Georgia-Atlanta economic indicators. Quarterly report, Vol. 10, no. 2 (Second quarter 2004)

Economic Indicators

A Quarterly Report of Georgia and Metro Atlanta Labor Market and Economic Trends

Second Quarter 2004

Volume 10, Issue 2

Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner

Georgia-Atlanta Economic Indicators
Quarterly Report Second Quarter - 2004
Volume 10, Issue 2

Cover art: Tybee Island Lighthouse, Georgia by Huey J. Theus
Georgia Economic Indicators, Quarterly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 232-3875.
Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us

Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner

Equal Opportunity Employer/Programs - Auxiliary Aids and Services Available Upon Request to Individuals With Disabilities

Georgia Department of Labor

Economic Indicators / Second Quarter 2004

Contents
History ............................................................................................................................................................ 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................. 2 U.S. Consumer Price Index ......................................................................................................................... 3 Georgia Index of Economic Indicators ...................................................................................................... 4 Georgia Data Summary ................................................................................................................................ 5
Employment, Manufacturing Wages and Hours .................................................................................... 6 Nonagricultural, Retail, Manufacturing,Workweek, Earnings and Deflated Earnings
Job Openings, Unemployment Data and Vehicle Sales ........................................................................ 7 Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Initial/ Continued Unemployment Claims, Unemployment Rate, Insured Unemployment Rate and New Motor Vehicle Sales
Construction, New Business and State Revenue ................................................................................... 8 Residential/ Nonresidential Construction, Deflated Nonresidential Construction, New Business Corporations, Total/ Deflated State Revenue
Consumer Price Index for Atlanta .............................................................................................................. 9 Metro Atlanta Index of Economic Indicators ........................................................................................... 10 Atlanta Data Summary ................................................................................................................................ 11
Employment Data ......................................................................................................................................... 12 Nonagricultural, Wholesale, (Retail Accommodation and Food Services), Manufacturing and Government
Employment Data - Continued ..................................................................................................................... 13 Construction, (Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities), Financial Activities, Professional and Business Services, Hospital Services and Social Assistance
Manufacturing Workweek, Earnings and Unemployment Data .......................................................... 14 Manufacturing -(Workweek, Earnings and Deflated Earnings), Initial/ Continued Unemployment Claims and Unemployment Rates
Unemployment Data, Transit and Construction Data ............................................................................ 15 Insured Unemployment Rate, MARTA Passengers, Cobb Community Transit Passengers, Residential/ Nonresidential Construction and Deflated Nonresidential Construction
Hotel and Mortgage Rates ......................................................................................................................... 16 Hotel Occupancy, Average Hotel Room Rates, Deflated Average Hotel Room Rates, Average 30-Year/ 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates and Average One-Year Adjustable Mortgage Rates

History
Originally built in 1733, the Tybee Lighthouse was the tallest lighthouse in America at the time. In 1741, while a new lighthouse was being built, the old one was destroyed in a severe storm. In 1742 the new lighthouse was completed, standing 124 feet high, 94 feet of lighthouse with a flagpole (30 feet high) atop it. In 1768 a new lighthouse began construction as the older house was too close to encroaching waters. Completed in 1773 the lighthouse was 100 feet high, built out of brick and wood. It was partially destroyed by Confederate troops in 1862.
The new and current lighthouse would stand 150 feet tall, made of brick masonry and containing a Fresnel lens (first displayed in 1867). It was part of the First Order of lighthouses. In 1933 the light was converted to electricity. This ended the need for a light keeper. The last lightkeeper, George Jackson, died in 1948. The U.S. Coast Guard maintained the lighthouse until recently when the light was no longer needed for maritime shipping.
Today Tybee Lighthouse is maintained by the Tybee Island Historical Society which maintains the grounds as a museum through a lease with the Coast Guard, which maintains the still-active light. Tybee is very unusual in that all of its support buildings are intact. The site includes a headkeeper's house, two assistant keeper's houses, a summer kitchen, and a fuel storage building. The tower is open for climbing and there is a gift shop. A restoration campaign is currently under way.

