Georgia-Atlanta economic indicators. Quarterly report, Vol. 9, no. 2 (Second quarter 2003)

Economic

Indicators

A Quarterly Report of Georgia and Metro Atlanta Labor Market and Economic Trends

Second Quarter 2003

Volume 9, Issue 2

Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner

Georgia-Atlanta Economic Indicators
Quarterly Report Second Quarter - 2003
Volume 9, Issue 2

Cover art: Lucas Theatre, Savannah, Georgia by Huey J. Theus, Mableton, Georgia
Georgia Economic Indicators, Quarterly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 232-3875.
Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us

Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner

Equal Opportunity Employer/Programs - Auxiliary Aids and Services Available Upon Request to Individuals With Disabilities

Georgia Department of Labor

Economic Indicators / Second Quarter 2003

Contents
History ............................................................................................................................................................ 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................. 2 U.S. Consumer Price Index ......................................................................................................................... 3 Georgia Index of Economic Indicators ...................................................................................................... 4 Georgia Data Summary ................................................................................................................................ 5
Employment, Manufacturing Wages and Hours .................................................................................... 6 Nonagricultural, Retail, Manufacturing,Workweek, Earnings and Deflated Earnings
Job Openings, Unemployment Data and Vehicle Sales ........................................................................ 7 Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Initial/ Continued Unemployment Claims, Unemployment Rate, Insured Unemployment Rate and New Motor Vehicle Sales
Construction, New Business and State Revenue ................................................................................... 8 Residential/ Nonresidential Construction, Deflated Nonresidential Construction, New Business Corporations, Total/ Deflated State Revenue
Consumer Price Index for Atlanta .............................................................................................................. 9 Metro Atlanta Index of Economic Indicators ........................................................................................... 10 Atlanta Data Summary ................................................................................................................................ 11
Employment Data ......................................................................................................................................... 12 Nonagricultural, Wholesale, (Retail Accommodation and Food Services), Manufacturing and Government
Emloyment Data - Continued ..................................................................................................................... 13 Construction, (Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities), Financial Activities, Professional and Business Services, Hospital Services and Social Assistance
Manufacturing Workweek, Earnings and Unemployment Data .......................................................... 14 Manufacturing -(Workweek, Earnings and Deflated Earnings), Initial/ Continued Unemployment Claims and Unemployment Rates
Unemployment Data, Transit and Construction Data ............................................................................ 15 Insured Unemployment Rate, Marta Passengers, Cobb Community Transit Passengers, Residential/ Nonresidential Construction and Deflated Nonresidential Construction
Hotel and Mortgage Rates ......................................................................................................................... 16 Hotel Occupancy, Average Hotel Room Rates, Deflated Average Hotel Room Rates, Average 30-Year/ 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates and Average One-Year Adjustable Mortgage Rates

History
In 1921, film-distribution pioneer Arthur Lucas opened Savannah's first and only "movie palace", to a sold out viewing of the film "Camille". Patrons quickly got accustomed to enjoying first-run movie hits, live vaudeville performances, a resident theater company, big bands and visits by Hollywood stars. As the "vaudeville" era ended and the movie industry evolved and proliferated, the Lucas was unable to attract an audience. After operating 55 years, the Lucas closed its doors on May 21,1976.
In 1987, Savannah residents Emma and Lee Adler established the Lucas Theatre for the Performing Arts as a not-for-profit corporation and launched an ambitious fund-raising campaign to fund an extensive restoration of the theater and the installation of state-of-the-art equipment. The Lucas reopened in December 2000 to provide a variety of community entertainment.
The theater's architectural features -- including a 40-foot-wide ceiling dome -- are worthy of the many hours invested in its restoration. From an Italian Renaissance exterior to the ornate Italianate interior, the Lucas sits majestically at the corner of Abercorn and Congress streets on Reynolds Square. The intricately detailed Adam-style plasterwork, Wedgwood inspired colors and gold leaf accents, have all been restored to their original opulence.
The Lucas Theatre offers visitors the opportunity to take a glimpse at Savannah's past, while enjoying the best in entertainment.

