Georgia economic indicators, monthly report [Vol. 8, no. 9 (Nov. 2002)]

GEORGIA

Economic Indicators

A Monthly Report of Georgia State Labor Market and Economic Trends

November 2002

Volume 8, Issue 9

Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner

Georgia Economic Indicators
Monthly Report September 2002 Data
Volume 8, Issue 9 November 2002

Cover art: The Classic Center, Athens, Georgia by Huey J. Theus, Mableton, Georgia
Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177.
Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us

Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner

Equal Opportunity Employer/Programs - Auxiliary Aids and Services Available Upon Request to Individuals With Disabilities

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / November 2002

Introduction

G eorgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is designed to provide in a single publication data on a
number of indicators used to measure movement of the state's economy.
The indicators have been collected and disseminated for many years by state and federal governments and private agencies, but not under a single cover. Contributing agencies include Georgia's Department of Labor, Department of Revenue and Office of Secretary of State, the U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the F.W. Dodge Company.
All data except those contained in the U.S. Consumer Price Index chart on Page 3 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data that have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars.
Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually in February.
The purpose of the publications is to serve the business and professional communities, economic developers, economists, educators and others who have need for information on state economic trends.

Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning Georgia economic Indicators, Monthly Report and Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Bill Webb, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177.

Data Sources

Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Employment, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Retail Employment, Manufacturing Employment and Manufacturing Workweek -- Georgia Department of Labor
Consumer Price Index -- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, adapted from commentary by Michael Wald
New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue
New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State
Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce
Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group
* Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center

2 Georgia Economic Indicators / November 2002

Georgia Department of Labor

Consumer Price Index

Chart is not seasonally adjusted

YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC AVG

CPI RATE

1986 109.6 109.3 108.8 108.6 108.9 109.5 109.5 109.7 110.2 110.3 110.4 110.5 109.6 1.1%

1987 111.2 111.6 112.1 112.7 113.1 113.5 113.8 114.4 115.0 115.3 115.4 115.4 113.6 4.4%

1988 115.7 116.0 116.5 117.1 117.5 118.0 118.5 119.0 119.8 120.2 120.3 120.5 118.3 4.4%

1989 121.1 121.6 122.3 123.1 123.8 124.1 124.4 124.6 125.0 125.0 125.9 126.1 124.0 4.6%

1990 127.4 128.0 128.7 128.9 129.2 129.9 130.4 131.6 132.7 133.5 133.8 133.8 130.7 6.1%

1991 134.6 134.8 135.0 135.2 135.6 136.0 136.2 136.6 137.2 137.4 137.8 137.9 136.2 3.1%

1992 138.1 138.6 139.3 139.5 139.7 140.2 140.5 140.9 141.3 141.9 142.0 141.9 140.3 2.9%

1993 142.6 143.1 143.6 144.0 144.2 144.4 144.4 144.8 145.1 145.7 145.8 145.8 144.5 2.7%

1994 146.2 146.7 147.2 147.4 147.5 148.0 148.4 149.0 149.4 149.5 149.7 149.7 148.2 2.7%

1995 150.3 150.9 151.4 151.9 152.2 152.5 152.5 152.9 153.2 153.7 153.6 153.5 152.4 2.5%

1996 154.4 154.9 155.7 156.3 156.6 156.7 157.0 157.3 157.8 158.3 158.6 158.6 156.9 3.3%

1997 159.1 159.6 160.0 160.2 160.1 160.3 160.5 160.8 161.2 161.6 161.5 161.3 160.5 1.7%

1998 161.6 161.9 162.2 162.5 162.8 163.0 163.2 163.4 163.6 164.0 164.0 163.9 163.0 1.6%

1999 164.3 164.5 165.0 166.2 166.2 166.2 166.7 167.1 167.9 168.2 168.3 168.3 166.6 2.7%

2000 168.7 169.7 171.1 171.2 171.3 172.3 172.6 172.8 173.7 174.0 174.1 174.0 172.1 3.4%

2001 175.1 175.8 176.2 176.9 177.7 178.0 177.5 177.5 178.3 177.7 177.4 176.7 177.1 1.6%

2002 177.1 177.8 178.8 179.8 179.8 179.9 180.1 180.7 181.0

* Seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR)

