Georgia economic indicators, monthly report [Vol. 8, no. 7 (Sept. 2002)]

GEORGIA

Economic

Indicators

A Monthly Report of Georgia State Labor Market and Economic Trends

September 2002

Volume 8, Issue 7

Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner

Georgia Economic Indicators
Monthly Report July 2002 Data
Volume 8, Issue 7 September 2002

Cover art: Little Cumberland Island Lighthouse, Georgia by Huey J. Theus, Mableton, Georgia
Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177.
Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us

Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner

Equal Opportunity Employer/Programs - Auxiliary Aids and Services Available Upon Request to Individuals With Disabilities

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / September 2002

Introduction

G eorgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is designed to provide in a single publication data on a
number of indicators used to measure movement of the state's economy.
The indicators have been collected and disseminated for many years by state and federal governments and private agencies, but not under a single cover. Contributing agencies include Georgia's Department of Labor, Department of Revenue and Office of Secretary of State, the U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the F.W. Dodge Company.
All data except those contained in the U.S. Consumer Price Index chart on Page 3 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data that have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars.
Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually in February.
The purpose of the publications is to serve the business and professional communities, economic developers, economists, educators and others who have need for information on state economic trends.

Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning Georgia economic Indicators, Monthly Report and Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Bill Webb, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177.

Data Sources

Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Employment, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Retail Employment, Manufacturing Employment and Manufacturing Workweek -- Georgia Department of Labor
Consumer Price Index -- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, adapted from commentary by Michael Wald
New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue
New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State
Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce
Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group
* Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center

2 Georgia Economic Indicators / September 2002

Georgia Department of Labor

Consumer Price Index

YEAR 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

JAN
109.6 111.2 115.7 121.1 127.4 134.6 138.1 142.6 146.2 150.3 154.4 159.1 161.6 164.3 168.7 175.1 177.1

FEB
109.3 111.6 116.0 121.6 128.0 134.8 138.6 143.1 146.7 150.9 154.9 159.6 161.9 164.5 169.7 175.8 177.8

MAR
108.8 112.1 116.5 122.3 128.7 135.0 139.3 143.6 147.2 151.4 155.7 160.0 162.2 165.0 171.1 176.2 178.8

APR MAY
108.6 108.9 112.7 113.1 117.1 117.5 123.1 123.8 128.9 129.2 135.2 135.6 139.5 139.7 144.0 144.2 147.4 147.5 151.9 152.2 156.3 156.6 160.2 160.1 162.5 162.8 166.2 166.2 171.2 171.3 176.9 177.7 179.8 179.8

JUN
109.5 113.5 118.0 124.1 129.9 136.0 140.2 144.4 148.0 152.5 156.7 160.3 163.0 166.2 172.3 178.0 179.9

JUL AUG
109.5 109.7 113.8 114.4 118.5 119.0 124.4 124.6 130.4 131.6 136.2 136.6 140.5 140.9 144.4 144.8 148.4 149.0 152.5 152.9 157.0 157.3 160.5 160.8 163.2 163.4 166.7 167.1 172.6 172.8 177.5 177.5 180.1