Introduction

G eorgia Economic Indicators, Quarterly Report, is designed to provide in a single publication data on a
number of indicators used to measure movement of the state's economy.
Our publication has changed.
The Georgia and Metropolitan Altanta Economic Indicator series, previously published as two separate monthly publications, are now published as a single quarterly publication. Additional data series for Georgia's other six metropolitan statistical areas are being developed and will be added to this publication later in the year. Graphs will continue to display data on monthly increments; whereas, companion data tables will display the 3-month average for each series (for 7 quarters) before alternating to a monthly format for the most recent quarter.
All data except those contained in the U.S. and Atlanta Consumer Price Index chart on Pages 3 and 9 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data that have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars.
Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually.
Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning Georgia Economic Indicators, Quarterly Report and Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Bill Webb, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 232-3875.

Data Sources

Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Manufacturing Workweek and Employment data. -- Georgia Department of Labor
Consumer Price Index -- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, adapted from commentary by Michael Wald New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group MARTA Passengers -- Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit System CCT Passengers -- Cobb Community Transit System Hotel Occupancy and Room Rates -- Smith Travel Research, Hendersonville, TN Mortgage Rates -- HSH Associates, Financial Publishers, Butler, NJ
* Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center

2 Economic Indicators / Second Quarter 2003

Georgia Department of Labor

Consumer Price Index

Chart is not seasonally adjusted

YEAR 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

JAN
127.4 134.6 138.1 142.6 146.2 150.3 154.4 159.1 161.6 164.3 168.7 175.1 177.1 181.7

FEB
128.0 134.8 138.6 143.1 146.7 150.9 154.9 159.6 161.9 164.5 169.7 175.8 177.8 183.1

MAR
128.7 135.0 139.3 143.6 147.2 151.4 155.7 160.0 162.2 165.0 171.1 176.2 178.8 184.2

APR
128.9 135.2 139.5 144.0 147.4 151.9 156.3 160.2 162.5 166.2 171.2 176.9 179.8 183.8

MAY
129.2 135.6 139.7 144.2 147.5 152.2 156.6 160.1 162.8 166.2 171.3 177.7 179.8 183.5

JUN
129.9 136.0 140.2 144.4 148.0 152.5 156.7 160.3 163.0 166.2 172.3 178.0 179.9 183.7

JUL
130.4 136.2 140.5 144.4 148.4 152.5 157.0 160.5 163.2 166.7 172.6 177.5 180.1

AUG
131.6 136.6 140.9 144.8 149.0 152.9 157.3 160.8 163.4 167.1 172.8 177.5 180.7

SEP
132.7 137.2 141.3 145.1 149.4 153.2 157.8 161.2 163.6 167.9 173.7 178.3 181.0

OCT
133.5 137.4 141.9 145.7 149.5 153.7 158.3 161.6 164.0 168.2 174.0 177.7 181.3

NOV
133.8 137.8 142.0 145.8 149.7 153.6 158.6 161.5 164.0 168.3 174.1 177.4 181.3

DEC
133.8 137.9 141.9 145.8 149.7 153.5 158.6 161.3 163.9 168.3 174.0 176.7 180.9

AVG
130.7 136.2 140.3 144.5 148.2 152.4 156.9 160.5 163.0 166.6 172.1 177.1 179.9

CPI RATE
6.1% 3.1% 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 3.3% 1.7% 1.6% 2.7% 3.4% 1.6% 2.4%

Source: U.S. Bureau Of Labor Statistics @www.bls.gov

Higher Energy Costs Moves Index Higher

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in June, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. The June level of 183.7 (1982-84=100) was 2.1 percent higher than its level in June 2002.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U rose 0.2 percent in June, after registering no change in May. Energy costs, which declined substanially in April and May after recording sharp increases in each of the first three months of the year, increased 0.8 percent in June. The index for all items less food and energy, which increased 0.3 percent in May, was unchanged in June. Most of the deceleration was attributable to the shelter index, which was virtually unchanged in June after advancing 0.6 percent in May.
Consumer prices decreased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 0.7 percent in the second quarter after advancing at a 5.2 percent rate in the first three months of 2003. This brings the year-to-date

annual rate to 2.2 percent and compares with an increase of 2.4 percent in all of 2002.
The index for energy, which advanced at a 76.5 percent SAAR in the first quarter of 2003, turned down in the second quarter, decreasing at a 24.5 percent SAAR, bringing the yearto-date annual rate to 15.4 percent. In the first half of 2003, petroleum-based energy costs increased at an 11.9 percent annual rate and charges for energy services increased at a 19.0 percent annual rate.
The CPI-U excluding food and energy advanced at a 1.0 percent SAAR in the second quarter, following an increase at a 0.8 percent rate in the first three months of 2003. The advance at a 0.9 percent SAAR for the first half of the 2003 compares with a 1.9 percent rise in all of 2002. Smaller increases in the indexes for shelter and medical care, coupled with a larger decrease in the index apparel, were responsible for the deceleration.
The index for housing increased 0.1 percent in June. Shelter costs, which increased 0.6 percent in May, were

