Georgia-Atlanta economic indicators. Quarterly report, Vol. 10, no. 3 (Third quarter 2004)

Economic

Indicators

A Quarterly Report of Georgia and Metro Atlanta Labor Market and Economic Trends

Third Quarter 2004

Volume 10, Issue 3

Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner

Georgia-Atlanta Economic Indicators
Quarterly Report Third Quarter - 2004
Volume 10, Issue 3

Cover art: Valdosta State College, Valdosta, Georgia by Huey J. Theus
Georgia Economic Indicators, Quarterly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 232-3875.
Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us

Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner

Equal Opportunity Employer/Programs - Auxiliary Aids and Services Available Upon Request to Individuals With Disabilities

Georgia Department of Labor

Economic Indicators / Third Quarter 2004

Contents
History ............................................................................................................................................................ 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................. 2 U.S. Consumer Price Index ......................................................................................................................... 3 Georgia Index of Economic Indicators ...................................................................................................... 4 Georgia Data Summary ................................................................................................................................ 5
Employment, Manufacturing Wages and Hours .................................................................................... 6 Nonagricultural, Retail, Manufacturing,Workweek, Earnings and Deflated Earnings
Job Openings, Unemployment Data and Vehicle Sales ........................................................................ 7 Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Initial/ Continued Unemployment Claims, Unemployment Rate, Insured Unemployment Rate and New Motor Vehicle Sales
Construction, New Business and State Revenue ................................................................................... 8 Residential/ Nonresidential Construction, Deflated Nonresidential Construction, New Business Corporations, Total/ Deflated State Revenue
Consumer Price Index for Atlanta .............................................................................................................. 9 Metro Atlanta Index of Economic Indicators ........................................................................................... 10 Atlanta Data Summary ................................................................................................................................ 11
Employment Data ......................................................................................................................................... 12 Nonagricultural, Wholesale, (Retail Accommodation and Food Services), Manufacturing and Government
Employment Data - Continued ..................................................................................................................... 13 Construction, (Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities), Financial Activities, Professional and Business Services, Hospital Services and Social Assistance
Manufacturing Workweek, Earnings and Unemployment Data .......................................................... 14 Manufacturing -(Workweek, Earnings and Deflated Earnings), Initial/ Continued Unemployment Claims and Unemployment Rates
Unemployment Data, Transit and Construction Data ............................................................................ 15 Insured Unemployment Rate, MARTA Passengers, Cobb Community Transit Passengers, Residential/ Nonresidential Construction and Deflated Nonresidential Construction
Hotel and Mortgage Rates ......................................................................................................................... 16 Hotel Occupancy, Average Hotel Room Rates, Deflated Average Hotel Room Rates, Average 30-Year/ 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates and Average One-Year Adjustable Mortgage Rates

History
In 1906, a group of local legislators and concerned civic leaders helped to pass legislation to establish a college in Valdosta, which was named the South Georgia State Normal College. Valdosta is located close to the Florida state line, midway between the coast and Alabama. Although the college was founded in 1906, no funds were appropriated for it until 1911. The first president the trustees hired for the school was Richard Powell (1913-33), who was state superintendent of rural schools in Georgia. His travels in the West led him to choose the Spanish Mission style of architecture for the institution's buildings, a style that has been maintained throughout the years.
The school opened as South Georgia State Normal College in January 1913. In 1922 the school became a four-year college, and the legislature changed the name to Georgia State Woman's College (GSWC). During the tenure of GSWC president Frank Reade (1935-48), the school expanded physically from three to seven buildings. During World War II, GSWC emphasized politics and science in its curriculum, and in 1943 the Bachelor of Science degree was added.
Soon after Reade's retirement and his replacement by Ralph Thaxton (1948-66), the board of Regents declared that in 1950, GSWC was to become a coeducational institution and would be renamed Valdosta State College. The focus of the school broadened as well. Programs in premedical, predentisty, and prepharmacy education were added, and the sciences became more prominent. Business became a popular major after 1950, and the education department began expanding its secondary offerings. The college's tradition of attracting students from south Georgia continued. During Thaxton's tenure, the college integrated peacefully in 1963. Over the next decade the college added African American students, faculty, and administrators, and Valdosta State continues to promote diversity and actively recruit minorities in all areas of campus life.
Thaxton's successor, S. Martin (1966-78), presided over a time of physical expansion of the school. The student body grew, the Division of Nursing (now the College of Nursing) was established, and many programs expanded, including those in graduate education. When Martin retired in 1978, Hugh Bailey (1978-2001) assumed the post. Under Bailey, the school doubled in size and numerous programs were added and existing courses upgraded. Throughout the 1980s, the college established off-campus sites across Georgia and began receiving state and federal grant funds to develop curricula and programs.
In 1993, the college became Valdosta State University (VSU), the second regional university in the University System of Georgia. VSU consists of five colleges, a graduate school, and two divisions (aerospace programs and social work). In 2001, Hugh Bailey retired as president of VSU. He was succeeded by Ronald Zaccari. Zaccari's administration began by focusing on strategic planning to strengthen the university in the twenty-first century. In 2003, VSU offered a total of fifty undergraduate majors, twenty-three masters degrees, nine educational specialists degrees, and doctorates in education. Despite the impressive growth of recent years, the school remains grounded in a concern for students' development and in meeting the educational needs of south Georgia.
Source: www.georgiaencyclopedia.org