Introduction

G eorgia Economic Indicators, Quarterly Report, is designed to provide data on a number of indicators used
to measure movement of the state's economy in a single publication.
Our publication has changed.
The Georgia and Metropolitan Altanta Economic Indicator series, previously published as two separate monthly publications, are now published as a single quarterly publication. Graphs will continue to display data on monthly increments; whereas, companion data tables will display the 3-month average for each series (for 7 quarters) before alternating to a monthly format for the most recent quarter.
All data except those contained in the U.S. and Atlanta Consumer Price Index chart on Pages 3 and 9 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data that have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars.
Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually.
Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning Georgia Economic Indicators, Quarterly Report and Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Bill Webb, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 232-3875.
Note: Seasonal factors updated March 2004
Data Sources
Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Manufacturing Workweek and Employment data. -- Georgia Department of Labor
Consumer Price Index -- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, adapted from commentary by Michael Wald New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group MARTA Passengers -- Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit System CCT Passengers -- Cobb Community Transit System Hotel Occupancy and Room Rates -- PKF Consulting, Atlanta, GA (as of July 2003) Mortgage Rates -- HSH Associates, Financial Publishers, Butler, NJ
* Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center

2 Economic Indicators / Second Quarter 2004

Georgia Department of Labor

Consumer Price Index

Chart is not seasonally adjusted

YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR

1991

134.6

134.8

135.0

135.2

1992

138.1

138.6

139.3

139.5

1993

142.6

143.1

143.6

144.0

1994

146.2

146.7

147.2

147.4

1995

150.3

150.9

151.4

151.9

1996

154.4

154.9

155.7

156.3

1997

159.1

159.6

160.0

160.2

1998

161.6

161.9

162.2

162.5

1999

164.3

164.5

165.0

166.2

2000

168.7

169.7

171.1

171.2

2001

175.1

175.8

176.2

176.9

2002

177.1

177.8

178.8

179.8

2003

181.7

183.1

184.2

183.8

2004

185.2

186.2

187.4

188.0

* Annual rate computed from December to December

MAY
135.6 139.7 144.2 147.5 152.2 156.6 160.1 162.8 166.2 171.3 177.7 179.8 183.5 189.1

JUN
136.0 140.2 144.4 148.0 152.5 156.7 160.3 163.0 166.2 172.3 178.0 179.9 183.7 189.7

JUL
136.2 140.5 144.4 148.4 152.5 157.0 160.5 163.2 166.7 172.6 177.5 180.1 183.9

AUG
136.6 140.9 144.8 149.0 152.9 157.3 160.8 163.4 167.1 172.8 177.5 180.7 184.6

SEP
137.2 141.3 145.1 149.4 153.2 157.8 161.2 163.6 167.9 173.7 178.3 181.0 185.2

OCT
137.4 141.9 145.7 149.5 153.7 158.3 161.6 164.0 168.2 174.0 177.7 181.3 185.0

NOV
137.8 142.0 145.8 149.7 153.6 158.6 161.5 164.0 168.3 174.1 177.4 181.3 184.5

DEC
137.9 141.9 145.8 149.7 153.5 158.6 161.3 163.9 168.3 174.0 176.7 180.9 184.3

ANN AVG
136.2 140.3 144.5 148.2 152.4 156.9 160.5 163.0 166.6 172.1 177.1 179.9 184.0

* CPI RATE
3.1% 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 3.3% 1.7% 1.6% 2.7% 3.4% 1.6% 2.4% 1.9%

Source: U.S. Bureau Of Labor Statistics @www.bls.gov

CPI Cools Off in June

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in June, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. The June level of 189.7 (1982-84=100) was 3.3 percent higher than in June 2003.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U increased 0.3 percent in June, following a 0.6 percent in May. Energy costs, which advanced 4.6 percent in May, rose 2.6 percent in June and accounted for two-thirds of the increase in the overall CPI-U. Within energy, the index for petroleumbased energy increased 3.0 percent and the index for energy services rose 2.1 percent. The index for all items less food and energy, which increased 0.2 percent in May, rose 0.1 percent in June. A deceleration in shelter costs up 0.1 percent in June after increasing 0.2 percent in May - was largely responsible for the smaller June advance. Consumer prices increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 4.8 percent in the second quarter after advancing at a 5.1

percent rate in the first three months of 2004. This brings the year-to-date annual rate to 4.9 percent and compares with an increase of 1.9 percent in all of 2003. The index for energy, which rose 6.9 percent in 2003, accelerated in the first half of 2004 to a 36.0 percent SAAR and accounted for about half of the advance in the overall CPI-U during the first six months of 2004.
The CPI-U excluding food and energy advanced at a 2.3 percent SAAR in the second quarter, following an increase at a 2.9 percent rate in the first three months of 2004. The advance at a 2.6 percent SAAR for the first half of 2004 compares with a 1.1 percent rise in all of 2003.
The index for housing rose 0.3 percent in June, following increases of 0.4 percent in each of the preceding two months. Shelter costs rose 0.1 percent in June. The index for fuels and utilities advanced 1.9 percent, following a 1.1 percent increase in May. The index for household furnishings and operations rose 0.1 percent in June.