virtually unchanged in June. The index for fuels and utilities rose 0.4 percent in June. For the 12 months ended in June, charges for natural gas have risen 28.3 percent, fuel oil prices, 17.5 percent, and charges for electricity, 3.2 percent.
The transportation index increased 0.3 percent in June after declining in April and May. The index for gasoline, which declined sharply in April and May, turned back up in June, advancing 1.3 percent. The index for public transportation advanced 0.7 percent in June, reflecting an increase in airline fares. Airline fares increased for the fifth consecutive month ( up 2.0 percent in June) and are at virtually the same level as in June 2002.
The index for apparel rose 0.4 percent in June, its first increase
since August 2002. Medical care
costs rose 0.3 percent in June to a
level 4.1 percent higher than a
year ago.

Georgia Department of Labor

Economic Indicators / Second Quarter 2003 3

Georgia Index of Economic Indicators
208
Leading indicators Coincident indicators
181

154

128

101
1990 = 100

74 1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

Georgia's Leading Economic Indicator Shows Positive Signals

Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted.
*** As the economy passes the midyear point, signs of stabilization reverberate through the state's economy raising the possibility of a second-half rebound. The Georgia's Department of Labor's Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) turned upward in the second quarter, with three months of consecutive gains. The index started at 175.5 in April posting a modest gain of 0.2 percent. Then in May, the index increased to 175.9, another 0.2 percent increase. In June the index ended the quarter at 177.5, a moderate increase of 0.9 percent. The second quarter didn't have any record breaking individual months, but cumulatively the index posted it's best second quarter reading in the past two years.

Residential construction, which is expected to slow as interest rates rise, increased 11.8 percent in June, after declining 15.0 percent in May. We are finally starting to see some relief in initial jobless claims (down 8.9 percent in June) after peaking in May. The manufacturing workweek increased slightly to 40.8 hours in June. Sales of new motor vehicles, new business filings and nonresidential construction all took a dip in June.
The Coincident Economic Indicator (CEI) had a more volatile reading in the second quarter then the LEI. The index increased slightly to 169.2 in April then moved ahead to 171.1 in May (up 1.1 percent), then stumbled back to 170.7 (a 0.2 percent decline) in June.

Unemployment increased to 5.4 percent and state revenues declined in June after increasing dramatically in May. Non-farm employment increased for the fourth consecutive month; however, retail employment remains sluggish.
The economy is looking modestly better. However, until all of this good news translates into more jobs the verdict is still out.
The Leading Index reflects activity that will impact the economy for a duration of three to six months into the future. Coincident indicators measure current conditions.

4 Economic Indicators / Second Quarter 2003

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia
Nonagricultural Employment change from previous month
Retail Employment change from previous month
Manufacturing Employment change from previous month
Manufacturing Workweek (hours) change from previous month
Weekly Manufacturing Earnings change from previous month
Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled change from previous month
Initial Unemployment Claims change from previous month
Continued Unemployment Claims change from previous month
Unemployment rate (not seasonally adjusted) change from previous month
Insured Unemployment Rate change from previous month
New Motor Vehicle Sales change from previous month
Residential Construction (building permits) change from previous month
Nonresidential Construction ( dollar value) change from previous month
New Business Corporations change from previous month
Total State Revenues ( in millions ) change from previous month
Deflated State Revenues ( in millions ) change from previous month
Georgia Department of Labor

June 2003 3,925,474 0.03%
457,535 -0.50%
445,131 -0.50%
40.8 0.71%
$578.53 -0.36%
12,866 7.10%
56,465 -8.99%
390,175 21.59%
5.4% - -
2.03% - -
35,551 -11.40%
7,054 11.87%
$405,824,522 -13.14%
5,191 -18.47%
$1,072,549,487 -21.15%
583,859,600 -21.23%

May 2003 3,924,271 0.24%
459,829 -0.23%
447,389 -0.43%
40.5 0.42%
$580.63 3.52%
12,013 19.31%
62,040 7.29%
320,893 14.00%
4.6% - -
2.15% - -
40,127 -14.84%
6,305 -15.04%
$467,201,563 44.42%
6,367 11.47%
$1,360,187,810 54.27%
741,248,000 54.52%

