Economic Indicators
A Quarterly Report of Georgia and Metro Atlanta Labor Market and Economic Trends
Second Quarter 2005
Volume 11, Issue 2
Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner
Georgia-Atlanta Economic Indicators
Quarterly Report Second Quarter - 2005
Volume 11, Issue 2
Cover art: Jekyll Island Club, Georgia by Huey J. Theus
Georgia Economic Indicators, Quarterly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 232-3875.
Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us
Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner
Equal Opportunity Employer/Programs - Auxiliary Aids and Services Available Upon Request to Individuals With Disabilities
Georgia Department of Labor
Economic Indicators / Second Quarter 2005
Contents
History ............................................................................................................................................................ 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................. 2 U.S. Consumer Price Index ......................................................................................................................... 3 Georgia Index of Economic Indicators ...................................................................................................... 4 Georgia Data Summary ................................................................................................................................ 5
Employment, Manufacturing Wages and Hours .................................................................................... 6 Nonagricultural, Retail, Manufacturing,Workweek, Earnings and Deflated Earnings
Job Openings, Unemployment Data and Vehicle Sales ........................................................................ 7 Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Initial/ Continued Unemployment Claims, Unemployment Rate, Insured Unemployment Rate and New Motor Vehicle Sales
Construction, New Business and State Revenue ................................................................................... 8 Residential/ Nonresidential Construction, Deflated Nonresidential Construction, New Business Corporations, Total/ Deflated State Revenue
Consumer Price Index for the South or Metro Atlanta ........................................................................... 9 Metro Atlanta Index of Economic Indicators ........................................................................................... 10 Atlanta Data Summary ................................................................................................................................ 11
Employment Data ......................................................................................................................................... 12 Nonagricultural, Wholesale, (Retail Accommodation and Food Services), Manufacturing and Government
Employment Data - Continued ..................................................................................................................... 13 Construction, (Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities), Financial Activities, Professional and Business Services, Hospital Services and Social Assistance
Manufacturing Workweek, Earnings and Unemployment Data .......................................................... 14 Manufacturing -(Workweek, Earnings and Deflated Earnings), Initial/ Continued Unemployment Claims and Unemployment Rates
Unemployment Data, Transit and Construction Data ............................................................................ 15 Insured Unemployment Rate, MARTA Passengers, Cobb Community Transit Passengers, Residential/ Nonresidential Construction and Deflated Nonresidential Construction
Hotel and Mortgage Rates ......................................................................................................................... 16 Hotel Occupancy, Average Hotel Room Rates, Deflated Average Hotel Room Rates, Average 30-Year/ 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates and Average One-Year Adjustable Mortgage Rates
History
The Jekyll Island Club Hotel, located on a Georgia barrier island of unusual natural beauty, is a Victorian treasure. Recognized as a National Historic Landmark in 1978, it has been designated a Historic Hotel of America by the National Trust for Historic Preservation. Originally a hunting retreat for the nation's wealthy elite, the hotel today is a unique resort with architectural character and a charming historic ambience.
The main structures, built between 1887 and 1902, were designed by Charles Alexander of Chicago and Charles Alling Gifford of New York. Alexander designed the original club house in the American Queen Anne style, incorporating into its plan the turret which dominates the roof line, extensive verandas, bay windows, extended chimneys and overall asymmetrical design.
Handsome interior details include Ionic columns in the dining room, twelve-and fifteen-foot ceilings, oak wainscoting and other handsomely detailed woodwork, as well as leaded art glass and 93 distinctively detailed fireplaces. Gifford, associated with the New York architectural firm of McKim, Mead, and White, designed a majority of the other club buildings. As an exclusive hunting retreat for the nation's wealthiest financiers and industrialists of the 1880's, the Jekyll Island Club was the site of events and meetings of historic significance in the latter part of the Victorian period.
William K. Vanderbilt, J.P. Morgan, William Rockefeller, Joseph Pulitzer and 50 or so of their friends, contemplating the ideal location for their hunting club in 1886, chose Jekyll Island. Its climate, abundant wild life, and natural beauty appealed to them. Once the decision was made, it took just two years to incorporate the club, purchase the island, and have the club house constructed. In January of 1888, they gathered their families and boarded their yachts for the first "season" on Jekyll. They expected to have a wonderful time. And they did. A collection of sepia photographs captures the spirit of these families as they enjoyed Jekyll's considerable outdoor pleasures...morning hunting trips, lawn parties, carriage rides, leisurely afternoons at the beach. Dinner each evening, however, was the high point of the day. Women would spend hours selecting the dresses they would wear to the dining room; men would have definite ideas about what they hoped to accomplish in over-dinner conversations with each other. In those conversations decisions might be made which would literally determine the next president of the country, the health of the nation's economy, or the career of any of their peers.