The transportation index increased 0.8 percent in June, reflecting a 3.1 percent increase in the index for gasoline. The index for new vehicles increased 0.2 percent in June, but it still is 0.1 percent lower than a year ago. Airline fares, which declined 0.8 percent in May after registering increases in the first four months of 2004, rose 0.7 percent in June.
The index for apparel increased 0.2 percent in June, following a 0.3 percent rise in May. Prior to seasonal adjustment, apparel prices fell 2.7 percent, largely as a result of the seasonal discounting of springsummer wear.
Medical care costs rose 0.3 percent in June to a level 4.6 percent higher than a year ago. The index for medical care commodities increased 0.1 percent. The index for medical care services rose 0.4 percent in June.

Georgia Department of Labor

Economic Indicators / Second Quarter 2004 3

Georgia Index of Economic Indicators
208
Leading indicators Coincident indicators
181

154

128

101
1990 = 100

74 1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Commercial Construction Continues to Expand

Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted.
*** The Georgia Department of Labor's Leading Economic Indicator (LEI), which reflects activity that will impact the economy in the future (3 to 6 months), made solid gains for most of the second quarter. The index accelerated in April (183.9,+ 1.9%) , then slipped in May (183.7,- 0.1%), before closing out the quarter in June ( 185.3,+ 0.8%). Commercial construction captured the lime-light again; however, this time by posting solid consecutive double-digit increases throughout the reporting period. Sales of motor vehicles had strong increases in April and June. Nonresidential construction controlled the index for another quarter; construction was up in April (+13.5%), May (+16.3%) and June

(+17.2%). Sales of new motor vehicles laced with friendly incentives contributed to ending the quarter on the positive side (+18.2 in June). Initial jobless claims declined in April (-18.3%) and May (-5.3%) before increasing in June (+28.8%). Residential construction fluctuated during the quarter, but remain above last year's levels. New business filings started and ended the quarter in positive territory.
The Coincident Economic Indicator (CEI), which measures current conditions, posted minimal consecutive gains during the second quarter. The index increased to 175.7 (+ 0.6%) in April before moving ahead slightly to 175.8 in May then to 176.0 in June (+0.7%).
Modest hiring in the retail sector

(+04% in April and 0.1% in June) along with a solid month of higher state revenue (up 14.2% in April) were the main contributors in moving the index forward during the quarter. Weekly manufacturing hours continued to climb, closing in on 40 hours. Unemployment increased as the school year came to a close reflecting some of the difficulties that younger workers are facing in the job market.
Key developments during the second quarter such as: volatile gas prices, higher interest rates and inflation will weigh heavily on consumers and businesses the reminder of the year.

4 Economic Indicators / Second Quarter 2004

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia
Nonagricultural Employment change from previous month
Retail Employment change from previous month
Manufacturing Employment change from previous month
Manufacturing Workweek (hours) change from previous month
Weekly Manufacturing Earnings change from previous month
Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled change from previous month
Initial Unemployment Claims change from previous month
Continued Unemployment Claims change from previous month
Unemployment rate (not seasonally adjusted) change from previous month
Insured Unemployment Rate change from previous month
New Motor Vehicle Sales change from previous month
Residential Construction ( building permits ) change from previous month
Nonresidential Construction ( dollar value ) change from previous month
New Business Corporations change from previous month
Total State Revenues ( in millions ) change from previous month
Deflated State Revenues ( in millions ) change from previous month
Georgia Department of Labor

June 2004 3,885,103 0.02%
439,958 0.12%
447,750 -0.47%
39.5 0.67%
$606.38 -0.09%
14,457 -7.25%
43,876 28.83%
313,160 26.56%
4.6% - -
1.62% - -
48,004 18.21%
7,659 -12.56%
$582,952,423 17.28%
6,427 35.54%
$1,057,423,693 -8.23%
557,417,000 -8.52%

May 2004 3,884,360 -0.22%
439,448 -0.23%
449,867 -0.18%
39.2 0.53%
$606.94 -0.45%
15,586 0.00%
34,056 -5.36%
247,439 4.89%
3.8% - -
1.61% - -
40,609 -11.58%
8,759 11.68%
$497,050,575 16.32%
4,742 -32.80%
$1,152,275,890 -7.39%
609,349,600 -7.93%