April 2003 3,914,795
- -
460,883 - -
449,306 - -
40.3 - -
$560.89 - -
10,069 - -
57,827 - -
281,476 - -
4.4% - -
1.92% - -
47,116 - -
7,421 - -
$323,512,952 - -
5,712 - -
$881,700,618 - -
479,706,200 - -

Economic Indicators / Second Quarter 2003 5

MILLIONS

THOUSANDS

GEORGIA

4.02

2001- 2002 2002- 2003

3.98

44.2 2001-2002 2002-2003
42.7

3.93

41.3

HOURS

3.89

39.8

3.84
Nonagricultural Employment
3.80
500
480
460

38.4
Manufacturing Workweek
36.9 $610
$580
$550

DOLLARS

440

$520

420
Retail Employment
400
550

$490
Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings
$460
$340

520

$325

490

$310

DOLLARS

460

$295

430

$280

Manufacturing Employment

Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings

400

$265

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

Employment

2001: Q3 Q4
2002: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2003: Q1 Apr. May Jun.

Nonag
3,932,362 3,904,177 3,917,900 3,907,837 3,900,149 3,897,861 3,909,766 3,914,795 3,924,271 3,925,474

Retail
458,481 453,450 453,237 456,186 453,215 454,103 461,004 460,883 459,829 457,535

Mfg.
490,195 478,563 471,521 472,759 473,759 469,658 461,490 449,306 447,389 445,131

All graphs contain monthly data and are seasonally adjusted, except where noted.

Manufacturing

Avg. Work Week

Weekly Earnings

41.2

$525.03

40.3

516.67

41.1

549.23

41.1

545.70

40.7

534.06

40.7

560.83

40.6

564.46

40.3

560.89

40.5

580.63

40.8

578.53

Deflated Wkly Earnings
$295.35 291.47 308.73 303.45 295.71 309.57 308.44 305.17 316.42 314.93

THOUSANDS

6 Economic Indicators / Second Quarter 2003

Georgia Department of Labor

THOUSANDS

THOUSANDS

GEORGIA
19.7 2001- 2002 2002- 2003
16.2
12.7
9.2
5.7
Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled
2.2
99.6
80.9

PERCENTAGES

6.3 2001- 2002 2002- 2003
5.7
5.2
4.6
4.1
Unemployment Rate
3.5
3.26
2.76

PERCENTAGES

62.1

2.26

43.4

1.76

24.6
Initial Unemployment Claims
5.9
550

1.26
Insured Unemployment Rate
0.76
63

450

56

THOUSANDS

350

50

250

43

150

37

Continued Unemployment Claims

New Motor Vehicle Sales

50

30

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

2001: Q3 Q4
2002: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2003: Q1 Apr. May Jun.

Job Openings
8,287 7,624 9,214 9,697 10,246 10,690 11,486 10,069 12,013 12,866

Initial Claims
53,592 61,024 46,376 49,953 44,835 50,556 49,032 57,827 62,040 56,465

1 Rate at the end of each quarter, except for monthly rates.

Unemployment

Continued Claims
277,203

Rate 1
4.2%

348,012

4.5%

309,885

5.1%

342,513

5.7%

321,650

5.4%

303,933

5.1%

299,701

4.7%

281,476

4.4%

320,893

4.6%

390,175

5.4%

Insured 1
1.73% 2.09% 2.06% 1.94% 1.96% 2.19% 1.99% 1.92% 2.15% 2.03%

New Motor Vehicle Sales
47,677 47,801 46,658 43,752 47,308 42,452 45,229 47,116 40,127 35,551

THOUSANDS

Georgia Department of Labor

Economic Indicators / Second Quarter 2003

7

HOUSEHOLD UNITS

MILLIONS

GEORGIA

10,277 9,388

2001-2002 2002-2003

7,123 6,068

2001- 2002 2002- 2003

CHARTERS

8,499

5,014

7,609 6,720 5,831 $810 $672 $534 $396

Residential Construction

MILLIONS

3,959 2,905 1,850 $1,683 $1,466 $1,250 $1,033

New Business Corporations

$258

$817

Nonresidential Construction

$120

$600

$675

$940

Total State Revenue

$550

$823

$425

$706

MILLIONS

$300

$589

$175
$50 J

$472

Deflated Nonresidential Construction

$355

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

Deflated Total State Revenue

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

MILLIONS

Construction Residential 2 Non-residential 1 Deflated non-res 1

2001: Q3

7,639

Q4

7,428

2002: Q1

7,794

Q2

8,400

Q3

7,861

Q4

7,970

2003: Q1

7,350

Apr.