Introduction

G eorgia Economic Indicators, Quarterly Report, is designed to provide data on a number of indicators used
to measure movement of the state's economy in a single publication.
Our publication has changed.
The Georgia and Metropolitan Altanta Economic Indicator series, previously published as two separate monthly publications, are now published as a single quarterly publication. Graphs will continue to display data on monthly increments; whereas, companion data tables will display the 3-month average for each series (for 7 quarters) before alternating to a monthly format for the most recent quarter.
All data except those contained in the U.S. and Atlanta Consumer Price Index chart on Pages 3 and 9 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data that have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars.
Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually.
Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning the GeorgiaAtlanta Economic Indicators, Quarterly Report and Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Bill Webb, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 232-3875.
Note: Seasonal factors updated March 2004
Data Sources
Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Manufacturing Workweek and Employment data. -- Georgia Department of Labor
Consumer Price Index -- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, adapted from commentary by Michael Wald New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group MARTA Passengers -- Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit System CCT Passengers -- Cobb Community Transit System Hotel Occupancy and Room Rates -- PKF Consulting, Atlanta, GA (as of July 2003) Mortgage Rates -- HSH Associates, Financial Publishers, Butler, NJ
* Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center

2 Economic Indicators / Third Quarter 2004

Georgia Department of Labor

Consumer Price Index

Chart is not seasonally adjusted

YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR

1991

134.6

134.8

135.0

135.2

1992

138.1

138.6

139.3

139.5

1993

142.6

143.1

143.6

144.0

1994

146.2

146.7

147.2

147.4

1995

150.3

150.9

151.4

151.9

1996

154.4

154.9

155.7

156.3

1997

159.1

159.6

160.0

160.2

1998

161.6

161.9

162.2

162.5

1999

164.3

164.5

165.0

166.2

2000

168.7

169.7

171.1

171.2

2001

175.1

175.8

176.2

176.9

2002

177.1

177.8

178.8

179.8

2003

181.7

183.1

184.2

183.8

2004

185.2

186.2

187.4

188.0

* Annual rate computed from December to December

MAY
135.6 139.7 144.2 147.5 152.2 156.6 160.1 162.8 166.2 171.3 177.7 179.8 183.5 189.1

JUN
136.0 140.2 144.4 148.0 152.5 156.7 160.3 163.0 166.2 172.3 178.0 179.9 183.7 189.7

JUL
136.2 140.5 144.4 148.4 152.5 157.0 160.5 163.2 166.7 172.6 177.5 180.1 183.9 189.4

AUG
136.6 140.9 144.8 149.0 152.9 157.3 160.8 163.4 167.1 172.8 177.5 180.7 184.6 189.5

SEP
137.2 141.3 145.1 149.4 153.2 157.8 161.2 163.6 167.9 173.7 178.3 181.0 185.2 189.9

OCT
137.4 141.9 145.7 149.5 153.7 158.3 161.6 164.0 168.2 174.0 177.7 181.3 185.0

NOV
137.8 142.0 145.8 149.7 153.6 158.6 161.5 164.0 168.3 174.1 177.4 181.3 184.5

DEC
137.9 141.9 145.8 149.7 153.5 158.6 161.3 163.9 168.3 174.0 176.7 180.9 184.3

ANN AVG
136.2 140.3 144.5 148.2 152.4 156.9 160.5 163.0 166.6 172.1 177.1 179.9 184.0

* CPI RATE
3.1% 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 3.3% 1.7% 1.6% 2.7% 3.4% 1.6% 2.4% 1.9%

Source: U.S. Bureau Of Labor Statistics @www.bls.gov

CPI Captures Increase in Energy Costs

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in September, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. The September level of 189.9 (198284=100) was 2.5 percent higher than in September 2003.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U increased 0.2 percent in September, following a 0.1 percent increase in August. Energy costs, declined for the third consecutive month (down 0.4 percent in September) after advancing sharply in the first half of the year.
The CPI-U excluding food and energy advanced at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 1.8 percent in the third quarter, following increases at rates of 2.9 and 2.3 percent in the first two quarters of 2004. The advance at a 2.3 percent SAAR for the first nine months of 2004 compares with a 1.1 percent rise in all of 2003.