April 2004 3,893,028
- -
440,445 - -
450,659 - -
39.0 - -
$609.68 - -
15,585 - -
35,983 - -
235,906 - -
3.5% - -
1.64% - -
45,926 - -
7,843 - -
$427,323,333 - -
7,056 - -
$1,244,259,596 - -
661,840,400 - -

Economic Indicators / Second Quarter 2004 5

MILLIONS

THOUSANDS

GEORGIA
3. 95 2002-2003 2003-2004
3. 91
3. 87

44. 2 42. 7 41. 3

2002-2003 2003-2004

HOURS

3. 83
3. 79
Nonagricultural Employment
3. 75 500 480 460 440

DOLLARS

39. 8 38. 4 36. 9 $650 $620 $590 $560

Manufacturing Workweek

420
Retail Employment
400
510
490
470

$530
Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings
$500 $340
$325
$310

DOLLARS

450

$295

430

$280

Manufacturing Employment

Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings

410

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

$265

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

Employment

2002: Q3 Q4
2003: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2004: Q1 Apr May Jun

Nonag
3,861,691 3,863,809 3,866,128 3,846,268 3,861,261 3,867,909 3,886,512 3,893,028 3,884,360 3,885,103

Retail
449,569 447,650 445,182 444,670 445,490 438,924 438,980 440,445 439,448 439,958

Mfg.
466,223 460,456 461,090 453,198 445,885 446,520 451,947 450,659 449,867 447,750

All graphs contain monthly data and are seasonally adjusted, except where noted.

Manufacturing

Avg. Work Week

Weekly Earnings

40.6

$536.72

40.6

557.99

40.6

565.18

40.4

571.81

39.2

548.95

38.9

554.68

39.3

572.31

39.0

609.68

39.2

606.94

39.5

606.38

Deflated Wkly Earnings
$297.17 308.00 308.83 311.33 297.45 300.48 307.24 324.30 320.96 319.65

THOUSANDS

6 Economic Indicators / Second Quarter 2004

Georgia Department of Labor

THOUSANDS

THOUSANDS

GEORGIA
19. 7 2002-2003 2003-2004
16. 2
12. 7
9. 2
5. 7
Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled
2. 2
99. 6
80. 9
62. 1
43. 4
24. 6
Initial Unemployment Claims
5. 9
550

PERCENTAGES

PERCENTAGES

6. 0 2002-2003 2003-2004
5. 4
4. 8
4. 3
3. 7
Unemployment Rate
3. 1 3. 26
2. 76
2. 26
1. 76
1. 26
Insured Unemployment Rate
0. 76
60

450

53

THOUSANDS

350

47

250

40

150

Continued Unemployment Claims

50

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

34

New Motor Vehicle Sales

27

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

THOUSANDS

2002: Q3 Q4
2003: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2004: Q1 Apr May Jun

Job Openings
10,116 10,974 11,306 11,771 13,958 14,006 14,722 15,585 15,586 14,457

Initial Claims
45,025 50,810 50,806 55,314 53,114 44,851 41,766 35,983 34,056 43,876

1 Rate at the end of each quarter, except for monthly rates.

Unemployment

Continued Claims
314,548

Rate 1
5.4%

299,306

5.1%

315,345

4.7%

321,971

5.4%

307,311

4.6%

275,545

4.0%

268,956

3.6%

235,906

3.5%

247,439

3.8%

313,160

4.6%

Insured 1
1.94% 2.14% 1.98% 2.02% 1.88% 1.73% 1.58% 1.64% 1.61% 1.62%

New Motor Vehicle Sales
45,782 42,889 42,671 43,318 44,085 43,771 39,821 45,926 40,609 48,004

Georgia Department of Labor

Economic Indicators / Second Quarter 2004 7

HOUSEHOLD UNITS

MILLIONS

GEORGIA

11, 200 10, 100

2002-2003 2003-2004

8, 000 7, 000

2002-2003 2003-2004

CHARTERS

9, 000

6, 000

7, 900

5, 000

6, 800 5, 700 $ 810 $ 672 $ 534 $ 396 $ 258 $ 120

Residential Construction Nonresidential Construction

MILLIONS

4, 000 3, 000 $1,683 $1,466 $1,250 $1,033 $817 $600

New Business Corporations Total State Revenue

$ 675

$ 940

$ 550

$ 823

MILLIONS

$ 425

$ 706

$ 300

$ 589

$ 175
Deflated Nonresidential Construction

$ 472
Deflated Total State Revenue

$ 50

$ 355

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

MILLIONS

Construction Residential 2 Non-residential 1 Deflated non-res 1

2001: Q3

7,815

Q4

7,982

2003: Q1

7,343

Q2

6,938

Q3

8,754

Q4

8,593

2004: Q1

8,515

Apr

7,843

May

8,759

Jun

7,659

1 Data rounded

2 Household units 3 Includes limited liability companies

$426,161,000 481,984,000 415,385,000 410,004,000 476,499,000 362,503,000 471,027,000 427,323,000 497,051,000 582,952,000