Source: U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS AT WWW.BLS.GOV

CPI rises 2.5 percent in third quarter*

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in September, before seasonal adjustment, as recently reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The September level of 181.0 (198284=100) was 1.5 percent higher than its level in September 2001.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) also rose 0.2 percent in September, prior to seasonal adjustment. The September level of 177.0 was 1.3 percent higher than the index in September 2001.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U rose 0.2 percent in September, following an increase of 0.3 percent in August. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U rose 0.1 percent after increasing 0.3 percent in August. Smaller increases in the indexes for shelter and apparel were largely responsible for the deceleration in September.
Consumer prices rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 2.5

percent in the third quarter. This followed increases in the first and second quarters at annual rates of 3.0 and 2.5 percent, respectively. This brings the year-to-date annual rate to 2.6 percent and compares with an increase of 1.6 percent in all of 2001.
Excluding food and energy, the CPIU advanced at a 2.3 percent SAAR in the third quarter, following increases at rates of 2.1 and 1.9 percent in the first two quarters of 2002. The advance at a 2.1 percent SAAR for the first nine months of 2002 compares with a 2.7 percent rise in all of 2001.
The index for housing rose 0.1 percent in September, following a 0.3 percent rise in August. Shelter costs, which rose 0.4 percent in August, increased 0.1 percent in September. The index for fuels and utilities rose 0.4 percent in September. The index for fuel oil increased 1.9 percent in September and has risen 10.0 percent in the first nine months of 2002. In September, the indexes for natural gas

and for electricity rose 1.0 and 0.1 percent, respectively.
The transportation index rose 0.3 percent in September. The index for gasoline increased for the fourth consecutive month, up 1.0 percent in September. The index for new vehicles increased 0.5 percent in September, its first monthly advance since last December. New vehicle prices are 1.1 percent lower than in September 2001. Airline fares declined 2.1 percent in September and are 5.2 percent lower than a year ago.
The medical care index rose 0.3 percent in September to a level 4.6 percent above its level a year ago. The index for medical care commodities increased 0.2 percent. The index for medical care services rose 0.4 percent in September. Charges for professional services were virtually unchanged, while those for hospital and related services increased 0.7 percent.

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / November 2002 3

Georgia Index of Economic Indicators

207.5

Leading indicators Coincident indicators

180.9

154.3

127.6

101.0

1987-88 = 100

74.4

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

Georgia's Economic Indicators Stall in September

Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted.

* according to the NBER the national recession officially started in March 2001.

***

The Georgia Department of Labor's Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), increased a modest 0.9 percent to 180.5 in September, from a revised 178.7 in August, after seasonal adjustment.
The leading indicator moved ahead in September after climbing in May, June and July before being revised lower in August. Nonresidential construction led the leading indicators in September with a 41.7 percent surge in the value of commercial construction, reversing August's double-digit decline. Residential construction also increased in September, permits issued for new construction were up 10.2 percent.
Initial jobless claims (up 10.4 percent), motor vehicle sales (down

Recent 12 Months

187.6

Leading Coincident

180.2

172.7

165.2

157.7

1987-88 =100

150.2

ON

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8.7 percent) and new business corporations filed with the state (down 1.7 percent) reduced gains in the construction sector.
The Index of Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI), which measures current economic conditions, declined 0.2 percent in

September to 158.3 from a upwardly revised 158.8 in August, after seasonal adjustment.
State revenue managed to increase ( up 11.8 percent in September) for the second consecutive month, despite a soft economy. Nonagricultural employment remained flat as retail employment (down 0.5 percent in September) declined for the second consecutive month. Georgia's unemployment rate increased slightly in September to 4.9 percent as the nation's jobless rate dropped to 5.4 percent.
Georgia's economy continues to struggle after 18 months of economic difficulties*. No definite signs of a strong recovery have emerged so far.

4 Georgia Economic Indicators / November 2002

Georgia Department of Labor

Data Summary

September 2002

Georgia Economic Indicators Seasonally Adjusted

Sep 2002

Aug 2002

Sep 2001

Percent Change
Aug 2002 to
Sep 2002

Percent Change
Sep 2001 to
Sep 2002

Nonagricultural Employment

3,860,319

3,860,451

3,935,987

-0.00

-1.92

Retail Employment

691,347

695,370

711,789

-0.58

-2.87

Manufacturing Employment

537,435

537,333

541,888

0.02

-0.82

Manufacturing Workweek

43.7

43.5

41.2

0.67

6.08

Weekly Manufacturing Earnings

$568.33

$561.90

$537.84

1.15

5.67

Deflated Manufacturing Earnings

$314.00

$310.96

$301.65

0.98

4.09

Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled

9,830

10,412

7,642

-5.59

28.63

Initial Unemployment Claims

46,420

42,048

50,093

10.40

-7.33

Continued Unemployment Claims

354,363

285,241

272,945

24.23

29.83

Unemployment Rate (not seasonally adjusted)

4.8%

4.7%

4.2%

Insured Unemployment Rate

1.95%

1.77%

1.72%

New Motor Vehicle Sales

45,953

50,365

49,277

-8.76

-6.74

Residential Construction (building permits)