SEP
110.2 115.0 119.8 125.0 132.7 137.2 141.3 145.1 149.4 153.2 157.8 161.2 163.6 167.9 173.7 178.3

OCT
110.3 115.3 120.2 125.0 133.5 137.4 141.9 145.7 149.5 153.7 158.3 161.6 164.0 168.2 174.0 177.7

Chart is not seasonally adjusted

NOV DEC AVG

CPI RATE

110.4 110.5 109.6

1.1%

115.4 115.4 113.6

4.4%

120.3 120.5 118.3

4.4%

125.9 126.1 124.0

4.6%

133.8 133.8 130.7

6.1%

137.8 137.9 136.2

3.1%

142.0 141.9 140.3

2.9%

145.8 145.8 144.5

2.7%

149.7 149.7 148.2

2.7%

153.6 153.5 152.4

2.5%

158.6 158.6 156.9

3.3%

161.5 161.3 160.5

1.7%

164.0 163.9 163.0

1.6%

168.3 168.3 166.6

2.7%

174.1 174.0 172.1

3.4%

177.4 176.7 177.1

1.6%

U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS

CPI increases 0.1 percent in June and July

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in July, before seasonal adjustment, as recently reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. The July level of 180.1 (1982-84=100) was 1.5 percent higher than its level in July 2001.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) also rose 0.1 percent in July, prior to seasonal adjustment. The July level of 176.1 was 1.3 percent higher than the index in July 2001. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U increased 0.1 percent in July, the same as in June.
During the first seven months of 2002, the CPI-U rose at a 2.5 percent seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). This compares with an increase of 1.6 percent for all of 2001. The index for energy, which declined 13.0 percent in 2001,

increased at a 14.5 percent SAAR in the first seven months of 2002.
Petroleum-based energy costs increased at a 36.1 percent annual rate, while charges for energy services declined at a 1.6 percent annual rate. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U advanced at a 2.0 percent SAAR in the first seven months, following a 2.7 percent rise in all of 2001.
The index for housing rose 0.1 percent in July. Shelter costs, which increased 0.1 percent in June, rose 0.2 percent in July. The index for fuels and utilities declined 0.2 percent in July. The indexes for electricity and for natural gas declined 0.5 and 0.1 percent, respectively, while the index for fuel oil rose 0.9 percent.
The transportation index rose 0.3 percent in July. The index for gasoline rose 1.5 percent in July after increasing 0.4 percent in June. Airline fares declined for the

second consecutive month, down 1.3 percent in July, after advancing in each of the first five months of 2002. During the last 12 months, the index for airline fares has decreased 5.5 percent.
The index for apparel declined 1.0 percent in July, following a 0.9 percent decrease in June. ( Prior to seasonal adjustment, apparel prices fell 3.3 percent, reflecting seasonal price discounting of spring-summer apparel.)
The medical care index rose 0.7 percent in July to a level 4.9 percent above its level a year ago. The index for medical care commodities increased 0.4 percent. The index for medical care services rose 0.7 percent in July. Charges for professional services rose 0.8 percent and those for hospital and related services increased 0.4 percent.

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / September 2002 3

Georgia Index of Economic Indicators

197.7

Leading indicators Coincident indicators

173.0

148.3

123.7

99.0
1987-88 = 100

74.4

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

Georgia's Leading Economic Indicator sets three month trend

Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted.

***

The Georgia Department of Labor's Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) increased 0.5 percent in July to 178.8 from a revised 177.9 in June, after seasonal adjustment. The index has grown 2.1 percent since January 2002 compared to 0.1 percent for the same period in 2001.
The leading indicator continued its upward movement setting a three month trend that has not been seen since late 2000. Recovery prospects look a little clearer as we enter the second half of 2002.
All of the sectors in the leading indicator advanced in July except the number of first-time claims for jobless benefits, which edged up slightly 0.3 percent, the equivalent of 167 claims. Sales of new motor

Recent 12 Months

184.7

Leading Coincident

177.8

170.9

164.0

157.1

1987-88 =100

150.2

A

SON

D

J

F

MAM

J

J

vehicles led the LEI in July, up 19.1 percent, as car makers revert back to zero-percent financing. Applications for new corporate charters filed with the state increased 15.0 percent over the month. Permits for residential

construction increased 11.5 percent in July reversing June's decline. The value of nonresidential construction increased 2.7 percent.
The Index of Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI) decreased 0.2 percent in July to 159.0, from a revised 159.4 in June, after seasonal adjustment.
Declines in state revenue and manufacturing hours worked moved the CEI lower in July. State revenue declined 22.3 percent during the month. Manufacturing hours worked remained strong despite a 2.5 percent decline in July. The state's unemployment rate declined to 4.9 percent in July as the nation's jobless rate remained at 6.0 percent.