The index for housing rose 0.2 percent in September, the same as in each of the preceding two months. Shelter costs, which increased 0.1 percent in August, advanced 0.4 percent in September. The index for fuels and utilities fell 0.5 percent in September. The index for fuel oil rose 2.1 percent in September and was 29.0 percent higher than a year earlier. The index for electricity was unchanged, while the index for natural gas decreased 3.1 percent.
The transportation index rose 0.2 percent in September, following declines in each of the preceding two months. The index for gasoline, which declined in July and August, increased 0.1 percent in September. The cost for new vehicles declined 0.2 percent in September. New vehicle prices are 1.1 percent lower than in September 2003. The index for public transportation decreased 1.1 percent, reflecting a 1.6 percent decline in airline fares.
The index for apparel, which declined in each of the preceding two

months, was unchanged in September.
Medical care costs rose 0.3 percent in September to a level 4.4 percent higher than a year ago. The index for medical care commodities increased 0.4 percent. The index for medical care services rose 0.3 percent in September. Charges for professional services and for hospital and related services increased 0.1 and 0.6 percent, respectively.

Following is the formula for figuring

Consumer Price Index changes

from one point in time to another.

Index point change

CPI

112.5

Less previous index

108.5

Equals index point change 4.0

Percentage change

Index point difference

4.0

Divide by the previous index 108.5

Equals

0.037

Results multiplied by 100 0.037x100

Equals percent change

3.7%

Georgia Department of Labor

Economic Indicators / Third Quarter 2004 3

Georgia Index of Economic Indicators
208
Leading indicators Coincident indicators
181

154

128

101
1990 = 100

74 1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Momentum Moves into Low Gear

Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted.
*** The Georgia Department of Labor's Leading Economic Indicator (LEI), which reflects activity that will impact the economy in the future (3 to 6 months), made moderate advances during the third quarter. The index increased two out of the three months during the reporting period. The LEI increased in June (186.7, +0.8%), then slipped in August (186.3,-0.2%) before recovering in September (186.9, +0.3%). The index increased +0.9 percent increase during the third quarter, falling short of the +2.6 percent increased posted in the second quarter. Significant decline in initial jobless claims (-20.9% in July) assisted in elevating the index. Building permits for new homes continued to advance.

Commercial construction took a dip in August (-26.6%) while jobless claims increased (+19.3%), placing downward pressure on the index. Sales of new motor vehicles contracted in July (-6.9%) before gaining ground in August (+0.7%) and September (+1.3%).
The Coincident Economic Indicator (CEI), which measures current conditions, registered mediocre increases during the third quarter. The CEI mirrored the gyrations of LEI, but with more compressed gains and losses. In July the index moved ahead (176.9,+0.6%) before giving most of those gains back in August (175.9, -0.6%). However, the CEI turned around in September (+0.7%),

raising the index to 177.2. The index registered a gain of 0.8 percent in the third quarter, whcih was in the same proximity of the advance made in the second quarter.
State revenues (deflated) surged in August, up +31.1 percent from July's figures. Retail employment remained subdued in July and August before recovering slightly in September.
It appears the state's economy is moving through a soft patch, similar to the explanation provided to congress by Alan Greenspan, Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Momentum may have slowed a bit but the economy continues to move forward.

4 Economic Indicators / Third Quarter 2004

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia
Nonagricultural Employment change from previous month
Retail Employment change from previous month
Manufacturing Employment change from previous month
Manufacturing Workweek (hours) change from previous month
Weekly Manufacturing Earnings change from previous month
Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled change from previous month
Initial Unemployment Claims change from previous month
Continued Unemployment Claims change from previous month
Unemployment rate (not seasonally adjusted) change from previous month
Insured Unemployment Rate change from previous month
New Motor Vehicle Sales change from previous month
Residential Construction ( building permits ) change from previous month
Nonresidential Construction ( dollar value ) change from previous month
New Business Corporations change from previous month
Total State Revenues ( in millions ) change from previous month
Deflated State Revenues ( in millions ) change from previous month
Georgia Department of Labor

Sept 2004 3,898,719 0.14%
440,331 0.19%
445,436 -0.33%
38.4 -1.50%
$614.46 0.49%
15,921 7.70%
38,105 -7.97%
216,471 -27.26%
4.2% - -
1.54% - -
45,635 1.34%
9,518 7.59%
$423,228,622 -4.31%
6,074 -2.73%
$1,323,988,158 -2.69%
$697,938,900 -3.00%

Aug 2004 3,893,329 -0.02%
439,480 -0.09%
446,892 -0.42%
38.9 0.21%
$611.46 0.78%
14,782 2.56%
41,405 19.32%
297,586 35.12%
4.3% - -
1.58% - -
45,031 0.79%
8,847 0.11%
$442,297,539 -26.63%
6,244 -5.72%
$1,360,584,259 31.94%
$719,502,900 31.17%