The events of the world impacted the members of the Club, and in turn club members had far reaching effects on the nation. World War I offered several members the opportunity to give their yachts to the U.S. war effort and to provide financial assistance. Although several members had had considerable influence in mitigating the force of economic panics throughout the last half of the 1800's and later, no one was powerful enough to prevent the Great Depression. In two year's time, half the Club's membership dropped away. The final blow to the life of the Club, however, was World War II and the threat of enemy submarines just off the coast. Members left in 1942 expecting to return another year, but, indeed few ever returned.
By 1947 the State of Georgia gained the ownership of the island and established it as a state park. Jekyll Development Associates leased the present hotel structures and grounds from the State of Georgia, completely rejuvenated them, and further prepared for the opening of the Jekyll Island Club Hotel in 1986.
Crane Cottage and Cherokee Cottage, Italian Renaissance in architectural style, have recently been added to the hotel's collection of overnight accommodations. The architectural firm of Smith Dalia, LLC, of Atlanta, GA, designers for the $5.5 million project, worked with the Jekyll Island State Park Authority in developing the Historic District Master Plan in 1997. Their work on this new chapter in Jekyll Island history, an example of their commitment to excellence and integrity in historic renovation, has resulted in a beautiful recreation of Crane and Cherokee Cottages.
Guests visiting the Jekyll Island Club Hotel today may enjoy dinner in the Grand Dining Room where former members of the club made significant decisions, enjoy the beauty of the leaded art glass and other interior details, and imagine visiting the club for the "season" in the early 1900's. Whether their primary interest is architecture or history, guests find their visit rewarding to the Jekyll Island Club Hotel, a Victorian treasure.
Introduction
G eorgia Economic Indicators, Quarterly Report, is designed to provide data on a number of indicators used
to measure movement of the state's economy in a single publication.
Our publication has changed.
The Georgia and Metropolitan Altanta Economic Indicator series, previously published as two separate monthly publications, are now published as a single quarterly publication. Graphs will continue to display data in monthly increments; whereas companion data tables will display the 3-month average for each series (for 7 quarters) before alternating to a monthly format for the most recent quarter.
All data except those contained in the U.S. and Atlanta Consumer Price Index chart on Pages 3 and 9 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data that have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars.
Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually.
Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning the GeorgiaAtlanta Economic Indicators, Quarterly Report and Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Bill Webb, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 232-3875.
Note: The area formerly known as the Atlanta MSA has been changed to Atlanta-Sandy SpringsMarietta MSA which now includes: Barrow, Bartow, Butts, Carroll, Cherokee, Clayton, Cobb, Coweta, Dawson, Dekalb, Douglas, Fayette, Forsyth, Fulton, Gwinnett, Haralson, Heard, Henry, Jasper, Lamar, Meriwether, Newton, Paulding, Pickens, Pike, Rockdale, Spalding and Walton counties.
Data Sources
Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Manufacturing Workweek and Employment data. -- Georgia Department of Labor
Consumer Price Index -- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, adapted from commentary by Michael Wald New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group MARTA Passengers -- Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit System CCT Passengers -- Cobb Community Transit System Hotel Occupancy and Room Rates -- PKF Consulting, Atlanta, GA (as of July 2003) Mortgage Rates -- HSH Associates, Financial Publishers, Butler, NJ
* Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center
2 Economic Indicators / Second Quarter 2005
Georgia Department of Labor
Consumer Price Index
Chart is not seasonally adjusted
YEAR
JAN
FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
ANN AVG
* CPI RATE
1992
138.1
138.6
139.3
139.5 139.7 140.2 140.5 140.9
141.3
141.9
142.0
141.9
140.3
2.9%
1993
142.6
143.1
143.6
144.0 144.2 144.4 144.4 144.8
145.1
145.7
145.8
145.8
144.5
2.7%
1994
146.2
146.7
147.2
147.4 147.5 148.0 148.4 149.0
149.4
149.5
149.7
149.7
148.2
2.7%
1995
150.3
150.9
151.4
151.9 152.2 152.5 152.5 152.9
153.2
153.7
153.6
153.5
152.4
2.5%
1996
154.4
154.9
155.7
156.3 156.6 156.7 157.0 157.3
157.8
158.3
158.6
158.6
156.9
3.3%
1997
159.1
159.6
160.0
160.2 160.1 160.3 160.5 160.8
161.2
161.6
161.5
161.3
160.5
1.7%
1998
161.6
161.9
162.2
162.5 162.8 163.0 163.2 163.4
163.6
164.0
164.0
163.9
163.0
1.6%
1999
164.3
164.5
165.0
166.2 166.2 166.2 166.7 167.1
167.9
168.2
168.3
168.3
166.6
2.7%
2000
168.7
169.7
171.1
171.2 171.3 172.3 172.6 172.8
173.7
174.0
174.1
174.0
172.1
3.4%
2001
175.1
175.8
176.2
176.9 177.7 178.0 177.5 177.5
178.3
177.7
177.4
176.7
177.1
1.6%
2002
177.1
177.8
178.8
179.8 179.8 179.9 180.1 180.7
181.0
181.3
181.3
180.9
179.9
2.4%
2003
181.7
183.1
184.2
183.8 183.5 183.7 183.9 184.6
185.2
185.0
184.5
184.3
184.0
1.9%
2004
185.2
186.2
187.4
188.0 189.1 189.7 189.4 189.5
189.9
190.9
191.0
190.3
188.9
3.3%
2005
190.7
191.8
193.3
194.6
* Rate computed from December to December
194.4
194.5
Source: U.S. Bureau Of Labor Statistics @www.bls.gov
CPI Cools Down in June
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in June, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. The June level of 194.5 (1982-84=100) was 2.5 percent higher than in June 2004.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U was unchanged in June, following a decrease of 0.1 percent in May. Energy costs declined for the second consecutive month, down 0.5 percent in June. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent in June, the same as in May. An upturn in shelter costs was offset by declines or smaller increases in most other nonfood and non-energy indexes.