4 Georgia Economic Indicators / September 2002

Georgia Department of Labor

Data Summary

July 2002

Georgia Economic Indicators Seasonally Adjusted

Jul 2002

Jun 2002

Jul 2001

Percent Change
Jun 2002 to
Jul 2002

Percent Change
Jul 2001 to
Jul 2002

Nonagricultural Employment

3,877,175

3,880,325

3,960,068

-0.08

-2.09

Retail Employment

701,445

696,824

713,422

0.66

-1.68

Manufacturing Employment

540,149

540,368

547,243

-0.04

-1.30

Manufacturing Workweek

42.3

43.4

40.6

-2.54

4.21

Weekly Manufacturing Earnings

$549.54

$563.70

$531.66

-2.51

3.36

Deflated Manufacturing Earnings

$305.13

$313.34

$299.53

-2.62

1.87

Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled

10,766

9,924

8,655

8.48

24.39

Initial Unemployment Claims

44,364

44,197

59,542

0.38 -25.49

Continued Unemployment Claims

309,959

306,589

282,298

1.10

9.80

Unemployment Rate (not seasonally adjusted)

4.9%

5.2%

4.3%

Insured Unemployment Rate

1.71%

1.90%

1.73%

New Motor Vehicle Sales

49,514

41,558

47,397

19.14

4.47

Residential Construction (building permits)

9,432

8,459

8,400

11.50

12.29

Nonresidential Construction (dollar value) $504,031,000 $490,410,000 $496,336,000

2.78

1.55

Deflated Nonresidential Construction $412,801,800 $400,334,700 $415,691,800

3.11

-0.70

New Business Corporations

5,202

4,521

4,442

15.05

17.10

Total State Revenues

$926,854,000 $1,192,921,000 $1,062,372,000

-22.30 -12.76

Deflated Total State Revenues

$514,633,000 $663,102,300 $598,519,400

-22.39 -14.02

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / September 2002 5

Georgia Economic Indicators

Nonagricultural Employment

4.04

2000-2001

2001-2002

3.99

3.95

3.91

3.86

3.82

A

S

O

ND

J

F

MAM

J

J

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul

2000-2001
3,968,522 3,970,521 3,971,120 3,973,532 3,979,488 3,969,680 3,977,192 3,983,939 3,982,787 3,974,909 3,971,332 3,960,068

2001-2002
3,945,137 3,935,987 3,942,193 3,906,082 3,892,867 3,872,285 3,880,687 3,873,452 3,889,756 3,887,840 3,880,325 3,877,175

MILLIONS

Retail Employment
729.8 2000-2001
721.3

2001-2002

712.7

THOUSANDS

704.1

695.6

687.0

A

S

OND

J

FMAM

J

J

Manufacturing Employment

605

2000-2001

2001-2002

587

569

THOUSANDS

551

533

515

AS

ON

DJ

FMAM

J

J

6 Georgia Economic Indicators / September 2002

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul

2000-2001
716,620 716,140 716,184 719,345 721,436 718,082 717,582 719,611 720,263 720,417 718,372 713,422

2001-2002
713,207 711,789 717,621 712,091 711,426 706,291 702,564 700,432 708,212 701,508 696,824 701,445

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

2000-2001
582,507 579,493 576,410 574,233 572,476 568,517 565,865 563,555 556,407 551,136 547,482 547,243

2001-2002
543,104 541,888 541,929 533,672 538,342 537,895 539,768 535,800 537,020 538,761 540,368 540,149