July 2004 3,893,996 0.23%
439,870 -0.02%
448,755 0.22%
38.9 -1.56%
$606.74 0.06%
14,413 -0.30%
34,702 -20.91%
220,235 -29.67%
4.4% - -
1.48% - -
44,678 -6.93%
8,837 15.39%
$602,816,364 3.41%
6,623 3.05%
$1,031,229,348 -2.48%
$548,526,600 -2.79%

Economic Indicators / Third Quarter 2004 5

MILLIONS

THOUSANDS

GEORGIA
3. 95
2002-2003 2003-2004
3. 91

44. 2 42. 7

2002-2003 2003-2004

3. 87

41. 3

HOURS

3. 83

39. 8

3. 79
Nonagricultural Employment
3. 75
500
480
460

38. 4 36. 9 $ 650 $ 620 $ 590

Manufacturing Workweek

DOLLARS

440

$ 560

420
Retail Employment
400
510

$ 530
Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings
$ 500
$ 340

490

$ 325

470

$ 310

DOLLARS

450

$ 295

430

$ 280

Manufacturing Employment

Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings

410

$ 265

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

Employment

2002: Q4 2003: Q1
Q2 Q3 Q4 2004: Q1 Q2 Jul Aug Sep

Nonag
3,863,809 3,866,128 3,846,268 3,861,261 3,867,909 3,886,512 3,887,497 3,893,996 3,893,329 3,898,719

Retail
447,650 445,182 444,670 445,490 438,924 438,980 439,950 439,870 439,480 440,331

Mfg.
460,456 461,090 453,198 445,885 446,520 451,947 449,425 448,755 446,892 445,436

All graphs contain monthly data and are seasonally adjusted, except where noted.

Manufacturing

Avg. Work Week

Weekly Earnings

40.6

$557.99

40.6

565.18

40.4

571.81

39.2

548.95

38.9

554.68

39.3

572.31

39.2

607.67

38.9

606.74

38.9

611.46

38.4

614.46

Deflated Wkly Earnings
$308.00 308.83 311.33 297.45 300.48 307.24 321.64 320.35 322.67 323.57

THOUSANDS

6 Economic Indicators / Third Quarter 2004

Georgia Department of Labor

THOUSANDS

THOUSANDS

GEORGIA
19. 7 2002-2003 2003-2004
16. 2
12. 7
9. 2

6. 0 2002-2003 2003-2004
5. 4
4. 8
4. 3

PERCENTAGES

5. 7

3. 7

Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled

2. 2

3. 1

99. 6

3. 26

80. 9

2. 76

PERCENTAGES

62. 1

2. 26

43. 4

1. 76

24. 6

1. 26

Initial Unemployment Claims

5. 9

0. 76

550

60

Unemployment Rate Insured Unemployment Rate

450

53

THOUSANDS

350

47

250

40

150

Continued Unemployment Claims

50

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

34

New Motor Vehicle Sales

27

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

THOUSANDS

2002: Q4 2003: Q1
Q2 Q3 Q4 2004: Q1 Q2 Jul Aug Sep

Job Openings
10,974 11,306 11,771 13,958 14,006 14,722 15,209 14,413 14,782 15,921

Initial Claims
50,810 50,806 55,314 53,114 44,851 41,766 37,971 34,702 41,405 38,105

1 Rate at the end of each quarter, except for monthly rates.

Unemployment

Continued Claims
299,306

Rate 1
4.8%

315,345

5.0%

321,971

5.4%

307,311

4.6%

275,545

4.0%

268,956

3.7%

265,501

4.6%

220,235

4.4%

297,586

4.3%

216,471

4.2%

Insured 1
2.14% 1.98% 2.02% 1.88% 1.73% 1.58% 1.62% 1.48% 1.58% 1.54%

New Motor Vehicle Sales
42,889 42,671 43,318 44,085 43,771 39,821 44,847 44,678 45,031 45,635

Georgia Department of Labor

Economic Indicators / Third Quarter 2004 7

HOUSEHOLD UNITS

MILLIONS

GEORGIA

11, 200 10, 100

2002-2003 2003-2004

9, 000

7, 900

CHARTERS

8, 000 7, 000 6, 000 5, 000

2002-2003 2003-2004

6, 800 5, 700 $ 810 $ 672 $ 534

Residential Construction

4, 000 3, 000 $1,683 $1,466 $1,250

New Business Corporations

MILLIONS

$ 396
$ 258
Nonresidential Construction
$ 120
$ 675

$1,033 $817 $600 $ 940

Total State Revenue

$ 550

$ 823

$ 425

$ 706

MILLIONS

$ 300

$ 589

$ 175

$ 472

Deflated Nonresidential Construction

Deflated Total State Revenue

$ 50

$ 355

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

MILLIONS

Construction Residential 2 Non-residential 1 Deflated non-res 1

2002: Q4

7,982

2003: Q1

7,343

Q2

6,938

Q3

8,754

Q4

8,593

2004: Q1

8,515

Q2

8,087

Jul

8,837

Aug

8,847

Sep

9,518

1 Data rounded

2 Household units 3 Includes limited liability companies

$481,984,000 415,385,000 410,004,000 476,499,000 362,503,000 471,027,000 502,442,000 602,816,000 442,298,000 *423,229,000
*Estimate used

