Evaluation of the HOPE scholarship program : executive summary

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Evaluation of the HOPE Scholarship Program
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

In 1993, Governor Zell Miller and the General Assembly established the lottery-funded HOPE Scholarship program. While HOPE has several different components, this study addresses the HOPE recipients who received public college scholarships in the 1994-95 academic year. These students qualified for HOPE by graduating from high school with a "8" average or better and received tuition, fees, and a book allowance.

The purpose of this evaluation, conducted for the Council for School Performance by the Applied Research Center at Georgia State University, is to provide policy-makers and citizens with information about the HOPE program. The information summarized here is available in more detail in the full report. The report may be useful as further refinements of the HOPE program are considered by the Governor and General Assembly. This evaluation addresses four questions that are frequently asked about the HOPE Scholarship program:

1.

Who receives HOPE scholarships?

2.

What would be the impact on HOPE recipients of raising academic standards?

3.

What is the impact on HOPE recipients of having a college prep diploma?

4.

What is the impact on HOPE recipients of taking Learning Support (developmental

studies) courses?

Each of these questions is addressed for the 16,376 HOPE public college scholarship recipients for 1994-95. The study examines how various factors impact student persistence in college and retention of the HOPE scholarship. In this study, a student has persisted in college if the student attended a Georgia public institution in Fall 1994 and is still attending a Georgia public institution in Fall 1995. A student retained HOPE if the student's cumulative college GPA was a 3.0 or higher after 45 hours of college course work.

WHO RECEIVES HOPE?

The 16,376 students who received HOPE in 1994-95 had the following characteristics:

> 61% were female. > 39% were male.
> 76% were white. > 20% were black. > 3% were Asian.
> 15% are from South Georgia. > 84% of HOPE students persisted in
college over a one year period.

:> average high school GPA of 3.6. :> 27% are from Middle Georgia. :> 31 % are from Metro Atlanta. :> 27% are from North Georgia. :> average family income of $44,876. :> 43% of HOPE students who earned 45
hours retained HOPE.

The HOPE 1994-95 class has 3.7% more females than the overall university system population. The racial composition of the HOPE population mirrors that of the overall university system population. The percentage of HOPE students taking Learning Support as freshmen was 9.3% lower than the overage percentage for the 1994-95 freshman class. Additionally, the average SAT score for HOPE students was 40 points higher than the average for the entire 1994-95 freshman class.

HOPE Evaluation Executive Summary
WHAT Is THE IMPACT OF RAISING ACADEMIC STANDARDS?
The HOPE program rewards students who perform at a high academic level in high school. One way to raise standards is to calculate the GPA of HOPE students using only academic courses. This method of raising standards was recommended by Governor Zell Miller in his Supplemental BUdget Address on January 3, 1996. The Board of Regents currently calculates high school GPAs in this manner by including only academic courses. Local school systems currently include all courses taken by the student, including electives, in calculating the student's high school GPA. Using the Regents' calculated GPA provides a more rigorous standard by which to admit students to the HOPE program and would reqUire students to strive for greater academic achievement in high school in order to receive HOPE.
An examination of the data for the 1994-95 HOPE freshman class shows the impact that having a 3.0 or higher Regents' GPA has on a student's performance in college.
>- Students with a Regents' high school GPA of 3.0 or higher have a 6% higher persistence
rate than students who have a Regents' GPA below 3.0.
Only 20% of students who have a Regents'GPA below 3.0 retain HOPE. 55% of the students who have a Regents' GPA of 3.0 or higher retain HOPE.
It is also possible to determine what the impact would have been on the 1994-95 HOPE freshman class of limiting HOPE to students with a Regents' 3.0 or higher GPA. These changes compare the entire 1994-95 HOPE class to those students in the class who have a Regents' 3.0 or higher GPA. If HOPE had been limited to students who had a Regents' 3.0 or higher high school GPA in 1994-95, .
<'- 44% of students would have not qualified for HOPE. <'- college persistence rates would have increased by 1%. <'- the percentage of students retaining HOPE would have increased by 12%. <'- 22% of students would have needed to take Learning Support course work
compared to 30% now. <'- The HOPE profile would have had 7% more females and 3% fewer black students.
WHAT Is THE IMPACT OF HAVING A COLLEGE PREP DIPLOMA?
Georgia has a College Preparatory Curriculum that was developed jointly by the Board of Regents and the State Board of Education. High school students who graduate having taken the appropriate course work receive a College Prep endorsement on their high school diploma. Currently, HOPE recipients are not required to have a College Prep endorsement to receive the public college scholarship.
An examination of the data for the 1994-95 HOPE freshman class shows the impact of graduating from high school with a College Prep diploma on a student's performance in college. We have also examined the impact of College Prep on the "average student," which is a student who graduated from high school with an average GPA and comes from a household with an average income.
>- 88% of HOPE students graduated from high school with a College Prep diploma.
>- The average student has a 6% higher persistence rate with a College Prep diploma.
Council for School Performance

HOPE Evaluation Executive Summary
College prep improves the persistence rates of the following:
<r- the average white student by 6%. <r- the average male student by 8%. <r- the average black student by 4%. <r- the average female student by 5%.