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators

Manufacturing Workweek

44.6

2000-2001

2001-2002

43.3

41.9

HOURS

40.6

39.2

37.9

ASON

D

J

FMAM

J

J

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

2000-2001
41.2 41.1 41.3 41.2 41.1 41.0 40.4 40.5 39.2 40.2 40.5 40.6

2001-2002
41.3 41.2 40.6 40.6 40.3 42.8 41.8 42.9 43.0 43.1 43.4 42.3

Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings

$584

2000-2001

2001-2002

$567

DOLLARS

$549

$532

$515

$498

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

2000-2001
$538.17 538.92 545.68 547.03 538.96 533.25 530.49 529.46 513.66 524.54 532.20 531.66

2001-2002
$536.72 537.84 526.74 523.65 526.39 555.99 558.71 564.83 558.04 559.24 563.70 549.54

Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings

$329

2000-2001

2001-2002

$319

DOLLARS

$309

$299

$289

$279

A

SO

N

D

J

F

MA

M

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Georgia Department of Labor

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month 2000-2001 2001-2002

Aug

$311.44

$302.38

Sep

310.26

301.65

Oct

313.61

296.42

Nov

314.20

295.18

Dec

309.75

297.90

Jan

304.54

313.94

Feb

301.76

314.24

Mar

300.49

315.90

Apr

290.37

310.37

May

295.18

311.03

Jun

298.99

313.34

Jul

299.53

305.13

J Georgia Economic Indicators / September 2002 7

Georgia Economic Indicators

Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled*

22.6

2000-2001

2001-2002

18.3

THOUSANDS

14.0

9.8

5.5

1.2

A

SOND

J

F MAM

J

J

* Jobs listed with the Georgia Department of Labor

Initial Unemployment Claims

99.6

2000-2001

2001-2002

80.9

THOUSANDS

62.1

43.4

24.6

5.9

A

SOND

J

F MAM

J

J

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

2000-2001 16,105 14,415 13,509 12,513 11,504 11,144 11,717 11,033 10,485 9,536 8,113 8,655

2001-2002 8,801 7,642 7,647 7,307 6,863 8,463 9,031 10,088 10,184 9,923 9,924 10,766

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

2000-2001 33,237 34,242 36,886 43,958 44,720 50,402 46,055 47,300 52,785 58,261 53,061 59,542

2001-2002 49,355 50,093 73,209 64,401 47,878 55,134 43,148 42,701 50,568 48,023 44,197 44,364

Continued Unemployment Claims

485.6

2000-2001

2001-2002

392.5

THOUSANDS

299.4

206.2

113.1

20.0

A

SOND

J

F

MAM

J

J

8 Georgia Economic Indicators / September 2002

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

2000-2001
148,693 151,634 181,147 165,718 164,512 211,730 196,795 185,827 258,887 242,095 251,027 282,298

2001-2002
263,622 272,945 370,414 324,446 360,381 316,501 326,290 299,206 388,590 308,224 306,589 309,959

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate *
5.9 2000-2001
5.2

2001-2002

PERCENTAGES

4.6

4.0

3.3

2.7

ASOND

J

F

MAM

J

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* Not Seasonally Adjusted

Insured Unemployment Rate

2.76

2000-2001

2001-2002

2.26

PERCENTAGES

1.76

1.26

0.76

0.26

AS

ON

D

J

F M AM

J

J

Monthly Data
Not Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul

2000-2001
3.8 % 3.9 3.8 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.6 4.5 4.3

2001-2002
4.0 % 4.2 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.2 4.5 5.2 4.9