$388,592,300 330,019,900 319,649,700 370,048,400 279,349,900 355,402,700 371,171,100 439,690,700 319,810,600 306,022,400

8 Economic Indicators / Third Quarter 2004

New Business Corporations 3
5,158 4,912 5,749 5,601 6,158 5,463 6,075 6,623 6,244 6,074

Total State Revenue 1 Deflated Rev. 1

$1,076,190,000 1,044,060,000 1,053,930,000 1,080,440,000 1,121,440,000 1,092,800,000 1,151,320,000 1,031,230,000 1,360,580,000 1,323,990,000

$595,897,000 576,298,100 575,918,000 588,261,300 607,607,000 591,982,700 618,103,100 548,526,600 719,502,900 697,938,900

Georgia Department of Labor

Consumer Price Index for the South

Chart is not seasonally adjusted

ANN * CPI YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC AVG RATE

1991 131.4 131.7 131.9 132.1 132.5 132.8 133.0 133.3 133.8 134.1 134.4 134.3 132.9

2.6%

1992 134.4 134.9 135.5 135.9 136.2 136.7 136.8 137.0 137.3 137.8 138.1 137.9 136.5

2.7%

1993 138.4 139.1 139.7 140.2 140.7 140.8 140.9 141.5 141.6 142.2 142.3 142.2 140.8

3.1%

1994 142.5 142.9 143.6 143.8 144.3 144.7 145.0 145.5 145.8 145.9 146.0 146.1 144.7

2.7%

1995 146.7 147.4 148.0 148.4 148.8 149.1 149.2 149.7 149.8 150.5 150.4 150.3 149.0

2.9%

1996 151.1 151.5 152.4 153.2 153.5 154.0 154.0 154.1 154.5 154.9 155.1 155.1 153.6

3.2%

1997 155.7 156.1 156.5 156.7 156.6 157.0 157.0 157.1 157.5 157.8 157.8 157.3 156.9

1.4%

1998 157.6 157.8 158.2 158.5 158.8 159.1 159.3 159.5 159.5 159.8 159.6 159.6 158.9

1.5%

1999 159.9 160.0 160.6 161.5 161.6 161.7 162.2 162.6 163.2 163.6 163.5 163.6 162.0

2.5%

2000 164.0 164.7 166.4 166.6 166.6 167.4 167.9 168.0 168.5 168.5 168.6 168.4 167.2

2.9%

2001 169.3 170.2 170.6 171.4 171.7 172.2 171.6 171.5 172.2 171.7 171.0 170.3 171.1

1.1%

2002 170.6 171.0 172.1 173.1 173.2 173.5 173.6 173.8 174.2 174.9 174.9 174.6 173.3

2.5%

2003 175.1 176.4 177.5 177.4 176.8 177.2 177.3 177.9 178.3 178.1 177.5 177.5 177.3

1.7%

2004 178.2 179.1 180.1 180.9 182.0 182.9 182.6 182.6 182.8

* Annual rate computed from December to December

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics @ www.bls.gov

Housing Keeps CPI for the South in Check

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) for the South increased 0.1 percent in September, not seasonally adjusted, to a level of 182.8 (198284=100), as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U, South increased 0.2 percent in September. Over the past 12 months, prices in the South have risen 2.5 percent due to higher costs for housing and transportation. Energy costs advanced 8.5 percent during the 12 months ending in September. Excluding food and energy costs, the index for all other items has risen 1.6 percent since September 2003.
Housing costs dropped 0.3 percent in September, reflecting a

trend of declining shelter costs during the fall months each year since 1998. Costs for shelter decreased 0.4 percent over the month after advancing 0.1 percent in August. Costs for fuels and utilities decreased 0.4 percent over the month after advancing 0.7 percent in August. Electricity costs fell 0.1 percent, while the cost of utility (piped) gas service decreased 2.9 percent. The index for household furnishings and operations rose 0.3 percent over the month. Since September 2003, housing costs have increased 2.3 percent as costs for shelter increased 2.3 percent, fuels and utilities costs advanced 3.9 percent, and the index for household furnishings and operations rose 0.6 percent.
Apparel costs advanced 4.3 percent in September after recording decreases for four consecutive months. Over the past year, apparel costs decreased 0.9 percent compared with a 3.0 percent

drop in apparel prices recorded during the same time period in 2003.
Transportation costs were unchanged in September after falling 0.6 percent in August. The cost of new vehicles increased 0.2 percent over the month, while costs for used cars and trucks rose 1.9 percent. Motor fuel costs decreased 0.2 percent reflecting a 0.2 percent decrease in the cost of gasoline. Since September 2003, transportation costs have increased 3.0 percent, reflecting a 1.0 percent decline in costs for new and used motor vehicles and a 14.7 percent rise in the costs for motor fuel.
Medical care costs rose 0.3 percent over the month after rising a modest 0.1 percent in August. Over the past year, the medical care index has gained 4.1 percent.