7,421

May

6,305

Jun.

7,054

1 Data rounded

2 Household units 3 Includes limited liability companies

$496,546,000 499,825,000 441,608,000 448,637,000 436,092,000 492,563,000 408,989,000 323,513,000 467,202,000 405,825,000

$403,695,900 402,111,800 356,710,800 362,193,500 351,592,600 391,337,100 318,858,400 251,174,700 363,864,500 315,817,100

8 Economic Indicators / Second Quarter 2003

New Business Corporations 3
4,846 3,645 5,236 4,785 5,180 5,186 4,950 5,712 6,367 5,191

Total State Revenue 1 Deflated Rev. 1

$1,098,360,000 1,089,340,000 1,040,070,000 1,131,250,000 1,004,900,000 1,073,530,000 1,037,440,000
881,700,000 1,360,190,000 1,072,550,000

$617,866,100 614,520,500 584,637,400 629,054,700 556,423,000 592,564,900 566,907,100 479,706,200 741,248,000 583,859,600

Georgia Department of Labor

Consumer Price Index for Atlanta

YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Rate

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

76.4 87.2 92.8 97.9 102.6 107.0 111.7
159.5 161.9 167.4 175.3 176.1 180.7

78.0 88.2 92.9 98.7 103.2 107.6 111.1
160.8 164.0 169.8 176.6 178.6 182.1

80.3 89.3 96.5 100.2 104.1 108.8 112.2 115.5 119.1 124.9 130.8 135.5 138.6 142.2 146.7 150.3 154.7 158.3 162.0 164.8 170.9 177.8 179.1 181.5

81.7 91.6 98.0 100.8 104.8 109.9 112.4
161.9 165.9 172.1 176.9 179.7

83.0 93.3 98.8 100.9 105.4 110.4 112.7
162.0 166.5 171.9 176.7 179.4

85.7 93.6 98.2 101.9 105.5 111.2 113.5 117.5 121.7 127.3 132.6 136.2 138.5 144.7 146.7 151.5 157.2 159.5 161.6 167.0 171.9 174.8 177.3

15.8% 9.2% 4.9% 3.8% 3.5% 5.4% 2.1% 3.8% 3.3% 4.7% 4.4% 3.2% 1.9% 3.5% 2.3% 2.9% 3.4% 1.9% 1.4% 3.3% 2.9% 1.7% 1.4%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics @ www.bls.gov

The CPI for Atlanta Declines 0.3 percent

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) for Atlanta decreased 0.3 percent over the two months ending in June to a level of 181.5 (1982-84=100), not seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. For the 12-months ending in June, the CPIU for Atlanta increased 1.3 percent.
Over the two months, lower costs for apparel and transportation accounted for almost all of the decrease in the all items index. Energy costs advanced 1.6 percent after rising 4.2 percent in April. Excluding food and energy, the CPIU for Atlanta dropped 0.5 percent since April.
The index for housing increased 0.7 percent over the two months. Shelter costs decreased 0.5 percent. Since April, the index for fuel and
Georgia Department of Labor

Following is the formula for figuring

Consumer Price Index changes from one

point in time to another.

Index point change

CPI

112.5

Less previous index

108.5

Equals index point change

4.0

Percentage change

Index point difference

4.0

Divide by the previous index 108.5

Equals

0.037

Results multiplied by 100 0.037x100

Equals percent change

3.7%

utilities advanced 6.1 percent. Over the year, housing costs rose 1.5 percent primarily due to rising costs of fuels and utilities (7.6 percent). Utility natural gas service accounted for all of that increase, rising 26.6 percent over the past 12 months.

Electricity costs declined 0.1 percent for that same time period.
Apparel costs dropped 7.8 percent in the two months ending in June. Over the past 12 months, apparel costs in Atlanta have decreased 5.5 percent.
The transportation index decreased 1.2 percent in the MayJune pricing period. The index for gasoline dropped 6.7 percent over the two months accounting for all of the decrease in the transportation index. Over the first six months of 2003, gasoline costs in the Atlanta area have risen 11.9 percent. Over the year, transportation costs have risen 2.3 percent, as gasoline costs climbed 7.3 percent.
The medical care index recorded
a 0.1 percent decrease over two
months. Over the past year, medical
care costs have risen 7.9 percent.