Consumer prices increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 1.9 percent in the second quarter after advancing at a 4.3 percent rate in the first three months of 2005. This brings the year-to-date annual rate to 3.1 percent and compares with an increase of 3.3 percent in all of 2004. The index for energy, which rose 16.6 percent in 2004, advanced at a 14.1
percent SAAR in the first half of 2005 and accounted for 35 percent of the advance in the overall CPI-U during the first six months of 2005.
The CPI-U excluding food and energy advanced at a 1.2 percent SAAR in the second quarter, following an increase of 3.3 percent in the first three months of 2005. A smaller increase in shelter costs was primarily responsible for the slowdown in the second quarter.
The index for housing rose 0.1 percent in June. Shelter costs, which were virtually unchanged in each of the two preceding months, rose 0.2 percent in June. The index for fuels and utilities rose 0.1 percent. The index for household furnishings and operations, which rose 0.6 percent in May, declined 0.6 percent in June. A 1.3 percent decline in the index for furniture and bedding accounted for about half of the overall June decrease.
The transportation index declined 0.1 percent in June. The index for gasoline declined for the second consecutive month, down 1.2 percent in June after falling 4.4 percent in May. The index for new vehicles was
unchanged, while the index for used cars and trucks rose 0.8 percent in June. The index for public transportation increased 1.2 percent in June, largely reflecting an increase in the index for airline fares. Airline fares registered their fifth consecutive advance, up 2.3 percent in June. With the recent advances, airline fares are not only 5.8 percent higher than a year ago, but are now higher than in the month prior to the terrorist attacks in 2001.
The index for apparel was unchanged in May, declined 0.7 percent in June. (Prior to seasonal adjustment, apparel prices declined 3.3 percent, reflecting seasonal discounting of spring-summer wear.)
Medical care costs rose 0.2 percent in June to a level 4.2 percent higher than a year ago. The index for medical care commodities increased 0.3 percent in June. The index for medical care services rose 0.2 percent in June, with the indexes for professional services and for hospital and related services up 0.1 percent
Georgia Department of Labor
Economic Indicators / Second Quarter 2005 3
Georgia Index of Economic Indicators
234
Leading indicators Coincident indicators
208
181
154
128
1990 = 100
101 1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Auto Sales Help Index Move Forward
Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted.
***
The Georgia Department of Labor's Economic Indicators laid out the ground work for a prosperous second quarter. After the indexes were hit with a batch of mixed signals during the first quarter, a collection of positive gains uplifted the economic indicators in the second quarter.
The Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) ended the quarter at 195.2, up 1.7%, higher than the 0.1% reported in the previous quarter, but lower than the 2.7% recorded in Q2 of 2004. During the three month reporting period the index increased in April and May up 0.5% and 1.5%, respectively, before declining 0.2% in June. Some creative marketing helped to sell more autos during the quarter, which added to the index's momentum along with a few months of strong construction activity.
American car manufacturers have stepped up their marketing campaigns with employee discount programs. Sales of automotive vehicles nationwide increased in June (total auto sales were up 23.5% in Georgia after seasonal adjustment). Residential construction (up 23.3% in May) continues to thrive despite measured rate increases by the Federal Reserve. Commercial construction (up 51.1% in April) seems to be picking up momentum as the economic picture becomes clearer.
The manufacturing workweek remained below the 40 hour mark since the second quarter of 2003. Initial jobless claims remained under 40K, but moved upward over the quarter.
The Coincident Economic Indicator (CEI) advanced to 186.3 at a moderate pace over the reporting period. The index ended the quarter up 0.6%, slightly lower than the 0.8% increase in Q1 and the 0.9% posted in the second quarter of last year. The index increased in April (0.2%), May (0.2%) and June (0.1%).