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul

2000-2001
0.97 % 0.95 0.94 1.03 1.21 1.19 1.23 1.29 1.35 1.48 1.56 1.73

2001-2002
1.64 % 1.72 1.92 2.03 2.09 2.22 2.04 2.05 2.09 1.97 1.90 1.71

New Motor Vehicle Sales

63

2000-2001

2001-2002

56

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month

2000-2001

2001-2002

THOUSANDS

Aug

53,062

49,695

50

Sep

45,375

49,277

Oct

45,510

49,573

Nov

44,190

48,849

Dec

37,137

37,638

43

Jan

52,597

46,262

Feb

42,961

41,086

M ar

47,370

44,279

37

Apr

46,979

48,167

M ay

48,748

48,946

Jun

43,724

41,558

30

Jul

47,397

49,514

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / September 2002 9

Georgia Economic Indicators

Residential Construction

10,277

2000-2001

9,388

2001-2002

HOUSEHOLD UNITS

8,499

7,609

6,720

5,831

A SO

ND

J

F MA M J

J

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

2000-2001 7,442 7,590 7,110 7,265 7,293 8,434 7,897 7,192 7,566 8,313 9,129 8,400

2001-2002 7,768 6,920 7,370 6,928 6,997 7,711 7,698 8,118 8,138 9,273 8,459 9,432

Nonresidential Construction

$810

2000-2001

2001-2002

$672

$534

MILLIONS

$396

$258

$120

A

SO

ND

J

F

MAM

J

J

Deflated Nonresidential Construction

$720

2000-2001

2001-2002

$591

$462

MILLIONS

$333

$204

$75

A

S

OND

J

F

MAM

J

J

10 Georgia Economic Indicators / September 2002

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

2000-2001
$405,932,000 567,269,000 544,494,000 372,176,000 485,732,000 565,448,000 461,292,000 431,267,000 572,387,000 432,484,000 475,670,000 496,336,000

2001-2002
$471,396,000 529,509,000 512,544,000 619,902,000 323,839,000 501,561,000 525,956,000 265,245,000 495,148,000 424,528,000 490,410,000 504,031,000

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul

2000-2001
$350,545,800 489,446,900 467,778,400 318,916,900 414,801,000 479,599,700 389,934,100 363,631,500 482,213,100 363,431,900 398,050,200 415,691,800

2001-2002
$393,814,500 441,257,500 424,291,400 516,585,000 269,416,800 413,829,200 433,957,100 218,668,600 407,864,900 348,259,200 400,334,700 412,801,800

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators

New Business Corporations*

7,123

2000-2001

2001-2002

6,068

CHARTERS

5,014

3,959

2,905

1,850 ASON

Total State Revenues

$1,683

2000-2001

$1,466

DJ 2001-2002

F

M

AM

J

J

* Includes limited liability companies

$1,250

MILLIONS

$1,033

$817

$600

ASOND

J

F MAM

J

J

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Ap r M ay Jun Jul

2000-2001 4,858 4,271 4,654 4,806 4,611 4,859 4,544 5,039 4,513 4,718 4,721 4,442

2001-2002 5,605 4,161 4,742 2,931 3,039 5,348 5,085 5,617 4,129 6,090 4,521 5,202

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul

2000-2001
$1,180,082,000 1,135,949,000 1,181,132,000 1,132,895,000 1,133,560,000 1,342,191,000 1,124,170,000
926,149,000 989,987,000 1,428,144,000 1,226,480,000 1,062,372,000

2001-2002
$1,099,959,000 1,062,069,000 1,092,639,000 1,086,140,000 1,067,092,000 1,253,033,000 1,049,479,000
829,956,000 890,580,000 1,379,021,000 1,192,921,000 926,854,000

Deflated Total State Revenues

$940

2000-2001

2001-2002

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

MILLIONS

$823

Month

2000-2001

2001-2002

$706 $589 $472 $355

Aug

$682,917,800 $619,695,200

Sep

653,971,800

595,664,000

Oct

678,811,500

614,878,400

Nov

650,715,100

612,254,800

Dec

651,471,300

603,900,400

Jan

766,528,300

707,528,500

Feb

639,459,600

590,258,200

M ar

525,623,700

464,181,200

Apr

559,630,900

495,317,000

M ay

803,682,600

766,975,000

Jun

689,033,700

663,102,300

Jul

598,519,400

514,633,000

ASON

D

J

FMAM

J

J

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / September 2002 11

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