enrollment, large districts with more than 5,000 graduates in the three years had a higher average degree completion rate (31.6%) than districts with fewer than 100 graduates (22.0%), even though these two groups have similar average enrollment rates.

Table 9: Summary Statistics for District Enrollment Percentages

Min

Average

Max Standard Deviation

Enrollment

0

27.6

47.4

6.8

25

High School Graduate Outcomes
The following map presents degree completion rates by district, with those in darker shades having higher degree completion rates than those in lighter shades.20 Districts surrounding metro Atlanta had higher than average enrollment rates, while districts in the northeastern and southeastern region of the state had lower enrollment rates.
Figure 17: Map of Degree Completion Rates by District
20 Equal sized intervals of percentage ranges determine the color bands. Two state charter schools (Mountain Education Center and CCAT) have graduates in the dataset. However, since these two schools serve students statewide, they are excluded from this district-level analysis. Note that 11th and 12th graders from Clay County attend high school and graduate from Randolph County. In this map, Clay County is assigned the same percentage as Randolph County.
26

High School Graduate Outcomes
Out-of-State Degree Completion As shown in the map below, of all out-of-state degree completers, Alabama had the most high school graduates complete degrees out of state, followed by South Carolina. Ten or fewer students received awards in the following states: Alaska, Delaware, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Dakota, and Puerto Rico. Although high school graduates initially enrolled in colleges and universities in South Dakota and the Virgin Islands, no degrees were completed in either state/territory.21
Figure 18: Five-Year Degree Completers by State
21 The District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands are not portrayed on this map.
27

High School Graduate Outcomes
Relationship with Other Characteristics The following section compares the degree completion rate with the following high school characteristics: percentage of graduates eligible for FRL, AP exam participation, and average high school graduation rates. These patterns are similar to the pattern found between these characteristics and the enrollment rates, which is expected given the strong correlation between the enrollment and degree completion rates.22
FRL Population Similar to enrollment rates, a negative relationship is observed between the degree completion rate and the percentage of students eligible for FRL (see figure below). DeKalb Early College Academy again was as an anomaly, with both a high degree completion rate (64%) and high percentage of FRL students (64%). Several alternative schools are clustered in the bottom left corner, with degree completion rates under 10% and FRL populations under 20%.23 Several schools with high FRL populations had higher degree completion rates than the trend line would suggest. Of particular note are Atkinson County High School and Macon County High School, which had one-third of graduates complete a degree despite 100% FRL eligibility.
Figure 19: Degree Completion Rates by Free and Reduced-Price Lunch

100

80

Degree Completion Rate

60

40

DeKalb Early College Academy Atkinson County
Macon County High School

0

20

40

60

80

100

FRL-Eligibility Rate

20

0

22 The correlation coefficient is 0.84 for the two rates. This correlation will be explored in a later section. 23 Henry County Evening Academy, Forsyth County Academy, Cobb County's Oakwood Digital Academy, Mountain Education Center School, Cherokee County's Polaris Evening School, Fayette County's Evening School, and Whitfield County's Phoenix High School.
28

High School Graduate Outcomes
AP Exam Participation A positive relationship is also observed between the percentage of high school graduates taking the AP exam and the percentage of students completing a degree within five years (see figure below). In the upper left-hand corner, DeKalb Early College Academy appears as an outlier, with no students taking AP exams, but 64% of graduates obtaining a degree or credential within five years. Richmond County's Davidson Magnet School and Cobb County's Walton High School, located in the upper right-hand corner, had high AP test participation rates (>65%) and degree completion rates (>60%). Conversely, several schools located in the bottom of the figure are underperforming, with low degree completion rates when compared to their AP exam particpation rates: Cobb County's Osborne High School, APS' Therrell School of Engineering, Math, and Science, and APS' South Atlanta School of Computer Animation and Design.
Figure 20: Degree Completion Rates by AP Exam Participation