Despite a higher jobless rate of 5.6% and lackluster hiring in the retail sector, the index managed to post positive results over the quarter.
Economic activity seems to point to more moderate growth in the second half of the year. However, significantly higher fuel costs and interest rates could possibly dampen growth.
4 Economic Indicators / Second Quarter 2005
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia
Nonagricultural Employment change from previous month
Retail Employment change from previous month
Manufacturing Employment change from previous month
Manufacturing Workweek (hours) change from previous month
Weekly Manufacturing Earnings change from previous month
Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled change from previous month
Initial Unemployment Claims change from previous month
Continued Unemployment Claims change from previous month
Unemployment rate (not seasonally adjusted) change from previous month
Insured Unemployment Rate change from previous month
New Motor Vehicle Sales change from previous month
Residential Construction ( building permits ) change from previous month
Nonresidential Construction ( dollar value ) change from previous month
New Business Corporations change from previous month
Total State Revenues ( in millions ) change from previous month
Deflated State Revenues ( in millions ) change from previous month
Georgia Department of Labor
Jun 2005
3,899,157 -0.37%
May 2005
3,913,446 -0.14%
Apr 2005
3,919,042 0.39%
437,562 -0.04%
437,720 0.19%
436,877 0.09%
438,405 -0.01%
438,468 -0.10%
438,927 0.04%
39.1 -0.37%
39.2 0.01%
39.2 0.75%
$571.97 -1.28%
$579.41 -2.16%
$592.22 4.65%
19,938 7.17%
18,605 10.44%
16,846 -8.91%
39,359 14.64%
34,334 -12.51%
39,243 8.11%
237,221 -8.76%
260,002 23.89%
209,865 -3.49%
5.6%
5.0%
4.7%
- -
- -
- -
1.47% - -
1.40% - -
1.43% - -
50,960 23.53%
41,254 -10.56%
46,126 1.54%
8,285 -11.79%
9,393 23.27%
7,620 -9.36%
$619,200,299 5.60%
$586,371,142 -4.24%
$612,333,819 51.17%
6,505 -19.21%
8,052 35.94%
5,923 -5.64%
$1,191,806,137 0.15%
$1,190,043,169 -16.90%
$1,432,045,287 2.57%
$612,755,800 0.10%
$612,160,500 -16.81%
$735,894,100 1.88%
Economic Indicators / Second Quarter 2005 5
MILLIONS
THOUSANDS
GEORGIA
4. 00
3. 96
2003-2004 2004-2005
3. 92
42. 2 40. 7 39. 3
2003-2004 2004-2005
HOURS
3. 88
37. 8
3. 84
Nonagricultural Employment
3. 80
500
36. 4
Manufacturing Workweek
34. 9
$ 645
480
$ 615
DOLLARS
460
$ 585
440
$ 555
420
Retail Employment
400
500
$ 525
Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings
$ 495
$ 345
480
$ 330
460
$ 315
DOLLARS
440
$ 300
420
$ 285
Manufacturing Employment
Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings
400
$ 270
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
Employment
2003: Q3 Q4
2004: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2005: Q1 2005: Apr
May Jun
Nonag
3,846,207 3,848,627 3,877,436 3,891,582 3,898,102 3,895,607 3,907,635 3,919,042 3,913,446 3,899,157
Retail
445,490 443,968 445,439 446,187 443,833 438,502 436,869 436,877 437,720 437,562
Mfg.
447,182 446,385 447,818 446,366 444,998 442,166 440,455 438,927 438,468 438,405
All graphs contain monthly data and are seasonally adjusted, except where noted.