Georgia Department of Labor

Economic Indicators / Third Quarter 2004 9

Metro Atlanta Index of Economic Indicators
200.0
Leading indicators Coincident indicators
180.0

160.0

140.0

120.0
1995-96 = 100

100.0

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

Lower Unemployment Helps Index Move Forward

Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted.

***

Metro Atlanta's Economic Indicators expanded during the third quarter. The Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) posted a respectable +2.2 percent advance in Q3, falling short of the +2.7 percent gain achieved in the second quarter.
The LEI moved forward in July (180.0, +1.4%) before reversing in August (178.7, -0.7%) then advanced in September (181.5, +1.5%). Permits for new homes advanced in July (+47.0%) the only gain posted during the third quarter in residential construction. Initial jobless claims declined (-13.1%) during the month of July before increasing (+7.3%) in August. Continued unemployment claims, which are not included in the index, also declined in July (-35.0%).

Commercial construction (deflated revenue) in-creased in July (+11.6%) before revenue declined in August (-46.8%) and rebounded in September (+44.2%). The manufacturing workweek increased to 37.8 hours during the quarter.
The Coincident Economic Indicator (CEI) pressed forward with three consecutive months of gains. The CEI advanced 2.7 percent during the reporting period, exceeding the second quarter's 1.3 percent gain. The decline in the area's unemployment rate was the indicator's largest contributor. Atlanta's jobless rate fell one-tenth of a percent for three straight months, ending the quarter at 4.3 percent, compared

to the 4.9 percent rate posted in September 2003. Retail employment started the quarter flat before hiring picked up in August and September. The insured unemployment rate hovered in the 1.4% range during the quarter.
Economic stability continues to increase as the economy moves forward. As we enter into the holiday season concerns pertaining to high fuel costs and possible layoffs still remain in the shadows. Any major unexpected event could easily shake the confidence of consumers, which is a major concern for retailers, especially during the busiest shopping season of the year.

10 Economic Indicators / Third Quarter 2004

Georgia Department of Labor

Metro Atlanta

Sep-2004

Aug-2004

Jul-2004

Percent Change Aug-2004
to Sep-2004

Percent Change Jul-2004
to Aug-2004

Nonagricultural Employment

2,184,398

Wholesale Employment

135,620

Retail Employment

243,182

Accommodation and Food Services Employment

185,164

Manufacturing Employment

167,222

Government Employment

294,360

Construction Employment

118,550

Trans., Warehousing and Utilities Employment

115,156

Financial Activities Employment

147,948

Professional and Business Services Employment

345,141

Hospital Services Employment

59,643

Social Assistance Employment

26,981

Manufacturing Workweek

37.8

Manufacturing Earnings

$622.42

Deflated Manufacturing Earnings

$328.11

Initial Unemployment Claims

10,683

Continued Unemployment Claims

122,197

Total Unemployment Rate ( not seasonally adjusted )

4.3

Insured Unemployment Rate

1.40%

MARTA Passengers

5,419,000

Cobb County Transit Passengers

230,319

Residential Construction (household units)

5,796

Nonresidential Construction (value)

$314,221,000

Deflated Nonresidential Construction

$227,200,000

Hotel Occupancy

64.7%

Average Hotel Room Rates

$95.46

Deflated Average Hotel Room Rate

$50.32

Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate

5.83%

Average 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate

5.30%

Average One-Year Adjustable Mortgage Rate

3.77%

2,180,478 135,206 242,170 185,889 168,355 294,593 117,960 114,856 147,359 343,601 59,389 27,359 37.1 $611.38 $323.31 11,607 148,607 4.4 1.39%
5,273,000 213,171 6,040
$217,766,000 $157,500,000
63.9% $95.88 $50.70 5.93% 5.30% 3.99%

2,170,254 135,164 241,941 183,791 168,241 288,535 117,447 115,394 147,068 340,651 58,863 26,756 36.8 $635.66 $338.12 10,809 107,731 4.5 1.42%
4,953,000 224,089 7,255
$406,548,000 $296,500,000
65.6% $94.05 $50.03 6.11% 5.54% 4.07%