Economic Indicators / Second Quarter 2003 9

Metro Atlanta Index of Economic Indicators
184.9
Leading indicators Coincident indicators
165.6

146.3

127.1

107.8
1995-96 = 100

88.5

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

Possible Turnaround In The Making

Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted.

***

With half of the year behind us and a little wind in our economic sails, a jet stream leading to the land of economic recovery could very well be around the corner. The economy has entered the third quarter with a rash of positive economic signs, which could indeed turn the economic tides.
The Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for Metropolitan Atlanta started the second quarter in negative territory, down 0.7 percent in April, anchoring the index at 169.6. In May, with a 0.2 percent increase, the index inched forward to 170.1. The index came in stronger than expected in June, posting a 1.9 percent increase, pushing the LEI up to 173.3.
Employment continues to increase by posting moderate gains throughout the first half of the year.

Nonagricultural employment has increased six consecutive months for the first time since the recession officially started in March 2001. Higher employment numbers translated into fewer initial jobless claims, down in May and June, 4.8 and 2.5 percent, respectively.
Residential construction managed to post two increases in the April to June quarter, despite concerns of rising interest rates and slower home sales in the future. Commercial construction continues to fluctuate as the market works off excess capacity.
The Coincident Economic Indicator, which measures current economic conditions, declined 0.5 percent in April to 163.5 and then fell again in May to 163.0 (down 0.3

percent) before rebounding 1.7 percent in June to 165.8. Discount driven consumers, soft demand and increased competition are forcing big box retailers to evaluate their operations. Retailers are discounting items, restructuring operations or even pulling out of the metro area. Retail employment inched up 0.2 percent in June after slipping in April and May. Unemployment in the metro area hit 5.5 percent (before seasonal adjustments), up slightly from the previous month.
The next two quarters will determine the fate of this more than two year voyage. Any unexpected high winds or waves could throw this economic recovery off course, again.

10 Economic Indicators / Second Quarter 2003

Georgia Department of Labor

Metro Atlanta

Jun-2003

May-2003

Percent Percent

Change Change

May-2003 Apr-2003

to

to

Apr-2003 Jun-2003 May-2003

Nonagricultural Employment

2,199,327

Wholesale Employment

133,991

Retail Employment

248,666

Accommodation and Food Services Employment

175,670

Manufacturing Employment

161,123

Government Employment

285,914

Construction Employment

120,260

Trans., Warehousing and Utilities Employment

108,792

Financial Activities Employment

145,111

Professional and Business Services Employment

381,563

Hospital Services Employment

57,836

Social Assistance Employment

23,368

Manufacturing Workweek

39.0

Manufacturing Earnings

$591.53

Deflated Manufacturing Earnings

$322.01

Initial Unemployment Claims

15,044

Continued Unemployment Claims

207,363

Total Unemployment Rate ( not seasonally adjusted )

5.5

Insured Unemployment Rate

1.93%

MARTA Passengers

5,698,000

Cobb County Transit Passengers

195,976

Residential Construction (household units)

4,710

Nonresidential Construction (value)

$261,636,000

Deflated Nonresidential Construction

$203,600,000

Hotel Occupancy

56.6%

Average Hotel Room Rates

$74.77

Deflated Average Hotel Room Rate

$40.70

Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate

5.22%

Average 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate

4.61%

Average One-Year Adjustable Mortgage Rate

3.18%

2,196,892 134,937 248,177 173,001 164,135 286,787 121,867 107,721 144,517 376,956 57,962 26,021 37.9 $584.23 $318.38 15,431 167,940 4.8 1.96%
5,252,000 180,012 4,256
$291,629,000 $227,100,000
55.8% $69.84 $38.06 5.44% 4.86% 3.31%

2,188,862 136,565 249,137 171,096 166,403 289,309 119,760 108,727 143,738 369,471 57,613 25,255 39.1 $589.73 $320.86 16,218 159,916 4.6 1.86%
5,761,000 194,840 4,902
$198,184,000 $153,900,000
53.5% $71.87 $39.10 5.74% 5.08% 3.47%

0.11% -0.70% 0.20% 1.54% -1.83% -0.30% -1.32% 0.99% 0.41% 1.22% -0.22% -10.19% 2.87% 1.25% 1.14% -2.51% 23.47%
8.49% 8.87% 10.66% -10.28% -10.35% 7.05% 6.94% -