$343,585,900 382,932,200 323,844,900 318,408,500 367,196,800 273,518,400 347,963,800 311,687,100 359,400,600 421,512,700

8 Economic Indicators / Second Quarter 2004

New Business Corporations 3
5,274 5,158 4,912 5,749 5,601 6,158 5,463 7,056 4,742 6,427

Total State Revenue 1 Deflated Rev. 1

$1,037,890,000 1,076,190,000 1,044,060,000 1,053,930,000 1,080,440,000 1,121,440,000 1,092,800,000 1,244,260,000 1,152,280,000 1,057,420,000

$574,689,900 594,033,100 570,524,600 573,827,600 585,392,800 607,497,300 586,685,800 661,840,400 609,349,600 557,417,000

Georgia Department of Labor

Consumer Price Index for Atlanta

Chart is not seasonally adjusted

YEAR

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Rate *

1985

107.0

107.6

1986

111.7

111.1

1987 1988 1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

159.5

160.8

1999

161.9

164.0

2000

167.4

169.8

2001

175.3

176.6

2002

176.1

178.6

2003

180.7

182.1

2004

180.7

182.3

* Annual rate computed from December to December

108.8 112.2 115.5 119.1 124.9 130.8 135.5 138.6 142.2 146.7 150.3 154.7 158.3 162.0 164.8 170.9 177.8 179.1 181.5 185.7

109.9 112.4
161.9 165.9 172.1 176.9 179.7 181.7

110.4 112.7
162.0 166.5 171.9 176.7 179.4 180.1

111.2 113.5 117.5 121.7 127.3 132.6 136.2 138.5 144.7 146.7 151.5 157.2 159.5 161.6 167.0 171.9 174.8 177.3 179.0

5.4% 2.1% 3.8% 3.3% 4.7% 4.4% 3.2% 1.9% 3.5% 2.3% 2.9% 3.4% 1.9% 1.4% 3.3% 2.9% 1.7% 1.4% 1.0%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics @ www.bls.gov

Inflation Heats-up In The Metro Area

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) for Atlanta increased 1.9 percent over the two months ending in June to a level of 185.7 (198284=100), not seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. For the 12 months ending in June, the CPI-U for Atlanta increased 2.3 percent after recording a twelve-month percent change of 0.1 percent in April 2004.
Over the two months, higher costs for housing and transportation accounted for most of the increase in the all items index. Energy costs advanced 17.5 percent, the largest bimonthly increase recorded since the index began in 1978. Excluding

food and energy, the CPI-U for Atlanta increased 0.2 percent in the two month period ending in June.
Over the past 12 months, the CPI-U for Atlanta has increased 2.3 percent. During that time period, energy costs advanced 18.4 percent. Excluding the cost of food and energy, the CPI-U for Atlanta decreased 0.2 percent in the 12 months ending in June.
The index for housing advanced 2.8 percent due to rising costs for fuels and utilities (17.9 percent). The rise in costs for fuel and utilities was the largest bimonthly increase since June 1998 when the index advanced 18.2 percent. Shelter costs rose 0.3 percent over the two month period after increasing 0.8 percent in the two months ending in April 2004. Costs for utility (piped) gas service increased 7.8 percent over the past two months.

After increasing 3.6 percent in the two months ending in April 2004, apparel costs have decreased 6.5 percent in the May-June pricing period. Over the past 12 months, apparel costs in Atlanta declined 10.7 percent, compared to a 5.5 percent decline recorded in the 12 months ending in June 2003.
The transportation index rose 3.6 percent due to rising gasoline costs. The index for gasoline advanced 12.0 percent over the past two months. Over the year, transportation costs have risen 8.4 percent.
Other indexes include the medical care index, which decreased 0.1 percent over the two months ending in June 2004. Over the year, the index for medical care rose 1.8 percent.