100

80

60

40

DeKalb Early College Academy

Walton

Davidson Magnet

Osborne South Atlanta-Computer Animation Therrell-Engineering

0

20

40

60

80

100

AP Test Participation Rate

20

0

Degree Completion Rate

29

High School Graduate Outcomes
High School Graduation Rate A positive relationship is observed when high school degree completion rates are compared to high school graduation rates (see Figure 20). In other words, high schools with high graduation rates tended to have high degree completion rates as well. Several schools in the bottom right-hand corner had high graduation rates but low degree completion rates. For example, Muscogee County's Early College Academy of Columbus and Atlanta Public School's School of Technology at Carver, Early College High School at Carver, and Tech High School had an average graduation rate of over 90%, but fewer than 25% of students completed a degree within 5 years. Several schools in the top right corner have high graduation rates and a high degree completion rates: Cobb County's Walton High School, DeKalb County's Early College Academy, and Richmond County's Davidson Magnet School.
Figure 21: Average High School Graduation Rates by Degree Completion

100

Davidson Magnet DeKalb Early College Academy

Quitman County

Central High School

80

60

40

20

Crim High School

Forsyth County Academy South Atlanta School of Health and Medical Science Henry County Evening Academy

0

20

40

60

80

100

Avg. Graduation Rate

0

Enrollment Rate

30

High School Graduate Outcomes
Comparison of Enrollment Rates and Degree Completion Rates When the enrollment and degree completion rates are compared, a strong positive relationship is observed between the two rates, as observed in the figure below. Several schools in the top right-hand corner had higher degree completion rates than expected based on the enrollment rate. For example, DeKalb Early College Academy, Cobb County's Walton High School, and Richmond County's Davidson Magnet School had degree completion percentages greater than 60%. APS's Therrell School of Engineering, Math, and Science is in the bottom center of the figure, with 61% of the graduating class enrolled in college or universities, but only 2% obtained a degree within five years. Similarly, Quitman High School did not have any degree completers, but had 80% of its high school graduating class enrolled in college.24 DeKalb Alternative Night School had a degree completion rate that is higher than expected (22%) based on its enrollment rate (32%).
Figure 22: College Enrollment by Degree Completion Rates

100

80

60

40

20

DeKalb Early College Academy Walton
Davidson Magnet

DeKalb Alt. Night School
Therrell-Engineering Quitman County

0

20

40

60

80

100

Enrollment Rate

0

Degree Completion Rate

24 Note that Quitman County had only 10 graduates over the three years.
31

High School Graduate Outcomes
Conclusion
This analysis provides information on the transition from high school to college and to completing a credential or degree. Following the high school graduating classes of 2008, 2009, and 2010, it investigates patterns in enrollment in college and degree completion based on characteristics of students and their high schools. Using data from these three graduating classes allows for analysis of degree completion since at least five years have passed since high school graduation. It is important to note that the outcomes presented in this paper should not be interpreted as cause-effect because additional factors outside of the scope of this analysis may play a role in the relationship.
The figure below presents the race/ethnicity percentages among of high school graduates, the number who enrolled in college within 12 months, and the number who completed a degree within 5 years.25 Students who enrolled in college and those who earned degrees within this cohort are proportionally more likely to be white and Asian and less likely to be Hispanic and black when compared to the original high school graduate cohort.

Figure 23: Demographics of Graduates, Enrollees and Five-Year Degree Completers

High School Graduates (2008-2010) Enrolled within 12 Months
Degree Completers within Five Years 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

White Black Hispanic Asian Other

Selected findings from the analysis of high school graduates between 2008 and 2010 include:
Enrollment in College within 12 Months o 70.3% of high school graduates enrolled in college within twelve months of high school graduation. o Of those high school graduates enrolling, 86% of students selected instate colleges. o Of the students enrolling in colleges outside of Georgia, a majority (57%) enrolled in the neighboring states of Alabama, South Carolina, Tennessee, Florida, and North Carolina. o High schools with higher participation rates on the SAT/ACT and AP tended to have higher enrollment rates, as do high schools with higher average three-year high school graduation rates (2008-2010). o High schools with high FRL-eligibility rates tended to have lower college enrollment rates.