Manufacturing
Avg. Work Week
Weekly Earnings
39.2
$549.22
38.9
554.56
39.4
575.53
39.5
588.75
38.9
566.95
38.9
546.90
39.4
563.47
39.2
592.22
39.2
579.41
39.1
571.97
Deflated Wkly Earnings
$297.59 300.41 308.96 311.63 299.03 286.73 293.58 304.33 298.05 294.07
THOUSANDS
6 Economic Indicators / Second Quarter 2005
Georgia Department of Labor
THOUSANDS
THOUSANDS
GEORGIA
25. 0
2003-2004 2004-2005
21. 0
6. 0 2003-2004 2004-2005
5. 4
PERCENTAGES
17. 0
4. 8
13. 0
4. 3
9. 0
3. 7
Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled
5. 0
3. 1
100. 0
2. 75
80. 0
2. 25
Unemployment Rate
PERCENTAGES
60. 0
1. 75
40. 0
1. 25
20. 0
Initial Unemployment Claims
0. 0 550
450
350
0. 75
Insured Unemployment Rate
0. 25
60
53
47
THOUSANDS
250
40
150
Continued Unemployment Claims
50
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
34
New Motor Vehicle Sales
27
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
THOUSANDS
2003: Q3 Q4
2004: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2005: Q1 2005: Apr
May Jun
Job Openings
13,958 14,006 14,722 15,209 15,039 17,725 18,588 16,846 18,605 19,938
Initial Claims
53,114 44,851 41,766 37,971 38,071 39,087 32,510 39,243 34,334 39,359
1 Rate at the end of each quarter, except for monthly rates. * Unemployment rate prior to seasonal adjustments.
Georgia Department of Labor
Unemployment
Continued
Claims
307,311
Rate 1*
4.6%
275,545
4.0%
268,956
4.4%
265,501
5.1%
244,764
4.6%
229,205
4.7%
217,354
5.0%
209,865
4.7%
260,002
5.0%
237,221
5.6%
Insured 1
1.88% 1.73% 1.58% 1.62% 1.54% 1.40% 1.34% 1.43% 1.40% 1.47%
New Motor Vehicle Sales
44,085 43,771 39,821 44,847 45,115 43,617 43,445 46,126 41,254 50,960
Economic Indicators / Second Quarter 2005
7
HOUSEHOLD UNITS
MILLIONS
GEORGIA
12, 200 10, 900
2003-2004 2004-2005
9, 600
8, 300
7, 000
Residential Construction
5, 700
$ 810
$ 672
CHARTERS
9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 $ 1,683 $ 1,466
2003-2004 2004-2005
New Business Corporations
$ 534
$ 1,250
MILLIONS
$ 396
$ 1,033
$ 258
$ 817
Nonresidential Construction
$ 120
$ 600
Total State Revenue
$ 675
$ 940
$ 550
$ 823
$ 425
$ 706
MILLIONS
$ 300
$ 589
$ 175
$ 472
Deflated Nonresidential Construction
Deflated Total State Revenue
$ 50
J
A
S
O
N
D
$ 355
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
MILLIONS
Construction
Residential 2 Non-residential 1 Deflated non-res 1
2003: Q3
8,754
Q4
8,593
2004: Q1
8,515
Q2
8,087
Q3
9,067
Q4
9,865
2005: Q1
8,080
2005: Apr
7,620
May
9,393
Jun
8,285
1 Data rounded 2 Household units 3 Includes limited liability companies
$476,499,000 362,503,000 471,027,000 502,442,000 485,288,000 500,660,000 383,588,000 612,334,000 586,371,000 619,200,000
$364,481,600 271,334,600 345,581,100 358,631,000 341,271,400 348,083,400 266,257,300 425,527,400 404,952,300 425,274,700
8 Economic Indicators / Second Quarter 2005
New Business Corporations 3
5,601 6,158 5,463 6,075 6,314 5,936 6,099 5,923 8,052 6,505
Total State
Revenue 1 Deflated Rev. 1
$1,080,440,000 1,121,440,000 1,092,800,000 1,151,320,000 1,238,600,000 1,255,900,000 1,143,840,000 1,432,050,000 1,190,040,000 1,191,810,000
$585,392,800 607,497,300 586,685,800 609,379,000 653,270,000 658,458,600 595,956,900 735,894,100 612,160,500 612,755,800
Georgia Department of Labor
CCoonsnusmuemr PerircePInrdiecxefoIrnAdtleanxtafor Atlanta
Chart is not seasonally adjusted
YEAR
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Rate *
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
159.5 161.9 167.4 175.3 176.1 180.7 180.7 185.3
160.8 164.0 169.8 176.6 178.6 182.1 182.3 188.0
119.1 124.9 130.8 135.5 138.6 142.2 146.7 150.3 154.7 158.3 162.0 164.8 170.9 177.8 179.1 181.5 185.7 189.6
161.9 165.9 172.1 176.9 179.7 181.7 184.1
162.0 166.5 171.9 176.7 179.4 180.1 183.9
121.7 127.3 132.6 136.2 138.5 144.7 146.7 151.5 157.2 159.5 161.6 167.0 171.9 174.8 177.3 179.0 183.2
3.3% 4.7% 4.4% 3.2% 1.9% 3.5% 2.3% 2.9% 3.4% 1.9% 1.4% 3.3% 2.9% 1.7% 1.4% 1.0% 2.3%
* Rate computed from December to December
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics @ www.bls.gov
Inflation Hits the Metro Area
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) for Atlanta increased 0.9 percent over the two months ending in June to a level of 189.6 (198284=100), not seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. For the 12 months ending in June 2005, the CPI-U for Atlanta increased 2.1 percent.
Over the two months, higher costs for housing were partially offset by lower apparel and transportation costs. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U for Atlanta increased 0.2 percent in the May-June pricing period.
Housing costs in the Atlanta area moved up 2.6 percent in the
May-June pricing period. Shelter costs increased 1.2 percent, while costs for fuel and utilities rose 11.9 percent, reflecting a 36.5 percent growth in the costs of electricity. Costs for household furnishings and operations declined 1.4 percent over the two months. Over the past year, housing costs have increased 1.1 percent as costs for shelter rose 0.4 percent and fuel and utilities costs increased 5.1 percent. The index for household furnishings and operations declined 0.8 percent over the year.