0.37% -1.19% -0.39% 1.11% -1.36% -0.87% 1.76% -0.93% 0.54% 2.03% 0.61% 3.03% -3.06% -0.93% -0.77% -4.85% 5.02%
-8.84% -7.61% -13.18% 47.15% 47.56% -2.82% -2.66% -

Georgia Department of Labor

Economic Indicators / Second Quarter 2003 11

MILLIONS

THOUSANDS

Metro Atlanta

2.24 2.22

2001-2002 2002-2003

2.19

2.17
2.14
Nonagricultural Employment
2.12

150

145 140

135 130
Wholesale Employment
125 270

260

THOUSANDS

THOUSANDS

300 2001- 2002 2002- 2003
250

200
150
100
Accommodation and Food Services
50

220

200

180

160

140

Manufacturing Employment

120

310

300

THOUSANDS

250

290

240

280

230
Retail Employment

270
Government Employment

220 J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

260

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

THOUSANDS

Period
2001 :Q3 Q4
2002 :Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2003 :Q1 Apr May Jun

Nonag
2,189,656 2,170,232 2,179,602 2,187,850 2,170,072 2,165,678 2,179,868 2,188,862 2,196,892 2,199,327

Wholesale
142,935 140,392 142,714 143,538 140,903 140,245 140,839 136,565 134,937 133,991

Employment

Retail

Accom. & Food Services

253,176 249,327 247,873 249,841 248,473 247,770 250,854 249,137 248,177 248,666

168,195 170,810 167,837 172,037 167,944 166,992 167,285 171,096 173,001 175,670

Manufacturing
180,238 174,470 171,189 173,126 169,593 169,181 167,983 166,403 164,135 161,123

Government
277,440 278,909 278,665 282,007 286,104 288,326 290,146 289,309 286,787 285,914

12 Economic Indicators / Second Quarter 2003

Georgia Department of Labor

THOUSANDS

THOUSANDS

Metro Atlanta
132 2001- 2002 2002- 2003
126
120
114
108
Construction Employment
102
140
130
120
110
100
Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Employment
90
155

THOUSANDS

THOUSANDS

400 2001- 2002 2002- 2003
380
360
340
320
Professional and Business Services Employment
300
80
70
60
50
40
Hospital Services Employment
30
40

151

35

147

30

THOUSANDS

143

25

139
Financial Activities Employment

20
Social Assistance Employment

135

15

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

Period
2001 :Q3 Q4
2002 :Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2003 :Q1 Apr May Jun

Construction
120,630 119,221 121,539 118,075 116,408 116,369 118,618 119,760 121,867 120,260

Trans, Ware & Utilities
121,417 118,616 115,924 116,827 113,881 111,873 112,559 108,727 107,721 108,792

Employment

Financial Activities

Professional & Business Services

144,997 145,574 148,163 146,444 145,135 145,488 144,536 143,738 144,517 145,111

363,102 358,915 363,112 365,666 359,489 355,674 359,355 369,471 376,956 381,563

Hospital Services
54,282 54,823 56,012 55,545 55,074 56,032 57,246 57,613 57,962 57,836

Social Assistance
24,810 25,010 24,971 25,311 25,183 25,330 26,089 25,255 26,021 23,368

THOUSANDS

Georgia Department of Labor

Economic Indicators / Second Quarter 2003 13

HOURS

DOLLARS

Metro Atlanta

44. 0 42. 5

2001-2002 2002-2003

41. 0 39. 5

38. 0
Manufacturing Workweek
36. 5
$ 675

$ 645

$ 615

$ 585

$ 555
Manufacturing Earnings
$ 525
475

THOUSANDS

THOUSANDS

26. 9 2001-2002 2002-2003
21. 9
16. 9
11. 9
6. 9
Initial Unemployment Claims
1. 9 275
225
175
125
75
Continued Unemployment Claims
25
6.5

420

5.7

PERCENTAGES

365

4.9

310

4.1

255
Deflated Manufacturing Earnings

200

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

3.3
Unemployment Rate

2.5

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

DOLLARS

Period
2001 :Q3 Q4
2002 :Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2003 :Q1 Apr May Jun

Work Week (hrs)
41.7 39.8 40.1 40.0 39.0 39.5 39.3 39.1 37.9 39.0

Manufacturing
Weekly Earnings
$587.04 585.21 617.37 607.08 592.97 603.96 595.25 589.73 584.23 591.53