25 Degree completers waiting more than twelve months after high school graduation to enroll in college are included in the enrollment group in Figure 22.
32

High School Graduate Outcomes

Degree Completion o Only 30.3% of the students in this study completed a certificate or degree within five years. o Compared to all high school graduates, Hispanic and black students were proportionally underrepresented among degree completers, while white and Asian students were proportionally overrepresented. o 52.7% of high school graduates were eligible for FRL, but only 22.6% of degree completers five years later were FRL-eligible.
Figure 24: Graduates, Enrollees and Five-Year Degree Completers by FRL Status

High School Graduates (20082010)

52.7

Enrolled within 12 Months

30.8

Degree Completers within Five Years

22.6

0

20

40

47.3

69.2

77.4

60

80

FRL Not FRL

100

%

o 18.2% of students who required remediation in math and English at Georgia public colleges/universities complete a degree within five years, compared to 45.0% of students who did not require remediation.
o High schools with higher FRL-eligibility rates tended to have lower degree completion rates.
o High schools with AP exam participation rates and average high school graduation rates tended to have higher degree completion rates.
Throughout this analysis, several schools stood out as high-performing outliers, namely Richmond County's Davidson Magnet School, DeKalb County's Early College Academy, and Ware County's Ware Magnet School. These schools had enrollment rates over 86% and degree completion rates over 45%. In the case of DeKalb County's Early College Academy, this school had a high enrollment rate (92%), despite a high FRLeligibility rate (64%) and low AP exam participation rate (0%).

33

Appendices

High School Graduate Outcomes

Appendix A. High School Outcomes Calculation Guide

Duplication Rules
High school students with multiple graduations within the same year and high school are removed; however, multiple graduations across years or schools are retained in this analysis. For students enrolled in multiple college/universities during the first year after high school graduation, the report applies the same ranking methodology as the High School Graduates Outcomes Dashboard.26 No duplicates appear in the five year degree completers because the degree types are ranked by the logic found in Appendix C.

High School Graduate Cohort
The Georgia Department of Education defines a student as a high school graduate if he/she is withdrawn with a code for graduation (G) either as a junior or a senior and also earn one of the following diplomas (B-Both College Prep & Vocational, C-College Preparatory, G-General Diploma, or V-Vocational) in high school. High schools with graduating classes with fewer than ten graduates are excluded from this analysis. For a list of high schools that change school codes in this analysis, see Appendix B.

College Enrollment Calculation
The college enrollment rate is calculated for each high school to determine how many students enrolled in a college institution within twelve months of high school graduation. To calculate the overall college enrollment rate by high school, the total high school graduates from the three years is divided by the total high school graduates.

12

=



Out-of-State College Counts
GAAWARDS receives information on Georgia high school graduates who attend outof-state institutions from the National Student Clearinghouse (NSC).27 Any institution not located within the state of Georgia is considered an out-of-state college.

Percent of Students Taking the ACT and the SAT
The numerator for the SAT/ACT participation rates were the students taking either exam between 2005 and 2015, and the denominator is the total high school graduating class.

/

/ =



26 Click here for the calculation guide. 27 NSC also provides information on the private institutions in Georgia that do not provide data to GAAWARDS.
34

High School Graduate Outcomes

AP Exam Participation
The numerator for the AP participation rates is the number of students taking at least one AP exam between 2006 and 2015, and the denominator is the total high school graduating class. Students count as AP exam participants if they take an AP exam, regardless of which high school they were enrolled in when they took the test.



=



Degree Completion Calculation
The degree completion rate is calculated for each high school in the three-year cohort to determine the highest degree that high school graduates obtained within five years. The highest award was selected by ranking according to the hierarchy below. A full list of degree types is listed in Appendix C.