Apparel costs dropped 8.0 percent over the previous two months. The most recent decline caused the index to decline 1.8 percent since June 2004.
The transportation index dropped 0.7 percent in June as costs for motor
fuel declined 3.2 percent. Over the past year, the transportation index has risen 5.0 percent reflecting a 10.1 percent increase in the cost of motor fuel.
The index for medical care inched down 0.1 percent over the past two months. With the most recent decline, the medical care index has risen 7.0 percent since June 2004.
Georgia Department of Labor
Economic Indicators / Second Quarter 2005 9
Metro Atlanta Index of Economic Indicators
200.0
Leading indicators Coincident indicators
180.0
160.0
140.0
120.0
1995-96 = 100
100.0
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
'06
Lead Indicator Extends Growth Prospects
Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted.
***
Atlanta's economic indicators pointed upward in the second quarter and provided a little better view into the economic window of the future. After a barrage of mixed economic weather reports, things are starting to look a lot clearer.
The Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) has certainly benefited from the advancements made in housing and commercial developments. Gains made in the LEI surged ahead for three straight months to 190.9, up 2.3% during the quarter, reversing the first quarters decline, but falling short of the 2.9% posted last year in Q2.
Construction in the residential sector continues to gain momentum. Subdivisions are starting to dot the metro area like mushrooms after a heavy rain. One might wonder how long will this boom last, for all good things are sure to come to an end.
Atlanta's moderate housing costs are certainly a draw to outside residents being priced out of their current housing market.
Residential construction housing permits declined in April before rebounding in May (up 37.3%) and then contracting again in June. Commercial construction seems to have turned the corner with a sharp increase at the start of the quarter. Initial unemployment claims are running a little higher than the previous quarter. More people are also entering the workforce, which is a normal seasonal occurrence at this time of the year. The manufacturing workweek drifted lower over the quarter.
The Coincident Economic Indicator (CEI) advanced at a slower rate over the reporting period, but managed to post consecutive gains.
The index posted a quarterly growth rate of 0.8%, about half of the advance made in the previous quarter and less then the 1.4% posted in the second quarter of last year.
The metro area's higher jobless rate and flat retail employment kept the index advances to a minimum.
Overall the Leading Economic Indicator continues to show strength, which will most likely continue over the next two quarters. The growth of the coincident economic indicator has slowed over the quarter, but things should pickup as the summer comes to a close, companies will start to rebuild inventory and retailers will ramp up hiring for the holidays.
10 Economic Indicators / Second Quarter 2005
Georgia Department of Labor
Metro Atlanta
Jun-2005
May-2005
Percent Percent
Change Change
May-2005 Apr-2005
to
to
Apr-2005 Jun-2005 May-2005
Nonagricultural Employment
2,264,978
Wholesale Employment
153,596
Retail Employment
239,881
Accommodation and Food Services Employment
188,585
Manufacturing Employment
173,141
Government Employment
303,398
Construction Employment
124,989
Trans., Warehousing and Utilities Employment
117,932
Financial Activities Employment
153,767
Professional and Business Services Employment
372,868
Hospital Services Employment
60,126
Social Assistance Employment
25,979
Manufacturing Workweek
37.1
Manufacturing Earnings
$602.41
Deflated Manufacturing Earnings
$309.72
Initial Unemployment Claims
11,297
Continued Unemployment Claims
126,335
Total Unemployment Rate ( not seasonally adjusted )
5.6
Insured Unemployment Rate
1.41%
MARTA Passengers
5,625,000
Cobb County Transit Passengers
249,339
Residential Construction (household units)
5,478
Nonresidential Construction (value)
$443,308,000
Deflated Nonresidential Construction
$304,500,000
Hotel Occupancy
64.5%
Average Hotel Room Rates
$102.12
Deflated Average Hotel Room Rate
$52.50
Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate
5.73%
Average 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate
5.17%
Average One-Year Adjustable Mortgage Rate
4.24%
2,273,622 154,192 240,350 188,735 173,551 307,941 124,873 118,381 153,297 373,775 59,959 26,222 36.7 $594.85 $305.99 12,963 142,985 5.0 1.37%
5,205,000 222,230 6,496
$405,585,000 $280,100,000
64.0% $105.23 $54.13
5.83% 5.28% 4.16%
2,277,951 -0.38% -0.19%
154,464 -0.39% -0.18%
239,347 -0.20% 0.42%
190,152 -0.08% -0.75%
174,229 -0.24% -0.39%
310,932 -1.48% -0.96%
124,781 0.09% 0.07%
118,066 -0.38% 0.27%
152,327 0.31% 0.64%
375,998 -0.24% -0.59%
59,504 0.28% 0.77%
26,155 -0.93% 0.26%
37.4 1.06% -1.79%
$601.83 1.27% -1.16%
$309.26 1.22% -1.06%
11,110 -12.85% 16.68%
109,146 -11.65% 31.00%
4.7
-
-
1.33%
-
-
5,743,000 8.07% -9.37%
236,301 12.20% -5.95%
4,728 -15.67% 37.39%
$506,024,000 9.30% -19.85%
$351,600,000 8.71% -20.34%
69.6%
-
-
$102.12 -2.96% 3.05%
$52.47 -3.01% 3.16%
5.98%
-
-
5.41%
-
-
4.27%
-
-
Georgia Department of Labor
Economic Indicators / Second Quarter 2005 11
MILLIONS
THOUSANDS
Metro Atlanta
2. 34 2. 30
2003-2004 2004-2005
2. 27
2. 23
2. 20
Nonagricultural Employment
2. 16
165
160
THOUSANDS
300 2003-2004 2004-2005
250
200
150
100
Accommodation and Food Services
50
220
200
THOUSANDS
155
180
150
145
Wholesale Employment
140 270
260
250
160
140
Manufacturing Employment
120 330
320
310
THOUSANDS
240
300
230
Retail Employment
220
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
290
Government Employment
280
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
Period
2003 :Q3 Q4
2004 :Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2005 :Q1 2005 Apr
May Jun
Nonag
2,237,391 2,243,160 2,254,691 2,259,203 2,274,035 2,272,344 2,275,169 2,277,951 2,273,622 2,264,978