7,494

6,795

6,920

10.28

8.30

Nonresidential Construction (dollar value) $476,951,000 $336,173,000 $529,509,000

41.88

-9.93

Deflated Nonresidential Construction $390,943,400 $275,777,700 $441,257,500

41.76 -11.40

New Business Corporations

4,934

5,024

4,161

-1.79

18.58

Total State Revenues

$1,069,718,000 $956,127,000 $1,062,069,000

11.88

0.72

Deflated Total State Revenues

$591,004,400 $529,124,000 $595,664,000

11.69

-0.78

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / November 2002 5

Georgia Economic Indicators

Nonagricultural Employment

4.03

2000-2001

2001-2002

3.99

3.94

3.90

3.85

3.81

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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep

2000-2001
3,971,120 3,973,532 3,979,488 3,969,680 3,977,192 3,983,939 3,982,787 3,974,909 3,971,332 3,960,068 3,945,137 3,935,987

2001-2002
3,942,193 3,906,082 3,892,867 3,872,285 3,880,687 3,873,452 3,889,756 3,887,840 3,880,325 3,869,148 3,860,451 3,860,319

MILLIONS

Retail Employment
731.8 2000-2001
721.8

2001-2002

711.8

THOUSANDS

701.8

691.9

681.9

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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep

2000-2001
716,184 719,345 721,436 718,082 717,582 719,611 720,263 720,417 718,372 713,422 713,207 711,789

2001-2002
717,621 712,091 711,426 706,291 702,564 700,432 708,212 701,508 696,824 700,238 695,370 691,347

Manufacturing Employment

598

2000-2001

2001-2002

581

565

THOUSANDS

548

532

515

ON

DJ

FMAM

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6 Georgia Economic Indicators / November 2002

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

2000-2001
576,410 574,233 572,476 568,517 565,865 563,555 556,407 551,136 547,482 547,243 543,104 541,888

2001-2002
541,929 533,672 538,342 537,895 539,768 535,800 537,020 538,761 540,368 536,643 537,333 537,435

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators

Manufacturing Workweek

45.2

2000-2001

2001-2002

43.7

42.1

HOURS

40.6

39.1

37.6

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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

2000-2001
41.3 41.2 41.1 41.0 40.4 40.5 39.2 40.2 40.5 40.6 41.3 41.2

2001-2002
40.6 40.6 40.3 42.8 41.8 42.9 43.0 43.1 43.4 42.4 43.5 43.7

Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings

$584

2000-2001

2001-2002

$567

DOLLARS

$549

$532

$515

$498

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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

2000-2001
$545.68 547.03 538.96 533.25 530.49 529.46 513.66 524.54 532.20 531.66 536.72 537.84

2001-2002
$526.74 523.65 526.39 555.99 558.71 564.83 558.04 559.24 563.70 550.42 561.90 568.33

Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings

$329 $319

2000-2001

2001-2002

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month 2000-2001

2001-2002

DOLLARS

Oct

$313.61

$296.42

$309

Nov

314.20

295.18

Dec

309.75

297.90

$299 $289 $279

Jan

304.54

313.94

Feb

301.76

314.24

Mar

300.49

315.90

Apr

290.37

310.37

May

295.18

311.03

Jun

298.99

313.34

Jul

299.53

305.62

Aug

302.38

310.96

Sep

301.65

314.00

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Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / November 2002 7

Georgia Economic Indicators

Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled*

18.5

2000-2001

2001-2002

15.0

THOUSANDS

11.6

8.1

4.7

1.2

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* Jobs listed with the Georgia Department of Labor

Initial Unemployment Claims

95.9

2000-2001

2001-2002

77.9

THOUSANDS

59.9

41.9

23.9

5.9

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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

2000-2001 13,509 12,513 11,504 11,144 11,717 11,033 10,485 9,536 8,113 8,655 8,801 7,642

2001-2002 7,647 7,307 6,863 8,463 9,031 10,088 10,184 9,923 9,924 10,766 10,412 9,830

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

2000-2001 36,886 43,958 44,720 50,402 46,055 47,300 52,785 58,261 53,061 59,542 49,355 50,093

2001-2002 73,209 64,401 47,878 55,134 43,148 42,701 50,568 48,023 44,197 44,364 42,048 46,420

Continued Unemployment Claims

485.6

2000-2001

2001-2002

399.9

THOUSANDS

314.3

228.6

142.9

57.3

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8 Georgia Economic Indicators / November 2002

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

2000-2001
181,147 165,718 164,512 211,730 196,795 185,827 258,887 242,095 251,027 282,298 263,622 272,945

2001-2002
370,414 324,446 360,381 316,501 326,290 299,206 388,590 308,224 306,589 309,959 285,241 354,363