Georgia Department of Labor

Economic Indicators / Second Quarter 2004 9

Metro Atlanta Index of Economic Indicators
184.9
Leading indicators Coincident indicators
165.6

146.3

127.1

107.8
1995-96 = 100

88.5

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

Construction Shifts to The Commercial Industry

Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted.

***

Atlanta's Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators continued to show improvement by increasing two of the three months during the quarter. The Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) posted sizable gains in April and May, which were fueled by advances in the commercial construction sector and fewer initial unemployment claims. The LEI hit the 175.1 mark in April (+1.3%) then accelerated forward to 177.7 in May (+1.5%), before decelerating to 177.5 in June.
The increased value of nonresidential construction was the main culprit behind the indicator's momentum. Construction increased to $227.4 million (+45.0%) in April and May to $308.4 million (+35.6%) then proceeded north again in June

to $361.2 million (+17.2%). Initial unemployment claims declined in April (-7.4%) and May (-2.4%), before increasing in June (+11.7%). Residential construction declined in April (-24.0%), but managed to recover in May (+33.0%) before declining again in June (-22.6%). Construction seems to be shifting to the commercial sector as interest rates increase and residential housing cools off.
The Coincident Economic Indicator (CEI), which measures current conditions, posted modest gains during the quarter. The index moved to 175.8 in April (+0.5%) before declining to 175.6 in May (-0.1%) then moved forward again in June to 177.3

(+0.9%). Increases in retail employment and manufacturing hours worked managed to push the index ahead in April and June. Retailers increased employment in April and May (up 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively) expecting stronger sales heading into the summer. The manufacturing average workweek moved closer to 40 hours, helping to create more demand in the transportation and warehouse industry as retailers restocked inventory. More workers entered the jobforce in June moving the metro's unemployment rate higher, matching the state's rate of 4.6 percent.

10 Economic Indicators / Second Quarter 2004

Georgia Department of Labor

Metro Atlanta

Jun-2004

May-2004

Percent Percent

Change Change

May-2004 Apr-2004

to

to

Apr-2004 Jun-2004 May-2004

Nonagricultural Employment

2,168,490

Wholesale Employment

134,975

Retail Employment

242,003

Accommodation and Food Services Employment

183,889

Manufacturing Employment

168,969

Government Employment

287,825

Construction Employment

117,807

Trans., Warehousing and Utilities Employment

116,928

Financial Activities Employment

147,301

Professional and Business Services Employment

338,864

Hospital Services Employment

59,131

Social Assistance Employment

26,780

Manufacturing Workweek

38.2

Manufacturing Earnings

$642.17

Deflated Manufacturing Earnings

$338.52

Initial Unemployment Claims

12,438

Continued Unemployment Claims

165,826

Total Unemployment Rate ( not seasonally adjusted )

4.6

Insured Unemployment Rate

1.53%

MARTA Passengers

5,820,000

Cobb County Transit Passengers

230,281

Residential Construction (household units)

4,934

Nonresidential Construction (value)

$361,210,000

Deflated Nonresidential Construction

$261,200,000

Hotel Occupancy

62.0%

Average Hotel Room Rates

$95.52

Deflated Average Hotel Room Rate

$50.35

Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate

6.35%

Average 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate

5.77%

Average One-Year Adjustable Mortgage Rate

4.11%

2,169,862 135,423 242,182 183,720 170,446 288,063 119,283 116,068 147,013 338,549 58,363 26,716 37.7 $641.52 $339.25 11,131 129,378 3.9 1.56%
5,197,000 196,289 6,379
$308,416,000 $223,000,000
58.6% $94.01 $49.71 6.34% 5.76% 3.84%

2,175,732 135,859 241,390 185,138 171,218 290,988 118,857 116,058 146,935 340,993 57,910 26,449 38.2 $631.26 $335.78 11,404 124,975 3.6 1.52%
5,839,000 212,027 4,796
$227,424,000 $165,900,000
65.0% $95.17 $50.62 5.86% 5.22% 3.29%

-0.06% -0.33% -0.07% 0.09% -0.87% -0.08% -1.24% 0.74% 0.20% 0.09% 1.32% 0.24% 1.30% 0.10% -0.21% 11.74% 28.17%
11.99% 17.32% -22.66% 17.12% 17.13% 1.61% 1.29% -

-0.27% -0.32% 0.33% -0.77% -0.45% -1.01% 0.36% 0.01% 0.05% -0.72% 0.78% 1.01% -1.27% 1.62% 1.03% -2.40% 3.52%
-11.00% -7.42% 33.01% 35.61% 34.42% -1.22% -1.80% -