Wholesale
150,917 151,065 150,554 151,394 153,823 154,292 154,459 154,464 154,192 153,596
Employment
Retail
Accom. & Food Services
249,995 248,795 247,236 246,380 247,220 243,037 239,236 239,347 240,350 239,881
182,306 184,296 185,485 186,556 186,328 187,087 188,013 190,152 188,735 188,585
Manufacturing
177,806 176,986 177,835 177,857 176,922 174,927 174,174 174,229 173,551 173,141
Government
296,627 297,469 303,507 299,891 305,498 307,727 310,392 310,932 307,941 303,398
THOUSANDS
12 Economic Indicators / Second Quarter 2005
Georgia Department of Labor
THOUSANDS
THOUSANDS
Metro Atlanta
138 2003-2004 2004-2005
132
126
120
114
Construction Employment
108
140
130
120
110
100
Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Employment
90 163
159
THOUSANDS
THOUSANDS
420 2003-2004 2004-2005
400
380
360
340
Professional and Business Services Employment
320
80
70
60
50
40
Hospital Services Employment
30
40
35
155
30
THOUSANDS
151
25
147
Financial Activities Employment
20
Social Assistance Employment
143
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
15
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
Period
2003 :Q3 Q4
2004 :Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2005 :Q1 2005 Apr
May Jun
Construction
120,868 123,082 125,076 124,381 125,193 124,718 125,754 124,781 124,873 124,989
Trans, Ware & Utilities
116,895 116,637 119,201 119,400 119,016 119,182 119,883 118,066 118,381 117,932
Employment
Financial Activities
Professional & Business Services
152,364 150,754 150,501 151,369 152,373 153,238 152,645 152,327 153,297 153,767
359,423 363,675 364,933 368,159 372,896 374,397 375,818 375,998 373,775 372,868
Hospital Services
57,957 58,199 58,818 58,535 59,065 59,333 59,989 59,504 59,959 60,126
Social Assistance
26,618 25,947 26,261 25,751 26,582 26,206 26,331 26,155 26,222 25,979
THOUSANDS
Georgia Department of Labor
Economic Indicators / Second Quarter 2005 13
HOURS
DOLLARS
Metro Atlanta
41. 0
39. 0
2003-2004 2004-2005
37. 0
35. 0
33. 0
Manufacturing Workweek
31. 0
$ 670
$ 630
$ 590
THOUSANDS
25. 0 20. 0
2003-2004 2004-2005
15. 0
10. 0
5. 0
Initial Unemployment Claims
0. 0
275
225 175
THOUSANDS
$ 550
$ 510
Manufacturing Earnings
$ 470
$ 420
125
75
Continued Unemployment Claims
25
7.0
$ 380
$ 340
$ 300
$ 260
Deflated Manufacturing Earnings
$ 220
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
PERCENTAGES
6.0
5.0
4.0
Unemployment Rate
3.0
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
DOLLARS
Manufacturing
Period
Avg. Work Week
Weekly Earnings
2003 :Q3
34.3
$539.20
Q4
34.8
530.90
2004 :Q1
35.4
559.42
Q2
35.9
589.50
Q3
35.6
575.64
Q4
38.0
583.36
2005 :Q1
38.6
573.15
2005 Apr
37.4
601.83
May
36.7
594.85
Jun
37.1
602.41
1 Rate at the end of each quarter, except for monthly rates. * Unemployment rate prior to seasonal adjustments.
14 Economic Indicators / Second Quarter 2005
Deflated Wkly Earnings
$292.22 287.60 300.32 312.00 303.61 305.84 298.67 309.26 305.99 309.72
Initial Claims
13,186 11,560 11,525 11,658 11,033 11,042 9,953 11,110 12,963 11,297
Unemployment
Continued Claims