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate *
5.9 2000-2001
5.2

2001-2002

PERCENTAGES

4.6

4.0

3.3

2.7

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* Not Seasonally Adjusted

Insured Unemployment Rate

2.76

2000-2001

2001-2002

2.26

PERCENTAGES

1.76

1.26

0.76

0.26

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Monthly Data
Not Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep

2000-2001
3.8 % 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.6 4.5 4.3 4.0 4.2

2001-2002
4.4 % 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.2 4.5 5.2 4.9 4.7 4.8

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep

2000-2001
0.94 % 1.03 1.21 1.19 1.23 1.29 1.35 1.48 1.56 1.73 1.64 1.72

2001-2002
1.92 % 2.03 2.09 2.22 2.04 2.05 2.09 1.97 1.90 1.71 1.77 1.95

New Motor Vehicle Sales

63

2000-2001

2001-2002

56

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month

2000-2001

2001-2002

THOUSANDS

Oct

45,510

49,573

50

Nov

44,190

48,849

Dec

37,137

37,638

Jan

52,597

46,262

Feb

42,961

41,086

43

M ar

47,370

44,279

Apr

46,979

48,167

M ay

48,748

48,946

37

Jun

43,724

41,558

Jul

47,397

49,514

Aug

49,695

50,365

30

Sep

49,277

45,953

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Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / November 2002 9

Georgia Economic Indicators

Residential Construction

10,277

2000-2001

9,388

2001-2002

HOUSEHOLD UNITS

8,499

7,609

6,720

5,831

OND

J

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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

2000-2001 7,110 7,265 7,293 8,434 7,897 7,192 7,566 8,313 9,129 8,400 7,768 6,920

2001-2002 7,370 6,928 6,997 7,711 7,698 8,118 8,138 9,273 8,459 9,432 6,795 7,494

Nonresidential Construction

$810

2000-2001

2001-2002

$672

$534

MILLIONS

$396

$258

$120

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Deflated Nonresidential Construction

$720

2000-2001

2001-2002

$591

$462

MILLIONS

$333

$204

$75

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10 Georgia Economic Indicators / November 2002

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

2000-2001
$544,494,000 372,176,000 485,732,000 565,448,000 461,292,000 431,267,000 572,387,000 432,484,000 475,670,000 496,336,000 471,396,000 529,509,000

2001-2002
$512,544,000 619,902,000 323,839,000 501,561,000 525,956,000 265,245,000 495,148,000 424,528,000 490,410,000 504,031,000 336,173,000 476,951,000

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep

2000-2001
$467,778,400 318,916,900 414,801,000 479,599,700 389,934,100 363,631,500 482,213,100 363,431,900 398,050,200 415,691,800 393,814,500 441,257,500

2001-2002
$424,291,400 516,585,000 269,416,800 413,829,200 433,957,100 218,668,600 408,201,200 348,831,600 400,989,400 413,479,100 275,777,700 390,943,400

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators

New Business Corporations*

7,123

2000-2001

2001-2002

6,068

CHARTERS

5,014

3,959

2,905

1,850

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Total State Revenues

$1,683

2000-2001

$1,466

FMAM

J

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* Includes limited liability companies

2001-2002

$1,250

MILLIONS

$1,033

$817

$600

OND

J

FMAMJ

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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Ap r M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep

2000-2001 4,654 4,806 4,611 4,859 4,544 5,039 4,513 4,718 4,721 4,442 5,605 4,161

2001-2002 4,742 2,931 3,039 5,348 5,085 5,617 4,129 6,090 4,521 5,202 5,024 4,934

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep

2000-2001
$1,181,132,000 1,132,895,000 1,133,560,000 1,342,191,000 1,124,170,000
926,149,000 989,987,000 1,428,144,000 1,226,480,000 1,062,372,000 1,099,959,000 1,062,069,000

2001-2002
$1,092,639,000 1,086,140,000 1,067,092,000 1,253,033,000 1,049,479,000
829,956,000 890,580,000 1,379,021,000 1,192,921,000 926,854,000 956,127,000 1,069,718,000

Deflated Total State Revenues

$940

2000-2001

2001-2002

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

MILLIONS

$823

Month

2000-2001

2001-2002

$706 $589 $472 $355

Oct

$678,811,500 $614,878,400

Nov

650,715,100

612,254,800

Dec

651,471,300

603,900,400

Jan

766,528,300

707,528,500

Feb

639,459,600

590,258,200

M ar

525,623,700

464,181,200

Apr

559,630,900

495,317,000

M ay

803,682,600

766,975,000

Jun

689,033,700

663,102,300

Jul

598,519,400

514,633,000

Aug

619,695,200

529,124,000

Sep

595,664,000

591,004,400

O

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J

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Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / November 2002 11

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