Georgia Department of Labor

Economic Indicators / Second Quarter 2004 11

MILLIONS

THOUSANDS

Metro Atlanta

2. 24 2. 20

2002-2003 2003-2004

2. 17

2. 13

2. 10
Nonagricultural Employment
2. 06
150

145

140 135

130
Wholesale Employment
125
270

260

250

240

230
Retail Employment

220

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

THOUSANDS

THOUSANDS

THOUSANDS

300 2002-2003 2003-2004
250

200 150

100
Accommodation and Food Services
50
220

200

180

160

140
Manufacturing Employment
120
310

300

290

280

270

Government Employment

260

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

Period
2002: Q3 Q4
2003: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2004: Q1 Apr May Jun

Nonag
2,166,405 2,171,614 2,160,724 2,150,461 2,162,940 2,160,913 2,176,898 2,175,732 2,169,862 2,168,490

Wholesale
139,903 140,712 137,432 136,427 136,355 136,152 136,495 135,859 135,423 134,975

Employment

Retail

Accom. & Food Services

246,147 245,580 240,992 241,539 242,916 237,683 240,187 241,390 242,182 242,003

168,635 170,700 174,820 175,425 177,603 181,055 184,638 185,138 183,720 183,889

Manufacturing
168,863 167,589 172,209 171,461 169,390 168,438 170,551 171,218 170,446 168,969

Government
285,049 286,414 289,447 285,599 287,179 289,100 291,849 290,988 288,063 287,825

THOUSANDS

12 Economic Indicators / Second Quarter 2004

Georgia Department of Labor

THOUSANDS

THOUSANDS

Metro Atlanta
132 2002-2003 2003-2004
126
120
114
108
Construction Employment
102
140
130
120
110
100
Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Employment
90
155

THOUSANDS

THOUSANDS

400 2002-2003 2003-2004
380
360
340
320
Professional and Business Services Employment
300
80
70
60
50
40
Hospital Services Employment
30
40

151

35

147

30

THOUSANDS

143

25

139
Financial Activities Employment

20
Social Assistance Employment

135

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

15

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

Period
2002 Q3 Q4
2003 :Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2004 Q1 Apr May Jun

Construction
114,541 114,879 115,209 113,535 115,036 118,626 120,719 118,857 119,283 117,807

Trans, Ware & Utilities
115,772 116,245 117,127 113,908 113,878 114,204 112,360 116,058 116,068 116,928

Employment

Financial Activities

Professional & Business Services

144,937 148,190 147,888 148,043 149,176 147,114 148,020 146,935 147,013 147,301

360,484 360,186 338,255 334,512 338,906 340,349 343,056 340,993 338,549 338,864

Hospital Services
55,074 56,032 56,879 56,542 57,389 57,867 57,678 57,910 58,363 59,131

Social Assistance
25,183 25,330 25,887 25,616 26,035 26,076 26,767 26,449 26,716 26,780

THOUSANDS

Georgia Department of Labor

Economic Indicators / Second Quarter 2004 13

HOURS

DOLLARS

Metro Atlanta

43. 0 41. 0

2002-2003 2003-2004

39. 0

37. 0

26.9 21.9 16.9 11.9

2002-2003 2003-2004

THOUSANDS

35. 0
Manufacturing Workweek
33. 0 $ 675
$ 635
$ 595
$ 555
$ 515
Manufacturing Earnings
$ 475
475

THOUSANDS

6.9
Initial Unemployment Claims
1.9
275
225
175
125
75
Continued Unemployment Claims
25
7. 0

420

365

310

255
Deflated Manufacturing Earnings

200

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

PERCENTAGES

6. 0

5. 0

4. 0

Unemployment Rate

3. 0

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

DOLLARS

Period
2002: Q3 Q4
2003: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2004: Q1 Apr May Jun

Work Week (hrs)
39.0 39.5 40.8 40.3 38.9 39.2 38.3 38.2 37.7 38.2

Manufacturing
Weekly Earnings
$593.49 604.99 568.10 568.80 543.54 560.37 605.62 631.26 641.52 642.17

Deflated Earnings
$328.62 333.94 310.45 309.70 294.52 303.56 325.14 335.78 339.25 338.52

14 Economic Indicators / Second Quarter 2004

Initial Claims
13,060 13,623 13,272 15,564 13,186 11,560 11,525 11,404 11,131 12,438