161,618 146,319 126,715 140,060 126,179 120,799 113,429 109,146 142,985 126,335
Rate 1*
4.8% 4.1% 4.6% 5.2% 4.7% 4.8% 4.9% 4.7% 5.0% 5.6%
Georgia Department of Labor
PERCENTAGES
MILLIONS
Metro Atlanta
2.5 2003-2004 2004-2005
2.1
1.7
1.3
0.9
Insured Unemployment Rate
0.5
6. 5
6. 0
5. 5
5. 0
4. 5
MARTA Passengers
4. 0 270
MILLIONS
HOUSEHOLD UNITS ( THOUSANDS )
$9 2003-2004 2004-2005
$8
$7
$6
$5
Residential Construction
$4
$ 750
$ 600
$ 450
$ 300
$ 150
Nonresidential Construction
$0
$ 510
250
$ 410
230
$ 310
MILLIONS
210
$ 210
190
Cobb Community Transit Passengers
$ 110
Deflated Nonresidential Construction
170
$ 10
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
THOUSANDS
Period
Insured Unemployment
Rate 2
Transit Passengers
MARTA 1
Cobb Community
2003 :Q3
1.75%
5,506,000
202,328
Q4
1.54%
5,577,700
217,738
2004 :Q1
1.47%
5,538,100
216,195
Q2
1.53%
5,618,800
212,866
Q3
1.40%
5,215,200
222,526
Q4
1.28%
5,333,100
244,547
2005 :Q1
1.27%
5,380,700
244,542
2005 Apr
1.33%
5,743,400
236,301
May
1.37%
5,204,600
222,230
Jun
1.41%
5,625,300
1 Data rounded 2 Rate at the end of each quarter, except for monthly rates. 3 Household units
249,339
Georgia Department of Labor
Residential 3
6,149 5,992 5,843 5,370 6,364 7,313 5,615 4,728 6,496 5,478
Construction
Nonresidential 1
$290,529,000 186,460,000 303,366,000 299,017,000 311,217,000 299,137,000 189,978,000 506,024,000 405,585,000 443,308,000
Deflated Non-res1
$222,133,000 139,533,000 222,767,000 213,133,000 219,000,000 207,833,000 131,900,000 351,600,000 280,100,000 304,500,000
Economic Indicators / Second Quarter 2005 15
PERCENTAGES
DOLLARS
Metro Atlanta
75 2003-2004 2004-2005
70
7. 60 7. 00
2003-2004 2004-2005
PERCENTAGES
65
6. 40
60
5. 80
55
Hotel Occupancy
50 $ 120
$ 110
$ 100
$ 90
$ 80
Average Hotel Room Rates
$ 70 $ 65
PERCENTAGES
5. 20
Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
4. 60 7. 10
6. 48
5. 86
5. 24
4. 62
Average 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
4. 00 7. 41
$ 60
6. 21
PERCENTAGES
$ 55
5. 01
$ 50
3. 81
$ 45
2. 61
Deflated Average Hotel Room Rates
Average One-Year Adjustable Mortgage Rates
$ 40
1. 41
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
DOLLARS
Hotel Data
Period
Occupancy % 3
Room Rates 3
Deflated Room Rates 3
2003 :Q3
63.4%
$92.57
$50.16
Q4
61.8%
93.24
50.51
2004 :Q1
65.1%
93.48
50.18
Q2
61.9%
94.90
50.23
Q3
64.7%
95.13
50.17
Q4
64.9%
101.89
53.42
2005 :Q1
67.4%
95.78
49.91
2005 Apr
69.6%
102.12
52.47
May
64.0%
105.23
54.13
Jun
64.5%
102.12
52.50
1 Rate does not include points 2 Mortgage rates are not seasonally adjusted
3 Hotel data compiled after July 2003 is not comparable to prior time periods.
16 Economic Indicators / Second Quarter 2005
3 0 - Ye a r Fixed 1,2
6.20% 5.91% 5.47% 6.35% 5.83% 5.80% 5.99% 5.98% 5.83% 5.73%
Mortgage Rates
1 5 - Ye a r Fixed 1,2
O n e - Ye a r Rate Adjustable1,2
5.47% 5.24% 4.78% 4.77% 5.30% 5.20% 5.43% 5.41% 5.28% 5.17%
3.66% 3.57% 3.07% 4.11% 3.77% 4.10% 4.34% 4.27% 4.16% 4.24%
Georgia Department of Labor
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