Table 10: Degree/Certificate Ranking

Order Category

Diploma Type

1

Master's or

Post baccalaureate certificate, Masters, PHD, Doctorate,

Higher

Professional, Doctor's degree professional practice, First

Professional A, Education Specialist

2

Bachelor's

Bachelor's degree, Bachelors

3

Associate's

Associates, Associate's Degree, Postsecondary Diploma,

Diploma, Career Associate

4

Certificate

Certificate, Less than 1 Year Certificate, Advanced

Certificate, One-year Vocational = Related Certificate

The overall degree completion rate is calculated by dividing the total degree completers in all cohorts by the total high school graduates.

/

=



High School Learning Support Calculation
Learning support information is only available for students who enroll in TCSG and USG institutions. The learning support calculations were completed by identifying all students enrolled in learning support courses in TCSG and USG institutions. The numerator for this calculation is all students at a given high school who enrolled in math or English learning support within TCSG/USG for up to five years after high school graduation, and the denominator is all students who enrolled at TCSG or USG from that high school within five years of high school graduation. Note that this definition is slightly different from the definition employed by the High School Graduate Outcomes Dashboard. To access that definition, see the Calculation Guide.

35

High School Graduate Outcomes

Appendix B: High School Code Changes
During the matching process used to aggregate the three high school classes, GOSA identified nine high schools that changed school codes during the three years. In these cases, the school codes were updated to reflect the most recent school code. For example, Brooks High School in Brooks County had both school codes 110 and 2050, but all data were consolidated under the 2050 school code for calculations for this report. The majority of the school code changes occurred between 2009 and 2010.

Table 11: High School Code Changes

District
Brooks County Carroll County
CCAT School DeKalb County
Forsyth County
Laurens County
Miller County
Mountain Education Center

High School
Brooks High School
Open Campus Carroll County CCAT School
DeKalb School of the Arts Forsyth County Academy West Laurens High School Miller County High School Mountain Education Center

2008 School Code 614110 622190
795 644400
658306
687110
700201
798108

2009 School Code 614110 622190
795 644400
658306
6873054
700201
798108

2010 School Code
6142050 622113
7830103 644410
658218
6873054
700210
7820108108

Putnam County

Putnam County High School

717276

717114

717114

36

High School Graduate Outcomes

Appendix C: Degree Ranking

Source System

Order Academic Program Level

Degree Degree Level Level Code

Report Category

GICA NSC NSC TCSG USG USG GICA NSC NSC TCSG TCSG TCSG USG USG GICA NSC USG GICA GICA GICA NSC NSC NSC USG

0

Unknown

99

Undecided / Unknown

Unknown

0

Unknown

X

N/A

Unknown

1

Undergraduate C

Certificate

Certificate

1

Undergraduate 1

Certificate

Certificate

1

Undergraduate C

One-year Vocational - Related Certificate Certificate

1

Undergraduate Z

Less than 1 Year Certificate

Certificate

2

Undergraduate 3

Associate's degree

Associate's

2

Graduate

D

Postsecondary Diploma

Associate's

2

Undergraduate A

Associates

Associate's

2

Undergraduate 2

Diploma

Associate's

2

Undergraduate 3

Associate's Degree

Associate's

2

Undergraduate 4

Diploma

Associate's

2

Undergraduate A

Associate

Associate's

2

Undergraduate V

Career Associate

Associate's

3

Undergraduate 5

Bachelor's degree

Bachelor's

3

Undergraduate B

Bachelors

Bachelor's

3

Undergraduate B

Bachelors

Bachelor's

4

Graduate

18

Doctor's degree - professional practice

Master's or Higher

4

Graduate

6

Post baccalaureate certificate

Master's or Higher

4

Graduate

7

Master's degree

Master's or Higher

4

Graduate

M

Masters

Master's or Higher

4

Graduate

P

PHD

Master's or Higher

4

Professional F

Professional

Master's or Higher

4

Graduate

D

Doctorate

Master's or Higher

37