Unemployment
Continued Claims
173,034 163,621 158,677 178,406 161,618 146,319 126,715 124,975 129,378 165,826

Rate
5.6% 5.2% 4.7% 5.5% 4.8% 4.0% 3.8% 3.6% 3.9% 4.6%

Georgia Department of Labor

PERCENTAGES

MILLIONS

Metro Atlanta
2. 9 2002-2003 2003-2004
2. 5
2. 1
1. 7
1. 3
Insured Unemployment Rate
0. 9 7. 0
6. 5
6. 0
5. 5
5. 0
MARTA Passengers
4. 5
250

MILLIONS

HOUSEHOLD UNITS ( THOUSANDS )

7. 5 6. 6 5. 8 4. 9 4. 1 3. 2 $ 750 $ 600 $ 450 $ 300 $ 150 $0 $ 510

2002-2003 2003-2004
Residential Construction
Nonresidential Construction

225

$ 410

200

$ 310

MILLIONS

175

$ 210

150
Cobb Community Transit Passengers

$ 110
Deflated Nonresidential Construction

125

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

$ 10

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

THOUSANDS

Period

Insured Unemployment
Rate 2

Transit Passengers

MARTA 1

Cobb Community

2002: Q3

1.83%

5,361,200

178,376

Q4

1.84%

5,456,900

193,958

2003: Q1

1.81%

5,476,300

191,127

Q2

1.93%

5,570,400

190,276

Q3

1.75%

5,506,000

202,328

Q4

1.54%

5,577,700

217,738

2004: Q1

1.47%

5,538,100

216,195

Apr

1.52%

5,839,200

212,027

May

1.56%

5,196,700

196,289

Jun

1.53%

5,820,500

1 Data rounded 2 Rate at the end of each quarter, except for monthly rates.

3 Household units

230,281

Georgia Department of Labor

Residential 3
5,180 5,442 4,831 4,623 6,149 5,992 5,843 4,796 6,379 4,934

Construction
Nonresidential 1
$290,063,000 285,491,000 236,366,000 250,483,000 290,529,000 186,460,000 303,366,000 227,424,000 308,416,000 361,210,000

Deflated Non-res
$233,766,667 226,833,333 184,166,667 194,533,333 223,733,333 140,633,333 224,133,333 165,900,000 223,000,000 261,200,000

Economic Indicators / Second Quarter 2004 15

PERCENTAGES

DOLLARS

Metro Atlanta
75 2002-2003 2003-2004
69
63
56
50
Hotel Occupancy
44
$ 110
$ 100
$ 90
$ 80
$ 70
Average Hotel Room Rates
$ 60
$ 60

PERCENTAGES

PERCENTAGES

7. 60 7. 00

2002-2003 2003-2004

6. 40

5. 80

5. 20
Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
4. 60
7. 10

6. 48

5. 86

5. 24

4. 62
Average 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
4. 00
7. 41

$ 54

6. 21

PERCENTAGES

$ 48

5. 01

$ 42

3. 81

$ 36

$ 30

J

A

Deflated Average Hotel Room Rates

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

2. 61

Average One-Year Adjustable Mortgage Rates

1. 41

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

DOLLARS

Hotel Data

Period

Occupancy% 3

Room Rates 3

Deflated Room Rates

2002 Q3

57.7%

$75.75

$41.94

Q4

58.2%

77.10

42.56

2003 :Q1

56.8%

74.18

40.54

Q2

55.3%

72.16

39.29

Q3

63.4%

92.57

50.16

Q4

61.8%

93.24

50.51

2004 Q1

65.1%

93.48

50.18

Apr

65.0%

95.17

50.62

May

58.6%

94.01

49.71

Jun

62.0%

95.52

50.35

1 Rate does not include points 2 Mortgage rates are not seasonally adjusted
3 Hotel data compiled after July 2003 is not comparable to prior time periods.

16 Economic Indicators / Second Quarter 2004

3 0 - Ye a r Fixed 1
6.16% 6.00% 5.74% 5.22% 6.20% 5.91% 5.47% 5.86% 6.34% 6.35%

Mortgage Rates

1 5 - Ye a r Fixed 1,2

O n e - Ye a r Rate Adjustable1,2

5.58% 5.40% 5.10% 4.61% 5.47% 5.24% 4.78% 5.22% 5.76% 5.77%

4.20% 3.63% 3.43% 3.18% 3.66% 3.57% 3.07% 3.29% 3.84% 4.11%

Georgia Department of Labor

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