0.18% 0.47%

0.31% 0.03%

0.42% 0.09%

-0.39% 1.14%

-0.67% 0.07%

-0.08% 2.10%

0.50% 0.44%

0.26% -0.47%

0.40% 0.20%

0.45% 0.87%

0.43% 0.89%

-1.38% 2.26%

1.82% 0.85%

1.81% -3.82%

1.48% -4.38%

-7.96% 7.38%

-17.77% 37.94%

-

-

-

-

2.77% 6.46%

8.04% -4.87%

-4.04% -16.75%

44.29% -46.44%

44.25% -46.88%

-

-

-0.44% 1.94%

-0.75% 1.35%

-

-

-

-

-

-

Georgia Department of Labor

Economic Indicators / Third Quarter 2004 11

MILLIONS

THOUSANDS

Metro Atlanta

2. 24 2. 20

2002-2003 2003-2004

2. 17

2. 13
2. 10
Nonagricultural Employment
2. 06
150

145

140

135

130
Wholesale Employment
125
270

260

250

240

230

220

O

N

D

Retail Employment

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

THOUSANDS

THOUSANDS

THOUSANDS

300 2002-2003 2003-2004
250
200
150
100
Accommodation and Food Services
50 220
200
180
160
140
Manufacturing Employment
120 310

300

290

280

270

Government Employment

260

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

Period
2002 :Q4 2003 :Q1
Q2 Q3 Q4 2004 :Q1 Q2 Jul Aug Sep

Nonag
2,171,614 2,160,724 2,150,461 2,162,940 2,160,913 2,176,898 2,171,361 2,170,254 2,180,478 2,184,398

Wholesale
140,712 137,432 136,427 136,355 136,152 136,495 135,419 135,164 135,206 135,620

Employment

Retail

Accom. & Food Services

245,580 240,992 241,539 242,916 237,683 240,187 241,858 241,941 242,170 243,182

170,700 174,820 175,425 177,603 181,055 184,638 184,249 183,791 185,889 185,164

Manufacturing
167,589 172,209 171,461 169,390 168,438 170,551 170,211 168,241 168,355 167,222

Government
286,414 289,447 285,599 287,179 289,100 291,849 288,959 288,535 294,593 294,360

THOUSANDS

12 Economic Indicators / Third Quarter 2004

Georgia Department of Labor

THOUSANDS

THOUSANDS

Metro Atlanta
132 2002-2003 2003-2004
126
120
114
108
Construction Employment
102
140
130
120
110
100
Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Employment
90
155

THOUSANDS

THOUSANDS

400 2002-2003 2003-2004
380
360
340
320
Professional and Business Services Employment
300
80
70
60
50
40
Hospital Services Employment
30
40

151

35

147

30

THOUSANDS

143

25

139
Financial Activities Employment

20
Social Assistance Employment

135

15

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

Period
2002 :Q4 2003 :Q1
Q2 Q3 Q4 2004 :Q1 Q2 Jul Aug Sep

Construction
114,879 115,209 113,535 115,036 118,626 120,719 118,649 117,447 117,960 118,550

Trans, Ware & Utilities
116,245 117,127 113,908 113,878 114,204 112,360 116,352 115,394 114,856 115,156

Employment

Financial Activities

Professional & Business Services

148,190 147,888 148,043 149,176 147,114 148,020 147,083 147,068 147,359 147,948

360,186 338,255 334,512 338,906 340,349 343,056 339,469 340,651 343,601 345,141

Hospital Services
56,032 56,879 56,542 57,389 57,867 57,678 58,468 58,863 59,389 59,643

Social Assistance
25,330 25,887 25,616 26,035 26,076 26,767 26,648 26,756 27,359 26,981

THOUSANDS

Georgia Department of Labor

Economic Indicators / Third Quarter 2004 13

HOURS

DOLLARS

Metro Atlanta

43. 0 41. 0

2002-2003 2003-2004

39. 0

37. 0

35. 0
Manufacturing Workweek
33. 0
$ 675

$ 635

$ 595

$ 555

$ 515
Manufacturing Earnings
$ 475
475

THOUSANDS

THOUSANDS

26. 9 21. 9 16. 9 11. 9
6. 9 1. 9 275 225 175 125
75 25 7. 0

2002-2003 2003-2004
Initial Unemployment Claims
Continued Unemployment Claims

420

365

310

255
Deflated Manufacturing Earnings

200

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

PERCENTAGES

6. 0

5. 0

4. 0

Unemployment Rate

3. 0

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

DOLLARS

Period
2002 :Q4 2003 :Q1
Q2 Q3 Q4 2004 :Q1 Q2 Jul Aug Sep

Work Week (hrs)
39.5 40.8 40.3 38.9 39.2 38.3 38.0 36.8 37.1 37.8

Manufacturing
Weekly Earnings
$604.99 568.10 568.80 543.54 560.37 605.62 638.31 635.66 611.38 622.42