The average student, regardless of race or gender, is 7% more likely to retain HOPE with a College Prep diploma.
It is also possible to determine what the impact would have been on the 1994-95 HOPE freshman class of limiting HOPE to students who graduated from high school with a College Prep diploma. These changes compare the entire 1994-95 HOPE class to those students in the class who have a College Prep diploma. If HOPE had been limited to students who graduated from high school with a College Prep endorsement in 1994-95,
<r- 12% of the students would not have qualified for HOPE. <r- 28% of students would have needed Learning Support compared to 30.5% now. <r- persistence and HOPE retention rates would not have changed substantially. <r- the percentage of females and blacks in the HOPE profile would not have changed.
These impacts are lower than might be expected because most students have the college prep diploma.

WHAT Is THE IMPACT OF LEARNING SUPPORT (DEVELOPMENTAL STUDIES)?

Like many other states, Georgia offers Learning Support course work, previously known as Developmental Studies course work, to college students who fail to meet specific university standards but are otherwise eligible for admission. Currently, HOPE pays for recipients to take Learning Support courses in college. Learning Support course work does not count toward a student's official college GPA or credit hours.
An examination of the data for the 1994-95 HOPE freshman class shows the impact of taking Learning Support course work in college on a student's performance in college. We have also examined the impact of taking Learning Support course work on the "average student," which is a student who graduated from high school with an average GPA and comes from a household with an average income.
>- 31 % of HOPE students took at least one Learning Support course.

>- An average student's persistence rate is not affected by taking Learning Support

courses. Taking Learning Support courses affects the persistence rates of groups of

students differently by

<r- improving the persistence of the

<r- reducing the persistence of the average

average black student by 6%.

male student by 1%.

<r- reducing the persistence of the

<r- improving the persistence of the

average white student by 2%.

average female student by 1%.

The average student is 13% less likely to keep HOPE if they are required to take

Learning Support courses. The retention rates of students taking Learning Support

are reduced by

<r- 12% for the average male student.

<r- 9% for the average white student.

<r- 13 % for the average female

<r- 8% for the average black student.

student.

CouncilforSchoolPerformance

HOPE Evaluation Executive Summary
It is also possible to determine what the impact would have been on the 1994-95 HOPE freshman class of limiting HOPE to students who are not required to take Learning Support course work in College. These changes compare the entire 1994-95 HOPE class to those students in the class who did not need to take Learning Support course work. If HOPE had been limited to students who did not need Learning Support course work in 1994-95,
<>- 31 % of students would not have qualified for HOPE. <>- the overall persistence rate would have increased by only 1.1 %. <>- the percentage of students retaining HOPE eligibility would have increased by 7.1 %. <>- the HOPE profile would have had 2% fewer female and 7% fewer black students.
CONCLUSIONS
Because HOPE is a new program, it is only possible to examine the impact that HOPE has on persistence in college and retention of HOPE. As there is more data on HOPE, it will be possible to examine other areas such as HOPE's impact on the college graduation rate. Examining persistence and retention, however makes it possible to weigh various policy options and determine how the program might be made more effective.
The data show that requiring a College Prep diploma, requiring a Regents' 3.0 or higher GPA, or limiting HOPE to students not needing Learning Support course work--increases the rates of persistence in college only modestly. Raising the academic standards that high school students must attain in order to receive a HOPE scholarship by requiring students to have a 3.0 or higher GPA in their core academic subject areas would have a strong positive impact on the HOPE retention rate. This change also does not dramatically change the demographics of the HOPE program. Our findings show that approximately the same ratio of men, women, blacks, whites, and Asians would still receive HOPE.
One possible benefit of raising academic standards is that it will raise the academic expectations of college-bound high school students. If students are appropriately made aware of the increased standards required to receive a HOPE scholarship, more students may be motivated to get the preparation they need to be successful in college and to receive HOPE. However, the motivations of high school students cannot be evaluated in this study. Our findings showed that 44% of the 1994-95 class of HOPE scholars do not meet this standard. When the increase in HOPE eligibility standards is communicated to students, the percentage of students not eligible for HOPE under the increased standards may become smaller.
In 1994-95, almost 88% of HOPE students had a College Prep diploma and this percentage can only be expected to rise as students are required to receive a College Prep and/or Vocational diploma. Because so many students already have the College Prep diploma, requiring HOPE recipients to have a College Prep diploma would not result in appreciably higher rates of persistence or retention.
Exempting students who need Learning Support would have very mixed effects. Students who take Learning Support course work do not retain HOPE at the same rate as students who do not take Learning Support courses. However, taking Learning Support courses can help students persist in college. Female and black students especially benefit from Learning Support course work and, therefore, would be especially harmed if Learning Support students were exempt from HOPE.
This research was conducted by Dr. Marsha Davis, Dr. GaIY HenlY, and Mr. Thad Hall, Applied Research Center at Georgia State University. The authors wish to express their appreciation for the cooperation of the Board of Regents and the Georgia Student Finance Commission in supplying data for the stUdy and to Mr. Matt Smith, who prepared the data sets for analysis.
CouncilforSchoolPerformance