Deflated Earnings
$330.23 330.14 347.00 337.58 328.33 333.37 325.28 320.86 318.38 322.01

14 Economic Indicators / Second Quarter 2003

Initial Claims
12,560 16,544 13,434 14,878 13,060 13,623 13,272 16,218 15,431 15,044

Unemployment
Continued Claims
126,694 183,017 171,515 186,676 173,034 163,621 158,677 159,916 167,940 207,363

Rate
3.8% 4.4% 5.2% 5.9% 5.6% 5.2% 4.7% 4.6% 4.8% 5.5%

Georgia Department of Labor

PERCENTAGES

MILLIONS

Metro Atlanta
2.9 2001- 2002 2002- 2003
2.5

7.5 2001- 2002 2002-2003
6.6

HOUSEHOLD UNITS ( THOUSANDS )

2.1

5.8

1.7

4.9

1.3
Insured Unemployment Rate
0.9 7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
MARTA Passengers
4.5
245

MILLIONS

4.1 3.2 $600 $480 $360 $240 $120 $0 $431

Residential Construction Nonresidential Construction

221

$346

197

$261

MILLIONS

173

$176

149
Cobb Community Transit Passengers

$91
Deflated Nonresidential Construction

125 J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

$6

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

THOUSANDS

Period
2001 :Q3 Q4
2002 :Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2003 :Q1 Apr May Jun

Insured Unemployment
Rate 2
1.70% 1.95% 2.06% 1.96% 1.83% 1.84% 1.81% 1.86% 1.96% 1.93%

Transit Passengers

MARTA 1
5,831,900 5,904,600 5,618,800 5,637,400 5,361,200 5,456,900 5,476,300 5,761,400 5,252,200 5,697,700

Cobb Community
177,181 187,516 175,120 167,733 178,376 193,958 191,127 194,840 180,012 195,976

Construction

Residential 3
5,202 5,122 5,181 5,721 5,180 5,442 4,831 4,902 4,256 4,710

Nonresidential
$338,729,000 317,069,000 296,865,000 283,007,000 290,063,000 285,491,000 236,366,000 198,184,000 291,629,000 261,636,000

Deflated Non-res
$275,533,333 255,000,000 239,766,667 228,500,000 233,766,667 226,833,333 184,166,667 153,900,000 227,100,000 203,600,000

1 Data rounded 2 Rate at the end of each quarter, except for monthly rates.
Georgia Department of Labor

3 Household units Economic Indicators / Second Quarter 2003 15

PERCENTAGES

DOLLARS

Metro Atlanta
75 2001- 2002 2002- 2003
69

7.50 2001- 2002 2002- 2003
6.90

PERCENTAGES

63

6.30

56

5.70

50
Hotel Occupancy
44 $87
$82
$78
$74
$69
Average Hotel Room Rates
$65
$49

PERCENTAGES

5.10
Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
4.50
7.10
6.48
5.86
5.24
4.62
Average 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
4.00
7.61

$47

6.43

PERCENTAGES

$44

5.25

$41

4.07

$38

2.89

Deflated Average Hotel Room Rates

Average One-Year Adjustable Mortgage Rates

$35

1.71

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

DOLLARS

Hotel Data

Period

Occupancy %

Room Rates

Deflated Room Rates

3 0 - Ye a r Fixed 1

2001 :Q3 Q4
2002 :Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2003 :Q1 Apr
*May Jun

58.3% 58.4% 60.2% 57.8% 57.7% 58.2% 56.8% 53.5% 55.8% 56.6%

$76.20 76.60 77.65 77.55 75.75 77.10 74.18 71.87 69.84 74.77

$42.87 43.21 43.65 43.13 41.94 42.56 40.54 39.10 38.06 40.70

6.82% 7.17% 7.00% 6.60% 6.16% 6.00% 5.74% 5.74% 5.44% 5.22%

* Monthly hotel data for May was not available, data for the weekending May 24 was used instead. 1 Rate does not include points

Mortgage Rates

1 5 - Ye a r Fixed 1

O n e - Ye a r Rate Adjustable 1

6.35% 6.65% 6.55% 6.11% 5.58% 5.40% 5.10% 5.08% 4.86% 4.61%

5.38% 5.26% 4.98% 4.29% 4.20% 3.63% 3.43% 3.47% 3.31% 3.18%

16 Economic Indicators / Second Quarter 2003

Georgia Department of Labor

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