Deflated Earnings
$335.00 313.58 310.81 295.94 303.62 328.07 342.69 338.12 323.31 328.11

14 Economic Indicators / Third Quarter 2004

Initial Claims
13,623 13,272 15,564 13,186 11,560 11,525 11,658 10,809 11,607 10,683

Unemployment
Continued Claims
163,621 158,677 178,406 161,618 146,319 126,715 140,060 107,731 148,607 122,197

Rate
4.9% 5.1% 5.6% 4.9% 4.1% 3.8% 4.6% 4.5% 4.4% 4.3%

Georgia Department of Labor

PERCENTAGES

MILLIONS

Metro Atlanta
2. 9 2002-2003 2003-2004
2. 5
2. 1
1. 7
1. 3
Insured Unemployment Rate
0. 9 7. 0
6. 5
6. 0
5. 5

HOUSEHOLD UNITS ( THOUSANDS )

7. 5 2002-2003 2003-2004
6. 6
5. 8
4. 9
4. 1
Residential Construction
3. 2
$ 750
$ 600
$ 450
$ 300

MILLIONS

5. 0
MARTA Passengers
4. 5
250
225

$ 150
Nonresidential Construction
$0
$510
$410

200

$310

MILLIONS

175

$210

150
Cobb Community Transit Passengers

$110
Deflated Nonresidential Construction

125

$10

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

THOUSANDS

Period

Insured Unemployment
Rate 2

Transit Passengers

MARTA 1

Cobb Community

2002 :Q4

1.84%

5,456,900

193,958

2003 :Q1

1.81%

5,476,300

191,127

Q2

1.93%

5,570,400

190,276

Q3

1.75%

5,506,000

202,328

Q4

1.54%

5,577,700

217,738

2004 :Q1

1.47%

5,538,100

216,195

Q2

1.53%

5,618,800

212,866

Jul

1.42%

4,953,100

224,089

Aug

1.39%

5,273,300

213,171

Sep

1.40%

5,419,100

1 Data rounded 2 Rate at the end of each quarter, except for monthly rates.

3 Household units

230,319

Georgia Department of Labor

Residential 3
5,442 4,831 4,623 6,149 5,992 5,843 5,370 7,255 6,040 5,796

Construction
Nonresidential 1
$285,491,000 236,366,000 250,483,000 290,529,000 186,460,000 303,366,000 299,017,000 406,548,000 217,766,000 314,221,000

Deflated Non-res
$225,100,000 182,766,667 193,066,667 222,000,000 139,800,000 224,133,333 215,100,000 287,900,000 153,500,000 221,100,000

Economic Indicators / Third Quarter 2004 15

PERCENTAGES

DOLLARS

Metro Atlanta
75 2002-2003 2003-2004
69
63
56
50
Hotel Occupancy
44
$ 110
$ 100
$ 90
$ 80
$ 70
Average Hotel Room Rates
$ 60 $ 60

PERCENTAGES

PERCENTAGES

7. 60 7. 00 6. 40 5. 80 5. 20 4. 60
7. 10 6. 48 5. 86 5. 24 4. 62 4. 00 7. 41

2002-2003 2003-2004
Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
Average 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates

$ 54

6. 21

PERCENTAGES

$ 48

5. 01

$ 42

3. 81

$ 36
Deflated Average Hotel Room Rates

2. 61
Average One-Year Adjustable Mortgage Rates

$ 30

1. 41

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

DOLLARS

Hotel Data

Period

Occupancy% 3

Room Rates 3

Deflated Room Rates

2002 :Q4

58.2%

$77.10

$42.69

2003 :Q1

56.8%

74.18

40.95

Q2

55.3%

72.16

39.43

Q3

63.4%

92.57

50.40

Q4

61.8%

93.24

50.52

2004 :Q1

65.1%

93.48

50.64

Q2

61.9%

94.90

50.95

Jul

65.6%

94.05

50.03

Aug

63.9%

95.88

50.70

Sep

64.7%

95.46

50.32

1 Rate does not include points 2 Mortgage rates are not seasonally adjusted
3 Hotel data compiled after July 2003 is not comparable to prior time periods.

16 Economic Indicators / Third Quarter 2004

3 0 - Ye a r Fixed 1
6.00% 5.74% 5.22% 6.20% 5.91% 5.47% 6.35% 6.11% 5.93% 5.83%

Mortgage Rates

1 5 - Ye a r Fixed 1,2

O n e - Ye a r Rate Adjustable1,2

5.40% 5.10% 4.61% 5.47% 5.24% 4.78% 4.77% 5.54% 5.30% 5.30%

3.63% 3.43% 3.18% 3.66% 3.57% 3.07% 4.11% 4.07% 3.99% 3.77%

Georgia Department of Labor

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